I’d like to think that a lot of what we write about here on the blog can be just as interesting today as it was when it was written. And since we have other things in the works but nothing new today, here are some oldies from the blog that may still be of interest (and certainly, this is not an exclusive list). I know some of you have been reading for years, and this may be old stuff, but it may be new to some of you. Here are a sampling of oldies that should have some relevance for the upcoming season.
Back in June 2006, Doug took a quick look at coaching changes and lurking variables, and whether teams that change coaches are more likely to improve than those that keep the same coach. Since that was written, 24 teams finished with 5 or fewer wins (2005-2007). 12 changed coaches; 12 did not. The updated numbers for the 0-3 win group are 18-1-0 (improve-same-decline) for the changers and 10-1-2 for the same coaches. For the 4-5 win group, the numbers are 21-0-3 for the changers, and 35-6-10 for the same coaches. Interestingly, of the twelve coaches who returned to start the next season after winning five or fewer games, eleven are already gone. Only Jeff Fisher is still coaching.
In July 2007, in my first official post on the PFR blog, I looked at teams moving into new stadiums, and how they enjoyed strong home field advantages in their second years in the new stadiums. That post was written in regard to the upcoming Cardinals season, and Arizona would end up going 6-2 at home and 2-6 on the road. Adding in the Cardinals to the previous data, the second year in a new stadium winning percentage is 0.628 at home and 0.391 on the road, for a +0.236 differential. For Colts fans out there, this is year two in Lucas Oil Stadium. If history is an indicator, look for the Colts to show a stronger home field advantage in 2009 now that they have a year of experience.
In September 2007, Chase asked “how much does week one matter” and then came up with a formula looking at projected wins, winning percentage through each week, and winning percentage over remainder of season. The short answer, a team's expected wins (based on the previous year's simple rating system rating) is 6 times more important than the week 1 result in predicting what will happen over the rest of the season.
Last August, Doug embarked upon the question “what is a starting quarterback worth”, by looking at QB start data and points scored. It’s a must read for those who are soon to be freaking out when their starter goes down. As an aside, I’m pretty sure Doug is responsible for the Brady injury, as he dared to hypothetically ask what New England would do without Tom Brady, concluding, ultimately, that they would be a solid 10 or maybe 11 win team without Brady.