Chad Pennington and Thomas Jones
Posted by Chase Stuart on March 7, 2007
There are lots of things to write about the Thomas Jones trade, but most of them aren't that interesting to your average sports fan. I heard one comment, though, that piqued my interest. Roughly speaking, the claim was this:
Chad Pennington is going to be helped out a ton by Thomas Jones. Last year, it wasn't fair how the Jets asked him -- while recovering from consecutive arm surgeries -- to carry the entire offense. It was all on him and his arm, and he played through it all. Now, with Jones there, Pennington should be much better this year.
As usual, "much better" can be interpreted lots of ways. I'll look at two, adjusted yards per attempt, and team wins. As I started thinking about how to test this theory empirically, I realized there are quite a few assumptions we'll have to make to really examine this. There are thousands of QB seasons to look at, so here is how we'll narrow down the list.
- We'll only look at quarterbacks that played on the same team in consecutive years, played in at least ten games in each season, and threw for at least 2,000 yards in each year. Those last two numbers are pretty arbitrary, but they seem to establish a decent floor.
- The 2006 Jets RBs, as a group, rushed 426 times for 1,449 yards, a 3.40 YPC average. You may remember, this was after a historically bad start, too. Jets RBs, as a group, ranked 26th in rushing yards and 30th in YPC. We'll have to be arbitrary again, but the assumption we're using is that Thomas Jones is good, and this helps Pennington. If the Jets RBs, as a group, stink again next year, this analysis would be meaningless. So I'll only look at QBs that played on teams that moved up at least 10 rankings in rushing yards and 10 ranking spots in rushing YPC average the following year.
- Only 37 QBs since the merger have met those requirements, but we'll have to narrow the list a bit more. Why? Our system now will spot someone like the 1990 version of Troy Aikman, who played in 15 games and threw for 2,579 yards for Dallas. The next year, the Cowboys RBs improved from ranking 24th and 23rd to 9th and 8th, in rushing yards and rushing YPC, respectively. And Aikman played in 12 games in 1991, throwing for 2,754 yards. But in 1990, his leading receiver was Kelvin Martin (732 yards), while in 1991 Michael Irvin (1523) more than doubled Martin's output. That surely helped Aikman more than anything else, and the key factor here is that we all expect Coles and Cotchery to lead the Jets in receiving in 2007. So I'm going to stipulate that another requirement is that the same two receivers lead the team in receiving yards the same year. I italicized receivers, because I don't mean wide receivers. If a RB or TE ranks first or second, that's fine too. Additionally, the order doesn't matter, because the Jets won't change much if it's Cotchery that leads the Jets in receiving yards next year, or if Coles does it again.
That whittles the list down to twelve. I think that's a pretty good number. There's too much information for one table, so here is how those QBs all did in the first year, Year N. The categories should be self-explanatory, except note that YdRk is how that team's running backs ranked in rushing yards, and YpcRk is how that team's running backs ranked in rushing yards per carry. I also threw Pennington on the top of the list, but did not include his numbers in the averages.
Name Nyr Tm YdRk YpcRk Receiver1 Receiver2 AY/A W-L
Chad Pennington 2006 nyj 26 30 ColeLa00 CotcJe00 5.78 10-6
Matt Hasselbeck 2002 sea 21 22 RobiKo00 JackDa00 6.62 7 -9
Jay Fiedler 2001 mia 24 30 ChamCh00 McKnJa00 5.86 11-5
Kerry Collins 1999 nyg 25 28 ToomAm00 HillIk00 5.73 7 -9
Mark Brunell 1997 jax 22 23 SmitJi00 McCaKe00 7.23 11-5
Brad Johnson 1996 min 18 18 ReedJa00 CartCr00 6.36 9 -7
John Elway 1994 den 28 27 MillAn00 SharSh00 6.48 7 -9
Wade Wilson 1988 min 20 23 CartAn00 JoneHa00 7.50 11-5
Ken O'Brien 1987 nyj 19 17 ToonAl00 ShulMi00 6.27 6 -9
Warren Moon 1986 oti 26 27 HillDr00 GiviEr00 5.02 5-11
Ron Jaworski 1980 phi 16 21 SmitCh00 CarmHa00 7.23 12-4
Jim Hart 1978 crd 23 25 TillPa00 GrayMe01 5.18 6-10
Ron Jaworski 1977 phi 24 24 CarmHa00 KrepKe00 4.10 5 -9
Average 22 24 6.13 8 -8
To be clear, the above table should be read as follows: Chad Pennington played for the 2006 Jets, whose RBs ranked 26th in rushing yards and 30th in rushing yards per carry, and his top receivers were Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. He averaged 5.78 adjusted yards per attempt, and his team went 10-6.
The rest of the above table list is filled with QBs on bad rushing teams, who played a lot in Year N and Year N+1, and whose top receivers remain unchanged. Here's how those QBs did in Year N+1:
Name N+1yr Tm YdRk YpcRk Receiver1 Receiver2 AY/A W-L
Matt Hasselbeck 2003 sea 7 9 JackDa00 RobiKo00 6.68 10-6
Jay Fiedler 2002 mia 1 3 ChamCh00 McKnJa00 6.02 9 -7
Kerry Collins 2000 nyg 5 15 ToomAm00 HillIk00 6.13 12-4
Mark Brunell 1998 jax 6 4 SmitJi00 McCaKe00 6.77 11-5
Brad Johnson 1997 min 7 5 ReedJa00 CartCr00 5.96 9 -7
John Elway 1995 den 15 3 MillAn00 SharSh00 6.64 8 -8
Wade Wilson 1989 min 6 11 CartAn00 JoneHa00 5.78 10-6
Ken O'Brien 1988 nyj 4 6 ToonAl00 ShulMi00 5.67 8 -7
Warren Moon 1987 oti 13 5 HillDr00 GiviEr00 5.99 9 -6
Ron Jaworski 1981 phi 4 2 CarmHa00 SmitCh00 5.26 10-6
Jim Hart 1979 crd 3 2 TillPa00 GrayMe01 3.72 5-11
Ron Jaworski 1978 phi 8 10 CarmHa00 KrepKe00 4.84 9 -7
Average 7 6 5.79 9 -7
I wasn't sure what before running the numbers what the results would tell us, but the results are clear: don't bump up Chad Pennington's 2007 projections just yet. Not surprisingly, team winning percentage went up with improved running games. But while half of the dozen QBs technically saw an increase in their adjusted yards per attempt ratio, only two of them, and none in the last 19 years, saw significant increases. So the next time you hear someone tell you how Chad Pennington's efficiency numbers should increase this year with an improved rushing attack, ask them why, because it didn't help Wade Wilson or Jim Hart.
Because like Pennington, Wilson and Hart were the starting QBs on the same team for two straight years. And like Pennington, Wilson and Hart had the same top two receivers (Coles/Cotchery, Tilley/Gray, and Carter/Jones) both years. Pennington, Wilson and Hart all had really bad running games the first year, and then added a marquee RB in the off-season (Thomas Jones, Ottis Anderson and Herschel Walker). And they have it even better than Pennington's projections, because we know that the receivers stayed healthy and the RBs did very well, and the rushing game became very good. Yet both quarterbacks saw significant decreases in their passing efficiencies.
I'm not saying that will happen to Pennington, but it's clear that it's incorrect to assume that the addition of Thomas Jones will help Pennington's statistics. By weighing the deck as much as possible -- assuming Pennington plays at least 10 games and throws for 2,000 yards next year, assuming that the Jets running game improves significantly, and assuming that Coles and Cotchery are healthy enough to lead the Jets in receiving -- there's still no evidence to expect Pennington to play better. He might play better because he's finally not recovering from off-season surgery, the offensive line has improved with experience, and he's got a year in this new system under his belt, but I'm not sure his numbers will improve because of Thomas Jones the runner. (I say the runner, because if someone like Reggie Bush came over and the Jets running game improved, Pennington's numbers would likely go up because of Reggie Bush the receiver. But Jones isn't in that class as a receiving back, so it's a moot point in this example.)
I'm filing this post under "Fantasy", so I should include some fantasy football information as well.
|==============Year N==============| |=============Year N+1=============|
QBID Rk Att Yards TD/INT FP Rk Att Yards TD/INT FP
HassMa00 19 419 3075 15/10 230 4 513 3844 26/15 306
FiedJa00 10 450 3290 20/19 282 26 292 2024 14/ 9 176
CollKe00 25 332 2316 8/11 152 8 529 3610 22/13 268
BrunMa00 8 435 3281 18/ 7 267 15 354 2601 20/ 9 220
JohnBr00 19 311 2258 17/10 186 13 452 3036 20/12 234
ElwaJo00 5 494 3490 16/10 276 5 542 3970 26/14 312
WilsWa00 14 332 2746 15/ 9 214 20 362 2543 9/12 170
OBriKe00 12 393 2696 13/ 8 185 18 424 2567 15/ 7 184
MoonWa00 12 488 3489 13/26 228 7 368 2806 21/18 236
JawoRo00 5 451 3529 27/12 288 13 461 3095 23/20 240
HartJi00 9 477 3121 16/18 215 26 378 2218 9/20 128
JawoRo00 5 346 2183 18/21 203 13 398 2487 16/16 180
Average 12 411 2956 16/13 227 14 423 2900 18/14 221
The numbers are pretty similar, with quarterback efficiencies going slightly down, TD/INT ratios going slightly up, and fantasy rankings going slightly down, after significantly improving their running games. (While not shown here, rushing yardage is included in fantasy points and fantasy ranking. E.g., Jay Fiedler rushed for 322 more yards the year before Miami added Ricky Williams than the year after. Once again, don't rush to bump Chad Pennington up your fantasy draft board just because the Jets added Thomas Jones.
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March 7th, 2007 at 8:31 am
the question is... HOW MUCH WILL IT HELP THOMAS JONES.
March 7th, 2007 at 9:36 am
I don't know. How many future hall of famers (Reuben Brown) will he have blocking for him with the Jets, how many leads will he be running out in the 4th quarter, and can he stay healthy for a whole season?
If Chad gets better next season, it's probably because he's fully recovered from his shoulder problems.
March 7th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
I think this study refutes the idea that you can improve your passing game a great deal simply by improving your running game. Never mind "establishing" the run, this seems to imply that even succeeding at the run doesn't open up the passing game as much as is commonly believed (although this has more to do with team building strategies than playcalling strategies). You could probably do the reverse study as well, but I'd suspect it would reveal that there really isn't as much synergy between the running game and the passing game as most commentators profess.
There was some similar research published in the old Football by the Numbers books where authors Allen Barra and George Ignatin found little relationship between a team's run efficiency and pass efficiency. As I recall, they just looked at yards per carry and yards per pass attempt. In other words, you can build a good rushing attack and you can build a good passing attack, but there isn't a whole lot of carry over impact one has on the other.
March 7th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Whata bout looking at the corralary where a teams run ypc etc drops the following year.
March 8th, 2007 at 6:45 am
In regards to Thoms Jones joining the Jets. There's been commentary in NY about how Thomas Jones is almost 30. However, I feel like, with only 1400 carries, the age is less relevant, as opposed to Jamal Lewis who is 27 but already has 1800 carries.
What's more relevant? age 30, or 2000 carries?
March 8th, 2007 at 11:08 am
funny you should ask that...
(doug, insert the thread please).
March 8th, 2007 at 11:10 am
nevermind - i found it.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=66
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=69
March 8th, 2007 at 11:11 am
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=71
March 8th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Jamal Lewis is only 12 months younger than Thomas Jones.
Its funny how when you are 28, you get rounded up to 30 but when you are 27, you are in your prime. Thomas Jones has plenty of gas in the tank.
GOD. I WAIT AND WAIT AND WAIT for Thomas Jones to not have to deal with "Cedric Benson" issues and now I got people giving me age complaints. TOUGH CROWD.
March 8th, 2007 at 11:31 am
Now that you've debunked the "we signed a free agent RB and now our QB will be better" argument, I would be curious to see if there is any evidence for the "we signed a free agent WR and now our QB will be better" argument. You hear this all the time with Vick(i.e. if only he had some receivers he would be great), and to a lesser extent Brady(he is greater than he appears because of his lousy receivers).
Chase or Bill, any chance we could see something similar for receivers?
March 8th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
"Not surprisingly, team winning percentage went up with improved running games."
Well, that's the point of the trade.
As to Chad, he's a big play action guy and for play action to work one must have a running game, so there's some particular reason to think that having one will be better for him than having none at all, and help him more than it would help a QB with a different style of play, like say the young Namath.
But the real point of the deal is to help the team win games.
March 16th, 2007 at 7:55 am
These are very interesting points....wel written, and well thougth out. However, are we going to COMPLETELY abandon the offense that is run here? We run a Play action based offense....run to pass..........can't do that if you can't run. It should help Pennington being able to run..because he is top FIVE in pulling off he Play Action pass.
March 16th, 2007 at 8:12 am
A couple of thoughts:
The Jets led the league last season on the number of first down run plays. Better production here will lead to the next thought:
I suspect that having a better running game puts QBs into a shorter passing game. 3rd and 3 versus 3rd and 9, for example. This short game is the area where Pennington can have huge QB ratings and passing efficiency. You've gone from an area that he might not be the best at, (10-25 yard completions) to one where he can put up crazy numbers (5-15 yard completions).
And finally, as Jim G noted, Chad is known as a good play action guy. And whereas Jaworski, Collins or some others mentioned in the above study might have thrown the ball 40 yards downfield on a play action, Chad will likely be throwing a 15 yard completion on play action that may or may not lead to a 40 yard gain. I don't think we'll be seeing the second coming of Daryl Lamonica.
As long as Schottenheimer plays to his QB's strengths, Chad's numbers could very well go up--bucking the trend that appears to be shown by this study.
Wins and losses are very much dependent upon so many other areas of the team that I'm not sure we can say that's due to QB play by looking only at the numbers above.
March 16th, 2007 at 8:20 am
I think the you missed the point. when people say chad will be better its not because having a running back will juice his stats, its because now that there is a legitimate runner back there opposing D's wont be daring chad to beat them himself. He can go back to his bread and butter-the play action. I still think he is the best in the league at the play fake and hopefully we'll see more of it next year.
It has nothing to do with will his stats be better just because he has a good RB, its all about putting that doubt in defenders minds about what to gaurd against. Now teams wont be able to sit back and wait for chad to make a mistake.
Thats the point of the "thomas jones makes chadd better" argument and the stats will follow.
March 16th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Bingo!
sean nailed it on the head.
March 16th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
As all three of today's comments point out, Pennington's talent as a play-action passer should have been included in the original post. That's exactly the type of thing that could separate him from the QBs on the list that didn't improve. On the other hand, I don't want to go too over the top about that, either. All the other QBs in the study presumably faced many more 3rd and 3s than 3rd and 9s the following year, but it didn't help a lot of them. And two of the QBs that did improve considerably -- Elway and Moon -- were known for their rocket arms. A similar case can be made that on 3rd and short defenses have to play close to the LOS, and those QBs were able to exploit that matchup for big gains.
Sean, I understand your point. And it's important to separate out whether the Jets will be better on offense and whether Chad Pennington will have better statistics. As a Jets fan, we wouldn't care much about the individual stats, and the Jones trade should help the team a bunch. But if we're just curious about Pennington's numbers, I'm still not convinced that just because opposing Ds can't focus on the QBs and the Ds won't be able to sit back and wait for a mistake, that better numbers will follow. That same argument could have been made for Wade Wilson or Jim Hart. We're still talking small sample sizes here, so certainly Pennington's play action ability might be a reason why he's different from them. And more importantly, Pennington's numbers might go up next year for lots of reasons (detailed earlier). I'm just noting that the mere addition of a good RB won't automatically help his numbers like the addition of a good WR would
.
(The comment about wins and losses was a reflection more on the new RB than the new QB. We'd expect teams, all other things being equal, to win more games when they improve their running game significantly.)
March 16th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
It might have been a good idea to put interceptions/attempt in your table. Given that the poor rushing teams lost more, the qb's would have been throwing into prevent defenses more often. That would skew the yards/attempt numbers in favor of the bad rushing teams.
March 16th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Josh,
I was using adjusted yards per attempt, not yards/attempt. AY/A subtracts 45 yards from raw passing yards for every INT. Rest assured, QBs are penalized heavily for INTs in that system. (And if you're curious, I included the actual INT and ATT data at the end of the post.)
June 21st, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Look up Thomas Jones' statistics (Google: Thomas Jones football reference), and you will see that he has improved almost every year. His 2006 playoffs were fine (three games, 301 yards, 4 TDs). This HAS to help Pennington by freezing linebackers who otherwise would be firing in on Chad without regard to the possibility of a rush.