Here's this week's article, comparing the equally brilliant but totally different wide receivers, Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker. Together, they have a chance to take down each of the main receiving records in football history. My take: Welker has a legitimate chance to break the receptions record, Johnson has a small but not impossibly small chance of breaking the touchdowns mark, and it would take a miracle for Welker to challenge the receiving yards mark.

Also: the Patriots offense is the best offense through four weeks in league history, with the second best offense being whoever is playing the Patriots. Mark Sanchez and the Jets test this logic on Sunday.

The Patriots, Jets, Eagles and Falcons entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations, but all struggled on Sunday. The failures of those teams ranged from unusual (the Jets rush defense had its worst game ever under Ryan) to scary (the Falcons just aren't that good, Mike Vick can't seem to stay healthy) to both (the Pats D is really bad, and New England lost its first game ever when leading by 21 points under Belichick). Pittsburgh and San Diego get dishonorable mentions here, for squeaking by the Little Disters of the Poor, Midwest edition.

Read the full article here.

The most famous comeback in history happened in Buffalo. The second largest comeback in regular season history occurred inside of Rich Stadium. The largest comeback in the NFL last season came via the right arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick. And now, Orchard Park was the site of another record, as the Bills became the first team to ever come back from 18+ deficits to win in consecutive weeks.

From 2002 to 2010, 22 teams overcame a deficit of 18 points or more to win a game. So far this season, the Bills have come from 18 and 21 points back to win in consecutive weeks. At the same time, the Vikings lost 17 and 20 point leads to Tampa Bay and Detroit. Jason Lisk thinks the craziness might continue, thanks to the ridiculous passing numbers so far this season (more to come on this in a future post).

From 1945 to 2010, there were 126 games where the winning team was trailing by more than 17 points at some point in the game. While the Bills became the first team to win consecutive games after trailing by 18+ points, six other teams did that feat twice over the course of a season. In '96, Bill Parcells' Patriots did the trick against his former and future employer, and in the same stadium: New England trailed the Jets 21-0 in week 11 and the Giants 22-0 in week 17, but ended up winning both games. The '95 Colts came up one play shy of the Super Bowl, but began their never-say-die ways earlier in the season. Indianapolis won two divisions games 27-24, after trailing 24-3 in both games against the Jets and Dolphins. In 1983, the Falcons trailed the (you guessed it) Jets and Packers 21-0 over the course of five weeks, but won both games by six points.

On the other side of things, it's hard to envision a more anxiety-inducing three weeks than weeks six through eight of the 1987 season for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay scored three first quarter touchdowns against the Chicago Bears, although failed to convert the PAT following the third touchdown. Tampa extended the lead to 26-14 in the third quarter, but ultimately fell 27-26. The next week, the Tampa defense held the Packers off the scoreboard in the first half. The Bucs extended the lead to 23-3 in the 4th quarter, before Green Bay scored two more touchdowns. Tampa held on for the victory. Then, against the Cardinals, the Buccaneers took a 28-3 lead into the fourth quarter. But the Cardinals scored four fourth quarter touchdowns to win the game, 31-28. Remember, folks: for every great comeback, there's an equal and opposite stomach punch.

Hat tip to my buddy Joe Bryant for this tidbit in his weekly Random Shot column (you can get this in your inbox by signing up here):

Here's what it's like to be a Seahawks fan these days. Seattle's possessions at Pittsburgh: punt, punt, punt, end of the half, punt, punt, punt, punt, surrendered on downs, punt.

We all know the Seahawks were shut out on Sunday, but that drive chart looked a little odd. Isn't it unusual to get shut out without committing a single turnover? That's a whole new level of ineptitude, I assumed. I was right: only 12 teams since the merger have gone double goose-egg in the points and turnovers column in the same game.

                                                                  

Rk    Tm Year       Date  Opp  W  G Day Result   PF PA  PD  Yrd TO

1    SEA 2011 2011-09-18  PIT  2  2 Sun L 0-24    0 24 -24  164

2    KAN 2010 2010-12-12  SDG 14 13 Sun L 0-31    0 31 -31   67

3    TEN 2008 2008-12-28  IND 17 16 Sun L 0-23    0 23 -23  125

4    BUF 2007 2007-12-16  CLE 15 14 Sun  L 0-8    0  8  -8  232

5    OAK 2006 2006-11-06  SEA  9  8 Mon L 0-16    0 16 -16  185

6    PIT 2003 2003-12-14  NYJ 15 14 Sun  L 0-6    0  6  -6  231

7    NWE 1992 1992-12-06  IND 14 13 Sun  L 0-6    0  6  -6   94

8    CIN 1979 1979-09-02  DEN  1  1 Sun L 0-10    0 10 -10  232

9    SDG 1977 1977-11-06  DET  8  8 Sun L 0-20    0 20 -20  229

10   NYG 1976 1976-10-31  PHI  8  8 Sun L 0-10    0 10 -10  291

11   ATL 1974 1974-11-10  RAM  9  9 Sun L 0-21    0 21 -21  164

12   NYJ 1971 1971-09-19  BAL  1  1 Sun L 0-22    0 22 -22  118

And even that is probably misleading. The '08 Titans game was the last game of the season, when the 13-2 Titans benched most of their starters (of course, so did the Colts). The Cleveland-Buffalo game from '07 took place during a snowstorm, as was the Steelers-Jets game in '03. That makes it just the fourth game in the last 30 years where a team didn't commit a turnover and still was shutout, and couldn't even come up with a good excuse.

This week's post reads like a quick hits column. A few notes:

• Cam Newton and Tom Brady put up ridiculous numbers in week one and then did it again in week two.

• The Lions had the biggest win in franchise history since.... well, the last big win in franchise history.

• Teams are adding insult to injury when facing the Chiefs

• Profiles in futility: the Andrew Luck sweepstakes began in earnest in week two. One team has been outscored by 79 points; another has lost double-digit halftime leads twice this season; a third has lost 16 of its last 19 road games, with every single loss coming by double digits. A fourth team has now lost 11 of 12 home games, while a fifth team gave the Cleveland Browns their second double-digit victory in their last 62 road games.

File this in the "everything is bigger in Texas, including the optimism" department. From a reader:

With what looks like a "in and out" type of year for Arian Foster, Ben Tate looks poised to be the 4th 1000 yard rusher on the Texans roster (joining Foster, Derrick Ward and Steve Slaton). How many teams have had 4 1000 yard rushers on their team?

213 players in NFL history have rushed for 1,000 yards in a season. Where would the 2011 Texans rank if Tate breaks the millenium mark?

Houston would become the tenth team (and eighth unique team) to boast four such runners; no team has ever had five:

When it comes to grading teams or analyzing games, I like to do so by looking at past performance and key statistical indicators. Objectivity is the name of the game. After one week, though, that's not really an option. So I figured I'd change course and, if you guys don't mind, shoot straight from the gut, giving my thoughts on each of the 16 games this weekend. (If you guys do mind, that's why this was placed in the 'totally useless' category.) I may not even do this next week, but that won't stop me from structuring this article in such a way to make it look like an every week column.

Games I like

Seattle @ Pittsburgh (-14.5): As everyone knows, the Seahawks are running into a buzzsaw this week. Cross-country road trip traveling west to east, 1:00 game, and against an angry and focused Steelers team. The last time Seattle went to Pittsburgh was four years ago, with that game also scheduled with a 1:00 kickoff. Coincidentally, 2007 was also the last time the Seahawks were respectable (SRS score of +1.8; they've had an SRS score of -7.5 or worse every year since then). That game was still an ugly 21-0 Pittsburgh victory, and I expect the same on Sunday. SRS said Pittsburgh was 19.6 points better than Seattle last year, which roughly translates to a 24 point-line, in my opinion, given the location and time of the game. Pittsburgh looked terrible against Baltimore, but I'm more than willing to give the Steelers the benefit of the doubt. Pittsburgh won't have 7 turnovers again this week, and while Vegas is trying to elicit action on the Seahawks thanks to that extra half-point on the line, I'm not falling for it. Pittsburgh covers and wins easily.

Kansas City @ Detroit (-9): Nine points is a lot for Detroit to give: the Lions haven't been favored by as much as a touchdown since week 17 of the 2000 season. On the other hand, most of those games were started by someone other than Matthew Stafford. The Lions had a very difficult schedule in 2010, while the Chiefs had an easy one; as a result, Detroit's SRS grade was 2.6 points higher than Kansas City's in 2010. Tack on HFA, and a line of 9 isn't unreasonable given what we saw in week one. Jamaal Charles indoors could be scary, but I don't like anything that's going on in Kansas City. The Lions should win this one easily -- although I can't say I'm not frightened at the prospect of taking the Lions.

Once again, Pro-Football-Reference.com will be teaming up with the New York Times and the New York Times' Fifth Down Blog. Every Tuesday on the Fifth Down blog and every Wednesday in print, we'll be running a weekly article discussing trends and statistical in the NFL.

Today's article looks at how we should predict the rest of the season for the Bills and Chiefs. I wrote a similar article this time last year here on the blog, when I wondered if the Seattle Seahawks were in for a huge year after throttling the 49ers. My conclusion?

As good as Seattle looked on Sunday, the evidence isn't very compelling that they're going to look more like they did in week 1 than they did for most of 2009. It's tempting to think that this is the sign of a new era in Seattle, but it's more likely a sign of the same old era in San Francisco.

But I'm slightly more optimistic about the Bills, in part because they really weren't that bad last season. As I wrote for the Fifth Down:

Buffalo had the hardest schedule in the A.F.C. last season, while the Chiefs had the conference’s most forgiving slate of opponents. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the difference between the Bills’ and the Chiefs’ schedules was worth, on average, 7.5 points per week. Consider this: both franchises went winless in 2010 against teams with 10 or more wins (Buffalo, 0-9; K.C. 0-2, including playoffs). Each team won 75 percent of its games against teams with six or fewer wins (Buffalo 3-1; K.C. 6-2). Against teams with seven to nine wins, the Bills went 1-1 with Fitzpatrick at quarterback (1-2 over all), while the Chiefs went 4-3.

You can read the full article here.

No one knows how the Colts will look without Peyton Manning. And we're about to find out much sooner than anyone in Indianapolis ever expected. Yesterday, Manning went under his third neck surgery in 19 months, and is expected to miss most, if not all, of the season. If Manning is indeed out for the year, what should we expect?

• A few years ago, Doug noted that the average starting quarterback is worth 2.3 points, or about a win per season. A useful starting point, but no one has ever confused Manning with an 'average starting quarterback.'

• Brian Burke says that the entire Colts passing offense -- of which Manning is the central figure -- is worth about 3.8 wins per season.

• Jason Lisk looked at how other teams have fared when their HOF quarterbacks went down, and concluded that the Colts would not be nearly as bad as people think if Manning missed just a few games, and that Kerry Collins will put up near league average numbers. Still, he only projects the Colts to go 6-10.

I'm less optimistic than most. I'm not going out on a limb if I tell you that the Colts are going to implode, but I think that's what's going to happen. If Manning is gone for 16 games, I would probably take the "under" even at 6 wins.

What should we expect from the Jets this year? New York has appeared in the AFC Championship Game in each of the past two seasons, but two bad halves (second against Indianapolis, first against Pittsburgh) prevented the Jets from making the Super Bowl. Every year with Rex Ryan is a "Super Bowl or bust" type of season: do the Jets have what it takes to meet those expectations in 2011?

Vegas views the Jets as one of the league's contenders: with a projection of 10 wins, the Jets land in the top quarter of the league. The odds say New England is the favorite, with the Steelers slightly behind the Patriots, and the Jets, Chargers and Ravens just behind Pittsburgh to win the AFC. Those five teams are the class of the conference, now that there's a Peyton Manningless-Indianapolis.

Most observers put the Jets in that 3-5 range among the AFC's heavyweights. But a full preview of the 2011 Jets should start by taking a look at both the 2009 and 2010 editions.

2009 vs. 2010 Jets

The 2009 Jets shocked a lot of people by getting to the AFC Championship Game; after all, the Jets started the season 7-7. New York flipped the script in 2010, starting the year 9-2, the second best start in franchise history. But the records belie their reality: the 2009 Jets were a bit better than their 9-7 record while the 2010 Jets may not have been as good as their 11-5 mark.

Dick Stanfel

Jack Butler

From Fifth Down friend Andy Barall:

The Hall of Fame seniors committee named Dick Stanfel and Jack Butler on Wednesday as finalists for election in the class of 2012. To be elected, they need the same 80 percent support as the modern era finalists when the full selection committee meets in Indianapolis on Feb. 4, the day before Super Bowl 46. A few thoughts about the nominees:

Although his playing career lasted only seven seasons, Dick Stanfel left his mark as one of the finest and most consistent offensive linemen of his time. In an era that valued technique over brute strength, Stanfel was fundamentally sound enough to be elected first team All-Pro five times and to be named to the N.F.L.’s all-decade team of the 1950s....

Read the rest of this entry »

In my opinion, Jerry Rice is the greatest football player ever. His records are so incredibly, absurdly, ridiculously unbelievable that you can't throw enough adjectives and adverbs his way. But with Larry Fitzgerald signing his enormous-but-justifiable megadeal with the Arizona Cardinals this past weekend, I wondered if he could one day challenge Rice's records. After all, Fitzgerald entered the league at a very young age and has been almost dominant since then. He turns 28-years-old a week from today.

Rice was the most dominant receiver through age 34 in league history. He ranks 1st in touchdowns, receiving yards and receiving yards per game through that age. Last year, Tony Gonzalez passed him in receptions through age 34, 1069 to 1050, dropping Rice into second place in that category. Of course, that's because Gonzalez entered the league at 21 while Rice didn't start playing until age 23. Rice was in his 12th season at age 34, and he laps the field in even more embarrassing fashion in receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns and yards per game through twelve seasons.

At age 35, Rice tore his ACL in week one, causing him to miss nearly the entire season. In dramatic fashion, Rice came back for MNF in week 16 and scored a touchdown, helping him become the only player to catch a touchdown in 20 seasons.

Jason Lisk has started a series titled "A Thought about the ..." for each of the 32 teams in the league, as part of his NFL preview for the Big Lead. Today, he takes his thoughts to St. Louis, and cites my somewhat controversial article on Bradford from earlier this week.

Jason Lisk takes a different look at the Rams' success.

So, what I looked at for this is other teams where the defensive points allowed improved dramatically from one year to the next. The Rams last year went from next to last in 2009, 31st in points allowed, to 12th in the league. I found all teams since 1978 who improved at least 15 spots in their points allowed ranking in the league. I then went deeper into those teams, and isolated two different types. The first, we’ll call the “Bradford effects”, which found all teams that had a different QB (who had never been the main starter for that franchise prior) during the dramatic improvement season, and that same new QB was also the starter a year later. The second, we’ll call the “Manning effects”, since he shows up 3 times on the list, and this is for all teams that had a dramatic improvement from one year to the next, and the same QB was the starter before, during, and after the points allowed improvement.

Obviously, we don’t think Peyton Manning has an impact on his defenses–he’s played with good ones and bad ones and everything in between during his career. Same with Marino and Elway and Brady and Montana and all the other guys that show up on this list. If a team dramatically improves during the middle of a QB’s career, we are less likely to attribute that to the quarterback.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tennessee running back Chris Johnson is currently holding out of training camp because he wants more money. A lot more money. Some think that isn't a prudent decision for the Titans. As a running back, Johnson might wear down in a year or two and will therefore be overpaid over the life of his contract. I'll resist the urge to go on another rant on rookie salaries -- owners and GMs argue that rookies don't deserve big bucks because they're unproven and that veterans don't deserve big bucks because their future potential is limited -- and instead look at a question posed by Ryan Wilson at Cbssports.

Look, there's no disputing that Johnson and Adrian Peterson are the two best running backs in the NFL. But the difference between them and the NFL's 32nd-best back is negligible when compared to the differences between, say, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning and whoever your candidate is for the league's worst starting quarterback. The same holds for wide receivers, left tackles, cornerbacks, safeties -- basically every position but running back.

So why is that?

Read the rest of this entry »

Sam Bradford's rookie season has been incredibly overrated by nearly every football writer and talking head. If you wanted the perfect storm of a formula that would spit out an overrated rookie quarterback, you would want to have a quarterback who:

• Finished near the top of the league in attempts, overinflating his yards and touchdown metrics. Yards and touchdowns aren't good ways to grade quarterbacks, but that doesn't stop people from doing just that;

• Played for a team with just a couple of wins in the prior year, so the quarterback would get credit for any regression to the mean in the form of a significant increase in wins;

• Played a really weak schedule that boosted the quarterback's individual stats and team wins; and

• Played for a team whose defense got a lot better without adding any big names, so people can just think "what's the difference between them this year and last year? That rookie QB and not much else."

Some rookie quarterbacks will have some of those factors working in their favor, but Bradford has all four. This isn't a post blasting Bradford as much as it is blasting the Bradford backers. One of those includes the normally outstanding Mike Tanier, who thought Bradford had one of the best rookie seasons of all time. Kurt Warner thinks Bradford is going to be a superstar. Fantasy football fans are drafting him as the 15th quarterback in standard leagues. Article have been written based on the notion that the Rams have already drafted a future Super Bowl winner. Bradford's part-Aikman, part-Montana, part-Manning and part-Matt Ryan, but calling him part-Unitas would be too much.

I'm an unabashed Lee Evans fan. In Febrruary 2009, I ran a series of posts discussing the greatest wide receivers in pro football history. I argued that it was necessary to adjust wide receiver stats based on team attempts, as otherwise wide receivers in pass-happy offenses would hold an unfair advantage over receivers playing in more run-oriented schemes. But I was shocked to find that in 2006, Evans ranked as the number one receiver in football. His numbers were good but not overwhelming -- Evans had 82 catches for 1,292 yards and 8 touchdowns; he ranked 6th in the NFL in receiving yards. To be fair, a lot of receivers had down years in '06, but still, I couldn't figure out why Evans came out on top. The reason, of course, was that Buffalo ranked just 31st in pass attempts that year. As a result, his 6th place ranking ended up being the most impressive season by any receiver that year.

But Evans has put together a string of disappointing seasons since then. The question is, how much of that is Evans' fault and how much blame can go on the collection of talent the Bills have put together? Buffalo has struggled to get even average production out of its offensive lineman and quarterbacks over the past five years. In fact, take a look at the passers for the Bills since Evans entered the league:

Vince Lombardi has been a football icon for half a century. Lombardi and W.C. Heinz penned Run to Daylight in 1963, a blueprint for success for football coaches at all levels. Five years later, Jerry Kramer's diary, Instant Replay, offered the first real insight underneath the veneer of the coaching legend. David Maraniss' book, When Pride Still Mattered, first published in 1999, set a new standard for sports biographies.

Last December, NFL Films and HBO created a documentary exploring the life and career of the great coach. Two months earlier, the coach came to Broadway in the fantastic play Lombardi -- which I had the pleasure of seeing -- loosely based on Maraniss' work. In February, Al Pacino is going to "Hooah", mail-it-in, and over-act as Lombardi in an ESPN documentary to be aired the week before the Super Bowl.

Perhaps no coach has been as idolized and well-chronicled as the man whose name is on the Super Bowl trophy. ESPN and NFL Network have played certain clips so many times that you can close your eyes and hear sports anchors mimic the phrase ""a seal here...and a seal here." With so much on the great coach, what separates John Eisenberg's That First Season: How Vince Lombardi Took the Worst Team in the NFL and Set It on the Path to Glory?

I understand why the hyped teams in the NFC are Philadelphia and Green Bay. The Eagles had the most dynamic football player in football last season, a reformed Michael Vick. Prior to 2010, no player had ever averaged 40 rushing yards per game and 240 passing yards per game in the same season; Vick averaged 252 passing yards and 56 rushing yards in a scorched-earth, twelve-game stint in 2010. Since then, the Eagles added arguably the best cornerback in the league, Nnamdi Asomugha, in addition to bringing in DT Cullen Jenkins (from GB), DE Jason Babin (Ten), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Ari), Vince Young (Ten), Ronnie Brown (Mia) and Ryan Harris (Den). Joined by Asante Samuel, the Eagles have an embarrassment of riches at the cornerback spot, key for a team that will have to contend with a dominant passing attack to get to the Super Bowl.

But no one is doubting the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, either. In addition to being a young team, Green Bay lost more key players to more games due to injury than any Super Bowl champion in recent memory. The Packers recaptured the Lombardi despite TE Jermichael Finley, RB Ryan Grant, DE Mike Neal and S Morgan Burnett, among others, all spending most of the year on injured reserve. The Packers led the NFC in SRS by a mile -- don't be fooled by that 6 seed they earned -- and there's reason for optimism for the future. Eight of the top ten players in AV for the Packers were 27 years or younger last season: Clay Matthews, Aaron Rodgers, Nick Collins, Greg Jennings, Tramon Williams, A.J. Hawk, B.J. Raji and Desmond Bishop are entering the primes of their careers. And while Charles Woodson and Chad Clifton will be 35 this season, both played well in 2010.

But I'm in love with what the Saints did this off-season. This team looks to be better than the '09 team that won the Super Bowl, and would be my pre-season favorite to win it all. Here's an extensive look at what the Saints have done over the last 2.5 years. Let's start by taking a look at the key contributors from the championship team:

Everyone knows that quarterback rating is flawed. Everyone has known this for a long time. But because of the drawbacks to other statistics -- touchdowns, wins, interceptions, yards -- QB rating has persevered as the most mainstream singular statistic for grading quarterbacks. PFR has used Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt; Advanced NFL Stats using Expected Points Added; Football Outsiders uses DYAR. Now, ESPN takes its turn at measuring quarterback play.

The actual formula behind quarterback rating is complicated, but it can be reduced to a simple formula. That's what Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer and John Thorn discovered in their groundbreaking book, The Hidden Game of Football. Essentially, QB rating is equivalent to yards per attempt, but with a 20-yard-bonus for each completion, an 80-yard-bonus for each touchdown, and a 100-yard-penalty for an interception. Such adjustments should seem ridiculous to every reader, which is why everyone finds quarterback rating ridiculous. By way of comparison, PFR's ANY/A formula -- in addition to including relevant data on sacks -- gives no bonus for completions, a 20-yard bonus for touchdowns and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions.

But on Thursday, ESPN released the methodology behind its new QB Rating. And last night, ESPN aired an hour-long segment at 8 PM to discuss the new formula. So how does ESPN's formula look?

There's some good and some bad, which means it has exceeded my expectation. As Jason Lisk said, ESPN will promote it ad nauseum but it should have value. It's not perfect, but it's almost certainly better than the traditional passer rating and possibly the best single statistic out there. Here's my take.

Over the weekend, the New York Jets signed Plaxico Burress as a cheaper alternative to fill the void left by Braylon Edwards. Buress and Edwards have had very similar career paths: From Michigan to Lake Erie to New York, these tall wide receivers have been in the news and teasing us with their talents for a decade. How do they compare?

Category                   Buress              Edwards              Edge

Ht/Wt                      6'5, 226            6'3, 211             Burress

Michigan School            Michigan State      Michigan             Push (MSU under Nick Saban)

Sophomore year             65--1013--8         67--1035--10         Push

Junior Year                66--1142--12        85--1138--14         Edwards

Senior Year                Entered Draft       97--1330--15         N/A

1st-team All-Conf.         Twice               Twice                Push

Last college game          13--185-3 in 37-34  10--109--3 in 38-37
                           win over Florida    loss to Texas        Burress

College hardware           Two Bowl MVPs       Biletnikoff Award    Edwards

Drafted by Lake Erie       Pittsburgh          Cleveland            Burress
franchise in…   

Third year breakout        78-1325-7           80-1289-16           Edwards

Breakout more impressive   Tommy Maddox        Derek Anderson       Edwards
because he played with   

Found out the hard way:    NFL rules, college  Helmet can't be used 
                           rules, different    as a reception device Burress


Touchdown rate             Every 9.2 catches   Every 8.4 catches    Edwards

Guilty of...               Criminal possession Driving while
                           of a weapon         intoxicated          Edwards

Super Bowls + Pro Bowls    One                 One                  Push

Brush with greatness       Game-winning TD to  Fisticuffs with 
                           defeat Pats in SB   LeBron's entourage   Burress

Edwards just edges out Burress, 6 to 5. But Jets fans -- and fantasy football owners -- are forward thinking. They want to know how Burress will play in 2011. As usual, I don't know, and you don't know. At this point, it's wild speculation. But we can look to the past to get some sense as to what sort of path Burress' career might take.