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p-f-r draft contest scoring
Congrats to JKL. Send me an email to claim your prize.
| BillM | JKL | BenM | Wthii | Ross | Jason | JeffP | StvH | Maur | Monk | Jdoub | Richie | Scott | MO | DanF | PFE | Pete | Sole | Sepp | DonP | |
| Mult | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.96 | 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.36 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.72 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.32 | 1.08 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Score | 1.50 | 5.44 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 1.62 | 3.06 | 3.69 | 1.02 | 0.70 | 1.11 | 0.57 | 0.09 | 0.99 | 0.74 | 0.42 | 0.75 | 0.96 | 3.67 | 0.38 | 0.84 |
| 1 | BQ | JR | CJ | JR | JR | JR | JR | CJ | JR | JR | JR | JR | JR | JR | JR | JR | JR | JR | CJ | JR |
| 2 | BQ | JT | JT | JT | JT | JT | JT | JT | JT | BQ | CJ | JT | CJ | BQ | CJ | CJ | CJ | CJ | CJ | CJ |
| 3 | BQ | JT | AP | AP | AP | BQ | BQ | JR | AP | AP | BQ | AP | AP | AB | BQ | AP | AP | BQ | BQ | AP |
| 4 | BQ | JT | JR | CJ | CJ | CJ | CJ | AP | CJ | CJ | JT | CJ | BQ | CJ | GA | GA | GA | GA | JT | GA |
| 5 | BQ | AP | GA | CJ | GA | AP | GA | BQ | GA | JT | GA | JA | JT | JT | JT | JT | JT | JT | JT | JT |
| 6 | BQ | AP | BQ | CJ | JA | AB | LB | LL | BQ | GA | LL | DR | JA | JA | AO | AO | LL | LL | AP | LL |
| 7 | AP | LB | BQ | TG | TG | AP | GA | LL | LL | LH | GA | GA | GA | LL | JA | BQ | AP | AP | BQ | |
| 8 | BQ | LT | JA | BQ | LB | LH | JA | LB | LL | JA | AO | LL | AO | AP | PW | LL | DH | LB | LL | JA |
| 9 | BQ | LT | AB | BQ | BQ | GO | AB | AO | AO | LB | LB | BQ | AB | AO | AP | BQ | LB | AO | LB | LH |
| 10 | BQ | LT | CH | BQ | LL | AO | RN | LH | LB | LH | CH | LB | LL | LL | LB | LB | LH | PW | LH | LB |
| 11 | BQ | LT | AC | BQ | AB | GA | AC | PW | PW | DJ | AC | TG | AC | LH | AC | PW | AO | TG | AO | RM |
| 12 | BQ | TG | PW | BQ | AO | LB | ML | JA | PW | AO | AP | GO | PW | PW | LH | LH | PW | DR | PW | PW |
| 13 | BQ | TG | AO | BQ | CJ | LL | AO | AB | LH | AB | AB | AO | DR | TG | AB | AB | JA | AC | JA | AO |
| 14 | BQ | TG | GO | BQ | DB | LT | GO | AC | GO | GO | GO | BQ | TG | LB | RN | RN | RN | JA | RN | LT |
| 15 | BQ | TG | DH | BQ | JM | JA | PW | ML | LH | LT | PW | AC | LB | DR | DR | PP | LT | LT | DR | JM |
| 16 | BQ | TG | ML | BQ | ML | ML | RM | GO | ML | ML | TG | ML | GO | QM | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML |
| 17 | BQ | PW | RN | BQ | SR | RN | DB | PP | LH | TG | RN | BQ | RN | PP | BM | BM | AC | LH | ML | DR |
| 18 | BQ | AR | DR | BQ | LH | MM | DR | JM | RN | JB | DR | AB | LH | DT | JM | DR | DR | JB | ML | TG |
| 19 | BQ | PW | DJ | BQ | DJ | DJ | DJ | LT | AS | AC | JM | ML | ML | DJ | RM | TG | TG | RM | RM | QM |
| 20 | BQ | AR | MG | BQ | LT | DB | PP | TG | DR | PP | JH | RN | RM | LT | TG | LT | JS | AR | LT | JB |
| 21 | BQ | PW | LH | BQ | AC | CJ | CJ | AR | JM | JM | JA | RM | JH | ML | DB | AC | AB | AB | AR | AB |
| 22 | BQ | PW | BM | BQ | RN | JM | CH | DB | AR | RM | RM | LH | DB | MG | PP | CJ | AR | MG | AR | AS |
| 23 | BQ | RM | DB | BQ | AR | DR | LH | JB | TG | CH | JB | JS | JS | DB | AR | AR | JH | BG | AR | BM |
| 24 | BQ | RM | TG | BQ | DH | PW | TG | DJ | TG | PW | JS | JD | AS | JS | MG | JB | RM | BM | MG | RN |
| 25 | BQ | RM | QM | BQ | RM | SR | QM | DR | TG | DR | BG | CH | EW | MM | GO | GO | GO | GO | GO | CH |
| 26 | BQ | RM | JH | BQ | TC | AC | JB | JH | BM | SS | LT | TG | JB | RN | JB | DT | BM | EW | GO | PP |
| 27 | BQ | DJ | PP | BQ | DR | MG | BM | RK | AR | AR | AR | JM | CH | BD | MM | TJ | BG | PP | GO | AC |
| 28 | BQ | DJ | BD | BQ | AG | QM | LL | RM | TG | RN | BM | DB | MG | EW | LT | AR | PP | DH | TU | CJ |
| 29 | BQ | DJ | LT | BQ | AS | RM | JB | MG | JS | JS | DB | TU | JB | JB | TE | TU | CH | RK | RK | GO |
| 30 | BQ | DJ | SR | BQ | PW | AS | MG | CH | MG | DB | DJ | DJ | DJ | SR | AG | DB | DB | AG | RK | JH |
| 31 | BQ | DJ | BG | BQ | AS | JB | TU | AS | CJ | BG | JB | DJ | LT | RM | JB | JB | AS | JB | BG | DJ |
| 32 | BQ | QP | BQ | JH | DH | LT | BG | JB | JH | SS | LT | SS | FF | DH | CH | JB | TC | PP | BD |
This entry was posted on Saturday, April 28th, 2007 at 6:52 am and is filed under NFL Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

I now expect the analysis of whether it was good to submit your entry early or late
I thought it was almost a requirement you go early for the bonuses, but Sole's results have me rethinking my strategy for next year.
while I freely admit my board was completely pilferred from Mel Kiper Jr (like I said - I was lazy but I couldn't resist not entering), I think there is something a bit wrong with the scoring system when I would have gotten waxed by a first day entry that included Jamarcus Russell in pick #1 and Mary Jane Rottencrotch picks 2-32. Just saying!
THe scoring system looked like it ended up pretty strange. THe person who just selected brady quinn for every pick outscored half of the field.
Making up interesting rules for contests like this is always a learning experience. Some things will definitely change for next year. That said, I'm not terribly concerned about monkeytime's or Dave's observations.
Picking BQ in every slot is an ultra-conservative strategy. Bill M was guaranteed some points, but he was also guaranteed not to get very many. Since this is a winner-take-all contest, I view it as irrelevant that he finished 8th instead of last. The point is that he had no real chance of finishing first.
monkeytime, I'm not following you. A first-day entry with JR in slot #1 and MJR in slots 2--32 would have been a terrible entry, scoring about 0.15 points.
I do think that I ended up putting too big a premium on being the one and only entrant to pick a certain guy. This contest was essentially over after pick #3. Next year, instead of giving points equal to:
1 / (# of entrants who picked the guy)
I'm going to give points equal to:
1 - (fraction of other entries who picked the guy)
For example, let's say with 21 entries, here are the payoffs for making the right pick:
This year Next year ======================================================== Only entry with correct pick 1.00 1.00 2 entries with correct pick .50 .95 3 entries with correct pick .33 .90 4 entries with correct pick .25 .85 ... 10 entries with correct pick .10 .50 ... 20 entries with correct pick .05 .00I'm open to suggestions on the multiplier, but I right now I was thinking it was OK.
Obviously it was pure skill, not. I used Kiper's list, except I picked guys in ranges, figuring I didn't have to be as accurate.
Doug, I don't think it was the point system's fault that I got 3 points for Joe Thomas. I think it was the later participants who did not necessarily adapt to the rules and the advantage they had in knowing what earlier posters had picked. Myself, or any of the early posters, should not have been allowed to have the opportunity to get 3 points on any reasonably competent early pick (Joe Thomas was a consensus top 5 guy).
My thinking was that this scoring system would basically come down to who was more accurate in the second half of the first round, and whether the late posters could get 3x as many right late as the early posters.
Here is the breakdown of how the first 10 posters vs. the second 10 posters performed by draft group. Early first, then late posters.
picks
1-4, E= 8/40; L= 22/40
5-8, E= 6/40; L= 7/40
9-16, E= 5/80; L= 4/80
17-24, E=5/80; L= 4/80
25-32, E=0/80; L= 0/80
Other than right at the top of the draft, the passage of time did not improve predictability.
Is there a prize for being in the 1st column>
doug i forgot about the rule that the value of a correct pick is divided by the other dudes who made it. it was really another commentary about the brady quinn guy. i certainly don't mind this entry, with is mix of laziness, humor, and real desire to beat the system in order to spite it, this is my kind of guy. And now that I spend more than half of a minute analyzing why he did well - I realize his high score is a combination of getting BQ correct at 22 and also nobody else getting BQ correct at 22. So be it. As for these little games, all I am concerned about is how to swandaggle Calvin Johnson away from Taco - who has time!
just looked at the table, so I am correcting myself: I realize his high score is a combination of getting BQ correct at 22 and also *[few others]* getting BQ correct at 22.
A word or 2 about my strategy. Conservative, yes. However, not exactly dumb.
I can't believe I did as well as I did. It doesn't show on here, but for pick #7, I predicted Minnesota would mess up and lose their pick.
1. I've been outspoken enough about not following college football, that I'm clearly an underdog in this sort of contest.
2. I was one of the first to enter. Had the contest not gone over very well, I had a chance of winning.
3. Even if you are a draft genius, if a team at the top pulls a rabbit out of the hat and drafts someone nobody expected, the order falls down 1 notch and your picks go down the drain.
4. It was fun
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Congrats to JKL