Let's check it out.
I defined a breakout season to be a season in which the player:
Using these specifications, the 1999 breakout players were:
Now we proceed with the usual plan: find other players who had similar seasons, and see what happened to them the following year. First the running backs:
---- Fant. Pts. -----
LastName FirstName YEAR PREV Brkout NEXT EXP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Anderson Jamal 1996 26 189 189 3
Bennett Edgar 1993 31 161 171 2
Brown Gary 1993 15 172 114 3
Hearst Garrison 1995 28 143 104 2
Heyward Craig 1994 34 159 191 7
Hoard Leroy 1994 58 188 65 5
Holmes Priest 1996 0 169 73 2
Johnson Anthony 1996 41 167 58 7
Kaufman Napoleon 1997 114 218 123 3
Levens Dorsey 1997 139 253 60 4
Loville Derek 1995 13 217 61 6
Means Natrone 1994 118 231 108 2
Murrell Adrian 1995 24 144 175 3
Parmalee Bernie 1994 2 154 182 3
Staley Duce 1998 5 186 193 2
Thomas Thurman 1989 121 263 261 2
Williams Harvey 1994 19 179 203 4
Let me explain all that. The year listed is the player's breakout year.
The PREV column tells you how many points he scored the year
before his breakout. Under Brkout, you'll see the player's
total for his breakout year, and the NEXT column lists his
total the next year. Finally, just for fun, I added the EXP
column, which tells which year of the player's career his breakout
season was. For example, Harvey Williams breakout season (1994) came
in his fourth year.
OK, now that we understand what it means, we can break it all down. First the summary: in their breakout seasons, these backs averaged 188 fantasy points. In the following season, they averaged 137 points, a decrease of 27%. If you've read many of my other articles, though, you know that an overall decline is to be expected of any group of players who perform well in a given year. So the question is: is that a typical decrease, or is it more of a thud? If you look at all backs who scored over 140 fantasy points in a given year, they will decline by about 15ext year. So it does appear that the dropoff here is larger than expected. Let's divide them into groups and take a closer look:
Heyward Craig 1994 34 159 191 7 Murrell Adrian 1995 24 144 175 3 Parmalee Bernie 1994 2 154 182 3 Williams Harvey 1994 19 179 203 4It's interesting that, while these guys continued to improve upon their breakout years, they all dropped off a cliff very soon thereafter. On an unrelated note, kudos to anyone who would've guessed or remembered that Bernie Parmalee was a relatively productive fantasy player for not one but two years. Seems like ages ago.
Anderson Jamal 1996 26 189 189 3 Bennett Edgar 1993 31 161 171 2 Staley Duce 1998 5 186 193 2 Thomas Thurman 1989 121 263 261 2For you youngsters out there, Thurman Thomas used to be a very, very good back. Jamal Anderson is the only guy anywhere on the list who was able to step it up to a completely new level. He essentially had two legitimate breakouts, which is very rare. Staley might have a chance to do the same, but I wouldn't bet too much on it.
Brown Gary 1993 15 172 114 3 Hearst Garrison 1995 28 143 104 2 Hoard Leroy 1994 58 188 65 5 Holmes Priest 1996 0 169 73 2 Johnson Anthony 1996 41 167 58 7 Kaufman Napoleon 1997 114 218 123 3 Levens Dorsey 1997 139 253 60 4 Loville Derek 1995 13 217 61 6 Means Natrone 1994 118 231 108 2Aside from Levens and Hearst, whose declines were due to injury, this is a virtual who's-who of one-hit-wonder RBs. Don't you get the feeling that a year from now, Tyrone Wheatley's name will fit right in here?
The lesson: it is not uncommon for an RB to come out of nowhere, have a great year, and then quickly descend back into mediocrity (or worse). In fact, breakout running backs seem to be more likely to suffer a drop in performance the next year than equally good running backs who were more established. In other words, don't be afraid to bet that a breakout running back was a fluke. If, after examining all the relevant information, that's the conclusion you come to, then be confident about it.
So what does that mean for last year's breakout crop? As usual, I'll temper my comments with the obligatory set of disclaimers: nobody knows what's going to happen, and a huge chunk of a players' success or failure depends on his situation, and other factors not being measured here. In short, you probably know as much as I do. For what it's worth, though, I'll throw my opinions into the ring.
I already mentioned that I don't much care for Wheatley this year. Curtis Enis, on the other hand, I like. He's young, and his failure to produce earlier in his career, unlike Wheatley's, is easily explained by a serious knee injury. I'm less sure about Charlie Garner, but I like him as well. There's no shame at all in being beaten out by Ricky Watters in his prime and Duce Staley. If Garner gets the majority of the 49ers' work, he'll match last season's numbers. Finally, Stephen Davis is a real stumper in my mind. His breakout was much more dramatic than most of the ones under consideration here, and I still have a hard time believing that anyone who was at one time considered Skip Hicks' equal is any good. On the other hand, his numbers from last year speak for themselves, and he's still relatively young. Personally, I don't plan to take him, but I'm fully prepared for the possibility that I'll get drubbed twice by whoever does.
OK, what about the receivers? Here are the pre-1999 breakouts:
---- Fant. Pts. -----
LastName FirstName YEAR PREV Brkout NEXT EXP
-----------------------------------------------------------
Alexander Derrick 1996 25 164 155 3
Brooks Robert 1995 89 230 59 4
Bruce Isaac 1995 45 258 176 2
Conway Curtis 1995 70 183 152 3
Ellard Henry 1988 98 202 187 6
Freeman Antonio 1996 17 147 198 2
Irvin Michael 1991 71 200 181 4
Mathis Terance 1994 43 200 158 5
Moulds Eric 1998 35 191 142 3
Reed Jake 1994 7 142 171 4
Rice Jerry 1986 119 260 251 2
Smith Jimmy 1996 47 166 156 5
Smith Rod 1997 36 192 165 3
The summary: these receivers collectively lost 150f their value the
season after they broke out. The group of all receivers scoring over
140 fantasy points tend to lose about 19%, so our breakout receivers
were about the same -- actually slightly better.
This says that, unlike breakout running backs, breakout wide
receivers are most likely here to stay. Take a look at the
list; you won't find many one-year-wonders. Unlike the running
back list, most of these guys continued to play at a high level after
their breakout. I was actually a tad surprised by this. I would've
guessed that receivers were more likely to have the defenses "catch up
with them" the next year, but that's not the way it turned out.
This bodes very well for Misters Crowell, Harrison, Jeffers, Ismail, and Robinson. They are most likely for real.