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Kevan Barlow career statistics
Rookies Travis Henry, Michael Bennett, and Kevan Barlow finished 28th, 29th, and 30th among RBs last year. If you've read the Travis Henry comment and the Michael Bennett comment, you'll know that I'm not too high on either of them. Barlow, on the other hand, looks to me like he'll eventually be a good one.
Just because we've got an interesting cluster of rookie RBs right around #30, let's take a look at the careers of RBs who had roughly similar rookie years. Below is a list of all RBs since 1970 who finished between #25 and #35 in their rookie season and are now retired. Also listed is how they finished in each of their next five years. Thurman Thomas is the only true superstar here, but there are a few guys who went on to have very productive careers. To summarize, 20 of these 43 rookies went on to have at least one season above the baseline. Overall, their average career VBD is 86.
rookie
Name Rook Yr rank ---- next 5 years --
------------------------+-------+--------------------
Alfred Anderson 1984 | 28 | 62 47 58 34 69
Mario Bates 1994 | 33 | 19 41 46 53 37
James Brooks 1981 | 29 | 22 46 41 8 6
Derek Brown 1993 | 27 | 29 56 117
Kelvin Bryant 1986 | 31 | 17 27 84
Rodney Culver 1992 | 28 | 64 116 73
Sam Cunningham 1973 | 33 | 8 14 20 9 21
Ron Davenport 1985 | 34 | 70 62 68 111
Jerry Eckwood 1979 | 35 | 30 40
Ricky Ervins 1991 | 29 | 36 78 28 105
Vagas Ferguson 1980 | 34 | 70 140 148
Andra Franklin 1981 | 30 | 12 36 126
Stan Fritts 1975 | 31 | 80
Lawrence Gaines 1976 | 30 | 107 136
Woody Green 1974 | 29 | 21 76
Herman Heard 1984 | 30 | 36 74 44 60 67
Darick Holmes 1995 | 28 | 34 82 47
Billy Jackson 1981 | 34 | 40 50 75
Bo Jackson 1987 | 27 | 47 21 28
Wilbur Jackson 1974 | 27 | 82 22 17 44
Garry James 1986 | 33 | 48 25
Stanford Jennings 1984 | 35 | 71 106 42 107 61
James Jones 1983 | 31 | 14 18 15 54 65
Keith Jones 1989 | 35 | 89 94 71
Fred Lane 1997 | 26 | 26 45
Randy McMillan 1981 | 28 | 42 32 26 29 34
Terry Metcalf 1973 | 30 | 11 8 18 12
Chuck Muncie 1976 | 31 | 14 30 8 20 3
Christian Okoye 1987 | 29 | 54 5 24 9 42
Rick Parros 1981 | 33 | 31 81 80 117
Gerald Riggs 1982 | 26 | 42 5 5 8 20
John Riggins 1971 | 25 | 14 37 15 5 35
David Sims 1977 | 31 | 9 133
Sammie Smith 1989 | 27 | 18 67 97
Sherman Smith 1976 | 26 | 11 17 7 118 43
Tim Spencer 1985 | 35 | 49 73 101 44 145
Mike Strachan 1975 | 33 | 85 99 64 70 137
Thurman Thomas 1988 | 29 | 2 2 2 2 3
Art Whittington 1978 | 31 | 53 66 64 127
James Wilder 1981 | 31 | 13 30 1 7 28
Gerald Willhite 1982 | 33 | 64 53 53 26 109
Tim Worley 1989 | 25 | 65 107 52 111
Rickey Young 1975 | 28 | 15 22 22 20 31