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ShareThisJason Witten (HOF Class of 2024)
Does that title strike you as odd? Jason Witten, at least at first glance, doesn't strike me as a HOF player. In 2007, he was named a first-team All-Pro by the Associated Press, and last season he was named to its second-team. But his lack of awards to date has more to do with the dominance of Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates than the productivity of Jason Witten. But putting aside the questions of 1) exactly how good Witten has been, 2) whether or not he should make the Hall of Fame one day, or 3) whether or not he's a HOFer right now, by the time he retires it looks like he'll wind up in the Hall of Fame. And that comes as a surprise to me.
While I'm nowhere near an expert on these matters, it seems as though the TE position was officially created, at least in name, once the T-Formation died out at the end of the '50s. Before 1960, receivers (or ends) were hybrid wide receivers/tight ends, joined in the lineup by three running backs. As teams moved towards a two-RB system, offenses moved the two ends farther out -- and were classifed as wide receivers and not ends -- and a new position, the tight end, would line up next to one of the tackles. Maybe some commenters will further explain the evolution of the position, but this is my quick way of saying that statistics for tight ends begin in 1960. Before that season, no one was labeled a tight end, which is background information for the next few paragraphs.
Jason Witten entered the NFL at age 21. That's very young for a player at any position, let alone tight end. So how has he done?
- Through age 21, he had more receptions than any other tight end through age 21, and was second in receiving yards (Tony Gonzalez).
- Through age 22, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.
- Through age 23, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.
- Through age 24, he was second in receptions (Tony Gonzalez) and second in receiving yards (Gonzalez) among tight ends.
- Through age 25, he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.
- Through age 26 (the 2008 season), he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end.
- With 40 receptions and 472 receiving yards in 2009, he will have more receptions and more receiving yards than any other tight end through the age of twenty-seven.
Jason Witten, at 26 years old, was one of the three best tight ends in the league last year, and he is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down. With Terrell Owens in Buffalo, Witten could see his numbers soar in '08. Footballguys.com projects Witten for another 900+ yards this season. Over the next three seasons, Witten needs just 1346 receiving yards to rank 2nd in receiving yards by a tight end through age 29. To catch Gonzalez, he'd need to average 959 receiving yards over the next three seasons, a high number due to the enormous year Gonzalez had at age 28. And while that number is reachable, Gonzalez is arguably the greatest tight end of all time; Witten can fall a bit short of Gonzalez and still be a shoe-in to Canton.
Witten may not "feel" like a Hall of Famer; he's been in the shadow of Jerry Jones, Bill Parcells, Tony Romo and Terrell Owens, and to some extent Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. And when he's up for induction, people will rightly argue that his numbers were inflated by his era. So let's move past his raw statistics.
He has already made five Pro Bowls in his career. Only Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders had made five Pro Bowls at an earlier age (all at age 25); two are in the HOF and one will be next year. In addition to Witten, seventeen other players have made five Pro Bowls by age 26. Eight are already in Canton; five more (Randy Moss, Champ Bailey, Junior Seau, Ray Lewis and Michael Strahan) will almost certainly be there five or six years after they retire. Of the other four, three played in small leagues in the pre-merger era (Jon Arnett ('57-'61), Earl Faison (AFL) and Jon Morris (AFL)), where it was, presumably, a bit easier to stand out. The fourth was John Offerdahl, a terrific linebacker for the Dolphins in the late '80s (and local hero) whose career was cut short by injuries.
Forty-seven players made five Pro Bowls by 27, a year after Witten. Twenty-three are already in the HOF and several more will make it there eventually. Of the players who started making the first of their five Pro Bowls by ages 25, 26 or 27 after the switch to the sixteen-game schedule, about two-thirds are either in Canton or will be there one day. Once again, I'm not discussing whether or not Jason Witten should make the HOF one day; such a discussion would involve a full consideration of his blocking ability. All I'm saying is that barring injury, it sure seems likely that Witten will make the Hall of Fame one day.
With Gonzalez now in the NFC, making the Pro Bowl might get a little harder for Witten. But he's still likely to make multiple Pro Bowls before he retires, and has a good chance to best the records Shannon Sharpe set for tight ends in receptions and receiving yards (that Gonzalez broke) before Witten hangs up his cleats. The only way, barring injury, that he doesn't end up with a strong HOF case is if multiple guys in the John Carslon, Dustin Keller, Shawn Nelson, Jared Cook, Chase Coffman, Cornelius Ingram and Jermichael Finley mold revolutionize the tight end position and consistently churn out 800+ yard seasons.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 14th, 2009 at 7:08 am and is filed under Player articles. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Just to prove that I can follow my own advice, I saved a quick thought for the comments as to whether Witten *should* make the HOF when he retires. While his raw numbers are impressive (i.e., most receptions/receiving yards by any TE ever through age 26), they are a bit misleading. He started his career at a very early age, he's played in 95 games already, and he's played in the most passer-friendly era in NFL history.
I didn't have time to run the numbers, but I suspect that even through age-26, his numbers on an era-adjusted, per-game basis are not the most impressive in NFL history (something that is certainly more important to determine dominance than the stuff in the post, but something that is much less likely to be used by the HOF voters). And the true HOF litmus test should be how many dominant seasons you have, not your career totals. To date, Witten still has only one incredibly dominant season. If you check out his VBD (a fantasy football number which does adjust for era), his 2007 season was only the 28th best among TEs since the merger; his '04 season is next, ranking 49th. So the anti-Witten backers will have some ammunition if Witten doesn't have one or two huge seasons the rest of his career.
And it should continue to go without saying that 1) this whole post assumes Witten stays relatively healthy, and 2) football players, in general, don't stay relatively healthy.
Not surprising at all to me. Still a young player and already one of the most productive TE's ever. He does need to get those TDs up (maybe it will happen with TO gone). If he had TDs like Gonzo/Gates, he'd be a lock right now.
I have a file on the 61 TE's with at least 250 career catches. Witten is 3rd in catches/game, 4th in yards/game, 24th in TDs/game.
TE is a position where few players have been good for a long period of time. Let's assume Witten is a lock for more than 500 yards this year (Gates as well). That would give them 6 seasons with at least 500 yards receiving (and Witten's are of the 750+ variety). The list of players to do that right now is only 16 players long, and 5 of them are in the HOF (with Sharpe & Gonzalez next).
Witten should have no problem making the Pro Bowl this season. That would give him 6, and move him out of a tie with many players that have 5. Only Steve Jordan (6), Charlie Sanders (7), Shannon Sharpe (8) and Tony Gonzalez (10) have more PB selections at TE. Like Witten, Jordan lacked the TDs.
And funny how one's perception in the media is so critical.
Player A - 95 games, 421 rec, 4711 yards, 11.2 ypc, 27 TDs, 4 Pro Bowls, 1 AP
8 games with 100+ yards, 0-3 in playoffs, 13 catches, 143 yards, TD
Player B - 95 games, 429 rec, 4935 yards, 11.5 ypc, 25 TDs, 5 Pro Bowls, 1 AP
8 games with 100+ yards, 0-3 in playoffs, 14 catches, 168 yards
One of those is Witten, the other is Shockey. We all know Witten is the better player, (probably) better blocker and teammate, and just keeps getting better. We know he has a great chance at the HOF, while that's a word that never enters the discussion with Shockey. But he hasn't greatly outplayed Shockey on the field, despite the perception around the league.
Not to derail the thread, but looking at that Witten/Shockey comparison makes me wonder why they don't match up more closely on each other's similarity scores. Could someone explain that for me?
Shockey has fallen out of the conversation because he hasn't been as good a receiver the past 3 seasons. In that time, he has 1 game with 100+ yards, 0 receptions of 30+ yards, and about a 42 yard/game average). Shockey has also required a lot more targets than Witten to get his production (694 vs. 618). That means that Witten has a much higher catch percentage (69.4% vs. 60.7%) and yards per target (7.99 ypa vs. 6.79 ypa).
"The only way, barring injury, that he doesn’t end up with a strong HOF case is if multiple guys in the John Carslon, Dustin Keller, Shawn Nelson, Jared Cook, Chase Coffman, Cornelius Ingram and Jermichael Finley mold revolutionize the tight end position and consistently churn out 800+ yard seasons." -- and TE Brandon Pettigrew.
Fair point, Patrick. I hadn't forgotten Pettigrew, but I think he's a different type of player than those guys. I don't think he'll be a 800+ yard receiver very often, but he could certainly wind up challenging Witten for Pro Bowls in a year or two.
Shockey is an interesting case. Based on his talent, he absolutely could have been a HOF-level player. The problem with him was first inconsistency and then injuries. But if he had lived up to his potential, he'd be better than Witten.
I just don't see Witten as in any way an unlikely or undeserving hall of famer. Obviously he's not there yet, but he is the best all-round tight end in the league at this point, and probably has been since 2007. He's been consistently very productive, has probably four more years of play at something like his peak to come - what current player his age has a more compelling case? Demarcus Ware, maybe? Fitzgerald, at a pinch? His touchdown numbers have suffered from spending most of his career on teams with elite red zone threats like Owens and Barber, from his own excellent blocking, and from catching passes from a quarterback who doesn't believe in the concept of touch, possibly because his name's unfortunate rhyming possibilities make him feel uncomfortable about doing that stuff with other boys.
If he and Shockey both retired tomorrow Witten would be only slightly less undeserving of enshrinement. However, Shockey is two years older and his career has been trending downward since at least 2005 (and arguably since his rookie year). It's not unreasonable to think Witten could retire with 3000+ more career yards than Shockey. As mentioned above, his per-target stats are also far more impressive, indicating that he is either kept in to block more or has lost more targets to quality outside receivers like Owens and Glenn.
Disclaimer: not a Cowboys fan (far from it) but may harbour self-flagellating homerish tendencies towards Witten thanks to Charley "Drafting Mario Williams was entirely my call. Oh yes" Casserly deciding to take Bennie "IR hat-trick" Joppru instead back in 2003.
Good points, Mr. Shush.
Here are the top career AV guys among players who were 26 or younger last season:
While I see the argument that you are trying to make and nobody is discrediting Jason Witten as an elite TE in this league, I have a problem with using a person's accomplishments at a certain age as criteria for their greatness, especially when comparing to other players at that age. It's apples to oranges really and you give one player and advantage for an early birthday or early entrance into the league and others a disadvantage for a late birthday or late entrance into the league. I never liked the stats comparisons between kobe and jordan based on their ages because as well all know, jordan had a couple years at nc before playing in the nba.
as statisticians, you guys should compare years in the league, whether someone was 21 when they entered the league or 25 when they entered the league.
for example, why dont we compare the first 3 years in the NFL for Witten, Gonzales, and Gates?
Jason Witten te 2003--2005 47 188 2084 11.09 13 286.40
Tony Gonzalez te 1997--1999 47 168 1838 10.94 15 273.80
Antonio Gates te 2003--2005 45 194 2454 12.65 25 395.40
Or maybe the first 4 seasons?
Jason Witten te 2003--2006 63 252 2838 11.26 14 367.80
Tony Gonzalez te 1997--2000 63 261 3041 11.65 24 448.10
Antonio Gates te 2003--2006 61 265 3378 12.75 34 541.80
So I guess my point is that he's a HOF worthy tight end, but should most definitely be behind Gonzales and Gates. we all know the pro-bowl shouldn't count for anything (LT got snubbed after a 1645 rush yds, 100 reception for 725 rec yds season). The "Witten had more...at this age" arguments aren't a legitimate basis for a player's accomplishments, biased and need to stop.
and yes, i am a chargers fan.
Why? There's a fundamental difference between someone being 21 when they enter the league and someone being 25. I don't think it's a coincidence that Philip Rivers and Chad Pennington both had awesome first years as starters at ages 25 and 26, while no 21 year old QB has ever done well. Being more physically and mentally mature is an advantage. So is gaining experience.
Now as a Chargers fan, you might want to argue that Gates deserves even more credit because he didn't have that experience since he didn't play football in college. But he's obviously the exception, and at least explicitly, this article is not about Antonio Gates.
I think using age analysis and season analysis are both appropriate at different times, and there are times when either is appropriate.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Philip Rivers and Chad Pennington both had awesome first years as starters at ages 25 and 26, while no 21 year old QB has ever done well.
While I don't disagree with your overall point that age can be a legitimate basis for comparison, I don't think this example really supports that point very much.
First of all, the sample size of 25-26 year old first-time starters at QB is much, much higher than that of 21 year old starters, so you'd have to examine the percentage of successful first time starters at different age groups for that argument to work.
Second, Fran Tarkenton did pretty well at 21 years old, and lots of QBs have done well at 22, so it's not like QBs in that age group never succeed.
Third, 25-26 year olds with 2-3 years of practice (as backups/third stringers/training camp roster fillers) on an NFL team would have a significant advantage over 21 year olds with 0 years of practice on an NFL team, just due to the training of NFL coaches and practice with NFL players. It's not obvious that the older first time starters are better because they are older, or because they have more practice on NFL teams. To test for that, you'd have to look at X year old first time starters who have Y years of practice with an NFL team vs. X year old first time starters who have (Y-N) years of practice with an NFL team. Then you'd have to compare the disparity in success rates between those two groups (if there is one) with that between the older and younger QBs (again, if there is one). That would make a neat blog post.
Witten had an interesting year. He broke 1,000 receiving yards (again) and had 94 catches, which even beats what most projected him for; on the other hand he only had two scores.
His career still is on an unbelievable trajectory; he's got 300 more receiving yards through age 27 than any other TE, ever. He's caught over 500 passes through age 27, and only one other TE (Gonzalez, 468) had more than 400 at that age.
He's 2nd all-time on the list of receiving yards (and receptions) by a TE through age 28, which is impressive since he's got a whole season to pad those numbers.
He needs about 925 receiving yards each of the next two years to tie Tony G for most receiving yards through age 29 by a tight end.
He made another Pro Bowl, giving him six such selections through age 27; only Jim Brown and Barry Sanders have more, with seven each.
Champ Bailey, Franco Harris, Joe Morris (AFL), Merline Olsen, Joe Schmidt, Junior Seau, Emmitt Smith, Mike Stratton (AFL), Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas are the other players with six Pro Bowls through age 27.
Only five other TEs -- Sharpe, Gonzalez, Charlie Sanders, Steve Jordan and Antonio Gates -- have made six Pro Bowls in their careers. It certainly looks that Witten, at just 27 years old, is well on his way to becoming a HOFer. I'd say unless something drastic happens, he's going to get in without much controversy.
Witten had another monster year: 94-1,002-9, and picked up another Pro Bowl nod and earned another first-team All-Pro selection.
He has the most receptions of any tight end through age 28 (617; Gonzalez is second with 570 and Ozzie Newsom is third with 440) and also has the most receiving yards by this age (6,967 compared to 6,905 for Gonzalez and 5,570 for Newsome). In fact, Randy Moss is the only player, period, with more receptions through age 28 than Witten.
Witten is one of only 11 players to earn seven Pro Bowls by his age 28 season, with Jim Brown and Barry Sanders the only players with more (eight apiece). Champ Bailey, Franco Harris, Jon Morris (AFL), Merlinn Olsen, Joe Schmidt, Junior Seau, Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas are the only other playes with seven PBs; all are in the HOF except for Seau (will be soon) and Morris.
If Jason Witten doesn't catch a pass the next two seasons, he would still rank 3rd all-time in receiving yards by a TE through age 30 (Gonzalez, Gates) and second in receptions (Gonzalez). If we project 163 catches and 1800 yards for Witten over the next two years -- conservative estimates if he stays healthy -- Witten would be at 800 receptions by age 30, with Gonzalez (721) the only one in the same stratosphere (Winslow and Newsome both had 541 through age 30). He could end up with close to 300 more catches through age 30 than Gates, who finished his age 30 season with 529 career catches. 1800 receiving yards would give him 8,797 for his career, just nudging past Gonzalez for first all-time (and, of course, well ahead of everyone else).
And while Kellen Winslow Jr., Brandon Pettigrew, Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis are threats to steal Pro Bowl berths, at this point, it's hard to imagine Witten not earning them year after year unless he suffers a significant drop in production. If Witten could make Pro Bowls in each of the next three years, he would hold the record for most Pro Bowl berths through age 31 at 10, tied with Merlin Olsen, Barry Sanders, Joe Schmidt, Junior Seau and Lawrence Taylor. At this point, I don't see how Witten isn't in the HOF by 2025, unless he takes pages out of the Brett Favre retirement handbook.