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Trivial observations from the simple rating system

Posted by Doug on June 22, 2007

Wednesday's post about the 49ers forced me to dust off the simple rating system and get it updated with 2006 data.

Last May I wrote a long post about the SRS. Read that if you're interested in the nuts and bolts. For now, you just need to know that I frequently use the SRS as my quick gauge of team strength that allows me to compare teams across divisions and across years.

Given their terrible point differential and weak schedule, it is predictable that the SRS thinks the 2006 49ers were the worst 7-9 team ever. Just for fun, I decided to find the best and worst (according to the SRS) teams at each record.

            BEST               WORST
Record    tm  yr  rating     tm  yr  rating
===========================================
 3-13    ind 1997  -4.3     ari 2000 -15.2
 4-12    cin 1979  -1.3     ari 2003 -12.6
 5-11    phi 1982  +0.8     stl 1985 -10.1
 6-10    den 1999  +3.4     nor 1973  -8.8
 7- 9    kan 2004  +5.3     sfo 2006  -8.7
 8- 8    jax 2006  +7.5     stl 2004  -6.0
 9- 7    sdg 2005  +9.9     ari 1998  -7.4
10- 6    sfo 1991 +10.9     chi 1977  -3.6
11- 5    sfo 1995 +11.8     atl 2004  -2.2
12- 4    pit 1979 +11.9     det 1991  +1.0
13- 3    gnb 1996 +15.3     bal 1970  +0.4

[NOTE: non-16-game-schedule teams have been mixed in with the closest 16-game record.]

That 1999 Broncos team, by the way, was the first team since the 1931 Frankford Yellow Jackets to play an entire season without facing a team that ended up with a losing record.

Another trivial observation: 2006 saw the smallest spread between the league's best and worst teams in nearly a decade. The Raiders may have looked worse than a typical worst-in-the-league team, but objectively they were actually pretty good for a worst-in-the-league team.

 YR     Best        Worst         Diff
=======================================
2006  nwe +10.2   oak  -9.6       19.8
2005  ind +10.8   sfo -11.1       21.9
2004  nwe +12.8   sfo -13.6       26.5
2003  kan  +8.3   ari -12.6       20.9
2002  oak +10.6   cin -10.5       21.1
2001  stl +13.4   buf  -9.5       22.9
2000  oak  +9.7   ari -15.2       25.0
1999  stl +11.9   cle -14.1       25.9
1998  min +14.9   phi -12.8       27.6
1997  den +10.7   sdg  -8.9       19.6
1996  gnb +15.3   nyj -10.1       25.4
1995  sfo +11.8   nyj -11.2       22.9
1994  sfo +11.6   hou  -7.3       19.0
1993  sfo  +9.7   ind -11.3       20.9
1992  sfo +11.8   nwe -11.0       22.8
1991  was +16.6   ind -17.3       33.9
1990  buf  +8.6   nwe -14.6       23.2
1989  sfo +10.7   dal -10.4       21.1
1988  min +10.9   sdg  -7.4       18.2
1987  sfo +13.1   atl -13.9       26.9
1986  nyg  +9.0   tam -15.4       24.4
1985  chi +15.9   stl -10.1       26.0
1984  sfo +12.7   buf -12.0       24.8
1983  was +13.9   hou -11.5       25.5
1982  nyj +10.3   hou -10.9       21.2
1981  phi  +8.7   bal -15.8       24.5
1980  phi  +9.7   nor -10.4       20.2
1979  pit +11.9   det -11.0       23.0
1978  dal +11.0   sfo  -9.1       20.1
1977  den +11.3   tam -10.7       22.1
1976  pit +15.3   tam -19.7       35.0
1975  pit +14.2   nor -14.1       28.3
1974  was +10.2   atl -12.3       22.6
1973  ram +13.4   hou -16.7       30.0
1972  mia +11.0   nwe -17.4       28.4
1971  bal +10.4   buf -13.4       23.9
1970  min +15.1   bos -15.9       31.0

This entry was posted on Friday, June 22nd, 2007 at 4:43 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.