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Archive for March, 2007

What’s a draft pick worth? (part II)

Posted by Doug on March 30, 2007

A couple of posts ago I summarized the work of Cade Massey and Richard Thaler who, after studying the NFL draft rigorously, claim that it is not what it seems. Where I hope to add to the discussion is by seeing if the Massey and Thaler's theoretical results actually translate to the field.

I don't have that done yet, but it will happen next week. In the mean time, the following fact is worth pointing out. If you add up the Massey-Thaler surplus value of every draft slot, the team with the first pick (i.e. the worst team) still has the most surplus value, and the team with the last pick has the least. More interesting, though, is that the difference between the most and least amount of total value is almost nothing:


Total
surplus
TM value
==========
1 3.723
2 3.717
3 3.709
4 3.702
5 3.694
6 3.686
7 3.677
8 3.669
9 3.659
10 3.651
11 3.640
12 3.629
13 3.617
14 3.607
15 3.595
16 3.582
17 3.569
18 3.555
19 3.543
20 3.529
21 3.514
22 3.499
23 3.487
24 3.475
25 3.462
26 3.449
27 3.435
28 3.423
29 3.410
30 3.395
31 3.382
32 3.366

The units are millions of dollars of surplus value. So the Raiders endowment of draft slots is theoretically worth $3.72 million in surplus performance, while the Colts' is worth $3.37 million. So the logical conclusion of Thaler and Massey's paper isn't that the worst team gets the worst draft slot. It's that the worst team gets, all things considered, the best draft slot, but only by an insignificant amount.

If you think about it, it should be obvious that, even under the Massey-Thaler hypothesis, the Raiders' collection of picks is worth more than the Colts'. If you consider #33 equivalent to #32, #65 equivalent to #64, and so on, the only difference is that the Raiders have #1 while the Colts have #224. Massey and Thaler do not claim that the #1 pick is a liability. While not as valuable as the other picks in the first round, it's still more valuable than pick #224.

Back to the main question. If, as maurile suggested in the comments to Wednesday's post, having draft slots with extra theoretical surplus value is like having extra money added to your salary cap, then we're talking about a maximum possible difference between teams that is less than half a percent of the cap. I should have figured this out as I read the paper; it says that the surplus value of the #1 pick is about $600,000 and the that of the best pick (#43ish) is around $750,000. That's $150,000. Do you want every edge you can get? I guess, but having an extra .15 million added to your nine-figure salary cap is about as much of an advantage as playing a game needing 9.995 yards for every first down instead of 10.

So Massey and Thaler contradict themselves in their own title. There is no "Loser's Curse." There just isn't much of a Loser's Blessing, either. Assuming you buy into their methodology, what they've shown is that the market has organized itself in such a way that all 32 teams have a roughly equivalent endowment of theoretical draft value each year. That's pretty neat.

30 Comments | Posted in NFL Draft

An illustrative example: Lance Briggs and #31 for #6

Posted by Doug on March 29, 2007

What better example of the ideas in yesterday's post than this rumored trade between the Redskins and Bears.

Drew Rosenhaus, the agent for Bears' disgruntled Pro Bowl linebacker Lance Briggs, told FOXSports.com that the Redskins informed him Monday that they would like to swing a deal that would send Washington's first-round pick, No. 6 overall, to Chicago for the Bears' first-rounder, No. 31, and Briggs.

Last year's #6 pick, Vernon Davis, signed a 5-year, 23 million dollar contract. Last year's #31 pick, defensive back Kelly Jennings, signed a 5-year, 10 million dollar contract. NFL contracts are notoriously tough to get a handle on, but I think in this case it's probably OK to assume that the difference between them is in actuality somewhere around $13 million in cap charges over five years.

I know this isn't exactly the same, but if Dan Snyder offered Briggs a signing bonus of $13 million and annual salaries in line with a typical starting linebacker, would that get him to Washington for the next five years? Probably not --- Joey Porter, who is a few years older and possibly not quite as good, got a $12 million dollar signing bonus from Miami earlier this offseason --- but it might be in the ballpark.

I'm not necessarily making a comment on whether this would or would not be a good move for either team. It's just a timely reminder about the core ideas in the Massey-Thaler paper: the choice for the Redskins isn't Gaines Adams (#6) vs. Ben Grubbs (#31). It's Gaines Adams vs. Ben Grubbs and Lance Briggs (or at least some substantial portion of Lance Briggs). Furthermore, even when someone like Lance Briggs isn't explicitly involved in the trade, the resources freed by taking Grubbs instead of Adams might conceivably get you someone like Briggs from the open market.

3 Comments | Posted in NFL Draft

What’s a draft pick worth?

Posted by Doug on March 28, 2007

I'm sure most of you have read about the NFL draft study conducted by economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler. If not, here is the short version: Massey and Thaler took about a decade's worth of statistics on the NFL draft and concluded that the best picks to have (in a particular sense that I'll discuss in a second) are those in the 25--50 range. They claim that the first pick is, all things considered, the least valuable pick in the first round and that the Raiders should be willing to swap their pick for the #30 pick. Straight up.

How can this be?

Massey and Thaler are not claiming that the players available at #30 will turn out to be better than those available at #1. They are instead claiming that the players available at #30 will likely turn out to be only a little worse than those available at #1, but that they will cost a lot less. From their paper:

We think that while our results are surprising, they are plausible. We suspect that some teams have not fully come to grips with the implications of the salary cap, a relatively new innovation. Buying expensive players, even if they turn out to be great performers, imposes opportunity costs elsewhere on the roster. Spending $10 million on a star quarterback instead of $5 million on a journeyman implies having $5 million less to spend on offensive linemen to block or linebackers to tackle.

In other words, the #30 pick is not better than the #1 pick. But the player picked at #30, together with some other player or combination of players you can sign with the money you didn't have to pay the #1 pick, is better than the player picked at #1.

They state all their findings in terms of "surplus value" and the units used are dollars, so this seems to be advice for the owners: pick #30 will provide you a greater return on your investment than pick #1 will.

But what if the units were wins instead of dollars? Theoretically, wins and dollars should align very closely, and that seems to be the assumption that Massey and Thaler implicitly make. But does it really play out that way? In reality, does the extra surplus value gained by the teams at the bottom of the first round get translated (somehow) to wins on the football field? In other words, does this paper speak to fans, or just to the owners?

As is always the case when academics publish a paper that implies that the conventional wisdom is drastically wrong, the main counterargument is a simple and somewhat persuasive one. Namely, the most highly regarded and well-trained experts in a multi-billion dollar enterprise can't possibly be that wrong. They must know something that the study fails to capture. Massey and Thaler anticipate this criticism and address it with some convincing counterarguments of their own, but there is still the possibility that they are missing something.

My wild guess as to what that something might be is as follows. Maybe it's difficult or impossible to turn that theoretical surplus value you'd get by trading down into a real tangible value on the playing field between the time the draft picks are assigned and the time the next season starts. In other words, yes, the Raiders could trade #1 straight up for #30; the quality of player they'd end up with declines just a little, but they save a ton of money. Massey and Thaler claim this is a good thing. But what are they going to do with that extra money? What if there are no free agents available who are worth what they're asking? What if none of their current young standouts are amenable to signing an extension at a reasonable price?

Sure, if there was an All-Pro offensive lineman on the market and signable for the difference in salary between JaMarcus Russell and Drew Stanton, the Raiders should go that route. But I'm not aware of any such lineman. They could have upgraded from Dominic Rhodes and Tony Stewart to Jamal Lewis and Daniel Graham, or something like that, but how sure are we that Russell/Rhodes/Stewart won't provide better bang for the buck than Stanton/Lewis/Graham would? At $30 million for five years, how much surplus value can Daniel Graham possibly have? According to Thaler and Massey's data, the #1 pick doesn't generate as much surplus value as the #30 pick, but it does offer a substantial amount of surplus value. So why not pay a bit of a premium for the guy with the better chance of being a star, even if it's only slightly better?

I don't know if I believe that theory or not. I'm just throwing out a possibility. But whatever's going on, the real test of Massey and Thaler's theory --- from a fan's point of view --- is whether or not teams with the high draft picks are more likely to improve than teams with lower picks. If they're correct, then bad teams that for whatever reason are not picking at the top of the first round should improve more quickly than similarly bad teams that are "stuck" with their early picks.

I'm going to try to address that question in detail in a future post. For now, let me set up the framework of my methodology while providing some interesting draft-related trivia.

On page 52 of their paper, Massey and Thaler show a graph of surplus value by draft slot. It rises from pick #1 until about pick #43, then it starts to fall again and keeps falling until the end of the draft. Again, they claim that, dollar for dollar, the end of the first round through the second round are the best picks to have. Massey and Thaler are very careful to point out that they don't have much confidence that this represents the exact relationship between pick number and surplus value:

Clearly, considerable caution should be used in interpreting this curve; it is meant to summarize the results simply. We do not have great confidence in its precise shape.

Nonetheless, it does represent their best guess in some sense, so that's what I'm going to use. But bear in mind that this study necessarily carries the same disclaimer.

The first thing I did was to eyeball that graph and make a numerical estimate of the value of each draft slot. Then I went through every team of the free agent era (1993--present) and calculated how valuable their draft slots were.

For example, the team with the best overall collection of slots was the 1997 Dolphins; they had 14 total picks, including four in the third round. By my accounting, the value of the Dolphins draft was 170.6 on a scale where league average is necessarily 100. To be more precise, I took the total Massey-Thaler value of all picks in the draft, then I divided that by the number of teams in the league at the time. Then I divided the total Massey-Thaler value of the Dolphins picks by the league average. Finally, I multiplied it by 100 to make it easier on the eyes. To summarize: 170.6 means that they had 70.6% more draft value than an average team.

The team with the lowest total draft value was... Ah, I'll let you guess. But I'll give you a hint: they only had one pick in the whole draft, and it was early in the first round.

Just for fun, I also made the same calculation as above, but with the NFL draft pick value chart, as provided by Gil Brandt here. Some interesting teams:


  • The 2004 Titans had thirteen total picks. They had no first-round picks, but had three second-rounders and two third-rounders. The pick value chart says their draft slots were worth 99.7, almost precisely average. The Massey-Thaler chart says it was 165.0, the third-highest figure of the period.
  • The 1998 Jets were similar to the Titans above. According to the pick value chart, their draft slots were worth about half that of an average team. Thaler and Massey say they were worth about 40% more than an average team.
  • The 1997 Seahawks had picks #3 and #6 in the first round, but no other pick until round five. The pick chart says their picks were worth 191, about twice that of an average team. The Massey-Thaler chart says they were only a 58, just over half that of an average team.
  • The 1998 Chargers' picks were worth 68.6 according to Massey and Thaler, but 148.3 according to the pick chart. Do you remember that draft, Charger fans?

In a forthcoming post (hopefully later this week, but no guarantees), I'll align this draft value data with the team records to see if it plays a role in team improvements and declines.

19 Comments | Posted in NFL Draft

Consistent franchises

Posted by Doug on March 26, 2007

In the comments to Friday's post, PackerNation observed:

Look at the Jets….they’re 6-10 or 10-6 or somewhere in between every year

And indeed, they have been in that range for 8 of the past 10 seasons. Apologies to PackerNation for lifting his quote out of its context, but I wasn't interested as much by the context as by the the fact that it gave me an idea. Namely, which franchises have been the most and least consistent over the past several seasons?

So I decided to calculate each teams' standard deviation of seasonal wins since 1978. As is typical, I made a guess about what the answer was going to be before I ran the query. As is very from from typical, my guesses were pretty close.

I immediately thought the 49ers would turn out to the be least consistent team; they've been way up and way back down a few times over the last few decades. They've got as many Lombardi trophies and less-than-5-win-seasons combined as they have between-6-and-10-win seasons. They do indeed have the highest standard deviation: 3.96 wins. Other inconsistent franchises include the Colts, Titans, Patriots, and Bears.

You might think the 49ers have the highest average number of wins during the period in question, but they don't. In fact, there are three teams with higher winning percentages and, oddly enough, all three of those teams rank among the most consistent franchises. They are the Dolphins, Broncos, and Steelers. The Dolphins, for what it's worth, were my guess at most consistent.

But the Dolphins have not, in fact, been the most consistent. No, the most consistent team is also the worst (not counting the Texans). It's the Cardinals, of course, and in my mind this obliterates any argument that Lion or Bengal fans think they might have in a franchise futility contest.

I'll close with a fun chart:


========== Number of N-win seasons ============
AvWins StDev 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
==================+===============================================
crd 5.91 1.69 | 4 1 6 3 9 5 1
htx 4.80 1.72 | 1 1 1 1 1
mia 9.53 2.12 | 1 5 4 4 7 5 2 1
sea 8.02 2.14 | 1 1 3 9 4 5 4 1 1
min 8.48 2.19 | 1 3 3 10 4 3 3 1 1
den 9.65 2.41 | 1 3 2 5 5 4 5 1 1 1 1
pit 9.44 2.42 | 1 1 1 2 6 2 7 2 3 3 1
kan 8.37 2.46 | 3 2 4 6 3 4 3 2 2
det 6.41 2.53 | 1 2 5 2 4 2 7 2 2 2
phi 8.80 2.60 | 1 3 5 7 1 1 5 2 3 1
rav 8.32 2.63 | 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1
gnb 8.37 2.65 | 2 2 2 4 5 6 3 1 4
nyj 7.52 2.66 | 1 3 4 4 5 2 4 4 1 1
atl 6.90 2.69 | 1 1 1 2 3 2 6 3 4 3 3
nor 7.31 2.70 | 1 1 1 3 2 6 7 2 1 1 3 1
cle 7.05 2.72 | 1 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 2 1
nyg 8.22 2.74 | 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 6 1 3
tam 6.54 2.80 | 1 2 3 3 1 2 5 6 2 1 3
was 8.64 2.88 | 3 2 1 6 3 4 2 4 2 1 1
rai 8.40 2.88 | 1 4 3 2 4 5 4 2 3 1
car 7.50 2.90 | 1 2 2 5 1 1
jax 8.50 2.93 | 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1
cin 6.68 2.94 | 3 1 1 1 6 4 2 1 5 4 1
sdg 7.77 2.97 | 1 2 4 1 4 5 1 4 2 4 1
ram 8.00 3.01 | 1 1 2 3 4 2 2 2 5 3 3 1
buf 8.05 3.05 | 2 2 3 4 2 3 5 2 2 1 1 2
dal 8.87 3.05 | 1 7 3 4 3 1 3 2 3 1 1
chi 8.38 3.20 | 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 5 3 4 3
nwe 8.46 3.24 | 2 1 5 4 7 2 2 3 2 1
oti 8.01 3.30 | 2 2 4 4 2 4 3 3 1 1 3
clt 7.15 3.62 | 1 1 3 3 4 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 2
sfo 9.40 3.96 | 1 4 3 3 2 6 2 2 1 2 3

Fine print: a "10-win-season" is actually one in which the team's winning percentage, when multiplied by 16, gets rounded to 10. Likewise, the AvWins and StDev columns in the chart above are actually 16*AvWinPct and 16*StDevOfWinPct, respectively. All this junk is only relevant for strike years and seasons that have ties.

13 Comments | Posted in General, History

Where should you do your quarterback shopping?

Posted by Doug on March 23, 2007

Matt Schaub: Superstar was traded to Houston the other day for a price that I'd call high but not extravagant. That means we can expect to see David Carr on the move soon, with Minnesota, Miami, and Oakland being mentioned as possible destinations.

Everyone has draft on the brain right now and, as seems to be the case every year, there are a couple of quarterbacks who are being considered as potential first overall picks and who, barring something unforeseen, should go in the top ten. Both have their strong points, but both also have significant questions and, as usual, we're starting to hear the chorus of "drafting a quarterback with a top 10 pick is too expensive and too risky" from media and fans.

The three teams mentioned above --- the Vikings, Dolphins, and Raiders --- could conceivably be in position to draft either JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn this year. Or they could trade for David Carr on the cheap. Until a few days ago, they could also have traded for Matt Schaub.

I don't think anyone denies that your chances of winning a Super Bowl are drastically improved if you have a good quarterback. But where people differ is on how you go about acquiring one. If you're the Oakland Raiders, where are you most likely to find the quarterback on your next Super Bowl team?


  • You could draft JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn - the risks here are well-documented: you're paying a lot of money for someone who could end up playing like Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith. What might even be worse than that is if you end up with a Joey Harrington or a David Carr (or an Alex Smith? or a Michael Vick???) who doesn't ever play particularly well, but shows enough flashes of competence that you end up hanging onto him for several years. On the other hand, lots of first overall picks do end up winning Super Bowls with the team that drafted them.
  • You could have traded for Matt Schaub - this gets you someone who is slightly more proven than Russell or Quinn. And you pay slightly less money. But Rob Johnson and Scott Mitchell remind us that this strategy isn't bust-proof either. And it seems like your upside is more Hasselbeck/Delhomme/Brunell than Palmer/Aikman/Manning.
  • You can trade for David Carr or some other relatively young and seemingly talented quarterback who might be resuscitated by a change of scenery. Pacifist Viking has been calling David Carr the next Jim Plunkett for months now. This is a cheap strategy but, Plunkett notwithstanding, it has a low probability of netting you the starter on your next Super Bowl contender.
  • You can try to draft your own Matt Schaub in the middle rounds - the problem here is that, even if you do find that gem, you're looking at a minimum of two years before he's even your starter and you get to see what he's really capable of. For the record, here are the quarterbacks drafted in the 3rd and 4th round between 2000 and 2004: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, Josh McCown, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Seneca Wallace, Matt Schaub, Luke McCown. This strategy could leave you spinning your wheels for a long time.

So what's it going to be? I fully understand the reluctance to hitch your wagon to JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn. I'm just not sure I see a better option.

21 Comments | Posted in General, NFL Draft

Thanks

Posted by Doug on March 22, 2007

I just realized that, as of yesterday, this blog has now been in existence for one full year.

Thanks to everyone for reading and commenting.

13 Comments | Posted in P-F-R News

All-time franchise leaders

Posted by Doug on March 21, 2007

People frequently request this feature at the site.

My database is about 99.5% complete from 1960 to the present and contains most of the all-time greats (e.g. Don Hutson) whose careers ended in the 50s or earlier. So I'm nearly certain I've got these right for the 20 franchises that came into existence in 1960 or later. I suspect that they're mostly correct for the old-time franchises too, but I wouldn't be surprised if I was missing a few guys. If you know of an all-time list for your favorite team, please compare it and let me know if I'm missing anyone.

Lots of fun stuff to be found in here. Enjoy.

NOTE: I tried adding links, but couldn't things to format right. Here is the same list, but linkified.

AZ/STL/CHI Cardinals


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Hart 2590 J Hart 5069 J Hart 34639
N Lomax 1817 N Lomax 3153 N Lomax 22771
J Plummer 1540 J Plummer 2754 J Plummer 17622
C Johnson 1030 C Johnson 2047 C Johnson 14928
J McCown 498 L McHan 1012 L McHan 6578
L McHan 433 J McCown 861 J McCown 5431
S Beuerlein 388 S Beuerlein 673 S Beuerlein 4709
K Warner 350 C Chandler 566 K Warner 4090
C Chandler 322 T Rosenbach 551 T Rosenbach 3676
D Krieg 304 K Warner 543 C Chandler 3592

Passing TDs Interceptions
J Hart 209 J Hart 247
N Lomax 136 J Plummer 114
C Johnson 108 C Johnson 110
J Plummer 90 N Lomax 90
L McHan 50 L McHan 77
J Hardy 30 J Hardy 47
J McCown 25 C Trippi 31
S Beuerlein 23 J McCown 29
J Roach 19 S Beuerlein 26
C Chandler 19 T Rosenbach 24

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
O Anderson 1858 O Anderson 7999 O Anderson 46
J Otis 1011 S Mitchell 4649 W Morris 37
S Mitchell 986 J Otis 3863 J Crow 33
J Roland 962 J Roland 3608 S Mitchell 32
W Morris 894 C Trippi 3506 E Angsman 27
J Crow 787 J Crow 3489 J Roland 27
O Matson 761 T Metcalf 3438 P Harder 25
T Metcalf 748 W Morris 3375 E Ferrell 24
C Trippi 687 O Matson 3331 O Matson 24
E Ferrell 685 E Ferrell 2950 T Metcalf 24

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
L Centers 535 R Green 8496 R Green 66
R Green 522 J Smith 7918 S Randle 60
F Sanders 493 P Tilley 7005 M Gray 45
J Smith 480 M Gray 6644 J Smith 40
P Tilley 468 F Sanders 6579 B Conrad 38
B Conrad 418 B Conrad 5828 P Tilley 37
J Smith 377 S Randle 5438 R Moore 27
M Gray 351 R Moore 5110 J Smith 27
A Boldin 342 J Smith 4701 L Fitzgeral 24
S Randle 328 A Boldin 4605 F Sanders 24

Atlanta Falcons


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
S Bartkowsk 1871 S Bartkowsk 3330 S Bartkowsk23470
C Miller 1129 C Miller 2089 C Miller 14066
C Chandler 981 M Vick 1730 C Chandler 13268
M Vick 930 C Chandler 1672 M Vick 11505
J George 714 J George 1180 J George 8575
B Hebert 637 B Hebert 1066 B Berry 8489
B Berry 598 B Berry 1049 B Hebert 7053
R Johnson 435 R Johnson 904 R Johnson 5538
D Archer 331 D Archer 647 D Archer 4275
B Tolliver 215 B Tolliver 404 B Lee 2638

Passing TDs Interceptions
S Bartkowsk 154 S Bartkowsk 141
C Miller 87 C Miller 72
C Chandler 87 R Johnson 65
M Vick 71 C Chandler 56
B Berry 57 B Berry 56
B Hebert 50 M Vick 52
J George 50 B Hebert 49
R Johnson 34 J George 32
D Archer 18 D Archer 29
B Tolliver 17 K McQuilken 28

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
G Riggs 1587 G Riggs 6631 G Riggs 48
J Anderson 1329 W Andrews 5986 J Anderson 34
W Andrews 1315 J Anderson 5336 T Duckett 31
W Dunn 1186 W Dunn 5261 W Andrews 30
D Hampton 882 M Vick 3870 W Dunn 26
H Stanback 728 D Hampton 3482 H Stanback 25
C Butler 609 H Stanback 2662 M Vick 21
L Cain 604 L Cain 2263 L Cain 19
T Duckett 552 C Butler 2250 A Malone 18
A Malone 532 C Heyward 2183 D Hampton 17

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Mathis 573 T Mathis 7349 T Mathis 57
A Rison 423 A Jenkins 6267 A Rison 56
A Jenkins 360 A Rison 5633 A Jenkins 40
J Mitchell 305 J Mitchell 4358 M Haynes 34
W Andrews 277 M Haynes 4220 A Crumpler 30
A Crumpler 274 A Crumpler 3768 J Mitchell 28
M Haynes 266 W Francis 3695 W Francis 27
B Emanuel 260 B Emanuel 3600 B Emanuel 24
W Francis 244 S Bailey 3422 K Burrow 21
S Bailey 206 A Jackson 3001 A Jackson 21

Baltimore Ravens


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
V Testaverd 596 K Boller 1036 V Testaverd 7148
K Boller 578 V Testaverd 1019 K Boller 6103
T Banks 319 T Banks 594 T Banks 3714
S McNair 295 S McNair 468 S McNair 3050
E Grbac 265 E Grbac 467 E Grbac 3033
A Wright 258 A Wright 444 A Wright 2781
E Zeier 184 E Zeier 318 E Zeier 2367
J Blake 165 J Blake 295 J Blake 2084
J Harbaugh 164 J Harbaugh 293 J Harbaugh 1839
T Dilfer 133 T Dilfer 225 T Dilfer 1502

Passing TDs Interceptions
V Testaverd 51 K Boller 34
K Boller 36 V Testaverd 34
T Banks 25 E Grbac 18
S McNair 16 A Wright 17
E Grbac 15 T Banks 16
A Wright 15 S McNair 12
J Blake 13 T Dilfer 11
E Zeier 12 J Blake 11
T Dilfer 12 J Harbaugh 11
J Harbaugh 12 S Case 8

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Lewis 1822 J Lewis 7801 J Lewis 45
P Holmes 459 P Holmes 2102 P Holmes 10
B Morris 376 C Taylor 1599 B Morris 8
C Taylor 373 B Morris 1511 J Brookins 5
E Rhett 280 E Rhett 1032 E Rhett 5
E Byner 243 E Byner 947 C Taylor 4
T Allen 168 T Allen 658 E Byner 4
J Brookins 151 J Brookins 551 T Allen 3
K Boller 128 J Graham 408 S Case 3
J Graham 116 K Boller 351 J Graham 2

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Heap 316 T Heap 3658 T Heap 26
T Taylor 204 Q Ismail 2819 M Jackson 18
Q Ismail 191 T Taylor 2758 D Alexander 18
M Jackson 183 M Jackson 2596 Q Ismail 18
J Lewis 160 D Alexander 2108 J Lewis 16
D Mason 154 J Lewis 1984 T Taylor 15
S Sharpe 140 D Mason 1823 E Green 7
J Lewis 136 S Sharpe 1621 M Clayton 7
D Alexander 127 M Clayton 1410 B Stokley 7
E Green 114 J Lewis 1365 P Johnson 7

Buffalo Bills


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Kelly 2874 J Kelly 4779 J Kelly 35467
J Ferguson 2188 J Ferguson 4166 J Ferguson 27590
J Kemp 1039 J Kemp 2240 J Kemp 15134
D Bledsoe 905 D Bledsoe 1531 D Bledsoe 10151
D Flutie 598 D Flutie 1063 D Flutie 7582
D Shaw 485 D Shaw 916 D Shaw 6286
R Johnson 401 R Johnson 663 R Johnson 4798
J Losman 384 J Losman 662 J Losman 4423
T Collins 284 T Collins 519 T Collins 3218
A Van Pelt 262 A Van Pelt 477 A Van Pelt 2985

Passing TDs Interceptions
J Kelly 237 J Ferguson 190
J Ferguson 181 J Kelly 175
J Kemp 77 J Kemp 132
D Bledsoe 55 D Shaw 67
D Flutie 47 D Bledsoe 43
D Shaw 35 D Flutie 30
J Losman 27 A Van Pelt 24
R Johnson 27 D Lamonica 23
F Reich 18 J Losman 23
D Lamonica 16 D Darragh 22

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
T Thomas 2849 T Thomas 11938 T Thomas 65
O Simpson 2123 O Simpson 10183 O Simpson 57
J Cribbs 1082 J Cribbs 4445 C Gilchrist 31
T Henry 963 T Henry 3849 W Carlton 29
W McGahee 868 W Carlton 3368 T Henry 27
W Carlton 819 W McGahee 3365 A Smith 26
A Smith 760 C Gilchrist 3056 J Kemp 25
J Braxton 721 A Smith 2932 W McGahee 24
C Gilchrist 676 J Braxton 2842 J Braxton 23
G Bell 589 K Davis 2460 K Davis 23

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
A Reed 941 A Reed 13095 A Reed 86
E Moulds 675 E Moulds 9091 E Moulds 48
T Thomas 456 E Dubenion 5294 E Dubenion 35
P Metzelaar 302 F Lewis 4638 B Chandler 34
B Chandler 295 T Thomas 4341 J Butler 29
E Dubenion 294 J Butler 4301 P Price 25
P Price 281 B Chandler 3999 P Metzelaar 25
J Butler 278 P Price 3704 L Evans 24
F Lewis 269 P Metzelaar 2921 F Lewis 24
J Riemersma 204 L Evans 2878 T Thomas 22

Carolina Panthers


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Delhomme 1101 J Delhomme 1848 J Delhomme 13331
S Beuerlein 1041 S Beuerlein 1723 S Beuerlein12690
K Collins 694 K Collins 1339 K Collins 8306
C Weinke 373 C Weinke 687 C Weinke 3800
R Peete 228 R Peete 392 R Peete 2652
F Reich 37 F Reich 84 F Reich 441
J Lewis 18 R Fasani 44 R Fasani 171
M Lytle 17 J Lewis 35 M Lytle 133
R Fasani 15 M Lytle 30 J Lewis 131
J Trudeau 11 J Trudeau 17 J Trudeau 100

Passing TDs Interceptions
J Delhomme 89 J Delhomme 58
S Beuerlein 86 K Collins 54
K Collins 47 S Beuerlein 50
R Peete 15 C Weinke 26
C Weinke 14 R Peete 14
F Reich 2 R Fasani 4
M Lytle 1 M Lytle 3
C Cramer 0 J Trudeau 3
D Beebe 0 F Reich 2
R Smart 0 K Johnson 1

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
T Biakabutu 611 T Biakabutu 2530 S Davis 20
D Foster 604 D Foster 2460 T Biakabutu 14
S Davis 522 S Davis 2085 F Lane 13
F Lane 502 F Lane 2001 L Smith 7
A Johnson 482 A Johnson 1791 A Johnson 7
N Goings 391 N Goings 1460 W Floyd 7
B Hoover 243 B Hoover 852 D Foster 7
L Smith 210 D Moore 740 C Weinke 6
D Moore 195 L Smith 733 N Goings 6
R Huntley 166 R Huntley 665 K Collins 4

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
M Muhammad 578 M Muhammad 7751 W Walls 44
S Smith 344 S Smith 4925 M Muhammad 44
W Walls 324 W Walls 3902 S Smith 30
M Carrier 176 M Carrier 2547 M Carrier 13
K Mangum 151 D Hayes 1855 P Jeffers 12
D Hayes 132 R Ismail 1657 R Ismail 10
B Hoover 125 W Green 1496 K Mangum 9
R Ismail 117 K Mangum 1424 W Green 9
N Goings 107 R Proehl 1327 R Proehl 8
A Johnson 103 P Jeffers 1209 D Hayes 7

Chicago Bears


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Harbaugh 1023 J Harbaugh 1759 S Luckman 14686
E Kramer 913 S Luckman 1744 J Harbaugh 11567
S Luckman 904 E Kramer 1557 J McMahon 11203
J McMahon 874 J McMahon 1513 E Kramer 10582
B Wade 767 B Wade 1407 B Wade 9958
E Brown 607 E Brown 1246 E Brown 9698
J Miller 565 B Avellini 1110 B Avellini 7111
B Avellini 560 G Blanda 988 J Lujack 6295
J Concannon 486 J Miller 965 R Bukich 6254
R Bukich 474 V Evans 953 M Tomczak 6247

Passing TDs Interceptions
S Luckman 137 S Luckman 132
B Wade 68 E Brown 88
J McMahon 67 G Blanda 70
E Kramer 63 B Avellini 69
E Brown 63 B Wade 66
J Harbaugh 50 Z Bratkowsk 58
G Blanda 48 J McMahon 56
R Bukich 46 J Harbaugh 56
J Lujack 41 J Lujack 54
J Miller 34 V Evans 53

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
W Payton 3838 W Payton 16726 W Payton 110
N Anderson 1515 N Anderson 6166 N Anderson 51
R Casares 1386 R Casares 5657 R Casares 49
G Sayers 991 G Sayers 4956 G Sayers 39
A Thomas 858 T Jones 3493 W Galimore 26
T Jones 850 A Thomas 3332 T Jones 22
M Suhey 828 R Harper 3044 A Thomas 21
R Bull 787 W Galimore 2985 J Lujack 21
R Harper 757 M Suhey 2946 B Douglass 20
W Galimore 670 R Bull 2871 M Suhey 20

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
W Payton 492 J Morris 5059 K Kavanaugh 50
J Morris 356 H Hill 4616 H Hill 40
C Conway 329 W Payton 4538 D Gordon 35
M Ditka 316 M Ditka 4503 M Ditka 34
M Booker 315 C Conway 4498 C Conway 31
N Anderson 302 M Booker 3678 J Morris 31
M Suhey 260 W Gault 3650 W Gault 27
B Engram 246 K Kavanaugh 3626 M Booker 23
D Gordon 238 D Gordon 3550 D McKinnon 21
H Hill 226 J Scott 3202 J Scott 20

Cincinnati Bengals


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
K Anderson 2654 K Anderson 4475 K Anderson 32838
B Esiason 2015 B Esiason 3564 B Esiason 27149
J Blake 1240 J Blake 2221 J Blake 15134
J Kitna 1009 J Kitna 1707 C Palmer 10768
C Palmer 932 C Palmer 1461 J Kitna 10707
D Klingler 375 D Klingler 687 D Klingler 3880
V Carter 328 V Carter 582 V Carter 3850
T Schonert 216 A Smith 461 T Schonert 2756
A Smith 215 J Thompson 370 N O'Donnell 2216
N O'Donnell 212 T Schonert 350 A Smith 2212

Passing TDs Interceptions
K Anderson 197 K Anderson 160
B Esiason 187 B Esiason 131
J Blake 93 J Blake 62
C Palmer 78 J Kitna 59
J Kitna 59 C Palmer 43
V Carter 22 D Klingler 21
D Klingler 16 V Carter 20
G Cook 15 J Thompson 19
N O'Donnell 15 J Reaves 17
J Thompson 13 A Smith 13

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
C Dillon 1865 C Dillon 8061 P Johnson 64
P Johnson 1402 J Brooks 6447 C Dillon 45
J Brooks 1344 P Johnson 5421 R Johnson 45
R Johnson 1271 R Johnson 5245 L Kinnebrew 37
H Green 968 H Green 3727 J Brooks 37
B Clark 779 E Johnson 3070 I Woods 27
C Alexander 748 B Clark 2978 B Clark 25
A Griffin 691 A Griffin 2808 K Anderson 20
E Johnson 675 C Alexander 2645 P Robinson 19
L Kinnebrew 639 L Kinnebrew 2582 E Johnson 18

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
C Pickens 530 I Curtis 7101 C Pickens 63
C Johnson 466 C Johnson 6925 I Curtis 53
C Collinswo 417 C Pickens 6887 C Johnson 41
I Curtis 416 C Collinswo 6698 E Brown 41
D Scott 386 E Brown 6134 D Scott 36
E Brown 363 D Scott 5975 C Collinswo 36
R Holman 318 T McGee 4703 B Trumpy 35
T Houshmand 303 B Trumpy 4600 R Holman 34
T McGee 299 R Holman 4329 J Brooks 27
B Trumpy 298 T McGee 3795 T McGee 25

Cleveland Browns


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
B Sipe 1944 B Sipe 3439 B Sipe 23713
B Kosar 1853 B Kosar 3150 B Kosar 21904
T Couch 1025 F Ryan 1755 O Graham 13499
F Ryan 907 T Couch 1714 F Ryan 13363
O Graham 872 O Graham 1565 T Couch 11131
B Nelsen 689 M Phipps 1317 B Nelsen 9725
M Phipps 633 B Nelsen 1314 M Plum 8914
M Plum 627 M Plum 1083 M Phipps 7700
V Testaverd 578 V Testaverd 998 V Testaverd 7255
P McDonald 411 P McDonald 767 P McDonald 5269

Passing TDs Interceptions
B Sipe 154 B Sipe 149
F Ryan 134 O Graham 94
B Kosar 116 F Ryan 88
O Graham 88 M Phipps 81
B Nelsen 71 B Kosar 81
M Plum 66 B Nelsen 71
T Couch 64 T Couch 67
V Testaverd 47 M Plum 39
M Phipps 40 V Testaverd 37
K Holcomb 26 P McDonald 37

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Brown 2359 J Brown 12312 J Brown 106
L Kelly 1727 L Kelly 7274 L Kelly 74
M Pruitt 1593 M Pruitt 6540 M Pruitt 47
K Mack 1291 G Pruitt 5496 K Mack 46
G Pruitt 1158 K Mack 5123 O Graham 33
E Byner 862 E Byner 3364 E Byner 27
E Green 668 E Green 3204 G Pruitt 25
E Metcalf 592 B Mitchell 2297 B Scott 18
W Green 568 C Miller 2286 C Miller 16
B Scott 554 E Metcalf 2229 B Mitchell 16

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
O Newsome 662 O Newsome 7980 G Collins 70
G Collins 331 R Renfro 5508 P Warfield 52
G Pruitt 323 G Collins 5299 R Renfro 50
B Brennan 315 P Warfield 5210 O Newsome 47
R Rucker 310 R Rucker 4953 D Lavelli 33
W Slaughter 305 W Slaughter 4834 R Rucker 32
E Metcalf 297 D Logan 4247 M Jackson 28
R Renfro 281 M Morin 4208 W Slaughter 27
E Byner 276 B Brennan 4148 D Logan 24
D Northcutt 276 D Lavelli 3908 K Johnson 21

Dallas Cowboys


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
T Aikman 2898 T Aikman 4715 T Aikman 32942
D White 1761 R Staubach 2958 R Staubach 22700
R Staubach 1685 D White 2950 D White 21959
D Meredith 1170 D Meredith 2308 D Meredith 17199
C Morton 685 C Morton 1308 C Morton 10279
S Pelleur 520 S Pelleur 922 S Pelleur 6555
Q Carter 507 Q Carter 902 Q Carter 5839
D Bledsoe 390 E LeBaron 692 E LeBaron 5331
E LeBaron 359 D Bledsoe 668 D Bledsoe 4803
V Testaverd 297 G Hogeboom 518 G Hogeboom 3550

Passing TDs Interceptions
T Aikman 165 T Aikman 141
D White 155 D White 132
R Staubach 153 D Meredith 111
D Meredith 135 R Staubach 109
C Morton 80 C Morton 73
E LeBaron 45 E LeBaron 53
D Bledsoe 30 S Pelleur 38
Q Carter 29 Q Carter 36
S Pelleur 28 D Bledsoe 25
T Romo 19 G Hogeboom 23

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
E Smith 4052 E Smith 17162 E Smith 153
T Dorsett 2755 T Dorsett 12036 T Dorsett 72
D Perkins 1500 D Perkins 6217 D Perkins 42
C Hill 1166 C Hill 5009 C Hill 39
R Newhouse 1160 R Newhouse 4784 R Newhouse 31
W Garrison 899 W Garrison 3886 W Garrison 30
H Walker 818 H Walker 3491 R Springs 28
J Jones 721 J Jones 2896 H Walker 27
R Springs 604 R Staubach 2264 D Reeves 25
D Reeves 535 R Springs 2180 R Staubach 20

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
M Irvin 750 M Irvin 11904 B Hayes 71
D Pearson 489 T Hill 7988 M Irvin 65
E Smith 486 D Pearson 7822 T Hill 51
T Hill 479 B Hayes 7295 F Clarke 50
T Dorsett 382 F Clarke 5214 D Pearson 48
B Hayes 365 D Cosbie 3728 B Dupree 41
J Novacek 339 J Novacek 3576 L Rentzel 31
D Cosbie 300 B Dupree 3565 D Cosbie 30
D Johnston 294 L Rentzel 3521 J Novacek 21
F Clarke 281 T Dorsett 3432 T Glenn 20

Denver Broncos


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Elway 4123 J Elway 7250 J Elway 51475
B Griese 1044 B Griese 1678 C Morton 11895
J Plummer 944 J Plummer 1596 B Griese 11763
C Morton 907 C Morton 1594 J Plummer 11631
F Tripucka 662 F Tripucka 1277 F Tripucka 7676
C Johnson 517 C Johnson 970 C Johnson 7238
S Ramsey 456 S Ramsey 919 S Ramsey 6437
S Tensi 348 S Tensi 810 S Tensi 5153
S Deberg 314 M Slaughter 584 S Deberg 3819
M Slaughter 291 S Deberg 546 M Slaughter 3607

Passing TDs Interceptions
J Elway 300 J Elway 226
C Morton 74 F Tripucka 85
B Griese 71 C Morton 65
J Plummer 71 S Ramsey 58
C Johnson 52 B Griese 53
F Tripucka 51 C Johnson 52
S Tensi 38 J Plummer 47
S Ramsey 35 S Tensi 45
M Slaughter 23 M Slaughter 38
S Deberg 22 J McCormick 33

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
T Davis 1655 T Davis 7607 T Davis 60
F Little 1641 F Little 6323 F Little 43
S Winder 1486 S Winder 5427 S Winder 39
O Armstrong 1023 O Armstrong 4453 M Anderson 36
M Anderson 865 M Anderson 3822 J Elway 33
J Elway 774 J Elway 3407 C Portis 29
J Keyworth 699 C Portis 3099 O Armstrong 25
B Humphrey 593 J Keyworth 2653 J Keyworth 22
C Portis 563 B Humphrey 2386 G Willhite 17
T Bell 481 T Bell 2342 B Humphrey 14

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
R Smith 849 R Smith 11389 R Smith 68
S Sharpe 675 S Sharpe 8439 S Sharpe 55
L Taylor 543 L Taylor 6872 E McCaffrey 46
E McCaffrey 462 E McCaffrey 6200 L Taylor 44
V Johnson 415 S Watson 6112 H Moses 44
R Odoms 396 R Odoms 5755 R Odoms 41
S Watson 353 V Johnson 5695 V Johnson 37
H Moses 302 H Moses 5450 S Watson 36
M Jackson 276 M Jackson 4746 A Denson 32
R Upchurch 267 R Upchurch 4369 B Scarpitto 24

Detroit Lions


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
B Layne 1074 B Layne 2193 B Layne 15710
S Mitchell 1049 S Mitchell 1850 S Mitchell 12647
J Harringto 986 J Harringto 1802 G Landry 12451
G Landry 957 G Landry 1747 G Danielson11885
G Danielson 952 G Danielson 1684 E Hipple 10711
E Hipple 830 E Hipple 1546 J Harringto10242
C Batch 743 C Batch 1326 C Batch 9016
B Munson 716 M Plum 1315 M Plum 8536
M Plum 671 B Munson 1314 B Munson 8461
R Peete 641 R Peete 1125 R Peete 8164

Passing TDs Interceptions
B Layne 118 B Layne 142
G Landry 80 M Plum 87
S Mitchell 79 G Landry 81
G Danielson 69 G Danielson 71
J Harringto 60 E Hipple 70
B Munson 56 J Harringto 62
E Hipple 55 S Mitchell 57
M Plum 55 R Peete 49
E Morrall 52 B Munson 42
C Batch 49 E Morrall 41

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
B Sanders 3062 B Sanders 15269 B Sanders 99
D Bussey 1203 B Sims 5106 B Sims 42
A Taylor 1165 D Bussey 5105 N Pietrosan 28
B Sims 1131 A Taylor 4297 J Jones 26
J Jones 1010 N Pietrosan 3933 M Farr 26
N Pietrosan 938 J Jones 3626 A Taylor 24
M Farr 739 M Farr 3072 S Owens 20
J Stewart 713 J Stewart 2890 G Landry 19
D Lewis 651 D Lewis 2698 D Bussey 18
S Owens 635 G Landry 2502 B Hoernsche 17

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
H Moore 670 H Moore 9174 H Moore 62
J Morton 469 J Morton 6499 J Morton 35
B Perriman 428 B Perriman 5244 T Barr 35
B Sanders 352 G Cogdill 5221 L Thompson 35
C Sanders 336 C Sanders 4817 C Box 32
G Cogdill 325 L Thompson 4682 C Sanders 31
J Jones 318 T Barr 3810 G Cogdill 28
J Gibbons 287 F Scott 3651 L Walton 26
L Thompson 277 J Gibbons 3561 L Hart 26
D Hill 245 J Chadwick 3359 B Perriman 25

Green Bay Packers


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
B Favre 5021 B Favre 8219 B Favre 57500
B Starr 1808 B Starr 3149 B Starr 24718
L Dickey 1592 L Dickey 2831 L Dickey 21369
D Majkowski 889 T Rote 1854 T Rote 11535
T Rote 826 D Majkowski 1607 D Majkowski10870
R Wright 602 R Wright 1119 R Wright 7106
D Whitehurs 504 D Whitehurs 980 D Whitehurs 6205
J Hadl 280 B Parilli 602 B Parilli 3983
B Parilli 258 J Hadl 537 J Hadl 3167
Z Bratkowsk 220 S Hunter 446 Z Bratkowsk 3147

Passing TDs Interceptions
B Favre 414 B Favre 271
B Starr 152 L Dickey 151
L Dickey 133 B Starr 138
T Rote 89 T Rote 119
D Majkowski 56 B Parilli 61
B Parilli 31 R Wright 57
R Wright 31 D Majkowski 56
D Whitehurs 28 D Whitehurs 51
Z Bratkowsk 21 S Hunter 30
D Horn 16 J Hadl 29

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Taylor 1811 J Taylor 8207 J Taylor 81
A Green 1810 A Green 8162 A Green 53
J Brockingt 1293 J Brockingt 5024 P Hornung 50
T Canadeo 1025 T Canadeo 4197 J Brockingt 29
D Levens 1006 D Levens 3937 T Rote 29
E Bennett 936 G Ellis 3826 D Levens 28
P Hornung 893 P Hornung 3711 E Pitts 28
G Ellis 836 E Bennett 3353 T Canadeo 26
D Anderson 787 D Anderson 3165 G Ellis 25
E Ivery 667 E Ivery 2933 D Anderson 24

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
S Sharpe 595 J Lofton 9656 D Hutson 99
J Lofton 530 S Sharpe 8134 S Sharpe 65
D Hutson 488 D Hutson 7991 A Freeman 57
B Dowler 448 B Dowler 6918 M McGee 50
A Freeman 431 A Freeman 6651 J Lofton 49
D Driver 421 M McGee 6346 B Howton 43
A Green 347 D Driver 5929 B Dowler 40
M McGee 345 B Howton 5581 P Coffman 39
P Coffman 322 C Dale 5422 D Driver 36
W Henderson 320 R Brooks 4225 C Dale 35

Hou/Ten Oilers/Titans


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
W Moon 2632 W Moon 4546 W Moon 33685
S McNair 2305 S McNair 3871 S McNair 27141
D Pastorini 1426 G Blanda 2784 G Blanda 19149
G Blanda 1347 D Pastorini 2768 D Pastorini16864
K Stabler 458 P Beathard 822 K Stabler 5190
C Chandler 409 K Stabler 742 P Beathard 5128
P Beathard 379 C Chandler 676 C Chandler 4559
C Carlson 370 C Carlson 659 C Carlson 4469
B Volek 312 D Trull 556 D Trull 3538
G Nielsen 273 B Volek 517 B Volek 3505

Passing TDs Interceptions
W Moon 196 G Blanda 189
G Blanda 165 W Moon 166
S McNair 156 D Pastorini 139
D Pastorini 96 S McNair 102
C Chandler 33 P Beathard 51
D Trull 29 K Stabler 46
K Stabler 27 J Lee 30
P Beathard 26 C Carlson 28
B Volek 26 L Dickey 28
J Lee 25 G Nielsen 22

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
E George 2733 E George 10009 E Campbell 73
E Campbell 1979 E Campbell 8574 E George 64
L White 1000 L White 4079 S McNair 36
M Rozier 910 H Granger 3514 L White 29
C Tolar 907 S McNair 3451 M Rozier 27
H Granger 773 M Rozier 3426 W Moon 21
R Coleman 700 C Tolar 3277 C Tolar 21
S McNair 612 R Coleman 2769 A Pinkett 21
F Willis 603 A Pinkett 2324 H Granger 18
A Pinkett 561 C Brown 2295 R Coleman 16

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
E Givins 542 E Givins 7935 C Hennigan 51
H Jeffires 515 D Hill 7477 D Hill 47
F Wycheck 482 K Burrough 6906 K Burrough 47
D Hill 480 C Hennigan 6823 H Jeffires 47
D Mason 453 H Jeffires 6119 E Givins 46
C Hennigan 410 D Mason 6114 D Mason 37
K Burrough 408 F Wycheck 4958 B Groman 32
C Duncan 322 D Bennett 4033 F Wycheck 27
D Bennett 273 C Duncan 3935 D Bennett 25
E George 259 C Sanders 3285 C Frazier 22

Houston Texans


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Carr 1243 D Carr 2070 D Carr 13391
T Banks 76 T Banks 129 T Banks 882
S Rosenfels 27 D Ragone 40 S Rosenfels 265
D Ragone 20 S Rosenfels 39 D Ragone 135
J Gaffney 1 J Gaffney 5 J Gaffney 39
J Allen 1 J Allen 2 J Allen 5
V Morency 0 D Williams 1 V Morency 0
V Leach 0 S Mack 1 V Leach 0
S Gado 0 V Morency 0 S Gado 0
D Morgan 0 V Leach 0 D Morgan 0

Passing TDs Interceptions
D Carr 59 D Carr 65
T Banks 6 T Banks 5
S Rosenfels 3 S Rosenfels 1
J Gaffney 1 D Ragone 1
J Allen 1 S Mack 1
V Morency 0 V Morency 0
V Leach 0 V Leach 0
S Gado 0 S Gado 0
D Morgan 0 D Morgan 0
M Murphy 0 M Murphy 0

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
D Williams 770 D Williams 3195 D Williams 23
J Wells 374 D Carr 1233 J Wells 10
D Carr 269 J Wells 1167 D Carr 8
J Allen 155 R Dayne 612 R Dayne 5
R Dayne 151 J Allen 519 W Lundy 4
W Lundy 124 W Lundy 476 S Mack 4
S Mack 93 S Mack 253 V Morency 2
S Gado 54 S Gado 217 S Gado 1
V Morency 51 V Morency 197 C Taylor 1
T Hollings 49 T Hollings 149 V Leach 0

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
A Johnson 311 A Johnson 3953 C Bradford 18
J Gaffney 171 J Gaffney 2009 A Johnson 17
D Williams 154 C Bradford 1992 J Gaffney 7
C Bradford 130 D Williams 1276 B Miller 7
B Miller 108 B Miller 1146 D Williams 5
E Moulds 57 D Armstrong 605 O Daniels 5
J Allen 47 E Moulds 557 J Wells 2
D Armstrong 45 O Daniels 352 D Armstrong 2
J Wells 44 J Wells 323 M Bruener 2
O Daniels 34 J Allen 302 V Leach 1

Indy/Balt Colts


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
P Manning 3131 J Unitas 5110 J Unitas 39768
J Unitas 2796 P Manning 4890 P Manning 37586
B Jones 1382 B Jones 2464 B Jones 17663
J George 874 J Trudeau 1536 J Trudeau 9647
J Trudeau 812 J George 1532 J George 9551
J Harbaugh 746 J Harbaugh 1230 J Harbaugh 8705
M Pagel 587 M Pagel 1154 M Pagel 7474
E Morrall 363 E Morrall 676 E Morrall 5666
G Landry 308 M Domres 576 M Domres 3471
M Domres 293 G Landry 533 G Landry 3402

Passing TDs Interceptions
J Unitas 287 J Unitas 246
P Manning 275 P Manning 139
B Jones 122 B Jones 97
J Harbaugh 49 J Trudeau 62
E Morrall 47 M Pagel 47
J George 41 J George 46
J Trudeau 41 E Morrall 40
M Pagel 39 G Shaw 31
G Hogeboom 22 M Domres 31
G Shaw 21 J Harbaugh 26

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
E James 2188 E James 9226 E James 64
L Mitchell 1391 L Mitchell 5487 L Moore 63
M Faulk 1389 M Faulk 5320 T Matte 45
E Dickerson 1258 E Dickerson 5194 M Faulk 42
T Matte 1200 L Moore 5174 D McCauley 40
L Moore 1068 T Matte 4646 A Ameche 40
R McMillan 990 A Ameche 4045 E Dickerson 32
A Ameche 965 R McMillan 3876 L Mitchell 27
C Dickey 800 C Dickey 3490 C Dickey 26
D McCauley 770 J Hill 2668 R McMillan 24

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
M Harrison 1022 M Harrison 13697 M Harrison 122
R Berry 631 R Berry 9275 R Berry 68
B Brooks 411 L Moore 6039 J Orr 50
R Wayne 390 J Orr 5859 L Moore 48
L Moore 363 B Brooks 5818 J Mutschell 40
E James 356 R Wayne 5474 J Mackey 38
D McCauley 333 J Mackey 5126 R Wayne 37
J Mackey 320 R Carr 4770 M Pollard 35
J Orr 303 J Mutschell 3684 R Carr 29
L Mitchell 298 G Doughty 3547 B Brooks 28

Jacksonville Jaguars


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
M Brunell 2184 M Brunell 3616 M Brunell 25698
B Leftwich 789 B Leftwich 1344 B Leftwich 9042
D Garrard 313 D Garrard 539 D Garrard 3543
S Beuerlein 71 S Beuerlein 142 S Beuerlein 952
J Quinn 66 J Quinn 125 J Quinn 748
J Fiedler 61 J Fiedler 94 J Martin 662
J Martin 49 J Martin 78 J Fiedler 656
S Matthews 26 S Matthews 40 R Johnson 368
R Johnson 25 Q Gray 36 S Matthews 275
Q Gray 21 R Johnson 35 Q Gray 266

Passing TDs Interceptions
M Brunell 144 M Brunell 86
B Leftwich 51 B Leftwich 36
D Garrard 18 D Garrard 13
S Beuerlein 4 S Beuerlein 7
J Martin 4 J Quinn 4
J Quinn 3 R Johnson 3
Q Gray 2 J Fiedler 2
J Fiedler 2 J Martin 1
R Johnson 2 C Tillman 0
C Tillman 0 J Zelenka 0

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
F Taylor 2062 F Taylor 9513 F Taylor 56
J Stewart 765 J Stewart 2951 J Stewart 33
M Brunell 429 M Brunell 2219 S Mack 19
N Means 396 S Mack 1498 M Brunell 14
S Mack 372 N Means 1330 M Jones-Dre 13
G Jones 213 M Jones-Dre 941 N Means 11
M Jones-Dre 166 G Jones 737 B Leftwich 8
L Toefield 150 D Garrard 637 G Jones 7
B Leftwich 120 L Toefield 545 D Garrard 6
D Garrard 115 B Leftwich 364 L Toefield 6

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
J Smith 862 J Smith 12287 J Smith 67
K McCardell 499 K McCardell 6393 K McCardell 30
F Taylor 261 K Brady 2500 K Brady 13
K Brady 241 F Taylor 2205 E Wilford 11
P Mitchell 191 P Mitchell 2091 P Mitchell 11
J Stewart 119 E Wilford 1476 D Jones 11
R Williams 114 R Williams 1329 W Jackson 10
W Jackson 103 W Jackson 1281 M Jones 9
E Wilford 96 M Jones 1075 G Wrighster 8
T Edwards 85 T Edwards 1020 F Taylor 8

Kansas City Chiefs


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
L Dawson 2115 L Dawson 3696 L Dawson 28507
T Green 1720 T Green 2777 T Green 21459
B Kenney 1330 B Kenney 2430 B Kenney 17277
S Deberg 934 M Livingsto 1751 S Deberg 11873
M Livingsto 912 S Deberg 1616 M Livingsto11295
E Grbac 897 E Grbac 1548 E Grbac 10638
S Bono 594 S Bono 1075 S Bono 6489
J Montana 480 S Fuller 817 J Montana 5427
S Fuller 465 J Montana 791 S Fuller 5333
R Gannon 365 T Blackledg 742 C Davidson 4919

Passing TDs Interceptions
L Dawson 237 L Dawson 178
T Green 118 B Kenney 86
B Kenney 105 T Green 85
S Deberg 67 M Livingsto 83
E Grbac 66 S Deberg 50
M Livingsto 56 E Grbac 47
S Bono 37 C Davidson 39
C Davidson 32 T Blackledg 32
J Montana 29 S Fuller 32
T Blackledg 26 S Bono 27

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
P Holmes 1275 P Holmes 5933 P Holmes 76
C Okoye 1246 C Okoye 4897 L Johnson 47
E Podolak 1157 E Podolak 4451 M Allen 44
M Allen 932 L Johnson 4205 C Okoye 40
L Johnson 892 A Haynes 3814 A Haynes 39
A Haynes 794 M Allen 3698 E Podolak 34
C McClinton 762 M Garrett 3246 M Garrett 24
M Garrett 736 C McClinton 3124 T McKnight 22
W Hayes 668 H Heard 2694 C McClinton 18
H Heard 651 W Hayes 2560 W Hayes 18

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Gonzalez 721 T Gonzalez 8710 T Gonzalez 61
H Marshall 416 O Taylor 7306 O Taylor 57
O Taylor 410 H Marshall 6545 C Burford 55
C Burford 391 C Carson 6360 S Paige 49
S Paige 377 S Paige 6341 F Arbanas 34
K Anders 369 C Burford 5505 C Carson 33
C Carson 352 E Kennison 5129 H Marshall 33
E Kennison 308 D Alexander 3685 E Kennison 25
E Podolak 288 F Arbanas 3101 F Jackson 21
T McNair 254 W Davis 3014 W Davis 20

Miami Dolphins


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Marino 4967 D Marino 8358 D Marino 61361
B Griese 1926 B Griese 3429 B Griese 25092
J Fiedler 936 J Fiedler 1603 J Fiedler 11040
D Woodley 508 D Woodley 961 D Woodley 5928
D Strock 388 D Strock 688 D Strock 4613
G Frerotte 257 G Frerotte 494 G Frerotte 2996
J Harringto 223 J Harringto 388 E Morrall 2335
A Feeley 191 R Norton 377 J Harringto 2236
D Huard 170 A Feeley 356 A Feeley 1893
R Norton 156 D Huard 288 S Mitchell 1805

Passing TDs Interceptions
D Marino 420 D Marino 252
B Griese 192 B Griese 172
J Fiedler 66 J Fiedler 63
D Strock 39 D Woodley 42
D Woodley 34 D Strock 37
G Frerotte 18 R Norton 30
E Morrall 17 E Morrall 17
J Harringto 12 J Harringto 15
S Mitchell 12 A Feeley 15
A Feeley 11 D Wood 14

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
L Csonka 1506 L Csonka 6737 L Csonka 53
J Kiick 997 R Williams 3968 K Abdul-Jab 33
R Williams 943 M Morris 3877 R Williams 31
K Abdul-Jab 888 J Kiick 3644 M Morris 29
M Morris 754 T Nathan 3543 J Kiick 28
T Nathan 732 K Abdul-Jab 3063 D Nottingha 25
M Higgs 702 M Higgs 2648 L Hampton 22
D Williams 643 D Williams 2632 A Franklin 22
L Smith 622 A Franklin 2232 L Smith 20
A Franklin 622 B Malone 2129 N Bulaich 17

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
M Clayton 550 M Duper 8869 M Clayton 81
M Duper 511 M Clayton 8643 N Moore 74
N Moore 510 N Moore 7546 M Duper 59
O McDuffie 415 C Chambers 5273 C Chambers 43
T Nathan 383 O McDuffie 5074 P Warfield 33
C Chambers 374 D Harris 4534 O McDuffie 29
R McMichael 283 T Nathan 3592 B Hardy 25
D Harris 269 P Warfield 3355 J Mandich 23
B Hardy 256 O Gadsden 3252 H Twilley 23
J Jensen 229 I Fryar 3190 O Gadsden 22

Minnesota Vikings


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
F Tarkenton 2635 F Tarkenton 4569 F Tarkenton33098
T Kramer 2011 T Kramer 3648 T Kramer 24775
D Culpepper 1679 D Culpepper 2609 D Culpepper20168
B Johnson 1036 B Johnson 1670 W Wilson 12135
W Wilson 929 W Wilson 1665 B Johnson 11098
W Moon 882 W Moon 1454 W Moon 10102
R Gannon 561 R Gannon 1003 R Gannon 6457
R Cunningha 427 R Cunningha 713 R Cunningha 5680
J Kapp 351 J Kapp 699 J Kapp 4807
S Dils 336 S Dils 623 S Dils 3867

Passing TDs Interceptions
F Tarkenton 239 F Tarkenton 194
T Kramer 159 T Kramer 157
D Culpepper 135 D Culpepper 86
W Wilson 66 W Wilson 75
B Johnson 65 B Johnson 48
W Moon 58 J Kapp 47
R Cunningha 48 W Moon 42
R Gannon 40 R Gannon 36
J Kapp 37 R Cunningha 23
J George 23 G Cuozzo 23

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
B Brown 1627 R Smith 6818 B Brown 52
C Foreman 1533 C Foreman 5887 C Foreman 52
R Smith 1411 B Brown 5757 T Brown 40
D Osborn 1173 T Brown 4546 R Smith 32
T Brown 1117 D Osborn 4320 D Culpepper 29
D Nelson 981 D Nelson 4231 D Osborn 29
T Mason 761 T Mason 3252 T Mason 28
M Bennett 713 M Bennett 3174 L Hoard 26
T Allen 641 T Allen 2795 T Allen 23
A Anderson 626 F Tarkenton 2548 A Anderson 22

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
C Carter 1004 C Carter 12383 C Carter 110
R Moss 574 R Moss 9142 R Moss 90
S Jordan 498 A Carter 7636 A Carter 52
A Carter 478 J Reed 6433 S White 50
J Reed 413 S White 6400 A Rashad 34
A Rashad 400 S Jordan 6307 J Reed 33
S White 393 A Rashad 5489 S Jordan 28
T Brown 339 H Jones 3733 J Gilliam 27
C Foreman 336 J Gilliam 3297 H Jones 24
R Young 292 P Flatley 3222 B Brown 23

New England Patriots


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Bledsoe 2544 D Bledsoe 4518 D Bledsoe 29657
T Brady 1896 S Grogan 3593 S Grogan 26886
S Grogan 1879 T Brady 3064 T Brady 21564
B Parilli 1140 B Parilli 2413 B Parilli 16747
T Eason 876 J Plunkett 1503 T Eason 10732
J Plunkett 729 T Eason 1500 J Plunkett 9932
H Millen 370 M Taliaferr 680 H Millen 4276
M Taliaferr 305 H Millen 612 M Taliaferr 3920
B Songin 285 B Songin 604 B Songin 3905
M Wilson 214 M Wilson 415 M Cavanaugh 3018

Passing TDs Interceptions
S Grogan 182 S Grogan 208
D Bledsoe 166 B Parilli 138
T Brady 147 D Bledsoe 138
B Parilli 132 J Plunkett 87
J Plunkett 62 T Brady 78
T Eason 60 T Eason 48
B Songin 36 M Taliaferr 44
M Taliaferr 27 H Millen 28
M Cavanaugh 19 B Songin 24
H Millen 17 M Cavanaugh 23

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
S Cunningha 1385 S Cunningha 5453 J Nance 45
J Nance 1323 J Nance 5323 S Cunningha 43
T Collins 1191 T Collins 4647 C Dillon 37
C Martin 958 C Martin 3799 S Grogan 35
J Stephens 891 D Calhoun 3391 T Collins 32
D Calhoun 820 J Stephens 3249 C Martin 32
L Garron 759 C Dillon 3180 D Calhoun 23
C Dillon 753 L Garron 2981 A Smith 21
A Smith 721 A Smith 2781 M Tatupu 18
L Russell 689 C James 2469 J Stephens 17

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Brown 557 S Morgan 10352 S Morgan 67
S Morgan 534 T Brown 6366 B Coates 50
B Coates 490 I Fryar 5726 G Cappellet 42
I Fryar 363 B Coates 5471 J Colclough 39
T Glenn 329 J Colclough 5001 I Fryar 38
G Cappellet 292 T Glenn 4669 T Brown 31
J Colclough 283 G Cappellet 4589 R Francis 28
K Faulk 276 H Jackson 3162 L Garron 26
T Collins 261 R Francis 3157 R Vataha 23
V Brisby 217 V Brisby 3142 T Glenn 22

New Orleans Saints


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
A Manning 1849 A Manning 3335 A Manning 21734
A Brooks 1563 A Brooks 2771 A Brooks 19156
B Hebert 1202 B Hebert 2055 B Hebert 14630
J Everett 958 J Everett 1571 J Everett 10622
B Kilmer 592 B Kilmer 1116 B Kilmer 7490
D Wilson 551 D Wilson 1039 D Wilson 6987
D Brees 356 S Walsh 620 D Brees 4418
S Walsh 336 K Stabler 570 S Walsh 3879
K Stabler 326 D Brees 554 K Stabler 3670
B Tolliver 249 B Scott 500 B Tolliver 3343

Passing TDs Interceptions
A Brooks 120 A Manning 156
A Manning 115 A Brooks 84
B Hebert 85 B Hebert 75
J Everett 60 B Kilmer 62
B Kilmer 47 D Wilson 55
D Wilson 36 J Everett 48
D Brees 26 K Stabler 33
S Walsh 25 B Scott 28
K Stabler 17 R Todd 23
B Tolliver 15 S Walsh 22

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
D McAlliste 1298 D McAlliste 5586 D McAlliste 44
D Hilliard 1126 G Rogers 4267 D Hilliard 39
G Rogers 995 D Hilliard 4164 C Muncie 28
R Mayes 837 R Mayes 3408 T Galbreath 27
R Williams 814 C Muncie 3393 G Rogers 23
C Muncie 788 R Williams 3129 R Mayes 23
T Galbreath 760 T Galbreath 2865 M Bates 21
M Bates 678 M Bates 2554 A Manning 18
W Wilson 658 W Wilson 2462 R Williams 16
M Strachan 472 A Manning 2058 W Wilson 16

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
E Martin 532 E Martin 7854 J Horn 50
J Horn 523 J Horn 7622 E Martin 48
D Abramowic 309 D Abramowic 4875 D Abramowic 37
T Galbreath 284 H Brenner 3849 H Childs 27
Q Early 270 Q Early 3758 Q Early 25
H Brenner 267 H Childs 3224 D Stallwort 23
D Hilliard 249 W Chandler 2801 H Brenner 21
D McAlliste 212 D Stallwort 2791 D Parks 16
H Childs 207 M Haynes 2368 T Small 16
D Stallwort 195 D Parks 2254 J Tice 15

New York Giants


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
P Simms 2576 P Simms 4647 P Simms 33462
K Collins 1448 C Conerly 2833 C Conerly 19488
C Conerly 1418 K Collins 2474 K Collins 16873
F Tarkenton 1051 F Tarkenton 1898 F Tarkenton13905
D Brown 766 D Brown 1391 Y Tittle 10439
Y Tittle 731 Y Tittle 1308 D Brown 8806
E Manning 690 E Manning 1276 E Manning 8049
S Brunner 482 S Brunner 986 S Brunner 6121
C Morton 461 C Morton 884 C Morton 5734
N Snead 416 N Snead 713 N Snead 4644

Passing TDs Interceptions
P Simms 199 C Conerly 167
C Conerly 173 P Simms 157
F Tarkenton 103 F Tarkenton 72
Y Tittle 96 K Collins 70
K Collins 81 Y Tittle 68
E Manning 54 C Morton 49
D Brown 40 D Brown 49
E Morrall 32 S Brunner 48
C Morton 29 N Snead 45
S Brunner 28 E Manning 44

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
T Barber 2216 T Barber 10448 T Barber 55
R Hampton 1824 R Hampton 6897 R Hampton 49
J Morris 1318 J Morris 5296 J Morris 48
A Webster 1196 A Webster 4638 A Webster 39
R Johnson 1066 R Johnson 3836 O Anderson 35
D Kotar 900 F Gifford 3609 F Gifford 34
E Price 846 D Kotar 3380 R Johnson 33
F Gifford 840 E Price 3292 D Kotar 20
R Carpenter 737 R Carpenter 2572 E Price 20
O Anderson 704 J Morrison 2474 J Morrison 18

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Barber 586 A Toomer 8157 K Rote 48
A Toomer 561 F Gifford 5434 J Morrison 47
J Morrison 395 T Barber 5183 A Toomer 47
I Hilliard 368 J Morrison 4993 F Gifford 43
F Gifford 367 H Jones 4845 D Shofner 35
C Calloway 334 K Rote 4797 A Thomas 35
B Tucker 327 C Calloway 4710 H Jones 35
J Shockey 314 I Hilliard 4630 B Schnelker 29
K Rote 300 B Tucker 4376 M Bavaro 28
M Bavaro 266 D Shofner 4315 E Gray 27

New York Jets


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
K O'Brien 2039 J Namath 3655 J Namath 27057
J Namath 1836 K O'Brien 3465 K O'Brien 24386
R Todd 1433 R Todd 2623 R Todd 18241
V Testaverd 1094 V Testaverd 1854 V Testaverd12497
C Penningto 1081 C Penningto 1659 C Penningto11973
B Esiason 764 B Esiason 1302 B Esiason 8478
A Dorow 398 A Dorow 834 A Dorow 5399
N O'Donnell 369 D Wood 710 D Wood 4502
P Ryan 354 N O'Donnell 648 P Ryan 4222
D Wood 329 P Ryan 631 N O'Donnell 3943

Passing TDs Interceptions
J Namath 170 J Namath 215
K O'Brien 124 R Todd 138
R Todd 110 K O'Brien 95
V Testaverd 77 V Testaverd 58
C Penningto 72 A Dorow 56
B Esiason 49 C Penningto 46
A Dorow 45 D Wood 44
D Wood 35 B Esiason 39
P Ryan 31 P Ryan 31
N O'Donnell 21 M Robinson 26

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
C Martin 2560 C Martin 10302 C Martin 58
F McNeil 1798 F McNeil 8074 E Boozer 52
E Boozer 1291 E Boozer 5135 J Hector 41
M Snell 1057 M Snell 4285 F McNeil 38
J Hector 1051 J Hector 4280 B Mathis 37
B Mathis 1044 J Riggins 3880 B Baxter 35
J Riggins 928 B Mathis 3589 K Long 25
A Murrell 860 A Murrell 3447 J Riggins 25
B Baxter 779 B Baxter 2928 M Snell 24
S Dierking 731 S Dierking 2901 S Dierking 18

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
D Maynard 627 D Maynard 11732 D Maynard 88
W Chrebet 580 W Walker 8306 W Walker 71
A Toon 517 W Chrebet 7365 W Chrebet 41
W Walker 438 A Toon 6605 J Barkum 40
M Shuler 438 G Sauer 4965 M Shuler 37
C Martin 367 M Shuler 4819 R Caster 36
L Coles 334 J Barkum 4789 K Johnson 31
J Barkum 326 L Coles 4445 A Toon 31
G Sauer 309 R Caster 4434 G Sauer 28
R Moore 306 R Moore 4258 A Powell 27

Oakland/LA Raiders


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
R Gannon 1533 K Stabler 2481 K Stabler 19078
K Stabler 1486 R Gannon 2448 R Gannon 17585
D Lamonica 1138 D Lamonica 2248 D Lamonica 16655
J Plunkett 960 J Plunkett 1707 J Plunkett 12665
J Hostetler 913 M Wilson 1666 M Wilson 11760
M Wilson 871 T Flores 1640 T Flores 11635
T Flores 810 J Hostetler 1562 J Hostetler11122
J Schroeder 698 J Schroeder 1394 J Schroeder10276
K Collins 591 K Collins 1078 K Collins 7254
C Davidson 412 C Davidson 977 C Davidson 6532

Passing TDs Interceptions
K Stabler 150 K Stabler 143
D Lamonica 148 D Lamonica 115
R Gannon 114 M Wilson 86
T Flores 92 T Flores 83
J Plunkett 80 J Plunkett 81
M Wilson 77 C Davidson 63
J Hostetler 69 J Schroeder 62
J Schroeder 66 R Gannon 50
C Davidson 41 J Hostetler 49
K Collins 41 K Collins 32

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
M Allen 2090 M Allen 8545 M Allen 79
M VanEeghen 1475 M VanEeghen 5907 P Banaszak 47
C Daniels 1133 C Daniels 5103 M VanEeghen 35
N Kaufman 978 N Kaufman 4792 Z Crockett 35
P Banaszak 964 M Hubbard 4394 T Wheatley 32
T Wheatley 914 P Banaszak 3772 C Daniels 30
M Hubbard 913 T Wheatley 3682 C Davis 26
C Smith 858 C Davis 3640 C Smith 24
C Davis 804 C Smith 3351 M Hubbard 22
H Williams 804 H Williams 3094 H Williams 18

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
T Brown 1070 T Brown 14734 T Brown 99
F Biletniko 589 F Biletniko 8974 F Biletniko 76
C Branch 501 C Branch 8685 C Branch 67
T Christens 461 T Christens 5872 A Powell 50
M Allen 446 A Powell 4491 W Wells 42
J Jett 256 J Jett 4417 T Christens 41
D Casper 255 M Allen 4258 R Chester 37
A Powell 254 M Fernandez 3764 D Casper 35
J Rice 243 W Wells 3634 J Jett 30
J Porter 240 D Casper 3294 R Dudley 29

Philadelphia Eagles


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
R Jaworski 2088 R Jaworski 3918 R Jaworski 26963
D McNabb 1898 R Cunningha 3362 R Cunningha22877
R Cunningha 1874 D McNabb 3259 D McNabb 22080
N Snead 1154 N Snead 2236 N Snead 15672
R Gabriel 661 R Gabriel 1185 S Jurgensen 9639
S Jurgensen 602 B Thomason 1113 B Thomason 8124
B Thomason 556 S Jurgensen 1107 N VanBrockl 7497
N VanBrockl 542 N VanBrockl 998 R Gabriel 7221
A Burk 457 A Burk 960 A Burk 6203
R Peete 434 R Peete 756 R Peete 4945

Passing TDs Interceptions
R Jaworski 175 R Jaworski 151
D McNabb 152 N Snead 124
R Cunningha 150 R Cunningha 105
N Snead 111 B Thomason 80
S Jurgensen 76 A Burk 77
B Thomason 57 S Jurgensen 73
A Burk 55 D McNabb 72
N VanBrockl 55 K Hill 51
R Gabriel 47 N VanBrockl 51
K Hill 29 R Gabriel 37

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
W Montgomer 1465 W Montgomer 6538 S VanBuren 69
S VanBuren 1320 S VanBuren 5860 W Montgomer 45
D Staley 1200 D Staley 4807 R Cunningha 32
R Watters 975 R Cunningha 4482 R Watters 31
T Sullivan 871 R Watters 3794 T Brown 29
T Brown 850 T Brown 3703 D McNabb 24
T Woodeshic 831 T Woodeshic 3563 D Staley 22
C Peaks 786 B Westbrook 3452 T Woodeshic 21
K Byars 750 T Sullivan 3135 B Barnes 20
B Westbrook 736 C Peaks 2927 B Westbrook 20

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
H Carmichae 589 H Carmichae 8978 H Carmichae 79
P Retzlaff 452 P Retzlaff 7412 T McDonald 66
P Pihos 373 M Quick 6464 P Pihos 61
K Byars 371 P Pihos 5619 M Quick 61
M Quick 363 T McDonald 5499 P Retzlaff 47
B Walston 311 B Walston 5363 B Walston 46
F Barnett 308 B Hawkins 4764 C Williams 34
C Williams 295 F Barnett 4634 B Hawkins 32
T McDonald 287 C Williams 3840 F Barnett 28
D Staley 275 K Byars 3532 T Brown 26

Pittsburgh Steelers


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
T Bradshaw 2025 T Bradshaw 3901 T Bradshaw 27989
K Stewart 1190 K Stewart 2107 K Stewart 13328
N O'Donnell 1069 N O'Donnell 1871 N O'Donnell12867
B Brister 776 B Brister 1477 B Brister 10104
M Malone 690 J Finks 1382 B Layne 9030
J Finks 661 M Malone 1374 J Finks 8622
B Roethlisb 644 B Layne 1156 M Malone 8582
T Maddox 603 T Maddox 1036 B Roethlisb 8519
B Layne 569 B Roethlisb 1032 T Maddox 7139
M Tomczak 546 M Tomczak 973 M Tomczak 6649

Passing TDs Interceptions
T Bradshaw 212 T Bradshaw 210
K Stewart 70 J Finks 88
N O'Donnell 68 B Layne 81
B Layne 66 K Stewart 72
J Finks 55 M Malone 68
M Malone 54 B Brister 57
B Roethlisb 52 E Brown 50
B Brister 51 M Tomczak 43
T Maddox 42 B Roethlisb 43
E Brown 38 T Maddox 40

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
F Harris 2881 F Harris 11950 F Harris 91
J Bettis 2683 J Bettis 10571 J Bettis 78
D Hoak 1132 J Johnson 4381 K Stewart 35
J Johnson 1006 F Pollard 3989 T Bradshaw 32
F Pollard 953 D Hoak 3965 J Johnson 26
R Bleier 928 B Foster 3943 B Foster 26
B Foster 915 R Bleier 3865 D Hoak 25
F Rogel 900 W Abercromb 3343 R Bleier 23
W Abercromb 842 F Rogel 3271 W Abercromb 22
M Hoge 819 M Hoge 3115 J Fuqua 21

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
H Ward 648 J Stallwort 8723 J Stallwort 63
J Stallwort 537 H Ward 8005 H Ward 58
L Lipps 358 L Lipps 6018 L Swann 51
L Swann 336 L Swann 5462 B Dial 42
E Nickel 329 E Nickel 5131 L Lipps 39
F Harris 306 B Dial 4723 E Nickel 37
P Burress 262 P Burress 4164 R Mathews 34
C Johnson 247 R Mathews 3919 R Jefferson 29
M Hoge 241 R Jefferson 3671 J Smith 24
R Mathews 230 Y Thigpen 3651 R Shanklin 24

San Diego Chargers


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Fouts 3297 D Fouts 5604 D Fouts 43040
J Hadl 1824 J Hadl 3640 J Hadl 26938
S Humphries 1335 S Humphries 2350 S Humphries16085
D Brees 1125 D Brees 1809 D Brees 12348
D Flutie 408 J Kemp 815 J Kemp 5996
J Friesz 401 J Friesz 747 D Flutie 4901
J Kemp 389 D Flutie 737 J Friesz 4396
J Harbaugh 372 J Harbaugh 636 J Harbaugh 4177
B Tolliver 305 B Tolliver 595 B Tolliver 3671
P Rivers 301 R Leaf 567 T Rote 3666

Passing TDs Interceptions
D Fouts 254 D Fouts 242
J Hadl 201 J Hadl 211
S Humphries 85 S Humphries 73
D Brees 80 D Brees 53
J Kemp 37 J Kemp 49
T Rote 29 R Leaf 33
D Flutie 25 T Rote 32
P Rivers 23 C Whelihan 29
B Tolliver 21 J Harbaugh 24
J Friesz 19 B Tolliver 24

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
L Tomlinson 2050 L Tomlinson 9176 L Tomlinson 100
M Butts 1031 P Lowe 4972 C Muncie 43
P Lowe 1015 M Butts 4297 P Lowe 38
N Means 1013 N Means 3885 N Means 34
C Muncie 773 C Muncie 3309 M Butts 31
D Woods 713 D Woods 2858 T Spencer 19
K Lincoln 573 K Lincoln 2698 R Bernstine 17
M Garrett 572 D Post 2519 H Bauer 17
D Post 568 G Anderson 2250 C Williams 17
G Anderson 548 M Garrett 2235 D Post 17

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
C Joiner 586 L Alworth 9584 L Alworth 81
K Winslow 541 C Joiner 9203 G Garrison 58
L Alworth 493 G Garrison 7533 C Joiner 47
G Garrison 404 K Winslow 6741 K Winslow 45
L Tomlinson 398 W Chandler 6132 W Chandler 41
R Harmon 377 A Miller 5582 A Miller 37
A Miller 374 T Martin 4184 J Jefferson 36
W Chandler 373 R Harmon 3928 A Gates 34
T Martin 288 D Kocourek 3720 T Martin 33
A Gates 265 D Norton 3486 D Norton 27

San Francisco 49ers


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Montana 2929 J Montana 4600 J Montana 35124
J Brodie 2469 J Brodie 4491 J Brodie 31548
S Young 2400 S Young 3648 S Young 29907
J Garcia 1449 J Garcia 2360 J Garcia 16408
Y Tittle 1226 Y Tittle 2194 Y Tittle 16016
S Deberg 670 S Deberg 1201 S Deberg 7220
S Spurrier 441 S Spurrier 840 S Spurrier 5250
T Rattay 355 A Smith 607 T Rattay 3945
A Smith 341 F Albert 601 F Albert 3847
F Albert 316 T Rattay 585 A Smith 3765

Passing TDs Interceptions
J Montana 244 J Brodie 224
S Young 221 Y Tittle 134
J Brodie 214 J Montana 123
J Garcia 113 S Young 86
Y Tittle 108 S Deberg 60
S Deberg 37 J Garcia 56
S Spurrier 33 S Spurrier 48
F Albert 27 F Albert 43
T Rattay 24 J Plunkett 30
J Plunkett 22 A Smith 27

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
R Craig 1686 J Perry 7344 R Craig 50
K Willard 1582 R Craig 7064 J Perry 50
J Perry 1475 K Willard 5930 K Willard 45
G Hearst 1189 G Hearst 5535 S Young 37
J Smith 1007 J Smith 4370 J Smith 37
K Barlow 891 H McElhenny 4288 H McElhenny 35
H McElhenny 877 K Barlow 3614 G Hearst 26
W Jackson 745 S Young 3581 T Rathman 26
D Williams 669 W Tyler 3112 R Watters 25
R Watters 653 D Williams 2966 K Barlow 24

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
J Rice 1281 J Rice 19247 J Rice 176
T Owens 592 T Owens 8572 T Owens 81
R Craig 508 D Clark 6750 G Washingto 59
D Clark 506 G Washingto 6664 B Wilson 49
B Jones 417 B Wilson 5902 D Clark 48
B Wilson 407 J Taylor 5598 F Solomon 43
G Washingto 371 B Jones 5195 J Taylor 43
J Taylor 347 F Solomon 4873 B Jones 33
J Stokes 327 R Craig 4442 J Stokes 30
F Solomon 310 J Stokes 4139 B Casey 27

Seattle Seahawks


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
D Krieg 2096 D Krieg 3576 D Krieg 26132
J Zorn 1593 J Zorn 2990 J Zorn 20122
M Hasselbec 1539 M Hasselbec 2547 M Hasselbec18221
R Mirer 814 R Mirer 1523 R Mirer 9094
J Kitna 658 J Kitna 1130 J Kitna 7552
W Moon 458 W Moon 786 W Moon 5310
J Friesz 228 K Stouffer 437 J Friesz 2971
K Stouffer 225 J Friesz 416 T Dilfer 2560
T Dilfer 196 T Dilfer 356 K Stouffer 2333
S Gelbaugh 131 S Gelbaugh 273 J Kemp 1735

Passing TDs Interceptions
D Krieg 195 D Krieg 148
M Hasselbec 112 J Zorn 133
J Zorn 107 M Hasselbec 72
J Kitna 49 R Mirer 56
R Mirer 41 J Kitna 45
W Moon 36 W Moon 24
J Friesz 16 K Stouffer 19
T Dilfer 13 J Kemp 18
S Wallace 9 S Myer 14
J Kemp 9 T Dilfer 14

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
S Alexander 1969 S Alexander 8713 S Alexander 96
C Warner 1649 C Warren 6706 C Warner 55
C Warren 1559 C Warner 6705 C Warren 44
J Williams 1148 J Williams 4579 S Smith 28
R Watters 994 R Watters 4009 R Watters 22
S Smith 810 S Smith 3429 D Fenner 19
D Doornink 463 D Doornink 1530 D Sims 19
M Morris 332 J Zorn 1491 J Zorn 17
D Fenner 317 M Morris 1410 J Williams 17
J Zorn 308 L Smith 1286 D Doornink 14

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
S Largent 819 S Largent 13089 S Largent 100
B Blades 581 B Blades 7620 D Jackson 47
J Williams 471 D Jackson 6445 J Galloway 37
D Jackson 441 J Galloway 4457 D Turner 36
J Galloway 283 J Williams 4151 B Blades 34
B Engram 258 S McCullum 3409 S McCullum 21
S McCullum 232 B Engram 3223 J Williams 16
K Robinson 213 K Robinson 3167 J Stevens 15
S Smith 211 S Smith 2342 R Butler 13
M Strong 209 M Pritchard 2288 I Mili 13

St. Louis/LA Rams


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Everett 1847 R Gabriel 3313 J Everett 23758
R Gabriel 1705 J Everett 3277 R Gabriel 22223
M Bulger 1357 M Bulger 2106 M Bulger 16233
K Warner 1121 N VanBrockl 1897 N VanBrockl16114
N VanBrockl 1011 K Warner 1688 K Warner 14447
B Waterfiel 814 B Waterfiel 1617 B Waterfiel11849
P Haden 731 P Haden 1363 V Ferragamo 9376
V Ferragamo 730 V Ferragamo 1288 P Haden 9296
T Banks 685 T Banks 1263 B Wade 8572
B Wade 603 B Wade 1116 T Banks 8333

Passing TDs Interceptions
R Gabriel 154 B Waterfiel 128
J Everett 142 N VanBrockl 127
N VanBrockl 118 J Everett 123
K Warner 102 R Gabriel 112
B Waterfiel 97 V Ferragamo 71
M Bulger 95 B Wade 68
V Ferragamo 70 K Warner 65
B Wade 56 P Haden 60
P Haden 52 M Bulger 59
T Banks 36 T Banks 42

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
E Dickerson 1525 E Dickerson 7245 M Faulk 58
M Faulk 1447 M Faulk 6959 E Dickerson 56
L McCutcheo 1435 L McCutcheo 6186 D Towler 43
D Bass 1218 D Bass 5417 D Bass 34
C Bryant 802 D Towler 3493 W Tyler 33
L Josephson 797 L Josephson 3407 T Younger 31
J Bettis 796 T Younger 3296 G Bell 31
S Jackson 734 W Tyler 3266 R Gabriel 28
W Tyler 720 S Jackson 3247 D Hoerner 28
J Arnett 688 C Bryant 3119 S Jackson 25

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
I Bruce 887 I Bruce 13376 I Bruce 80
T Holt 712 T Holt 10675 T Holt 64
H Ellard 593 H Ellard 9761 E Hirsch 53
M Faulk 470 E Hirsch 6299 H Ellard 48
T Fears 400 J Snow 6012 J Snow 45
E Hirsch 343 T Fears 5397 J Benton 42
J Snow 340 F Anderson 5246 T Fears 38
J Phillips 333 J Phillips 4953 H Jackson 36
J Benton 275 J Benton 4566 B Boyd 28
F Anderson 259 M Faulk 4071 J Phillips 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
V Testaverd 1126 V Testaverd 2160 V Testaverd14820
T Dilfer 1117 T Dilfer 2038 T Dilfer 12969
B Johnson 1040 D Williams 1890 D Williams 12648
D Williams 895 B Johnson 1683 B Johnson 10940
S Deberg 813 S Deberg 1414 S Deberg 9439
C Erickson 473 C Erickson 882 C Erickson 6094
S King 368 S King 654 S King 4064
B Griese 345 B Griese 510 B Griese 3768
C Simms 291 S Young 501 J Thompson 3243
J Thompson 274 C Simms 492 S Young 3217

Passing TDs Interceptions
V Testaverd 77 V Testaverd 112
D Williams 73 T Dilfer 80
T Dilfer 70 D Williams 73
B Johnson 64 S Deberg 62
S Deberg 61 B Johnson 41
C Erickson 34 C Erickson 31
B Griese 27 J Thompson 26
S King 26 S Young 21
J Thompson 20 S King 20
C Simms 12 B Griese 19

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Wilder 1575 J Wilder 5957 M Alstott 58
M Alstott 1359 M Alstott 5088 J Wilder 37
W Dunn 1070 W Dunn 4200 E Rhett 24
R Cobb 878 M Pittman 3076 R Cobb 21
E Rhett 823 R Cobb 3061 W Dunn 17
R Bell 820 R Bell 3057 R Bell 16
M Pittman 730 E Rhett 2853 L Tate 15
J Eckwood 515 C Williams 1976 D Williams 13
C Williams 515 J Eckwood 1845 M Pittman 10
G Anderson 321 G Anderson 1159 J Owens 8

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
J Wilder 430 M Carrier 5018 J Giles 34
M Carrier 321 K House 4928 K House 31
M Alstott 305 J Giles 4300 M Carrier 27
K Johnson 298 K Johnson 3828 D Moore 24
K House 286 J Wilder 3492 B Hill 23
J Giles 279 G Carter 3443 J Galloway 22
W Dunn 259 B Hill 2942 G Carter 17
M Pittman 258 L Dawsey 2842 K Johnson 17
G Carter 239 J Galloway 2760 R Anthony 16
R Hall 209 C Hawkins 2744 M Owens 14

Washington Redskins


Completions Pass attempts Passing yards
J Theismann 2044 J Theismann 3602 J Theismann25206
S Jurgensen 1831 S Jurgensen 3155 S Jurgensen22585
S Baugh 1693 S Baugh 2995 S Baugh 21886
M Rypien 1244 M Rypien 2207 M Rypien 15928
B Kilmer 953 B Kilmer 1791 B Kilmer 12352
G Frerotte 744 G Frerotte 1422 G Frerotte 9769
B Johnson 543 E LeBaron 1104 N Snead 8306
M Brunell 542 N Snead 1092 E LeBaron 8068
E LeBaron 539 J Schroeder 1017 J Schroeder 7445
N Snead 531 M Brunell 951 B Johnson 6510

Passing TDs Interceptions
S Baugh 187 S Baugh 203
S Jurgensen 179 J Theismann 138
J Theismann 160 S Jurgensen 116
B Kilmer 103 E LeBaron 88
M Rypien 101 M Rypien 75
E LeBaron 59 B Kilmer 75
G Frerotte 48 N Snead 71
N Snead 46 G Frerotte 44
J Schroeder 39 R Guglielmi 40
M Brunell 38 H Gilmer 38

Rushes Rushing yards Rushing TDs
J Riggins 1988 J Riggins 7472 J Riggins 79
L Brown 1530 L Brown 5875 S Davis 45
S Davis 1383 S Davis 5790 T Allen 37
T Allen 1043 T Allen 4086 L Brown 35
E Byner 990 E Byner 3950 G Rogers 31
M Thomas 878 M Thomas 3359 E Byner 25
C Portis 822 C Portis 3354 C Portis 23
D Bosseler 775 D Bosseler 3112 D Bosseler 22
C Harraway 719 G Rogers 2909 G Riggs 21
G Rogers 697 C Harraway 2659 C Harraway 20

Receptions Receiving yards Receiving TDs
A Monk 888 A Monk 12026 C Taylor 79
C Taylor 649 C Taylor 9110 A Monk 65
G Clark 549 G Clark 8742 J Smith 60
J Smith 421 B Mitchell 6492 H Taylor 58
R Sanders 414 R Sanders 5854 G Clark 58
B Mitchell 393 J Smith 5496 B Mitchell 49
M Westbrook 277 H Taylor 5233 R Sanders 36
H Taylor 272 M Westbrook 4280 M Westbrook 24
D Warren 244 H Ellard 3930 R Gardner 22
L Brown 238 R Jefferson 3119 J Fugett 21

13 Comments | Posted in History

Kickers’ records in close games

Posted by Doug on March 19, 2007

Last week I posted coaching records in games decided by three points or less. Commenter "ABW" sparked some interesting discussion in the comments by speculating that teams' records in close games had a lot to do with the performance of the kicker. So let's take a quick look at the data on that.

First, a regression. I looked at all team seasons from 1980--2005 and I used two input variables: (1) the team's field goal percentage (minus the league average field goal percentage) for that season, and (2) the team's record in non-close games for that season, with a "close" game again being imperfectly defined as one which was ultimately decided by three points or less. The output variable is the team's record in close games.

The results:

  • The team's record in non-close games was insignificant, and close enough to zero that it wouldn't have been practically significant even if it had been statistically significant.
  • The team's annual field goal percentage was statistically significant (p=.02), but was fairly small: .27. So if a team could increase their field goal percentage by .10 --- say from .75 to .85, which is a pretty substantial increase --- they could expect to increase their close game winning percentage by .027. That's about one win for every 37 close games played. To summarize: there seems to be a real relationship between kicking accuracy and close game winning percentage, but the magnitude of that effect is very small.
  • The regression had an R^2 of .012. No that's not a typo, it's just a really low R^2. Loosely stated, this means any attempt (well, any simple linear attempt) to predict close game winning percentage from kicking accuracy and general team quality (i.e. non-close game winning percentage) is not going to be noticeably better than twirling a coin.

In case you're curious, here are the league field goal percentages.


Year LgFG%
============
1980 64.2
1981 66.1
1982 68.6
1983 71.6
1984 71.7
1985 72.2
1986 68.6
1987 70.4
1988 71.7
1989 72.5
1990 74.4
1991 73.5
1992 72.6
1993 76.6
1994 78.9
1995 77.4
1996 80.0
1997 78.1
1998 79.6
1999 77.6
2000 79.8
2001 76.4
2002 77.7
2003 79.3
2004 80.9
2005 81.1

Finally, here are the close game records of some kickers. I only have kicking data from 1980--2005, so this will contain partial careers for anyone whose career started before 1980 or ended after 2005. Also, since I don't have game-by-game records for kickers, I've given full credit (or blame) for all the close games in each team season to the kicker who attempted the most field goals for that team in that season. That's going to miscount some games, but it's the best I can do. The list includes all kickers who, according to the estimates detailed above, were involved in 20 or more close games.

If you read the top part of the post, you can probably guess that I don't think this list is worth much, except possibly as a source of fun trivia.


ClsGms CGWin%
==================================
Mark Moseley 21 0.714
Paul Edinger 21 0.714
Adam Vinatieri 38 0.684
Raul Allegre 21 0.667
Dean Biasucci 28 0.643
Kevin Butler 44 0.636
Rich Karlis 33 0.621
Norm Johnson 56 0.607
Olindo Mare 38 0.605
Pete Stoyanovich 45 0.600
Mike Vanderjagt 27 0.593
Jay Feely 23 0.587
Matt Bahr 61 0.582
Steve Christie 55 0.582
Michael Husted 26 0.577
Jeff Jaeger 47 0.574
Gary Anderson 58 0.569
Joe Nedney 37 0.568
Ryan Longwell 32 0.562
Chris Bahr 40 0.550
Fuad Reveiz 33 0.545
Jim Breech 35 0.543
Rafael Septien 24 0.542
Pat Leahy 41 0.537
Scott Norwood 28 0.536
Chris Boniol 29 0.534
Mike Lansford 23 0.522
Mike Cofer 27 0.519
Morten Andersen 97 0.515
Chris Jacke 35 0.514
Chip Lohmiller 34 0.500
David Akers 24 0.500
John Carney 65 0.492
John Hall 43 0.488
Mike Hollis 27 0.481
Doug Brien 27 0.481
Jason Hanson 48 0.479
Greg Davis 36 0.472
Cary Blanchard 34 0.471
David Treadwell 30 0.467
Todd Peterson 43 0.453
Roger Ruzek 20 0.450
Paul McFadden 27 0.444
Tony Zendejas 27 0.444
Martin Gramatica 25 0.440
Al Del Greco 67 0.433
Jan Stenerud 22 0.432
Jason Elam 49 0.429
Ray Wersching 27 0.426
Sebastian Janikowski 26 0.423
Jeff Wilkins 34 0.412
Kris Brown 27 0.407
Mick Luckhurst 21 0.405
John Kasay 55 0.400
Phil Dawson 25 0.400
Tony Franklin 28 0.393
Doug Pelfrey 26 0.385
Nick Lowery 65 0.385
Eddie Murray 64 0.383
Rolf Benirschke 21 0.381
Matt Stover 64 0.352
Donald Igwebuike 24 0.333

7 Comments | Posted in General

Coaching records in close games

Posted by Doug on March 16, 2007

Several months ago a reader emailed and asked me if I could post coach's records in games decided by 3 points or less. Well, I lost that email and I'm sure the emailer has lost hope of my ever getting around to it. But here I am, against all odds, finally getting around to it.

The following is a list consisting of all coaches who (a) coached at any point after 1950, and (b) coached in at least 64 total games. N represents the number of non-close games he coached in his career, C is the number of close games, and CWin% is his winning percentage in the close ones.

Winning percentage in games decided by 3 points or less


N C CWin%
=====================================
Vince Tobin 58 22 0.727
John Madden 112 30 0.717
Charley Winner 83 15 0.700
Nick Skorich 80 18 0.694
Joe Gibbs 138 46 0.674
Bobby Ross 117 27 0.667
John Rauch 61 9 0.667
Jim Lee Howell 69 15 0.667
Tony Dungy 135 41 0.659
Mike Holovak 92 16 0.656
Ray Rhodes 56 24 0.646
Jim Hanifan 75 18 0.639
Art Shell 78 30 0.633
Lawrence Shaw 81 15 0.633
Pete Carroll 45 19 0.632
Steve Mariucci 120 24 0.625
Mike Holmgren 185 55 0.618
George Halas 376 99 0.616
Marv Levy 191 64 0.609
Mike Sherman 73 23 0.609
Bill Parcells 226 77 0.604
Jack Patera 81 20 0.600
Ray Malavasi 65 20 0.600
George Allen 133 35 0.586
Bum Phillips 122 41 0.585
Joe Walton 93 18 0.583
Forrest Gregg 125 37 0.581
Sam Rutigliano 74 31 0.581
Jim Fassel 87 25 0.580
Steve Owen 211 50 0.580
Ron Meyer 104 19 0.579
Jerry Glanville 103 26 0.577
Don Shula 392 98 0.571
Mike Ditka 167 49 0.571
Bill Cowher 190 50 0.570
Jimmy Johnson 114 30 0.567
Jim Haslett 73 23 0.565
Allie Sherman 89 23 0.565
Dick Jauron 69 32 0.562
Wally Lemm 118 17 0.559
Dick Nolan 132 28 0.554
Mike McCormack 62 19 0.553
Don Coryell 164 39 0.551
Sam Wyche 152 39 0.538
Marvin Lewis 51 13 0.538
Bud Grant 193 66 0.538
John Robinson 115 28 0.536
Jack Christiansen 53 14 0.536
Tom Flores 141 43 0.535
Dave Wannstedt 131 45 0.533
Mike Tice 51 15 0.533
Neill Armstrong 49 15 0.533
Marty Schottenheimer 251 76 0.533
Jack Del Rio 47 17 0.529
Lou Saban 178 46 0.522
Ted Marchibroda 135 51 0.520
Tom Landry 344 74 0.514
Dan Reeves 266 94 0.511
Mike Shanahan 173 51 0.510
Jack Pardee 126 44 0.500
Vince Lombardi 108 28 0.500
Wayne Fontes 107 26 0.500
Alex Webster 55 15 0.500
Herman Edwards 72 24 0.500
Raymond Parker 149 39 0.500
John Fox 54 26 0.500
Mike Martz 78 18 0.500
Raymond Berry 67 20 0.500
Jeff Fisher 144 55 0.491
Jon Gruden 97 47 0.489
Dennis Green 163 45 0.489
Brian Billick 97 31 0.484
Joe Kuharich 114 28 0.482
Weeb Ewbank 217 49 0.480
Jim Mora 174 65 0.477
Bill Belichick 150 42 0.476
Curly Lambeau 299 75 0.473
Norm VanBrocklin 142 37 0.473
Ray Perkins 88 32 0.469
Paul Brown 227 45 0.467
Chuck Knox 264 70 0.464
Barry Switzer 51 13 0.462
Walt Michaels 62 25 0.460
Bill McPeak 58 12 0.458
Buddy Ryan 75 36 0.458
Greasy Neale 99 12 0.458
Rich Kotite 74 22 0.455
Andy Reid 95 33 0.455
Bruce Coslet 107 31 0.452
Sid Gillman 200 37 0.446
Pop Ivy 69 9 0.444
Blanton Collier 103 9 0.444
Bart Starr 105 26 0.442
George Wilson 126 34 0.441
Harland Svare 63 17 0.441
John Ralston 53 17 0.441
Wade Phillips 59 25 0.440
Tommy Prothro 84 16 0.438
Jerry Burns 72 23 0.435
Lindy Infante 68 28 0.429
Bill Walsh 115 37 0.419
John McKay 96 37 0.419
Hank Stram 195 43 0.419
Dick Vermeil 178 51 0.412
Leeman Bennett 87 32 0.406
Tom Coughlin 133 43 0.395
Chuck Noll 285 57 0.395
Howard Hickey 57 9 0.389
Joe Schmidt 67 17 0.382
Dan Henning 84 28 0.375
Butch Davis 48 16 0.375
George Seifert 133 43 0.372
Dom Capers 101 27 0.370
Dennis Erickson 74 22 0.364
David Shula 58 22 0.364
Walt Kiesling 78 21 0.357
Norv Turner 106 38 0.355
John Mackovic 46 18 0.333
Marion Campbell 100 29 0.328
Chuck Fairbanks 70 16 0.312
Monte Clark 88 31 0.306
Joe Bugel 61 19 0.263

I'm not sure what to make of these numbers, but they're kind of fun I guess.

Given the sample sizes, only a few of these close winning percentages appear to be clearly different from chance. And in a group this big, you expect for a few people to appear different from chance even if there is no real effect. Furthermore, the correlation between close-game winning percentage and non-close-game winning percentage is only .14 (and not significantly different from zero). So my five-minute assessment of the situation is that close-game winning percentage probably says more about the good or bad luck the coach experienced rather than about the coach himself.

12 Comments | Posted in General

Bracketology update

Posted by Doug on March 15, 2007

On Monday I offered a few thoughts about how to fill in your tournament brackets.

My interest in the issue is mainly theoretical (I am a mathematician, after all). If the entries in your pool satisfy a certain assumption, then it's reasonable to conclude something about your optimal strategy. It's an interesting mathematical problem with what I think is an elegant solution. But I have to admit that, other than just making sure it passed the sniff test, I didn't give a whole lot of thought to the reasonableness of the assumption.

Blog reader Patrick L. sent me some data from his office pool which indicates that people tend to overbet high seeds in these pools. This is the percentage of people whose entry includes a national champion of the given seed. OP is Patrick's office pool, TS is the implied probabilities from tradesports.com, and Hist is the historical frequencies:

                  OP      TS    Hist
#1 seeds 59% 53% 55%
#2 seeds 38% 23% 18%
everyone else 3% 24% 27%

Also, Yahoo's contest entry distributions are now posted, and they are even heavier on #1 seeds: 64/23/13.

In light of this, Patrick suggests that picking a #3 or #4 seed to win it all may be the optimal strategy. That seems believable to me.

Yahoo's distributions show further evidence of overbetting on favorites. Texas was picked in the first round by 97% of yahoo's entrants, whereas the Vegas odds imply that they have only about a 79% chance of beating New Mexico State. Virginia Tech (a #5 seed) was picked by 71% of the entrants over Illinois (#12) despite only having a 57% chance of winning according to the Vegas odds. The former is probably due to Kevin Durant's likeness being plastered all over everything for the last few weeks. The latter is probably due to an over-reliance on seedings instead of other objective measures like computer rankings or Vegas lines, as was mentioned in the comments to Monday's post.

2 Comments | Posted in Non-football

2006 QB in Review

Posted by Chase Stuart on March 14, 2007

Over the summer, we looked at the worst and best passers since the NFL merger. With 2006 in the books, a supplement to those blogs became necessary.

As a group, NFL QBs averaged 5.825 adjusted yards per attempt in 2006, which is in line with prior data. For those needing a quick refresher, here's how we score each QB. Adjusted yards per attempt is calculated by taking a QB's passing yards, subtracting 45 yards for every INT, adding 10 yards for every passing TD, and dividing by total pass attempts. Then we take the difference between the individual's adjusted yards per attempt and the league average, and multiply by total attempts (this is because a great QB that throws 500 times is more valuable than a great QB that throws 400 times.)

Here's a list of how many points each QB scored last year (only those with 100 attempts shown here):


1058 Peyton Manning 7.72
956 Drew Brees 7.55
756 Marc Bulger 7.11
716 Donovan McNabb 8.09
701 Carson Palmer 7.17
545 Tony Romo 7.44
524 Philip Rivers 6.96
522 Damon Huard 7.96
233 Kurt Warner 7.21
224 Jeff Garcia 7.02
223 Tom Brady 6.26
175 Mark Brunell 6.50
112 J.P. Losman 6.09
110 Tim Rattay 6.91
68 Jay Cutler 6.32
33 Daunte Culpepper 6.07
26 David Garrard 5.93
-23 Chad Pennington 5.78
-31 Jake Delhomme 5.75
-44 Jon Kitna 5.75
-56 Steve McNair 5.71
-62 Byron Leftwich 5.49
-74 Ben Roethlisberger 5.67
-79 Jason Campbell 5.44
-79 Matt Leinart 5.62
-110 Drew Bledsoe 5.17
-129 Seneca Wallace 4.91
-146 Trent Green 5.09
-171 Michael Vick 5.38
-199 Derek Anderson 4.13
-214 Matt Hasselbeck 5.25
-238 David Carr 5.29
-245 Alex Smith 5.27
-273 Rex Grossman 5.26
-316 Brett Favre 5.31
-328 Jake Plummer 4.79
-337 Chris Simms 2.64
-343 Aaron Brooks 4.04
-346 Vince Young 4.86
-367 Eli Manning 5.12
-392 Brad Johnson 4.93
-486 Andrew Walter 4.07
-494 Charlie Frye 4.56
-565 Bruce Gradkowski 4.10
-579 Joey Harrington 4.33

Thoughts
Jay Cutler played better than Jake Plummer, yet some people still pin the Broncos lost post-season hopes on the mid-season switch. I maintain that the real error was not making the switch soon enough.

Damon Huard had an incredible year, while Trent Green was below average. Tony Romo played better than I remembered. The Eagles three QBs (1091) actually topped Manning, who was the only Colts QB to throw a pass in 2006. Jason Campbell wasn't half bad, but Mark Brunell was better. Matt Leinart wasn't as good as Kurt Warner, and Alex Smith was only good compared to his 2005 version. Rex Grossman, Brett Favre and Eli Manning are polarizing figures, but all of them were below average passers in 2006. And Joey Harrington is still terrible (more on this later).

Changes to the All Time list
Peyton Manning now has 5,985 career points of value, vaulting him from 7th to 4th all time. Kurt Warner and Trent Green flip-flopped, and Warner is now 8th and Green 9th on the career list. Brett Favre continued his free-fall, from 15th to now 20th on the list; conversely, Marc Bulger jumped up from 31st to 21st. Donovan McNabb leaped from 52nd to 29th. Matt Hasselbeck was 28th and Drew Brees 81st before the season began; now they're 42nd and 43rd, respectively. And Carson Palmer snuck into the top fifty.

On to the negative side: Mike Vick dropped to below average for his career with a bad 2006. Drew Bledsoe continues to slide, and is at -574 for his career. Charlie Frye (-671), Alex Smith (-809), Eli Manning (-850) and David Carr (-988) have some work to do to resurrect their careers.

Jake Plummer (-1425), Kerry Collins (-1461) and Jon Kitna (-1495) continue to produce below average work but are always given another chance. At least Kitna was just about average last year.

And then there was Joey. After another miserable season, Harrington now stands as The Worst QB Of All Time (-2,953). This was Harrington's third season of negative 500 points or greater (fewer?). Rick Mirer, you have been surpassed.

2006 Notables, under 100 pass attempts: Charlie Batch (+233), A.J. Feeley (+151), Kyle Boller (+125), Chris Weinke (-94), Tarvaris Jackson (-157) and Kerry Collins (-235) all had significant impacts despite limited playing time. And Brodie Croyle (-108) got into the triple digits on only seven pass attempts; he was 3/7 for 23 yards with two interceptions.

18 Comments | Posted in Statgeekery

How to fill out your brackets

Posted by Doug on March 12, 2007

So you're not much of a college basketball fan. You follow your alma mater, and possibly keep loose tabs on the rest of their conference, but that's about as far as it goes. But the tourney is good entertainment and, as is customary, you enter a bracket pool so you can have a rooting interest where none would otherwise exist. How do you maximize your chances winning the thing?

If you're like me, the first thing you do is you head someplace like this smorgasboard of computer ranking algorithms and check out a few of them to get a quick feel for which teams appear to be over- or under-seeded. Some of them even do the work for you by putting a specific probability estimate on each team's chances of advancing to each round.

Whatever the rules of your bracket pool, you probably get some sort of score associated with your entry. And the highest score wins. In most pools, you can use estimates like those above to compute (at least approximately) the expected score of each possible entry. Now simply find the entry with the highest expected score and turn it in.

That's what I used to do. Only recently did I realize that that's wrong. Maximizing your expected score is not the same as maximizing your chance of having the highest score. Your goal is the latter, not the former.

To see why they're not the same, imagine a simple pool where you are simply trying to pick the winner of the tournament. Let's say that in the very likely event of a tie, the winner will be selected randomly from among those who correctly picked the champion. You believe these are the probabilities of each team winning the tourney:

Ohio State: 25%
UCLA: 20%
Kansas: 15%
UNC: 15%
Florida: 10%
Texas A&M: 10%
Washington State: 5%

The "score" of your entry in this simple pool is either one or zero, depending on whether you pick the champ correctly or not. So the entry with the highest expected score is Ohio State. But Ohio State might or might not be the entry that maximizes your chance of winning the pool. It depends on who everyone else picked. If you were the only Buckeye-picker, then great. But if 90% of the other pool participants picked Ohio State, then you'd be better off picking Washington State.

So, while Ohio State is the "best" pick in some sense, it's also likely to be a "crowded" pick, and that's the problem. You may be better off going with a "worse" pick, if it's a pick that's less popular. That's a simple example, but the same issues are present in a real pool. Even if there aren't necessarily ties, the best picks are also going to be the most popular picks, and that's going to cause the same kind of crowding. If you pick the entry that you believe is most likely to occur, then there will be lots of other entries that look very similar to yours. This is problematic because you know you're going to miss on a lot of games. And if your entry is too centrist, it's likely that there will be an entry that looks just like it except that it got a few of the games you missed.

The other extreme is to pick an entry with Cinderellas and longshots aplenty. This avoids the crowding problem. With a wacky entry, even if you miss a lot of games, there are not likely to be many entries close to yours to capitalize on your mistakes. The problem here is that, if you turn in a wacky entry, you probably won't end up being even close. That's what makes it a wacky entry.

To make this a little more concrete, imagine two extreme strategies:

Strategy #1: pick a final four with two #1 seeds, a #2 seed and a #3 seed.
Strategy #2: pick a final four with two #9 seeds and two #7 seeds.

The upside of Strategy #1 you're very likely to hit at least a couple of the final four teams. The downside is that, if your final four hits, you're probably not the only one who has it.

The upside of Strategy #2 is that, even if you just get one or two of the final four teams correct, you're probably still doing better than everyone else. The downside is that you're not likely to hit even one.

And of course you don't have to be at one extreme or the other. There is a continuum of possibilities in between. So where do you want to position yourself? You can't answer that question unless you know what the other entries in your pool look like, and you're probably not going to know that. So you have to make some assumptions.

If it's a big contest with a mixture of hardcore and casual fans, I think it's reasonable to expect that the entries will generally cluster around the most likely outcomes, but that there will be some longshot entries mixed in. With that in mind, I'm going to make the following assumption:

Assume the entries in your pool are distributed the same as the distribution of actual outcomes of the tournament.

Roughly speaking, what this means is that, if you think Ohio State as a 25% chance of winning the tourney, then about 25% of the pool's participants will pick Ohio State to win it. If you think there is a 1% chance of a final four consisting of Florida, UCLA, Texas A&M, and Georgetown, then about 1% of the pool's entries will have that for a Final Four. If you think Virginia Tech has a 59% chance of beating Illinois in the first round, then around 59% of the entries will have Virginia Tech beating Illinois. And so on.

Is this a reasonable assumption? I think it's at least in the ballpark. Yahoo.com publishes the entries in its Tournament pick 'em contest and they match up reasonably well with objectively-generated probabilities (e.g. from Sagarin ratings and the like). Not perfectly, but reasonably. This shouldn't be too surprising. Sports gambling markets are often cited as an example of the wisdom of crowds and are generally believed to be pretty efficient.

So let's go back and apply this assumption to our drastically simplified pool, where we are only picking the champion. If these are the probabilities of each of these teams winning the title:

Ohio State: 25%
UCLA: 20%
Kansas: 15%
UNC: 15%
Florida: 10%
Texas A&M: 10%
Washington State: 5%

Then our assumption would imply that the above is also the distribution of entries. Twenty-five percent of the people would take Ohio State, 20% UCLA, and so on. If that's the case, then what is the best pick?

There is no best pick! Your chances of winning are the same no matter who you pick.

If there are 100 entries for example, then 25 of them took Ohio State. So if you are one of those 25 riding the Buckeyes, your chances of winning are 1%: a 25% chance they'll win, and then a 1-in-25 chance that you'll win the tiebreaker. If you take Washington State, you've also got a 1% chance of winning: 5% chance of the Cougars winning, then a 1-in-5 chance of winning the tiebreaker. Regardless of which team you look at, the analysis will turn out the same: you have a 1% chance of winning. One percent, of course, is one of a hundred, because you are one of a hundred people in the pool.

But that's an oversimplified situation. What happens in more complicated settings?

As many of you know, I teach math for a living. Last summer, I got a student and a colleague interested in investigating this question with me. Some very interesting (to us, anyway) mathematics arose from the investigation.

As an abstract model of the tournament prediction problem, we imagined the following game. Suppose that a random number, called the target, is to be chosen. Millions of participants will guess what the number will be, and whoever guesses closest is the winner. Let's say, just for example, that it is to come from the standard normal distribution. So there is about a 2/3 probability that the target will be between -1 and 1, a 95% chance that it will be between -2 and 2, a 99% chance that it will be between -3 and 3, and so on. Your job is to guess closer to the target than any other competitor, and let's assume that their guesses are distributed as independent standard normals as well. In other words, two-thirds of the guesses will be between -1 and 1, 95% between -2 and 2, and so on.

If you guess near zero, then you are likely to be close to the target. But you are also likely to be crowded out by the multitudes of other guesses that are in the same vicinity. If you make a guess far out in the tail, like say 3.4, then there aren't many guesses near yours, but the target isn't likely to be near your guess either. If you picture a standard bell curve, you can picture the choice as being between a tall skinny piece of the distribution (a guess near zero) or a short fat piece (a guess far from zero). Which gives you the better chance of winning?

As it turns out, it doesn't matter. Either is as good as the other. And anywhere in between is also just as good.

Even more interesting is that it does not matter that the distribution is standard normal. No matter what the distribution is (well, there are a few technical caveats, but I don't feel like I'm betraying the spirit of the results to say that it doesn't matter), as long as the distribution of entries is the same as the distribution of possible outcomes, and as long as the pool has a lot of entries, it doesn't matter what you guess.

So, at least to the extent that you believe our abstract game models your pool reasonably well, any guess is as good as any other. Fill out your bracket based on geography, uniform color, fierceness of mascot, or whatever other criteria you want. Your chances are as good as anyone else's.

If you're a casual follower of college hoops, you might find this liberating. While I haven't given you any actual advice on how to fill out your brackets, at least I've absolved you of any guilt you may have had about entering a contest where you have no idea what you're doing.

17 Comments | Posted in Non-football, Statgeekery

NFL Draft Contest

Posted by Doug on March 9, 2007

UPDATE: "live" scoring will take place here

There is very little in this world that I enjoy more than cooking up contests with funky rules. So here I am announcing the

First Annual NFL Draft Contest

Prize: 20 virtual dollars with which to sponsor a page at p-f-r. Also honor and glory.

How it works:

1. Select, in order, the players you think will be selected in the first round of the 2007 NFL draft. Post them in the comments to this post, like this:

1 - JaMarcus Russell - QB - LSU
2 - Calvin Johnson - WR - Ga Tech
...
32 - Greg Olsen - TE - Miami

The NFL teams that these players get drafted by are irrelevant. And don't worry about the exact format; just make sure every player is identified unambiguously.

2. Every player who gets picked in the first round is worth one (1) point. That point will be split among all participants who correctly predicted that player to be picked in that slot. EXAMPLE: suppose Adrian Peterson is picked third. If 14 participants had Peterson being picked third, they each get 1/14 of a point. If only four participants had Peterson going third, they each get 1/4 of a point.

3. Every participant's score will be computed via the following formula:

SCORE = (total points from #2 above) * (1 + N/25)

Where N is the number of days before the draft you posted your entry.

This isn't as complicated as it looks. If you post on the morning of the draft, your score is the number of points you got in step 2. If you post 25 days before the draft, you get double points for each correct pick. If you post 15 days before the draft, you get to multiply your points by 1.6. And so on.

We're about 50 days out right now, so you can get triple points if you're willing to take a stab at it today. That's a pretty steep multiplier. Note, however, that waiting gives you two advantages. Not only do you have more information about how the players are grading and what the teams are thinking, but you also have, because you can see the earlier entries, more information about the payoffs for picking certain players.

Obviously, you're not allowed to change your entry in any way once posted.

4. Participant with the highest SCORE wins.

I think you'll find that there is some nontrivial strategy here. Or maybe not. I made up the rules in about 20 seconds. But I do think these rules should result in an entry pool that is fairly nonhomogeneous. In my opinion, that's the first prerequisite for an interesting contest.

FINE PRINT:

a. If you don't care about winning yourself, but want to keep your friend from winning, you could simply wait for him to post his entry and then flood the contest with entries identical to his. For that reason, everyone is limited to one entry per person. This will be enforced by the honor system. If caught breaking this rule, you, your children, and your children's children will be banned from all future p-f-r contests. For three months *.

b. Just to make it interesting, I'll stipulate that you are allowed to name the same player in more than one slot. For instance, if you want to put Calvin Johnson in the #1 slot and the #2 slot, that's legal. You'd then get credit if he is drafted either first or second. Of course, by doing that, you forfeit the chance of getting points from both the first and the second picks (or maybe not --- I wouldn't put anything past Matt Millen).

c. I won't enter the contest myself, which will allow me to arbitrate any dispute impartially. Any ambiguities in the rules will be clarified by me in whatever way causes me the least amount of hassle.

26 Comments | Posted in NFL Draft

Chad Pennington and Thomas Jones

Posted by Chase Stuart on March 7, 2007

There are lots of things to write about the Thomas Jones trade, but most of them aren't that interesting to your average sports fan. I heard one comment, though, that piqued my interest. Roughly speaking, the claim was this:

Chad Pennington is going to be helped out a ton by Thomas Jones. Last year, it wasn't fair how the Jets asked him -- while recovering from consecutive arm surgeries -- to carry the entire offense. It was all on him and his arm, and he played through it all. Now, with Jones there, Pennington should be much better this year.

As usual, "much better" can be interpreted lots of ways. I'll look at two, adjusted yards per attempt, and team wins. As I started thinking about how to test this theory empirically, I realized there are quite a few assumptions we'll have to make to really examine this. There are thousands of QB seasons to look at, so here is how we'll narrow down the list.

  • We'll only look at quarterbacks that played on the same team in consecutive years, played in at least ten games in each season, and threw for at least 2,000 yards in each year. Those last two numbers are pretty arbitrary, but they seem to establish a decent floor.
  • The 2006 Jets RBs, as a group, rushed 426 times for 1,449 yards, a 3.40 YPC average. You may remember, this was after a historically bad start, too. Jets RBs, as a group, ranked 26th in rushing yards and 30th in YPC. We'll have to be arbitrary again, but the assumption we're using is that Thomas Jones is good, and this helps Pennington. If the Jets RBs, as a group, stink again next year, this analysis would be meaningless. So I'll only look at QBs that played on teams that moved up at least 10 rankings in rushing yards and 10 ranking spots in rushing YPC average the following year.
  • Only 37 QBs since the merger have met those requirements, but we'll have to narrow the list a bit more. Why? Our system now will spot someone like the 1990 version of Troy Aikman, who played in 15 games and threw for 2,579 yards for Dallas. The next year, the Cowboys RBs improved from ranking 24th and 23rd to 9th and 8th, in rushing yards and rushing YPC, respectively. And Aikman played in 12 games in 1991, throwing for 2,754 yards. But in 1990, his leading receiver was Kelvin Martin (732 yards), while in 1991 Michael Irvin (1523) more than doubled Martin's output. That surely helped Aikman more than anything else, and the key factor here is that we all expect Coles and Cotchery to lead the Jets in receiving in 2007. So I'm going to stipulate that another requirement is that the same two receivers lead the team in receiving yards the same year. I italicized receivers, because I don't mean wide receivers. If a RB or TE ranks first or second, that's fine too. Additionally, the order doesn't matter, because the Jets won't change much if it's Cotchery that leads the Jets in receiving yards next year, or if Coles does it again.

That whittles the list down to twelve. I think that's a pretty good number. There's too much information for one table, so here is how those QBs all did in the first year, Year N. The categories should be self-explanatory, except note that YdRk is how that team's running backs ranked in rushing yards, and YpcRk is how that team's running backs ranked in rushing yards per carry. I also threw Pennington on the top of the list, but did not include his numbers in the averages.


Name Nyr Tm YdRk YpcRk Receiver1 Receiver2 AY/A W-L
Chad Pennington 2006 nyj 26 30 ColeLa00 CotcJe00 5.78 10-6
Matt Hasselbeck 2002 sea 21 22 RobiKo00 JackDa00 6.62 7 -9
Jay Fiedler 2001 mia 24 30 ChamCh00 McKnJa00 5.86 11-5
Kerry Collins 1999 nyg 25 28 ToomAm00 HillIk00 5.73 7 -9
Mark Brunell 1997 jax 22 23 SmitJi00 McCaKe00 7.23 11-5
Brad Johnson 1996 min 18 18 ReedJa00 CartCr00 6.36 9 -7
John Elway 1994 den 28 27 MillAn00 SharSh00 6.48 7 -9
Wade Wilson 1988 min 20 23 CartAn00 JoneHa00 7.50 11-5
Ken O'Brien 1987 nyj 19 17 ToonAl00 ShulMi00 6.27 6 -9
Warren Moon 1986 oti 26 27 HillDr00 GiviEr00 5.02 5-11
Ron Jaworski 1980 phi 16 21 SmitCh00 CarmHa00 7.23 12-4
Jim Hart 1978 crd 23 25 TillPa00 GrayMe01 5.18 6-10
Ron Jaworski 1977 phi 24 24 CarmHa00 KrepKe00 4.10 5 -9
Average 22 24 6.13 8 -8

To be clear, the above table should be read as follows: Chad Pennington played for the 2006 Jets, whose RBs ranked 26th in rushing yards and 30th in rushing yards per carry, and his top receivers were Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. He averaged 5.78 adjusted yards per attempt, and his team went 10-6.

The rest of the above table list is filled with QBs on bad rushing teams, who played a lot in Year N and Year N+1, and whose top receivers remain unchanged. Here's how those QBs did in Year N+1:


Name N+1yr Tm YdRk YpcRk Receiver1 Receiver2 AY/A W-L
Matt Hasselbeck 2003 sea 7 9 JackDa00 RobiKo00 6.68 10-6
Jay Fiedler 2002 mia 1 3 ChamCh00 McKnJa00 6.02 9 -7
Kerry Collins 2000 nyg 5 15 ToomAm00 HillIk00 6.13 12-4
Mark Brunell 1998 jax 6 4 SmitJi00 McCaKe00 6.77 11-5
Brad Johnson 1997 min 7 5 ReedJa00 CartCr00 5.96 9 -7
John Elway 1995 den 15 3 MillAn00 SharSh00 6.64 8 -8
Wade Wilson 1989 min 6 11 CartAn00 JoneHa00 5.78 10-6
Ken O'Brien 1988 nyj 4 6 ToonAl00 ShulMi00 5.67 8 -7
Warren Moon 1987 oti 13 5 HillDr00 GiviEr00 5.99 9 -6
Ron Jaworski 1981 phi 4 2 CarmHa00 SmitCh00 5.26 10-6
Jim Hart 1979 crd 3 2 TillPa00 GrayMe01 3.72 5-11
Ron Jaworski 1978 phi 8 10 CarmHa00 KrepKe00 4.84 9 -7
Average 7 6 5.79 9 -7

I wasn't sure what before running the numbers what the results would tell us, but the results are clear: don't bump up Chad Pennington's 2007 projections just yet. Not surprisingly, team winning percentage went up with improved running games. But while half of the dozen QBs technically saw an increase in their adjusted yards per attempt ratio, only two of them, and none in the last 19 years, saw significant increases. So the next time you hear someone tell you how Chad Pennington's efficiency numbers should increase this year with an improved rushing attack, ask them why, because it didn't help Wade Wilson or Jim Hart.

Because like Pennington, Wilson and Hart were the starting QBs on the same team for two straight years. And like Pennington, Wilson and Hart had the same top two receivers (Coles/Cotchery, Tilley/Gray, and Carter/Jones) both years. Pennington, Wilson and Hart all had really bad running games the first year, and then added a marquee RB in the off-season (Thomas Jones, Ottis Anderson and Herschel Walker). And they have it even better than Pennington's projections, because we know that the receivers stayed healthy and the RBs did very well, and the rushing game became very good. Yet both quarterbacks saw significant decreases in their passing efficiencies.

I'm not saying that will happen to Pennington, but it's clear that it's incorrect to assume that the addition of Thomas Jones will help Pennington's statistics. By weighing the deck as much as possible -- assuming Pennington plays at least 10 games and throws for 2,000 yards next year, assuming that the Jets running game improves significantly, and assuming that Coles and Cotchery are healthy enough to lead the Jets in receiving -- there's still no evidence to expect Pennington to play better. He might play better because he's finally not recovering from off-season surgery, the offensive line has improved with experience, and he's got a year in this new system under his belt, but I'm not sure his numbers will improve because of Thomas Jones the runner. (I say the runner, because if someone like Reggie Bush came over and the Jets running game improved, Pennington's numbers would likely go up because of Reggie Bush the receiver. But Jones isn't in that class as a receiving back, so it's a moot point in this example.)

I'm filing this post under "Fantasy", so I should include some fantasy football information as well.


|==============Year N==============| |=============Year N+1=============|
QBID Rk Att Yards TD/INT FP Rk Att Yards TD/INT FP
HassMa00 19 419 3075 15/10 230 4 513 3844 26/15 306
FiedJa00 10 450 3290 20/19 282 26 292 2024 14/ 9 176
CollKe00 25 332 2316 8/11 152 8 529 3610 22/13 268
BrunMa00 8 435 3281 18/ 7 267 15 354 2601 20/ 9 220
JohnBr00 19 311 2258 17/10 186 13 452 3036 20/12 234
ElwaJo00 5 494 3490 16/10 276 5 542 3970 26/14 312
WilsWa00 14 332 2746 15/ 9 214 20 362 2543 9/12 170
OBriKe00 12 393 2696 13/ 8 185 18 424 2567 15/ 7 184
MoonWa00 12 488 3489 13/26 228 7 368 2806 21/18 236
JawoRo00 5 451 3529 27/12 288 13 461 3095 23/20 240
HartJi00 9 477 3121 16/18 215 26 378 2218 9/20 128
JawoRo00 5 346 2183 18/21 203 13 398 2487 16/16 180
Average 12 411 2956 16/13 227 14 423 2900 18/14 221

The numbers are pretty similar, with quarterback efficiencies going slightly down, TD/INT ratios going slightly up, and fantasy rankings going slightly down, after significantly improving their running games. (While not shown here, rushing yardage is included in fantasy points and fantasy ranking. E.g., Jay Fiedler rushed for 322 more yards the year before Miami added Ricky Williams than the year after. Once again, don't rush to bump Chad Pennington up your fantasy draft board just because the Jets added Thomas Jones.

19 Comments | Posted in Fantasy, History, Statgeekery

Ranking the receivers yet again

Posted by Doug on March 5, 2007

Here are four posts (I, II, III, IV) where I have made some attempt to rank the post-merger wide receivers. This will be another.

Let me start with this basic metric:

Adjusted receiving yards = (rec. yards) + 20*(rec. TDs) + 6*(receptions)

and the rationale behind it:

in The Hidden Game of Football, Carroll, Palmer, and Thorn argue that a touchdown is worth about one point more than having the ball at the one yard line. They also argue that 12 yards (or so) is worth one point. On that basis, they claim that it makes sense to give a 12ish-yard bonus for each touchdown scored. Ten is pretty close to 12, but a bit rounder, so they used that instead. I'm using 20 for no good reason except that it matches most people's intuitions better. You could also argue that the presence of a prolific touchdown-scorer at receiver opens up other red zone possibilities.

Why the six-yard bonus for each reception? The theory is that, given two players with the same number of yards, the one with more catches probably had more third-down catches. And third-down catches are more valuable than other catches because they keep drives alive. Someday I'll do some research with the aim of estimating the number of first-down catches snagged by old-time receivers for whom we don't have play-by-play data, but here is a quickie that gives me at least a little confidence that six yards is in the right ballpark.

I took all wide receiver seasons during the last three years during which the receiver in question had 40 or more first downs (there were 92 of them), and I ran a regression to predict the number of first downs a receiver would have based on his totals in catches and yardage. The result:

Estimated First Downs = 6 + .023*RecYd + .30*Rec

R^2 = .77, so it's a decent fit. Both coefficients are highly significant so there is no question that receptions are worth something, at least in terms of first downs, above and beyond the yardage they generate. The coefficient on receptions is about 13 times that on yards. So if first downs were the only thing that mattered, we'd give a 13-yard bonus per reception. But they're not the only thing that matter. Receivers do more than just actually catch passes that result in first downs. The receiver with fewer catches (and the same yards) presumably had bigger catches. In general, the first downs he did get must have been further down the field than the first downs achieved by the lower yards-per-catch guy. Gaining seven yards on third-and-six is great. But gaining eight yards on third-and-six is better. Gaining twenty is better still.

And what is the value of a first down anyway? Again using the estimates from The Hidden Game, we see that in general possession of the ball is worth about four points, which is equivalent to 50ish yards. So a typical punt that nets say, 30 yards, represents a net loss of 20 yards --- or somewhere between one and two points --- to the punting team. The regression says a catch is worth .3 first downs, so a catch must be worth .3*20, or 6 yards.

These are, of course, broad generalities. Some catches are worth much, much more than others. But we can't, at this point, track down all of Harold Carmichael's third down catches and try to assess the value of each one. So we have to estimate.

OK, so we've got a way to roll a receiver's stat line up into a single number. I think it feels about right, but whether or not that's the best way to do it doesn't concern me too much at the moment. If at some point I decide that 5 or 7 yards per reception makes more sense than 6, or if I want to start using 25 yards per touchdown instead of 20, I can make that change.

The next step is to adjust for the context in which the stats were generated. For all sorts of reasons, the game Cliff Branch was playing differed dramatically from the one Keyshawn Johnson played and is playing. In this post I ruminated on some ideas for accounting for that.

In 2006, 50% of the league's adjusted receiving yards (by WRs) were accounted for by 36 guys. The 36th guy was Deion Branch, who had 1158 adjusted yards. Branch will serve as the baseline for 2006. Anyone who did better than Branch gets credit for the difference. Anyone who did worse than gets a zero (not a negative score).

In 1973, 50% of the league's adjusted receiving yards were accounted for by 22 players, so the 22nd guy (Jerry LeVias, 817 adj. yards) is the baseline. So the top receivers in 1973 get compared to a lower baseline, which is appropriate because receiving yardage was tougher to come by in 1973. But at the same time, the top receivers of 2006 aren't getting unduly penalized for the fact that receiving yards are less concentrated at the top than they were in the 70s.

Finally, I give a receiver this much credit (same as in this post)

1100 * (PlayerAdjYards - BaselineAdjYards) / BaselineAdjYards

for every season in which he was above the baseline.

Here, according to this method, are the top 20 single seasons since 1970:


1. Wes Chandler 1982 1670
2. Jerry Rice 1995 1511
3. Cliff Branch 1974 1451
4. Torry Holt 2003 1443
5. Randy Moss 2003 1443
6. Dwight Clark 1982 1425
7. Isaac Bruce 1995 1398
8. Mike Quick 1983 1369
9. Herman Moore 1995 1352
10. Marvin Harrison 2002 1342
11. Sterling Sharpe 1992 1337
12. Jerry Rice 1986 1253
13. Roy Green 1983 1241
14. Carlos Carson 1983 1236
15. Jerry Rice 1993 1215
16. Jerry Rice 1987 1201
17. Roy Green 1984 1198
18. Harold Carmichael 1973 1186
19. Steve Smith 2005 1185
20. Jerry Rice 1994 1168

It's somewhat encouraging to see the top four seasons include one from each decade, but I can't deny that the 70s seem underrepresented in general. I'm not quite sure what to do about that, or if anything should be done about that. As you'll see, the top receivers of the 70s do rank much higher on this list than on any career stat list (e.g. Cliff Branch ranks #24 here but isn't in the top 50 in terms of total career receiving yards). Do they rank high enough? Who knows?

One final observation before I post the list: while this ranking does make an effort to account for the differing league environments each receiver played in, it makes no effort to account for the differing team environments. Marvin Harrison and Joey Galloway entered the league at essentially the same time, but Harrison has played most of his career with Peyton Manning, while Galloway has played most of his with Rick Mirer, Quincy Carter, Bruce Gradkowsi, et al. It's safe to say the environments they played in were very, very different. So this system is probably best thought of as a ranking of the receivers' statistics, not receivers themselves.

I won't be diminishing the suspense too much if I tell you that Jerry Rice ranks first, so I'll show his numbers to explain what everything means.


1. Jerry Rice 13629
1985 20 30 142
1986 1 29 1253
1987 1 32 1201
1988 3 31 801
1989 1 32 1116
1990 1 34 1159
1991 2 33 720
1992 3 34 860
1993 1 32 1215
1994 1 31 1168
1995 1 32 1511
1996 2 34 670
1998 6 34 492
2000 24 32 164
2001 13 33 450
2002 11 36 560
2003 26 36 140

Rice amassed 13629 Adjusted Yards Above Baseline (AYAB) in his career. Shown below are all the seasons in which he finished above the baseline. The first number after the year is Rice's rank in AY for that season, the second number is the rank of the baseline player, and the final number is his AYAB for the year.

Here are the top 51 among all receivers debuting in 1970 or later, or you can examine the full list of all receivers debuting since 1970 who finished above the baseline at least once:


1. Jerry Rice 13629
1985 20 30 142
1986 1 29 1253
1987 1 32 1201
1988 3 31 801
1989 1 32 1116
1990 1 34 1159
1991 2 33 720
1992 3 34 860
1993 1 32 1215
1994 1 31 1168
1995 1 32 1511
1996 2 34 670
1998 6 34 492
2000 24 32 164
2001 13 33 450
2002 11 36 560
2003 26 36 140

2. Marvin Harrison 7750
1996 28 34 85
1997 22 32 151
1998 33 34 6
1999 1 34 1012
2000 2 32 988
2001 1 33 1014
2002 1 36 1342
2003 5 36 862
2004 9 35 646
2005 8 36 673
2006 1 36 967

3. Steve Largent 6996
1976 13 24 323
1977 13 24 294
1978 1 26 850
1979 2 24 559
1980 6 28 461
1981 4 27 606
1982 14 29 292
1983 7 31 945
1984 7 30 777
1985 2 30 724
1986 8 29 547
1987 6 32 612

4. Torry Holt 6045
2000 4 32 935
2001 6 33 597
2002 10 36 581
2003 2 36 1443
2004 4 35 833
2005 6 36 904
2006 6 36 748

5. Cris Carter 5901
1988 29 31 33
1991 17 33 283
1992 28 34 51
1993 7 32 611
1994 3 31 885
1995 5 32 1115
1996 7 34 565
1997 8 32 536
1998 12 34 397
1999 5 34 563
2000 10 32 739
2001 26 33 119

6. James Lofton 5774
1978 12 26 250
1979 19 24 155
1980 2 28 611
1981 2 27 630
1982 5 29 713
1983 5 31 1043
1984 6 30 802
1985 8 30 497
1986 21 29 186
1987 12 32 378
1991 13 33 357
1992 19 34 147

7. Tim Brown 5625
1988 30 31 1
1992 26 34 59
1993 6 32 642
1994 5 31 787
1995 9 32 782
1996 11 34 466
1997 2 32 773
1998 15 34 361
1999 6 34 532
2000 15 32 534
2001 11 33 513
2002 24 36 170

8. Randy Moss 5388
1998 2 34 700
1999 3 34 621
2000 5 32 892
2001 8 33 542
2002 4 36 751
2003 1 36 1443
2004 29 35 95
2005 21 36 339

9. Isaac Bruce 5362
1995 2 32 1398
1996 4 34 601
1999 9 34 421
2000 6 32 868
2001 23 33 273
2002 15 36 373
2003 17 36 341
2004 7 35 661
2006 17 36 421

10. Michael Irvin 5327
1991 1 33 975
1992 2 34 962
1993 4 32 834
1994 9 31 612
1995 4 32 1138
1996 26 34 90
1997 10 32 490
1998 21 34 224

11. Terrell Owens 5253
1997 21 32 179
1998 8 34 449
2000 3 32 977
2001 3 33 854
2002 3 36 784
2003 11 36 598
2004 8 35 658
2005 36 36 0
2006 5 36 752

12. Jimmy Smith 5126
1996 10 34 516
1997 7 32 565
1998 7 34 476
1999 2 34 897
2000 12 32 638
2001 5 33 781
2002 19 36 336
2003 30 36 65
2004 17 35 471
2005 20 36 375

13. Sterling Sharpe 4913
1988 27 31 59
1989 2 32 1009
1990 6 34 456
1991 21 33 247
1992 1 34 1337
1993 2 32 997
1994 4 31 806

14. Rod Smith 4649
1997 9 32 516
1998 4 34 518
1999 23 34 182
2000 1 32 1040
2001 4 33 812
2002 18 36 348
2003 23 36 200
2004 15 35 491
2005 12 36 538

15. Gary Clark 4544
1985 13 30 314
1986 4 29 724
1987 3 32 759
1988 20 31 309
1989 7 32 702
1990 4 34 547
1991 3 33 714
1992 10 34 336
1993 24 32 135

16. Art Monk 4441
1980 23 28 90
1981 19 27 142
1982 21 29 145
1983 24 31 237
1984 3 30 1081
1985 3 30 657
1986 12 29 464
1988 15 31 402
1989 8 32 682
1990 21 34 122
1991 10 33 413

17. Henry Ellard 4400
1985 23 30 97
1987 18 32 305
1988 1 31 1065
1989 5 32 778
1990 3 34 650
1991 16 33 285
1992 34 34 0
1993 19 32 208
1994 7 31 729
1995 24 32 206
1996 30 34 72

18. Herman Moore 4232
1992 14 34 291
1993 12 32 275
1994 10 31 602
1995 3 32 1352
1996 1 34 713
1997 3 32 724
1998 20 34 271

19. Andre Reed 4159
1986 26 29 80
1987 14 32 340
1988 13 31 439
1989 4 32 833
1990 10 34 364
1991 5 33 565
1992 13 34 302
1993 22 32 145
1994 6 31 768
1996 17 34 232
1997 27 32 77
1998 31 34 8

20. Mark Clayton 4148
1984 2 30 1121
1985 10 30 351
1986 6 29 586
1987 15 32 337
1988 2 31 857
1989 18 32 407
1991 7 33 486

21. Wes Chandler 4135
1979 7 24 345
1980 10 28 367
1981 9 27 442
1982 1 29 1670
1983 17 31 432
1984 28 30 57
1985 4 30 647
1986 22 29 172

22. Harold Carmichael 3982
1973 1 22 1186
1974 4 25 606
1975 18 23 130
1977 11 24 348
1978 4 26 637
1979 15 24 184
1980 18 28 168
1981 12 27 293
1982 9 29 426

23. Andre Rison 3878
1989 27 32 60
1990 2 34 717
1991 8 33 475
1992 4 34 852
1993 3 32 892
1994 13 31 517
1997 14 32 361

24. Cliff Branch 3819
1974 1 25 1451
1975 3 23 481
1976 1 24 988
1977 22 24 49
1978 25 26 37
1979 20 24 106
1980 20 28 147
1982 8 29 435
1983 28 31 120

25. Chad Johnson 3818
2002 16 36 365
2003 4 36 919
2004 5 35 732
2005 3 36 971
2006 2 36 829

26. Drew Hill 3582
1985 5 30 581
1986 10 29 480
1987 7 32 592
1988 6 31 702
1989 21 32 330
1990 9 34 395
1991 6 33 500

27. Mike Quick 3450
1983 1 31 1369
1984 11 30 523
1985 1 30 747
1986 15 29 359
1987 10 32 451

28. Roy Green 3441
1982 18 29 196
1983 2 31 1241
1984 1 30 1198
1987 21 32 189
1988 10 31 572
1990 30 34 43

29. Dwight Clark 3401
1980 3 28 523
1981 7 27 460
1982 2 29 1425
1983 12 31 583
1984 18 30 232
1985 24 30 92
1986 25 29 83

30. Joe Horn 3313
2000 8 32 770
2001 7 33 558
2002 8 36 627
2003 14 36 482
2004 2 35 876

31. Cris Collinsworth 3296
1981 11 27 346
1982 4 29 765
1983 9 31 827
1984 14 30 416
1985 9 30 466
1986 11 29 474

32. John Stallworth 3254
1977 5 24 491
1978 10 26 261
1979 3 24 513
1981 10 27 350
1982 16 29 266
1984 4 30 1027
1985 11 30 342

33. Anthony Miller 3052
1989 6 32 720
1990 13 34 287
1992 6 34 579
1993 5 32 648
1994 17 31 362
1995 16 32 453

34. Keenan McCardell 3047
1996 13 34 358
1997 11 32 458
1998 26 34 115
1999 31 34 88
2000 14 32 595
2001 14 33 425
2003 8 36 671
2005 22 36 332

35. Hines Ward 3021
2001 20 33 305
2002 2 36 854
2003 7 36 763
2004 22 35 315
2005 17 36 419
2006 22 36 361

36. Keyshawn Johnson 2932
1996 27 34 86
1997 20 32 202
1998 5 34 492
1999 10 34 418
2000 23 32 222
2001 9 33 540
2002 20 36 334
2004 25 35 277
2005 26 36 207
2006 28 36 149

37. Mark Duper 2926
1983 11 31 688
1984 5 30 821
1986 3 29 808
1987 28 32 51
1990 26 34 68
1991 11 33 386
1992 23 34 99

38. Eric Moulds 2922
1998 3 34 598
1999 28 34 141
2000 11 32 703
2001 28 33 99
2002 5 36 720
2003 32 36 41
2004 19 35 412
2005 28 36 204

39. Irving Fryar 2875
1986 29 29 0
1990 22 34 105
1991 18 33 272
1992 20 34 135
1993 9 32 346
1994 8 31 624
1995 23 32 207
1996 6 34 568
1997 6 32 615

40. Drew Pearson 2859
1974 2 25 1134
1975 6 23 342
1976 7 24 535
1977 4 24 505
1978 23 26 54
1979 9 24 287
1982 29 29 0

41. Stanley Morgan 2808
1978 17 26 150
1979 10 24 278
1980 12 28 264
1981 17 27 200
1982 10 29 393
1983 18 31 382
1986 2 29 1065
1987 26 32 72

42. Derrick Mason 2778
2000 26 32 144
2001 16 33 389
2002 22 36 283
2003 6 36 859
2004 12 35 605
2005 14 36 456
2006 34 36 37

43. Steve Watson 2679
1981 3 27 615
1982 11 29 391
1983 10 31 781
1984 8 30 651
1985 17 30 239

44. Tony Hill 2643
1978 11 26 255
1979 5 24 384
1980 7 28 456
1981 21 27 104
1982 15 29 290
1983 20 31 363
1984 17 30 232
1985 7 30 546
1986 28 29 8

45. Wesley Walker 2635
1977 15 24 253
1978 2 26 698
1981 26 27 34
1982 6 29 691
1983 14 31 528
1986 13 29 429

46. Carlos Carson 2635
1982 20 29 180
1983 3 31 1236
1984 13 30 423
1985 25 30 68
1987 4 32 726

47. Ernest Givins 2601
1986 14 29 367
1987 8 32 553
1988 16 31 359
1989 29 32 33
1990 7 34 421
1991 14 33 303
1992 11 34 329
1993 17 32 231

48. Muhsin Muhammad 2582
1998 25 34 179
1999 7 34 520
2000 13 32 635
2002 36 36 0
2003 29 36 77
2004 1 35 966
2005 32 36 46
2006 27 36 156

49. Eric Martin 2543
1987 16 32 325
1988 8 31 661
1989 14 32 487
1990 14 34 229
1991 28 33 84
1992 8 34 493
1993 14 32 261

50. John Jefferson 2543
1978 3 26 676
1979 4 24 415
1980 1 28 967
1982 28 29 29
1983 16 31 455

51. Joey Galloway 2513
1995 20 32 333
1996 21 34 161
1997 12 32 412
1998 17 34 325
2002 26 36 116
2005 7 36 774
2006 20 36 390

17 Comments | Posted in General, History

The anatomy of a run

Posted by Doug on March 2, 2007

If you're in the market for a football podcast, you should check out the footballguys.com podcast: The Audible. During the season their coverage focused on fantasy football. Since then, they've been on-site at the Senior Bowl, the East-West Shrine game, and the combine covering draft prospects.

If you're a draftophile, all their stuff is worth listening to. But one that you'll definitely find interesting is their recent interview with Florida State running back Lorenzo Booker. The whole interview is interesting, as Booker appears to be an extremely impressive young man. In particular, though, there is a segment near the end where Booker describes what was going through his head during a particular run in a game against Notre Dame.

Here is the full interview if you want to listen to it (the Booker interview starts at about the 17-minute mark; the first part is an interview with financial advisor Robert Burks, who has as clients some NFL players and soon-to-be NFL players). Here is a transcript of Booker's description of the run. Read it and then watch the run.

As I'm running, I'm reading five different guys, and I'm reading their angles all at the same time. So, once you figure out a guy's angle, it's all about making him believe he's right.

And so from that standpoint I had made about three or four guys miss, and so I backed up out of the hole to kind of regain myself. I felt like I was in the hole and if I kept moving around someone was going to tackle me, so I backed up to kind of observe the whole situation again.

But as I backed up I felt like I was slipping. I knew the guy coming at me knew that I was slipping, but at the same time I knew that I could regain my balance at any time. So as I was backing up, I wanted to get him to the point to where he committed to the point to where he couldn't pull himself back.

And so once I stuck my foot in the ground it was over and the guy slid like he was a baseball player. The play was over after that.

5 Comments | Posted in General, NFL Draft

Steroids

Posted by Doug on March 1, 2007

My colleague Sean Forman from baseball-reference is puzzled by the media's coverage of the latest steroid scandal. He asked me to solicit the opinions of football fans about the story itself or about his thoughts on the matter.

17 Comments | Posted in General