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For more from Chase and Jason, check out their work at Football Perspective and The Big Lead.
JaMarcus Russell and Jeff Garcia
I'm a closet JaMarcus Russell fan, if only because it seems like an overwhelming and disproportionate (even for being a Raider and the #1 pick) number of people seem to dislike the guy. He actually played very well at the end of last season, and posted similar numbers to Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco. As a 23 year old QB who went through his first training camp in 2008, he was impressive.
But enough about Russell; what I'm curious about is Oakland's signing of Jeff Garcia. Specifically, can (or will?) Garcia help Russell reach his potential and become an elite quarterback? The broader question is this: does playing with a successful, veteran QB help a QB (after controlling for draft position) become a better QB? Is there anything to this mentor theory?
Anecdotally, we can think of lots of examples. Dan Fouts began his career on the same team as Johnny Unitas; Boomer Esiason joined the Bengals just as Ken Anderson was finishing up his career; Daunte Culpepper and Tommy Kramer started their Vikings careers behind Randall Cunningham and Fran Tarkenton; Chad Pennington learned under Vinny Testaverde; Tom Brady behind Drew Bledsoe; Ron Jaworski learned under John Hadl, Ken Stabler under Daryle Lamonica, John Brodie under Y.A. Tittle and Neil Lomax under Jim Hart. While the next two guys are outside the scope of my study, obviously Steve Young had Joe Montana and then Jeff Garcia had Steve Young. It's a little early to say, but the early returns on Aaron Rodgers are good, too. They're good for Matt Cassell, too, even if he becomes another Scott Mitchell, who himself learned under a HOF QB.
But there are just as many counter examples. J.P. Losman learned under Bledsoe, but he hasn't become Tom Brady; Todd Collins sat behind Jim Kelly; Rex Grossman was tutored by Chris Chandler. While the Bengals were lucky with Esiason and Anderson, they weren't so good with Jack Thompson (#3 pick in the '79 draft) teaming with Ken Anderson or David Klingler getting advice from Boomer Esiason. Tommy Maddox, Brian Griese and Jeff Lewis all went to John Elway University; Jerry Tagge (#11 pick in the '72 draft) teamed with John Hadl in Tagge's third -- and last -- year in the league. Dave Brown was the #1 pick in the 1992 supplemental draft, but even Phil Simms' tutelage couldn't save him. Joe Namath won a Super Bowl, but Richard Todd, the Crimson Tide and Jets QB who followed in his footsteps, underwhelmed. And before Young mentored Garcia, the 49ers drafted Jim Druckenmiller to be the QB of the future. What about the guy who mentored Young? Joe Montana also teamed with Matt Blundin, second round pick of the Chiefs in 1992.
Perhaps no one had it as good as Eli Manning. His father was an NFL QB, his older brother was an all time great QB, and he began his career learning under Kurt Warner. Ryan Leaf had Craig Whelihan, although Jim Harbaugh was in San Diego by year three. But let's move past the individual cases; there have been 333 quarterbacks drafted in the regular NFL draft between 1970 and 2004. QBs that did not play at all in their first three seasons were excluded from the study.
I ran a regression using draft value and quality of the mentor QB as my inputs and eventual quality of the drafted QB as my output. There quality of the mentor QB variable was insignificant. I also used the logs of the quality of the mentor and drafted QBs, and the mentor QB variable was insignificant. I also ran the study using only QBs drafted in the top 30 overall; same result.
In other words, this is one of those studies where the answer is zero. As in, there is no evidence I saw that suggests QBs become better because of the presence of a veteran, mentor QBs. That said, let me present the full results. A couple of words about the ratings.
The mentor ratings are based on the QB's NFL production (relative to replacement) up until the season in question. I picked the best mentor possible for each QB in his first three years, to mimic what Russell will have with Garcia. The "score" column at the end is the grade for each QB; the grades aren't perfect -- Vinny Testaverde's ahead of Tom Brady -- but the individual grades don't matter *that* much. The important thing as far as the regression goes is that Vinny Testaverde and Tom Brady are both well ahead of Rodney Peete and Pat Haden, who are both well ahead of Eric Zeier and Ty Detmer. Because of those things, I was hesitant to include the full list, but I thought you guys might want to run your own studies. So here goes.
player dryr pick team Mentor Mentor SCORE Tommy Kramer 1977 27 min Fran Tarkenton 16744 4697 Matt Blundin 1992 40 kan Joe Montana 14687 0 Dan Fouts 1973 64 sdg Johnny Unitas 14193 13861 Mark Vlasic 1987 88 sdg Dan Fouts 13938 0 Scott Mitchell 1990 93 mia Dan Marino 13589 2428 Craig Nall 2002 164 gnb Brett Favre 12850 27 Brian Griese 1998 91 den John Elway 12664 3167 Boomer Esiason 1984 38 cin Ken Anderson 11858 8926 Doug Gaynor 1986 99 cin Ken Anderson 11858 0 Jeff Lewis 1996 100 den John Elway 11341 0 Jim Druckenmiller 1997 26 sfo Steve Young 11089 0 Jay Walker 1994 198 nwe Warren Moon 11033 0 Scott Secules 1988 151 dal Dan Marino 11006 0 Jim Sorgi 2004 193 clt Peyton Manning 10660 158 Tony Adams 1973 343 sdg Len Dawson 10376 - 232 David Jaynes 1974 66 kan Len Dawson 10194 0 Dean Carlson 1972 179 kan Len Dawson 10194 0 Bruce Mathison 1983 272 sdg Dan Fouts 9787 - 30 Glenn Foley 1994 208 nyj Boomer Esiason 9448 192 Stoney Case 1995 80 crd Boomer Esiason 9448 0 Mike Boryla 1974 87 phi Roman Gabriel 9419 - 350 Turk Schonert 1980 242 chi Ken Anderson 9417 486 Todd Collins 1995 45 buf Jim Kelly 9135 675 Elvis Grbac 1993 219 sfo Steve Young 8977 3808 Carlos Brown 1975 296 gnb John Hadl 8961 - 230 Scott Hunter 1971 140 gnb Bart Starr 8944 489 Frank Patrick 1970 251 gnb Bart Starr 8944 0 John Reaves 1972 14 phi Roman Gabriel 8864 84 Ron Jaworski 1973 37 ram John Hadl 8850 5649 Brad Johnson 1992 227 min Warren Moon 8817 6317 Matt Hasselbeck 1998 187 gnb Brett Favre 8809 5865 Brooks Bollinger 2003 200 nyj Vinny Testaverde 8803 70 Kliff Kingsbury 2003 201 nwe Vinny Testaverde 8803 0 Neil Lomax 1981 33 crd Jim Hart 8698 5431 Jay Schroeder 1984 83 was Jim Hart 8698 3779 Jerry Tagge 1972 11 gnb John Hadl 8678 - 180 Craig Whelihan 1995 197 sdg Jim Everett 8552 0 Alex Van Pelt 1993 216 pit Jim Kelly 8378 98 Marques Tuiasosopo 2001 59 rai Rich Gannon 8322 0 Dennis Morrison 1973 357 sfo John Brodie 8293 0 Joe Reed 1971 283 sfo John Brodie 8293 - 190 Bucky Richardson 1992 220 oti Warren Moon 8275 0 Drew Henson 2003 192 htx Vinny Testaverde 8260 0 Doug Nussmeier 1994 116 nor Jim Everett 8242 0 Matt Mauck 2004 225 den Steve McNair 8144 0 Rusty Lisch 1980 89 crd Jim Hart 8044 0 Steve Pisarkiewicz 1977 19 crd Jim Hart 8044 0 Ed Luther 1980 101 sdg Dan Fouts 8043 0 Chris Redman 2000 75 rav Randall Cunningham 7880 152 Richard Todd 1976 6 nyj Joe Namath 7768 2491 Pat Haden 1975 176 ram Joe Namath 7768 1709 Vince Ferragamo 1977 91 ram Joe Namath 7768 1616 Browning Nagle 1991 34 nyj Boomer Esiason 7744 0 David Klingler 1992 6 cin Boomer Esiason 7744 - 201 Donald Hollas 1991 99 cin Boomer Esiason 7744 - 233 Chad Pennington 2000 18 nyj Vinny Testaverde 7676 3515 Patrick Ramsey 2002 32 was Mark Brunell 7608 471 Wayne Clark 1970 198 sdg John Hadl 7576 - 150 Jack Thompson 1979 3 cin Ken Anderson 7529 - 122 David Garrard 2002 108 jax Mark Brunell 7480 2065 Byron Leftwich 2003 7 jax Mark Brunell 7480 1594 Steve McNair 1995 3 oti Dave Krieg 7477 9659 Daunte Culpepper 1999 11 min Randall Cunningham 7381 5491 Erik Wilhelm 1989 83 cin Boomer Esiason 7229 - 12 Craig Erickson 1991 131 phi Steve DeBerg 7207 1195 Casey Weldon 1992 102 phi Steve DeBerg 7207 0 Tony Graziani 1997 204 atl Steve DeBerg 7207 0 Steve Stenstrom 1995 134 kan Dave Krieg 7103 - 105 J.P. Losman 2004 22 buf Drew Bledsoe 7090 176 Mark Herrmann 1981 98 den Craig Morton 6876 31 Tom Hodson 1990 59 nwe Steve Grogan 6641 0 David Woodley 1980 214 mia Bob Griese 6592 607 Tommy Maddox 1992 25 den John Elway 6559 1084 Rob Hertel 1978 131 cin Ken Anderson 6548 0 Kent Graham 1992 211 nyg Phil Simms 6460 761 Shawn Moore 1991 284 den John Elway 6454 0 Guy Benjamin 1978 51 mia Bob Griese 6297 80 Doug Flutie 1985 285 ram Steve Grogan 6287 3981 Chris Simms 2003 97 tam Brad Johnson 6226 - 166 Don Strock 1973 111 mia Earl Morrall 6170 852 Rex Grossman 2003 22 chi Chris Chandler 6081 614 T.J. Rubley 1992 228 ram Jim Everett 6075 - 29 Luke McCown 2004 106 cle Jeff Garcia 6036 0 Jerry Golsteyn 1976 333 nyg Norm Snead 5962 0 John Navarre 2004 202 crd Kurt Warner 5929 0 Mike Elkins 1989 32 kan Ron Jaworski 5886 0 Tom Brady 2000 199 nwe Drew Bledsoe 5787 8263 Vinny Testaverde 1987 1 tam Joe Ferguson 5760 8320 Jeff George 1990 1 clt Joe Ferguson 5760 5576 Mark Malone 1980 28 pit Terry Bradshaw 5687 427 Randall Cunningham 1985 37 phi Ron Jaworski 5676 7011 Tom Owen 1974 322 sfo Norm Snead 5624 0 Carl Summerell 1974 80 nyg Norm Snead 5624 0 Chuck Long 1986 12 det Joe Ferguson 5547 - 36 Gifford Nielsen 1978 73 oti Ken Stabler 5529 258 Matt Kofler 1982 48 buf Joe Ferguson 5522 0 Jeff Blake 1992 166 nyj Ken O'Brien 5474 4258 John Hufnagel 1973 348 den Charley Johnson 5462 0 Tony Banks 1996 42 ram Mark Rypien 5460 1813 Todd Husak 2000 202 was Jeff George 5455 0 Eli Manning 2004 1 nyg Kurt Warner 5428 732 Bobby Hoying 1996 85 phi Mark Rypien 5421 - 609 Marc Bulger 2000 168 nor Kurt Warner 5394 4033 Michael Vick 2001 1 atl Chris Chandler 5380 3207 Ryan Leaf 1998 2 sdg Jim Harbaugh 5342 0 Moses Moreno 1998 232 chi Jim Harbaugh 5342 - 122 Michael Bishop 1999 227 nwe Drew Bledsoe 5273 0 Tony Eason 1983 15 nwe Steve Grogan 5193 1325 Ken Dorsey 2003 241 sfo Jeff Garcia 5169 0 Dave Barr 1995 119 ram Mark Rypien 5165 0 Kevin Sweeney 1987 180 dal Danny White 4993 - 257 Mike Buck 1990 156 nor Tommy Kramer 4922 143 Jim Everett 1986 3 ram Steve Bartkowski 4921 8370 Hugh Millen 1986 71 ram Steve Bartkowski 4921 505 Wally Richardson 1997 234 rav Jim Harbaugh 4860 0 Stan Humphries 1988 159 was Doug Williams 4831 2710 Dan McGwire 1991 16 sea Dave Krieg 4795 0 Paul McDonald 1980 109 cle Brian Sipe 4780 285 Jesse Palmer 2001 125 nyg Kerry Collins 4768 0 Troy Taylor 1990 84 nyj Ken O'Brien 4732 0 Josh McCown 2002 81 crd Jeff Blake 4679 183 Rich Gannon 1987 98 min Tommy Kramer 4674 8308 Craig Penrose 1976 107 den Craig Morton 4653 - 211 David Humm 1975 128 rai George Blanda 4604 - 201 Randy Wright 1984 153 gnb Jim Zorn 4570 257 Dean May 1984 138 phi Ron Jaworski 4560 0 Eric Zeier 1995 84 cle Vinny Testaverde 4538 327 Mike Kirkland 1976 143 clt Bert Jones 4533 0 Tom Tupa 1988 68 crd Neil Lomax 4530 - 13 Perry Klein 1994 111 atl Bobby Hebert 4472 0 Jeff Francis 1989 140 rai Bernie Kosar 4446 0 Steve Pelluer 1984 113 dal Danny White 4391 1216 Jim McMahon 1982 5 chi Greg Landry 4382 4196 Aaron Brooks 1999 131 gnb Jeff Blake 4376 3750 Danny White 1974 53 dal Roger Staubach 4354 4799 Cary Conklin 1990 86 was Mark Rypien 4294 0 Wade Wilson 1981 210 min Archie Manning 4203 3599 Oliver Luck 1982 44 oti Archie Manning 4203 - 40 Bradlee Van Pelt 2004 250 den Jake Plummer 4187 0 Kelly Stouffer 1987 6 crd Dave Krieg 4145 - 697 Tim Rattay 2000 212 sfo Jeff Garcia 4092 747 Mark Rypien 1986 146 was Doug Williams 4058 4867 Tom Flick 1981 90 was Steve Grogan 4004 0 Brian Sipe 1972 330 cle Bill Nelsen 3994 4847 Mike Phipps 1970 3 cle Bill Nelsen 3994 - 585 Philip Rivers 2004 4 sdg Doug Flutie 3994 678 Todd Marinovich 1991 24 rai Jay Schroeder 3886 - 37 Dan Manucci 1979 116 buf Joe Ferguson 3849 0 Dan Marino 1983 27 mia Dan Marino 3763 20856 Bob Holly 1982 291 was Joe Theismann 3680 0 Doug Hudson 1987 186 kan Bill Kenney 3664 0 Rusty Hilger 1985 143 rai Jim Plunkett 3659 - 394 Shaun King 1999 50 tam Brad Johnson 3629 410 Drew Brees 2001 32 sdg Doug Flutie 3591 5998 Akili Smith 1999 3 cin Scott Mitchell 3568 0 Charlie Batch 1998 60 det Scott Mitchell 3558 1399 Sammy Garza 1987 216 crd Neil Lomax 3530 0 Jarious Jackson 2000 214 den Gus Frerotte 3474 0 Billy Joe Tolliver 1989 51 sdg Jim McMahon 3402 718 Steve Bono 1985 142 min Tommy Kramer 3391 2119 Lynn Dickey 1971 56 oti Charley Johnson 3383 3756 Dan Pastorini 1971 3 oti Charley Johnson 3383 1143 Steve Ramsey 1970 126 nor Charley Johnson 3383 570 Billy Joe Hobert 1993 58 rai Jeff Hostetler 3383 179 Matt Cavanaugh 1978 50 nwe Steve Grogan 3317 406 Jonathan Quinn 1998 86 jax Mark Brunell 3282 - 243 Seneca Wallace 2003 110 sea Matt Hasselbeck 3235 59 Scott Covington 1999 245 cin Jeff Blake 3224 0 Jim Harbaugh 1987 26 chi Jim McMahon 3066 5447 Cliff Olander 1977 128 sdg Bill Munson 2967 0 Steve Myer 1976 93 sea Bill Munson 2933 0 Dave Walter 1987 307 cin Boomer Esiason 2916 0 Cody Carlson 1987 64 oti Warren Moon 2886 478 Kordell Stewart 1995 60 pit Mike Tomczak 2854 2417 Kyle Boller 2003 19 rav Kordell Stewart 2842 87 Sage Rosenfels 2001 109 was Brian Griese 2813 397 Matt Schaub 2004 90 atl Michael Vick 2738 645 Mike Kruczek 1976 47 pit Terry Bradshaw 2729 - 162 Carson Palmer 2003 1 cin Jon Kitna 2722 4095 Ken O'Brien 1983 24 nyj Richard Todd 2701 5218 David Norrie 1986 291 sea Ken O'Brien 2654 0 Todd Blackledge 1983 7 kan Bill Kenney 2580 - 98 Steve Bradley 1986 316 cin Jim McMahon 2573 0 Rohan Davey 2002 117 nwe Tom Brady 2571 0 Frank Reich 1985 57 buf Vince Ferragamo 2383 440 Jim Miller 1994 178 pit Mike Tomczak 2297 808 Steve Beuerlein 1987 110 rai Jay Schroeder 2294 4868 Chris Weinke 2001 106 car Rodney Peete 2263 0 Randy Fasani 2002 137 car Rodney Peete 2263 0 Koy Detmer 1997 207 phi Rodney Peete 2259 - 134 Marc Wilson 1980 15 rai Jim Plunkett 2234 1079 Jeff Rutledge 1979 246 ram Pat Haden 2221 104 Steve Fuller 1979 23 kan Mike Livingston 2218 726 Brett Favre 1991 33 atl Don Majkowski 2089 15851 Ty Detmer 1992 230 gnb Don Majkowski 2089 338 Peyton Manning 1998 1 clt Peyton Manning 2077 15664 David Carr 2002 1 htx Tony Banks 2026 772 Kerry Collins 1995 5 car Steve Beuerlein 1999 6119 Brent Pease 1987 295 oti Warren Moon 1924 - 218 Rob Johnson 1995 99 jax Mark Brunell 1908 1079 Dave Ragone 2003 88 htx Tony Banks 1888 0 Gary Hogeboom 1980 133 dal Danny White 1874 1311 Gary Keithley 1973 45 crd Jim Hart 1822 0 Mike Moroski 1979 154 atl Steve Bartkowski 1815 229 Mark Miller 1978 68 cle Brian Sipe 1797 0 Anthony Dilweg 1989 74 gnb Don Majkowski 1791 0 Pat Sullivan 1972 40 atl Bob Berry 1775 - 283 Mark Brunell 1993 118 gnb Steve Beuerlein 1770 8349 John Witkowski 1984 160 det Gary Danielson 1763 0 Mike Machurek 1982 154 det Gary Danielson 1763 0 Ben Roethlisberger 2004 11 pit Ben Roethlisberger 1757 2371 A.J. Feeley 2001 155 phi Donovan McNabb 1756 60 Spergon Wynn 2000 183 cle Daunte Culpepper 1724 0 Jesse Freitas 1974 133 sdg Virgil Carter 1656 0 Neal Jeffrey 1975 423 sdg Virgil Carter 1656 0 Bob Avellini 1975 135 chi Virgil Carter 1656 - 262 Bill Musgrave 1991 106 sfo Steve Young 1639 - 47 Scott Bull 1976 177 sfo Jim Plunkett 1638 0 Eric Hipple 1980 85 det Gary Danielson 1637 548 Brian St. Pierre 2003 163 pit Charlie Batch 1635 0 Steve Grogan 1975 116 nwe Jim Plunkett 1612 6009 Will Furrer 1992 107 chi Jim Harbaugh 1557 0 Peter Tom Willis 1990 63 chi Jim Harbaugh 1557 - 220 Rodney Peete 1989 141 det Eric Hipple 1527 2303 Chuck Fusina 1979 133 tam Doug Williams 1523 0 Sam Adkins 1977 254 sea Jim Zorn 1508 0 Jeff Komlo 1979 231 det Gary Danielson 1498 0 Kurt Kittner 2002 158 atl Michael Vick 1494 0 Ken Anderson 1971 67 cin Virgil Carter 1478 11726 Neil O'Donnell 1990 70 pit Bubby Brister 1329 4898 Joey Harrington 2002 3 det Ty Detmer 1307 453 Mike McMahon 2001 149 det Ty Detmer 1307 - 321 Gibran Hamdan 2003 232 was Rob Johnson 1277 0 Brock Huard 1999 77 sea Trent Dilfer 1220 78 John Elway 1983 1 den Steve DeBerg 1207 13164 Gary Kubiak 1983 197 den Steve DeBerg 1207 - 87 Steve Dils 1979 97 min Tommy Kramer 1173 275 Andre Ware 1990 7 det Rodney Peete 1161 - 16 Tim Couch 1999 1 cle Ty Detmer 1154 756 Gary Marangi 1974 70 buf Joe Ferguson 1150 - 467 Leo Hart 1971 59 atl Bob Berry 1135 0 Scott Campbell 1984 191 pit David Woodley 1110 12 Chris Chandler 1988 76 clt Gary Hogeboom 1088 5107 Jack Trudeau 1986 47 clt Gary Hogeboom 1088 466 Kim McQuilken 1974 69 atl Bob Lee 1038 0 Drew Bledsoe 1993 1 nwe Drew Bledsoe 1031 7953 Archie Manning 1971 2 nor Ed Hargett 1023 2820 Bobby Scott 1971 340 nor Ed Hargett 1023 - 257 Danny Wuerffel 1997 99 nor Kerry Collins 1021 0 Parnell Dickinson 1976 183 tam Steve Spurrier 1013 0 Neil Graff 1972 414 min Jim Plunkett 1012 0 Brian McClure 1986 313 buf Jim Kelly 964 0 Rick McIvor 1984 80 crd Neil Lomax 936 0 Joe Montana 1979 82 sfo Steve DeBerg 888 15151 Bill Cappleman 1970 51 min Gary Cuozzo 887 0 David Whitehurst 1977 206 gnb Bobby Douglass 885 89 Dennis Sproul 1978 200 gnb Bobby Douglass 885 0 Bubby Brister 1986 67 pit Mark Malone 877 1330 Jake Plummer 1997 42 crd Dave M. Brown 847 4919 Chris Greisen 1999 239 crd Dave M. Brown 847 0 Donovan McNabb 1999 2 phi Donovan McNabb 835 7443 Jeff Carlson 1989 102 ram Vinny Testaverde 782 0 Joe Hamilton 2000 234 tam Eric Zeier 755 0 Matt Robinson 1977 227 nyj Marty Domres 733 - 320 Rick Mirer 1993 2 sea John Friesz 730 - 107 Gary Huff 1973 33 chi Bobby Douglass 730 0 Joe Barnes 1974 316 chi Bobby Douglass 730 0 Larry Cipa 1974 373 nor Archie Manning 720 - 70 Mike Cherry 1997 171 nyg Dave M. Brown 667 0 Danny Kanell 1996 130 nyg Dave M. Brown 667 - 367 Chris Miller 1987 13 atl Steve Dils 667 3344 Rich Campbell 1981 6 gnb Lynn Dickey 647 0 Troy Aikman 1989 1 dal Steve Beuerlein 625 8072 Don Majkowski 1987 255 gnb Don Majkowski 612 1785 Tony Sacca 1992 46 crd Timm Rosenbach 599 0 Joe Gilliam 1972 273 pit Terry Bradshaw 591 229 Cody Pickett 2004 217 sfo Tim Rattay 582 0 Bert Jones 1973 2 clt Marty Domres 577 5895 Joe Germaine 1999 101 ram Paul Justin 569 0 Gus Frerotte 1994 197 was Gus Frerotte 539 3423 Vince Evans 1977 140 chi Mike Phipps 537 947 Mike Pagel 1982 84 clt Mike Pagel 536 900 Art Schlichter 1982 4 clt Mike Pagel 536 0 Heath Shuler 1994 3 was John Friesz 515 - 404 Blair Kiel 1984 281 tam Gary Hogeboom 498 128 Bob Gagliano 1981 319 kan Steve Fuller 487 124 Doug Williams 1978 17 tam Doug Williams 474 4668 Scott Zolak 1991 84 nwe Hugh Millen 473 - 33 Cade McNown 1999 12 chi Shane Matthews 466 188 Jim Plunkett 1971 1 nwe Jim Plunkett 403 3186 Pat Ryan 1978 281 nyj Matt Robinson 378 325 Joe Ferguson 1973 57 buf Dennis Shaw 378 4912 Dennis Shaw 1970 30 buf Dennis Shaw 378 - 683 John Friesz 1990 138 sdg Bob Gagliano 354 1318 Steve Bartkowski 1975 1 atl Scott Hunter 323 3996 Trent Dilfer 1994 6 tam Craig Erickson 298 1644 Norris Weese 1974 99 ram Steve Ramsey 293 420 Craig Kupp 1990 135 nyg Chris Chandler 293 0 Quincy Carter 2001 53 dal Quincy Carter 218 664 Jim Bob Taylor 1983 280 clt Mike Pagel 148 0 Mark Reed 1981 207 nyg Mike Pagel 148 0 Terry Bradshaw 1970 1 pit Terry Bradshaw 122 7170 Craig Krenzel 2004 148 chi Rex Grossman 96 0 Phil Simms 1979 7 nyg Joe Pisarcik 78 7238 Randy Dean 1977 117 nyg Joe Pisarcik 78 0 Scott Brunner 1980 145 nyg Phil Simms 18 - 211 Steve DeBerg 1977 275 dal none 0 5948 Bill Kenney 1978 333 mia none 0 3914 Randy Hedberg 1977 196 tam Gary Huff 0 0 Jeb Blount 1976 50 rai none 0 0
Occasionally (Marino and Bledsoe are examples), a QB will be so good by his third year and his "mentor QBs" will be so bad that the QB himself will become the mentor QB. Generally, this means the mentor QBs were essentially nonexistent -- guys who weren't very good and didn't stick around very long.
I didn't do an exhaustive analysis of the data, so perhaps you guys can find something interesting in here. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
This entry was posted on Monday, April 20th, 2009 at 7:04 am and is filed under History. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

If the mentor and protege are on the same team together for any significant amount of time, I'd imagine that much of the correlation between their performances could be explained by surrounding teammates. For example, when Cassel took over for Brady he was handed the keys to a Ferrari of an offense. Or when Boller took over the Ravens offense, he was throwing to Travis Taylor as his #1 WR. I realize that's not the case for many situations (like Garcia going to Oakland), but it would apply to many of the cases.
Another factor to consider is quarterback coaching. Some teams simply do not have a QB coach designated for that area of responsibility. Other teams do. I do not have statistical data to back this up but I offer a theory - that if a young quarterback is to be groomed for starting duties he will be helped by a high-caliber veteran and/or a coach who does quality control - i.e. breaking down game films to help the quarterback learn how playbook calls unfold in real game situations and where his teammates come into play, given various defenses. Also, the quarterback position is the most difficult of all in terms of decision making. Intelligence and quick learning capabilities factor in as well. Some of these things cannot be absorbed even with veteran QBs there to provide tutelage. The analogy given is that quarterbacks are like pitchers in baseball - you don't know how they're going to do until you see them in play. That was uttered by SI's Paul Zimmermann and still holds true.
Interesting facts, though, and a great primer for study.
Odd that Steve DeBerg appears with 3 nobodies. After losing his first 3 or 4 (counting Tampa twice) starter jobs to Montana, Elway, Young & Testaverde, he kept getting picked up by teams hoping he'd do it again.
Strange way to get over 34,000 yards in a career.