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An illustrative example: Lance Briggs and #31 for #6

Posted by Doug on March 29, 2007

What better example of the ideas in yesterday's post than this rumored trade between the Redskins and Bears.

Drew Rosenhaus, the agent for Bears' disgruntled Pro Bowl linebacker Lance Briggs, told that the Redskins informed him Monday that they would like to swing a deal that would send Washington's first-round pick, No. 6 overall, to Chicago for the Bears' first-rounder, No. 31, and Briggs.

Last year's #6 pick, Vernon Davis, signed a 5-year, 23 million dollar contract. Last year's #31 pick, defensive back Kelly Jennings, signed a 5-year, 10 million dollar contract. NFL contracts are notoriously tough to get a handle on, but I think in this case it's probably OK to assume that the difference between them is in actuality somewhere around $13 million in cap charges over five years.

I know this isn't exactly the same, but if Dan Snyder offered Briggs a signing bonus of $13 million and annual salaries in line with a typical starting linebacker, would that get him to Washington for the next five years? Probably not --- Joey Porter, who is a few years older and possibly not quite as good, got a $12 million dollar signing bonus from Miami earlier this offseason --- but it might be in the ballpark.

I'm not necessarily making a comment on whether this would or would not be a good move for either team. It's just a timely reminder about the core ideas in the Massey-Thaler paper: the choice for the Redskins isn't Gaines Adams (#6) vs. Ben Grubbs (#31). It's Gaines Adams vs. Ben Grubbs and Lance Briggs (or at least some substantial portion of Lance Briggs). Furthermore, even when someone like Lance Briggs isn't explicitly involved in the trade, the resources freed by taking Grubbs instead of Adams might conceivably get you someone like Briggs from the open market.

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 29th, 2007 at 4:04 am and is filed under NFL Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.