Westbrook is good and the Texans are bad
Posted by Doug on September 26, 2006
I had a couple of requests via email yesterday.
One was to provide some historical context for just how bad the Texans' defense has been. They've given up a lot of yards, and they've given up the most points in the league. But if you want to wade into a worst-ever brawl, you'd better be packing more than 98 points allowed in a three-game stretch. Since 1978, NFL teams have played 11,813 three-game stretches (some of which overlap with each other), and 361 have been worse than the Texans' last three games. So they're in the 97th percentile for badness. But as of now they do not seem to be anything special. They're just regular old worst-in-the-league bad.
In case you were curious, the worst defensive three-game stretch of the last 25 years belongs to the Titans, who in weeks 13--15 of 2004 gave up 140 points: 51 to the Colts, 49 to the Chiefs, and 40 to the Raiders. On the other end of the list, the 2000 Titans, the 2000 Steelers, and the 1985 Bears had three-game stretches where they allowed 3 points.
The other request was for an analysis of where Brian Westbrook's Sunday performance ranks historically in terms of fantasy points per touch. If you set the cutoff at 10 touches, then it was the best performance since 2000. Westbrook is no stranger to this list:
Name YR WK RSH YD REC YD TD
===================================================
Brian Westbrook 2006 3 8 117 4 47 3
T.J. Duckett 2004 14 12 65 0 0 4
Charlie Garner 2002 5 8 94 4 83 2
Larry Johnson 2005 1 9 110 1 11 2
Clinton Portis 2003 14 22 218 2 36 5
Marshall Faulk 2000 5 7 55 6 116 2
Jerome Bettis 2005 17 10 41 0 0 3
Ryan Moats 2005 14 11 114 0 0 2
Marshall Faulk 2001 12 12 70 6 128 3
Kevin Faulk 2002 10 5 21 7 109 2
Brian Westbrook 2003 11 9 48 5 60 3
Brian Westbrook 2003 15 8 59 3 45 2
Michael Pittman 2004 9 15 128 2 30 3
Shaun Alexander 2002 4 24 139 3 92 5
Tatum Bell 2005 5 12 127 1 5 2
Randy Jordan 2000 16 11 55 1 55 2
Frank Gore 2005 16 10 68 0 0 2
Tiki Barber 2004 1 9 125 5 75 1
Clinton Portis 2002 15 21 130 3 75 4
Antowain Smith 2000 17 17 147 1 4 3
Corey Dillon 2000 8 22 278 0 0 2
Tiki Barber 2000 1 13 144 3 25 2
Derrick Blaylock 2004 12 8 57 3 21 2
Garrison Hearst 2001 11 12 106 1 6 2
Chris Warren 2000 8 10 64 1 11 2
Antowain Smith 2005 6 12 88 0 0 2
Shaun Alexander 2005 3 22 140 0 0 4
Brian Westbrook 2005 3 13 68 6 140 2
If you lower the cutoff to five touches, there are a few performances that can top Westbrook's. Who can forget Jerome Bettis's 5 carries for 1 yard and 3 TDs in week 1 of 2004?
September 26th, 2006 at 7:47 am
Savvy fantasy players will remember that Titans streak as the "Drew Bennett era". Normally three games is hardly enough to make much of an impact, but Bennett scored 20% of his career fantasy points in those three games, which make up just four percent of his career games.
September 26th, 2006 at 8:06 am
Those teams that gave up 3 points in a 3 game stretch... how were the points distributed among the 3 games??
JUST KIDDING
September 26th, 2006 at 9:37 am
I heard a nasty rumor about Westbrook. This is all hearsay:
I work with someone who claims his best friend is an orthopeadic surgeon who works under the Eagles chief medical surgeon. He says that Westbrook is still bothered by last year's Lis Franc's sprain that was more severe than the grade 1 reported in the papers. He also said that Westbrook suffers from the same bone-on-bone degenerative condition in his knees as Curtis Martin. My coworker (for these reasons) took Westbrook off his draft board so he fell to me in the FOURTH round (no, I haven't lost yet).
I'm mentioning all this for two reasons:
1) He sure hasn't looked bothered so far. I'm questioning my coworker's judgement and credibility. Has anyone else heard these rumors?
2) If it's true, how good is he at 100%?!!
It would explain why they aren't making him practice (ever), but he looks too good to take the allegations seriously.
September 26th, 2006 at 11:29 am
look for an (I) next to Westbrook's name soon. GLS.
September 26th, 2006 at 1:45 pm
You mean (IR)?
September 26th, 2006 at 2:37 pm
well yes - that is what I mean. The service I use puts a simple (I) for the IR status (along with (P), (Q), (D), and (O)).
September 26th, 2006 at 3:00 pm
Where'd you hear that news? He's looked so good! How could he be hampered?
September 26th, 2006 at 3:12 pm
Ben, monkeytime is using your comment to make me panic and trade him Westy at a bargain price.
It's working too. At least the panic part. Cut it out!
September 27th, 2006 at 9:06 am
Doug, if it's any consolation, my coworker's friend inaccurately told him what Kearse's injury entailed, which leads me to believe he's not that credible. Before the medical report broke, I asked him to guage his credibility. He said:
"Kearse has torn his MCL and ACL for sure. Tomorrow they are going to test the PCL and LCL--if the LCL is torn, it's career threatening."
We now know he tore his MCL, and partially tore his PCL and LCL, but the ACL remained in tact.
I'm not sold yet, but I have been trying to sell Westbrook high (with no luck, but I'm probably aiming too high--I offered Westbrook and McAllister for Larry Johnson and the same deal for Tomlinson. If those aren't successful, I might offer Gore in the same package instead of McAllister).
If you've got any inside sources though, please check with them and let me know. I'm sure I could dump westbrook for LaMont Jordan, which I don't want to do unless I'm sure he's getting ready to check out.
September 27th, 2006 at 3:11 pm
I still say that if the texans had another QB they would have a better defence,defence off their offence