Comments for Pro-football-reference.com blog http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog football, statistics, and football statistics (and other stuff) Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:03:19 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 Comment on Gary Kubiak and Coaching Scared by curtis http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815&cpage=1#comment-101555 curtis Sun, 29 Nov 2009 17:03:19 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815#comment-101555 I have to agree with your observation on centering the ball--it just doesn't make sense in the NFL with the narrow hashmarks. However I don't think the 3-degree change in direction (from head on) is the relevant factor as I assume that the kickers take this into account. The angular accuracy of kicking a 49 yard field goal from the hashmark to the center changes from 6.98 degrees to 7.00 degrees (assuming no loss of yardage). Centering thus improves your attempt by about 0.3% (roughly). However, losing a yard in the centering of the ball requires an angular accuracy of 6.87 degrees--meaning you've decreased the probibility of making the field goal by about 1.6% (again roughly). If Kubiak didn't want to take any chances, he should have simply kicked the ball instead of running another play. I have to agree with your observation on centering the ball--it just doesn't make sense in the NFL with the narrow hashmarks. However I don't think the 3-degree change in direction (from head on) is the relevant factor as I assume that the kickers take this into account. The angular accuracy of kicking a 49 yard field goal from the hashmark to the center changes from 6.98 degrees to 7.00 degrees (assuming no loss of yardage). Centering thus improves your attempt by about 0.3% (roughly). However, losing a yard in the centering of the ball requires an angular accuracy of 6.87 degrees--meaning you've decreased the probibility of making the field goal by about 1.6% (again roughly). If Kubiak didn't want to take any chances, he should have simply kicked the ball instead of running another play.

]]> Comment on Pro Bowl Punters by chase rathbone http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=563&cpage=1#comment-101548 chase rathbone Sat, 28 Nov 2009 21:52:45 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=563#comment-101548 Ive got a Question im doing a science report on how the temperature and weather effects football punting do you have any info that could help me?Any info would help. Thank you Chase Ive got a Question im doing a science report on how the temperature and weather effects football punting do you have any info that could help me?Any info would help. Thank you Chase

]]> Comment on Tecmo Super Bowl Game of the Week: Patriots at Saints by Lou http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4793&cpage=1#comment-101547 Lou Sat, 28 Nov 2009 18:39:43 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4793#comment-101547 The pats should bet the shorts off the NO. Just for my father in law!!!!!!!! I want to see his face!!!!! The pats should bet the shorts off the NO. Just for my father in law!!!!!!!! I want to see his face!!!!!

]]> Comment on Gary Kubiak and Coaching Scared by Danish Denver-fan! http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815&cpage=1#comment-101546 Danish Denver-fan! Sat, 28 Nov 2009 17:44:54 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815#comment-101546 I just watched the game again, and by reading of lips, I'm positive that Brown yelled "that's a bad call" on the sidelines. If I'm right, and if he was loud it's very gutsy. I just watched the game again, and by reading of lips, I'm positive that Brown yelled "that's a bad call" on the sidelines. If I'm right, and if he was loud it's very gutsy.

]]> Comment on Gary Kubiak and Coaching Scared by Brian 2 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815&cpage=1#comment-101533 Brian 2 Sat, 28 Nov 2009 11:25:36 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815#comment-101533 I don't get why a running play wouldn't have worked. A draw between the center and the guard or even the guard and tackle should have put him closer to the center and barring some insane defensive breakthrough on the play, he should have at least gotten back to the line of scrimmage and could have probably scraped out a few more yards. Furthermore, his judgement doesn't even do the offense complete justice, since some penalties(namely false start) could have incurred on his centering play. But ultimately, it falls to the ultimate fate that no one will realize just how effective Young actually is and everyone will think it's just the Texans until they win a playoff game or a Super Bowl. And with a Bronco's win, that window is closing as 3 teams have a lead, the Texans have the toughest game of any wild card, and the odds are no longer in their favor(as they were before they lost to the Texans). I don't get why a running play wouldn't have worked. A draw between the center and the guard or even the guard and tackle should have put him closer to the center and barring some insane defensive breakthrough on the play, he should have at least gotten back to the line of scrimmage and could have probably scraped out a few more yards.
Furthermore, his judgement doesn't even do the offense complete justice, since some penalties(namely false start) could have incurred on his centering play.
But ultimately, it falls to the ultimate fate that no one will realize just how effective Young actually is and everyone will think it's just the Texans until they win a playoff game or a Super Bowl. And with a Bronco's win, that window is closing as 3 teams have a lead, the Texans have the toughest game of any wild card, and the odds are no longer in their favor(as they were before they lost to the Texans).

]]> Comment on Gary Kubiak and Coaching Scared by MattieShoes http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815&cpage=1#comment-101532 MattieShoes Sat, 28 Nov 2009 10:56:23 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815#comment-101532 What about defensive penalties? I don't know how much, but defensive holding/defensive PI should widen the gap. It certainly seems possible to split the difference too, play conservative without playing stupid. If you want to play it safe, call a pass play with extra protection for Schaub's blindside, and make it clear he's to throw it away rather than risk an INT. The players aren't robots, you could do that. I imagine his completion percentage and expected yardage gain would drop, but his sack and INT rate would also drop. May still not be optimal, but it'd have to be better than what they actually DID... What about defensive penalties? I don't know how much, but defensive holding/defensive PI should widen the gap.

It certainly seems possible to split the difference too, play conservative without playing stupid. If you want to play it safe, call a pass play with extra protection for Schaub's blindside, and make it clear he's to throw it away rather than risk an INT. The players aren't robots, you could do that. I imagine his completion percentage and expected yardage gain would drop, but his sack and INT rate would also drop. May still not be optimal, but it'd have to be better than what they actually DID...

]]> Comment on NFL ratings through 11 weeks by John Souza http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4784&cpage=1#comment-101531 John Souza Sat, 28 Nov 2009 06:28:22 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4784#comment-101531 Using yards per attempt to define a team's rankings, is very misleading. Here are 2 sites that have much better and more thought out ratings: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff Using yards per attempt to define a team's rankings, is very misleading. Here are 2 sites that have much better and more thought out ratings:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

]]> Comment on Tecmo Super Bowl Game of the Week: Patriots at Saints by Andrew http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4793&cpage=1#comment-101530 Andrew Sat, 28 Nov 2009 01:15:03 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4793#comment-101530 This was more exciting than any of the Thanksgiving games. This was more exciting than any of the Thanksgiving games.

]]> Comment on Gary Kubiak and Coaching Scared by Mr Shush http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815&cpage=1#comment-101526 Mr Shush Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:29:45 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4815#comment-101526 I didn't agree with the decision, but I will say this: Kris Brown has a strong leg but is erratic from any range. I confess I am basing this entirely on subjective recollection of years of watching the Texans, but I do not really feel much more confident that he'll hit from 39 yards than 49. Hell, I don't tend to feel entirely confident he'll hit from 29. It's always seemed to me that he's an excellent kick-off man who is good (relative to other kickers) on long range field goals but bad (relative to other kickers) on shorter ones. I suspect that the distance/probability gradient may be shallower for him than for kickers overall. Also, note that on the night so far, Schaub had been sacked on roughly 9% of his dropbacks - a smaller, but more relevant sample than his career/season numbers. I think this was the wrong decision from Kubiak, but I really don't think it was a horrible one. It's certainly not "stuff like this" that is "the reason the Texans aren't a winning team. Fans way over-rate the importance of the game-management part of a coach's job. The Texans aren't a winning team because they have a bad secondary, no depth on the offensive line, and lack experience across the board. I didn't agree with the decision, but I will say this: Kris Brown has a strong leg but is erratic from any range. I confess I am basing this entirely on subjective recollection of years of watching the Texans, but I do not really feel much more confident that he'll hit from 39 yards than 49. Hell, I don't tend to feel entirely confident he'll hit from 29. It's always seemed to me that he's an excellent kick-off man who is good (relative to other kickers) on long range field goals but bad (relative to other kickers) on shorter ones. I suspect that the distance/probability gradient may be shallower for him than for kickers overall.

Also, note that on the night so far, Schaub had been sacked on roughly 9% of his dropbacks - a smaller, but more relevant sample than his career/season numbers.

I think this was the wrong decision from Kubiak, but I really don't think it was a horrible one. It's certainly not "stuff like this" that is "the reason the Texans aren't a winning team. Fans way over-rate the importance of the game-management part of a coach's job. The Texans aren't a winning team because they have a bad secondary, no depth on the offensive line, and lack experience across the board.

]]> Comment on How Unique is 11-10? by Doug Lowe http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=749&cpage=1#comment-101523 Doug Lowe Fri, 27 Nov 2009 05:26:30 +0000 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=749#comment-101523 According to Wikipedia, it is possible for the defense to score 1 point on a "conversion safety." So shouldn't scores like 6-1, 13-1, etc be listed as possibilities? According to Wikipedia, it is possible for the defense to score 1 point on a "conversion safety." So shouldn't scores like 6-1, 13-1, etc be listed as possibilities?

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