Hay in a needlestack: the search for productive rookie receivers
Most veteran fantasy footballers know that rookie wide receivers
have a dismal success rate. How dismal? Consider this: from 1985
to 2000, 113 WRs were chosen in the first two rounds
of the draft. Only 13 of them have been legitimate fantasy starters in
their rookie season. (I'm defining a "legitimate fantasy starter" as a
WR who was among the top 24 WRs of the year according to fantasy points,
which I'm defining as yards/10 + TDs*6).
That's about a 12uccess rate.
So far so good, we all know this. But here's where, in my view, a lot
of people make a wrong turn. A lot of fantasy GMs just write off
rookie WRs altogether because of this. That's not the answer. The
answer is to try to figure out who's going to be in that 12%.
First, recall that 2001 was The Year Of The WR [TM] in
the NFL draft: six receivers in the first round and four more in the
second. There was a similar run on receivers back in 1996 (five in
round one and six more in round two), and 1996 turned out to be a
banner year for rookie wideouts. Keyshawn Johnson, Eddie Kennison,
Marvin Harrison, and Terry Glenn were all legitimate fantasy starters as
rookies that year. Maybe we're in store for a similar treat this year.
To give us a clue, let's see if there's a relationship between the
size of the rookie crop and the quality.
WRs drafted Rookie WRs in top 24
Year in first two rounds for fantasy points
-------------------------------------------------------
2001 10 ???
2000 8 0
1999 5 1
1998 10 1
1997 7 0
1996 11 4
1995 5 2
1994 11 1
1993 7 0
1992 5 0
1991 7 0
1990 3 2
1989 6 0
1988 9 1
1987 6 0
1986 5 2
1985 8 4
NOTE: all draft information was taken from
drafthistory.com, a site
with which I am in no way affiliated, but which I highly recommend.
No correlation at all. Several large rookie classes produced weak results
and some of the smaller crops produced a fair amount of decent
rookies. So I guess we shouldn't necessarily count on any rookie
WRs to hit it big this year just based on the depth of draft
class.
Now, if you tally up the right-hand column, you'll notice that a total
of 18 rookie wide receivers have been legitimate fantasy starters since
1985. What I want to do for the remainder of this article is to
take a systematic but subjective look at these 18 players and the
situations they landed in. Maybe we can find some common threads that
will help point us to the rookie successes of 2001 (if any).
So, for each of the 18 successful rookie WRs, I will ask a series of
questions and give their answers as best as I can. At the end, we'll
round up all the answers and see if anything grabs our attention.
- Kevin Johnson,
ranked #17 in 1999, Browns
- Drafted: 2nd round. 4th WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Very bad. 1999 was the new Browns'
inaugural year, and they performed about like you'd expect an expansion
team to perform.
- Good passing game? Awful passing game.
- Running team or passing team? Even worse running game, so the
answer is neither.
- Established #1 WR in place? Definitely not. Johnson was far and
away the #1 target, although Terry Kirby caught a lot of balls out of the
backfield.
- Stable QB situation? Somewhat. Rookie Tim Couch got the vast
majority of the playing time.
- Randy Moss,
ranked #1 in 1998, Vikings
- Drafted: 1st round. 2nd WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Pretty mediocre -- 17-15 the two years
before Moss arrived.
- Good passing game? Average to good. Not great.
- Running team or passing team? In 96, they were passing-oriented.
In 97, the running game was the offense's strong suit.
- Established #1 WR in place? I'd say Cris Carter qualifies.
- Stable QB situation? Sort of. Moss' rookie year was the season
Cunningham took over for an injured Brad Johnson. There was a fair
amount of QB controversy for the first part of the season.
- Terry Glenn,
ranked #13 in 1996, Patriots
- Drafted: 1st round. 2nd WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? The had just followed a breakout year
(10-6 in 94) with a terribly disappointing one (6-10 in 95). They were
back up (11-5) in Glenn's rookie year.
- Good passing game? Very prolific in 94, pretty poor in 95.
- Running team or passing team? They led the league in passing
attempts in 94 and 95.
- Established #1 WR in place? No; the closest thing to it
would be Vincent Brisby. But there was Ben Coates.
- Stable QB situation? Yes.
- Eddie Kennison,
ranked #17 in 1996, Rams
- Drafted: 1st round. 3rd WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Bad team that had been bad for a long time
and was showing no signs of improving.
- Good passing game? Lots of attempts, not a lot of yards.
- Running team or passing team? Passing. Bettis was not producing
at all, and there was no other run game to speak of.
- Established #1 WR in place? Yes. Isaac Bruce had just broken
out and was healthy and productive during Kennison's rookie year.
- Stable QB situation? Not really. The rookie Tony Banks was
sharing time with Steve Walsh (and even Jamie Martin).
- Marvin Harrison,
ranked #21 in 1996, Colts
- Drafted: 1st round. 4th WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Extraordinarily average.
- Good passing game? Efficient but conservative.
- Running team or passing team? Running. Faulk was the man.
- Established #1 WR in place? No. Sean Dawkins was the Colts'
leading WR for the previous two years (which would certainly explain their
desire to draft Harrison).
- Stable QB situation? No. Harbaugh and Paul Justin both got significant playing time.
- Keyshawn Johnson,
ranked #22 in 1996, Jets
- Drafted: #1 overall.
- Good team or bad team? Good teams don't usually draft #1. The
Jets were 3-13 the year before Keyshawn got there (and 1-15 during his
rookie year).
- Good passing game? They didn't have a good anything.
- Running team or passing team? They passed a lot more than they
ran, probably because they were behind a lot.
- Established #1 WR in place? Not unless you count Chrebet.
- Stable QB situation? My goodness no. O'Donnell, Glenn Foley, and
Frank Reich all attempted over 100 passes.
- Joey Galloway,
ranked #14 in 1995, Seahawks
- Drafted: 1st round. 2nd WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Bad. 6-10 two straight years prior to
Joey's arrival. 8-8 in his rookie year.
- Good passing game? Very bad passing game.
- Running team or passing team? Running. That was Chris Warren's
prime.
- Established #1 WR in place? Brian Blades?
- Stable QB situation? No. This was around the time people were
starting to get fed up with Rick Mirer. John Friesz played quite a bit.
- Chris Sanders,
ranked #22 in 1995, Oilers
- Drafted: 3rd round. 6th WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Bad team. The Moon era had just ended and
the Oilers suffered through a 2-14 year in 94. 7-9 in 95.
- Good passing game? No.
- Running team or passing team? More run-oriented, although they
didn't have a great back.
- Established #1 WR in place? No. Haywood Jeffires was at the
end of the line and wasn't much of a threat.
- Stable QB situation? No. Chris Chandler, Will Furrer, and
McNair all got snaps.
- Darnay Scott,
ranked #21 in 1994, Bengals
- Drafted: 2nd round. 5th WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? The Bengals.
- Good passing game? Horrible in 94. Improved quite a bit in
Scott's rookie year (which was also the year Blake got the starting job
and Pickens broke out).
- Running team or passing team? No running game at all.
- Established #1 WR in place? Pickens wasn't established
at the beginning of the year, but he was at the end.
- Stable QB situation? No. Klingler and Blake both tossed a lot
of balls.
- Fred Barnett,
ranked #19 in 1990, Eagles
- Drafted: 3rd round. 7th WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Good team.
- Good passing game? Yes. Cunningham was just becoming established
as a top QB.
- Running team or passing team? Fairly balanced, despite a
motley collection of backs.
- Established #1 WR in place? No, but Keith Jackson was a well-established
receiving threat.
- Stable QB situation? Yes.
- Calvin Williams,
ranked #24 in 1990, Eagles
- Drafted: 5th round. 17th WR picked.
- All other questions: See Barnett above.
- Brian Blades,
ranked #24 in 1988, Seahawks
- Drafted: 2nd round. 8th WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Good, but not great.
- Good passing game? Mediocre.
- Running team or passing team? The year before Blades arrived,
they were a running team (Curt Warner). Blades' rookie year they were
more balanced.
- Established #1 WR in place? Largent was still around but
fading fast.
- Stable QB situation? No. The Seahawks were trying to work
in their QB of the future Kelly Stouffer because they thought Krieg was
at the end of his line.
- Billy Brooks,
ranked #9 in 1986, Colts
- Drafted: 4th round. 8th WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Very bad.
- Good passing game? Pre-Brooks, a very bad passing game. In
Brooks' rookie year, they threw a lot, but not very effectively.
- Running team or passing team? In 85, they ran a lot.
In 86, they passed much more often.
- Established #1 WR in place? Not at all. Wayne Capers was their
leading receiver in 85, with 438 yards.
- Stable QB situation? No. Gary Hogeboom and Jack Trudeau split time.
- Ernest Givins,
ranked #13 in 1986, Oilers
- Drafted: 2nd round. 3rd WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Very bad.
- Good passing game? Average at best. Moon had been there for
two years, but had not yet become the Warren Moon we would eventually
know.
- Running team or passing team? Passing team. No good RBs to
speak of.
- Established #1 WR in place? I think Drew Hill qualifies. He
was coming off a 1169/9 season.
- Stable QB situation? Oliver Luck played a little (60 attempts), but
it was mostly Moon.
- Eddie Brown,
ranked #7 in 1985, Bengals
- Drafted: 1st round. 2nd WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Very mediocre.
- Good passing game? Average in 84, but huge in 85, which was
Boomer's first year as the starter.
- Running team or passing team? Balanced. They had a very nice
running game, led by James Brooks, but with lots of contributors.
- Established #1 WR in place? Yes, Cris Collinsworth.
- Stable QB situation? For the most part, yes. Boomer threw about
900f the passes.
- Anthony Carter,
ranked #16 in 1985, Vikings
- Drafted: He came over from the USFL, so it's questionable whether
he belongs in this study at all.
- Good team or bad team? They were mediocre throughout the mid-80's,
but were coming off a particularly poor year (3-13 in 84).
- Good passing game? They threw a lot, but not very effectively.
- Running team or passing team? Primarily passing. No serious
running threats.
- Established #1 WR in place? No. Leo Lewis and Sammy White was
the WR duo pre-Carter.
- Stable QB situation? Yes. Tommy Kramer got virtually all of the
snaps.
- Gary Clark,
ranked #19 in 1985, Redskins
- Drafted: 2nd round.
- Good team or bad team? Very good team.
- Good passing game? Surprisingly, no. They were near the bottom
of the league in passing yards and yards per attempt. The Redskins' air
attack didn't take off until Schroeder replaced Theismann for good in 86.
- Running team or passing team? Very much a running team behind
John Riggins and George Rogers.
- Established #1 WR in place? Yes, Art Monk was well-established.
- Stable QB situation? No. Schroeder and Theismann split time
fairly evenly.
- Jerry Rice,
ranked #22 in 1985, 49ers
- Drafted: 1st round. 3rd WR picked.
- Good team or bad team? Very good team.
- Good passing game? Yes. The 9er passing attack was top notch
even pre-Rice.
- Running team or passing team? Balanced. Superb running and
passing games.
- Established #1 WR in place? Dwight Clark was there but very
much on the downside of his career.
- Stable QB situation? Yes indeed.
Summing it up
Conclusions: So history has taught us that successful rookie
wide receivers can come from the following kinds of teams:
- good teams;
- bad teams;
- pass-oriented teams;
- run-oriented teams;
- teams that already had a good receiving corps;
- teams that had a terrible collection of WRs;
- teams with veteran QBs;
- teams with rookie QBs;
- teams with good QBs;
- teams with bad QBs;
- teams with a rotating carousel of QBs;
And the worst part is that, at least to my eye, all these kinds of
teams appear equally likely to produce successful rookie WRs.
What a mess.
So have we accomplished anything here? I'm not sure. I guess
what I'll take from this exercise is that perhaps that buzzword
"situation" is overrated when it comes to considering rookie WRs.
The successful rookies in the past 16 years have come from a
bewilderingly diverse collection of different situations.
Of course, we could go deeper and look at factors other than
the ones considered here.
For instance, one thing that strikes me is that, at a glance, it appears
that most of the
above WRs are on the small side. This would appear to fit with bits of
conventional wisdom I've heard to the effect that it takes a few years for
big receivers to learn to use their size. Good news for Santana Moss? I'm
not quite prepared to say that right now, but maybe worth considering.
In fact, at this point, I don't have any
confidence that I can push my success rate with picking rookie WRs above the
general 12%. And I don't like those odds. Maybe writing off
all the rookie receivers (at least until the late rounds) isn't such
a bad idea after all.