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ShareThisReggie Wayne
I got an email a few days ago with the subject line: "Idea for a blog post." Because coming up with one entire idea per day can get to be a grind after awhile, sending me such an email is Step One to getting on my good side. I can use all the help I can get. But Step Two is the tricky part. That's where most people stumble, because it's a pretty sizeable leap from a subject line to an actual idea for a blog post. Most of the time the ideas are good, but often they are not feasible. Sometimes, though, they just don't make sense.
I'll let you be the judge on this one. Here is the email in full:
Man did Reggie Wayne have a down year. How does N+1 look for 27-29 year old WRs who ranked between 5-10 in N-1 and dropped at least 10 spots/out of the top 20 in year N while missing <3 games?
If that makes sense to you, you are an odd bird. If not, consider yourself lucky and allow me to translate:
Man did Reggie Wayne have a down year? If we distill his season down to its bare essentials, what we see is a young-to-prime-aged wide receiver who had an extremely good year in 2004 (he was the #8 ranked fantasy WR) and then followed it up with a disappointing 2005 (#21 ranked WR). Historically, have guys fitting that profile tended to bounce back the following year?
This will be my first post that officially gets categorized in the "Fantasy" category. While this is not a fantasy football blog, I would hope that many of the posts have some fantasy relevance anyway. Likewise, when a post is tagged as "Fantasy," I would hope that wouldn't prevent it from being interesting to non-fantasy types. The only thing you need to know is that players are ranked according to the scoring system and valuation scheme found on this page.
Let's get to the numbers. Following the emailer's suggestions, we label the good year Year N-1, the disappointing year Year N and the following year Year N+1. We require the wide receiver to be aged 27--29 in Year N+1, we require him to have finished between #5 and #10 in Year N-1, and #20 or lower in year N (while not missing more than two games). Here are all such players since 1978:
==== rank ====
Player YearN N-1 N N+1
==========================================
Eddie Brown 1989 5 25 17
Plaxico Burress 2003 8 28 43
Robert Clark 1991 10 34 127
Willie Davis 1994 9 28 47
Donald Driver 2003 10 51 10
Michael Haynes 1993 9 33 18
Tim McGee 1990 8 46 30
Stanley Morgan 1983 10 26 31
Peerless Price 2003 7 31 50
Sterling Sharpe 1991 8 21 1
John Taylor 1990 9 21 10
Hines Ward 2004 6 28 10
Steve Watson 1985 8 21 35
Reggie Wayne 2005 8 21 ??
Calvin Williams 1994 10 38 43
Aside from Wayne, there are 14 players on that list. I'll let you decide for yourself to what extent each of them truly is comparable to Reggie Wayne. Four of the fourteen returned to the top 10 the following year. Five of the fourteen ever returned to the top 10. Only Sterling Sharpe had more than one additional top 10 season in him, although the book is obviously not yet closed on Burress and Ward.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 19th, 2006 at 5:31 am and is filed under Fantasy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Using my 8:30 AM EST percentiles, it looks like about 45% bounced back, 45% regressed further, and 10% were about the same. I think to estimate with any accuracy, you're going to have to look up each of these guys (not our host, but whoever is interested) and find out what else changed.
Logic tells me Wayne should do better, because James is gone and they will have to rely on someone else for production. Then again, it could also mean that they cant put an extra man in the box--however, didnt defenses drop 7 into coverage ALL LAST YEAR? So James shouldnt affect Wayne's production. I'd guess you'll find him in the top 10 again.
Wayne played less than a half in week 16 and not at all in week 17. If he had kept up his avg. production from the first 14 weeks, he would have finished with roughly 92 catches and 1,180 yards. I was a slightly disappointed Wayne owner myself, but rationally it's hard to see those numbers in a negative light.
To expand on Gregg's line of thinking, not only did Wayne not play the last 1.5 games last season, but the first few games of the season the Colts were in a run-first defense mode. Remember the first few games of the season when the Colts beat Bal 24-7, Jax 10-3, and Cle 13-6? Not exactly Colts football. With the loss of Edge and a few of their key defensive players the Colts should be forced into more passing situations this year as compared to last, and consequently, Waynes numbers should improve.
Wayne was interesting to me because he did something pretty rare: He improved every year in the NFL in receptions, yards, AND touchdowns. To improve in each category three straight years isn't easy, and he generally made large jumps each year. At some point, you knew it would end -- but if you were to put his numbers on a graph, last year's numbers look really out of whack.
So what does 2006 hold? I think Wayne's an excellent talent, so I think the numbers Doug ran were pretty positive. John Taylor (and to a lesser extent, Donald Driver) is an excellent comparison in terms of supporting cast: both played alongside a HOF WR and a HOF QB (although Taylor had Young in his N+1 season, and Montana most of his N-1 season). I think Wayne's better than most of the flameouts on this list, and there seems to be at least some positive evidence to suggest a return to the top-10 for Wayne. Very interesting idea to run Doug. Thanks.
Sharpe only dropped so far in 1991 because the Packers were being quarterbacked by the immortal Mike Tomczak.
Sometimes it is easier and more informative to look beyond the statistics. For instance, if you look at the receivers on that list, most of them either weren't #1 receivers in N-1 or saw their numbers decline because they were no longer the #1 receiver in N or N+1. Sterling Sharpe is such an obvious exception both because of his greater talent compared to most of the other names, and because he remained a #1 receiver. Thus it stands to reason that Reggie Wayne's production will continue to fluctuate as long as he isn't the clear #1 option for the Colts. As Harrison continues to age, he and Wayne will probably be something along the lines of #1 and #1A, but it still means you cannot expect him to post stellar numbers with the consistency of a Chad Johnson.
Here is an idea for something to write about.
Ashley Lelie has had the highest YPC average for the past two seasons. Does that translate into what we can expect of his future performance? Will he only be a vertical WR or will he develop into something more?
I think the Broncos are tired of waiting for him to develop. It's becoming clear that he is a devastating deep threat, but lacks the concentration to be a go-to guy on the pro level. Think of him as one of the best #3 options in football (problem being that he is a #2 right now).
But some believe that it's a result of Jake not being able to throw a deep pass well that Lelie hasn't developed. And that the Broncos don't effectively use him. They look at the Raiders game as evidence that he has the ability to run the intermediate routes but Denver doesn't utilize him. Personally I don't know but I am curious as to whether history is on his side to develop into something more then just deep threat.
UPDATE: Reggie Wayne is the number 2 fantasy WR.
JD Bolick cracks me up. Reggie Wayne can't be as consistent as Chad Johnson? You have to be kidding me. First of all Chad signed some big contract before the season started so you knew there would be a decrease in numbers.
Anyway, I bought a magazine (Fantasy Football Guide-Professional Edition-2006). This morning I didn't have a lot to do and I ran across the magazine. I reviewed the mock draft. JD Bolick was one of the owners that participated in a mock draft. There were twelve teams and the scoring system was 6pts per td, 1 pt per 10 yds rushing and receiving, 1 pt per 25 yds passing and some defensive points. JD Bolick had the second overall pick so he couldn't screw that pick up and he took LT. The second round-Randy Moss. Talk about a bust. Third round-Chris Chambers (bad pick) and fourth round he took Tony Gonzalez. A tight end in the fourth round! Fifth round he took Curtis Martin. He didn't he play this year, what was JD thinking? Sixth round he took Drew Bennett. Seventh round-Jake the Snake. Why would anyone want Jake as their starting QB in fantasy football. Eighth round-Adam Vinatieri, why would JD take a kicker in the eighth round? Ninth round-Carolina Panthers, Carolina's defense was awful this year. Tenth round-Favre, I won't even comment on that but if your only QB is Jake, then you better be backing him up. Eleven round-Ben Watson, after spending a fourth round pick on Tony G, go get a backup TE even though you only have one breathing RB. Twelfth round-Duce Staley, go get a RB that played in 5 games in 2005 so he he can play one game in 2006 (he had zero carries in 2006). Thirteenth round-Najeh Davenport, JD, the goal is to pick up RB's that will actually be in the game versus their arse on the bench. Fourteen round-NE Pats. Fifteen-Boerigter, that sleeper didn't pan out, in fact he didn't make the Colt roster and never played a down this year.
So JD had two QB's (Jake and Brett) I wouldrate that as a grade as no better than a D. His RB's are LT, Curtis Martin, Duce Staley and Najeh Davenport. His grade is an F even with LT. He had one RB that actually put numbers up! His receivers are Randy Moss, Chris Chambers, Tony Gonzalez, Drew Bennett, Ben Watson and Marc Boerigter. I would grade that a C-. I won't even comment on his kicker and defenses.
This JD is suppose to be an expert. He drafted the all-time worst team in the history of Fantasy Football. I know that I haven't seen a worst draft even by a ignorant rookie owner. JD, my dog-Corky or my ferret-Bandit could draft better than you! Write me before the next mock draft and I could give you some pointers.
I'm guessing that Mike must be someone I beat in a fantasy league. Or perhaps I stole his girlfriend, who knows?
Mike, mock drafts for magazines take place in late April or the first week in May. At that point, Curtis Martin was expected to play the '06 season. Your criticism of the Moss and Chambers picks are valid, although I find it perplexing that you would object to drafting a tight end in the fourth round. The best are worth that, in case you didn't know. Watson in the eleventh was a better value, so I conducted the draft like a real owner would, with the idea of trading Gonzalez for a RB.
As for my QBs, Plummer's demise was something of a surprise given that he was coming off three good seasons in Denver and the addition of Javon Walker had the impact I expected. You might also notice that Favre finished 11th among fantasy quarterbacks.
In any case, I made some mistakes, but I always do and I always own up to them when they happen. You'll find that to err is human, and yet even so, my overall record of accuracy through the years is fairly impressive. You may also be interested to know that I've only lost one pay league in my entire life (I won another last year, in case you wondered).