The Greatest Field Goal Kickers Ever, Part III
Posted by Chase Stuart on Wednesday, June 17, 2009
On Monday, I explained the methodology behind the grade for every kicker-season from 1960-2007. Yesterday, I looked at the best and worst single seasons over that time period. Today, we'll look at the best kickers by career.
The table below shows each kicker's career grade, using the familiar weight of 100% of the player's best season, 95% of his second best, 90% of his third best, etc. This is useful because when we think of Jan Stenerud, we're not thinking of his awful 1985 season -- we're thinking of him at his best. If you have a bunch of good seasons and several more average ones, a bad season as a very young or old player won't kill your career rating, and I think that is appropriate. Here's the list of the top 75 kickers from '60 to '07.
rk kicker VAL rkyr 1 Jan Stenerud 136.2 1967 2 Nick Lowery 124.6 1978 3 Morten Andersen 109.6 1982 4 Gary Anderson 100.4 1982 5 Eddie Murray 83.7 1980 6 Garo Yepremian 82.7 1966 7 Mark Moseley 76.0 1970 8 Fred Cox 73.6 1963 9 Jim Turner 73.1 1964 10 Jason Hanson 68.5 1992 11 Mike Vanderjagt 65.8 1998 12 Norm Johnson 65.1 1982 13 Matt Stover 63.7 1991 14 John Carney 63.1 1988 15 Jim Bakken 61.9 1962 16 George Blanda 58.5 1949 17 Don Cockroft 54.9 1968 18 Jason Elam 54.3 1993 19 John Kasay 54.2 1991 20 Al Del Greco 49.9 1984 21 Jeff Wilkins 47.0 1994 22 Pete Stoyanovich 43.2 1989 23 Horst Muhlmann 41.3 1969 24 Bruce Gossett 39.7 1964 25 Sam Baker 38.1 1953 26 Pat Leahy 37.2 1974 27 Errol Mann 36.0 1968 28 Tom Dempsey 35.2 1969 29 Mike Mercer 35.1 1961 30 Rafael Septien 35.0 1977 31 Ryan Longwell 34.5 1997 32 Doug Brien 33.8 1994 33 Efren Herrera 33.1 1974 34 Toni Fritsch 32.9 1971 35 Gene Mingo 32.4 1960 36 Gino Cappelletti 31.7 1960 37 Ray Wersching 31.4 1973 38 Raul Allegre 30.5 1983 39 Paul McFadden 29.2 1984 40 Don Chandler 28.8 1956 41 Rolf Benirschke 27.6 1977 42 Mick Luckhurst 27.5 1981 43 Shayne Graham 26.2 2001 44 Donald Igwebuike 25.5 1985 45 Joe Nedney 24.9 1996 46 Chester Marcol 24.9 1972 47 John Smith 24.0 1974 48 Adam Vinatieri 22.0 1996 49 Tony Zendejas 21.3 1985 50 John Leypoldt 20.2 1971 51 Todd Peterson 19.9 1994 52 Mike Hollis 19.3 1995 53 David Akers 18.7 1998 54 Dean Biasucci 18.6 1984 55 Chris Jacke 17.6 1989 56 Cary Blanchard 16.9 1992 57 Nate Kaeding 16.5 2004 58 George Blair 16.5 1961 59 Steve Christie 16.5 1990 60 Tony Franklin 15.5 1979 61 Matt Bahr 15.5 1979 62 Olindo Mare 13.8 1997 63 Rian Lindell 13.1 2000 64 Fuad Reveiz 12.9 1985 65 Pete Gogolak 12.8 1964 66 Rich Karlis 12.1 1982 67 Jeff Jaeger 11.4 1987 68 Jim Breech 11.0 1979 69 Josh Brown 10.9 2003 70 Mike Clark 10.2 1963 71 Bob Thomas 9.7 1975 72 Sebastian Janikowski 9.4 2000 73 George Fleming 9.2 1961 74 Pat Summerall 8.9 1952 75 Paul Edinger 8.4 2000
When I ranked the RBs, I had a separate formula which awarded 10 points each year to the best RB, 9 points to the second best, and so on. We can do the same thing for kickers. Lowery had two seasons as the NFL's top kicker (+20), four seasons as runner up (+36), two more seasons in the top three (+16), along with a #5, #7, two #9 and a #10 finish. That totals 87, the most in this system. Stenerud had three seasons atop the charts (+30), two more seasons at #2 (+18) or #3 (+16), one season at #5, one at #8, and three where he rounded out the top ten. Here are the rankings in this scoring system:
kicker VALUE rkyr Rk Score Nick Lowery 124.6 1978 87 Morten Andersen 109.6 1982 77 Jan Stenerud 136.2 1967 76 Gary Anderson 100.4 1982 70 Eddie Murray 83.7 1980 63 Mark Moseley 76.0 1970 56 Jason Hanson 68.5 1992 53 Norm Johnson 65.1 1982 53 Garo Yepremian 82.7 1966 52 Jim Turner 73.1 1964 52 Fred Cox 73.6 1963 51 Matt Stover 63.7 1991 51 George Blanda 58.5 1949 50 Don Cockroft 54.9 1968 49 Mike Vanderjagt 65.8 1998 47 Jason Elam 54.3 1993 46 Jim Bakken 61.9 1962 45 John Carney 63.1 1988 44 Gene Mingo 32.4 1960 42 Gino Cappelletti 31.7 1960 39 Bruce Gossett 39.7 1964 38 John Kasay 54.2 1991 37 Al Del Greco 49.9 1984 36 Errol Mann 36.0 1968 33 Pete Stoyanovich 43.2 1989 32 Don Chandler 28.8 1956 32 Jeff Wilkins 47.0 1994 30 Sam Baker 38.1 1953 29 Mike Mercer 35.1 1961 29 Pat Leahy 37.2 1974 27 Ryan Longwell 34.5 1997 26 Adam Vinatieri 22.0 1996 26 Tom Dempsey 35.2 1969 24 Doug Brien 33.8 1994 24 Toni Fritsch 32.9 1971 24 Tony Zendejas 21.3 1985 22 Efren Herrera 33.1 1974 21 John Smith 24.0 1974 21 Ray Wersching 31.4 1973 20 Rolf Benirschke 27.6 1977 20 David Akers 18.7 1998 20 Dean Biasucci 18.6 1984 20 Tony Franklin 15.5 1979 20 Horst Muhlmann 41.3 1969 19 Chester Marcol 24.9 1972 19 Chris Jacke 17.6 1989 19 Steve Christie 16.5 1990 19 Paul McFadden 29.2 1984 18 John Leypoldt 20.2 1971 18 Fuad Reveiz 12.9 1985 18 Paul Hornung - 4.4 1957 18 Rafael Septien 35.0 1977 17 Raul Allegre 30.5 1983 17 Todd Peterson 19.9 1994 17 Jeff Jaeger 11.4 1987 17 Joe Danelo - 8.2 1975 17 Joe Nedney 24.9 1996 16 George Blair 16.5 1961 16 Pete Gogolak 12.8 1964 16 Bob Thomas 9.7 1975 16 Paul Edinger 8.4 2000 16 Martin Gramatica 3.4 1999 16 Roger Ruzek -10.2 1987 16 Rian Lindell 13.1 2000 15 Scott Norwood 3.3 1985 15
Before I get to the trivia answers, I want to make three quick HOF notes.
- Nick Lowery's HOF case is pretty strong. Comparing across positions is very difficult, but if you want to assume that Stenerud is a worthy HOFer, then I think Lowery should be considered one, as well. Stenerud may be slightly better, and he likely had a greater impact on the game (as Gary alluded to in the comments to Monday's post, Stenerud was one of the first soccer style kickers and he changed the way many viewed the kicker position). But still, Lowery was so accurate and successful for so long, that he should be a HOFer. And, of course, his numbers are not inflated by playing in a domed stadium or a particularly nice climate. Lowery kicked Stenerud out of KC in 1980 -- the plackicker's version of Young replacing Montana.
- At least for now -- before we break field goal length down into even smaller increments and before we introduce some sort of weather variable to our formula -- I feel confident in stating that Morten Andersen was better than Gary Anderson. This seems to be the prevailing opinion, at least among those who can separate out which was which. What's more important, though, is that both are clearly ahead of everyone not named Stenerud or Lowery. Those four kickers are in a tier of their own. Is Andersen a HOFer? He's got the career records (points, field goals made, games) but I would still put Lowery in before Andersen.
- Some will make a case for Vinatieri for the HOF one day. He certainly will look much better once I figure out how to include some sort of variable to boost up cold weather kickers. But outside of that, Vinatieri's HOF case is absurd. Even if he didn't have the two missed field goals in Super Bowl XXXVIII, his history of clutch performances is not nearly enough to boost an otherwise weak resume. Vinatieri will get some love from those who don't know how to grade kickers, from those who love the Patriots, and from those who enjoy sparking controversy, but he's not a legitimate candidate when there's just one pure placekicker in the HOF.
Finally, here are the trivia answers from Monday's post.
1) Who holds the record for most missed field goals in a season?
2) What is the record for most extra points missed in a season and what three kickers hold it?
3) What kicker has the lowest single season field goal percentage, minimum one field goal made?
4) Who was the first soccer style kicker, what team signed him and in what year?
5) What two kickers hold the record for longest field goal made?
6) What kicker holds the record for most consecutive extra points made?
7) What three kickers hold the record for most XP made in a game?
8) What two kickers hold the record for most field goals attempted in a season?
9) What kicker holds the record for most consecutive field goals made?
10) Who are the only five kickers to make 100% of their field goal attempts in a single season, minimum ten attempts? Hint: The fifth kicker joined the group in 2008.
11) Who attempted the most field goals in a single game?
12) Name the three kickers in the HOF? Hint: Only one of the players was a pure kicker.
13) Who is the only kicker to win an NFL MVP award?
14) Recycled trivia edition: What player/kicker combination have combined for the most touchdowns/point after touchdowns?
15) What kicker has the most points in a season?
16) What kicker has made and attempted the most extra points in a season?
17) What kicker has made the most field goals in a single season?
18) What three kickers have hit three 50-yard field goals in a single game?
19) Who holds the Johnny Unitas kicking record -- most consecutive games with a field goal made?
20) What kicker holds the record for most field goals made in a game?
21) How many kickers have been selected in the first round of the draft?
22) What kicker set the record with 18 consecutive years with one team?
23) What kicker spent one year with four different teams?
24) What two kickers hold the record for playing for the most teams?
25) What kicker holds the record for most Pro Bowls made?
26) What kicker holds the record for most first team All Pro honors?
27) Who has made the most field goals in NFL history?
28) Who has missed the most field goals in NFL history?
29) Who has scored the most points in NFL history?
30) Who has made the most extra points in NFL history?
31) What two kickers have made the most 50 yard field goals in a single season?
1. Paul Hornung, 1964, 26 missed field goals.
2. Eight, by Tom Dempsey (1976), Steve Little (1979) and David Trout (1981).
3. Bob Timberlake, with a 7% success rate after going 1-for-15 in 1965.
4. Pete Gogolak, Buffalo Bills, 1964.
5. Tom Dempsey, 1970 and Jason Elam, 1998 each hit 63-yard field goals.
6. Matt Stover, with 386 consecutive extra points made and counting; he set the record in an otherwise nondescript loss to the Giants this season. Floyd Turner caught the last touchdown pass that preceded a Stover failed PAT.
7. Pat Harder (1948), Bob Waterfield (1950) and Charlie Gogolak (1966) with nine.
8. Bruce Gossett (1966) and Curt Knight (1971) with forty-nine attempts.
9. Mike Vanderjagt, 42 field goals made, 2002-2004.
10. Tony Zendejas (1991, 17-17), Gary Anderson (1998, 35-35), Jeff Wilkins (2000, 17-17), Mike Vanderjagt (2003, 37-37) and Garrett Hartley (2008, 13-13); only Zendejas (Los Angeles Rams) did not play for a dome team.
11. Jim Bakken, 1967, with nine attempts and seven field goals made in a 28-14 win against the Steelers.
12. Lou Groza, George Blanda and Jan Stenerud.
13. Mark Moseley, 1982.
14. Jim Brown and Lou Groza is almost certainly the answer, but we don't have confirmation data on that; the modern record is shared by Moseley and John Riggins and Jerry Rice and Mike Cofer.
15. Gary Anderson, 164 points, 1998. Bonus answer: Paul Hornung, with 176 points scored in 1960, but 90 of those points came on touchdowns.
16. Stephen Gostkowski, 74 for 74, 2007.
17. Neil Rackers, 40 field goals made, 2005.
18. Morten Andersen (1995), Kris Brown (2004) and Neil Rackers (2005).
19. Matt Stover, 38 consecutive games, 1999-2001.
20. Rob Bironas, eight, 2007.
21. Three. Sebastian Janikowski (2000), Steve Little (1978) and Charlie Gogolak (1966). Tony Zendejas was also a first round pick in the 1984 Supplemental Draft.
22. Pat Leahy, 18 seasons, New York Jets.
23. Jose Cortez, 2005, Philadelphia, Dallas, Indianapolis and San Francisco.
24. Eddie Murray and Joe Nedney, seven.
25. Morten Andersen, seven.
26. Morten Andersen, three.
27. Morten Andersen, 565 field goals made.
28. George Blanda, 304 field goals missed.
29. Morten Andersen, 2,544 points scored.
30. George Blanda, 959 extra points made.
31. Morten Andersen, 1995 and Jason Hanson, 2008, with eight. Hanson was a perfect 8-8.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 17th, 2009 at 7:27 AM and filed under Best/Worst Ever. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Skip to the end and leave a response. Trackbacks are closed.
I am fairly certain that Tomlinson/Kaeding and Harrison/Vanderjagt both have more TDs/XPs than Rice/Cofer and Riggins/Moseley. Since 2004, LT has scored 99 TDs, and between 1998 and 2005 (inclusive), whan Vanderjagt was the Colt's kicker, Marvin scored 96 TDs. I am not sure which is ahead though, because of 2pt conversions.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 7:57 am | PermalinkYou could use the modern Mason-Dixon line (I-70) west of the Mississippi and then I-64 east of the river to separate cold weather kickers from non-cold and dome kickers.
This would make the modern list Seattle, Denver, KC, Green Bay, Chicago, Cincinatti, Cleveland, Buffalo, Baltimore, New England, New York (J&G), Pittsburg, Philly, and D.C.
Historically, that would still include teams like the St. Louis Cardinals, the first few years of the St. Louis Rams and the pre-metrodome Vikings among others.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 9:05 am | PermalinkFor most of my lifetime we've had pretty good kicking in Detroit. And Hanson has years left.
In this series I didn't see anything that indicated adjustments for having to kick from the right hash. Is that kind of data even available?
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 9:11 am | PermalinkAlthough Vinatieri clearly doesn't have a hall-of-fame case, I would have to say that the ability to make clutch kicks needs to be taken into account when ranking kickers. Take a guy like Mike Vanderjagt, he may have better career stats then Vinatieri, but I bet if you ask any coach in the league who they want attempting a field for them with :03 left, 99 percent will say Vinatieri.
As we all know, the thing that usually seperates hall of fame quarterbacks from non hall-of-fame reputations are ‘clutch’ drives (Think Elway’s drive, Montana in XXIII, Roethlisberger last year).
Kicker's shouldn't be any different, a consistently clutch kicker has more value to their team then a kicker with a lower career percentage in the clutch. In this case, the kicker isn't just costing their team three points, their costing them something more important, a win.
It's more or less a walk-off home run, and there are kickers here I wouldn't let anywhere near the ball at the end of the game.
If anyone has any thoughts on this, I'd love to hear them:
On that note, here are two clutch related questions…
32. Which three kickers hold the overtime record for most field goals made?
33. Which kicker holds the record for most overtime field goals made without a miss?
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 9:27 am | PermalinkPmac,
It was a recycled trivia question from here (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=473) that I probably should have double checked before re-posting.
That said, I've got Harrison/Vanderjagt at 89 (playoff and regular season combined), and Rice/Cofer and Riggins/Moseley at 93. I've got Tomlinson/Kaeding at 86.
I am rushing out here, so I may need to double-check this later, but that's what I've got. I apologize for not mentioning that my data combined the regular and post-season; I suspect you would be correct if we removed playoff numbers.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 9:46 am | PermalinkAs a technicality for question #21, Russell Erxleben was drafted by the Saints in the first round in 1979 with the intent that he would both punt and kick. He only attempted a few FGs, however, before he was relegated solely to punting duty.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 10:19 am | Permalinkalright, adding postseason numbers would definitely benefit Rice and Riggo more than Marvin and LT, so your numbers do sound right
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 10:45 am | PermalinkDo you have data on kickoffs? I'd like to see an analysis of the other half of the kicker's job before making judgments about the HOF. Football Outsiders has argued that kickoffs are more important than FGs (a good kickoff kicker is worth more than a good FG kicker). That might not have been true in the past, when the FG average was worse and there was more variability between kickers, but kickoffs were still a big part of a kicker's role.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 12:24 pm | PermalinkGreetings,
We actually are in the process of incorporating some stadium/city information onto PFR. Right now we have most of the data, we just are short on time. At some point we should be able to make some very cool weather/climate adjustments.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 12:28 pm | PermalinkDave/Vince: Unfortunately, I don't know where to find historical kicking data on either kick-offs or the hash a kicker was kicking from.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 12:32 pm | PermalinkRe: cold weather kicking: Thought should be given to the game-time temperature and not longitude and latitude. Here is a direct quote from Fred Cox prior to the 1970 NFC divisional playoff game in Bloomington, Minnesota: "If it's under 15 degrees you won't see us trying to kick any 50-yard field goals. You probably lose five to 10 yards a kick in those temperatures. I would say if it gets that cold the farthest field goal range will be 40 to 45 yards. There's no resiliency in the ball. It's like kicking a stone."
The temp that day had a high of 14 degrees and a low of zero. Add in wind chill factors and you may have a can of worms here. I believe some adjustments could be made for cold weather kicks, but I'd like to see the fine print on how that's done. Great analysis, BTW, Chase. Seems to pass the smell test right away.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 2:00 pm | PermalinkNFL.com has kickoff stats since 1991, which provides some info on the Lowery/Andersen/Anderson debate. It looks like Morten Andersen was one of the best kickoff guys in the league during the 90s, while Lowery was below average and Gary Anderson was close to average.
I'd guess that kickers tend kick farther earlier when they're younger, so Lowery and Gary Anderson might have been better than these stats suggest (Gary Anderson's 1991 was easily his best year in the data available). But that just makes Morten Andersen's decade that much more impressive. At ages 31-40 (from 1991-2000), Morten Andersen's ranked 1, 2, 3, 3, 1, 5, 6, 10, 11, and 2 in touchback percentage (min 30 att.). In average kickoff distance (min 30 att.), his ranks from 1992-2000 were 2, 3, 7, 1, 6, 10, 3, 6, and 4 (yardage data is not available from 1991). I'd give his ranks in net yardage, but that would take some calculations since the NFL site doesn't seem to have that number directly.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 2:41 pm | PermalinkI don't think wind-chill really works for footballs... Our warm bodies exude heat so we create a nimbus of warmer air around us, which the wind removes. But a football doesn't produce heat. It just falls to ambient temperature. It might get there slightly faster in wind, but it's still gonna get there.
I had a thought about cold weather kicks though -- If the balls are inflated to regulation pressure in normal temperatures and then they get left out in the cold, they'd basically deflate a bit. I don't know how the NFL does that though.
And good lord, I know *nothing* about field goal kickers before I watched football. I haven't even heard of the older ones. Andersen/Anderson, the recent ones, sure. But Jim Bakken? Jan Stenerud? Fred Cox? They dont even ring faint bells.
So in all your statistic digging, did you see any sort of ledge around the time they switched to undoctored balls for kickers? I know the kickers say it makes a difference, but I'm curious if it's reflected in their stats.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 7:12 pm | PermalinkVince, you know what else I'd be interested to see--compare Morten Andersen vs Nick Lowery in LONG DISTANCE ATTEMPTS. To me, this is what makes some kickers worth extra--the fact that their coach will LET THEM TRY IT from 55+. Nothing against Lowery, but I remember seeing Morten make a 60 yarder to end the half against the Bears in 89 or 90 that would have been good from 65--and it was right down the middle. Guys like Vinatieri & Vanderjagt wouldn't even get the chance--their coach would just order the "Hail Mary." This plus your kickoff data makes another interesting data point when comparing kickers.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 7:49 pm | PermalinkRE: the FO study with kickoff distance--the numbers show that FG% is very different when comparing from year to year, whereas KO distance is consistent.
Joseph, the NFL.com player pages include the longest FG made for each season, and if you go to the game log you can see the long for each game. Based on that (which might be missing some if a player hit more than one long FG in the same game), Morten Andersen made 8 FGs of 54+ yards in his career (the distances were 60, 59, 56, 55, 55, 55, 54, and 54); one was in 1985 and the rest were mid-career, 1991-97. Lowery made 5, all early in his career from 1980-87 (distances of 58, 58, 57, 54, and 54). So a slight edge to Morten, but not overwhelming. Gary Anderson, who is not holding up too well in this 3-way comparison, only had 2 (from 55 and 54), in 1984 & 1991.
Posted on 17-Jun-09 at 9:09 pm | PermalinkRe: cold weather kicking. I meant to say wind speeds not wind chill factors, sorry - copy and paste error. What I also forgot to cut and paste in was that teams probably already compensate for cold weather by simply not kicking a FG and rather punting or going for it on 4th down. Also, keeping the kicking balls warm on a cold day was always some thing that happened (I know all about Newton's law of cooling here too). All I have is anecdotal evidence, what I recall, and what I have read about. But what I lack is stats that would back up what Fred Cox said. I have to believe in what he asserts though. He was a scientist of sorts (chiropractor and inventor of the Nerf football). He played long enough to know what he was talking about and he most certainly spent A LOT of time in the pregame drills learning about his playing field and the conditions for kicking. Cox even had some of the earlier records that were broken with new marks - consecutive games with a FG (31 back in his day) and consecutive games scoring (151?) that appeared on the quiz with different kickers names.
Posted on 18-Jun-09 at 12:03 am | PermalinkI have to agree with Mr. Taco (#4) here. The legacy of any kicker is built on what they do in those game-winning situations when they're called on to be the hero. Gary Anderson will be remembered more for his one miss in 1998 than his "perfect season". Vanderjagt's high FG% is like Neil O'Donnell's low INT%. Everyone will just remember the times he shanked it wide right in the playoffs. Scott Norwood can't be discussed without SB 25's miss. Titan fans will groan at the mention of Del Greco. That's how kickers are remembered.
The ideal data you would want is the FGA and FGM (with lengths) in 4th QT/OT games that are tied or within one possession. That would be difficult for anything more than a decade ago, but that is the best way to judge it if you can get it. Even just the successful GW FG's would be a great start. This factor can't be ignored when evaluating kickers.
You see Shayne Graham 5 spots ahead of Vinatieri, and I think any NFL fan would just say no to that one. Vinatieri made more big FG's in one month than Graham has in 8 years. In fact I rememeber Graham kicking the Bengals out of the 06 playoffs with a late miss against the Steelers in week 17 that would have won the game and clinched that 6th seed.
Posted on 18-Jun-09 at 3:00 am | PermalinkWeather comes in many shapes and sizes, with varying impacts on the long snapper, holder, and/or kicker. Following is feedback we received on the topic.
Ryan Longwell:
“You’ve just got to hit the ball solid, whether it’s wind or rain or snow or a perfect day. You gotta hit the ball solid and you’ve got to start it on the line you’re aiming at. Whether that’s in Lambeau or in the Metrodome it really doesn’t differ. It’s just a lot less elements to factor in when you’re kicking in a covered stadium. Bitter cold is more mental than anything else. You just have to understand that the ball is not gonna fly. That same field goal that’ll fly 55 or 60 yards in August is probably going about 40 yards in December. You have to realize that the ball is going to be hard and it’s not going to fly very far.”
Jay Feely:
“In rain you have to slow down your approach a little bit, because of the time for the snapper and the holder to get a good snap and to catch it and put it down. Other than that you don’t kick it any differently. With wind you definitely do. You have to pick a spot maybe out wider because the wind is blowing across. If it’s in your face you’ve got to kick the ball a little lower, with a lower trajectory so that it doesn’t get up in the wind, to just die in the wind. There’s a lot of different things you have to do.”
Joe Nedney:
“All adjustments to the elements are made during the pre-game warm-up. Wind direction and intensity will alter the flight of the ball, and it's the responsibility of the kicker to figure all that out before game time so he can do his job successfully during the game. Rain usually affects the snapper and holder more because they are handling the ball. Field conditions vary in wet or cold weather and footing can be challenging. Again, this should be handled during pre-game.”
Robbie Gould:
“When kicking in the rain, you have to be aware of your plant foot. With the wind you have to judge it and play the ball according to how far the wind may pull the ball left or right. In bitter cold, you just have to hit a low-ball when you are further out.”
Mason Crosby:
“The adjustments are all slight. I may change plant shoe cleats to longer ones for rain. It all depends on the field. In windy conditions the main thing is to not over play the wind or over think it. Inside 40 yards, most winds will not affect the ball an extreme amount. Bitter cold is mainly controlling and containing body warmth and staying loose on the sidelines. It is all about focus in the cold and making sure you do not over swing trying to get more power.”
Jeff Reed:
“Whether it is windy or raining, the ball is not going to travel as far in cold weather. Depending on your strategy going into the game as far as kickoffs go, you can either drive the ball if you are looking for a deeper kick, although that won’t have as much of a hang time, or use your normal kick and the guys know that your deep kick is going to be right around the eight-to-ten-yard line. As far as the wind, it is windy everywhere, whether it is Florida or Pennsylvania. You have to adjust. If you are a teacher and you are teaching a young kid to kick, you would say ‘don’t play the wind – use your fundamentals.’ When you get older, you have to realize that sometimes when the uprights are moving, if you don’t aim a little right or left depending on the wind conditions, you won’t make it. As far as field goals, you don’t necessarily have to change the way you kick in the cold, but when the field gets soggy, I take shorter steps so that I don’t slip.”
Connor Barth: (see full article for his lengthy answers).
John Ruskin:
Posted on 18-Jun-09 at 10:30 am | Permalink“Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather.”
Those are great quotes. So essentially nothing has changed over the years in how kickers approach FGs with the various elements in place.
Posted on 18-Jun-09 at 2:07 pm | PermalinkIn case anyone cared, the answer to the trivia questions are:
31. Most overtime field goals are Jason Elam, Steve Christie and Jim Breech, all with 9.
32. Breech was a perfect 9/9. Christie 9/10 and Elam 9/11.
Scott, interesting that you brought up Graham because I found Chase's kicking research on this blog after a friend and I argued about who we would rather have for a game-winning field goal, Graham or Breech (It was an all-time Bengals argument). Graham smokes Breech in career accuracy, but Breech never missed a kick in his career with under 2:00 in 4th Q or Overtime. So I said Breech, he said Graham.
Posted on 19-Jun-09 at 5:50 pm | PermalinkAnd Great point about Gary Anderson, sure he set the NFL record for field goals made and percentage that season, but he'll be remembered for the miss. We'll all have to get together sometime and quantify the perfect formula incorporating weather and clutch kicks.
Mr. Taco--I don't know enough about the Bengals to comment, but I know this--depending on the weather and distance, you might choose a less accurate kicker with a bigger leg.
Posted on 19-Jun-09 at 10:42 pm | PermalinkFor question 12, the HOF has inducted at least 4 part-time kickers.
Groza
Stenerud
Blanda
and Hornung
Posted on 29-Jun-09 at 8:54 am | PermalinkChase, finally got around to reading this post. Interesting stuff. I have a few comments, which I will post in case you review these comments for future updates on the subject:
1. An obvious element to incorporate is "clutch" situations... though it is debatable what all that entails. All 4th quarter and OT kicks? All 4th quarter and OT kicks within a certain point spread (but what spread)? Only kicks within the last x minutes of the 4th quarter and beyond (i.e., including OT)? Kicks within the last x minutes (or seconds) of the first half? Emphasis on postseason games? Once a timing element is decided, should differing credit be given for kicks that bring a team within a TD... within a FG... tie the game... take a team from behind to ahead... move a team from a FG or less ahead to more than a FG ahead... move a team from a TD or less ahead to more than a TD ahead...?
2. Vince's comment about kickoff data comparing Anderson, Andersen, and Lowery is very interesting. I really think for an accurate kicker assessment you need to incorporate this element. I realize getting the data is a challenge, but it is interesting that the data in the comment shows that if it was an element of your ranking, Andersen would very likely move ahead of Lowery, so it could have an important effect.
3. I wonder about somehow incorporating an element for opportunity. For example, 42.3% of Andersen's FG attempts were from 40+ yards, compared to 39.7% of Lowery's kicks. So one would expect Andersen to be penalized a bit more by your methodology, since one would expect him to have more long misses... but is that intuitively the right way to judge kickers? Certainly the kicker has no control over where his opportunities come from. And one reason a kicker could be given more opportunities to kick long FGs is because of his superior ability to do so.
Posted on 02-Sep-09 at 9:11 am | PermalinkThanks JWB. Always glad when you're able to chime in.
1. I've got reservations on including "clutchness" into the rankings, but at least for now, it's a moot point. I don't think we're getting historical data on in-game kicking, just game-by-game historical data.
2. Kickoff data would be nice, and net data would be even better. However, kickoff yards are like kick return yards -- i.e., the least useful yards around because they don't help you gain first downs. Between kickers who are very close, KO data would be a good tiebreaker, but I doubt that it would make significant impacts on the rankings. That's just an assumption, though, not something I've proven or derived.
3. Not necessarily. There's no difference between having lots of 50+ yarders or lots of 30+ yarders, except for variance. But on average, all kickers will be average. By comparing each kick to league average from that distance, kicking more kicks from farther away doesn't penalize anyone. Does that make sense?
Posted on 02-Sep-09 at 10:10 am | Permalink