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ShareThis90% of the All-Decade Team, Part II
Yesterday, we looked at my choices for the through-nine-years All-decade offense. Today, we'll do the same for the defense.
Even when the 3-4 defense was at its peak in the '80s, that All-Decade Team still selected four linemen and three linebackers (although it still chose three 3-4 players in its front seven). We'll do the same here, but we'll keep in mind that Pro Bowl and AP honors are less likely to be given to 3-4 linemen, which will drive their AV scores down, too.
Defensive Ends:
AV PB G GS SEA awards AP1 AP2 Sk Val PLAYER 100 6 141 136 8 1 3 1 36.5 Jason Taylor 78 4 113 112 8 1 2 2 34.5 Michael Strahan 76 5 111 105 7 0 3 1 1.0 Richard Seymour 71 4 106 106 7 1 2 1 23.0 Julius Peppers 66 1 139 137 9 0 0 0 0.0 Aaron Smith 66 2 110 99 7 0 1 1 28.0 Simeon Rice 63 3 113 103 6 0 1 1 27.5 John Abraham 62 2 128 127 8 0 1 1 19.5 Patrick Kerney 59 1 112 105 7 0 0 0 12.0 Adewale Ogunleye 58 4 103 89 7 0 2 1 22.5 Dwight Freeney 58 1 144 139 9 0 0 0 4.5 Kevin Carter 57 2 117 112 7 0 0 1 14.0 Aaron Schobel 56 2 111 102 7 0 0 0 8.5 Jevon Kearse 54 1 123 106 7 0 0 0 8.0 Mike Rucker 53 3 79 65 4 0 1 1 13.5 Hugh Douglas 53 2 77 71 5 0 2 0 19.5 Jared Allen
Taylor and Strahan have been the top DEs for most of this decade, and their AV scores reflect that. They were the only two DEs to win defensive player of the year awards this decade (Peppers' award was a rookie of the year honor). Dwight Freeney and Jared Allen (and Peppers) have two first team all-pro nominations each, and could pick up a third this season; but for now, they're a notch below the top guys.
I've also included a column at the end called sack value, which is a quick and simple way to measure pass rusher dominance. I gave each DE credit for his sacks in a season above half his number of games played. So 16 sacks in a 16 game season is +8; so is 12 sacks in a 8 game season. I simply added up the number of "sacks over 0.5 games played" for each defensive end to get a sense of how dominant they were at getting to the quarterback. Once again, Taylor and Strahan stand out. As 3-4 DEs, we can't penalize Seymour and Smith for not putting up big sack numbers, and AV is a better (but not perfect) way to grade them.
There's no doubt that 3-4 defensive ends are at an unfair disadvantage when it comes to Pro Bowls and All Pro honors, and we should have one on our roster. Seymour has achieved more fame than most 3-4 ends, no doubt helped by playing for the Patriots. But Steelers fans could rightly argue that Smith has been the premier 3-4 end of his era, and he's started 32 more games than Seymour this decade. Just because he's not an edge rusher doesn't mean he's not a very valuable end. Unfortunately, there isn't much to go on when grading 3-4 ends, and Seymour's four combined All-Pro honors makes him a strong pick as a second team all defensive end. For the other spot, Peppers has been a more versatile player than Freeney, but Jared Allen is hot on his heels.
First team All-Decade DEs: Jason Taylor and Michael Strahan
Second team All-Decade DEs: Richard Seymour and Julius Peppers
Defensive Tackle:
AV PB G GS SEA awards AP1 AP2 PLAYER 79 4 121 120 8 0 3 0 Warren Sapp 78 6 144 134 9 0 1 2 La'Roi Glover 65 4 94 94 6 0 4 0 Kevin Williams 65 4 101 95 6 0 2 1 Kris Jenkins 64 3 139 126 8 0 0 1 Pat Williams 63 3 122 119 8 0 2 1 Jamal Williams 61 3 119 115 7 0 0 1 Trevor Pryce 60 2 109 105 7 0 0 1 John Henderson 60 3 117 111 8 0 0 1 Sam Adams 58 3 116 100 7 0 0 1 Marcus Stroud 55 0 132 116 8 0 0 0 Cornelius Griffin 55 4 113 106 7 0 0 0 Casey Hampton 54 0 140 133 9 0 0 1 Chris Hovan 52 2 90 74 6 0 2 0 Albert Haynesworth 51 3 114 112 7 0 0 1 Shaun Rogers 51 2 124 124 8 0 0 1 Bryant Young 50 2 97 93 6 0 1 0 Ted Washington
There are seven strong candidates at defensive tackle -- Sapp, Glover, Kevin Williams, Kris Jenkins, Jamal Williams, Pat Williams and Albert Haynesworth. Any of the latter five could have a huge season in '09 and really change these results.
The premier defensive tackles of our era can generally be classified as either as under tackles or space eaters. In an under front, the 3-technique (or under tackle) can be as effective a pass rusher as a defensive end. Sapp and Glover both had 17 sack seasons in the '00s while playing the three technique, and marginal players have put up good sack numbers while playing this position. These guys generally get the accolades and the fame, and because of that AV, likes them. But they're neither more prevalent nor more valuable than a nose tackle or big bodied defensive tackle who just eats up blockers. Unfortunately, those players do not get the credit they deserve. Comparing a penetrating tackle like Glover, Sapp or Kevin Williams to a space eater like Jamal Williams, Pat Williams or Kris Jenkins (or Shaun Rogers or Vince Wilfork) is difficult. Therefore, I'm going to force myself to grab two big uglies along with two three technique tackles on my all-decade team, regardless of what AV and the all-pro awards say.
- The Vikings have allowed the fewest rushing yards each of the past three seasons, thanks to the dominant play of Kevin and Pat Williams. Kevin Williams' size, speed and athleticism has made him one of the most productive defensive tackles in the league; if he picks up a 5th first team all-pro nomination this year, it would be hard to leave him off the team. On the other hand, it would be foolish to ignore how much he's befitted from playing alongside a nose tackle like Pat Williams. In Pat Williams' last season in Buffalo, the Bills ranked in the top 3 in both yards per carry and rushing touchdowns allowed.
- Jenkins was a dominant force early in the decade for Carolina, as instrumental as Julius Peppers was in giving the Panthers the best front four in the league. He had a huge season in New York in 2008 after switching to nose tackle, and he's one of the only men on the planet big enough and agile enough to be a play making nose in a 3-4 defense. He had some down years in between his All Pro seasons of '03 and '08, but another big season in 2009 would solidify his spot.
- Jamal Williams has been the lone constant on the Chargers defense for over a decade. Along with Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo, Williams has been responsible for eating up enough blockers for the Chargers linebackers to due their damage. Since '02, five different linebackers (Shawne Merriman, Donnie Edwards, Junior Seau, Shaun Phillips and Steve Foley) have had either ten sacks or been named to a Pro Bowl while playing behind Williams. And Williams has picked up two first team all pro honors, as well.
- Albert Haynesworth is a special case, as he's neither a three technique tackle nor a guy who just eats up blocks. He does everything. Haynesworth's career started slowly, and he's only become a dominant player the past two seasons. But by the end of next season, he may have his third first-team All Pro nomination and a defensive player of the year award. He's that good. He can line up over center and beat a double team to get a sack, while still holding up very well against the run. The Titans defense the past two seasons has been short on name players and long on production — and that’s because Haynesworth makes everyone around him better. Doug’s approximate value system recognizes this; Haynesworth has 35 points of AV over the past two seasons, most in the league. How Haynesworth fares in Washington will be one of the most interesting storylines of 2009.
- I left Sapp and Glover last, as they should be discussed together. Sapp was a member of the All-Decade team of the '90s, the only player from that team with a chance to make this one. Sapp and Glover were in their primes in the early part of the decade, and both made the NFC's Pro Bowl roster the first four seasons of the '00s. There’s no denying that Sapp had the better career and was better at his peak, but Glover’s got the cut-offs working in his favor. If this was the All-Decade team of ‘98 to ‘07, I’d take Sapp over Glover. But Sapp had only one productive season after leaving Tampa after the 2003 season, and most of his play as a 3-4 end in Oakland was ugly. Glover made six Pro Bowls this decade, for two different teams, and at two different positions (under tackle and nose tackle); he was less one dimensional than Sapp. Kevin Williams was probably more versatile than Sapp as well, and played better for longer in the '00s. Sapp, Glover and Kevin Williams are all worthy choices as dominant interior rushers. Unfortunately, we've only got two spots on the list.
- Casey Hampton, Jamal Williams, Pat Williams and Kris Jenkins have all been terrific interior lineman this decade. Hampton has made four Pro Bowls but has yet to earn any all-pro distinctions. Jamal Williams has probably been the most consistent of the space eaters this decade, and has also picked up two first team all-pro honors. Jenkins has shown that, at his peak, he's been an unstoppable force. Pat Williams has been very good for multiple teams, and is your classic space eater. Any of these four guys would be strong picks, and it's very, very difficult to try and put them in any sort of order.
First team All-Decade DTs: La'Roi Glover (UT) and Jamal Williams (DT/NT)
Second team All-Decade DTs: Kevin Williams (UT) and Kris Jenkins (DT/NT)
Outside Linebackers:
We've left the space-eaters behind, but we've still got some 3-4/4-3 issues to deal with. I listed the "sacks over 0.5 per game" stat again, as we've got several 3-4 pass rushing linebackers on the list.
AV PB G GS SEA awards AP1 AP2 Sk Val 106 8 144 144 9 1 4 2 0.0 Derrick Brooks 79 4 138 137 9 0 1 3 17.0 Joey Porter 66 4 94 91 6 0 1 1 0.0 Lance Briggs 64 1 143 114 7 0 1 1 0.0 Keith Bulluck 61 2 121 97 7 0 1 0 4.5 Adalius Thomas 61 5 127 119 7 0 1 1 3.5 Julian Peterson 60 2 124 120 8 0 1 0 0.0 Takeo Spikes 57 1 140 110 8 0 1 0 7.5 Mike Vrabel 56 1 133 126 9 0 0 0 7.0 Greg Ellis 54 3 96 80 5 1 0 1 8.0 Terrell Suggs 53 1 131 113 8 0 0 0 0.0 Marcus Washington 51 3 106 89 6 0 1 0 0.0 Junior Seau 50 3 73 64 4 0 1 0 10.5 Jason Gildon 48 0 131 115 8 0 0 0 0.0 Na'il Diggs 47 0 88 88 6 0 0 0 0.0 Jamie Sharper 46 3 84 72 5 0 0 2 3.0 LaVar Arrington 45 3 64 64 4 0 2 1 21.5 DeMarcus Ware 45 2 107 93 6 0 0 0 0.0 Dexter Coakley
Derrick Brooks blows everyone away, and it's not even close. He leads all outside linebackers in starts, Pro Bowls, defensive player of the year awards and first team all pro nominations. Joey Porter is a very distant #2, and is the clear top 3-4 OLB of the decade. DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison -- arguably the two best defensive players in the game today -- came on too late in the decade to warrant serious consideration.
But before we name the outside linebackers, let's take a look at the inside linebackers.
Inside Linebackers:
AV PB G GS SEA awards AP1 AP2 PLAYER 107 7 118 118 7 3 5 0 Ray Lewis 97 6 137 135 9 2 4 0 Brian Urlacher 83 6 121 119 8 0 3 2 Zach Thomas 76 2 140 130 8 0 1 1 James Farrior 66 4 110 101 7 0 1 1 Jeremiah Trotter 63 5 133 133 8 0 0 2 Keith Brooking 63 5 109 107 7 0 1 1 Al Wilson 62 0 144 143 9 0 0 0 London Fletcher 61 1 127 117 8 0 0 2 Tedy Bruschi 60 1 135 132 8 0 0 2 Donnie Edwards 56 0 119 114 8 0 0 1 Mike Peterson
We've got three inside linebackers who, based on Pro Bowls, AV and All-Pro honors, are more distingushed than all but one outside linebacker. On the All-70s and All-80s teams, ballots were cast for two outside linebackers and one inside linebacker. But the All-90s defense eliminated the distinction, grouping all linebackers together. That team featured three outside linebackers on its first team: Derrick Thomas, Kevin Greene and Junior Seau. It might seem odd to separate out defensive tackle into two positions but to lump all linebackers together. I won't argue with that. But the reason I wanted one nose tackle was because that position is just as important as the three-technique tackle, but doesn't get nearly as much praise. That isn't the case at linebacker -- neither outside nor inside linebackers are at a systematic disadvantage vis-a-vis the other one. Most importantly, it seems wrong to exclude Brian Urlacher off the all-decade team, and I suspect the '00 All-Decade defense will again combine linebackers and have him on the squad. That's what ESPN did, and I don't think it will upset the balance of the world if I do so as well.
First team All-Decade linebackers: Ray Lewis, Derrick Brooks and Brian Urlacher
Not much needs to be said about these three. All carried their putrid offenses to Super Bowls, and have combined for 34 Pro Bowl/First-team All Pro nominations. Lewis won two DPOY awards and a SB MVP; Urlacher won a DPOY award and a defensive ROY award; Brooks won a DPOY award. These are the three dominant linebackers of the '00s.
The second team is a little harder. Joey Porter and Zach Thomas are both solid picks. Porter's been a sack machine for most of the decade and is your prototypical 3-4 outside linebacker. Thomas peaked in the early part of the decade, but he has more first-team all pros this decade than anyone besides Lewis, Brooks and Urlacher. So who should be our third second-team linebacker?
Julian Peterson, Lance Briggs and James Farrior all have good resumes. DeMarcus Ware could slide in with a big season in '09, while Patrick Willis is probably left looking at a spot on the '10s All-Decade team. After taking two inside linebackers on the first team, I'm inclined to grab two outside linebackers here. And while the above names are good, none of them stand out as "must haves" on the team.
In addition to Ware (21.5 sacks over 0.5 SK/G) and Porter (17), only Shawne Merriman (18.5) has elite sack numbers. And with only 43 games played in the decade, he's not going to make the cut. So why don't we take one of the biggest playmakers in some of the biggest games of the decade? Mike Vrabel (7.5 sacks over 0.5 SK/G) has more sacks and INTs this decade than Julian Peterson, and his post-season accomplishments are well documented. He had three sacks and two receiving touchdowns combined in the Patriots Super Bowl victories in '03 and '04. DeMarcus Ware could pass him with a big season, but for now, I'll take Vrabel and his 140 games, 8 post-season sacks, and big performances for three Super Bowl teams. Bruschi may be the better Pats linebacker, but I think we need a 3-4 outside linebacker for this team.
Second team All-Decade linebackers: Joey Porter, Zach Thomas and Mike Vrabel
Cornerbacks
You can relax -- there isn't much to debate here.
AV PB G GS SEA awards AP1 AP2 PLAYER 99 5 144 144 9 0 3 2 Ronde Barber 92 8 134 134 9 0 3 3 Champ Bailey 71 3 119 115 8 0 1 1 Chris McAlister 63 3 131 125 8 0 1 1 Patrick Surtain 63 4 124 123 8 0 1 0 Ty Law 61 3 127 119 8 0 1 1 Sam Madison 58 1 118 116 8 0 1 0 Samari Rolle 57 4 91 86 5 0 1 1 Troy Vincent 54 3 120 117 8 0 0 2 Charles Woodson 53 1 128 126 9 0 0 1 Antoine Winfield 50 1 90 90 6 0 1 0 Rashean Mathis
Bailey and Barber will both make the Hall of Fame, and I doubt either will have to wait long. Nnamdi Asomugha was born in the wrong year -- players born in seasons ending in a "1" will have a tough time making any all-decade team. Barber and Bailey each received three first team all pro honors; no other CB this decade has even two. The other players on the list have all been very good, and at one time or another, were arguably one of the top three corners in the game. But Bailey has been the standard for most of the decade, with Barber right behind him. Barber's the only cornerback to record 30 INTs and 20 sacks since the latter became an official statistic in 1982; the other men to reach those marks are safeties LeRoy Butler, Brian Dawkins and Rodney Harrison.
The second-team list is up for a healthy debate, but a great cover corner can be as difficult to spot as a great offensive linemen. You've got Pro Bowls, All Pros, and (before AV), not much else. Still, Chris McAlister has a terrific resume. Ignoring Barber and Bailey, he is tied for the most more combined 1st/2nd team all pro nominations, has made three Pro Bowls, has started most of the decade, and has been a part of two historically great defenses ('00 and '06). Is he a HOF corner? Probably not, but he was born in the right year to be 23 to 32 years old during the '00s. If you want a number to hang your hat on, only Bailey, Barber and Dre' Bly have more passes defended this decade. Ty Law has made four Pro Bowls this decade with two different teams, and in '05 led the league in interceptions. Like Vrabel, he's been a terrific post-season performer, with six interceptions and a decisive touchdown in the Pats upset Super Bowl win against the Rams. Troy Vincent was ESPN's first-team pick, but with just half a decade of play, I can't justify taking him over Law or McAlister.
First team All-Decade CBs: Ronde Barber and Champ Bailey
Second team All-Decade CBs: Chris McAlister and Ty Law
Safeties:
The '90s team had three strong safeties, and I don't feel any particular need to separate out the strong and free safeties. Like at linebacker, I don't think either position has a built in advantage over the other in terms of being more popular or more important, so I'm content to group them together.
AV PB G GS SEA awards AP1 AP2 PLAYER 79 6 124 124 8 0 4 0 Brian Dawkins 76 5 106 105 7 1 4 1 Ed Reed 70 4 137 135 9 0 1 3 Darren Sharper 69 7 121 120 8 0 1 2 John Lynch 61 5 88 72 5 0 2 2 Troy Polamalu 58 5 98 95 6 0 1 0 Roy Williams 53 2 138 138 9 0 0 0 Lawyer Milloy 53 1 100 99 6 0 1 1 Mike Brown 53 1 137 127 8 0 0 1 Sammy Knight 53 1 106 105 7 0 1 1 Rodney Harrison 50 0 128 128 8 0 0 0 Deon Grant 47 2 118 100 7 0 0 2 Adrian Wilson
Let's throw up another table for the safeties, too:
g int intyd ff fr to td sack tkl ast pd 124 22 232 25 11 1 17.5 506 125 107 Brian Dawkins 106 43 1144 6 6 7 5.0 342 69 91 Ed Reed 137 49 954 7 5 7 6.0 523 136 102 Darren Sharper 121 14 86 10 5 0 9.5 409 170 59 John Lynch 88 17 210 7 3 2 7.0 327 108 61 Troy Polamalu 98 19 307 9 8 3 6.5 417 94 56 Roy Williams 138 10 105 6 3 0 13.0 639 243 49 Lawyer Milloy 100 17 275 8 7 7 5.0 421 90 44 Mike Brown 137 30 418 12 9 3 9.0 588 192 66 Sammy Knight 106 18 166 12 3 1 20.5 578 191 70 Rodney Harrison 128 23 260 1 5 0 4.5 461 100 86 Deon Grant 118 18 433 13 6 4 18.5 495 114 59 Adrian Wilson
"TO TD" stands for turnover touchdowns, which is simply fumbles returned for touchdowns plus INTs returned for touchdowns. Ed Reed has eleven career touchdowns (three via punt block and one on a punt return), but I didn't think it was fair to count those. Either way, Reed is an obvious choice. On top of his great regular season numbers, he also has five interceptions in five playoffs games, including one score. He's received the most All-Pro nominations of any safety, and along with Bob Sanders, is one of two safeties to win a DPOY award in the '00s. And, of course, there's a good chance he'll simply add to all of his numbers in 2009.
Brian Dawkins is another obvious pick -- he's been the heart of an incredible Eagles defense for the entire decade. His 25 forced fumbles lap the field, and he's been a worthy first team all-pro nominee four different times.
Darren Sharper has the most interceptions and the highest AV of the remaining safeties. In '02 and '05 he led the league in interception return yards, and he was a first team all-pro according to the Sporting News (2nd team All Pro both seasons according to the AP). He's not a sexy pick, but he's a worthy pick for our second team. That leaves one spot left, and it's time we select a strong safety.
John Lynch has the Pro Bowls, and he was a valuable member of some great defenses. He hung around too long and that will hurt his legacy for teams like this; at the end of his career, he was still making Pro Bowls but wasn't very good. Polamalu has only been a starter for five seasons so far, but by this time next year he'll have likely made his sixth Pro Bowl. He's been the most prominent member of the rejuvenated Steelers defense, and he certainly passes the look test. I'd feel more confident selecting him if he gets a first team all-pro nod after the '09 season, but I'd still take him now over the rest of the pack. Smith and Hampton were left off the defensive line in a numbers game, so let's finally give a tiebreaker to the team that has had arguably the best and most consistent defense of the decade.
Rodney Harrison fans will think he deserves the nod, and if I had to take two strong safeties, he or Lynch would be my next choice. He's got a great post-season record -- seven INTs, two sacks, one TD -- but Harrison's problem is a lack of regular season honors. One first team all pro, one second team all pro, and one Pro Bowl appearance does not make the case for a guy who has been on the most popular and successful franchises of the decade. It's possible his reputation as a dirty player has impacted his awards, but he does not rate particularly well in AV, and I don't think I can make a great case for him. If you want to switch Smith and Seymour on the defensive line, I'm fine with switching Polamalu and Harrison here.
Special Teams:
Let's call this 80% of the all-decade special teamers, as I have not yet updated my database to include the '08 season. At placekicker, using the methodology from the Greatest Field Goal Kickers Ever series, Matt Stover (+47.2) comes out on top. Behind him are Jeff Wilkins (45.6), Mike Vanderjagt (42.4), Joe Nedney (36.4) and Jason Hanson (33.4). So, Stover and Wilkins it is!
All-Decade teams select punters, but I'd be lying if I said I had anything interesting to say (for now) about punters. Shane Lechler has been a first team all pro four times this decade, and I've heard of him, so he becomes our first team punter. Brian Moorman and Todd Sauerbrun both have two first team all pro nominations, but Sauerbrun also has a second-team all pro honor. Combined with his one additional Pro Bowl berth and, of course, the fact that he made a Super Bowl this decade, makes Sauerbrun the choice.
Last summer, I talked about how to rank punt and kick returners, using Josh Cribbs as my inspiration. We can do that analysis to select our punt returner and kick returner of the decade.
Even ignoring '08, Devin Hester comes out on top in my formula measuring punt return value added over average. He's at +504, followed by Dante Hall at +480, Dennis Northcutt (+412), Allen Rossum (+382), Jermaine Lewis (+361) and Roscoe Parrish (+350). Kick returners? Terrence McGee is the surprise winner, having added 849 yards over average. Dante Hall +806 is right behind him, and Josh Cribbs is in third place with a score of +649. Cribbs wasn't bad in '08, so a good showing in '09 could be enough to vault him to the top of th elist. As it stands, with Hall already on the team, we can slide Cribbs into the all-second team kick returner slot.
Head Coach:
I can't rank the head coaches, but I can rank their coaching records. Bill Belichick (+85.3) wins going away. No surprise there, nor at runner up, where Tony Dungy is at +58.3 wins. Next on the list are Bill Cowher (+40.9), Andy Reid (+39.2), Jon Gruden (31.2), Brian Billick (+31.2) and Jeff Fisher (+27.1).
90% of the 2000s All-Decade Team
First Team Second Team QB Peyton Manning Tom Brady RB LaDainian Tomlinson Marshall Faulk RB Priest Holmes Tiki Barber WR Terrell Owens Marvin Harrison WR Randy Moss Torry Holt TE Tony Gonzalez Antonio Gates OT Walter Jones Orlando Pace OT Jonathan Ogden Willie Anderson OG Alan Faneca Will Shields OG Steve Hutchinson Brian Waters OC Jeff Saturday Kevin Mawae DE Jason Taylor Richard Seymour DE Michael Strahan Julius Peppers DT La'Roi Glover Kevin Williams NT Jamal Williams Kris Jenkins LB Ray Lewis Joey Porter LB Derrick Brooks Zach Thomas LB Brian Urlacher Mike Vrabel CB Champ Bailey Chris McAlister CB Ronde Barber Ty Law S Ed Reed Troy Polamalu S Brian Dawkins Darren Sharper PK Matt Stover Jeff Wilkins P Shane Lechler Todd Sauerbrun KR Terrence McGee Josh Cribbs PR Devin Hester Dante Hall HC Bill Belichick Tony Dungy
This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 1st, 2009 at 7:39 am and is filed under Approximate Value, Best/Worst Ever. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Looking back at the previous offensive post, and you're logic of justifying certain positions and their #'s, why was there no FB on the team?
Hey Tim,
Fullback just isn't that valuable a position for a majority of modern teams. Arguing that Lorenzo Neal is better than Priest Holmes or Edgerrin James is pretty flimsy. Unless I wanted to take 12 players, I would have had to take my second RB off the team (something I'm sure the real All-Decade team won't do).
While a nose tackle might not get much love (like a fullback), big, run stuffing defensive tackles are very valuable in today's game (unlike a fullback); they just don't get the accolades. The same goes for a 3-4 defensive end -- often responsible for success, rarely given credit for it.
But maybe I'm just inconsistent and crazy.
I agree on the FB-thing, Chase. If more and more teams are fasing the FB out completely, it must mean the position isn't all that important - unless, maybe, if you have one of the very best in the game.
Could you do this again 5 or 6 years from now, for the 2005-2014 all-decade team, so that guys like Asomugha & Ware have a fair shot at making one of these?
Yuk. I think the extent to which I agree with your offense, compared with the extent to which I disagree with your defense, goes some way towards illustrating how inadequate defensive stats and awards are. Some players (Adrian Wilson) suffer unduly because no-one watches their teams; others (Ronde Barber) benefit from playing in a system that hides their weaknesses while helping them rack up counting numbers in a way that guys in more conventional defenses cannot. Here is my attempt (disclaimer: I weight peak performance more heavily than most people):
1 2
DE Michael Strahan Julius Peppers
Jason Taylor Jared Allen
3-4 DEs get less credit than 4-3 DEs because they deserve less credit than 4-3 DE's. Rushing the passer has more marginal value than eating blocks. By the same token, 3-4 OLBs are more valuable than 4-3 OLBs, and should expect to get more places. Moreover, 3-4 DEs have a skill set far more similar to that of a 4-3 DT; that is the position most of them would play in a 4-3, and their remuneration is more in line with those guys. I am more comfortable treating "DT" as really meaning "interior DL".
DT Warren Sapp Kris Jenkins
Richard Seymour Pat Williams
LB Derrick Brooks DeMarcus Ware
Ray Lewis Zach Thomas
Brian Urlacher Lance Briggs
Mike Vrabel has had at most one season when he was even one of the ten best linebackers in football. However good the Patriots have been, he has no place on this team. Ware's last two seasons have been the most valuable by any linebacker this decade.
CB Champ Bailey Charles Woodson
Nnamdi Asomugha Chris McAllister
Bailey is the easiest selection on the entire unit. Asomugha's last two seasons have been simply otherworldly - he may have been born at the wrong time, but by the time the decade's over he will probably own three of the top four seasons in it (along with Bailey's astonishing 2006). If Barber's really as good as the voters think, why was the contract he signed in 2006 worth $24m over the first five seasons, to $40m for a contract signed in the same off-season by Al Harris, who is less than a year younger? Front offices know that Tampa-2 CBs are worth less than their counterparts in other schemes. The press and the voting public don't.
S Ed Reed Troy Polamalu
Brian Dawkins John Lynch
The first team paring is a no-brainer. The seconds is a horrendously tough two-from-three job . . . but the third isn't Rodney Harrison - it's Adrian Wilson. Wilson's 2005 was the best seson by an in-the-box safety this decade, and he didn't even go to the pro-bowl. However, while he's been great for longer than pundits or public realise, he hasn't had the extensive stretch of excellence that Polamalu and Lynch can boast.
Overall, one lesson may be that in the modern era, the greatest defenses tend to be the ones with no bad players, not the ones with the most great players.
Eesh, that layout looked better in the box than in the post. If it's not clear, the left hand column at each position is my proposed first team, and the right hand column the second.
Thanks for posting that, Mr Shush. I struggled for a bit deciding whether to group Seymour with the DEs or the DTs, but ultimately decided that he should be a defensive end because that's the position he plays. DeMarcus Ware would be a DE and not an OLB in a 4-3, so if you want to call Seymour a DT you should call Ware a DE. That seems weird to me, which is why I kept Seymour as a tackle.
You didn't give much explanation for Sapp at DT and no Glover, KWilliams or JWilliams.
I don't have a problem with Ware over Vrabel. Has Vrabel ever been a top 5 LB in the game? Probably not. I think it's tough finding that 6th LB, and Briggs is a solid choice (not sure why you omitted Porter, though).
I agree that Barber's been helped by the Cover-2, but you'd have to really value quantity over quality to take Asomugha over him. I get that, though (I did take Holmes at RB).
I actually think this could be an interesting annual feature called "Team of the Last Decade." This team would then be 1999-2008, next year 2000-2009, then 2001-2010, etc. That way, no one is really "born at the wrong time" because they'll gain another year in the next year's team.
I've always taken issue with "all decade teams" in spite of how fun they are because of the way they tend to punish players based on when they played. For example, Marshall Faulk was unquestionably one of the best running backs of the last 15 years, but it's difficult (though certainly not impossible) to put him on an all-decade team for either the '90s or the '00s, which is simply unfair.
Very intriguing dialogue going on here. If fullbacks are being phased out then how come I don't see Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor in the backfield at the same time (I'm using Minnesota as an example)? Are most teams going to a single back set or two halfbacks, sacrificing a backfield blocker?
It seems to me that Chester Taylor's role has been as a pass catcher on throwing downs and to give AP a breather by spotting him (and doing it very well). Jimmy Kleinsasser has been the fullback, when not lined up at TE or up-back.
A couple years ago the Vikes had Tony Richardson, who was arguably the best fullback in the game. But he was let go after two seasons, marvelous ones at that. But they had Kleinsasser anyway, albeit injury-prone.
So I'm confused. If fullbacks are being de-valued in some way then why not keep Taylor in with AP and give defenses an absolute nightmare? Or should AP be the lone setback and Taylor spell him when needed? The Vikes drafted a wildcatter named Percy Harvin. Does this mean there is a shift going on to a different offensive scheme where the fullback is simply gone?
I like the team, except for the fact that you're putting Vrabel in there largely for his postseason success, but leaving out Vinatieri (who is arguably more important to the 3 NE rings than Vrabel was). I don't think you can talk about this decade and kickers without mentioning the guy that won 4 rings and made some of the most memorable kicks ever.
Scott,
I agree that Vrabel is a far from ideal choice; but I think there's a decent argument for him over the other competition, which is why I took him.
Vinatieri, though, does not have the same argument. We have awesome stats for field goal kickers; not so much for outside linebackers. Vinatieri's stats simply don't match up to a guy like Stover's, although surely Vinatieri is hurt somewhat by kicking in Foxboro. And as far as I can remember, he's made two of the most memorable kicks not; while that's two more than most kickers, it's still just two field goals. (Which equals the number of field goals he missed in a Super Bowl this decade.)
What would be interesting(and time consuming) now is a list of the best players at their best year at each position to make up teams. I.E., an All 'Pro' team for every franchise in the NFL. Good for arguments per franchise, and maybe even worth debating which franchise comes out the best all time. Obviously some teams have a rather short history and probably can't improve much, but still.
Back to my original post about the FB and Chase's response. You're not crazy and I now see the internal consistency of your logic. But I don't think its a problem to make a 12 person offense to include the FB. Besides, teams have only one RB on the field at a time except for rare occurrences (two years ago Dallas J JOnes and M Barber on the field. I think a valuable commodity gets unrecognized. Can you imagine no Darryl Johnson on the field for Emmitt Smith and thus no Johnson on an all decade team as FB?
You are way off with Sauerbrun over Lechler as punter. Lechler is probably the best punter of all time, and Sauerbrun is a steroid cheat who changed teams 4 times in the decade.
I would disagree that neither safety position "has a built in advantage over the other in terms of being more popular". Free safeties are MUCH more popular. Strong safeties don't make Pro Bowls and they don't make it to Canton. Apart from maybe non-pass rushing OLBs, it's the most underappreciated position in the game. Harrison should be on your team, IMO.
I'm a little surprised about Urlacher over Zach Thomas. Not sure I agree with that, regardless of AV. I don't think Vrabel is a sound choice. He might not make my top 10 OLBs of the decade.
And I might go with Mike Scifres as punter, despite that he's only played half the decade. Certainly I would rank him ahead of Sauerbrun. I'd probably put Moorman, Mitch Berger, Craig Hentrich, and Jeff Feagles ahead of Sauerbrun, too, but Scifres might even be a better choice than Lechler.
Once again, a very interesting post. Thanks.
Jeff Fisher's hatred of young players making him sit Keith Bulluck on the bench for no good reason for all of his first two years, plus his completely inexplicable and indefensible election to only 1 Pro Bowl, make me want to throw a lot of things very hard. Nothing against you, or AV per se, it just does.
The fact that Pro-Bowls have any affect on players overall rankings against peers to me is flawed logic.
In days of fans going crazy voting for their team and all of their players regardless of their performance has completely taken away from any validity the Pro-Bowl once had.
Added to that is the fact that the AP is very quickly losing my respect too, it all started with giving Bob Sanders DPOY for no explicable reason and continues to get worse with every year of All-Pro teams.
Here is my case for Adrian Wilson, aside from the fact he has been the heart and soul of a defensive unit that has garnered zero publicity. Yet despite this his name is still known, if Adrian had played in a bigger market his entire career people would be calling him Dawkins 2.0. I firmly believe that the top 4 safeties of this decade are Reed, Polamlau, Dawkins and Wilson. Shading out Sharper and Harrison.
For almost his entire career he has gone unappreciated, even during his best years the media and fans alike left him off their Pro-Bowl and All-Pro ballots, and is a major reason why one of his 2 pro-Bowl came in what I consider to be his 5th or 6th best season. He has never made an All-Pro 1st team and the 2nd team twice. Again one of his 2nd team All-Pros was in what I consider to be his 5th best season.
The man is a force against both the pass (in numerous different ways) and the run. He is a monster of a S at 6-3 225 and has athleticism that should have had him drafted well before the 3rd round after his time at NC State.
Having just completed his 8th season in the league, this man is one of if not my favorite player in the NFL right now. He is a player who can dominate TE's in one on one coverage, while he also has the ability to play short-medium zone coverage and read the QB for interceptions.
His career numbers among key stats that include 18.5 sacks including the DB record, 18 interceptions and an astounding 36.5 tackles for negative yardage against the run (Stuffs), he also has 58 PD's and 12 FF's to go with 2 99 yard TD returns (one on an INT one on a fumble)
**Earlier in the writeup I mentioned him making the Pro-Bowl in his 5th or 6th best season last year in 2008 when he was also named 2nd team All-Pro here is how I rank them**
2006 - Dominant player, dominant season. Did it in all facets of the game, probably his best season in deep coverage. Had 5 sacks, 4 picks and 6.5 stuffs to go with 4 FF. He made his 1st pro-bowl this year as well as being named 2nd team all-pro (Should have been 1st team)
2004 - An unheralded Wilson season. He did it amazingly around the LOS with 10 stuffs a number rarely reached by LB's let alone safeties. He added to that 3 interceptions and 11 pass deflections to go with 2 FF.
2005 - The year he broke the DB sack record and ended up with 8. He only added the 1 interception in this year, but he impact at and around the LOS was unmatched. He added 7.5 stuffs to this sack number for 15.5 negative plays. Great from a safety.
2002 - Wilson's first year of starting. He was used deep most of the time. A surprise considering his size and how dominant he already was at and around the LOS. He only picked up 1.5 sacks and 1.5 stuffs, but 4 interceptions from him this year as well as generally good coverage.
Then next would be 2008 or 2007 depending on what you look at.
2007 - 07 was the first year Wilson missed time due to injury. He missed the last 7 games of the year and despite having solid numbers with 4 stuffs and 2 Int's in the 9 games that is not where his impact was made.
In the final 7 games of 07 the Cardinals D without Wilson allowed more total points than they did in the first 9 and over 7 PPG less than they did with Wilson than without. The sack numbers also dropped by over 1 sack PG and both Rushing and Passing YPG numbers increased. I rate this is a year better than 08 due to the impact his loss had on the overall team defense, but many disagree.
If you cared to read all of that cool, if not, oh well your loss.
no offense, but Stover over Vinatieri is still insane. More than 1 kick this decade. The 45 yard blizzard kick to force OT vs. Oakland that 1st SB run. The OT game winner in that same game. The SB kick that year. The record tying playoff game vs. Baltimore in 06. Setting the playoff records that year for points and FG's in a playoff. Setting the record as the first player ever to be the deciding end game factor in 2 Superbowls.
And you failed to mention that one of those two SB misses this decade was a blocked kick that had no chance of making it.
Throw in he also became the #1 scorer in the post-season, the #1 kicker in the post-season, and plenty of other playoff records, and I could care less about a slight accuracy edge in the regular season.
Kickers careers are made with clutch kicks and there Vinatieri is the man. Yeah the stats are all there. Those same stats that say that Vanderjagt would have been on this list had he not retired a few years ago.
Vinatieri is likely headed to the HOF for what he accomplished this decade. Unless you can honestly say the same about any other kicker the past 9 years, then Vinatieri is the clear choice there.
It's your list, so do it how you want, but you are in a very very very very small minority if you think that anyone besides Vinatieri was the most influential kicker of the decade.
slash,
Let's take a look at the two kickers in every year (including '09) in this decade.
Extra Points: Vinatieri made 357/362 extra points; Stover made 280 out of 280. Stover wins, making 100% of his XPs to 98.6% for Vinatieri.
Under 20 yards: Vinatieri made 3/3, Stover made 6/6. Even.
20-29 yards: Vinatieri made 81 of 85 attempts, Stover 101 of 102. Stover wins, making 99.0% of his attempts to 95.3% for Vinatieri.
30-39 yards: Vinatieri made 78 of 90; Stover 75 of 81. Stover wins, making 92.6% of his attempts to 86.7% for Vinatieri.
40-49 yards: Vinatieri made 55 of 75; Stover hit 72 of 97. Stover wins, making 74.2% of his attempts to 73.3% for Vinatieri.
50 yards or more: Vinatieri was just 5/14; Stover hit six of twelve. Stover wins, hitting 50% to just 35.7%.
So where does that leave us? Stover was tied or better at every single range than Vinatieri. If you want to argue that Stover has kicked in friendlier environments, that may be true. But without being sure of how much friendlier they were, I've got no choice but to conclude that Stover was the better kicker for the decade of the '00s. He destroyed Vinatieri in this head to head matchup.
This decade, Stover set the records for most XP made in a row and most consecutive games with a field goal.
But if it's a 50 yard FG to win the game, no one is going to take Stover over Vinatieri. That's why he should be the choice here. He'll probably be the only kicker people remember from this decade. I think kicker is the only position in the game where what you do in crunch time matters more than anything else. XP's are routine plays. Many FG attempts are just letdowns to drives that wanted to finish in the endzone. A guy like Stover (or Vanderjagt) can kick all the 40 yard FG's in the 2nd quarter of a 7-0 game he wants to. But when the outcome of the game relies on their leg, they aren't as good. I know the only reason the 2007 Dolphins didn't go 0-16 was because Stover missed a 44 yard FG in OT.
At a point last year, it had been a while since Adam made a long FGA for the Colts. So he had GW kicks of 47 yards against Minnesota, 52 against New England, and 51 at San Diego. That's why he's the best.
In the clutch (4th QT/OT), Vinatieri has only failed 3 times this whole decade. His only misses were a shortie against Buffalo in a 2000 snow game (got the game-winner in OT), a blocked FG in OT against Houston in 2003 (eventually hit the game-winner), and his 29 yard shank against San Diego in 2007 (lost the game). I'd be absolutley stunned if anyone had a better track record (and did it in so many big games).
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Evidence?
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OK, so it looks like we've got one anecdote on each side so far. What do their other several hundred kicks say about this? (I honestly don't know, BTW)
I post this not to make a point, but to give interested people raw data to examine. I really haven't looked very closely at it.
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Here are all regular season Stover misses in this decade. An asterisk means that it was his last field goal attempt of that particular game:
Vinatieri:
Unfortunately, I don't have distances on the postseason FGs missed, but they are probably findable elsewhere.
Vinatieri is 36-42 in the postseason in this decade and the misses came on 1-27-2002, 1-10-2004, 2-1-2004, 1-14-2006, and 2-4-2007
Stover is 16-19 in the postseason this decade, with the misses coming on 1-14-2001, 1-28-2001, and 1-13-2002.
Looking at the 2008 Baltimore media guide, Stover (rookie year: 1991) has 13 GW kicks in his whole career. 5 of them were in OT, 6 of them were in the final 2 minutes of the 4th QT. One came with nearly 10 minutes left, and the other was in 1991 and I don't know any source that would have the time of the kick. Using what I assume to be the definition of a GW kick they're using (the whole 4th QT), he had 2 more last year (vs. Cleveland, vs. Tennessee in the playoffs). That gives him 15 for his career (1 postseason, 10 total this decade).
In the 2008 MG for Indy, it says that Vinatieri (rookie year: 1996) has made 20 GW kicks in the final minute of the 4th QT or OT. So they're not even using the whole 4th QT, just the final minute (understandable). He did it twice last year to make that 22 in just the final minute/OT (16 this decade, 3 postseason). But this leaves out his 46 yd FG on a frozen night in NE against the Titans in 2003, or his 52 yd GW against the Pats last season. Plus probably a few more, not to mention tying FG's in games that were eventually won. Realistically he might double Stover in GW kicks, and has played 5 fewer seasons.
That's the success side of it, now for failures...
Going back to 2000, as far as I can tell, the only game-tying/game-winning FG in the 4th QT/OT that Stover missed was that Miami 07 game. Vinatieri has the 3 kicks, but we know he eventually made the GW kick in 2 of the games. That's not much different than an offense that needs 2 drives to win a game at the end instead of one. People don't remember the 3 and out the Colts had, down 34-31 in the AFC-C. They remember the GW TD drive with the Addai score that made it 38-34. We do remember the shocking 29 yd shank on Sunday Night Football Vinatieri had against San Diego. So from what I can tell, they're tied 1-1 in game-losing kicks this decade. It both happened to them in the 07 season. I'm a bit surprised about that.
But when it comes down to the overall body of work, Vinatieri's kicks have meant much more for his teams, and he has a lot more GW kicks than Stover. He's been put in that situation more often and has thrived in it.
So are you standing by: "A guy like Stover (or Vanderjagt) can kick all the 40 yard FG’s in the 2nd quarter of a 7-0 game he wants to. But when the outcome of the game relies on their leg, they aren’t as good." ?
Vanderjagt - yes, no doubt about it
Stover - no
But I still think Adam is better. #18 slash said it's insane to put Stover over Vinatieri, but I actually thought the choice of Jeff Wilkins was much worse. Dome kicker, and the only kick I can remember with him is his miss against Carolina in the playoffs (double OT game) that would have won the game. That was during his best and only Pro Bowl season (2003). Add the fact that he retired after 2007 and there's just no way he should be ahead of Vinatieri for the decade.
Btw, Doug, what e-mail address do you usually check? Did you get my e-mail last week with the coaches file?
Sorry, Scott. I did get that email and definitely owe you an email back. Look for something a little later today.
Poor Charles Woodson, if only he had spent more of his career in Green Bay.