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Team first round summaries
Random facts about the NFL draft since 1978:
- The Rams have taken nine running backs in the first round; no other team has taken more than six. How many of those Ram runners can you name off the top of your head in under 30 seconds?
- Two teams have drafted three tight ends in the first round: the Jets (Anthony Becht, Kyle Brady, and Johnny Mitchell) and Steelers (Heath Miller, Mark Breuner, and Eric Green). Twelve teams have never (since 1978) drafted a first-round tight end.
- The Redskins have been allergic to the draft for far longer than Dan Snyder has been calling the shots. They have had the fewest first round picks (18) among all teams that have been in existence for the entire period. Denver (22) has the next fewest. The Bengals (36) have the most.
- The Colts have drafted four first round quarterbacks. The first three were Art Schlichter, John Elway, and Jeff George. Ryan Leaf would have fit in well with this group.
- Only two teams have never (since 1978) taken a first round quarterback. They are the Rams and Saints.
- The team who has spent the greatest percentage of its first rounders on offense has been the Lions. The most historically defense oriented team in the first round has been the Cowboys, who have drafted more defensive linemen in the first round than offensive players combined.
- It's interesting that the Steelers, a team generally known for good defenses, have spent far more of their first round picks on offense, while the 49ers have spent the majority of their picks on defense.
Here's the data:
QB RB WR TE OL OFF DL LB DB DEF TOT
====+=======================+=================+========
cin | 4 3 4 0 6 17 | 10 6 3 19 | 36
nwe | 2 6 3 2 8 21 | 7 2 5 14 | 35
ram | 0 9 3 0 6 18 | 7 3 5 15 | 33
clt | 4 5 4 2 2 17 | 5 7 3 15 | 32
gnb | 2 3 3 1 6 15 | 4 6 7 17 | 32
crd | 2 3 4 0 5 14 | 7 5 4 16 | 31
det | 3 4 6 1 6 20 | 3 4 4 11 | 31
chi | 4 5 4 0 4 17 | 8 3 3 14 | 31
rai | 2 2 2 1 6 13 | 6 2 9 17 | 31
nyj | 2 3 4 3 5 17 | 6 6 2 14 | 31
buf | 2 6 4 1 5 18 | 3 2 8 13 | 31
pit | 2 3 5 3 6 19 | 5 1 5 11 | 30
sfo | 2 4 3 2 2 13 | 7 5 5 17 | 30
sea | 2 3 2 1 7 15 | 7 2 6 15 | 30
atl | 2 4 4 1 4 15 | 5 3 6 14 | 29
kan | 2 5 2 2 6 17 | 6 3 2 11 | 28
nyg | 2 6 3 2 5 18 | 4 2 4 10 | 28
min | 1 5 2 0 4 12 | 12 2 2 16 | 28
phi | 1 2 3 1 7 14 | 9 1 3 13 | 27
nor | 0 6 3 1 6 16 | 7 2 1 10 | 27
dal | 1 1 3 1 2 8 | 11 3 4 18 | 26
sdg | 2 4 2 1 2 11 | 4 3 7 14 | 25
tam | 3 3 2 0 6 14 | 6 4 1 11 | 25
mia | 1 5 3 0 5 14 | 5 1 5 11 | 25
oti | 3 4 2 0 5 14 | 4 3 3 10 | 24
cle | 1 4 3 2 2 12 | 2 6 4 12 | 24
den | 2 2 3 0 3 10 | 4 4 4 12 | 22
was | 3 0 4 0 3 10 | 2 1 5 8 | 18
jax | 1 2 3 1 1 8 | 3 1 2 6 | 14
car | 1 2 1 0 2 6 | 2 1 4 7 | 13
rav | 1 1 2 1 1 6 | 3 1 3 7 | 13
htx | 1 0 1 0 0 2 | 3 0 1 4 | 6
QB RB WR TE
==========+============+============+=========
clt 4 | ram 9 | det 6 | nyj 3
cin 4 | nor 6 | pit 5 | pit 3
chi 4 | nyg 6 | nyj 4 | sfo 2
oti 3 | buf 6 | was 4 | kan 2
det 3 | nwe 6 | crd 4 | nyg 2
tam 3 | clt 5 | cin 4 | cle 2
was 3 | chi 5 | chi 4 | clt 2
sdg 2 | mia 5 | buf 4 | nwe 2
nyg 2 | min 5 | clt 4 | atl 1
atl 2 | kan 5 | atl 4 | rai 1
crd 2 | oti 4 | nwe 3 | buf 1
nwe 2 | det 4 | nor 3 | phi 1
sea 2 | cle 4 | gnb 3 | sdg 1
sfo 2 | atl 4 | dal 3 | gnb 1
kan 2 | sdg 4 | ram 3 | det 1
gnb 2 | sfo 4 | phi 3 | nor 1
buf 2 | crd 3 | cle 3 | dal 1
den 2 | tam 3 | sfo 3 | jax 1
pit 2 | nyj 3 | jax 3 | sea 1
rai 2 | sea 3 | nyg 3 | rav 1
nyj 2 | gnb 3 | mia 3 | oti 0
htx 1 | cin 3 | den 3 | crd 0
cle 1 | pit 3 | sea 2 | htx 0
dal 1 | phi 2 | min 2 | ram 0
phi 1 | jax 2 | sdg 2 | tam 0
car 1 | rai 2 | rai 2 | chi 0
jax 1 | car 2 | tam 2 | min 0
min 1 | den 2 | kan 2 | mia 0
rav 1 | rav 1 | rav 2 | car 0
mia 1 | dal 1 | oti 2 | den 0
ram 0 | htx 0 | htx 1 | was 0
nor 0 | was 0 | car 1 | cin 0
OL DL LB DB
==========+============+============+=========
nwe 8 | min 12 | clt 7 | rai 9
phi 7 | dal 11 | nyj 6 | buf 8
sea 7 | cin 10 | cin 6 | sdg 7
nor 6 | phi 9 | cle 6 | gnb 7
tam 6 | chi 8 | gnb 6 | atl 6
cin 6 | crd 7 | crd 5 | sea 6
det 6 | nwe 7 | sfo 5 | was 5
gnb 6 | ram 7 | tam 4 | ram 5
ram 6 | sea 7 | det 4 | pit 5
rai 6 | nor 7 | den 4 | mia 5
kan 6 | sfo 7 | sdg 3 | sfo 5
pit 6 | kan 6 | atl 3 | nwe 5
oti 5 | tam 6 | kan 3 | det 4
nyj 5 | nyj 6 | chi 3 | cle 4
crd 5 | rai 6 | ram 3 | crd 4
buf 5 | clt 5 | oti 3 | dal 4
nyg 5 | atl 5 | dal 3 | nyg 4
mia 5 | mia 5 | nyg 2 | den 4
atl 4 | pit 5 | buf 2 | car 4
chi 4 | gnb 4 | sea 2 | chi 3
min 4 | oti 4 | nwe 2 | rav 3
den 3 | sdg 4 | nor 2 | oti 3
was 3 | nyg 4 | min 2 | cin 3
sdg 2 | den 4 | rai 2 | clt 3
cle 2 | rav 3 | jax 1 | phi 3
car 2 | jax 3 | was 1 | nyj 2
clt 2 | htx 3 | car 1 | min 2
sfo 2 | det 3 | mia 1 | kan 2
dal 2 | buf 3 | pit 1 | jax 2
jax 1 | cle 2 | phi 1 | htx 1
rav 1 | car 2 | rav 1 | nor 1
htx 0 | was 2 | htx 0 | tam 1
10 Comments | Posted in History, NFL Draft
Consistent franchises (the other kind)
Last week I posted this collection of data that I thought characterized the consistent and inconsistent franchises of the 16-game-schedule era.
A few readers remarked that the word "consistent" implies some sort of year-to-year consistency. I hadn't intended to measure that with the previous post but it's equally interesting to look at. A reader named Yaguar proposed the following methodology:
Now, what you measure is win difference over each 2 year period, and then average them. So take the 1999-2000 Colts, who regressed from 13-3 to 10-6. That’s a win difference of 3 for 1999-2000. (Note that you’re taking absolute value, so there can’t be negative changes in wins.) For 2000-2001 and 2001-2002, they have win differences of 4 both times, going from 10-6 to 6-10 to 10-6. So from 1999-2002, the Colts have an average win difference of 3.33.
I think that hits the spot pretty well, so I'll just run the numbers.
Since 1978, arranged from most consistent to least:
Avg 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
==============================================
crd 1.8 1 3 6 5 7 6
phi 2.0 1 1 1 3 3 6 8 5
dal 2.1 1 1 5 4 4 6 7
mia 2.1 1 1 4 3 7 10 2
gnb 2.1 2 1 4 3 9 2 7
sea 2.1 2 4 4 8 6 4
min 2.3 2 2 2 3 9 8 2
rai 2.4 2 5 4 6 9 2
oti 2.4 1 1 1 4 3 3 7 8
was 2.6 1 4 4 5 5 5 4
pit 2.6 1 1 6 7 4 8 1
cle 2.6 1 2 5 2 6 7 1
kan 2.6 3 1 6 3 6 7 2
tam 2.6 2 1 3 4 3 4 7 4
nor 2.7 3 1 1 2 7 3 8 3
cin 2.7 1 4 1 4 3 4 6 5
jax 2.7 1 1 2 2 1 2 2
buf 2.8 1 4 5 6 5 4 3
rav 2.8 1 1 4 2 2
chi 2.9 1 1 3 2 5 8 4 4
det 2.9 3 1 4 2 3 4 10 1
den 2.9 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 4
sdg 3.0 1 2 3 4 7 2 7 2
nwe 3.0 1 1 1 4 5 2 5 6 3
htx 3.0 1 1 1 1
ram 3.0 1 1 1 3 4 4 5 9
nyj 3.1 1 1 2 1 8 3 5 4 3
clt 3.1 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 5 6 4
nyg 3.3 1 2 7 4 3 6 4 1
atl 3.3 1 1 3 3 4 5 6 3 2
sfo 3.4 2 1 1 4 6 4 4 4 2
car 4.1 2 2 4 2 1
The first number is the average win difference that Yaguar explained. The following string of numbers are the number of times the given team has had each given win difference. Take the Cardinals, for instance. Six times, their record stayed constant from one year to the next, seven times it changed by one game (one way or the other), five times it changed by two games, and so on.
As could be expected, there are some similarities between this list and the other one. The Cardinals show as the most consistent on both lists, and Miami, Seattle, and Minnesota are near the top on both as well, while the 49ers, Colts, and Rams look inconsistent either way.
The Cowboys are an interesting case, though. They rank as one of the least consistent franchises by the other method and one of the most by this one. This means that they've experienced some high highs and low lows, but that they have transitioned gradually between them. Denver represents the other side of the spectrum: a team whose win totals have generally stayed within a comparatively narrow band over a long period (24 of their last 29 seasons have been between 8 and 13 wins inclusive), but have jumped around a lot within that band from year to year.
Consistent franchises
In the comments to Friday's post, PackerNation observed:
Look at the Jets….they’re 6-10 or 10-6 or somewhere in between every year
And indeed, they have been in that range for 8 of the past 10 seasons. Apologies to PackerNation for lifting his quote out of its context, but I wasn't interested as much by the context as by the the fact that it gave me an idea. Namely, which franchises have been the most and least consistent over the past several seasons?
So I decided to calculate each teams' standard deviation of seasonal wins since 1978. As is typical, I made a guess about what the answer was going to be before I ran the query. As is very from from typical, my guesses were pretty close.
I immediately thought the 49ers would turn out to the be least consistent team; they've been way up and way back down a few times over the last few decades. They've got as many Lombardi trophies and less-than-5-win-seasons combined as they have between-6-and-10-win seasons. They do indeed have the highest standard deviation: 3.96 wins. Other inconsistent franchises include the Colts, Titans, Patriots, and Bears.
You might think the 49ers have the highest average number of wins during the period in question, but they don't. In fact, there are three teams with higher winning percentages and, oddly enough, all three of those teams rank among the most consistent franchises. They are the Dolphins, Broncos, and Steelers. The Dolphins, for what it's worth, were my guess at most consistent.
But the Dolphins have not, in fact, been the most consistent. No, the most consistent team is also the worst (not counting the Texans). It's the Cardinals, of course, and in my mind this obliterates any argument that Lion or Bengal fans think they might have in a franchise futility contest.
I'll close with a fun chart:
========== Number of N-win seasons ============
AvWins StDev 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
==================+===============================================
crd 5.91 1.69 | 4 1 6 3 9 5 1
htx 4.80 1.72 | 1 1 1 1 1
mia 9.53 2.12 | 1 5 4 4 7 5 2 1
sea 8.02 2.14 | 1 1 3 9 4 5 4 1 1
min 8.48 2.19 | 1 3 3 10 4 3 3 1 1
den 9.65 2.41 | 1 3 2 5 5 4 5 1 1 1 1
pit 9.44 2.42 | 1 1 1 2 6 2 7 2 3 3 1
kan 8.37 2.46 | 3 2 4 6 3 4 3 2 2
det 6.41 2.53 | 1 2 5 2 4 2 7 2 2 2
phi 8.80 2.60 | 1 3 5 7 1 1 5 2 3 1
rav 8.32 2.63 | 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1
gnb 8.37 2.65 | 2 2 2 4 5 6 3 1 4
nyj 7.52 2.66 | 1 3 4 4 5 2 4 4 1 1
atl 6.90 2.69 | 1 1 1 2 3 2 6 3 4 3 3
nor 7.31 2.70 | 1 1 1 3 2 6 7 2 1 1 3 1
cle 7.05 2.72 | 1 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 2 1
nyg 8.22 2.74 | 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 6 1 3
tam 6.54 2.80 | 1 2 3 3 1 2 5 6 2 1 3
was 8.64 2.88 | 3 2 1 6 3 4 2 4 2 1 1
rai 8.40 2.88 | 1 4 3 2 4 5 4 2 3 1
car 7.50 2.90 | 1 2 2 5 1 1
jax 8.50 2.93 | 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1
cin 6.68 2.94 | 3 1 1 1 6 4 2 1 5 4 1
sdg 7.77 2.97 | 1 2 4 1 4 5 1 4 2 4 1
ram 8.00 3.01 | 1 1 2 3 4 2 2 2 5 3 3 1
buf 8.05 3.05 | 2 2 3 4 2 3 5 2 2 1 1 2
dal 8.87 3.05 | 1 7 3 4 3 1 3 2 3 1 1
chi 8.38 3.20 | 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 5 3 4 3
nwe 8.46 3.24 | 2 1 5 4 7 2 2 3 2 1
oti 8.01 3.30 | 2 2 4 4 2 4 3 3 1 1 3
clt 7.15 3.62 | 1 1 3 3 4 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 2
sfo 9.40 3.96 | 1 4 3 3 2 6 2 2 1 2 3
Fine print: a "10-win-season" is actually one in which the team's winning percentage, when multiplied by 16, gets rounded to 10. Likewise, the AvWins and StDev columns in the chart above are actually 16*AvWinPct and 16*StDevOfWinPct, respectively. All this junk is only relevant for strike years and seasons that have ties.
13 Comments | Posted in General, History
All-time franchise leaders
People frequently request this feature at the site.
My database is about 99.5% complete from 1960 to the present and contains most of the all-time greats (e.g. Don Hutson) whose careers ended in the 50s or earlier. So I'm nearly certain I've got these right for the 20 franchises that came into existence in 1960 or later. I suspect that they're mostly correct for the old-time franchises too, but I wouldn't be surprised if I was missing a few guys. If you know of an all-time list for your favorite team, please compare it and let me know if I'm missing anyone.
Lots of fun stuff to be found in here. Enjoy.
NOTE: I tried adding links, but couldn't things to format right. Here is the same list, but linkified.
AZ/STL/CHI Cardinals
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Hart 2590 J Hart 5069 J Hart 34639
N Lomax 1817 N Lomax 3153 N Lomax 22771
J Plummer 1540 J Plummer 2754 J Plummer 17622
C Johnson 1030 C Johnson 2047 C Johnson 14928
J McCown 498 L McHan 1012 L McHan 6578
L McHan 433 J McCown 861 J McCown 5431
S Beuerlein 388 S Beuerlein 673 S Beuerlein 4709
K Warner 350 C Chandler 566 K Warner 4090
C Chandler 322 T Rosenbach 551 T Rosenbach 3676
D Krieg 304 K Warner 543 C Chandler 3592Passing TDs Interceptions
J Hart 209 J Hart 247
N Lomax 136 J Plummer 114
C Johnson 108 C Johnson 110
J Plummer 90 N Lomax 90
L McHan 50 L McHan 77
J Hardy 30 J Hardy 47
J McCown 25 C Trippi 31
S Beuerlein 23 J McCown 29
J Roach 19 S Beuerlein 26
C Chandler 19 T Rosenbach 24Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
O Anderson 1858 O Anderson 7999 O Anderson 46
J Otis 1011 S Mitchell 4649 W Morris 37
S Mitchell 986 J Otis 3863 J Crow 33
J Roland 962 J Roland 3608 S Mitchell 32
W Morris 894 C Trippi 3506 E Angsman 27
J Crow 787 J Crow 3489 J Roland 27
O Matson 761 T Metcalf 3438 P Harder 25
T Metcalf 748 W Morris 3375 E Ferrell 24
C Trippi 687 O Matson 3331 O Matson 24
E Ferrell 685 E Ferrell 2950 T Metcalf 24Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
L Centers 535 R Green 8496 R Green 66
R Green 522 J Smith 7918 S Randle 60
F Sanders 493 P Tilley 7005 M Gray 45
J Smith 480 M Gray 6644 J Smith 40
P Tilley 468 F Sanders 6579 B Conrad 38
B Conrad 418 B Conrad 5828 P Tilley 37
J Smith 377 S Randle 5438 R Moore 27
M Gray 351 R Moore 5110 J Smith 27
A Boldin 342 J Smith 4701 L Fitzgeral 24
S Randle 328 A Boldin 4605 F Sanders 24
Atlanta Falcons
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
S Bartkowsk 1871 S Bartkowsk 3330 S Bartkowsk23470
C Miller 1129 C Miller 2089 C Miller 14066
C Chandler 981 M Vick 1730 C Chandler 13268
M Vick 930 C Chandler 1672 M Vick 11505
J George 714 J George 1180 J George 8575
B Hebert 637 B Hebert 1066 B Berry 8489
B Berry 598 B Berry 1049 B Hebert 7053
R Johnson 435 R Johnson 904 R Johnson 5538
D Archer 331 D Archer 647 D Archer 4275
B Tolliver 215 B Tolliver 404 B Lee 2638Passing TDs Interceptions
S Bartkowsk 154 S Bartkowsk 141
C Miller 87 C Miller 72
C Chandler 87 R Johnson 65
M Vick 71 C Chandler 56
B Berry 57 B Berry 56
B Hebert 50 M Vick 52
J George 50 B Hebert 49
R Johnson 34 J George 32
D Archer 18 D Archer 29
B Tolliver 17 K McQuilken 28Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
G Riggs 1587 G Riggs 6631 G Riggs 48
J Anderson 1329 W Andrews 5986 J Anderson 34
W Andrews 1315 J Anderson 5336 T Duckett 31
W Dunn 1186 W Dunn 5261 W Andrews 30
D Hampton 882 M Vick 3870 W Dunn 26
H Stanback 728 D Hampton 3482 H Stanback 25
C Butler 609 H Stanback 2662 M Vick 21
L Cain 604 L Cain 2263 L Cain 19
T Duckett 552 C Butler 2250 A Malone 18
A Malone 532 C Heyward 2183 D Hampton 17Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Mathis 573 T Mathis 7349 T Mathis 57
A Rison 423 A Jenkins 6267 A Rison 56
A Jenkins 360 A Rison 5633 A Jenkins 40
J Mitchell 305 J Mitchell 4358 M Haynes 34
W Andrews 277 M Haynes 4220 A Crumpler 30
A Crumpler 274 A Crumpler 3768 J Mitchell 28
M Haynes 266 W Francis 3695 W Francis 27
B Emanuel 260 B Emanuel 3600 B Emanuel 24
W Francis 244 S Bailey 3422 K Burrow 21
S Bailey 206 A Jackson 3001 A Jackson 21
Baltimore Ravens
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
V Testaverd 596 K Boller 1036 V Testaverd 7148
K Boller 578 V Testaverd 1019 K Boller 6103
T Banks 319 T Banks 594 T Banks 3714
S McNair 295 S McNair 468 S McNair 3050
E Grbac 265 E Grbac 467 E Grbac 3033
A Wright 258 A Wright 444 A Wright 2781
E Zeier 184 E Zeier 318 E Zeier 2367
J Blake 165 J Blake 295 J Blake 2084
J Harbaugh 164 J Harbaugh 293 J Harbaugh 1839
T Dilfer 133 T Dilfer 225 T Dilfer 1502Passing TDs Interceptions
V Testaverd 51 K Boller 34
K Boller 36 V Testaverd 34
T Banks 25 E Grbac 18
S McNair 16 A Wright 17
E Grbac 15 T Banks 16
A Wright 15 S McNair 12
J Blake 13 T Dilfer 11
E Zeier 12 J Blake 11
T Dilfer 12 J Harbaugh 11
J Harbaugh 12 S Case 8Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Lewis 1822 J Lewis 7801 J Lewis 45
P Holmes 459 P Holmes 2102 P Holmes 10
B Morris 376 C Taylor 1599 B Morris 8
C Taylor 373 B Morris 1511 J Brookins 5
E Rhett 280 E Rhett 1032 E Rhett 5
E Byner 243 E Byner 947 C Taylor 4
T Allen 168 T Allen 658 E Byner 4
J Brookins 151 J Brookins 551 T Allen 3
K Boller 128 J Graham 408 S Case 3
J Graham 116 K Boller 351 J Graham 2Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Heap 316 T Heap 3658 T Heap 26
T Taylor 204 Q Ismail 2819 M Jackson 18
Q Ismail 191 T Taylor 2758 D Alexander 18
M Jackson 183 M Jackson 2596 Q Ismail 18
J Lewis 160 D Alexander 2108 J Lewis 16
D Mason 154 J Lewis 1984 T Taylor 15
S Sharpe 140 D Mason 1823 E Green 7
J Lewis 136 S Sharpe 1621 M Clayton 7
D Alexander 127 M Clayton 1410 B Stokley 7
E Green 114 J Lewis 1365 P Johnson 7
Buffalo Bills
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Kelly 2874 J Kelly 4779 J Kelly 35467
J Ferguson 2188 J Ferguson 4166 J Ferguson 27590
J Kemp 1039 J Kemp 2240 J Kemp 15134
D Bledsoe 905 D Bledsoe 1531 D Bledsoe 10151
D Flutie 598 D Flutie 1063 D Flutie 7582
D Shaw 485 D Shaw 916 D Shaw 6286
R Johnson 401 R Johnson 663 R Johnson 4798
J Losman 384 J Losman 662 J Losman 4423
T Collins 284 T Collins 519 T Collins 3218
A Van Pelt 262 A Van Pelt 477 A Van Pelt 2985Passing TDs Interceptions
J Kelly 237 J Ferguson 190
J Ferguson 181 J Kelly 175
J Kemp 77 J Kemp 132
D Bledsoe 55 D Shaw 67
D Flutie 47 D Bledsoe 43
D Shaw 35 D Flutie 30
J Losman 27 A Van Pelt 24
R Johnson 27 D Lamonica 23
F Reich 18 J Losman 23
D Lamonica 16 D Darragh 22Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
T Thomas 2849 T Thomas 11938 T Thomas 65
O Simpson 2123 O Simpson 10183 O Simpson 57
J Cribbs 1082 J Cribbs 4445 C Gilchrist 31
T Henry 963 T Henry 3849 W Carlton 29
W McGahee 868 W Carlton 3368 T Henry 27
W Carlton 819 W McGahee 3365 A Smith 26
A Smith 760 C Gilchrist 3056 J Kemp 25
J Braxton 721 A Smith 2932 W McGahee 24
C Gilchrist 676 J Braxton 2842 J Braxton 23
G Bell 589 K Davis 2460 K Davis 23Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
A Reed 941 A Reed 13095 A Reed 86
E Moulds 675 E Moulds 9091 E Moulds 48
T Thomas 456 E Dubenion 5294 E Dubenion 35
P Metzelaar 302 F Lewis 4638 B Chandler 34
B Chandler 295 T Thomas 4341 J Butler 29
E Dubenion 294 J Butler 4301 P Price 25
P Price 281 B Chandler 3999 P Metzelaar 25
J Butler 278 P Price 3704 L Evans 24
F Lewis 269 P Metzelaar 2921 F Lewis 24
J Riemersma 204 L Evans 2878 T Thomas 22
Carolina Panthers
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Delhomme 1101 J Delhomme 1848 J Delhomme 13331
S Beuerlein 1041 S Beuerlein 1723 S Beuerlein12690
K Collins 694 K Collins 1339 K Collins 8306
C Weinke 373 C Weinke 687 C Weinke 3800
R Peete 228 R Peete 392 R Peete 2652
F Reich 37 F Reich 84 F Reich 441
J Lewis 18 R Fasani 44 R Fasani 171
M Lytle 17 J Lewis 35 M Lytle 133
R Fasani 15 M Lytle 30 J Lewis 131
J Trudeau 11 J Trudeau 17 J Trudeau 100Passing TDs Interceptions
J Delhomme 89 J Delhomme 58
S Beuerlein 86 K Collins 54
K Collins 47 S Beuerlein 50
R Peete 15 C Weinke 26
C Weinke 14 R Peete 14
F Reich 2 R Fasani 4
M Lytle 1 M Lytle 3
C Cramer 0 J Trudeau 3
D Beebe 0 F Reich 2
R Smart 0 K Johnson 1Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
T Biakabutu 611 T Biakabutu 2530 S Davis 20
D Foster 604 D Foster 2460 T Biakabutu 14
S Davis 522 S Davis 2085 F Lane 13
F Lane 502 F Lane 2001 L Smith 7
A Johnson 482 A Johnson 1791 A Johnson 7
N Goings 391 N Goings 1460 W Floyd 7
B Hoover 243 B Hoover 852 D Foster 7
L Smith 210 D Moore 740 C Weinke 6
D Moore 195 L Smith 733 N Goings 6
R Huntley 166 R Huntley 665 K Collins 4Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
M Muhammad 578 M Muhammad 7751 W Walls 44
S Smith 344 S Smith 4925 M Muhammad 44
W Walls 324 W Walls 3902 S Smith 30
M Carrier 176 M Carrier 2547 M Carrier 13
K Mangum 151 D Hayes 1855 P Jeffers 12
D Hayes 132 R Ismail 1657 R Ismail 10
B Hoover 125 W Green 1496 K Mangum 9
R Ismail 117 K Mangum 1424 W Green 9
N Goings 107 R Proehl 1327 R Proehl 8
A Johnson 103 P Jeffers 1209 D Hayes 7
Chicago Bears
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Harbaugh 1023 J Harbaugh 1759 S Luckman 14686
E Kramer 913 S Luckman 1744 J Harbaugh 11567
S Luckman 904 E Kramer 1557 J McMahon 11203
J McMahon 874 J McMahon 1513 E Kramer 10582
B Wade 767 B Wade 1407 B Wade 9958
E Brown 607 E Brown 1246 E Brown 9698
J Miller 565 B Avellini 1110 B Avellini 7111
B Avellini 560 G Blanda 988 J Lujack 6295
J Concannon 486 J Miller 965 R Bukich 6254
R Bukich 474 V Evans 953 M Tomczak 6247Passing TDs Interceptions
S Luckman 137 S Luckman 132
B Wade 68 E Brown 88
J McMahon 67 G Blanda 70
E Kramer 63 B Avellini 69
E Brown 63 B Wade 66
J Harbaugh 50 Z Bratkowsk 58
G Blanda 48 J McMahon 56
R Bukich 46 J Harbaugh 56
J Lujack 41 J Lujack 54
J Miller 34 V Evans 53Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
W Payton 3838 W Payton 16726 W Payton 110
N Anderson 1515 N Anderson 6166 N Anderson 51
R Casares 1386 R Casares 5657 R Casares 49
G Sayers 991 G Sayers 4956 G Sayers 39
A Thomas 858 T Jones 3493 W Galimore 26
T Jones 850 A Thomas 3332 T Jones 22
M Suhey 828 R Harper 3044 A Thomas 21
R Bull 787 W Galimore 2985 J Lujack 21
R Harper 757 M Suhey 2946 B Douglass 20
W Galimore 670 R Bull 2871 M Suhey 20Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
W Payton 492 J Morris 5059 K Kavanaugh 50
J Morris 356 H Hill 4616 H Hill 40
C Conway 329 W Payton 4538 D Gordon 35
M Ditka 316 M Ditka 4503 M Ditka 34
M Booker 315 C Conway 4498 C Conway 31
N Anderson 302 M Booker 3678 J Morris 31
M Suhey 260 W Gault 3650 W Gault 27
B Engram 246 K Kavanaugh 3626 M Booker 23
D Gordon 238 D Gordon 3550 D McKinnon 21
H Hill 226 J Scott 3202 J Scott 20
Cincinnati Bengals
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
K Anderson 2654 K Anderson 4475 K Anderson 32838
B Esiason 2015 B Esiason 3564 B Esiason 27149
J Blake 1240 J Blake 2221 J Blake 15134
J Kitna 1009 J Kitna 1707 C Palmer 10768
C Palmer 932 C Palmer 1461 J Kitna 10707
D Klingler 375 D Klingler 687 D Klingler 3880
V Carter 328 V Carter 582 V Carter 3850
T Schonert 216 A Smith 461 T Schonert 2756
A Smith 215 J Thompson 370 N O'Donnell 2216
N O'Donnell 212 T Schonert 350 A Smith 2212Passing TDs Interceptions
K Anderson 197 K Anderson 160
B Esiason 187 B Esiason 131
J Blake 93 J Blake 62
C Palmer 78 J Kitna 59
J Kitna 59 C Palmer 43
V Carter 22 D Klingler 21
D Klingler 16 V Carter 20
G Cook 15 J Thompson 19
N O'Donnell 15 J Reaves 17
J Thompson 13 A Smith 13Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
C Dillon 1865 C Dillon 8061 P Johnson 64
P Johnson 1402 J Brooks 6447 C Dillon 45
J Brooks 1344 P Johnson 5421 R Johnson 45
R Johnson 1271 R Johnson 5245 L Kinnebrew 37
H Green 968 H Green 3727 J Brooks 37
B Clark 779 E Johnson 3070 I Woods 27
C Alexander 748 B Clark 2978 B Clark 25
A Griffin 691 A Griffin 2808 K Anderson 20
E Johnson 675 C Alexander 2645 P Robinson 19
L Kinnebrew 639 L Kinnebrew 2582 E Johnson 18Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
C Pickens 530 I Curtis 7101 C Pickens 63
C Johnson 466 C Johnson 6925 I Curtis 53
C Collinswo 417 C Pickens 6887 C Johnson 41
I Curtis 416 C Collinswo 6698 E Brown 41
D Scott 386 E Brown 6134 D Scott 36
E Brown 363 D Scott 5975 C Collinswo 36
R Holman 318 T McGee 4703 B Trumpy 35
T Houshmand 303 B Trumpy 4600 R Holman 34
T McGee 299 R Holman 4329 J Brooks 27
B Trumpy 298 T McGee 3795 T McGee 25
Cleveland Browns
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
B Sipe 1944 B Sipe 3439 B Sipe 23713
B Kosar 1853 B Kosar 3150 B Kosar 21904
T Couch 1025 F Ryan 1755 O Graham 13499
F Ryan 907 T Couch 1714 F Ryan 13363
O Graham 872 O Graham 1565 T Couch 11131
B Nelsen 689 M Phipps 1317 B Nelsen 9725
M Phipps 633 B Nelsen 1314 M Plum 8914
M Plum 627 M Plum 1083 M Phipps 7700
V Testaverd 578 V Testaverd 998 V Testaverd 7255
P McDonald 411 P McDonald 767 P McDonald 5269Passing TDs Interceptions
B Sipe 154 B Sipe 149
F Ryan 134 O Graham 94
B Kosar 116 F Ryan 88
O Graham 88 M Phipps 81
B Nelsen 71 B Kosar 81
M Plum 66 B Nelsen 71
T Couch 64 T Couch 67
V Testaverd 47 M Plum 39
M Phipps 40 V Testaverd 37
K Holcomb 26 P McDonald 37Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Brown 2359 J Brown 12312 J Brown 106
L Kelly 1727 L Kelly 7274 L Kelly 74
M Pruitt 1593 M Pruitt 6540 M Pruitt 47
K Mack 1291 G Pruitt 5496 K Mack 46
G Pruitt 1158 K Mack 5123 O Graham 33
E Byner 862 E Byner 3364 E Byner 27
E Green 668 E Green 3204 G Pruitt 25
E Metcalf 592 B Mitchell 2297 B Scott 18
W Green 568 C Miller 2286 C Miller 16
B Scott 554 E Metcalf 2229 B Mitchell 16Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
O Newsome 662 O Newsome 7980 G Collins 70
G Collins 331 R Renfro 5508 P Warfield 52
G Pruitt 323 G Collins 5299 R Renfro 50
B Brennan 315 P Warfield 5210 O Newsome 47
R Rucker 310 R Rucker 4953 D Lavelli 33
W Slaughter 305 W Slaughter 4834 R Rucker 32
E Metcalf 297 D Logan 4247 M Jackson 28
R Renfro 281 M Morin 4208 W Slaughter 27
E Byner 276 B Brennan 4148 D Logan 24
D Northcutt 276 D Lavelli 3908 K Johnson 21
Dallas Cowboys
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
T Aikman 2898 T Aikman 4715 T Aikman 32942
D White 1761 R Staubach 2958 R Staubach 22700
R Staubach 1685 D White 2950 D White 21959
D Meredith 1170 D Meredith 2308 D Meredith 17199
C Morton 685 C Morton 1308 C Morton 10279
S Pelleur 520 S Pelleur 922 S Pelleur 6555
Q Carter 507 Q Carter 902 Q Carter 5839
D Bledsoe 390 E LeBaron 692 E LeBaron 5331
E LeBaron 359 D Bledsoe 668 D Bledsoe 4803
V Testaverd 297 G Hogeboom 518 G Hogeboom 3550Passing TDs Interceptions
T Aikman 165 T Aikman 141
D White 155 D White 132
R Staubach 153 D Meredith 111
D Meredith 135 R Staubach 109
C Morton 80 C Morton 73
E LeBaron 45 E LeBaron 53
D Bledsoe 30 S Pelleur 38
Q Carter 29 Q Carter 36
S Pelleur 28 D Bledsoe 25
T Romo 19 G Hogeboom 23Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
E Smith 4052 E Smith 17162 E Smith 153
T Dorsett 2755 T Dorsett 12036 T Dorsett 72
D Perkins 1500 D Perkins 6217 D Perkins 42
C Hill 1166 C Hill 5009 C Hill 39
R Newhouse 1160 R Newhouse 4784 R Newhouse 31
W Garrison 899 W Garrison 3886 W Garrison 30
H Walker 818 H Walker 3491 R Springs 28
J Jones 721 J Jones 2896 H Walker 27
R Springs 604 R Staubach 2264 D Reeves 25
D Reeves 535 R Springs 2180 R Staubach 20Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
M Irvin 750 M Irvin 11904 B Hayes 71
D Pearson 489 T Hill 7988 M Irvin 65
E Smith 486 D Pearson 7822 T Hill 51
T Hill 479 B Hayes 7295 F Clarke 50
T Dorsett 382 F Clarke 5214 D Pearson 48
B Hayes 365 D Cosbie 3728 B Dupree 41
J Novacek 339 J Novacek 3576 L Rentzel 31
D Cosbie 300 B Dupree 3565 D Cosbie 30
D Johnston 294 L Rentzel 3521 J Novacek 21
F Clarke 281 T Dorsett 3432 T Glenn 20
Denver Broncos
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Elway 4123 J Elway 7250 J Elway 51475
B Griese 1044 B Griese 1678 C Morton 11895
J Plummer 944 J Plummer 1596 B Griese 11763
C Morton 907 C Morton 1594 J Plummer 11631
F Tripucka 662 F Tripucka 1277 F Tripucka 7676
C Johnson 517 C Johnson 970 C Johnson 7238
S Ramsey 456 S Ramsey 919 S Ramsey 6437
S Tensi 348 S Tensi 810 S Tensi 5153
S Deberg 314 M Slaughter 584 S Deberg 3819
M Slaughter 291 S Deberg 546 M Slaughter 3607Passing TDs Interceptions
J Elway 300 J Elway 226
C Morton 74 F Tripucka 85
B Griese 71 C Morton 65
J Plummer 71 S Ramsey 58
C Johnson 52 B Griese 53
F Tripucka 51 C Johnson 52
S Tensi 38 J Plummer 47
S Ramsey 35 S Tensi 45
M Slaughter 23 M Slaughter 38
S Deberg 22 J McCormick 33Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
T Davis 1655 T Davis 7607 T Davis 60
F Little 1641 F Little 6323 F Little 43
S Winder 1486 S Winder 5427 S Winder 39
O Armstrong 1023 O Armstrong 4453 M Anderson 36
M Anderson 865 M Anderson 3822 J Elway 33
J Elway 774 J Elway 3407 C Portis 29
J Keyworth 699 C Portis 3099 O Armstrong 25
B Humphrey 593 J Keyworth 2653 J Keyworth 22
C Portis 563 B Humphrey 2386 G Willhite 17
T Bell 481 T Bell 2342 B Humphrey 14Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
R Smith 849 R Smith 11389 R Smith 68
S Sharpe 675 S Sharpe 8439 S Sharpe 55
L Taylor 543 L Taylor 6872 E McCaffrey 46
E McCaffrey 462 E McCaffrey 6200 L Taylor 44
V Johnson 415 S Watson 6112 H Moses 44
R Odoms 396 R Odoms 5755 R Odoms 41
S Watson 353 V Johnson 5695 V Johnson 37
H Moses 302 H Moses 5450 S Watson 36
M Jackson 276 M Jackson 4746 A Denson 32
R Upchurch 267 R Upchurch 4369 B Scarpitto 24
Detroit Lions
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
B Layne 1074 B Layne 2193 B Layne 15710
S Mitchell 1049 S Mitchell 1850 S Mitchell 12647
J Harringto 986 J Harringto 1802 G Landry 12451
G Landry 957 G Landry 1747 G Danielson11885
G Danielson 952 G Danielson 1684 E Hipple 10711
E Hipple 830 E Hipple 1546 J Harringto10242
C Batch 743 C Batch 1326 C Batch 9016
B Munson 716 M Plum 1315 M Plum 8536
M Plum 671 B Munson 1314 B Munson 8461
R Peete 641 R Peete 1125 R Peete 8164Passing TDs Interceptions
B Layne 118 B Layne 142
G Landry 80 M Plum 87
S Mitchell 79 G Landry 81
G Danielson 69 G Danielson 71
J Harringto 60 E Hipple 70
B Munson 56 J Harringto 62
E Hipple 55 S Mitchell 57
M Plum 55 R Peete 49
E Morrall 52 B Munson 42
C Batch 49 E Morrall 41Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
B Sanders 3062 B Sanders 15269 B Sanders 99
D Bussey 1203 B Sims 5106 B Sims 42
A Taylor 1165 D Bussey 5105 N Pietrosan 28
B Sims 1131 A Taylor 4297 J Jones 26
J Jones 1010 N Pietrosan 3933 M Farr 26
N Pietrosan 938 J Jones 3626 A Taylor 24
M Farr 739 M Farr 3072 S Owens 20
J Stewart 713 J Stewart 2890 G Landry 19
D Lewis 651 D Lewis 2698 D Bussey 18
S Owens 635 G Landry 2502 B Hoernsche 17Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
H Moore 670 H Moore 9174 H Moore 62
J Morton 469 J Morton 6499 J Morton 35
B Perriman 428 B Perriman 5244 T Barr 35
B Sanders 352 G Cogdill 5221 L Thompson 35
C Sanders 336 C Sanders 4817 C Box 32
G Cogdill 325 L Thompson 4682 C Sanders 31
J Jones 318 T Barr 3810 G Cogdill 28
J Gibbons 287 F Scott 3651 L Walton 26
L Thompson 277 J Gibbons 3561 L Hart 26
D Hill 245 J Chadwick 3359 B Perriman 25
Green Bay Packers
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
B Favre 5021 B Favre 8219 B Favre 57500
B Starr 1808 B Starr 3149 B Starr 24718
L Dickey 1592 L Dickey 2831 L Dickey 21369
D Majkowski 889 T Rote 1854 T Rote 11535
T Rote 826 D Majkowski 1607 D Majkowski10870
R Wright 602 R Wright 1119 R Wright 7106
D Whitehurs 504 D Whitehurs 980 D Whitehurs 6205
J Hadl 280 B Parilli 602 B Parilli 3983
B Parilli 258 J Hadl 537 J Hadl 3167
Z Bratkowsk 220 S Hunter 446 Z Bratkowsk 3147Passing TDs Interceptions
B Favre 414 B Favre 271
B Starr 152 L Dickey 151
L Dickey 133 B Starr 138
T Rote 89 T Rote 119
D Majkowski 56 B Parilli 61
B Parilli 31 R Wright 57
R Wright 31 D Majkowski 56
D Whitehurs 28 D Whitehurs 51
Z Bratkowsk 21 S Hunter 30
D Horn 16 J Hadl 29Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Taylor 1811 J Taylor 8207 J Taylor 81
A Green 1810 A Green 8162 A Green 53
J Brockingt 1293 J Brockingt 5024 P Hornung 50
T Canadeo 1025 T Canadeo 4197 J Brockingt 29
D Levens 1006 D Levens 3937 T Rote 29
E Bennett 936 G Ellis 3826 D Levens 28
P Hornung 893 P Hornung 3711 E Pitts 28
G Ellis 836 E Bennett 3353 T Canadeo 26
D Anderson 787 D Anderson 3165 G Ellis 25
E Ivery 667 E Ivery 2933 D Anderson 24Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
S Sharpe 595 J Lofton 9656 D Hutson 99
J Lofton 530 S Sharpe 8134 S Sharpe 65
D Hutson 488 D Hutson 7991 A Freeman 57
B Dowler 448 B Dowler 6918 M McGee 50
A Freeman 431 A Freeman 6651 J Lofton 49
D Driver 421 M McGee 6346 B Howton 43
A Green 347 D Driver 5929 B Dowler 40
M McGee 345 B Howton 5581 P Coffman 39
P Coffman 322 C Dale 5422 D Driver 36
W Henderson 320 R Brooks 4225 C Dale 35
Hou/Ten Oilers/Titans
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
W Moon 2632 W Moon 4546 W Moon 33685
S McNair 2305 S McNair 3871 S McNair 27141
D Pastorini 1426 G Blanda 2784 G Blanda 19149
G Blanda 1347 D Pastorini 2768 D Pastorini16864
K Stabler 458 P Beathard 822 K Stabler 5190
C Chandler 409 K Stabler 742 P Beathard 5128
P Beathard 379 C Chandler 676 C Chandler 4559
C Carlson 370 C Carlson 659 C Carlson 4469
B Volek 312 D Trull 556 D Trull 3538
G Nielsen 273 B Volek 517 B Volek 3505Passing TDs Interceptions
W Moon 196 G Blanda 189
G Blanda 165 W Moon 166
S McNair 156 D Pastorini 139
D Pastorini 96 S McNair 102
C Chandler 33 P Beathard 51
D Trull 29 K Stabler 46
K Stabler 27 J Lee 30
P Beathard 26 C Carlson 28
B Volek 26 L Dickey 28
J Lee 25 G Nielsen 22Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
E George 2733 E George 10009 E Campbell 73
E Campbell 1979 E Campbell 8574 E George 64
L White 1000 L White 4079 S McNair 36
M Rozier 910 H Granger 3514 L White 29
C Tolar 907 S McNair 3451 M Rozier 27
H Granger 773 M Rozier 3426 W Moon 21
R Coleman 700 C Tolar 3277 C Tolar 21
S McNair 612 R Coleman 2769 A Pinkett 21
F Willis 603 A Pinkett 2324 H Granger 18
A Pinkett 561 C Brown 2295 R Coleman 16Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
E Givins 542 E Givins 7935 C Hennigan 51
H Jeffires 515 D Hill 7477 D Hill 47
F Wycheck 482 K Burrough 6906 K Burrough 47
D Hill 480 C Hennigan 6823 H Jeffires 47
D Mason 453 H Jeffires 6119 E Givins 46
C Hennigan 410 D Mason 6114 D Mason 37
K Burrough 408 F Wycheck 4958 B Groman 32
C Duncan 322 D Bennett 4033 F Wycheck 27
D Bennett 273 C Duncan 3935 D Bennett 25
E George 259 C Sanders 3285 C Frazier 22
Houston Texans
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Carr 1243 D Carr 2070 D Carr 13391
T Banks 76 T Banks 129 T Banks 882
S Rosenfels 27 D Ragone 40 S Rosenfels 265
D Ragone 20 S Rosenfels 39 D Ragone 135
J Gaffney 1 J Gaffney 5 J Gaffney 39
J Allen 1 J Allen 2 J Allen 5
V Morency 0 D Williams 1 V Morency 0
V Leach 0 S Mack 1 V Leach 0
S Gado 0 V Morency 0 S Gado 0
D Morgan 0 V Leach 0 D Morgan 0Passing TDs Interceptions
D Carr 59 D Carr 65
T Banks 6 T Banks 5
S Rosenfels 3 S Rosenfels 1
J Gaffney 1 D Ragone 1
J Allen 1 S Mack 1
V Morency 0 V Morency 0
V Leach 0 V Leach 0
S Gado 0 S Gado 0
D Morgan 0 D Morgan 0
M Murphy 0 M Murphy 0Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
D Williams 770 D Williams 3195 D Williams 23
J Wells 374 D Carr 1233 J Wells 10
D Carr 269 J Wells 1167 D Carr 8
J Allen 155 R Dayne 612 R Dayne 5
R Dayne 151 J Allen 519 W Lundy 4
W Lundy 124 W Lundy 476 S Mack 4
S Mack 93 S Mack 253 V Morency 2
S Gado 54 S Gado 217 S Gado 1
V Morency 51 V Morency 197 C Taylor 1
T Hollings 49 T Hollings 149 V Leach 0Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
A Johnson 311 A Johnson 3953 C Bradford 18
J Gaffney 171 J Gaffney 2009 A Johnson 17
D Williams 154 C Bradford 1992 J Gaffney 7
C Bradford 130 D Williams 1276 B Miller 7
B Miller 108 B Miller 1146 D Williams 5
E Moulds 57 D Armstrong 605 O Daniels 5
J Allen 47 E Moulds 557 J Wells 2
D Armstrong 45 O Daniels 352 D Armstrong 2
J Wells 44 J Wells 323 M Bruener 2
O Daniels 34 J Allen 302 V Leach 1
Indy/Balt Colts
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
P Manning 3131 J Unitas 5110 J Unitas 39768
J Unitas 2796 P Manning 4890 P Manning 37586
B Jones 1382 B Jones 2464 B Jones 17663
J George 874 J Trudeau 1536 J Trudeau 9647
J Trudeau 812 J George 1532 J George 9551
J Harbaugh 746 J Harbaugh 1230 J Harbaugh 8705
M Pagel 587 M Pagel 1154 M Pagel 7474
E Morrall 363 E Morrall 676 E Morrall 5666
G Landry 308 M Domres 576 M Domres 3471
M Domres 293 G Landry 533 G Landry 3402Passing TDs Interceptions
J Unitas 287 J Unitas 246
P Manning 275 P Manning 139
B Jones 122 B Jones 97
J Harbaugh 49 J Trudeau 62
E Morrall 47 M Pagel 47
J George 41 J George 46
J Trudeau 41 E Morrall 40
M Pagel 39 G Shaw 31
G Hogeboom 22 M Domres 31
G Shaw 21 J Harbaugh 26Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
E James 2188 E James 9226 E James 64
L Mitchell 1391 L Mitchell 5487 L Moore 63
M Faulk 1389 M Faulk 5320 T Matte 45
E Dickerson 1258 E Dickerson 5194 M Faulk 42
T Matte 1200 L Moore 5174 D McCauley 40
L Moore 1068 T Matte 4646 A Ameche 40
R McMillan 990 A Ameche 4045 E Dickerson 32
A Ameche 965 R McMillan 3876 L Mitchell 27
C Dickey 800 C Dickey 3490 C Dickey 26
D McCauley 770 J Hill 2668 R McMillan 24Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
M Harrison 1022 M Harrison 13697 M Harrison 122
R Berry 631 R Berry 9275 R Berry 68
B Brooks 411 L Moore 6039 J Orr 50
R Wayne 390 J Orr 5859 L Moore 48
L Moore 363 B Brooks 5818 J Mutschell 40
E James 356 R Wayne 5474 J Mackey 38
D McCauley 333 J Mackey 5126 R Wayne 37
J Mackey 320 R Carr 4770 M Pollard 35
J Orr 303 J Mutschell 3684 R Carr 29
L Mitchell 298 G Doughty 3547 B Brooks 28
Jacksonville Jaguars
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
M Brunell 2184 M Brunell 3616 M Brunell 25698
B Leftwich 789 B Leftwich 1344 B Leftwich 9042
D Garrard 313 D Garrard 539 D Garrard 3543
S Beuerlein 71 S Beuerlein 142 S Beuerlein 952
J Quinn 66 J Quinn 125 J Quinn 748
J Fiedler 61 J Fiedler 94 J Martin 662
J Martin 49 J Martin 78 J Fiedler 656
S Matthews 26 S Matthews 40 R Johnson 368
R Johnson 25 Q Gray 36 S Matthews 275
Q Gray 21 R Johnson 35 Q Gray 266Passing TDs Interceptions
M Brunell 144 M Brunell 86
B Leftwich 51 B Leftwich 36
D Garrard 18 D Garrard 13
S Beuerlein 4 S Beuerlein 7
J Martin 4 J Quinn 4
J Quinn 3 R Johnson 3
Q Gray 2 J Fiedler 2
J Fiedler 2 J Martin 1
R Johnson 2 C Tillman 0
C Tillman 0 J Zelenka 0Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
F Taylor 2062 F Taylor 9513 F Taylor 56
J Stewart 765 J Stewart 2951 J Stewart 33
M Brunell 429 M Brunell 2219 S Mack 19
N Means 396 S Mack 1498 M Brunell 14
S Mack 372 N Means 1330 M Jones-Dre 13
G Jones 213 M Jones-Dre 941 N Means 11
M Jones-Dre 166 G Jones 737 B Leftwich 8
L Toefield 150 D Garrard 637 G Jones 7
B Leftwich 120 L Toefield 545 D Garrard 6
D Garrard 115 B Leftwich 364 L Toefield 6Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
J Smith 862 J Smith 12287 J Smith 67
K McCardell 499 K McCardell 6393 K McCardell 30
F Taylor 261 K Brady 2500 K Brady 13
K Brady 241 F Taylor 2205 E Wilford 11
P Mitchell 191 P Mitchell 2091 P Mitchell 11
J Stewart 119 E Wilford 1476 D Jones 11
R Williams 114 R Williams 1329 W Jackson 10
W Jackson 103 W Jackson 1281 M Jones 9
E Wilford 96 M Jones 1075 G Wrighster 8
T Edwards 85 T Edwards 1020 F Taylor 8
Kansas City Chiefs
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
L Dawson 2115 L Dawson 3696 L Dawson 28507
T Green 1720 T Green 2777 T Green 21459
B Kenney 1330 B Kenney 2430 B Kenney 17277
S Deberg 934 M Livingsto 1751 S Deberg 11873
M Livingsto 912 S Deberg 1616 M Livingsto11295
E Grbac 897 E Grbac 1548 E Grbac 10638
S Bono 594 S Bono 1075 S Bono 6489
J Montana 480 S Fuller 817 J Montana 5427
S Fuller 465 J Montana 791 S Fuller 5333
R Gannon 365 T Blackledg 742 C Davidson 4919Passing TDs Interceptions
L Dawson 237 L Dawson 178
T Green 118 B Kenney 86
B Kenney 105 T Green 85
S Deberg 67 M Livingsto 83
E Grbac 66 S Deberg 50
M Livingsto 56 E Grbac 47
S Bono 37 C Davidson 39
C Davidson 32 T Blackledg 32
J Montana 29 S Fuller 32
T Blackledg 26 S Bono 27Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
P Holmes 1275 P Holmes 5933 P Holmes 76
C Okoye 1246 C Okoye 4897 L Johnson 47
E Podolak 1157 E Podolak 4451 M Allen 44
M Allen 932 L Johnson 4205 C Okoye 40
L Johnson 892 A Haynes 3814 A Haynes 39
A Haynes 794 M Allen 3698 E Podolak 34
C McClinton 762 M Garrett 3246 M Garrett 24
M Garrett 736 C McClinton 3124 T McKnight 22
W Hayes 668 H Heard 2694 C McClinton 18
H Heard 651 W Hayes 2560 W Hayes 18Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Gonzalez 721 T Gonzalez 8710 T Gonzalez 61
H Marshall 416 O Taylor 7306 O Taylor 57
O Taylor 410 H Marshall 6545 C Burford 55
C Burford 391 C Carson 6360 S Paige 49
S Paige 377 S Paige 6341 F Arbanas 34
K Anders 369 C Burford 5505 C Carson 33
C Carson 352 E Kennison 5129 H Marshall 33
E Kennison 308 D Alexander 3685 E Kennison 25
E Podolak 288 F Arbanas 3101 F Jackson 21
T McNair 254 W Davis 3014 W Davis 20
Miami Dolphins
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Marino 4967 D Marino 8358 D Marino 61361
B Griese 1926 B Griese 3429 B Griese 25092
J Fiedler 936 J Fiedler 1603 J Fiedler 11040
D Woodley 508 D Woodley 961 D Woodley 5928
D Strock 388 D Strock 688 D Strock 4613
G Frerotte 257 G Frerotte 494 G Frerotte 2996
J Harringto 223 J Harringto 388 E Morrall 2335
A Feeley 191 R Norton 377 J Harringto 2236
D Huard 170 A Feeley 356 A Feeley 1893
R Norton 156 D Huard 288 S Mitchell 1805Passing TDs Interceptions
D Marino 420 D Marino 252
B Griese 192 B Griese 172
J Fiedler 66 J Fiedler 63
D Strock 39 D Woodley 42
D Woodley 34 D Strock 37
G Frerotte 18 R Norton 30
E Morrall 17 E Morrall 17
J Harringto 12 J Harringto 15
S Mitchell 12 A Feeley 15
A Feeley 11 D Wood 14Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
L Csonka 1506 L Csonka 6737 L Csonka 53
J Kiick 997 R Williams 3968 K Abdul-Jab 33
R Williams 943 M Morris 3877 R Williams 31
K Abdul-Jab 888 J Kiick 3644 M Morris 29
M Morris 754 T Nathan 3543 J Kiick 28
T Nathan 732 K Abdul-Jab 3063 D Nottingha 25
M Higgs 702 M Higgs 2648 L Hampton 22
D Williams 643 D Williams 2632 A Franklin 22
L Smith 622 A Franklin 2232 L Smith 20
A Franklin 622 B Malone 2129 N Bulaich 17Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
M Clayton 550 M Duper 8869 M Clayton 81
M Duper 511 M Clayton 8643 N Moore 74
N Moore 510 N Moore 7546 M Duper 59
O McDuffie 415 C Chambers 5273 C Chambers 43
T Nathan 383 O McDuffie 5074 P Warfield 33
C Chambers 374 D Harris 4534 O McDuffie 29
R McMichael 283 T Nathan 3592 B Hardy 25
D Harris 269 P Warfield 3355 J Mandich 23
B Hardy 256 O Gadsden 3252 H Twilley 23
J Jensen 229 I Fryar 3190 O Gadsden 22
Minnesota Vikings
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
F Tarkenton 2635 F Tarkenton 4569 F Tarkenton33098
T Kramer 2011 T Kramer 3648 T Kramer 24775
D Culpepper 1679 D Culpepper 2609 D Culpepper20168
B Johnson 1036 B Johnson 1670 W Wilson 12135
W Wilson 929 W Wilson 1665 B Johnson 11098
W Moon 882 W Moon 1454 W Moon 10102
R Gannon 561 R Gannon 1003 R Gannon 6457
R Cunningha 427 R Cunningha 713 R Cunningha 5680
J Kapp 351 J Kapp 699 J Kapp 4807
S Dils 336 S Dils 623 S Dils 3867Passing TDs Interceptions
F Tarkenton 239 F Tarkenton 194
T Kramer 159 T Kramer 157
D Culpepper 135 D Culpepper 86
W Wilson 66 W Wilson 75
B Johnson 65 B Johnson 48
W Moon 58 J Kapp 47
R Cunningha 48 W Moon 42
R Gannon 40 R Gannon 36
J Kapp 37 R Cunningha 23
J George 23 G Cuozzo 23Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
B Brown 1627 R Smith 6818 B Brown 52
C Foreman 1533 C Foreman 5887 C Foreman 52
R Smith 1411 B Brown 5757 T Brown 40
D Osborn 1173 T Brown 4546 R Smith 32
T Brown 1117 D Osborn 4320 D Culpepper 29
D Nelson 981 D Nelson 4231 D Osborn 29
T Mason 761 T Mason 3252 T Mason 28
M Bennett 713 M Bennett 3174 L Hoard 26
T Allen 641 T Allen 2795 T Allen 23
A Anderson 626 F Tarkenton 2548 A Anderson 22Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
C Carter 1004 C Carter 12383 C Carter 110
R Moss 574 R Moss 9142 R Moss 90
S Jordan 498 A Carter 7636 A Carter 52
A Carter 478 J Reed 6433 S White 50
J Reed 413 S White 6400 A Rashad 34
A Rashad 400 S Jordan 6307 J Reed 33
S White 393 A Rashad 5489 S Jordan 28
T Brown 339 H Jones 3733 J Gilliam 27
C Foreman 336 J Gilliam 3297 H Jones 24
R Young 292 P Flatley 3222 B Brown 23
New England Patriots
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Bledsoe 2544 D Bledsoe 4518 D Bledsoe 29657
T Brady 1896 S Grogan 3593 S Grogan 26886
S Grogan 1879 T Brady 3064 T Brady 21564
B Parilli 1140 B Parilli 2413 B Parilli 16747
T Eason 876 J Plunkett 1503 T Eason 10732
J Plunkett 729 T Eason 1500 J Plunkett 9932
H Millen 370 M Taliaferr 680 H Millen 4276
M Taliaferr 305 H Millen 612 M Taliaferr 3920
B Songin 285 B Songin 604 B Songin 3905
M Wilson 214 M Wilson 415 M Cavanaugh 3018Passing TDs Interceptions
S Grogan 182 S Grogan 208
D Bledsoe 166 B Parilli 138
T Brady 147 D Bledsoe 138
B Parilli 132 J Plunkett 87
J Plunkett 62 T Brady 78
T Eason 60 T Eason 48
B Songin 36 M Taliaferr 44
M Taliaferr 27 H Millen 28
M Cavanaugh 19 B Songin 24
H Millen 17 M Cavanaugh 23Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
S Cunningha 1385 S Cunningha 5453 J Nance 45
J Nance 1323 J Nance 5323 S Cunningha 43
T Collins 1191 T Collins 4647 C Dillon 37
C Martin 958 C Martin 3799 S Grogan 35
J Stephens 891 D Calhoun 3391 T Collins 32
D Calhoun 820 J Stephens 3249 C Martin 32
L Garron 759 C Dillon 3180 D Calhoun 23
C Dillon 753 L Garron 2981 A Smith 21
A Smith 721 A Smith 2781 M Tatupu 18
L Russell 689 C James 2469 J Stephens 17Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Brown 557 S Morgan 10352 S Morgan 67
S Morgan 534 T Brown 6366 B Coates 50
B Coates 490 I Fryar 5726 G Cappellet 42
I Fryar 363 B Coates 5471 J Colclough 39
T Glenn 329 J Colclough 5001 I Fryar 38
G Cappellet 292 T Glenn 4669 T Brown 31
J Colclough 283 G Cappellet 4589 R Francis 28
K Faulk 276 H Jackson 3162 L Garron 26
T Collins 261 R Francis 3157 R Vataha 23
V Brisby 217 V Brisby 3142 T Glenn 22
New Orleans Saints
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
A Manning 1849 A Manning 3335 A Manning 21734
A Brooks 1563 A Brooks 2771 A Brooks 19156
B Hebert 1202 B Hebert 2055 B Hebert 14630
J Everett 958 J Everett 1571 J Everett 10622
B Kilmer 592 B Kilmer 1116 B Kilmer 7490
D Wilson 551 D Wilson 1039 D Wilson 6987
D Brees 356 S Walsh 620 D Brees 4418
S Walsh 336 K Stabler 570 S Walsh 3879
K Stabler 326 D Brees 554 K Stabler 3670
B Tolliver 249 B Scott 500 B Tolliver 3343Passing TDs Interceptions
A Brooks 120 A Manning 156
A Manning 115 A Brooks 84
B Hebert 85 B Hebert 75
J Everett 60 B Kilmer 62
B Kilmer 47 D Wilson 55
D Wilson 36 J Everett 48
D Brees 26 K Stabler 33
S Walsh 25 B Scott 28
K Stabler 17 R Todd 23
B Tolliver 15 S Walsh 22Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
D McAlliste 1298 D McAlliste 5586 D McAlliste 44
D Hilliard 1126 G Rogers 4267 D Hilliard 39
G Rogers 995 D Hilliard 4164 C Muncie 28
R Mayes 837 R Mayes 3408 T Galbreath 27
R Williams 814 C Muncie 3393 G Rogers 23
C Muncie 788 R Williams 3129 R Mayes 23
T Galbreath 760 T Galbreath 2865 M Bates 21
M Bates 678 M Bates 2554 A Manning 18
W Wilson 658 W Wilson 2462 R Williams 16
M Strachan 472 A Manning 2058 W Wilson 16Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
E Martin 532 E Martin 7854 J Horn 50
J Horn 523 J Horn 7622 E Martin 48
D Abramowic 309 D Abramowic 4875 D Abramowic 37
T Galbreath 284 H Brenner 3849 H Childs 27
Q Early 270 Q Early 3758 Q Early 25
H Brenner 267 H Childs 3224 D Stallwort 23
D Hilliard 249 W Chandler 2801 H Brenner 21
D McAlliste 212 D Stallwort 2791 D Parks 16
H Childs 207 M Haynes 2368 T Small 16
D Stallwort 195 D Parks 2254 J Tice 15
New York Giants
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
P Simms 2576 P Simms 4647 P Simms 33462
K Collins 1448 C Conerly 2833 C Conerly 19488
C Conerly 1418 K Collins 2474 K Collins 16873
F Tarkenton 1051 F Tarkenton 1898 F Tarkenton13905
D Brown 766 D Brown 1391 Y Tittle 10439
Y Tittle 731 Y Tittle 1308 D Brown 8806
E Manning 690 E Manning 1276 E Manning 8049
S Brunner 482 S Brunner 986 S Brunner 6121
C Morton 461 C Morton 884 C Morton 5734
N Snead 416 N Snead 713 N Snead 4644Passing TDs Interceptions
P Simms 199 C Conerly 167
C Conerly 173 P Simms 157
F Tarkenton 103 F Tarkenton 72
Y Tittle 96 K Collins 70
K Collins 81 Y Tittle 68
E Manning 54 C Morton 49
D Brown 40 D Brown 49
E Morrall 32 S Brunner 48
C Morton 29 N Snead 45
S Brunner 28 E Manning 44Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
T Barber 2216 T Barber 10448 T Barber 55
R Hampton 1824 R Hampton 6897 R Hampton 49
J Morris 1318 J Morris 5296 J Morris 48
A Webster 1196 A Webster 4638 A Webster 39
R Johnson 1066 R Johnson 3836 O Anderson 35
D Kotar 900 F Gifford 3609 F Gifford 34
E Price 846 D Kotar 3380 R Johnson 33
F Gifford 840 E Price 3292 D Kotar 20
R Carpenter 737 R Carpenter 2572 E Price 20
O Anderson 704 J Morrison 2474 J Morrison 18Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Barber 586 A Toomer 8157 K Rote 48
A Toomer 561 F Gifford 5434 J Morrison 47
J Morrison 395 T Barber 5183 A Toomer 47
I Hilliard 368 J Morrison 4993 F Gifford 43
F Gifford 367 H Jones 4845 D Shofner 35
C Calloway 334 K Rote 4797 A Thomas 35
B Tucker 327 C Calloway 4710 H Jones 35
J Shockey 314 I Hilliard 4630 B Schnelker 29
K Rote 300 B Tucker 4376 M Bavaro 28
M Bavaro 266 D Shofner 4315 E Gray 27
New York Jets
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
K O'Brien 2039 J Namath 3655 J Namath 27057
J Namath 1836 K O'Brien 3465 K O'Brien 24386
R Todd 1433 R Todd 2623 R Todd 18241
V Testaverd 1094 V Testaverd 1854 V Testaverd12497
C Penningto 1081 C Penningto 1659 C Penningto11973
B Esiason 764 B Esiason 1302 B Esiason 8478
A Dorow 398 A Dorow 834 A Dorow 5399
N O'Donnell 369 D Wood 710 D Wood 4502
P Ryan 354 N O'Donnell 648 P Ryan 4222
D Wood 329 P Ryan 631 N O'Donnell 3943Passing TDs Interceptions
J Namath 170 J Namath 215
K O'Brien 124 R Todd 138
R Todd 110 K O'Brien 95
V Testaverd 77 V Testaverd 58
C Penningto 72 A Dorow 56
B Esiason 49 C Penningto 46
A Dorow 45 D Wood 44
D Wood 35 B Esiason 39
P Ryan 31 P Ryan 31
N O'Donnell 21 M Robinson 26Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
C Martin 2560 C Martin 10302 C Martin 58
F McNeil 1798 F McNeil 8074 E Boozer 52
E Boozer 1291 E Boozer 5135 J Hector 41
M Snell 1057 M Snell 4285 F McNeil 38
J Hector 1051 J Hector 4280 B Mathis 37
B Mathis 1044 J Riggins 3880 B Baxter 35
J Riggins 928 B Mathis 3589 K Long 25
A Murrell 860 A Murrell 3447 J Riggins 25
B Baxter 779 B Baxter 2928 M Snell 24
S Dierking 731 S Dierking 2901 S Dierking 18Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
D Maynard 627 D Maynard 11732 D Maynard 88
W Chrebet 580 W Walker 8306 W Walker 71
A Toon 517 W Chrebet 7365 W Chrebet 41
W Walker 438 A Toon 6605 J Barkum 40
M Shuler 438 G Sauer 4965 M Shuler 37
C Martin 367 M Shuler 4819 R Caster 36
L Coles 334 J Barkum 4789 K Johnson 31
J Barkum 326 L Coles 4445 A Toon 31
G Sauer 309 R Caster 4434 G Sauer 28
R Moore 306 R Moore 4258 A Powell 27
Oakland/LA Raiders
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
R Gannon 1533 K Stabler 2481 K Stabler 19078
K Stabler 1486 R Gannon 2448 R Gannon 17585
D Lamonica 1138 D Lamonica 2248 D Lamonica 16655
J Plunkett 960 J Plunkett 1707 J Plunkett 12665
J Hostetler 913 M Wilson 1666 M Wilson 11760
M Wilson 871 T Flores 1640 T Flores 11635
T Flores 810 J Hostetler 1562 J Hostetler11122
J Schroeder 698 J Schroeder 1394 J Schroeder10276
K Collins 591 K Collins 1078 K Collins 7254
C Davidson 412 C Davidson 977 C Davidson 6532Passing TDs Interceptions
K Stabler 150 K Stabler 143
D Lamonica 148 D Lamonica 115
R Gannon 114 M Wilson 86
T Flores 92 T Flores 83
J Plunkett 80 J Plunkett 81
M Wilson 77 C Davidson 63
J Hostetler 69 J Schroeder 62
J Schroeder 66 R Gannon 50
C Davidson 41 J Hostetler 49
K Collins 41 K Collins 32Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
M Allen 2090 M Allen 8545 M Allen 79
M VanEeghen 1475 M VanEeghen 5907 P Banaszak 47
C Daniels 1133 C Daniels 5103 M VanEeghen 35
N Kaufman 978 N Kaufman 4792 Z Crockett 35
P Banaszak 964 M Hubbard 4394 T Wheatley 32
T Wheatley 914 P Banaszak 3772 C Daniels 30
M Hubbard 913 T Wheatley 3682 C Davis 26
C Smith 858 C Davis 3640 C Smith 24
C Davis 804 C Smith 3351 M Hubbard 22
H Williams 804 H Williams 3094 H Williams 18Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Brown 1070 T Brown 14734 T Brown 99
F Biletniko 589 F Biletniko 8974 F Biletniko 76
C Branch 501 C Branch 8685 C Branch 67
T Christens 461 T Christens 5872 A Powell 50
M Allen 446 A Powell 4491 W Wells 42
J Jett 256 J Jett 4417 T Christens 41
D Casper 255 M Allen 4258 R Chester 37
A Powell 254 M Fernandez 3764 D Casper 35
J Rice 243 W Wells 3634 J Jett 30
J Porter 240 D Casper 3294 R Dudley 29
Philadelphia Eagles
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
R Jaworski 2088 R Jaworski 3918 R Jaworski 26963
D McNabb 1898 R Cunningha 3362 R Cunningha22877
R Cunningha 1874 D McNabb 3259 D McNabb 22080
N Snead 1154 N Snead 2236 N Snead 15672
R Gabriel 661 R Gabriel 1185 S Jurgensen 9639
S Jurgensen 602 B Thomason 1113 B Thomason 8124
B Thomason 556 S Jurgensen 1107 N VanBrockl 7497
N VanBrockl 542 N VanBrockl 998 R Gabriel 7221
A Burk 457 A Burk 960 A Burk 6203
R Peete 434 R Peete 756 R Peete 4945Passing TDs Interceptions
R Jaworski 175 R Jaworski 151
D McNabb 152 N Snead 124
R Cunningha 150 R Cunningha 105
N Snead 111 B Thomason 80
S Jurgensen 76 A Burk 77
B Thomason 57 S Jurgensen 73
A Burk 55 D McNabb 72
N VanBrockl 55 K Hill 51
R Gabriel 47 N VanBrockl 51
K Hill 29 R Gabriel 37Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
W Montgomer 1465 W Montgomer 6538 S VanBuren 69
S VanBuren 1320 S VanBuren 5860 W Montgomer 45
D Staley 1200 D Staley 4807 R Cunningha 32
R Watters 975 R Cunningha 4482 R Watters 31
T Sullivan 871 R Watters 3794 T Brown 29
T Brown 850 T Brown 3703 D McNabb 24
T Woodeshic 831 T Woodeshic 3563 D Staley 22
C Peaks 786 B Westbrook 3452 T Woodeshic 21
K Byars 750 T Sullivan 3135 B Barnes 20
B Westbrook 736 C Peaks 2927 B Westbrook 20Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
H Carmichae 589 H Carmichae 8978 H Carmichae 79
P Retzlaff 452 P Retzlaff 7412 T McDonald 66
P Pihos 373 M Quick 6464 P Pihos 61
K Byars 371 P Pihos 5619 M Quick 61
M Quick 363 T McDonald 5499 P Retzlaff 47
B Walston 311 B Walston 5363 B Walston 46
F Barnett 308 B Hawkins 4764 C Williams 34
C Williams 295 F Barnett 4634 B Hawkins 32
T McDonald 287 C Williams 3840 F Barnett 28
D Staley 275 K Byars 3532 T Brown 26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
T Bradshaw 2025 T Bradshaw 3901 T Bradshaw 27989
K Stewart 1190 K Stewart 2107 K Stewart 13328
N O'Donnell 1069 N O'Donnell 1871 N O'Donnell12867
B Brister 776 B Brister 1477 B Brister 10104
M Malone 690 J Finks 1382 B Layne 9030
J Finks 661 M Malone 1374 J Finks 8622
B Roethlisb 644 B Layne 1156 M Malone 8582
T Maddox 603 T Maddox 1036 B Roethlisb 8519
B Layne 569 B Roethlisb 1032 T Maddox 7139
M Tomczak 546 M Tomczak 973 M Tomczak 6649Passing TDs Interceptions
T Bradshaw 212 T Bradshaw 210
K Stewart 70 J Finks 88
N O'Donnell 68 B Layne 81
B Layne 66 K Stewart 72
J Finks 55 M Malone 68
M Malone 54 B Brister 57
B Roethlisb 52 E Brown 50
B Brister 51 M Tomczak 43
T Maddox 42 B Roethlisb 43
E Brown 38 T Maddox 40Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
F Harris 2881 F Harris 11950 F Harris 91
J Bettis 2683 J Bettis 10571 J Bettis 78
D Hoak 1132 J Johnson 4381 K Stewart 35
J Johnson 1006 F Pollard 3989 T Bradshaw 32
F Pollard 953 D Hoak 3965 J Johnson 26
R Bleier 928 B Foster 3943 B Foster 26
B Foster 915 R Bleier 3865 D Hoak 25
F Rogel 900 W Abercromb 3343 R Bleier 23
W Abercromb 842 F Rogel 3271 W Abercromb 22
M Hoge 819 M Hoge 3115 J Fuqua 21Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
H Ward 648 J Stallwort 8723 J Stallwort 63
J Stallwort 537 H Ward 8005 H Ward 58
L Lipps 358 L Lipps 6018 L Swann 51
L Swann 336 L Swann 5462 B Dial 42
E Nickel 329 E Nickel 5131 L Lipps 39
F Harris 306 B Dial 4723 E Nickel 37
P Burress 262 P Burress 4164 R Mathews 34
C Johnson 247 R Mathews 3919 R Jefferson 29
M Hoge 241 R Jefferson 3671 J Smith 24
R Mathews 230 Y Thigpen 3651 R Shanklin 24
San Diego Chargers
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Fouts 3297 D Fouts 5604 D Fouts 43040
J Hadl 1824 J Hadl 3640 J Hadl 26938
S Humphries 1335 S Humphries 2350 S Humphries16085
D Brees 1125 D Brees 1809 D Brees 12348
D Flutie 408 J Kemp 815 J Kemp 5996
J Friesz 401 J Friesz 747 D Flutie 4901
J Kemp 389 D Flutie 737 J Friesz 4396
J Harbaugh 372 J Harbaugh 636 J Harbaugh 4177
B Tolliver 305 B Tolliver 595 B Tolliver 3671
P Rivers 301 R Leaf 567 T Rote 3666Passing TDs Interceptions
D Fouts 254 D Fouts 242
J Hadl 201 J Hadl 211
S Humphries 85 S Humphries 73
D Brees 80 D Brees 53
J Kemp 37 J Kemp 49
T Rote 29 R Leaf 33
D Flutie 25 T Rote 32
P Rivers 23 C Whelihan 29
B Tolliver 21 J Harbaugh 24
J Friesz 19 B Tolliver 24Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
L Tomlinson 2050 L Tomlinson 9176 L Tomlinson 100
M Butts 1031 P Lowe 4972 C Muncie 43
P Lowe 1015 M Butts 4297 P Lowe 38
N Means 1013 N Means 3885 N Means 34
C Muncie 773 C Muncie 3309 M Butts 31
D Woods 713 D Woods 2858 T Spencer 19
K Lincoln 573 K Lincoln 2698 R Bernstine 17
M Garrett 572 D Post 2519 H Bauer 17
D Post 568 G Anderson 2250 C Williams 17
G Anderson 548 M Garrett 2235 D Post 17Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
C Joiner 586 L Alworth 9584 L Alworth 81
K Winslow 541 C Joiner 9203 G Garrison 58
L Alworth 493 G Garrison 7533 C Joiner 47
G Garrison 404 K Winslow 6741 K Winslow 45
L Tomlinson 398 W Chandler 6132 W Chandler 41
R Harmon 377 A Miller 5582 A Miller 37
A Miller 374 T Martin 4184 J Jefferson 36
W Chandler 373 R Harmon 3928 A Gates 34
T Martin 288 D Kocourek 3720 T Martin 33
A Gates 265 D Norton 3486 D Norton 27
San Francisco 49ers
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Montana 2929 J Montana 4600 J Montana 35124
J Brodie 2469 J Brodie 4491 J Brodie 31548
S Young 2400 S Young 3648 S Young 29907
J Garcia 1449 J Garcia 2360 J Garcia 16408
Y Tittle 1226 Y Tittle 2194 Y Tittle 16016
S Deberg 670 S Deberg 1201 S Deberg 7220
S Spurrier 441 S Spurrier 840 S Spurrier 5250
T Rattay 355 A Smith 607 T Rattay 3945
A Smith 341 F Albert 601 F Albert 3847
F Albert 316 T Rattay 585 A Smith 3765Passing TDs Interceptions
J Montana 244 J Brodie 224
S Young 221 Y Tittle 134
J Brodie 214 J Montana 123
J Garcia 113 S Young 86
Y Tittle 108 S Deberg 60
S Deberg 37 J Garcia 56
S Spurrier 33 S Spurrier 48
F Albert 27 F Albert 43
T Rattay 24 J Plunkett 30
J Plunkett 22 A Smith 27Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
R Craig 1686 J Perry 7344 R Craig 50
K Willard 1582 R Craig 7064 J Perry 50
J Perry 1475 K Willard 5930 K Willard 45
G Hearst 1189 G Hearst 5535 S Young 37
J Smith 1007 J Smith 4370 J Smith 37
K Barlow 891 H McElhenny 4288 H McElhenny 35
H McElhenny 877 K Barlow 3614 G Hearst 26
W Jackson 745 S Young 3581 T Rathman 26
D Williams 669 W Tyler 3112 R Watters 25
R Watters 653 D Williams 2966 K Barlow 24Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
J Rice 1281 J Rice 19247 J Rice 176
T Owens 592 T Owens 8572 T Owens 81
R Craig 508 D Clark 6750 G Washingto 59
D Clark 506 G Washingto 6664 B Wilson 49
B Jones 417 B Wilson 5902 D Clark 48
B Wilson 407 J Taylor 5598 F Solomon 43
G Washingto 371 B Jones 5195 J Taylor 43
J Taylor 347 F Solomon 4873 B Jones 33
J Stokes 327 R Craig 4442 J Stokes 30
F Solomon 310 J Stokes 4139 B Casey 27
Seattle Seahawks
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Krieg 2096 D Krieg 3576 D Krieg 26132
J Zorn 1593 J Zorn 2990 J Zorn 20122
M Hasselbec 1539 M Hasselbec 2547 M Hasselbec18221
R Mirer 814 R Mirer 1523 R Mirer 9094
J Kitna 658 J Kitna 1130 J Kitna 7552
W Moon 458 W Moon 786 W Moon 5310
J Friesz 228 K Stouffer 437 J Friesz 2971
K Stouffer 225 J Friesz 416 T Dilfer 2560
T Dilfer 196 T Dilfer 356 K Stouffer 2333
S Gelbaugh 131 S Gelbaugh 273 J Kemp 1735Passing TDs Interceptions
D Krieg 195 D Krieg 148
M Hasselbec 112 J Zorn 133
J Zorn 107 M Hasselbec 72
J Kitna 49 R Mirer 56
R Mirer 41 J Kitna 45
W Moon 36 W Moon 24
J Friesz 16 K Stouffer 19
T Dilfer 13 J Kemp 18
S Wallace 9 S Myer 14
J Kemp 9 T Dilfer 14Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
S Alexander 1969 S Alexander 8713 S Alexander 96
C Warner 1649 C Warren 6706 C Warner 55
C Warren 1559 C Warner 6705 C Warren 44
J Williams 1148 J Williams 4579 S Smith 28
R Watters 994 R Watters 4009 R Watters 22
S Smith 810 S Smith 3429 D Fenner 19
D Doornink 463 D Doornink 1530 D Sims 19
M Morris 332 J Zorn 1491 J Zorn 17
D Fenner 317 M Morris 1410 J Williams 17
J Zorn 308 L Smith 1286 D Doornink 14Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
S Largent 819 S Largent 13089 S Largent 100
B Blades 581 B Blades 7620 D Jackson 47
J Williams 471 D Jackson 6445 J Galloway 37
D Jackson 441 J Galloway 4457 D Turner 36
J Galloway 283 J Williams 4151 B Blades 34
B Engram 258 S McCullum 3409 S McCullum 21
S McCullum 232 B Engram 3223 J Williams 16
K Robinson 213 K Robinson 3167 J Stevens 15
S Smith 211 S Smith 2342 R Butler 13
M Strong 209 M Pritchard 2288 I Mili 13
St. Louis/LA Rams
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Everett 1847 R Gabriel 3313 J Everett 23758
R Gabriel 1705 J Everett 3277 R Gabriel 22223
M Bulger 1357 M Bulger 2106 M Bulger 16233
K Warner 1121 N VanBrockl 1897 N VanBrockl16114
N VanBrockl 1011 K Warner 1688 K Warner 14447
B Waterfiel 814 B Waterfiel 1617 B Waterfiel11849
P Haden 731 P Haden 1363 V Ferragamo 9376
V Ferragamo 730 V Ferragamo 1288 P Haden 9296
T Banks 685 T Banks 1263 B Wade 8572
B Wade 603 B Wade 1116 T Banks 8333Passing TDs Interceptions
R Gabriel 154 B Waterfiel 128
J Everett 142 N VanBrockl 127
N VanBrockl 118 J Everett 123
K Warner 102 R Gabriel 112
B Waterfiel 97 V Ferragamo 71
M Bulger 95 B Wade 68
V Ferragamo 70 K Warner 65
B Wade 56 P Haden 60
P Haden 52 M Bulger 59
T Banks 36 T Banks 42Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
E Dickerson 1525 E Dickerson 7245 M Faulk 58
M Faulk 1447 M Faulk 6959 E Dickerson 56
L McCutcheo 1435 L McCutcheo 6186 D Towler 43
D Bass 1218 D Bass 5417 D Bass 34
C Bryant 802 D Towler 3493 W Tyler 33
L Josephson 797 L Josephson 3407 T Younger 31
J Bettis 796 T Younger 3296 G Bell 31
S Jackson 734 W Tyler 3266 R Gabriel 28
W Tyler 720 S Jackson 3247 D Hoerner 28
J Arnett 688 C Bryant 3119 S Jackson 25Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
I Bruce 887 I Bruce 13376 I Bruce 80
T Holt 712 T Holt 10675 T Holt 64
H Ellard 593 H Ellard 9761 E Hirsch 53
M Faulk 470 E Hirsch 6299 H Ellard 48
T Fears 400 J Snow 6012 J Snow 45
E Hirsch 343 T Fears 5397 J Benton 42
J Snow 340 F Anderson 5246 T Fears 38
J Phillips 333 J Phillips 4953 H Jackson 36
J Benton 275 J Benton 4566 B Boyd 28
F Anderson 259 M Faulk 4071 J Phillips 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
V Testaverd 1126 V Testaverd 2160 V Testaverd14820
T Dilfer 1117 T Dilfer 2038 T Dilfer 12969
B Johnson 1040 D Williams 1890 D Williams 12648
D Williams 895 B Johnson 1683 B Johnson 10940
S Deberg 813 S Deberg 1414 S Deberg 9439
C Erickson 473 C Erickson 882 C Erickson 6094
S King 368 S King 654 S King 4064
B Griese 345 B Griese 510 B Griese 3768
C Simms 291 S Young 501 J Thompson 3243
J Thompson 274 C Simms 492 S Young 3217Passing TDs Interceptions
V Testaverd 77 V Testaverd 112
D Williams 73 T Dilfer 80
T Dilfer 70 D Williams 73
B Johnson 64 S Deberg 62
S Deberg 61 B Johnson 41
C Erickson 34 C Erickson 31
B Griese 27 J Thompson 26
S King 26 S Young 21
J Thompson 20 S King 20
C Simms 12 B Griese 19Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Wilder 1575 J Wilder 5957 M Alstott 58
M Alstott 1359 M Alstott 5088 J Wilder 37
W Dunn 1070 W Dunn 4200 E Rhett 24
R Cobb 878 M Pittman 3076 R Cobb 21
E Rhett 823 R Cobb 3061 W Dunn 17
R Bell 820 R Bell 3057 R Bell 16
M Pittman 730 E Rhett 2853 L Tate 15
J Eckwood 515 C Williams 1976 D Williams 13
C Williams 515 J Eckwood 1845 M Pittman 10
G Anderson 321 G Anderson 1159 J Owens 8Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
J Wilder 430 M Carrier 5018 J Giles 34
M Carrier 321 K House 4928 K House 31
M Alstott 305 J Giles 4300 M Carrier 27
K Johnson 298 K Johnson 3828 D Moore 24
K House 286 J Wilder 3492 B Hill 23
J Giles 279 G Carter 3443 J Galloway 22
W Dunn 259 B Hill 2942 G Carter 17
M Pittman 258 L Dawsey 2842 K Johnson 17
G Carter 239 J Galloway 2760 R Anthony 16
R Hall 209 C Hawkins 2744 M Owens 14
Washington Redskins
Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Theismann 2044 J Theismann 3602 J Theismann25206
S Jurgensen 1831 S Jurgensen 3155 S Jurgensen22585
S Baugh 1693 S Baugh 2995 S Baugh 21886
M Rypien 1244 M Rypien 2207 M Rypien 15928
B Kilmer 953 B Kilmer 1791 B Kilmer 12352
G Frerotte 744 G Frerotte 1422 G Frerotte 9769
B Johnson 543 E LeBaron 1104 N Snead 8306
M Brunell 542 N Snead 1092 E LeBaron 8068
E LeBaron 539 J Schroeder 1017 J Schroeder 7445
N Snead 531 M Brunell 951 B Johnson 6510Passing TDs Interceptions
S Baugh 187 S Baugh 203
S Jurgensen 179 J Theismann 138
J Theismann 160 S Jurgensen 116
B Kilmer 103 E LeBaron 88
M Rypien 101 M Rypien 75
E LeBaron 59 B Kilmer 75
G Frerotte 48 N Snead 71
N Snead 46 G Frerotte 44
J Schroeder 39 R Guglielmi 40
M Brunell 38 H Gilmer 38Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Riggins 1988 J Riggins 7472 J Riggins 79
L Brown 1530 L Brown 5875 S Davis 45
S Davis 1383 S Davis 5790 T Allen 37
T Allen 1043 T Allen 4086 L Brown 35
E Byner 990 E Byner 3950 G Rogers 31
M Thomas 878 M Thomas 3359 E Byner 25
C Portis 822 C Portis 3354 C Portis 23
D Bosseler 775 D Bosseler 3112 D Bosseler 22
C Harraway 719 G Rogers 2909 G Riggs 21
G Rogers 697 C Harraway 2659 C Harraway 20Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
A Monk 888 A Monk 12026 C Taylor 79
C Taylor 649 C Taylor 9110 A Monk 65
G Clark 549 G Clark 8742 J Smith 60
J Smith 421 B Mitchell 6492 H Taylor 58
R Sanders 414 R Sanders 5854 G Clark 58
B Mitchell 393 J Smith 5496 B Mitchell 49
M Westbrook 277 H Taylor 5233 R Sanders 36
H Taylor 272 M Westbrook 4280 M Westbrook 24
D Warren 244 H Ellard 3930 R Gardner 22
L Brown 238 R Jefferson 3119 J Fugett 21
13 Comments | Posted in History
Chad Pennington and Thomas Jones
There are lots of things to write about the Thomas Jones trade, but most of them aren't that interesting to your average sports fan. I heard one comment, though, that piqued my interest. Roughly speaking, the claim was this:
Chad Pennington is going to be helped out a ton by Thomas Jones. Last year, it wasn't fair how the Jets asked him -- while recovering from consecutive arm surgeries -- to carry the entire offense. It was all on him and his arm, and he played through it all. Now, with Jones there, Pennington should be much better this year.
As usual, "much better" can be interpreted lots of ways. I'll look at two, adjusted yards per attempt, and team wins. As I started thinking about how to test this theory empirically, I realized there are quite a few assumptions we'll have to make to really examine this. There are thousands of QB seasons to look at, so here is how we'll narrow down the list.
- We'll only look at quarterbacks that played on the same team in consecutive years, played in at least ten games in each season, and threw for at least 2,000 yards in each year. Those last two numbers are pretty arbitrary, but they seem to establish a decent floor.
- The 2006 Jets RBs, as a group, rushed 426 times for 1,449 yards, a 3.40 YPC average. You may remember, this was after a historically bad start, too. Jets RBs, as a group, ranked 26th in rushing yards and 30th in YPC. We'll have to be arbitrary again, but the assumption we're using is that Thomas Jones is good, and this helps Pennington. If the Jets RBs, as a group, stink again next year, this analysis would be meaningless. So I'll only look at QBs that played on teams that moved up at least 10 rankings in rushing yards and 10 ranking spots in rushing YPC average the following year.
- Only 37 QBs since the merger have met those requirements, but we'll have to narrow the list a bit more. Why? Our system now will spot someone like the 1990 version of Troy Aikman, who played in 15 games and threw for 2,579 yards for Dallas. The next year, the Cowboys RBs improved from ranking 24th and 23rd to 9th and 8th, in rushing yards and rushing YPC, respectively. And Aikman played in 12 games in 1991, throwing for 2,754 yards. But in 1990, his leading receiver was Kelvin Martin (732 yards), while in 1991 Michael Irvin (1523) more than doubled Martin's output. That surely helped Aikman more than anything else, and the key factor here is that we all expect Coles and Cotchery to lead the Jets in receiving in 2007. So I'm going to stipulate that another requirement is that the same two receivers lead the team in receiving yards the same year. I italicized receivers, because I don't mean wide receivers. If a RB or TE ranks first or second, that's fine too. Additionally, the order doesn't matter, because the Jets won't change much if it's Cotchery that leads the Jets in receiving yards next year, or if Coles does it again.
That whittles the list down to twelve. I think that's a pretty good number. There's too much information for one table, so here is how those QBs all did in the first year, Year N. The categories should be self-explanatory, except note that YdRk is how that team's running backs ranked in rushing yards, and YpcRk is how that team's running backs ranked in rushing yards per carry. I also threw Pennington on the top of the list, but did not include his numbers in the averages.
Name Nyr Tm YdRk YpcRk Receiver1 Receiver2 AY/A W-L
Chad Pennington 2006 nyj 26 30 ColeLa00 CotcJe00 5.78 10-6
Matt Hasselbeck 2002 sea 21 22 RobiKo00 JackDa00 6.62 7 -9
Jay Fiedler 2001 mia 24 30 ChamCh00 McKnJa00 5.86 11-5
Kerry Collins 1999 nyg 25 28 ToomAm00 HillIk00 5.73 7 -9
Mark Brunell 1997 jax 22 23 SmitJi00 McCaKe00 7.23 11-5
Brad Johnson 1996 min 18 18 ReedJa00 CartCr00 6.36 9 -7
John Elway 1994 den 28 27 MillAn00 SharSh00 6.48 7 -9
Wade Wilson 1988 min 20 23 CartAn00 JoneHa00 7.50 11-5
Ken O'Brien 1987 nyj 19 17 ToonAl00 ShulMi00 6.27 6 -9
Warren Moon 1986 oti 26 27 HillDr00 GiviEr00 5.02 5-11
Ron Jaworski 1980 phi 16 21 SmitCh00 CarmHa00 7.23 12-4
Jim Hart 1978 crd 23 25 TillPa00 GrayMe01 5.18 6-10
Ron Jaworski 1977 phi 24 24 CarmHa00 KrepKe00 4.10 5 -9
Average 22 24 6.13 8 -8
To be clear, the above table should be read as follows: Chad Pennington played for the 2006 Jets, whose RBs ranked 26th in rushing yards and 30th in rushing yards per carry, and his top receivers were Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. He averaged 5.78 adjusted yards per attempt, and his team went 10-6.
The rest of the above table list is filled with QBs on bad rushing teams, who played a lot in Year N and Year N+1, and whose top receivers remain unchanged. Here's how those QBs did in Year N+1:
Name N+1yr Tm YdRk YpcRk Receiver1 Receiver2 AY/A W-L
Matt Hasselbeck 2003 sea 7 9 JackDa00 RobiKo00 6.68 10-6
Jay Fiedler 2002 mia 1 3 ChamCh00 McKnJa00 6.02 9 -7
Kerry Collins 2000 nyg 5 15 ToomAm00 HillIk00 6.13 12-4
Mark Brunell 1998 jax 6 4 SmitJi00 McCaKe00 6.77 11-5
Brad Johnson 1997 min 7 5 ReedJa00 CartCr00 5.96 9 -7
John Elway 1995 den 15 3 MillAn00 SharSh00 6.64 8 -8
Wade Wilson 1989 min 6 11 CartAn00 JoneHa00 5.78 10-6
Ken O'Brien 1988 nyj 4 6 ToonAl00 ShulMi00 5.67 8 -7
Warren Moon 1987 oti 13 5 HillDr00 GiviEr00 5.99 9 -6
Ron Jaworski 1981 phi 4 2 CarmHa00 SmitCh00 5.26 10-6
Jim Hart 1979 crd 3 2 TillPa00 GrayMe01 3.72 5-11
Ron Jaworski 1978 phi 8 10 CarmHa00 KrepKe00 4.84 9 -7
Average 7 6 5.79 9 -7
I wasn't sure what before running the numbers what the results would tell us, but the results are clear: don't bump up Chad Pennington's 2007 projections just yet. Not surprisingly, team winning percentage went up with improved running games. But while half of the dozen QBs technically saw an increase in their adjusted yards per attempt ratio, only two of them, and none in the last 19 years, saw significant increases. So the next time you hear someone tell you how Chad Pennington's efficiency numbers should increase this year with an improved rushing attack, ask them why, because it didn't help Wade Wilson or Jim Hart.
Because like Pennington, Wilson and Hart were the starting QBs on the same team for two straight years. And like Pennington, Wilson and Hart had the same top two receivers (Coles/Cotchery, Tilley/Gray, and Carter/Jones) both years. Pennington, Wilson and Hart all had really bad running games the first year, and then added a marquee RB in the off-season (Thomas Jones, Ottis Anderson and Herschel Walker). And they have it even better than Pennington's projections, because we know that the receivers stayed healthy and the RBs did very well, and the rushing game became very good. Yet both quarterbacks saw significant decreases in their passing efficiencies.
I'm not saying that will happen to Pennington, but it's clear that it's incorrect to assume that the addition of Thomas Jones will help Pennington's statistics. By weighing the deck as much as possible -- assuming Pennington plays at least 10 games and throws for 2,000 yards next year, assuming that the Jets running game improves significantly, and assuming that Coles and Cotchery are healthy enough to lead the Jets in receiving -- there's still no evidence to expect Pennington to play better. He might play better because he's finally not recovering from off-season surgery, the offensive line has improved with experience, and he's got a year in this new system under his belt, but I'm not sure his numbers will improve because of Thomas Jones the runner. (I say the runner, because if someone like Reggie Bush came over and the Jets running game improved, Pennington's numbers would likely go up because of Reggie Bush the receiver. But Jones isn't in that class as a receiving back, so it's a moot point in this example.)
I'm filing this post under "Fantasy", so I should include some fantasy football information as well.
|==============Year N==============| |=============Year N+1=============|
QBID Rk Att Yards TD/INT FP Rk Att Yards TD/INT FP
HassMa00 19 419 3075 15/10 230 4 513 3844 26/15 306
FiedJa00 10 450 3290 20/19 282 26 292 2024 14/ 9 176
CollKe00 25 332 2316 8/11 152 8 529 3610 22/13 268
BrunMa00 8 435 3281 18/ 7 267 15 354 2601 20/ 9 220
JohnBr00 19 311 2258 17/10 186 13 452 3036 20/12 234
ElwaJo00 5 494 3490 16/10 276 5 542 3970 26/14 312
WilsWa00 14 332 2746 15/ 9 214 20 362 2543 9/12 170
OBriKe00 12 393 2696 13/ 8 185 18 424 2567 15/ 7 184
MoonWa00 12 488 3489 13/26 228 7 368 2806 21/18 236
JawoRo00 5 451 3529 27/12 288 13 461 3095 23/20 240
HartJi00 9 477 3121 16/18 215 26 378 2218 9/20 128
JawoRo00 5 346 2183 18/21 203 13 398 2487 16/16 180
Average 12 411 2956 16/13 227 14 423 2900 18/14 221
The numbers are pretty similar, with quarterback efficiencies going slightly down, TD/INT ratios going slightly up, and fantasy rankings going slightly down, after significantly improving their running games. (While not shown here, rushing yardage is included in fantasy points and fantasy ranking. E.g., Jay Fiedler rushed for 322 more yards the year before Miami added Ricky Williams than the year after. Once again, don't rush to bump Chad Pennington up your fantasy draft board just because the Jets added Thomas Jones.
19 Comments | Posted in Fantasy, History, Statgeekery
Ranking the receivers yet again
Here are four posts (I, II, III, IV) where I have made some attempt to rank the post-merger wide receivers. This will be another.
Let me start with this basic metric:
Adjusted receiving yards = (rec. yards) + 20*(rec. TDs) + 6*(receptions)
and the rationale behind it:
in The Hidden Game of Football, Carroll, Palmer, and Thorn argue that a touchdown is worth about one point more than having the ball at the one yard line. They also argue that 12 yards (or so) is worth one point. On that basis, they claim that it makes sense to give a 12ish-yard bonus for each touchdown scored. Ten is pretty close to 12, but a bit rounder, so they used that instead. I'm using 20 for no good reason except that it matches most people's intuitions better. You could also argue that the presence of a prolific touchdown-scorer at receiver opens up other red zone possibilities.
Why the six-yard bonus for each reception? The theory is that, given two players with the same number of yards, the one with more catches probably had more third-down catches. And third-down catches are more valuable than other catches because they keep drives alive. Someday I'll do some research with the aim of estimating the number of first-down catches snagged by old-time receivers for whom we don't have play-by-play data, but here is a quickie that gives me at least a little confidence that six yards is in the right ballpark.
I took all wide receiver seasons during the last three years during which the receiver in question had 40 or more first downs (there were 92 of them), and I ran a regression to predict the number of first downs a receiver would have based on his totals in catches and yardage. The result:
Estimated First Downs = 6 + .023*RecYd + .30*Rec
R^2 = .77, so it's a decent fit. Both coefficients are highly significant so there is no question that receptions are worth something, at least in terms of first downs, above and beyond the yardage they generate. The coefficient on receptions is about 13 times that on yards. So if first downs were the only thing that mattered, we'd give a 13-yard bonus per reception. But they're not the only thing that matter. Receivers do more than just actually catch passes that result in first downs. The receiver with fewer catches (and the same yards) presumably had bigger catches. In general, the first downs he did get must have been further down the field than the first downs achieved by the lower yards-per-catch guy. Gaining seven yards on third-and-six is great. But gaining eight yards on third-and-six is better. Gaining twenty is better still.
And what is the value of a first down anyway? Again using the estimates from The Hidden Game, we see that in general possession of the ball is worth about four points, which is equivalent to 50ish yards. So a typical punt that nets say, 30 yards, represents a net loss of 20 yards --- or somewhere between one and two points --- to the punting team. The regression says a catch is worth .3 first downs, so a catch must be worth .3*20, or 6 yards.
These are, of course, broad generalities. Some catches are worth much, much more than others. But we can't, at this point, track down all of Harold Carmichael's third down catches and try to assess the value of each one. So we have to estimate.
OK, so we've got a way to roll a receiver's stat line up into a single number. I think it feels about right, but whether or not that's the best way to do it doesn't concern me too much at the moment. If at some point I decide that 5 or 7 yards per reception makes more sense than 6, or if I want to start using 25 yards per touchdown instead of 20, I can make that change.
The next step is to adjust for the context in which the stats were generated. For all sorts of reasons, the game Cliff Branch was playing differed dramatically from the one Keyshawn Johnson played and is playing. In this post I ruminated on some ideas for accounting for that.
In 2006, 50% of the league's adjusted receiving yards (by WRs) were accounted for by 36 guys. The 36th guy was Deion Branch, who had 1158 adjusted yards. Branch will serve as the baseline for 2006. Anyone who did better than Branch gets credit for the difference. Anyone who did worse than gets a zero (not a negative score).
In 1973, 50% of the league's adjusted receiving yards were accounted for by 22 players, so the 22nd guy (Jerry LeVias, 817 adj. yards) is the baseline. So the top receivers in 1973 get compared to a lower baseline, which is appropriate because receiving yardage was tougher to come by in 1973. But at the same time, the top receivers of 2006 aren't getting unduly penalized for the fact that receiving yards are less concentrated at the top than they were in the 70s.
Finally, I give a receiver this much credit (same as in this post)
1100 * (PlayerAdjYards - BaselineAdjYards) / BaselineAdjYards
for every season in which he was above the baseline.
Here, according to this method, are the top 20 single seasons since 1970:
1. Wes Chandler 1982 1670
2. Jerry Rice 1995 1511
3. Cliff Branch 1974 1451
4. Torry Holt 2003 1443
5. Randy Moss 2003 1443
6. Dwight Clark 1982 1425
7. Isaac Bruce 1995 1398
8. Mike Quick 1983 1369
9. Herman Moore 1995 1352
10. Marvin Harrison 2002 1342
11. Sterling Sharpe 1992 1337
12. Jerry Rice 1986 1253
13. Roy Green 1983 1241
14. Carlos Carson 1983 1236
15. Jerry Rice 1993 1215
16. Jerry Rice 1987 1201
17. Roy Green 1984 1198
18. Harold Carmichael 1973 1186
19. Steve Smith 2005 1185
20. Jerry Rice 1994 1168
It's somewhat encouraging to see the top four seasons include one from each decade, but I can't deny that the 70s seem underrepresented in general. I'm not quite sure what to do about that, or if anything should be done about that. As you'll see, the top receivers of the 70s do rank much higher on this list than on any career stat list (e.g. Cliff Branch ranks #24 here but isn't in the top 50 in terms of total career receiving yards). Do they rank high enough? Who knows?
One final observation before I post the list: while this ranking does make an effort to account for the differing league environments each receiver played in, it makes no effort to account for the differing team environments. Marvin Harrison and Joey Galloway entered the league at essentially the same time, but Harrison has played most of his career with Peyton Manning, while Galloway has played most of his with Rick Mirer, Quincy Carter, Bruce Gradkowsi, et al. It's safe to say the environments they played in were very, very different. So this system is probably best thought of as a ranking of the receivers' statistics, not receivers themselves.
I won't be diminishing the suspense too much if I tell you that Jerry Rice ranks first, so I'll show his numbers to explain what everything means.
1. Jerry Rice 13629
1985 20 30 142
1986 1 29 1253
1987 1 32 1201
1988 3 31 801
1989 1 32 1116
1990 1 34 1159
1991 2 33 720
1992 3 34 860
1993 1 32 1215
1994 1 31 1168
1995 1 32 1511
1996 2 34 670
1998 6 34 492
2000 24 32 164
2001 13 33 450
2002 11 36 560
2003 26 36 140
Rice amassed 13629 Adjusted Yards Above Baseline (AYAB) in his career. Shown below are all the seasons in which he finished above the baseline. The first number after the year is Rice's rank in AY for that season, the second number is the rank of the baseline player, and the final number is his AYAB for the year.
Here are the top 51 among all receivers debuting in 1970 or later, or you can examine the full list of all receivers debuting since 1970 who finished above the baseline at least once:
1. Jerry Rice 13629
1985 20 30 142
1986 1 29 1253
1987 1 32 1201
1988 3 31 801
1989 1 32 1116
1990 1 34 1159
1991 2 33 720
1992 3 34 860
1993 1 32 1215
1994 1 31 1168
1995 1 32 1511
1996 2 34 670
1998 6 34 492
2000 24 32 164
2001 13 33 450
2002 11 36 560
2003 26 36 1402. Marvin Harrison 7750
1996 28 34 85
1997 22 32 151
1998 33 34 6
1999 1 34 1012
2000 2 32 988
2001 1 33 1014
2002 1 36 1342
2003 5 36 862
2004 9 35 646
2005 8 36 673
2006 1 36 9673. Steve Largent 6996
1976 13 24 323
1977 13 24 294
1978 1 26 850
1979 2 24 559
1980 6 28 461
1981 4 27 606
1982 14 29 292
1983 7 31 945
1984 7 30 777
1985 2 30 724
1986 8 29 547
1987 6 32 6124. Torry Holt 6045
2000 4 32 935
2001 6 33 597
2002 10 36 581
2003 2 36 1443
2004 4 35 833
2005 6 36 904
2006 6 36 7485. Cris Carter 5901
1988 29 31 33
1991 17 33 283
1992 28 34 51
1993 7 32 611
1994 3 31 885
1995 5 32 1115
1996 7 34 565
1997 8 32 536
1998 12 34 397
1999 5 34 563
2000 10 32 739
2001 26 33 1196. James Lofton 5774
1978 12 26 250
1979 19 24 155
1980 2 28 611
1981 2 27 630
1982 5 29 713
1983 5 31 1043
1984 6 30 802
1985 8 30 497
1986 21 29 186
1987 12 32 378
1991 13 33 357
1992 19 34 1477. Tim Brown 5625
1988 30 31 1
1992 26 34 59
1993 6 32 642
1994 5 31 787
1995 9 32 782
1996 11 34 466
1997 2 32 773
1998 15 34 361
1999 6 34 532
2000 15 32 534
2001 11 33 513
2002 24 36 1708. Randy Moss 5388
1998 2 34 700
1999 3 34 621
2000 5 32 892
2001 8 33 542
2002 4 36 751
2003 1 36 1443
2004 29 35 95
2005 21 36 3399. Isaac Bruce 5362
1995 2 32 1398
1996 4 34 601
1999 9 34 421
2000 6 32 868
2001 23 33 273
2002 15 36 373
2003 17 36 341
2004 7 35 661
2006 17 36 42110. Michael Irvin 5327
1991 1 33 975
1992 2 34 962
1993 4 32 834
1994 9 31 612
1995 4 32 1138
1996 26 34 90
1997 10 32 490
1998 21 34 22411. Terrell Owens 5253
1997 21 32 179
1998 8 34 449
2000 3 32 977
2001 3 33 854
2002 3 36 784
2003 11 36 598
2004 8 35 658
2005 36 36 0
2006 5 36 75212. Jimmy Smith 5126
1996 10 34 516
1997 7 32 565
1998 7 34 476
1999 2 34 897
2000 12 32 638
2001 5 33 781
2002 19 36 336
2003 30 36 65
2004 17 35 471
2005 20 36 37513. Sterling Sharpe 4913
1988 27 31 59
1989 2 32 1009
1990 6 34 456
1991 21 33 247
1992 1 34 1337
1993 2 32 997
1994 4 31 80614. Rod Smith 4649
1997 9 32 516
1998 4 34 518
1999 23 34 182
2000 1 32 1040
2001 4 33 812
2002 18 36 348
2003 23 36 200
2004 15 35 491
2005 12 36 53815. Gary Clark 4544
1985 13 30 314
1986 4 29 724
1987 3 32 759
1988 20 31 309
1989 7 32 702
1990 4 34 547
1991 3 33 714
1992 10 34 336
1993 24 32 13516. Art Monk 4441
1980 23 28 90
1981 19 27 142
1982 21 29 145
1983 24 31 237
1984 3 30 1081
1985 3 30 657
1986 12 29 464
1988 15 31 402
1989 8 32 682
1990 21 34 122
1991 10 33 41317. Henry Ellard 4400
1985 23 30 97
1987 18 32 305
1988 1 31 1065
1989 5 32 778
1990 3 34 650
1991 16 33 285
1992 34 34 0
1993 19 32 208
1994 7 31 729
1995 24 32 206
1996 30 34 7218. Herman Moore 4232
1992 14 34 291
1993 12 32 275
1994 10 31 602
1995 3 32 1352
1996 1 34 713
1997 3 32 724
1998 20 34 27119. Andre Reed 4159
1986 26 29 80
1987 14 32 340
1988 13 31 439
1989 4 32 833
1990 10 34 364
1991 5 33 565
1992 13 34 302
1993 22 32 145
1994 6 31 768
1996 17 34 232
1997 27 32 77
1998 31 34 820. Mark Clayton 4148
1984 2 30 1121
1985 10 30 351
1986 6 29 586
1987 15 32 337
1988 2 31 857
1989 18 32 407
1991 7 33 48621. Wes Chandler 4135
1979 7 24 345
1980 10 28 367
1981 9 27 442
1982 1 29 1670
1983 17 31 432
1984 28 30 57
1985 4 30 647
1986 22 29 17222. Harold Carmichael 3982
1973 1 22 1186
1974 4 25 606
1975 18 23 130
1977 11 24 348
1978 4 26 637
1979 15 24 184
1980 18 28 168
1981 12 27 293
1982 9 29 42623. Andre Rison 3878
1989 27 32 60
1990 2 34 717
1991 8 33 475
1992 4 34 852
1993 3 32 892
1994 13 31 517
1997 14 32 36124. Cliff Branch 3819
1974 1 25 1451
1975 3 23 481
1976 1 24 988
1977 22 24 49
1978 25 26 37
1979 20 24 106
1980 20 28 147
1982 8 29 435
1983 28 31 12025. Chad Johnson 3818
2002 16 36 365
2003 4 36 919
2004 5 35 732
2005 3 36 971
2006 2 36 82926. Drew Hill 3582
1985 5 30 581
1986 10 29 480
1987 7 32 592
1988 6 31 702
1989 21 32 330
1990 9 34 395
1991 6 33 50027. Mike Quick 3450
1983 1 31 1369
1984 11 30 523
1985 1 30 747
1986 15 29 359
1987 10 32 45128. Roy Green 3441
1982 18 29 196
1983 2 31 1241
1984 1 30 1198
1987 21 32 189
1988 10 31 572
1990 30 34 4329. Dwight Clark 3401
1980 3 28 523
1981 7 27 460
1982 2 29 1425
1983 12 31 583
1984 18 30 232
1985 24 30 92
1986 25 29 8330. Joe Horn 3313
2000 8 32 770
2001 7 33 558
2002 8 36 627
2003 14 36 482
2004 2 35 87631. Cris Collinsworth 3296
1981 11 27 346
1982 4 29 765
1983 9 31 827
1984 14 30 416
1985 9 30 466
1986 11 29 47432. John Stallworth 3254
1977 5 24 491
1978 10 26 261
1979 3 24 513
1981 10 27 350
1982 16 29 266
1984 4 30 1027
1985 11 30 34233. Anthony Miller 3052
1989 6 32 720
1990 13 34 287
1992 6 34 579
1993 5 32 648
1994 17 31 362
1995 16 32 45334. Keenan McCardell 3047
1996 13 34 358
1997 11 32 458
1998 26 34 115
1999 31 34 88
2000 14 32 595
2001 14 33 425
2003 8 36 671
2005 22 36 33235. Hines Ward 3021
2001 20 33 305
2002 2 36 854
2003 7 36 763
2004 22 35 315
2005 17 36 419
2006 22 36 36136. Keyshawn Johnson 2932
1996 27 34 86
1997 20 32 202
1998 5 34 492
1999 10 34 418
2000 23 32 222
2001 9 33 540
2002 20 36 334
2004 25 35 277
2005 26 36 207
2006 28 36 14937. Mark Duper 2926
1983 11 31 688
1984 5 30 821
1986 3 29 808
1987 28 32 51
1990 26 34 68
1991 11 33 386
1992 23 34 9938. Eric Moulds 2922
1998 3 34 598
1999 28 34 141
2000 11 32 703
2001 28 33 99
2002 5 36 720
2003 32 36 41
2004 19 35 412
2005 28 36 20439. Irving Fryar 2875
1986 29 29 0
1990 22 34 105
1991 18 33 272
1992 20 34 135
1993 9 32 346
1994 8 31 624
1995 23 32 207
1996 6 34 568
1997 6 32 61540. Drew Pearson 2859
1974 2 25 1134
1975 6 23 342
1976 7 24 535
1977 4 24 505
1978 23 26 54
1979 9 24 287
1982 29 29 041. Stanley Morgan 2808
1978 17 26 150
1979 10 24 278
1980 12 28 264
1981 17 27 200
1982 10 29 393
1983 18 31 382
1986 2 29 1065
1987 26 32 7242. Derrick Mason 2778
2000 26 32 144
2001 16 33 389
2002 22 36 283
2003 6 36 859
2004 12 35 605
2005 14 36 456
2006 34 36 3743. Steve Watson 2679
1981 3 27 615
1982 11 29 391
1983 10 31 781
1984 8 30 651
1985 17 30 23944. Tony Hill 2643
1978 11 26 255
1979 5 24 384
1980 7 28 456
1981 21 27 104
1982 15 29 290
1983 20 31 363
1984 17 30 232
1985 7 30 546
1986 28 29 845. Wesley Walker 2635
1977 15 24 253
1978 2 26 698
1981 26 27 34
1982 6 29 691
1983 14 31 528
1986 13 29 42946. Carlos Carson 2635
1982 20 29 180
1983 3 31 1236
1984 13 30 423
1985 25 30 68
1987 4 32 72647. Ernest Givins 2601
1986 14 29 367
1987 8 32 553
1988 16 31 359
1989 29 32 33
1990 7 34 421
1991 14 33 303
1992 11 34 329
1993 17 32 23148. Muhsin Muhammad 2582
1998 25 34 179
1999 7 34 520
2000 13 32 635
2002 36 36 0
2003 29 36 77
2004 1 35 966
2005 32 36 46
2006 27 36 15649. Eric Martin 2543
1987 16 32 325
1988 8 31 661
1989 14 32 487
1990 14 34 229
1991 28 33 84
1992 8 34 493
1993 14 32 26150. John Jefferson 2543
1978 3 26 676
1979 4 24 415
1980 1 28 967
1982 28 29 29
1983 16 31 45551. Joey Galloway 2513
1995 20 32 333
1996 21 34 161
1997 12 32 412
1998 17 34 325
2002 26 36 116
2005 7 36 774
2006 20 36 390
17 Comments | Posted in General, History
Coaching and Choking in the Playoffs (Part 2)
Yesterday, we looked at lots of combinations of playoff games featuring a mix of regular season records and prior post-season coaching records. Today we're going to get a bit more precise as we conclude the study, and take a quick look at what happened in 2006.
I think its important to be especially clear on what our goal is. This blog has noted the distinction between retrodictive and predictive systems a few times, and in this comment, PFR reader Jim A provided a very useful link. The basic difference is that retrodictive systems answer the question "which team or coach has accomplished the most in the past" while predictive systems answer the question "which team or coach is most likely to win in the future?" What we're trying to create is a predictive system. There's no denying that Bill Belichick (13-3 playoff record) and Joe Gibbs (17-6 career playoff record) have been much more successful than Marty Schottenheimer (5-13) or Jim Mora Sr. (0-6). But that's as obvious as it is uninteresting. Any retrodictive system would have to place Gibbs and Belichick at the top, and Marty and Mora at the bottom.
But when we're talking about whether Schottenheimer should have been fired, we want to know whether he'll win in the future. We want to know the predictive ability of our system. If we find out that a coach's past post-season record is a useless indicator of his future post-season success, it doesn't mean that Schottenheimer is as accomplished as Belichick; it just means that going forward, we have no reason to expect Belichick to be better than Schottenheimer. Those two statements are very different, and that difference is essential to understanding where we're going with this.
Yesterday, I gave a preview of what we're going to look at today -- multiple regression analysis. For each of the 346 playoff games from 1970-2005, I recorded three input variables and one output variables. The output variable is win/loss; the input variables are: 1) each team's head coach's prior playoff record, 2) the difference in winning percentage of the two teams in the regular season, and 3) where the game was played (home, away or neutral (the Super Bowl)).
Before looking at the variables together, let's look at them individually. Home field advantage is strongly correlated with winning -- the Pearson correlation was 0.362 and the correlation was significant. The difference in regular season winning percentage was even more correlated, 0.442, and significant. As for our third variable, past playoff record? The correlation was just 0.03, and was not significant (0.386 on a 2-tailed test). In other words, there is no historical relationship between a coach's prior post-season record and his future post-season performance in a playoff game.
When you run a least squares multiple regression analysis, the following formula is created:
0.436 + 0.13*HFA + 1.32*RegSeaWin%Diff + 0.01 * PastPlayoffWinDiff
So we might say that a team at home (HFA = 1) that won 2 more games than its opponent (RegSeaWin%Diff = 0.125) and with even head coaches, should be expected to get 0.73 wins (or if the game is played 100 times, should win it 73 times). Notice how small the coefficient for past playoff record is -- the differential among the coaches is going to have minimal predictive power. Further, the P-value for past playoff win differential was 0.15, making it not statistically significant.
So what do you say to your friends who won't believe you when you say a coach's past post-season record is irrelevant to predicting his future post-season success? For starters, they'll probably cite some examples. Maybe the Patriots over the Chargers (2006), the Patriots over the Colts (2003, 2004) or Joe Gibbs' Redskins over lots of teams. But if they try and name several examples, remind them that over 350 playoff games have been played since 1970, so individual examples aren't going to prove much. Then throw out these five examples going the other way:
1) In 1982, Chuck Noll had a 14-4 career post-season record and 4 Super Bowl titles to his resume, while Don Coryell was a choke artist that had gone 2-5 in the playoffs. Coryell's team won in Pittsburgh, 31-28.
2) Tom Flores was coaching the defending SB Champions, had won 2 Super Bowls, and owned a sparkling 8-1 career playoff record. His 11-5 team lost in Seattle (12-4) to Chuck Knox, who had been 6-8 in the playoffs prior to that game.
3) The Great Tom Landry, owner of two SB rings and a 20-14 career post-season record, was coaching another great Cowboys team that went 12-4 in 1983. Hosting the 9-7 Rams, John Robinson in his playoff debut went into Dallas and won, 24-17.
4) Bill Walsh was 7-1 in the playoffs and had won two Super Bowls. His defending champion 49ers team played a Giants team with the same 10-6 record, and a coach in Bill Parcells that had a 1-1 career playoff record. But Parcells' Giants won in 1985, 17-3. (And before you start thinking Parcells shouldn't count as a choke coach because "he's Bill Parcells", note that Parcells lost all three times he had a five game advantage over his opponent. In 1994 (8-3 career playoff record at the time) he lost to Bill Belichick in his first post-season game, in 2003, Parcells (11-6) lost to John Fox in his first playoff game, and in 1989 Parcells (5-2) lost at home to John Robinson, who had an ugly 3-5 playoff record before that game.
5) Don Shula, who had coached in four Super Bowls and won two of them at the time, hosted a New England team in 1985 that was coached by Raymond Berry. Raymond Berry's first full season as a head coach was that year. But Berry's team went into Miami and won, 31-14.
The results are clear: the correlation between past playoff success and future playoff success is extremely small and not statistically significant. But let's take it one step further, as I think you should with almost any study that looks at the post-merger NFL: what's going on lately?
I eliminated all playoff games from before 1993, and ran the same numbers. Now we have a look at the modern, post-free agency era. The Pearson Correlation of past playoff records and winning the next game was 0.000, and of course, not significant. Home field was slightly more correlated than before (0.381) and significant, and regular season record was slightly less correlated (0.417) and significant. Running the least squares multiple regression, we get:
0.500 + 0.00*HFA + 1.32*RegSeaWin%Diff + 0.01 * PastPlayoffWinDiff
Once again, past playoff performance is practically irrelevant, and any effect is not significant statistically (0.21 p-value). What's most curious is how home field advantage has been zeroed out. Perhaps one of our readers can help me out, but the big problem I see is that home field advantage is very closely tied to regular season records: there have been only five games out of 130 where the home team had a worse record than the road team. So I believe what the regression is telling us is that once we know the regular season win differential between the two teams, knowing which team is home isn't very useful. Running the regression with only two variables (removing the HFA variable) does not make past playoff record any more useful.
All the statistical tests I've performed make it clear that in terms of a predictive system, knowing a coach's past post-season record is useless to predicting how he will do in a future playoff game. But for fun I thought I'd look at the 2006 playoff results now.
Here's how the first row in the table can be read. When Bill Belichick played Marty Schottenheimer, Belichick (coach 1) had a +17 playoff win differential (Belichick was 10 games over .500 at 12-2, while Schottenheimer was 7 games under .500 at 5-12), a -2 regular season win differential (New England went 12-4 this year, San Diego went 14-2), was on the road (0 = road, 1 = home) and won (0 = loss, 1 = win).
Coach1 Coach2 PWD RWD HFA W/L
BeliBi0 SchoMa0 17 -2 0 1
BeliBi0 DungTo0 12 0 0 0
BeliBi0 MangEr0 9 2 1 1
BillBr0 DungTo0 5 1 1 0
HolmMi0 SmitLo0 4 -4 0 0
ReidAn0 CougTo0 3 2 1 1
ReidAn0 PaytSe0 3 0 0 0
ParcBi0 HolmMi0 2 0 0 0
EdwaHe0 DungTo0 2 -3 0 0
SmitLo0 DungTo0 1 1 0.5 0
PaytSe0 SmitLo0 1 -3 0 0
Of the 11 games this year, only three times did the coach with the better playoff record win the game: Belichick over Schottenheimer and Mangini, and Reid over Coughlin. It's not much of a stretch to say those latter two games weren't surprising; the Eagles and Patriots were more than a notch above the Giants and Jets this year. The Schottenheimer/Belichick game will forever give ammunition to those who believe that past playoff performance is a strong predictor of future playoff performance -- after all, the most clutch coach ever took a worse team on the road and beat the least clutch coach ever. But let's remember that it was still just one game, and one game that could have very easily gone the other way. Belichick lost to Dungy, Billick lost to Dungy at home, and youngsters Sean Payton and Lovie Smith beat successful playoff coaches Andy Reid and Mike Holmgren.
I thought I'd close things today with just a little bit of anecdotal evidence. For all the Marty-bashing that goes on, his 5-13 record could easily be a lot better. The first five games I think of that he's lost in the playoffs all turned on a single play. If John Elway doesn't have The Drive (thanks to a 3rd and 18 completion), if Byner doesn't commit The Fumble, if Lin Elliot doesn't miss 3 field goals (KC loses 10-7), if Nate Kaeding hits a 40-yard FG in overtime, or if Marlon McCree falls down, Schottenheimer would have been 10-8 instead of 5-13. In terms of retrodictive analysis, that stuff's pretty irrelevant: it happened, and Schottenheimer lost. In terms of predictive analysis, I don't know if Marty would have had to have been any better a coach to have a career winning record in the playoffs.
Schottenheimer also lost a 14-10 game, a 17-16 game, a 24-23 game, and a 24-21 game. He's been in lots of close playoff games, but hasn't come out victorious in many. But considering he's got 200 career wins, and an extensive empirical study shows no correlation between past playoff success and the predictability of future playoff success, I have no doubt that Schottenheimer would have had an excellent chance to win a Super Bowl with the Chargers this year.
36 Comments | Posted in History, Statgeekery
Coaching and Choking in the Playoffs
Over a week ago, the San Diego Chargers became the first team to fire a head coach following a a fourteen-win season. Marty Schottenheimer's team lost its first playoff game, which seems less punishable when you remember what happened the previous two years. In 2004, a 15-1 Steelers team was a Doug Brien field goal away from losing its first playoff game, and got blown out the next week at home; the following year, Bill Cowher brought the city of Pittsburgh its fifth Super Bowl Championship. In 2005, a 14-2 Colts team lost its first playoff game; the following year, Tony Dungy brought the city of Indianapolis its first professional sports title ever (discounting the three ABA titles won in the early 1970s).
Marty Schottenheimer won't get a chance to bring the city of San Diego its first professional sports title (discounting the AFL title in 1963), and you'll hear lots of reasons why. If Schottenheimer was Bill Belichick, we know he wouldn't have been fired. But Belichick has a past history of post-season success, and Schottenheimer has a horrible history of playoff failure. Almost assuredly, if Schottenheimer did not have a poor career record in the playoffs, he would have been retained. While the loss of both assistant coaches was significant, it is my opinion that the overriding factor was the thought that "Marty won't win in the playoffs." This can only make sense if past post-season success is indicative of future post-season success. To make my bias clear, before I conducted this study I believed that statement to be false. Let's see what happens. (Note: I don't care to turn this into a debate on the reasons Schottenheimer was fired. There's currently an 847 post thread on that at our other site.)
From 1970-2005, there were 346 playoff games played in the NFL. To figure out if past playoff prowess is correlated with future post-season success, we need to isolate two factors: regular season record and home field advantage. Because regular season record is highly correlated with home field advantage (the team with the better record has usually been the home team), we're going to leave HFA out for now to make this a bit more palatable.
I hate having to write keys for charts, because that usually means the data isn't presented in its simplest format. But this was the best I could do. Every playoff game has a "clutch" coach and a "choke" coach. The clutch coach is simply the coach with the better career post-season record prior to that game ("better" will be explained in a bit).
RWD = Regular Season Win Differential
N = Number of times two teams met in the playoffs with that differential
Cl Win% = Winning percentage of the "clutch" coaches when they were X games better in the regular season than the opponent.
Ch Win% = Winning percentage of the "choke" coaches when they were X games better in the regular season than the opponent.
Cl Gm = Number of times the "clutch" coach had the better record
Ch Gm = Number of times the "choke" coach had the better record
Ev Gm = The number of times teams with that RWD met and the two coaches had "equivalent" prior post-season records. Equivalent here means both coaches were the same number of games above, at, or below .500. This is only to be complete, since we won't care about these games.
RWD N Cl Win% Ch Win% Cl Gm Ch Gm Ev Gm
6 2 1.000 1.000 1 1 0
5 9 0.667 1.000 3 5 1
4 20 1.000 0.625 9 8 3
3.5 3 1.000 1.000 1 1 1
3 35 0.900 0.833 20 12 3
2.5 4 1.000 0.500 1 2 1
2 74 0.857 0.657 28 35 11
1.5 12 0.600 1.000 5 3 4
1 112 0.682 0.623 44 53 15
0.5 15 0.429 0.500 7 2 6
0 120 0.538 0.462 52 52 16
First, a quick example. When the 1998 (15-1) Vikings played the 1998 (9-7) Cardinals in the playoffs, Dennis Green had a career 1-4 post-season record and Vince Tobin was 1-0 in the playoffs. Green's Vikings won, so that game is filed under RWD as 6, under Ch Gm as 1 (this was the only time the "choke" coach ever had six more regular season wins than his opponent) and under Ch Wins (not presented above) as 1. Then I divided Ch Wins by Ch Gm to get the Ch Win%, which is presented above. Whew.
Let's summarize the table. When two teams face off in the post-season where one team has won five or six more games than the other, the team with the better record (regardless of coaching history) is 11-1. The one loss was when Jerry Burns (1-0) beat mighty Bill Walsh (7-3) in the playoffs, so that's a "clutch" loss.
At four wins better than the opponent, "clutch" coaches are 9-0 but "choke" coaches are only 5-3. Tom Coughlin's upset of Mike Shanahan (1996), Ted Marchibroda's upset of Marty Schottenheimer (1995) and Chuck Noll's upset of Dan Reeves (1984) were the three surprises. All three were by seven points or less. Note that Shanahan (0-0) was considered the "choke" coach and Coughlin (1-0) the "clutch" coach by only the thinnest of margins. We'll address this later today and more thoroughly tomorrow.
At 3/3.5 games better, clutch coaches are 19-2 (John Robinson over Tom Landry in 1984, Chuck Knox over Don Shula in 1983), while choke coaches are 11-2 (Bill Cowher over Tony Dungy, 2005, and Bill Belichick over Mike Martz in SBXXXVI). This illustrates one of the drawbacks of such an approach. Robinson and Knox were both six games behind Landry and Shula (in terms of career post-season records) when they faced, and were clearly big underdogs with respect to playoff success. Martz and Dungy were only one and two games behind Belichick and Cowher at the time, so they had nearly identical playoff records when they faced. So the two clutch losses were much more extreme than the two choke losses.
A wide gap emerges, however, at 2/2.5 games better. Clutch coaches are 25-4, a very respectable winning percentage. Choke coaches are 24-13, which is decidedly more average. Interestingly, in the most extreme discrepancies in games where the choke coach was on a team with two more regular season wins, the choke coach followed history and lost. Dennis Green lost his post-season debut to Joe Gibbs, whose 15-4 record in the playoffs may have mattered more than his team's 9-7 regular season record in 1992. Additionally, Bill Belichick (10-1) beat Jack Del Rio in his post-season debut, but then again, that game was in Foxboro.
The two sets of data converge again when the two regular season teams were within 1.5 games of each other. Both the clutch coach (36-20) and the choke coach (37-21) won 64% of their games when they coached a team with a slightly better regular season record.
When two teams have the same regular season record, clutch coaches have a slight edge, winning 28 of the 52 games. If we had no other data to analyze, this would be what I'd be most curious to see. When the teams are even, who wins? There could be several factors affecting this, so 28/52 isn't conclusive of much.
When coaching a much stronger team, measured by regular season record, both clutch and choke coaches dominate in the post-season. When coaching teams that are a significant but not large amount better, clutch coaches have been noticeably more successful. When coaching teams that are slightly better, clutch and choke coaches appear identical.
As hinted at earlier, we may not be comparing apples to apples. If Coach A has a 1-0 post-season record, and he faces Coach B who owns a 0-1 post-season record, Coach A will be labeled clutch and Coach B will be labeled choke. If Coach A is 10-0 and Coach B is 0-10, the same labels -- clutch and choke -- will apply. But presumably we'd want to focus more heavily on games where there is a large difference in the post-season records. Otherwise, it would be like writing the difference between a 15-1 team and 9-7 team is the same as the difference between a 10-6 team and 9-7 team. Labeling them "good" and "bad" isn't very precise.
We just looked at how the "good" team in every post-season game did (good meaning has X many more regular season wins than the opponent) depending on whether the coach was previously clutch or a choker. Now we're going to look at "clutch" coaches in every post-season game, and see how they fare depending on whether they're coaching a "good" team or a "bad" team. This is susceptible to the same problems, of course, but gives us another way to look at the data. The only reason we talk about clutch coaches in the sense of prior post-season success is because we assume that a clutch coach can beat a choke coach with a bad team. When a good team beats a bad team, we aren't surprised. But how often do "clutch" coaches lead inferior teams to post-season success, and vice versa, how often do "choke" coaches hamper superior teams?
In this chart, we'll need a third column -- even games. Before we dismissed even games because we were analyzing clutch coaching, and if neither coach is clutch, we don't care about the game. Now we might care most about the even games, because that features two teams with the same records.
CF = Clutchness Factor. How many more career post-season wins above .500 the clutch coach had.
N = Number of games where the CF differential was X.
G Win % = Winning percentage by the clutch coach when he had the "good" team (better regular season record)
E Win% = Winning percentage by the clutch coach when the two teams were "even" (same regular season record)
L Win % = Winning percentage by the clutch coach when he had the "bad" team (worse regular season record)
G Gm = Number of games where the clutch coach was on the good team
E Gm = Number of games where the two teams were even
B Gm = Number of games where the clutch coach was on the bad team
CF N G Win% E Win% B Win% G Gm Ev Gm B Gm
10+ 4 --- 0.500 0.500 0 2 2
9 5 --- --- 0.400 0 0 5
8 6 1.000 1.000 0.500 3 1 2
7 4 1.000 --- 0.500 2 0 2
6 22 0.857 0.333 0.083 7 3 12
5 39 0.588 0.600 0.176 17 5 17
4 24 0.615 0.500 0.400 13 6 5
3 50 0.788 0.600 0.250 33 5 12
2 61 0.900 0.786 0.370 20 14 27
1 79 0.792 0.313 0.385 24 16 39
Once again, let's go through a quick explanation and a summary. I'm measuring a coach's record by how many games over .500 he is. If you're 10-5, you're at 5 games over. If you're at 6-13, you're at 8 games under. If those two coaches met, I'd record the difference as +12. This formula works well enough, and the most important thing is that we all know what the formula is, rather than finding the perfect formula.
When Mike Holmgren (9-8) met Joe Gibbs (17-5) in the second round of the 2005 NFC playoffs, Gibbs would be the clutch coach and filed under 10+ wins (since he's actually at +11). Gibbs lost, and he was on the "bad" team since Seattle had won three more games than Washington that year. But when Joe Gibbs (15-4) beat Dennis Green (0-0) thirteen years earlier, he also coached the worse team. Those are the only two times a coach with a 10+ advantage over his opponent coached the team with the worse record in the playoffs (and such a coach has never coached the better team).
On to the summary. When a playoff game features a clutch coach with a large advantage (7 games or more), the clutch coach is 5-0 when coaching the better team and 2-1 when the teams are even. When coaching the worse team, the clutch coach is 5-6. These numbers are more significant than you might initially realize; this means the choke coach is 0-5 when coaching the worse team (compared to 5-6 when the clutch coach has the worse team) and just 6-5 (vs. 5-0) when coaching the better team. Curiously, though, in the most extreme example, the choke coach won. Don Coryell (2-5) met Chuck Noll (14-4) in the playoffs in Pittsburgh, and both teams had gone 6-3 in the regular season. But Coryell's Chargers edged Noll's Steelers, 31-28.
The evidence goes the other way, however, when we look at times when the clutch coach had a 5 or 6 game edge on his opponent. When coaching good teams, he was 16-8; when coaching the worse team he was just 4-25. The converse means while coaching bad teams the choke coach still won 33% of his games, and the "choke" coach won nearly all of the games when he had the better team. The four losses? Chuck Noll (7-2) over Ted Marchibroda (0-1), in 1976; Dan Reeves (9-7) over Dennis Green (2-5) in the 1998 NFC Championship Game, Mike Shanahan (1-1) over Marty Schottenheimer (5-10) in 1997, and Herm Edwards (1-2) over Schottenheimer (5-11) in 2004. Outside of those games, the evidence strongly points to clutch coaches doing worse than choke coaches for this stretch. There are many more games like Bill Parcells losing to John Fox than Herm Edwards beating Schottenheimer.
When we look at coaches with 3 or 4 game advantages, we see a very small edge going to the "clutch" coaches. In those games clutch coaches are 6-5 against choke coaches when both teams have the same regular season record. When the clutch coach is on the good team, his record is 34-12 (74%), and when the clutch coach is on the bad team, his record is 5-12 (29%). Conversely, choke coaches win 71% of the time and 26% of the time when on the good, and bad teams, respectively.
This effect is magnified even more when we look at coaches with just slight advantages, a one or two game lead. I'm not sure this is conclusive of anything, because if there is something to this clutch ability, it shouldn't increase as we get to the least clutch coaches. Anyway, clutch coaches are 37-7 when they coach the good team, while choke coaches are just 41-25 when they're on the good team. Clutch coaches are also 16-14 against the chokers when the teams are even.
So where does that leave us? None of the above methods are perfect, since there are some drawbacks to those tools. In both examples, we made team strength (good/bad) and coaching history (clutch/choke) into binary categories, when of course they are not. As a result, some effects could be hidden. The best way to solve this is to use a regression analysis. I didn't do that today because regression analysis is useless to people who don't understand regression. The tables presented at least bring the numbers to life. Tomorrow, though, we'll sacrifice simplicity for precision, and the results are pretty interesting.
18 Comments | Posted in History, Statgeekery
Quarterback Play in the Playoffs
I've often wondered how much worse quarterbacks play in the playoffs than in the regular season. With the 2006 season in the books, I now have data on the last forty years of NFL post-season play. It's safe to assume that in the aggregate, the statistics of players at any position decreases in the playoffs. This is true for two reasons, one obvious and one hidden. First, we know that the average playoff opponent has a better team, a better offense and a better defense than the average regular season opponent. Against better opponents, we'd expect poorer statistics.
The other idea is that teams that make the playoffs may not be as good as we think. Over at our other site, I do a lot of writing on rearview strength of schedule analysis, which adjusts regular season performance for strength of schedule. One thing I've noticed is that many times the quarterbacks that post the best regular season numbers are the ones that play the weakest schedules. I'd suspect there's at least a decent correlation between great quarterback statistics and qualifying for the post-season, so we might see QBs that aren't as good as they seem go up against much harder defenses in the playoffs. As a result, we can certainly expect to see QB Ratings and Adjusted Yards/Attempt dip in the post-season.
Let's start by looking at the wrong way to do it. Since 1967, all NFL QBs have completed 13,162 of 23,653 passes (55.65%) for 162,201 yards (6.86 Y/A) with 975 TD/ 1004 INT (5.36 AY/A, 73.3 QB Rating). For starters, we don't have too much to compare that to, although I think most of us know that those numbers are below the league averages these days.
What we really want to know is what happens to specific QBs in the playoffs. To do that, we need to compare every QB's regular season performance with their post-season performance. Let's get some administrative stuff out of the way early. Jarious Jackson, Jason Garrett, Bobby Hoying, Bill Musgrave, Dave Brown, Andre Ware and Rich Gannon threw post-season passes in years without throwing a regular season pass. Since there was no regular season to compare their post-season numbers to, I threw those statistics out. Additionally, three QBs -- Pete Beathard, Bernie Kosar and Steve Walsh -- played for two teams in the regular season in years they made the playoffs. I included their regular season numbers only from the team they made the playoffs with.
That leaves 909 games played by QBs in the post-season during the last 40 years. To determine how we might expect them to play, we need to get a weighted average of their number of post-season attempts by their regular season QB ratings. For example, take the small hypothetical list:
QB RegQBR Postseason Atts
QB1 100.0 100
QB2 90.0 20
QB3 70.0 70
In that hypothetical three quarterback world, we'd expect their aggregate QB rating in the playoffs (assuming that the playoffs were no different than the regular season) to be 87.89. That's because [ (100.0 * 100) + (90.0 * 20) + (70.0 * 70) ] / (100 + 70 + 20) = 87.89.
Now we can apply that logic to the actual results, only with several hundred QBs and several thousand attempts. Over the course of the 23,000+ post-season attempts, thrown by many great and some terrible quarterbacks, we'd have projected a QB rating of 83.6 and an AY/A of 6.30.
In reality, the aggregate post-season QB rating is 73.2 and the AY/A is 5.37 (the numbers are slightly different than before because of the QBs removed from the data). So we can say with a reasonable degree of confidence that "playing in the post-season" reduces a player's QB rating by about 12-13% and adjusted yards per attempt by 14-15%. I'm not sure if this reinforces what the average fan believes, but this seems pretty reasonable to me. I'm not sure how much the decline should be divided up among tougher weather conditions, teams with easy schedules making the playoffs, overall stiffer competition in the playoffs, and other distinctions.
Removing all QBs with fewer than 100 regular season attempts doesn't change the sample size much. Their actual aggregate performance compiled a 73.7 QB Rating and 5.41 AY/A, while we'd have projected an 84.5 QBR and 6.37 AY/A. Once again, a noticeable decrease in QB efficiency. But why not break things down even more.
Expected QBR and AY/A statistics by round
w 83.1 6.20
d 83.5 6.28
c 85.9 6.55
s 89.3 6.84
W, D, C and S stand for the Wildcard, Divisional, Conference Championship and Super Bowl rounds. As you can tell, the numbers increase slightly as we move to the later rounds, which is about what we'd expect. Generally the best regular season QBs move on to the later rounds, so we'd expect better QB Ratings and AY/A there. But of course, this assumes that defenses (and everything else) remains constant in the post-season, which we know it does not. So what actually happened in the four playoff rounds?
w 79.1 5.78
d 71.4 5.27
c 70.0 5.08
s 76.2 5.68
There have been a few standout performances in the Super Bowl, but in general we've seen actual performance go down as we move further into the playoffs. The conference championship round in particular has been rough for QBs, which may reflect that many of those are played in cold weather stadiums, whereas Super Bowl XLI was the first one with suboptimal conditions.
But by far the most significant result comes when looking at win/loss splits. Sure, we should expect winning QBs to have high QB ratings and losing QBs to have low QB ratings, but the split is enormous. Based on the specific QBs that won a playoff game, we'd expect an 86.6 QBR and 6.58 AY/A. They actually had a 92.9 QBR and averaged 7.17 AY/A.
Losing QBs would be expected to have, based on their regular season numbers, an 82.8 QBR and averaged 6.21 AY/A. In reality? A 58.4 QBR and an ugly 4.01 AY/A.
It's unclear which is the chicken (losing) and which is the egg (low QB Rating) but there's certainly a very high correlation.
After chewing on that for a minute, the natural follow up question popped into my head: what's the splits among winners and losers in the regular season? From 2001-2005, winning QBs in the regular season had a 94.1 QBR and averaged 7.04 AY/A. Losing QBs had a 68.2 QBR and averaged 4.68 AY/A. We're not drawing from the same population (regular season data is from five recent seasons, playoff data spans four decades), but the results are pretty similar. I'm not too sure what to make of it, but it wasn't what I was expecting. For what it's worth, in the post-season from 2001-2005 winning QBs scored a 100.2 QBR and averaged 7.56 AY/A, versus losing QBs having a 66.0 QBR and a 4.56 AY/A) average.
11 Comments | Posted in General, History
More postseason data added to the site
For a long while, the site only had postseason game stats from 1975 to the present. Now I've got it back to 1967 so you can see, e.g., Roger's Staubach's complete playoff history:
Year Opp Result | CMP ATT PYD PTD INT | RSH YD TD
=====================+==========================+=================
1969 cle L,14-38 | 4 5 44 1 0 | 3 22 0
1971 min W,20-12 | 10 14 99 1 0 | 2 2 0
1971 sfo W,14-3 | 9 18 103 0 0 | 8 55 0
*1971 mia W,24-3 | 12 19 119 2 0 | 5 18 0
1972 sfo W,30-28 | 12 20 174 2 0 | 3 23 0
1972 was L,3-26 | 9 20 98 0 0 | 5 59 0
1973 ram W,27-16 | 8 16 180 2 2 | 4 30 0
1973 min L,10-27 | 10 21 89 0 4 | 5 30 0
1975 min W,17-14 | 17 29 256 1 0 | 7 24 0
1975 ram W,37-7 | 16 26 220 4 1 | 7 54 0
*1975 pit L,17-21 | 15 24 204 2 3 | 5 22 0
1976 ram L,12-14 | 15 37 150 0 3 | 2 8 0
1977 chi W,37-7 | 8 13 134 1 1 | 4 25 0
1977 min W,23-6 | 12 23 165 1 1 | 4 4 0
*1977 den W,27-10 | 17 25 183 1 0 | 3 6 0
1978 atl W,27-20 | 7 17 105 0 0 | 1 3 0
1978 ram W,28-0 | 13 25 126 2 2 | 3 7 0
*1978 pit L,31-35 | 17 30 228 3 1 | 4 37 0
1979 ram L,19-21 | 13 28 150 1 1 | 1 3 0
=====================+==========================+=================
TOTAL | 224 410 2827 24 19 | 76 432 0
About a month ago I posted this look at the all-time great playoff performers, but the metric I used didn't properly adjust for the differing conditions of each era. Doing so will be fairly complicated, and I need to give it a bit more thought before I have something that I'm happy with, but for now I'll just post some of the best performances of the 1967--1977 period.
These lists are only very roughly in order of impressiveness. Extra credit is giving for winning, and also for winning in the later rounds (i.e. Super Bowls get more weight than Championship games, which get more weight than divisional games)
Quarterbacks
Roger Staubach 1975 C: w, 37- 7 vs ram | 16-26-220-4-1 | 7- 54-0 |
Terry Bradshaw 1975 S: w, 21-17 vs dal | 9-19-209-2-0 | 4- 16-0 |
Joe Namath 1968 C: w, 27-23 vs oak | 19-49-266-3-1 | 1- 14-0 |
Daryle Lamonica 1968 D: w, 41- 6 vs kan | 19-39-347-5-0 | 0- 0-0 |
Joe Kapp 1969 C: w, 27- 7 vs cle | 7-13-169-1-0 | 8- 57-1 |
Bart Starr 1967 C: w, 21-17 vs dal | 14-24-191-2-0 | 1- 1-1 |
Ken Stabler 1974 D: w, 28-26 vs mia | 20-30-293-4-1 | 3- 7-0 |
Billy Kilmer 1972 C: w, 26- 3 vs dal | 14-18-194-2-0 | 3- 15-0 |
Craig Morton 1977 C: w, 20-17 vs oak | 10-20-224-2-1 | 2- -4-0 |
Fran Tarkenton 1973 S: l, 7-24 vs mia | 18-28-182-0-1 | 4- 17-1 |
Johnny Unitas 1970 C: w, 27-17 vs oak | 11-30-245-1-0 | 2- 9-0 |
George Blanda 1970 C: l, 17-27 vs bal | 17-32-271-2-3 | 0- 0-0 |
Len Dawson 1969 S: w, 23- 7 vs min | 12-17-142-1-1 | 3- 11-0 |
Earl Morrall 1968 D: w, 24-14 vs min | 13-22-280-2-1 | 0- 0-0 |
Ron Jaworski 1975 D: w, 35-23 vs stl | 12-23-203-1-0 | 8- 7-1 |
John Brodie 1970 D: w, 17-14 vs min | 16-32-201-1-0 | 2- 3-1 |
James Harris 1974 C: l, 10-14 vs min | 13-23-248-1-2 | 3- 17-0 |
Don Meredith 1967 D: w, 52-14 vs cle | 10-12-212-2-0 | 2- 6-0 |
Bob Griese 1971 C: w, 21- 0 vs bal | 4- 8-158-1-1 | 1- 12-0 |
Ken Anderson 1975 D: l, 28-31 vs oak | 17-27-201-2-0 | 3- 12-0 |
Frank Ryan 1967 D: l, 14-52 vs dal | 14-30-194-2-1 | 2- 14-0 |
Bill Nelsen 1969 D: w, 38-14 vs dal | 18-27-219-1-0 | 0- 0-0 |
Roman Gabriel 1969 D: l, 20-23 vs min | 22-32-150-2-1 | 4- 26-0 |
Running Backs
Larry Csonka 1973 S: w, 24- 7 vs min | 33-145-2 | 0- 0-0 |
Preston Pearson 1975 C: w, 37- 7 vs ram | 7- 20-0 | 7-123-3 |
Matt Snell 1968 S: w, 16- 7 vs bal | 30-121-1 | 4- 40-0 |
Franco Harris 1974 S: w, 16- 6 vs min | 34-158-1 | 0- 0-0 |
Tom Matte 1968 C: w, 34- 0 vs cle | 17- 88-3 | 2- 15-0 |
Chuck Foreman 1976 C: w, 24-13 vs ram | 15-118-1 | 5- 81-0 |
Duane Thomas 1971 S: w, 24- 3 vs mia | 19- 95-1 | 3- 17-0 |
Hewritt Dixon 1967 C: w, 40- 7 vs hou | 21-144-1 | 1- 8-0 |
Norm Bulaich 1970 C: w, 27-17 vs oak | 22- 71-2 | 0- 0-0 |
Pete Banaszak 1976 S: w, 32-14 vs min | 10- 19-2 | 0- 0-0 |
Tom Nowatzke 1970 S: w, 16-13 vs dal | 10- 33-1 | 1- 45-0 |
Tony Dorsett 1977 S: w, 27-10 vs den | 15- 66-1 | 2- 11-0 |
Clarence Davis 1976 S: w, 32-14 vs min | 16-137-0 | 0- 0-0 |
Walt Garrison 1970 C: w, 17-10 vs sfo | 17- 71-0 | 3- 51-1 |
Ed Podolak 1971 D: l, 24-27 vs mia | 17- 85-1 | 8-110-1 |
Lawrence McCutcheon 1976 C: l, 13-24 vs min | 26-128-1 | 2- 18-0 |
Leroy Kelly 1968 D: w, 31-20 vs dal | 20- 87-1 | 2- 46-1 |
Dave Osborn 1969 C: w, 27- 7 vs cle | 18-108-1 | 0- 0-0 |
Donny Anderson 1967 S: w, 33-14 vs oak | 14- 48-1 | 2- 18-0 |
Mike Garrett 1969 S: w, 23- 7 vs min | 11- 39-1 | 2- 25-0 |
Craig Baynham 1967 D: w, 52-14 vs cle | 13- 50-2 | 1- 3-1 |
Marv Hubbard 1973 D: w, 33-14 vs pit | 20- 91-2 | 1- 17-0 |
Charlie Smith 1969 C: l, 7-17 vs kan | 12- 31-1 | 8- 86-0 |
Robert Newhouse 1977 C: w, 23- 6 vs min | 15- 81-1 | 2- 5-0 |
Don Nottingham 1971 D: w, 20- 3 vs cle | 23- 92-2 | 1- 5-0 |
Travis Williams 1967 D: w, 28- 7 vs ram | 18- 88-2 | 1- 8-0 |
Larry Schreiber 1972 D: l, 28-30 vs dal | 26- 52-3 | 3- 20-0 |
Jim Kiick 1972 S: w, 14- 7 vs was | 12- 38-1 | 2- 6-0 |
Don Perkins 1967 D: w, 52-14 vs cle | 18- 74-2 | 1- 4-0 |
Reggie Harrison 1976 D: w, 40-14 vs bal | 10- 40-2 | 4- 37-0 |
Wide Receivers
Lynn Swann 1975 S: w, 21-17 vs dal | 0- 0-0 | 4-161-1 |
Haven Moses 1977 C: w, 20-17 vs oak | 1--10-0 | 5-168-2 |
Charley Taylor 1972 C: w, 26- 3 vs dal | 0- 0-0 | 7-146-2 |
Fred Biletnikoff 1968 D: w, 41- 6 vs kan | 0- 0-0 | 7-180-3 |
Don Maynard 1968 C: w, 27-23 vs oak | 0- 0-0 | 6-118-2 |
Bill Miller 1967 S: l, 14-33 vs gnb | 0- 0-0 | 5- 84-2 |
Cliff Branch 1974 C: l, 13-24 vs pit | 0- 0-0 | 9-186-1 |
Boyd Dowler 1967 C: w, 21-17 vs dal | 0- 0-0 | 4- 77-2 |
Otis Taylor 1969 S: w, 23- 7 vs min | 0- 0-0 | 6- 81-1 |
Paul Warfield 1971 C: w, 21- 0 vs bal | 0- 0-0 | 2-125-1 |
Gene Washington 1969 C: w, 27- 7 vs cle | 0- 0-0 | 3-120-1 |
George Sauer 1968 S: w, 16- 7 vs bal | 0- 0-0 | 8-133-0 |
Harold Jackson 1974 C: l, 10-14 vs min | 0- 0-0 | 3-139-1 |
Sammy White 1976 S: l, 14-32 vs oak | 1- 7-0 | 5- 77-1 |
Warren Wells 1968 D: w, 41- 6 vs kan | 0- 0-0 | 4- 93-2 |
Ray Perkins 1970 C: w, 27-17 vs oak | 0- 0-0 | 2- 80-1 |
Butch Johnson 1977 S: w, 27-10 vs den | 1- -9-0 | 2- 53-1 |
Drew Pearson 1973 D: w, 27-16 vs ram | 0- 0-0 | 2- 87-2 |
Bob Hayes 1967 D: w, 52-14 vs cle | 0- 0-0 | 5-144-1 |
Golden Richards 1977 S: w, 27-10 vs den | 0- 0-0 | 2- 38-1 |
John Gilliam 1974 D: w, 30-14 vs stl | 1- 16-0 | 2- 54-2 |
Billy Parks 1972 D: w, 30-28 vs sfo | 0- 0-0 | 7-125-1 |
John Henderson 1969 S: l, 7-23 vs kan | 0- 0-0 | 7-111-0 |
Rod Sherman 1969 D: w, 56- 7 vs hou | 0- 0-0 | 4- 60-2 |
Charley Frazier 1967 C: l, 7-40 vs oak | 0- 0-0 | 7- 81-1 |
Howard Twilley 1972 S: w, 14- 7 vs was | 0- 0-0 | 1- 28-1 |
Lance Alworth 1971 S: w, 24- 3 vs mia | 0- 0-0 | 2- 28-1 |
Mike Siani 1975 C: l, 10-16 vs pit | 0- 0-0 | 5- 80-1 |
Eddie Hinton 1970 C: w, 27-17 vs oak | 0- 0-0 | 5-115-0 |
Carroll Dale 1967 D: w, 28- 7 vs ram | 0- 0-0 | 6-109-1 |
Frank Lewis 1976 D: w, 40-14 vs bal | 0- 0-0 | 2-103-1 |
Tight Ends
John Mackey 1970 S: w, 16-13 vs dal | 2- 80-1 |
Dave Casper 1976 S: w, 32-14 vs min | 4- 70-1 |
Larry Brown 1974 S: w, 16- 6 vs min | 3- 49-1 |
Stu Voigt 1976 S: l, 14-32 vs oak | 4- 49-1 |
Mike Ditka 1971 S: w, 24- 3 vs mia | 2- 28-1 |
Pete Lammons 1968 C: w, 27-23 vs oak | 4- 52-1 |
Ron Howard 1975 S: l, 17-21 vs pit | 1- 34-1 |
Randy Grossman 1975 S: w, 21-17 vs dal | 1- 7-1 |
Billy Joe Dupree 1977 S: w, 27-10 vs den | 4- 66-0 |
Russ Francis 1976 D: l, 21-24 vs oak | 4- 96-1 |
Alvin Reed 1969 D: l, 7-56 vs oak | 7- 81-1 |
Bob Moore 1975 D: w, 31-28 vs cin | 6- 57-1 |
Dave Kocourek 1967 C: w, 40- 7 vs hou | 1- 17-1 |
Milt Morin 1969 D: w, 38-14 vs dal | 4- 52-1 |
Earl Thomas 1974 D: l, 14-30 vs min | 6- 64-1 |
Riley Odoms 1977 D: w, 34-21 vs pit | 5- 43-1 |
Marv Fleming 1971 D: w, 27-24 vs kan | 4- 37-1 |
Billy Truax 1969 D: l, 20-23 vs min | 5- 47-1 |
Jim Mandich 1973 D: w, 34-16 vs cin | 3- 28-1 |
Bob Windsor 1970 C: l, 10-17 vs dal | 3- 70-0 |
Bob Klein 1974 D: w, 19-10 vs was | 2- 23-1 |
Paul Seymour 1974 D: l, 14-32 vs pit | 2- 35-1 |
Jerry Smith 1971 D: l, 20-24 vs sfo | 3- 32-1 |
1 Comment | Posted in History, P-F-R News
My life story, one Super Sunday at a time
Tonight was the 30th Super Bowl I've watched. In the span of those 30 years, I've lived in twelve different domiciles in six different towns in five different states with seventeen different people. I've watched Super Bowls in 22 different places. I've gone from being a seven-year-old to having a seven-year-old.
I decided to bung down a paragraph about my memories of each Super Bowl, and I've found that doing so was a good way of remembering people, places, and times that I hadn't thought about in awhile. Please add your own memories in the comments.
1977 (1st grade): Cowboys over Broncos - As I mentioned in this post, I'm not sure if I really remember this game or if I've just convinced myself that I remember it.
1978 (2nd grade): Steelers over Cowboys - The only clear memory I have of this game is that I forced my brothers (who weren't nearly as into football as I was) to go outside and play football with me at halftime. We played for what seemed like hours and hours. But when we went back inside, it was still halftime. Super Bowl halftimes are long. I guess that's a lesson we all have to learn the hard way.
1979 (3rd grade): Steelers over Rams - My family went to a Super Bowl party at some friends' house. Nothing memorable about this one.
1980 (4th grade): Raiders over Eagles - I watched this game alone in my parents' bedroom; I guess the rest of the family wanted to watch something else on the main TV. This was the first time (of many) that the result of a Super Bowl really made me mad. I was a Seahawk fan back in those days, so I disliked the Raiders. And my dislike of the Cowboys put me on the Eagles' bandwagon at an early stage of the season. Plus Kenny King was a Sooner. It all adds up to a disappointing game.
1981 (5th grade): 49ers over Bengals - I remember very little about this game. This one, in fact is the only one that I don't know where I was when I watched it. I was rooting for the Bengals (loved those stripes!) and was displeased with the outcome, but I don't remember anything else. Oddly, I do remember both conference championship games --- The Catch and Air Coryell in the cold --- vividly.
1982 (6th grade): Redskins over Dolphins - I watched this one at home. It was on the main TV, but I don't remember anyone watching it with me. Another disappointment, as I liked the Killer Bs.
1983 (7th grade): Raiders over Redskins - I went to a friends' house to watch this one. True story: for English class, we had to write a bunch of poems. One of mine included this nifty rhyme:
But seriously folks, the Skins will win,
By 3, sixteen, or a-hundred-and-ten
I have since tried to forget about that poem, but I have a friend from that 7th grade English class who continues to remind me about it to this day. I was rooting for the Skins, so the game itself was another letdown, but I distinctly remember this particular game teaching me about the value of good cornerbacks. Mike Haynes' and Lester Hayes' domination of Charlie Brown and Art Monk left a big impression on me.
1984 (8th grade): 49ers over Dolphins - I had a friend over to my house to watch this one, and he wasn't really into football. I'm not sure why he was over that day, but I didn't get much of this game watched. Probably for the best as it was the fifth straight year that the side I was backing came up short.
1985 (9th grade): Bears over Patriots - I remember watching this at my house, but don't remember who, if anyone, was watching it with me. I did not like either team and didn't have much of a rooting interest either way.
1986 (10th grade): Giants over Broncos - I went to a Super Bowl party at a local pizza establishment. There were girls there. I played down the crazed football fan act, but the ladies were somehow still able to keep their hands off me, which allowed me to get a lot of actual game-watching done. I hated Elway and did not yet hate Parcells, so I was pleased with the outcome.
1987 (11th grade): Redskins over Broncos - I watched this at a friend's house with several other buddies (no girls this time). Elway certainly did not do anything during the 1987 season to make me stop hating him, so this was another happy outcome.
1988 (12th grade): 49ers over Bengals - This was with essentially the same group of guys as the previous year, but at a different friend's house. I remember the Tim Krumrie play, of course, and the revolutionary 3D commercial. I didn't watch the commercial, mind you. I just remember that there was one. I also remember that there was some debate about whether the 3D effects would still be present if you recorded them on a VCR. Whatever rooting interest I had was pretty mild and dissolved quickly enough to allow me to appreciate a great game.
1989 (freshman in college): 49ers over Broncos - I watched very little of this game. NFL football actually slipped pretty far down the priority list during my freshman year.
1990 (sophomore in college): Giants over Bills - Football was back in my routine and I watched this in my dorm room with the kind of rotating mob of slobs that was and is the norm in dorm rooms the world over. Like the 49ers/Bengals game of two years ago, this was a great game. Unlike that game, the final outcome prevented me from enjoying it. Mostly, I was rooting for former Oklahoma State Cowboy Thurman Thomas. But there was more. Back in my hot youth, I used to get frustrated when the "better team" (as determined by me, of course) didn't win. I've softened on that quite a bit over the years, but this one really burned me up.
1991 (junior year): Redskins over Bills - I watched this in my apartment with essentially the same bunch of slobs as the previous year. To me, this game is most memorable as the backdrop of the first Simpsons Super Bowl episode: Lisa the Greek.
1992 (senior year): Cowboys over Bills - I watched this at my apartment with a smaller bunch of slobs. I was a big Cowboy fan at this time and so loved every minute of this game. Having already admitted to disliking the Cowboys earlier, I'd better explain why that changed. It was because of Jimmy Johnson. He was, of course, the head coach of my Oklahoma State Cowboys for a time, so that's good. He never beat the Sooners while he was in Stillwater, but he made up for that by moving to Miami and becoming the only guy who could beat the Sooners during the late 80s. When he got hired by the Cowboys, and started bringing Hurricanes with him, it was only natural that I would start rooting for the Cowboys.
1993 (grad school): Cowboys over Bills again - I watched this with a relatively small group of people at the apartment of a friend. This game was not particularly notable.
1994 (grad school): 49ers over Chargers - I watched this with a group of people I barely knew, but it wasn't an organized enough affair to constitute a Super Bowl Party. Not a memorable game or event.
1995 (grad school): Cowboys over Steelers - this one happened just a few blocks from my apartment in Tempe. Classes were cancelled the Friday before the game. I did not indulge in any of the pre- or post-game craziness because, well, because that's just not the kind of thing I enjoy indulging in.
If I recall correctly, the NFL offered 200 tickets to ASU students and faculty via a lottery. As a grad student / TA, I was eligible to enter both the student lottery and the faculty lottery. I won neither, so watched the game from my apartment. Careful readers of the 1992 recap will not be surprised to learn that I really hated the Cowboys at this point and was ticked off about this game. Also, it was (and still is) frustrating to have to explain to people that possibly, just possibly, Neil O'Donnell wasn't necessarily at fault for those ugly interceptions.
Sobering side note: Just last week, I was talking Super Bowl with a student in my class. I asked him which Super Bowl was the first one he remembered. He answered this one.
1996 (grad school): Packers over Patriots - I watched this one in my apartment with a roommate who was a great guy but did not like football. I did not like this Packer team but also didn't want a really crummy New England team to win, so I was indifferent to the outcome.
1997 (grad school): Broncos over Packers - I think this is my favorite Super Bowl of all time. I didn't really like the Broncos, but I had warmed just a little to Elway, Terrell Davis had carried my fantasy team for a couple of years, and I was really sick of the Favre schtick, so I was rooting for Denver pretty hard. I watched this game all by myself, and I think that was a big part of why I enjoyed it so much. Super Bowl parties can be fun in other ways, but they certainly do alter the way you watch the game. This was just like a normal football game, but it happened to be a really, really good one.
1998 (grad school (yeah, that's six years, you wanna make something of it?)): Broncos over Falcons - I went to a full-fledged Super Bowl party and enjoyed it about as much as you can enjoy one, I guess. Not a memorable game. I was rooting for the Broncos, but wasn't too heavily invested in it.
1999 (I'm not sure how to categorize myself at this point. Let's say age 28): Rams over Titans - We had just moved to New Hampshire and my wife and I were invited to a Super Bowl party at the home of some friends. My wife and I had, at this point, been together for six Super Bowls, but this is the first time she had ever watched one with me. As far as I know, it may be the first time she ever watched one period [Update: no, it's not, she informs me. "People watch the Super Bowl," she says]. My son, not typically a raging crier, decided to scream his head off for the entire first quarter and into the second. Eventually he fell asleep, but it was really draining and by the time the game was over I didn't much care what the heck happened in it. I am an Isaac Bruce fan, though, so was glad to see him have a good game.
2000 (age 29): Ravens over Giants - I was at a job interview from Saturday through Monday of Super Bowl week. They put me up in a bed-and-breakfast, which was nice but had no TV in the room. The people in charge of keeping me entertained were friendly, so I felt comfortable offering up a semi-serious, "where am I supposed to watch the Super Bowl." The response was, "hmmm, I guess the Super Bowl is this weekend, isn't it? Hmmmm. Maybe we can find someplace for you to watch it." As it turns out, there was a dinner planned at someone's home for Sunday night anyway, so all they had to do was flip on the game. It's not clear if they would have turned it on were it not for my request.
I was not offered the job.
2001 (age 30): Patriots over Rams - I watched this at my house with my friend JC (of sabernomics fame), and our wives. I won't discuss the game itself because it would violate the self-imposed probation agreement that this blog agreed to after the Patriots Rant, but the company was good.
2002 (age 31): Bucs over Raiders - I watched this in the same location and with exactly the same cast of characters as the previous year. Again the company was good, but the result was dissatisfying. I never really have like the Raiders, but I had just won a postseason fantasy football pool by loading up on Raiders, so I had gotten into the habit of rooting for them.
2003 (age 32): Patriots over Panthers - I went to a full-fledged Super Bowl party hosted by some people I barely knew, where there were lots of people that I didn't know at all. Generally I wouldn't enjoy watching the big game under those conditions but it worked out well in this case, because my Patriot hatred was at its all-time peak and social norms prevented me from working myself up into an embarrassing frenzy.
2004 (age 33): Patriots over Eagles - I watched this one at JC's house with a small group of people. By this time, the Patriots' performance had actually caught up with their reputation, and Tom Brady and Corey Dillon had been helping my fantasy team for more than a year, so I wasn't as anti-Patriot as I had been in 2001 and 2003. I was rooting for the Eagles, but not so much that I was unable to appreciate a pretty good game.
2005 (age 34): Steelers over Seahawks - My dad, who is not at all a football fan, just happened to be in town visiting on Super Bowl Sunday. We watched the game together and he was kind enough to humor me while I explained to him how annoying the Steelers are. This rather long post details how I became a Seahawk fan for two weeks in early 2006.
2006 (age 35): Colts over Bears - All of my emotional energy was spent on the Patriots/Colts game, so I found myself mostly indifferent towards the Super Bowl. I find Peyton Manning to be pretty irritating, but not nearly as irritating as the people who are constantly dumping on him. And I like Tony Dungy. So I'm glad the Colts won, but it wouldn't have bothered me much if they hadn't.
11 Comments | Posted in History, Rant
Greatest Super Bowl Teams II
Yesterday I posted an objective list of the best and worst Super Bowl teams of all time. Commenter JKL opined that the list might be improved by including some information about the surrounding years.
The 2002 Buccaneers, for instance, ranked #16 on yesterday's list. But nobody really thinks of them as a historically great team, largely because in the surrounding years the Bucs were just good, not great, which causes people to downgrade the Super Bowl win as a bit of a fluke. The 2000 Ravens fall into the same category.
If the Colts win this weekend, they'll be an example of the reverse phenomenon: a team that really did not have a terribly impressive year, but that probably will be looked kindly upon in hindsight because of their consistently excellent play for the last several years.
So here is what I did.
1. For each Super Bowl team, I looked at all three three-consecutive-year stretches that included the Super Bowl year. For example, for the 2002 Bucs, I looked at 2000--2002, 2001--2003, 2002--2004.
2. For each of those three-year periods, I weighted the team's rating (according to the simple rating system) in the Super Bowl year as 50% of their score and their rating in each of the other two years as 25% of their score.
3. I then take the three-year stretch with the highest score.
For the Bucs, their best (weighted) stretch was 2000--2002 and their score breaks down like this:
RNK TM YR Score 3-yr run Yr1 Yr2 Yr3
=======================================================
39. *tam 2002 7.9 2000-2002 5.1 2.5 12.0*
So their ratings were 5.1, 2.5, and 12.0 in 2000 through 2002 respectively. That adds up to a weighted score of 7.9, which ranks them 39th among the 74 post-merger Super Bowl participants. The Super Bowl year is marked with a star.
Note that teams from 1970, 1971, 2005, and 2006 could potentially be at a bit of a disadvantage because they didn't have (or haven't yet had) the chance to complete all three stretches during the years under consideration.
Here is the list:
RNK TM YR Score 3-yr run Yr1 Yr2 Yr3
=======================================================
1. *pit 1975 13.0 1974-1976 8.6 14.2* 15.2
2. *sfo 1989 12.3 1987-1989 10.8 7.9 15.2*
3. *sfo 1994 12.2 1992-1994 11.1 10.6 13.5*
4. *dal 1992 12.1 1992-1994 13.3* 11.2 10.8
5. *mia 1973 12.1 1971-1973 7.6 11.0 14.8*
6. *gnb 1996 11.9 1995-1997 6.8 16.3* 8.2
7. *chi 1985 11.7 1985-1987 18.1* 6.4 4.2
8. *pit 1974 11.6 1974-1976 8.6* 14.2 15.2
9. *dal 1993 11.6 1992-1994 13.3 11.2* 10.8
10. *was 1991 11.4 1990-1992 5.5 17.3* 5.6
11. was 1983 11.2 1982-1984 11.2 13.7* 6.0
12. *mia 1972 11.1 1971-1973 7.6 11.0* 14.8
13. *sfo 1984 11.1 1983-1985 7.9 14.4* 7.5
14. *dal 1995 10.9 1993-1995 11.2 10.8 10.8*
15. *nwe 2004 10.6 2004-2006 13.8* 4.1 10.7
16. *den 1998 10.6 1996-1998 6.7 11.7 11.9*
17. *pit 1978 10.6 1976-1978 15.2 5.4 10.8*
18. *den 1997 10.5 1996-1998 6.7 11.7* 11.9
19. *was 1982 10.5 1982-1984 11.2* 13.7 6.0
20. *pit 1979 10.4 1977-1979 5.4 10.8 12.8*
21. *sfo 1988 10.4 1987-1989 10.8 7.9* 15.2
22. stl 2001 10.3 1999-2001 12.2 2.1 13.6*
23. mia 1971 10.2 1971-1973 7.6* 11.0 14.8
24. *stl 1999 10.0 1999-2001 12.2* 2.1 13.6
25. *dal 1971 9.9 1971-1973 11.5* 4.8 11.7
26. gnb 1997 9.9 1995-1997 6.8 16.3 8.2*
27. *oak 1976 9.7 1975-1977 6.7 11.1* 9.7
28. mia 1984 9.6 1982-1984 10.0 6.8 10.8*
29. mia 1982 9.4 1982-1984 10.0* 6.8 10.8
30. dal 1978 9.1 1976-1978 4.0 10.6 11.0*
31. ind 2006 9.1 2004-2006 11.3 10.3 7.3*
32. *dal 1977 9.0 1976-1978 4.0 10.6* 11.0
33. oak 2002 8.6 2000-2002 9.9 4.1 10.1*
34. *nwe 2003 8.3 2003-2005 7.6* 13.8 4.1
35. min 1973 8.2 1973-1975 9.1* 6.4 8.2
36. min 1976 8.2 1974-1976 6.4 8.2 9.1*
37. den 1977 8.0 1976-1978 7.2 10.6* 3.8
38. buf 1990 8.0 1988-1990 5.4 4.2 11.1*
39. *tam 2002 7.9 2000-2002 5.1 2.5 12.0*
40. *pit 2005 7.8 2004-2006 8.6 10.0* 2.8
41. *rai 1983 7.8 1982-1984 4.6 10.4* 5.9
42. *nyg 1986 7.8 1984-1986 1.2 4.2 12.9*
43. dal 1970 7.8 1970-1972 7.4* 11.5 4.8
44. was 1972 7.8 1972-1974 7.9* 6.5 8.8
45. dal 1975 7.6 1973-1975 11.7 5.3 6.6*
46. min 1974 7.5 1973-1975 9.1 6.4* 8.2
47. phi 1980 7.4 1979-1981 2.3 9.5* 8.0
48. *bal 2000 7.0 1999-2001 1.7 11.7* 2.8
49. *nyg 1990 6.5 1988-1990 2.2 5.6 9.2*
50. buf 1991 6.4 1990-1992 11.1 5.0* 4.6
51. buf 1992 6.3 1990-1992 11.1 5.0 4.6*
52. phi 2004 6.2 2002-2004 7.7 4.1 6.5*
53. *nwe 2001 5.6 2001-2003 5.3* 4.0 7.6
54. nwe 1996 5.1 1996-1998 6.4* 5.5 2.2
55. nwe 1985 5.0 1985-1987 6.1* 5.0 3.0
56. pit 1995 4.9 1994-1996 5.4 4.8* 4.7
57. den 1986 4.9 1984-1986 6.3 3.1 5.0*
58. buf 1993 4.8 1991-1993 5.0 4.6 4.9*
59. *sfo 1981 4.8 1981-1983 7.3* -3.2 7.9
60. cin 1988 4.8 1988-1990 6.4* 6.5 -0.1
61. *oak 1980 4.7 1978-1980 2.0 3.6 6.6*
62. chi 2006 4.6 2005-2007 1.2 8.6* 0.0
63. sea 2005 4.5 2003-2005 3.2 -3.7 9.2*
64. *was 1987 4.3 1985-1987 -2.1 6.6 6.3*
65. den 1987 4.2 1985-1987 3.1 5.0 4.4*
66. ten 1999 4.1 1998-2000 -0.2 3.9* 8.7
67. den 1989 3.7 1989-1991 6.6* -1.6 3.1
68. *bal 1970 3.5 1969-1971 0.0 2.5* 9.0
69. cin 1981 3.3 1981-1983 6.4* 0.3 0.2
70. ram 1979 2.6 1977-1979 7.1 3.4 -0.1*
71. sdg 1994 2.5 1992-1994 1.7 1.9 3.2*
72. car 2003 2.1 2003-2005 1.9* -1.0 5.6
73. atl 1998 1.8 1997-1999 -4.3 9.0* -6.6
74. nyg 2000 1.8 2000-2002 4.4* -1.7 0.1
11 Comments | Posted in General, History
Ranking the historical Super Bowl teams
If not now, when? Everyone else is posting lists of the best and worst Super Bowl teams of all time, so I may as well pile on. This one will be different --- not better --- than most because it's completely objective. This is simply a list of all 74 Super Bowl teams since the merger, ranked according to this simple rating system. So really, I'm not ranking the teams. I'm ranking the teams' distance away from their competitors in the given year.
Recall that, under the simple rating system, the units on Rating are points. So the 1991 Redskins' rating of 17.3 means that they were 17.3 points better than an average 1991 NFL team.
Here is the list, Super Bowl winners are marked with an asterisk. A few observations follow:
TM YR Rating SOS Record
===================================
1. *chi 1985 18.1 0.3 18-1
2. *was 1991 17.3 0.4 17-2
3. *gnb 1996 16.3 0.6 16-3
4. *sfo 1989 15.2 -0.0 17-2
5. *mia 1973 14.8 0.4 15-2
6. *sfo 1984 14.4 -1.6 18-1
7. *pit 1975 14.2 0.1 15-2
8. *nwe 2004 13.8 2.7 17-2
9. was 1983 13.7 1.8 16-3
10. stl 2001 13.6 -0.1 16-3
11. *sfo 1994 13.5 -0.7 16-3
12. *dal 1992 13.3 1.0 16-3
13. *nyg 1986 12.9 1.4 17-2
14. *pit 1979 12.8 2.2 15-4
15. *stl 1999 12.2 -4.1 16-3
16. *tam 2002 12.0 0.5 15-4
17. *den 1998 11.9 -1.5 17-2
18. *den 1997 11.7 0.5 16-4
19. *bal 2000 11.7 -0.3 16-4
20. *dal 1971 11.5 -1.7 14-3
21. *was 1982 11.2 1.6 12-1
22. *dal 1993 11.2 1.1 15-4
23. *oak 1976 11.1 2.2 16-1
24. buf 1990 11.1 -0.6 15-4
25. dal 1978 11.0 0.1 14-5
26. *mia 1972 11.0 -2.6 17-0
27. *pit 1978 10.8 -0.6 17-2
28. mia 1984 10.8 -1.4 16-3
29. *dal 1995 10.8 1.1 15-4
30. *dal 1977 10.6 -1.0 15-2
31. den 1977 10.6 3.2 14-3
32. *rai 1983 10.4 1.1 15-4
33. oak 2002 10.1 1.9 13-6
34. mia 1982 10.0 1.8 10-3
35. *pit 2005 10.0 1.2 15-5
36. phi 1980 9.5 0.4 14-5
37. *nyg 1990 9.2 1.0 16-3
38. sea 2005 9.2 -1.3 15-4
39. min 1973 9.1 1.2 14-3
40. min 1976 9.1 1.0 13-3
41. atl 1998 9.0 1.5 16-3
42. *pit 1974 8.6 -0.5 13-3
43. chi 2006 8.6 -2.5 15-3
44. gnb 1997 8.2 -0.2 15-4
45. was 1972 7.9 -0.8 13-4
46. *sfo 1988 7.9 1.1 13-6
47. *nwe 2003 7.6 1.0 17-2
48. mia 1971 7.6 -0.9 12-4
49. dal 1970 7.4 2.2 12-5
50. ind 2006 7.3 2.3 15-4
51. *sfo 1981 7.3 0.6 16-3
52. dal 1975 6.6 0.1 12-5
53. den 1989 6.6 0.9 13-6
54. *oak 1980 6.6 1.4 15-5
55. phi 2004 6.5 -1.5 15-4
56. min 1974 6.4 -0.9 12-5
57. nwe 1996 6.4 -0.4 13-6
58. cin 1988 6.4 -0.7 14-5
59. cin 1981 6.4 -1.0 14-5
60. *was 1987 6.3 -1.3 14-4
61. nwe 1985 6.1 2.5 14-6
62. *nwe 2001 5.3 -0.6 14-5
63. den 1986 5.0 2.9 13-6
64. buf 1991 5.0 -3.1 15-4
65. buf 1993 4.9 0.0 14-5
66. pit 1995 4.8 -0.1 13-6
67. buf 1992 4.6 -0.7 14-6
68. den 1987 4.4 -0.5 12-5
69. nyg 2000 4.4 -1.2 14-5
70. ten 1999 3.9 -0.6 16-4
71. sdg 1994 3.2 0.2 13-6
72. *bal 1970 2.5 -4.4 14-2
73. car 2003 1.9 -0.8 14-6
74. ram 1979 -0.1 -0.8 11-8
Observations
- As you can see, I put the Bears and Colts in there; they're 43rd and 50th respectively. The winner could conceivably move into top half of the list with a blowout. But regardless, this year's winner will rank among the weaker Super Bowl champs. The loser, on the other hand, will be fairly strong (for a loser).
- Students of the basic mathematics of ranking systems and of AFL/NFL history will know why I have not included the pre-merger Super Bowl teams on the list. Had I included them, the 1969 Chiefs would have been #1, largely on the strength of what the system perceived to be an incredibly difficult schedule. Because all the information we have from that season (one game) indicates that the AFL was better than the NFL (by 16 points!), the system essentially starts from the assumption that the AFL is the much stronger league.
- I was born in 1971. I definitely do not remember the Raiders/Viking Super Bowl of 1976. I definitely do remember the Cowboys and Steelers in 1978. I think I remember the rather forgettable Broncos/Cowboys game in between, but I may be fabricating those memories. Anyway, I had always filed that Bronco team away with the rest of the bumbling Super Bowl losers, but they were a terrific team. They were 14-3 against arguably the toughest schedule of any Super Bowl team in history. They only played four games against teams with losing records. Of their three losses, two were to the eventual champion Cowboys and the other was against the defending champs: an 11-3 Oakland team.
- We all know the 1999 Rams had a weak schedule, but every time I see it it seems to get worse. Here are the regular season win totals of their opponents: 8, 5, 4, 4, 5, 2, 13, 8, 8, 4, 3, 8, 3, 7, 6, 5. And their playoff opponents were very weak (by playoff standards) too.
23 Comments | Posted in General, History
The Schottenheimer Index
In the comments to The Dungy Index, Pat requested a different sort of coaching index. Today we're going to analyze post-season coaching records from another angle, by predicting how many post-season wins a coach or team should have based on their number of regular season victories*.
To start with, we need to break the modern era into three sections. From 1970 to 1977**, the NFL had an eight team playoff field, and a fourteen game schedule. In 1978 the NFL expanded the regular season to 16 games and the post-season tournament to ten teams. In 1982 and 1987, the NFL did not have 16 game regular seasons, so I've omitted the strike seasons from the data***. In 1990, the NFL again expanded the playoff field by two teams, and since then 12 teams have made the playoffs each year. In 2002 the NFL realignment changed the ordering of the playoff teams, but I've decided to ignore that small change for the purpose of this post. The added specificity isn't very probative, and unnecessarily reduces our sample size.
*The normal formula for victories is Wins + (Ties/2), since the NFL counts a tie as half a win. Here, I'm just using actual wins, which essentially equates a tie to a loss. **From 1970 to 1975, the home team was chosen randomly, and not by best record. This should be kept in mind when analyzing those coaching performances. ***Yes, I know Redskins fans have a legitimate beef with this, since I'm erasing two of Joe Gibbs' Super Bowls. My apologies, and I'll address this later.
The Early Years: 1970-1977
RW is the number of regular season wins, PW is the number of playoff wins, #TM is the number of teams that made the playoffs with that number of regular season wins, and AvgPW is the average number of playoff wins for teams with that number of regular season wins.
RW PW #TM AvgPW
8 1 3 0.33
9 3 8 0.38
10 18 27 0.67
11 13 14 0.93
12 15 10 1.50
13 3 1 3.00
14 3 1 3.00
So what coaches exceeded expectations the most? Below is the list of coaches from the early period, with both their actual and expected (based on regular season record) number of wins.
Coach ActW ExpW Diff
Tom Landry 12 6 +6.0
Chuck Noll 8 5 +3.2
Don McCafferty 4 2 +2.4
Don Shula 8 7 +1.2
Dick Nolan 2 1 +0.6
Red Miller 2 2 +0.5
John Madden 8 8 +0.3
Jack Pardee 0 0 -0.4
Lou Saban 0 0 -0.4
Bud Grant 7 7 -0.4
Dan Devine 0 1 -0.7
Hank Stram 0 1 -0.7
Joe Schmidt 0 1 -0.7
Chuck Fairbanks 0 1 -0.9
Nick Skorich 0 1 -1.0
George Allen 2 3 -1.3
Don Coryell 0 2 -1.6
Paul Brown 0 2 -1.9
Chuck Knox 3 5 -2.0
Ted Marchibroda 0 2 -2.3
The Middle Years: 1978-1989
RW PW #TM AvgPW
8 0 2 0.00
9 11 17 0.65
10 13 27 0.48
11 19 23 0.83
12 25 21 1.19
13 3 2 1.50
14 13 6 2.17
15 6 2 3.00
And the coaches:
Coach ActW ExpW Diff
Bill Walsh 10 6 +3.6
Tom Flores 7 4 +3.0
Chuck Noll 8 5 +2.9
Bum Phillips 4 2 +1.9
Raymond Berry 3 2 +1.3
George Seifert 3 2 +0.8
Sam Wyche 2 1 +0.8
Forrest Gregg 2 1 +0.8
Bill Parcells 5 4 +0.5
Bud Carson 1 1 +0.4
Ray Perkins 1 1 +0.4
Ray Malavasi 3 3 +0.3
John Robinson 4 4 +0.3
Chuck Knox 4 4 +0.2
Dan Reeves 4 4 +0.2
Jerry Glanville 1 1 -0.1
John McKay 1 1 -0.1
Dick Vermeil 3 3 -0.1
Joe Gibbs 4 4 -0.2
Joe Walton 1 1 -0.3
Jerry Burns 1 1 -0.3
John Mackovic 0 0 -0.5
Walt Michaels 0 0 -0.5
Neill Armstrong 0 0 -0.5
Don Coryell 2 2 -0.5
Monte Clark 0 1 -0.6
Bud Grant 0 1 -0.6
Marty Schottenheimer 1 2 -0.7
Sam Rutigliano 0 1 -0.8
Bullough/Erhardt 0 1 -0.8
Marv Levy 1 2 -0.8
Leeman Bennett 1 2 -0.8
Red Miller 0 1 -1.0
Tom Landry 5 6 -1.1
Buddy Ryan 0 1 -1.3
Mike Ditka 5 7 -1.8
Don Shula 3 7 -3.7
The Later Years: 1990-2006
RW PW #TM AvgPW
8 2 7 0.29
9 15 34 0.44
10 26 51 0.51
11 45 43 1.05
12 44.5 33 1.35
13 33.5 23 1.46
14 19 11 1.73
15 2 2 1.00
Note: The Colts and Bears have each been given a half win for their Super Bowl berth.
How do the most recent coaches look?
Coach ActW ExpW Diff
Bill Belichick 13 7 +5.6
Jimmy Johnson 9 5 +3.8
Marv Levy 10 6 +3.7
John Fox 5 2 +2.9
Mike Holmgren 12 9 +2.8
Joe Gibbs 6 3 +2.8
Bill Cowher 12 9 +2.5
Barry Switzer 5 3 +1.8
Ted Marchibroda 2 0 +1.6
Andy Reid 8 7 +1.2
Brian Billick 5 4 +1.2
Bill Callahan 2 1 +1.0
Jon Gruden 5 4 +0.7
Mike Tice 1 0 +0.7
Bill Parcells 6 5 +0.7
Vince Tobin 1 0 +0.6
Sam Wyche 1 0 +0.6
Sean Payton 1 1 +0.5
Jim Haslett 1 1 +0.5
Norv Turner 1 1 +0.5
Jerry Glanville 1 1 +0.5
Dan Reeves 5 5 +0.4
Herman Edwards 2 2 +0.1
Dick Vermeil 3 3 +0.1
Pete Carroll 1 1 0.0
Lovie Smith 2.5 3 0.0
Ray Rhodes 1 1 0.0
Jim Mora Jr. 1 1 0.0
Rich Kotite 1 1 0.0
Mike Shanahan 8 8 -0.1
Bobby Ross 3 3 -0.3
Bruce Coslet 0 0 -0.3
Tony Dungy 8.5 9 -0.3
Art Shell 2 2 -0.3
Jeff Fisher 5 5 -0.3
Don Shula 3 3 -0.3
Dom Capers 1 1 -0.3
Jim Fassel 2 2 -0.4
Butch Davis 0 0 -0.4
Lindy Infante 0 0 -0.4
June Jones 0 0 -0.4
Eric Mangini 0 1 -0.5
Buddy Ryan 0 1 -0.5
Dave Wannstedt 2 3 -0.5
Chan Gailey 0 1 -0.8
George Seifert 7 8 -0.8
Mike Martz 3 4 -0.9
Marvin Lewis 0 1 -1.0
Mike Ditka 1 2 -1.1
Jack Del Rio 0 1 -1.3
Dennis Green 4 5 -1.4
Dick Jauron 0 1 -1.5
Tom Coughlin 4 6 -1.6
Steve Mariucci 3 5 -1.7
Mike Sherman 2 4 -1.7
Wayne Fontes 1 3 -1.8
Wade Phillips 0 2 -2.0
Jack Pardee 1 3 -2.3
Jim Mora 0 5 -4.6
Marty Schottenheimer 3 10 -6.5
Now, several coaches span the three eras, so we need to compile a career list. To avoid staring at 100 coaches, only coaches with at least 4 expected playoff wins are included:
Coach ActW ExpW Diff
Chuck Noll 16 10 +6.1
Bill Belichick 13 7 +5.6
Tom Landry 17 12 +4.9
Jimmy Johnson 9 5 +3.8
Bill Walsh 10 6 +3.6
Tom Flores 7 4 +3.0
Marv Levy 11 8 +2.8
Mike Holmgren 12 9 +2.8
Joe Gibbs 10 7 +2.6
Bill Cowher 12 9 +2.5
Andy Reid 8 7 +1.2
Bill Parcells 11 10 +1.2
Jon Gruden 5 4 +0.7
Dan Reeves 9 8 +0.6
John Madden 8 8 +0.3
George Seifert 10 10 0.0
Mike Shanahan 8 8 -0.1
Dick Vermeil 6 6 -0.1
Tony Dungy 8.5 9 -0.3
Jeff Fisher 5 5 -0.3
Bud Grant 7 8 -1.0
Dennis Green 4 5 -1.4
Tom Coughlin 4 6 -1.6
Steve Mariucci 3 5 -1.7
Chuck Knox 7 9 -1.8
Don Coryell 2 4 -2.1
Don Shula 14 17 -2.8
Mike Ditka 6 9 -2.9
Jim Mora 0 5 -4.6
Marty Schottenheimer 4 11 -7.2
Now let me try and appease our Joe Gibbs fans. The 1982 Redskins went 8-1, which is close to 14-2. So we might want to give him 2.17 expected wins in 1982, except there was an additional round of the playoffs that year. That extra game was against the 4-5 Detroit Lions, so I don't want to give Gibbs too much credit here. Let's give him 3 expected wins with an 8-1 Redskins team, and since he won four playoff games that year, he should have one extra win in the "Diff" column.
The 1987 Redskins went 11-4, but won all three games with replacement players. We should probably put them at 8-4, which we'll make equivalent to 0.71 expected wins. Since Gibbs won three games, that's an extra 2.3 wins for him. So while Gibbs is listed at +2.6, it's probably fairer to place him at 5.9, which is right behind Chuck Noll for tops on the list.
General Thoughts
One problem here is sample size. Only two teams in the middle era made the playoffs with 8 wins, and neither won a game. Only two teams in the early era won thirteen or more games, and both won the Super Bowl. So John Madden and Don Shula get no credit for winning a Super Bowl since they were the only teams with those number of wins in the era, while Marty Schottenheimer and Bud Grant catch a break since the other coach also lost his playoff game with 8 wins. Note: this may be the only time I've ever seen it written that Schottenheimer or Grant caught a break.
Still, the data only has two real blips, when teams with more regular season wins are expected to have fewer post-season wins than teams with fewer regular season wins. Teams with ten wins in the middle years didn't fare very well, and to the extent that a coach had several ten win seasons over that period, he's probably not punished enough for his post-season losses (and he's overcompensated for his post-season wins). The other blip is in the recent era, where only two teams had fifteen wins, and both teams went one and done. Based on the expected wins trend for 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 win teams, I think we'd be better off expecting 2.00 wins from teams that win 15 games than 1.00 wins. So you might want to subtract one win in the "Diff" column from Dennis Green and Bill Cowher.
If you do that, you might notice that before last year, Bill Cowher would have 1.5 fewer actual post-season wins than we'd expect. Of course, last year he won four games in the post-season en route to a Super Bowl victory. That's not very surprising, though, because I don't think there's much value to any of the above data. Playoff numbers are overvalued, because the results mean so much more to fans, and the sample sizes are incredibly small. As a result, grandiose statements that aren't statistically significant, are made. I don't believe Bill Cowher changed anything in going from a "bad" post-season coach to tying the (Joe Gibbs) record for most post-season wins in 2005.
Which brings me to my last point. In addition to thinking the data doesn't have much predictive value, I'm not sure it has any value at all. We might look at Marty Schottenheimer's -7.2 rating and conclude that he's a much better regular season coach than playoff coach. We could say that Chuck Noll was a much better playoff coach than regular season coach, as evidenced by his +6.1 rating. And the data would support that. But we could just as strongly argue that Marty Schottenheimer gets the most out of average players in the regular season, but in the playoffs, coaching talent is much less important than player talent. Conversely, one could state that Chuck Noll couldn't reach his players, was a terrible coach, but because of how talented his team was, they always won in the post-season.
You might like the former theory better than the latter, but let's be clear: the data equally support both theories. To suggest that coaching ability matters more than player ability in the playoffs, or vice versa, is purely speculative, and not proven by anything presented here.
19 Comments | Posted in General, History
The Dungy Index updated
Same as yesterday, but this time with coaches instead of quarterbacks. Includes all coaches who debuted in 1970 or later and have coached in at least 10 postseason games.
Player Expected Actual DIFF
==========================================
Bill Belichick 8- 8 13- 3 +4.9
Joe Gibbs 13-10 17- 6 +3.7
Chuck Noll 12-12 16- 8 +3.9
Jimmy Johnson 6- 7 9- 4 +2.8
Bill Walsh 8- 6 10- 4 +2.1
Tom Flores 7- 4 8- 3 +1.5
Bill Parcells 9-10 11- 8 +1.6
John Robinson 3- 7 4- 6 +0.7
Dan Reeves 10-10 11- 9 +0.8
Mike Shanahan 7- 6 8- 5 +0.7
Bill Cowher 11-10 12- 9 +0.5
Mike Holmgren 12-10 12-10 +0.4
Marv Levy 11- 8 11- 8 +0.3
Tony Dungy 8- 8 8- 8 +0.2
George Seifert 10- 5 10- 5 -0.2
Andy Reid 8- 6 8- 6 -0.2
Tom Coughlin 5- 5 4- 6 -0.5
Chuck Knox 8-10 7-11 -1.0
Dick Vermeil 7- 4 6- 5 -1.0
Mike Ditka 7- 5 6- 6 -1.5
Dennis Green 6- 6 4- 8 -2.0
Marty Schottenheimer 9- 9 5-13 -4.5
In the span of five weeks last year, Bill Cowher turned from A Coach Who Can't Win The Big One to unquestionably one of the best coaches of his generation. I don't have inside knowledge, but I can only assume that happened because he radically changed everything about the way he coached. I mean, what else could possibly explain how a Coach Who Can't Win The Big One could win the big one?
As of right now, it appears that Tony Dungy might have completely and totally changed his coaching style and philosophy too, but we can't be sure about that until next Sunday.
6 Comments | Posted in General, History
Manning index updated
I originally posted this two years ago this week and now seems like a good time for an update.
The idea is to put every quarterback's postseason record into something approximating an appropriate context. If a QB takes his 9-7 team on the road and loses to a 13-3 team, that doesn't count against him much --- nor does it count too much for the opposing quarterback --- because the 9-7 team has no business winning that game anyway.
In the original article, I wrote this, and it's no less relevant now:
Just to be clear, I believe that teams — not quarterbacks — win football games, so I’m not claiming this is the One True Measure Of Clutchness. Whether I like it or not though, wins are credited to quarterbacks in virtually every discussion about quarterback greatness. This is merely a way of putting a quarterback’s win-loss record into perspective.
The extent to which a team should be expected to win is given by this formula, which was the result of a regression:
Probability of winning = (1 + exp(-.43(windiff)-.24(homefield)))^(-1)
where windiff = the given team’s regular season wins minus its opponents’ regular season wins (actually, it's the regular season winning percentage differences multiplied by 16) and homefield = 1 if home, -1 if road, 0 if neutral site.
In the original article, I only considered quarterbacks who debuted in 1978 or later. My postseason database now goes back a little further, so I'll include all quarterbacks who debuted in 1972 or later and played in at least eight postseason games (and I'll throw in Terry Bradshaw, all of whose postseason appearances happened in 1972 or later). The quarterbacks are ranked by (an approximation of) the probability that an average quarterback would compile the given record (or better) by random chance.
Coach Expected Actual DIFF
===============================================
Tom Brady 7- 7 12- 2 +4.9
Terry Bradshaw 11- 8 14- 5 +3.1
Mark Rypien 3- 5 5- 3 +1.6
Joe Montana 14- 9 16- 7 +2.3
Troy Aikman 9- 7 11- 5 +1.8
John Elway 12-10 14- 8 +1.8
Phil Simms 5- 5 6- 4 +0.6
Brett Favre 10-10 11- 9 +0.8
Mark Brunell 4- 6 4- 6 +0.5
Rich Gannon 4- 4 4- 4 +0.1
Donovan McNabb 7- 5 7- 5 +0.0
Danny White 6- 5 6- 5 -0.2
Jim Kelly 9- 7 9- 7 -0.3
Steve McNair 5- 5 5- 5 -0.3
Peyton Manning 6- 6 6- 6 -0.3
Dave Krieg 3- 6 3- 6 -0.4
Joe Theismann 7- 1 6- 2 -0.6
Steve Young 9- 5 8- 6 -1.1
Dan Marino 9- 9 8-10 -1.4
Randall Cunningham 4- 6 3- 7 -1.2
Ron Jaworski 6- 3 4- 5 -1.7
Warren Moon 5- 5 3- 7 -1.9
[NOTE: records are rounded because records just don't look right if not rounded.]
Because they necessarily include at least three wins, Super Bowl titles are rewarded heavily in this system. But it's interesting to compare the quarterbacks with three or more rings. Brady ranks far ahead of Aikman, Bradshaw, and Montana because more often than not, those three were playing in games they should have been expected to win. If Tom Brady's teams are 14-2 and lose their first playoff game at home to a 9-7 team in each of the next two seasons, he'll probably still be at the top of this list. [Technical note: I've counted a QB as having played a game if he had 10 or more passing attempts. This gives full credit to Brady (and to Bledsoe) for the AFC Championship game win over Pittsburgh in 2001. If you don't think that's appropriate, subtract some portion of the .75 wins above expected that this system gives Brady credit for.]
Meanwhile Peyton Manning can climb into the positive numbers for the first time in his career with a win over the Bears next Sunday.
17 Comments | Posted in General, History
Romeo Crennel
To say that I don't follow the Browns closely would be an understatement. But I do have a good friend who is a Browns' fan and he assures me that, despite the 10-22 record, he and his colleagues are not displeased with the work Romeo Crennel has done and is doing. This squares with the feeling I get from the national media.
It seems to me that all coaches (except Art Shell) get one free year to be as bad as they want with no consequence. But most coaches start to feel the heat if they don't at least show some improvement in their second year.
Take a look at this. It's all coaches who debuted in 1990 or later and won 12/32 or fewer of their games in their first two seasons:
Coach Debut First 2 Since
=================================================
Norv Turner 1994 9-23-0 49- 59- 1
Dick Jauron 1999 11-21-0 32- 37- 0
Vince Tobin 1996 11-21-0 17- 22- 0
Joe Bugel 1990 9-23-0 15- 33- 0
David Shula 1992 8-24-0 11- 28- 0
Dave McGinnis 2000 13-28-0 4- 12- 0
Gregg Williams 2001 11-21-0 6- 10- 0
Dave Campo 2000 10-22-0 5- 11- 0
Mike Riley 1999 9-23-0 5- 11- 0
Steve Spurrier 2002 12-20-0 0- 0- 0
Dick LeBeau 2000 12-33-0 0- 0- 0
Dick McPherson 1991 8-24-0 0- 0- 0
Chris Palmer 1999 5-27-0 0- 0- 0
Marty Mornhinweg 2001 5-27-0 0- 0- 0
Mike Nolan 2005 11-21-0 0- 0- 0
Romeo Crennel 2005 10-22-0 0- 0- 0
Crennel's fate is not pre-determined, of course, but it's pretty grim when your best historical comps are Dick Jauron and Norv Turner.
But wait. I was cheating. If you take it back just one more year, you get one of my favorite coaches of all time:
Coach Debut First 2 Since
=================================================
Jimmy Johnson 1989 8-24-0 72- 40- 0
Johnson's first two years, though, were much different from Crennel's. Johnson gutted the team and suffered through a 1-15 rookie campaign, but he improved to 7-9 in his second year. And Johnson is the only coach who debuted in the 80s and might make the list look more promising for Crennel.
But look at this list of guys who debuted in the 70s, started off horribly, and went on to have very successful careers:
Coach Debut First 2 Since
=================================================
Marv Levy 1978 11-21-0 132- 91- 0
Dick Vermeil 1976 9-19-0 111- 90- 0
Bill Walsh 1979 8-24-0 84- 35- 1
And if you go back further than that, you get Tom Landry (4-20-2 in his first two years) and Chuck Noll (6-22).
This post isn't about Romeo Crennel anymore. I'm not sure what it's about. But here's what we've learned.
- Exactly one coach in the last 25ish years has suffered through a Crennel-like first two years and then gone on to have a successful coaching career.
- Back in the 70s and before, several coaches did it.
Why the change? The main possibilities are:
1. There hasn't been a change. The data is just a little bit flukish. Supporters of this explanation could cite, among other things, the fact that Bill Belichick barely missed the cutoff for inclusion, winning 13 of his first 32 games. Also, of course, the careers of the coaches debuting in the 90s have yet to be completed. That list might look a lot different 20 years from now.
2. Coaches are on a shorter leash now. If his coaching career began in today's NFL, Tom Landry probably would not have ever had the chance to become Tom Landry. Under this theory, it's likely that Dave McGinnis, Mike Riley, Chris Palmer, or someone of that ilk is a Hall of Fame coach who will never get the chance to show it.
For your enjoyment, here are all coaches debuting since 1950 who won 12/32 or fewer of their games during their first two years:
Coach Debut First 2 Since
=================================================
Tom Landry 1960 9-28-3 241-134- 3
Chuck Noll 1969 12-30-0 181-118- 1
Marv Levy 1978 11-21-0 132- 91- 0
Weeb Ewbank 1954 8-15-1 122-114- 6
Dick Vermeil 1976 9-19-0 111- 90- 0
Bill Walsh 1979 8-24-0 84- 35- 1
Jimmy Johnson 1989 8-24-0 72- 40- 0
Norm VanBrocklin 1961 5-22-1 61- 78- 6
Joe Kuharich 1952 7-17-0 51- 64- 3
Norv Turner 1994 9-23-0 49- 59- 1
Bart Starr 1975 9-19-0 43- 57- 3
John McKay 1976 2-26-0 42- 62- 1
Dick Jauron 1999 11-21-0 32- 37- 0
Ray Perkins 1979 10-22-0 32- 53- 0
Jim Hanifan 1980 12-20-0 27- 33- 1
Walt Michaels 1977 11-19-0 28- 28- 1
Dan Henning 1983 11-21-0 27- 52- 1
Jack Patera 1976 7-21-0 28- 38- 0
Marion Campbell 1974 11-30-0 23- 50- 1
Pop Ivy 1958 15-31-2 17- 11- 0
Vince Tobin 1996 11-21-0 17- 22- 0
Jack Christiansen 1963 13-25-1 13- 13- 2
Joe Bugel 1990 9-23-0 15- 33- 0
Gene Stallings 1986 11-19-1 12- 15- 0
Bill McPeak 1961 6-19-3 15- 27- 0
Harland Svare 1962 10-21-3 11- 27- 2
Jim Dooley 1968 20-36-0 0- 0- 0
David Shula 1992 8-24-0 11- 28- 0
Darryl Rogers 1985 12-20-0 6- 20- 0
Bill Austin 1966 11-28-3 6- 8- 0
Dave McGinnis 2000 13-28-0 4- 12- 0
Gregg Williams 2001 11-21-0 6- 10- 0
Dave Campo 2000 10-22-0 5- 11- 0
Gene Ronzani 1950 6-18-0 8- 13- 1
Mike Riley 1999 9-23-0 5- 11- 0
Steve Spurrier 2002 12-20-0 0- 0- 0
Dick LeBeau 2000 12-33-0 0- 0- 0
Norman Strader 1950 8-14-2 4- 8- 0
Frank Kush 1982 11-28-1 0- 0- 0
John North 1973 11-23-0 0- 0- 0
Paul Wiggin 1975 11-24-0 0- 0- 0
Mike Nolan 2005 11-21-0 0- 0- 0
Abe Gibron 1972 7-20-1 4- 10- 0
Romeo Crennel 2005 10-22-0 0- 0- 0
Kay Stephenson 1983 10-26-0 0- 0- 0
Jack Faulkner 1962 9-22-1 0- 0- 0
Ed Biles 1981 8-23-0 0- 0- 0
Dick McPherson 1991 8-24-0 0- 0- 0
Frank Ganz 1987 8-22-1 0- 0- 0
Bob Hollway 1971 8-18-2 0- 0- 0
Bill Arnsparger 1974 7-28-0 0- 0- 0
Frank Filchock 1960 7-20-1 0- 0- 0
J.D. Roberts 1970 7-25-3 0- 0- 0
Hugh Devore 1953 7-18-1 0- 0- 0
Mike Nixon 1959 6-30-2 0- 0- 0
Chris Palmer 1999 5-27-0 0- 0- 0
Marty Mornhinweg 2001 5-27-0 0- 0- 0
Norb Hecker 1966 4-26-1 0- 0- 0
8 Comments | Posted in General, History
Teams pass more than they used to
I was perusing some old playoff box scores this weekend and was struck by a few things. First, check out the 1972 and 1973 Miami Dolphins. They won the Super Bowl both years, winning six playoff games in the process. Here are the Dolphin quarterbacks' stat lines from those six games:
OPP QB(s) CM AT YD TD IN
=============================================
1972 cle Morrall 6 13 88 0 0
pit Griese/Morrall 10 16 121 1 1
was Griese 8 11 88 1 1
1973 cin Griese 11 18 159 2 1
oak Griese 3 6 34 0 1
min Griese 6 7 73 0 0
=============================================
44 71 543 4 4
The Dolphins were extreme, but they weren't alone. Terry Bradshaw had games with 13, 14, and 17 pass attempts. Kenny Stabler was below 20 pass attempts a few times as well.
It's one thing to know, in some vague sense, that teams pass more now than they used to, but I didn't quite realize the magnitude of the difference until I looked at those old box scores. Below you'll find a table showing the average stat lines of winning quarterbacks and losing quarterbacks in postseason games since 1972.
=== Winning QBs === === Losing QBs ====
Year CM AT YD TD IN CM AT YD TD IN
=====+===================+===================+
1972 | 11 20 148 1.3 0.7 | 11 24 125 0.3 2.1 |
1973 | 10 16 135 1.0 0.9 | 13 24 139 0.6 1.7 |
1974 | 11 21 153 1.6 1.0 | 13 28 180 0.9 1.7 |
1975 | 14 23 204 1.7 1.0 | 15 29 189 1.0 2.0 |
1976 | 13 23 182 1.4 0.9 | 16 34 197 1.0 1.9 |
1977 | 12 22 182 1.4 0.7 | 14 30 155 0.7 2.3 |
1978 | 15 27 234 2.1 1.2 | 14 30 167 0.9 2.4 |
1979 | 13 23 193 1.6 1.2 | 16 32 188 0.6 1.6 |
1980 | 15 29 216 1.7 1.3 | 16 35 229 0.9 2.6 |
1981 | 18 28 227 2.0 1.1 | 19 34 254 1.8 2.1 |
1982 | 18 28 237 1.7 1.1 | 18 35 240 1.1 2.3 |
1983 | 16 26 213 1.4 0.6 | 21 38 237 1.3 2.7 |
1984 | 18 29 249 2.0 0.9 | 19 34 215 0.9 1.4 |
1985 | 13 23 164 1.2 0.3 | 17 36 183 0.8 1.7 |
1986 | 17 30 214 1.9 0.7 | 17 33 205 0.9 1.4 |
1987 | 16 29 246 2.2 0.8 | 19 38 241 1.4 2.1 |
1988 | 15 25 213 1.3 1.1 | 19 39 236 0.8 1.9 |
1989 | 20 31 269 2.4 0.4 | 21 40 244 0.9 1.8 |
1990 | 16 26 214 1.7 0.5 | 17 34 217 0.8 1.7 |
1991 | 17 28 228 1.6 1.0 | 21 37 228 0.9 2.6 |
1992 | 18 28 219 2.1 0.5 | 20 37 236 0.8 2.3 |
1993 | 20 30 241 1.8 0.5 | 24 41 271 1.2 1.2 |
1994 | 19 30 241 1.9 0.5 | 25 46 274 1.4 1.5 |
1995 | 18 29 221 1.6 0.7 | 24 46 280 1.6 2.6 |
1996 | 16 26 189 1.1 0.9 | 19 37 192 0.9 2.1 |
1997 | 15 28 184 0.8 0.6 | 20 38 228 0.8 1.2 |
1998 | 18 32 228 1.5 0.8 | 22 40 255 1.0 2.0 |
1999 | 17 30 216 1.7 0.9 | 19 37 216 0.7 1.2 |
2000 | 15 25 196 1.7 0.7 | 20 38 194 0.6 2.0 |
2001 | 20 31 219 1.4 0.5 | 21 35 210 0.8 2.2 |
2002 | 22 35 262 2.1 0.8 | 22 41 254 1.3 1.8 |
2003 | 21 32 262 1.8 0.5 | 20 36 231 0.9 1.7 |
2004 | 19 29 241 2.2 0.4 | 23 37 265 1.4 1.7 |
2005 | 15 25 194 1.6 0.5 | 20 37 234 0.7 1.5 |
2006 | 21 36 234 1.2 1.2 | 18 33 218 1.0 1.0 |
Note that, mostly because of the last two Patriots games, 2006 is an anomaly: (pending the Super Bowl) it's the most passes ever attempted by the winning playoff teams, and it's the first time the winning QBs have attempted more passes on average than the losing QBs. Also, it's the worst touchdown-to-interception rate since at least 1972 for winners and the best for losers.
A strange (almost) ending to a strange year.
23 Comments | Posted in General, History
Playoff trivia
This will be the second postseason meeting between the Saints and Bears; the first was a 1990 wildcard matchup won by the Bears. It will be the third meeting between the Colts and Patriots in the postseason; you're probably familar with the first two. Inspired by this post, I decided to see which franchises have matched up with each other most often the playoffs.
There are two pairs of franchises that have met 8 times in the playoffs. Who are they? There are five more who have met 7 times. Who are they?
I'll post answers sometime tomorrow or Sunday morning.
[Fine print: my database is complete back to the beginning of the NFL on playoff game scores, but there is some confusion (to me) about which games are officially counted as postseason games. The main issue is the third-place game that they used to play back in the day. I am counting those, although I'm fairly sure that failing to do so would only change one of the seven pairs above.]
Answers: Eight meetings: Giants/Bears and Cowboys/Rams. Seven meetings: Vikings/Rams, Giants/49ers, Bears/Redskins, Cowboys/49ers, Cowboys/Vikings (that counts one third-place game).
12 Comments | Posted in General, History
0 for 3
The quarterback Petyon Manning is most often compared to is Dan Marino. This Sunday, Manning is hoping to avoid joining a club whose membership includes Marino and another future Hall of Famer: Brett Favre. Oh yeah, Bernie Kosar too.
Marino's, Favre's, and Kosar's teams all lost three playoff games to the same team led by the same quarterback. Favre's Packers lost three times in four years to a Cowboy team led by Troy Aikman (a quarterback who is often compared to Tom Brady). Marino's Dolphins lost to Jim Kelly and the Bills three times between 1990 and 1995. Kosar's Browns lost three championship games in four years against John Elway-quarterbacked Denver teams.
My individual playoff game database only goes back to 1975, so this is an incomplete list, but here is a list of pairs of quarterbacks who have faced each other more than once (since 1975) in the playoffs. In each case, the quarterbacks are listed alphabetically and the games are listed home-team-last.
Jim Kelly vs Dan Marino (3)
1990 d: mia 34, buf 44
1992 c: buf 29, mia 10
1995 w: mia 22, buf 37Brett Favre vs Steve Young (3)
1995 d: gnb 27, sfo 17
1997 c: gnb 23, sfo 10
1998 w: gnb 27, sfo 30John Elway vs Bernie Kosar (3)
1986 c: den 23, cle 20
1987 c: cle 33, den 38
1989 c: cle 21, den 37Troy Aikman vs Brett Favre (3)
1993 d: gnb 17, dal 27
1994 d: gnb 9, dal 35
1995 c: gnb 27, dal 38Troy Aikman vs Steve Young (3)
1992 c: dal 30, sfo 20
1993 c: sfo 21, dal 38
1994 c: dal 28, sfo 38Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning (2)
2003 c: ind 14, nwe 24
2004 d: ind 3, nwe 20Joe Montana vs Phil Simms (2)
1984 d: nyg 10, sfo 21
1985 w: sfo 3, nyg 17Peyton Manning vs Jake Plummer (2)
2003 w: den 10, ind 41
2004 w: den 24, ind 49Drew Bledsoe vs Kordell Stewart (2)
1997 d: nwe 6, pit 7
2001 c: nwe 24, pit 17Jeff Kemp vs Phil Simms (2)
1984 w: nyg 16, ram 13
1986 d: sfo 3, nyg 49Donovan McNabb vs Michael Vick (2)
2002 d: atl 6, phi 20
2004 c: atl 10, phi 27Terry Bradshaw vs Roger Staubach (2)
1975 s: pit 21, dal 17
1978 s: pit 35, dal 31Jeff Hostetler vs Jim Kelly (2)
1990 s: nyg 20, buf 19
1993 d: rai 23, buf 29Steve Bartkowski vs Danny White (2)
1978 d: atl 20, dal 27
1980 d: dal 30, atl 27Dan Marino vs Joe Montana (2)
1984 s: sfo 38, mia 16
1994 w: kan 17, mia 27John Elway vs Warren Moon (2)
1987 d: hou 10, den 34
1991 d: hou 24, den 26Troy Aikman vs Randall Cunningham (2)
1992 d: phi 10, dal 34
1995 d: phi 11, dal 30Peyton Manning vs Steve McNair (2)
1999 d: ten 19, ind 16
2006 d: ind 15, bal 6Pat Haden vs Fran Tarkenton (2)
1976 c: ram 13, min 24
1978 d: min 10, ram 34Terry Bradshaw vs Ken Stabler (2)
1975 c: oak 10, pit 16
1976 c: pit 7, oak 24Danny White vs Doug Williams (2)
1981 d: tam 0, dal 38
1982 w: tam 17, dal 30Pat Haden vs Roger Staubach (2)
1976 d: ram 14, dal 12
1978 c: dal 28, ram 0Stan Humphries vs Dan Marino (2)
1992 d: sdg 0, mia 31
1994 d: mia 21, sdg 22Trent Green vs Peyton Manning (2)
2003 d: ind 38, kan 31
2006 w: kan 8, ind 23Dave Krieg vs Dan Marino (2)
1983 d: sea 27, mia 20
1984 d: sea 10, mia 31Terry Bradshaw vs Dan Pastorini (2)
1978 c: hou 5, pit 34
1979 c: hou 13, pit 27Jim McMahon vs Phil Simms (2)
1985 d: nyg 0, chi 21
1993 w: min 10, nyg 17Brad Johnson vs Donovan McNabb (2)
2001 w: tam 9, phi 31
2002 c: tam 27, phi 10Joe Montana vs Wade Wilson (2)
1987 d: min 36, sfo 24
1988 d: min 9, sfo 34Vince Ferragamo vs Danny White (2)
1980 w: ram 13, dal 34
1983 w: ram 24, dal 17Mark Brunell vs John Elway (2)
1996 d: jax 30, den 27
1997 w: jax 17, den 42
My coaching database is much more complete than the playoff game database, but isn't 100% complete. I may be missing some guys from pre-1950, but here is a list of all pairs of coaches who have faced each other three or more times. A quick scan reveals that the company Tony Dungy is hoping to avoid consists of George Allen (who lost three times to Bud Grant), Dick Nolan (who lost in three straight years to Tom Landry), Don Shula (0-3 against Marv Levy), Marty Schottenheimer (0-3 against Don Shula), and Chuck Knox (0-3 against Bud Grant). Is anyone else surprised that Chuck Noll and Don Shula only faced each other three times in the playoffs?
Bud Grant vs Tom Landry (5)
1968 p: dal 17, min 13
1971 d: dal 20, min 12
1973 c: min 27, dal 10
1975 d: dal 17, min 14
1977 c: min 6, dal 23John Madden vs Chuck Noll (5)
1972 d: oak 7, pit 13
1973 d: pit 14, oak 33
1974 c: pit 24, oak 13
1975 c: oak 10, pit 16
1976 c: pit 7, oak 24George Halas vs Steve Owen (4)
1933 c: nyg 21, chi 23
1934 c: nyg 30, chi 13
1941 c: nyg 9, chi 37
1946 c: chi 24, nyg 14George Allen vs Bud Grant (3)
1969 d: ram 20, min 23
1973 d: was 20, min 27
1976 d: was 20, min 35Tom Landry vs Dick Nolan (3)
1970 c: dal 17, sfo 10
1971 c: sfo 3, dal 14
1972 d: dal 30, sfo 28John Madden vs Don Shula (3)
1970 d: mia 14, oak 21
1973 c: oak 10, mia 27
1974 d: mia 26, oak 28Paul Brown vs Raymond Parker (3)
1952 c: det 17, cle 7
1953 c: cle 16, det 17
1954 c: det 10, cle 56Tom Landry vs Ray Malavasi (3)
1978 c: dal 28, ram 0
1979 d: ram 21, dal 19
1980 w: ram 13, dal 34Chuck Noll vs Don Shula (3)
1972 c: mia 21, pit 17
1979 d: mia 14, pit 34
1984 c: pit 28, mia 45Bill Belichick vs Bill Cowher (3)
1994 d: cle 9, pit 29
2001 c: nwe 24, pit 17
2004 c: nwe 41, pit 27Marv Levy vs Don Shula (3)
1990 d: mia 34, buf 44
1992 c: buf 29, mia 10
1995 w: mia 22, buf 37Curly Lambeau vs Steve Owen (3)
1938 c: gnb 17, nyg 23
1939 c: nyg 0, gnb 27
1944 c: gnb 14, nyg 7Bill Parcells vs Bill Walsh (3)
1984 d: nyg 10, sfo 21
1985 w: sfo 3, nyg 17
1986 d: sfo 3, nyg 49Marty Schottenheimer vs Don Shula (3)
1985 d: cle 21, mia 24
1990 w: kan 16, mia 17
1994 w: kan 17, mia 27
Bud Grant vs Chuck Knox (3)
1974 c: ram 10, min 14
1976 c: ram 13, min 24
1977 d: min 14, ram 7Blanton Collier vs Tom Landry (3)
1967 d: cle 14, dal 52
1968 d: dal 20, cle 31
1969 d: cle 38, dal 14Mike Ditka vs Joe Gibbs (3)
1984 d: chi 23, was 19
1986 d: was 27, chi 13
1987 d: was 21, chi 17Chuck Knox vs Tom Landry (3)
1973 d: ram 16, dal 27
1975 c: dal 37, ram 7
1976 d: ram 14, dal 12
5 Comments | Posted in General, History
