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BCS update

Posted by Doug on November 3, 2006

Before we get to the Big East BCS watch I wanted to call attention, on the eve of the Oklahoma State vs. Texas tilt, to one of the most remarkable splits ever:

First Half Second Half
2005 28-12 0- 35
2004 35-14 0- 42
2003 16-14 0- 41
TOTAL 79-40 0-118

Ouch. Hopefully my Cowboys will make some adjustments tomorrow and remove one more complication from the BCS picture.

Now, with Louisville's win over West Virginia last night, I'll go ahead and predict that the Cardinals will play for the national title if they win out. There are people who forecast these things more accurately than I can, but according to my margin-not-included power rankings, which I think are somewhat indicative of how the official BCS algorithms will act, Louisville is now #3 behind only Michigan and Ohio State. They trail Texas in the human poll right now, but have a huge lead over the Longhorns in the computers.

My rough eyeball calculations suggest that Louisville has a roughly equivalent schedule to Auburn, Florida, and Texas going forward, even possibly including a conference championship game. So I could be wrong about this, but I don't think an undefeated Louisville team will end up behind the SEC teams in the computer polls, and they will definitely end up ahead of Texas. Louisville also has a lead over Auburn and Florida in the human polls, so I think they'll be in Glendale in January if they win out.

It could be close, though, and we might see a lot of disgusting (but understandable) coach lobbying in the media. Sadly, it seems that that is now as much a part of a major college football coach's job description as recruiting and X-and-O stuff.

This entry was posted on Friday, November 3rd, 2006 at 5:14 am and is filed under BCS, College. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.