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How teams are built, revisited

Posted by Doug on Monday, April 27, 2009

About a year and a half ago, I posted this batch of data on how teams are built. In it, I looked at where teams' 22 starters come from. But that's sub-optimal, because some starters are more important than others and also because backups have value too.

That post was written in the pre-AV era here at p-f-r. This weekend's draft inspired me to revisit it using the entire roster (weighted by AV) instead of just the starters.

I've broken things down by decade and by team quality (bad = 6 or fewer wins, mediocre = 7--9 wins, good = 10+ wins). The numbers in each category represent the aggregate percentage of the teams' AV that came from that category:

1980 -- 1989, bad teams
==============================
First round picks         23.6
Second round picks        14.9
Third/fourth round picks  19.3
Fifth round and later     28.7
Undrafted                 13.5

Drafted by team           80.5
Acquired via other means  19.5

Age 24 and younger        28.9
Age 25 to 27              37.8
Age 28 to 30              26.2
Age 31 and older           7.2

1980 -- 1989, mediocre teams
==============================
First round picks         25.2
Second round picks        14.7
Third/fourth round picks  18.3
Fifth round and later     28.5
Undrafted                 13.3

Drafted by team           82.1
Acquired via other means  17.9

Age 24 and younger        25.4
Age 25 to 27              37.1
Age 28 to 30              28.4
Age 31 and older           9.1

1980 -- 1989, good teams
==============================
First round picks         24.7
Second round picks        17.1
Third/fourth round picks  18.2
Fifth round and later     27.5
Undrafted                 12.5

Drafted by team           82.7
Acquired via other means  17.3

Age 24 and younger        21.9
Age 25 to 27              37.5
Age 28 to 30              30.2
Age 31 and older          10.4

1990 -- 1999, bad teams
==============================
First round picks         25.4
Second round picks        16.3
Third/fourth round picks  20.1
Fifth round and later     25.3
Undrafted                 13.0

Drafted by team           69.5
Acquired via other means  30.5

Age 24 and younger        25.2
Age 25 to 27              35.4
Age 28 to 30              30.3
Age 31 and older           9.1

1990 -- 1999, mediocre teams
==============================
First round picks         25.9
Second round picks        16.4
Third/fourth round picks  18.7
Fifth round and later     25.4
Undrafted                 13.6

Drafted by team           68.8
Acquired via other means  31.2

Age 24 and younger        19.9
Age 25 to 27              34.8
Age 28 to 30              32.5
Age 31 and older          12.8

1990 -- 1999, good teams
==============================
First round picks         26.6
Second round picks        16.8
Third/fourth round picks  19.0
Fifth round and later     25.0
Undrafted                 12.7

Drafted by team           72.9
Acquired via other means  27.1

Age 24 and younger        17.6
Age 25 to 27              35.0
Age 28 to 30              32.8
Age 31 and older          14.6

2000 -- 2007, bad teams
==============================
First round picks         24.6
Second round picks        18.0
Third/fourth round picks  22.3
Fifth round and later     18.8
Undrafted                 16.2

Drafted by team           68.5
Acquired via other means  31.5

Age 24 and younger        23.4
Age 25 to 27              34.5
Age 28 to 30              30.3
Age 31 and older          11.8

2000 -- 2007, mediocre teams
==============================
First round picks         28.0
Second round picks        18.4
Third/fourth round picks  21.1
Fifth round and later     17.8
Undrafted                 14.7

Drafted by team           68.8
Acquired via other means  31.2

Age 24 and younger        22.9
Age 25 to 27              32.1
Age 28 to 30              33.2
Age 31 and older          11.8

2000 -- 2007, good teams
==============================
First round picks         29.2
Second round picks        16.8
Third/fourth round picks  21.9
Fifth round and later     17.6
Undrafted                 14.5

Drafted by team           72.4
Acquired via other means  27.6

Age 24 and younger        20.4
Age 25 to 27              35.1
Age 28 to 30              32.8
Age 31 and older          11.6

This entry was posted on Monday, April 27th, 2009 at 4:50 AM and filed under General, NFL Draft. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Skip to the end and leave a response. Trackbacks are closed.

7 Responses to “How teams are built, revisited”

  1. Downpuppy said:

    It looks like bad teams are slightly more willing to play kids, but if you look at the total AV per team, instead of percentages, are they really just getting less from the old guys?

  2. Gary said:

    Very good analysis, Doug. It would be interesting to include also 2008, since many drafted players don't appear as drafted yet in the site.

  3. JKL said:

    They used to have alot more draft rounds, so free agents today may have been 9th round picks in 1985. I find it interesting that the percentage of production coming from guys drafted 5th round and beyond + undrafted is decreasing over time. Within each time period, the good teams had less production coming from later rounds than bad teams. But the good teams in the 80's got 40% of their value from late round guys, while the bad teams today are getting 35% and the good teams 32.1%.

    Are teams getting a little better at drafting the guys with potential by round 4? Relatively speaking, are there fewer Richard Dents than there used to be?

  4. NewsToTom said:

    Interesting post, Doug.

    One thing that jumped out immediately is the good teams in the post-1990 era get more contribution from their own drafted players, and in particular their first round picks (though this latter trend is present in all 3 periods).

    Another trend-in the 1980's and 1990's, good teams had more contributions from veteran (31+) players than mediocre teams, which had more contributions from veterans than bad teams. In the 2000's, though, it's flat among all three types.

  5. MattieShoes said:

    So better teams are using more first round picks, more guys in their prime, more veterans, and they hold on to their draft picks better. Makes sense... :-)

    It'd be interesting to see if this sort of information helps predict record in year+1... Using year N record or Pythagorean record , then see if any of this has any significant impact on predicting future success/failure.

  6. Jerry said:

    JKL,

    There are fewer rounds now, but there are more teams. That also means that more players go in the first three rounds than did 30 years ago.

    Of course, we still see the occasional Tom Brady or James Harrison.

  7. The Pencil Neck said:

    To me, the important thing appears to be that winning teams keep the guys they draft and losing teams look more for outside help. The other stuff, like the ages and the pick stats don't look statistically significant to me.

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