Introduction to these player comments
Index of player comments
Glossary of terms
David Terrell career statistics
[NOTE: the following is modified from its original form. Reader Ed Reaven correctly pointed out that my data was incomplete. This comment has been modified to reflect the corrections.]
In the Donte Stallworth comment, I outlined my reasons for reluctantly falling into line with the "never draft a rookie receiver" thinking. I was disappointed to have to resort to such drastic measures, for two reasons:
But the evidence was just too overwhelming. I had no choice.
For a moment, it depressed me to have to cross all those 22-year-old physical specimens and their 4.3 forties off my list. If winning means having a receiving corps full of Johnnie Mortons and Keenan McCardells, then I'm not sure I want to win.
But then it hit me. There's gobs of youth and upside still remaining at receiver in the form of last year's rookie washouts.
David Terrell and Koren Robinson were the 8th and 9th players picked in the 2001 NFL draft. Since 1980, there have been 23 wide receivers picked in the first ten slots of the NFL draft. Of those 23, four finished above the baseline in their rookie year. That's 17 percent. Terrell and Robinson finished 61st and 64th among WRs which, in light of the above, isn't particularly suprising.
So let's look at guys who, like Terrell and Robinson, were top-10 picks and who, also like Terrell and Robinson, had poor rookie seasons. Among top-10-drafted WRs who finished below the baseline in their rookie years, seven of 17 finished above the baseline in their second year. That's 41 percent -- better than double the rookie success rate. Even if you look at top-10-drafted WRs who were not among the top 50 in their rookie years, you'll find that 4 of those 13 (31 percent) were above the baseline in their second year.
Now, if samples this small make you nervous, I don't blame you. Also, we've made a lot of arbitrary choices here (1980, top 10, baseline, top 50, etc.), and different cutoffs might give you different results. In particular, I wish I had time to repeat this study with not just top-10-drafted WRs but with top-20 or first-round WRs. But I stopped at 10 because draft information is not currently part of my database, and thus a lot of the number-crunching has to be done by hand. Anyway, I've glued the lifetime stats of all the top-10-drafted WRs since 1980 to the bottom of this comment so you can investigate things yourself.
As for me, I've seen enough (in this study and others) that I truly believe guys like Robinson and Terrell are a better bet than any rookie WR, regardless of the situation or talent of the rookie. From glancing through mock drafts, Terrell in particular looks like a high-upside bargain for 2002.
Koren Robinson 2001 sea | 16 | 4 13 3.25 0 | 39 536 13.74 1 | -68 64 202 David Terrell 2001 chi | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 34 415 12.21 4 | -63 61 186 Peter Warrick 2000 cin | 16 | 16 148 9.25 2 | 51 592 11.61 4 | 0 31 79 2001 cin | 16 | 8 14 1.75 0 | 70 667 9.53 1 | -55 51 157 Plaxico Burress 2000 pit | 10 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 23 283 12.30 0 | -82 92 239 2001 pit | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 66 1008 15.27 6 | 7 25 64 Travis Taylor 2000 bal | 9 | 3 11 3.67 0 | 27 276 10.22 3 | -63 73 214 2001 bal | 15 | 5 46 9.20 0 | 42 560 13.33 3 | -50 50 145 Torry Holt 1999 ram | 16 | 3 25 8.33 0 | 52 788 15.15 6 | -2 35 86 2000 ram | 16 | 2 7 3.50 0 | 82 1635 19.94 6 | 89 7 18 2001 ram | 16 | 2 0 0.00 0 | 81 1363 16.83 7 | 49 8 29 David Boston 1999 ari | 16 | 5 0 0.00 0 | 40 473 11.82 2 | -60 67 217 2000 ari | 16 | 3 4 1.33 0 | 71 1156 16.28 7 | 47 15 38 2001 ari | 16 | 5 35 7.00 0 | 98 1598 16.31 8 | 82 3 15 Ike Hilliard 1997 nyg | 2 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 2 42 21.00 0 | -111 136 340 1998 nyg | 16 | 1 4 4.00 0 | 51 715 14.02 2 | -39 52 134 1999 nyg | 16 | 3 16 5.33 0 | 72 996 13.83 3 | 0 32 80 2000 nyg | 14 | 3 19 6.33 0 | 55 787 14.31 8 | 18 22 58 2001 nyg | 14 | 1 21 21.00 0 | 52 659 12.67 6 | -25 37 100 Keyshawn Johnson 1996 nyj | 14 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 63 844 13.40 8 | 16 22 54 1997 nyj | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 70 963 13.76 5 | 11 23 62 1998 nyj | 16 | 2 60 30.00 1 | 83 1131 13.63 10 | 61 5 22 1999 nyj | 16 | 5 6 1.20 0 | 89 1170 13.15 8 | 45 12 33 2000 tam | 16 | 2 5 2.50 0 | 71 874 12.31 8 | 25 21 53 2001 tam | 15 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 106 1266 11.94 1 | 3 28 69 Terry Glenn 1996 nwe | 15 | 5 42 8.40 0 | 90 1132 12.58 6 | 37 14 41 1997 nwe | 9 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 27 431 15.96 2 | -60 66 202 1998 nwe | 10 | 2 -1 -0.50 0 | 50 792 15.84 3 | -26 41 111 1999 nwe | 14 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 69 1147 16.62 4 | 18 25 56 2000 nwe | 16 | 4 39 9.75 0 | 79 963 12.19 6 | 25 20 52 2001 nwe | 4 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 14 204 14.57 1 | -102 100 295 Michael Westbrook 1995 was | 11 | 6 114 19.00 1 | 34 522 15.35 1 | -44 54 146 1996 was | 11 | 2 2 1.00 0 | 34 505 14.85 1 | -59 71 213 1997 was | 13 | 3 -11 -3.67 0 | 34 559 16.44 3 | -42 54 155 1998 was | 11 | 1 11 11.00 0 | 44 736 16.73 6 | -12 38 96 1999 was | 16 | 7 35 5.00 0 | 65 1191 18.32 9 | 56 9 26 2000 was | 2 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 9 103 11.44 0 | -100 127 288 2001 was | 16 | 2 8 4.00 0 | 57 664 11.65 4 | -38 42 118 Joey Galloway 1995 sea | 16 | 11 154 14.00 1 | 67 1039 15.51 7 | 47 14 37 1996 sea | 16 | 15 127 8.47 0 | 57 987 17.32 7 | 37 13 40 1997 sea | 15 | 9 72 8.00 0 | 72 1049 14.57 12 | 68 5 15 1998 sea | 16 | 9 26 2.89 0 | 65 1047 16.11 10 | 44 9 28 1999 sea | 8 | 1 -1 -1.00 0 | 22 335 15.23 1 | -80 82 249 2000 dal | 1 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 4 62 15.50 1 | -98 124 282 2001 dal | 16 | 3 32 10.67 0 | 52 699 13.44 3 | -38 43 119 J.J. Stokes 1995 sfo | 12 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 38 517 13.61 4 | -44 53 145 1996 sfo | 6 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 18 249 13.83 0 | -91 98 286 1997 sfo | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 58 733 12.64 4 | -18 41 111 1998 sfo | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 63 770 12.22 8 | 1 26 69 1999 sfo | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 34 429 12.62 3 | -59 65 209 2000 sfo | 14 | 1 6 6.00 0 | 30 524 17.47 3 | -39 59 145 2001 sfo | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 54 585 10.83 7 | -28 38 105 Curtis Conway 1993 chi | 16 | 5 44 8.80 0 | 19 231 12.16 2 | -66 78 243 1994 chi | 13 | 6 31 5.17 0 | 39 546 14.00 2 | -39 62 152 1995 chi | 16 | 5 77 15.40 0 | 62 1037 16.73 12 | 63 12 27 1996 chi | 16 | 8 50 6.25 0 | 81 1049 12.95 7 | 36 15 42 1997 chi | 7 | 3 17 5.67 0 | 30 476 15.87 1 | -60 65 201 1998 chi | 15 | 5 48 9.60 0 | 54 733 13.57 3 | -27 43 113 1999 chi | 10 | 1 -2 -2.00 0 | 44 426 9.68 4 | -53 62 185 2000 sdg | 14 | 3 31 10.33 0 | 53 712 13.43 5 | -6 36 86 2001 sdg | 16 | 7 116 16.57 1 | 71 1125 15.85 6 | 36 12 35 Desmond Howard 1992 was | 16 | 3 14 4.67 0 | 3 20 6.67 0 | -89 134 317 1993 was | 16 | 2 17 8.50 0 | 23 286 12.43 0 | -75 85 255 1994 was | 16 | 1 4 4.00 0 | 40 727 18.18 5 | -5 33 87 1995 jax | 13 | 1 8 8.00 0 | 26 276 10.62 1 | -85 91 250 1996 gnb | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 13 95 7.31 0 | -106 125 337 1997 oak | 15 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 4 30 7.50 0 | -112 142 347 1998 oak | 15 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 2 16 8.00 0 | -121 157 390 2000 det | 15 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 2 14 7.00 0 | -109 152 317 2001 det | 14 | 5 25 5.00 0 | 10 133 13.30 1 | -107 110 310 Herman Moore 1991 det | 15 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 11 135 12.27 0 | -90 113 300 1992 det | 12 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 51 966 18.94 4 | 28 14 41 1993 det | 15 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 61 935 15.33 6 | 23 13 47 1994 det | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 72 1173 16.29 11 | 74 6 16 1995 det | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 123 1686 13.71 14 | 132 3 6 1996 det | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 106 1296 12.23 9 | 67 6 22 1997 det | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 104 1293 12.43 8 | 62 7 21 1998 det | 15 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 82 983 11.99 5 | 5 23 65 1999 det | 8 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 16 197 12.31 2 | -88 93 271 2000 det | 14 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 40 434 10.85 3 | -49 64 160 2001 det | 6 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 4 76 19.00 0 | -121 135 361 Tim Brown 1988 rai | 16 | 14 50 3.57 1 | 43 725 16.86 5 | 5 26 69 1989 rai | 1 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 1 8 8.00 0 | -107 139 356 1990 rai | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 18 265 14.72 3 | -64 74 222 1991 rai | 16 | 5 16 3.20 0 | 36 554 15.39 5 | -17 41 108 1992 rai | 15 | 3 -4 -1.33 0 | 49 693 14.14 7 | 18 20 55 1993 rai | 16 | 2 7 3.50 0 | 80 1180 14.75 7 | 54 6 20 1994 rai | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 89 1309 14.71 9 | 76 5 15 1995 oak | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 89 1342 15.08 10 | 74 9 22 1996 oak | 16 | 6 35 5.83 0 | 90 1104 12.27 9 | 52 10 29 1997 oak | 16 | 5 19 3.80 0 | 104 1408 13.54 5 | 57 8 25 1998 oak | 16 | 1 -7 -7.00 0 | 81 1012 12.49 9 | 31 15 42 1999 oak | 16 | 1 4 4.00 0 | 90 1344 14.93 6 | 50 11 30 2000 oak | 16 | 3 12 4.00 0 | 76 1128 14.84 11 | 69 11 30 2001 oak | 16 | 4 39 9.75 0 | 91 1165 12.80 9 | 45 9 31 Sterling Sharpe 1988 gnb | 16 | 4 -2 -0.50 0 | 55 791 14.38 1 | -23 40 105 1989 gnb | 16 | 2 25 12.50 0 | 90 1423 15.81 12 | 108 2 7 1990 gnb | 16 | 2 14 7.00 0 | 67 1105 16.49 6 | 38 8 28 1991 gnb | 16 | 4 4 1.00 0 | 69 961 13.93 4 | 16 21 53 1992 gnb | 16 | 4 8 2.00 0 | 108 1461 13.53 13 | 132 1 6 1993 gnb | 16 | 4 8 2.00 0 | 112 1274 11.38 11 | 88 3 9 1994 gnb | 16 | 3 15 5.00 0 | 94 1119 11.90 18 | 112 2 8 Al Toon 1985 nyj | 15 | 1 5 5.00 0 | 46 662 14.39 3 | -23 44 112 1986 nyj | 16 | 2 -3 -1.50 0 | 85 1176 13.84 8 | 63 7 23 1987 nyj | 12 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 68 976 14.35 5 | 51 10 25 1988 nyj | 15 | 1 5 5.00 0 | 93 1067 11.47 5 | 28 13 37 1989 nyj | 11 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 63 693 11.00 2 | -27 44 129 1990 nyj | 14 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 57 757 13.28 6 | 2 27 71 1991 nyj | 15 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 74 963 13.01 0 | -6 36 92 1992 nyj | 9 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 31 311 10.03 2 | -49 80 202 Irving Fryar 1984 nwe | 14 | 2 -11 -5.50 0 | 11 164 14.91 1 | -81 94 269 1985 nwe | 16 | 7 27 3.86 1 | 39 670 17.18 7 | 9 23 61 1986 nwe | 14 | 4 80 20.00 0 | 43 737 17.14 6 | 15 22 60 1987 nwe | 12 | 9 52 5.78 0 | 31 467 15.06 5 | -9 34 88 1988 nwe | 15 | 6 12 2.00 0 | 33 490 14.85 5 | -28 42 111 1989 nwe | 11 | 2 15 7.50 0 | 29 537 18.52 3 | -35 51 154 1990 nwe | 16 | 2 -4 -2.00 0 | 54 856 15.85 4 | 0 30 78 1991 nwe | 16 | 2 11 5.50 0 | 68 1014 14.91 3 | 16 22 54 1992 nwe | 15 | 1 6 6.00 0 | 55 791 14.38 4 | 11 25 62 1993 mia | 16 | 3 -4 -1.33 0 | 64 1010 15.78 5 | 24 11 45 1994 mia | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 73 1270 17.40 7 | 60 9 22 1995 mia | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 62 910 14.68 8 | 19 21 56 1996 phi | 16 | 1 -4 -4.00 0 | 88 1195 13.58 11 | 69 5 20 1997 phi | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 86 1316 15.30 6 | 52 10 31 1998 phi | 16 | 3 46 15.33 0 | 48 556 11.58 2 | -51 58 155 1999 was | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 26 254 9.77 2 | -82 87 258 2000 was | 14 | 2 16 8.00 0 | 41 548 13.37 5 | -24 50 116 Kenny Jackson 1984 phi | 11 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 26 398 15.31 1 | -56 68 186 1985 phi | 16 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 40 692 17.30 1 | -33 52 137 1986 phi | 16 | 1 6 6.00 0 | 30 506 16.87 6 | -14 37 96 1987 phi | 12 | 6 27 4.50 0 | 21 471 22.43 3 | -28 43 118 1988 phi | 7 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 0 0 0.00 0 | -108 135 323 1989 hou | 10 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 4 31 7.75 0 | -105 133 344 1990 phi | 14 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 1 43 43.00 0 | -104 135 331 1991 phi | 16 | 1 18 18.00 0 | 4 29 7.25 0 | -99 127 321 David Verser 1981 cin | 16 | 2 11 5.50 0 | 6 161 26.83 2 | -68 77 199 1982 cin | 9 | 1 1 1.00 0 | 4 98 24.50 1 | -66 83 200 1983 cin | 13 | 2 31 15.50 0 | 7 82 11.71 0 | -79 114 267 1984 cin | 11 | 2 5 2.50 0 | 6 113 18.83 0 | -90 107 292 1985 tam | 1 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 0 0 0.00 0 | -108 119 294 1987 cle | 2 | 1 9 9.00 0 | 0 0 0.00 0 | -117 140 335 Lam Jones 1980 nyj | 16 | 2 5 2.50 0 | 25 482 19.28 3 | -34 53 138 1981 nyj | 15 | 2 0 0.00 0 | 20 342 17.10 3 | -45 62 147 1982 nyj | 8 | 1 2 2.00 0 | 18 294 16.33 2 | -21 41 109 1983 nyj | 14 | 4 10 2.50 0 | 43 734 17.07 4 | 7 28 69 1984 nyj | 8 | 0 0 0.00 0 | 32 470 14.69 1 | -49 62 168