Drinen rambles about something having to do with: Trung Canidate

Introduction to these player comments
Index of player comments
Glossary of terms
Trung Canidate career statistics

Trivia: among running backs with 90 or more touches (rushes plus receptions) last year, Canidate led the league in fantasy points per touch. Here's the list:

Name                Touch  FPT FPT/T
------------------------------------
Trung Canidate         95   96  1.01
Marshall Faulk        343  341  0.99
Tony Richardson        96   88  0.91
Larry Centers         114  102  0.89
Mike Alstott          200  157  0.79
Cory Schlesinger      107   80  0.75
Shaun Alexander       353  262  0.74
Lamont Warren         101   74  0.73
Amos Zereoue           98   72  0.73
Ahman Green           366  264  0.72
Kevan Barlow          147  106  0.72
Jamel White           170  122  0.72
Priest Holmes         389  277  0.71
Tiki Barber           238  168  0.71
Dominic Rhodes        267  187  0.70
Tyrone Wheatley       100   70  0.70
Stacey Mack           236  164  0.70
Antowain Smith        306  213  0.70

I should point out that Bob Christian had a higher fantasy points per touch than Canidate, but only had 89 touches. I didn't want to write a Bob Christian comment, so I made the cutoff 90.

I wonder where Trung Canidate will be picked if Marshall Faulk tears his ACL on August 1. My guess is mid-2nd-round. We really know hardly anything about him, but there are some good reasons to believe he could be a top-10 or a top-5 back if given the chance this year.

1. The fact that he plays for the Rams. It's hard to imagine any NFL running back playing full time for St. Louis and not cracking the top 10. "The system" is believed to be a pretty strong force in determining an RB's numbers, and for good reason. We've seen it Denver. We've seen it in Indy. We've seen it in San Francisco.

2. And we've seen it in St. Louis. Canidate started two games last year and racked up 53 fantasy points in those two starts. The only RBs in the league last year to have a better two-consecutive-week stretch were Faulk, Shaun Alexander, and Priest Holmes. Here's a list of each RB's best two-week stretch of last year:

   
   Name                 Year Weeks FantPts
   ---------------------------------------
   Marshall Faulk       2001 15-16   77
   Shaun Alexander      2001  9-10   62
   Priest Holmes        2001 13-14   58
   Trung Canidate       2001  6- 7   53
   Dominic Rhodes       2001 14-15   52
   Jamel White          2001 15-16   49
   Curtis Martin        2001  3- 4   48
   Edgerrin James       2001  1- 2   48
   Ricky Williams       2001  4- 5   47
   LaDainian Tomlinson  2001  3- 4   47
   Jerome Bettis        2001  6- 7   46
   Anthony Thomas       2001  6- 7   44
   Ahman Green          2001  1- 2   44
   Garrison Hearst      2001 11-12   43
   Mike Alstott         2001  7- 8   43
   Stacey Mack          2001 15-16   42
   Duce Staley          2001  9-10   42
   Corey Dillon         2001  6- 7   41
   Jamal Anderson       2001  1- 2   40
   Michael Bennett      2001 12-13   40
   Antowain Smith       2001 11-12   40
   Stephen Davis        2001 16-17   40
   
   

The pessimistic counterpoints to those two arguments:

1. The human brain is wired to remember things that conform to our expectations and forget things that don't. So we remember Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson and Dominic Rhodes. But we easily forget Byron Hanspard and Justin Watson.

   No one will admit to it now, but waiver wires across the country were smoking hot with the name Byron Hanspard as soon as Jamal Anderson injured his knee in 2000. Hanspard was, of course, a dud. In retrospect, it's easy to say that the Falcons didn't really have that strong of a system, and that's true. But people didn't think that at the time. Also, the same thing happened in St. Louis that same year. When Marshall Faulk missed his two games in 2000, Justin Watson became a hot commodity. Watson started two games in Faulk's place and posted very pedestrian numbers.

   The system helps, but it is not a guarantee.

2. While Canidate's two-week stretch as a starter was very impressive, similar two-week runs have been posted in recent years by Tim Biakabutuka, LeShon Johnson, Greg Hill, Jamel White, Rashaan Salaam, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Napoleon Kaufman, and Erric Pegram. In other words, two weeks does not a great back make.

One thing that separates Canidate from the others listed above, however, is that he doesn't have several bad two-week stretches. Really, the only time we've seen him play, he's been great. In the final analysis, I think I side with the majority. If Faulk happens to go down for an extended period, I do think Trung is a top 10 back.

But it's not a slam dunk.