Wondering about Tomlinson
Posted by Chase Stuart on September 19, 2007
Two weeks ago, every intelligent football fan on the planet would have said that LaDainian Tomlinson was the best running back in the NFL. In 2007 LT led the league in rushing, set the all time single-season touchdown record, and led the league in the famous yards over 3.0 statistic. So surely it is a surprise to all that through two weeks, Tomlinson currently ranks last among all RBs in yards per carry in 2007.
Tomlinson has played two tough defenses (Chicago and New England), and we're still dealing with a pretty small sample size. Those arguments would make a lot of sense if say, Tomlinson was averaging 2.9 yards per carry this year. But he's averaging 1.9 YPC right now, which puts him in the company of Derrick Blaylock 2006, Lamar Gordon 2004 and Ciatrick Fason 2005. Needless to say, I think there's cause to worry.
I wondered if maybe things just look bad because it's the first two weeks, and not weeks eight and nine. I looked at all RBs from 1995 to 2006, to see how many had: (a) had 35 or more carries in consecutive games, and (b) averaged 2.00 or fewer yards per carry in those games. Well, only five RBs in those twelve seasons met those criteria:
Edgerrin James 2006 crd 1.82 3.44 Kevan Barlow 2005 sfo 1.91 3.30 Quentin Griffin 2004 den 1.97 3.66 Eddie George 2001 oti 1.78 2.98 Darick Holmes 1996 buf 2.00 3.02
The last column shows how many YPC they averaged in the full season, and the second to last shows how many they averaged in their miserable two game slump. I love Tomlinson as much as the next guy, but that's a pretty miserable group of players to be paired with. Barlow, Griffin and Holmes were busts that had short spurts of success. James and George, while each would earn four trips to Hawaii, were miserable in those seasons and shells of their former selves. The idea that the best spin we could put on Tomlinson's 2007 season is "hey, he could do what Edgerrin James did in 2006" isn't very comforting to Chargers fans.
Let's expand things a little bit, though. Here's a list of RBs with 30+ carries that averaged 2.20 YPC or fewer over consecutive games during the same span:
Larry Johnson 2006 kan 2.00 4.30 Warrick Dunn 1998 tam 2.09 4.19 Marshall Faulk 1998 clt 2.13 4.07 Mario Bates 1995 nor 2.00 3.90 Chris Fuamatu-Ma’afala 2001 pit 2.17 3.78 Mike Alstott 2002 tam 1.90 3.75 Quentin Griffin 2004 den 1.97 3.66 Karim Abdul-Jabbar 1996 mia 1.81 3.64 Jamal Anderson 2000 atl 1.90 3.63 Kevin Jones 2005 det 2.08 3.57 Karim Abdul-Jabbar 1998 mia 1.97 3.56 Jamal Anderson 1997 atl 2.03 3.46 Edgerrin James 2006 crd 2.10 3.44 Edgerrin James 2006 crd 1.82 3.44 Kevan Barlow 2004 sfo 2.20 3.37 Kevan Barlow 2005 sfo 1.91 3.30 Darick Holmes 1996 buf 2.00 3.02 Darick Holmes 1996 buf 2.08 3.02 Arlen Harris 2003 ram 2.14 3.00 Eddie George 2001 oti 1.78 2.98 Marshall Faulk 1996 clt 2.15 2.96 James Jackson 2001 cle 2.18 2.84 LeShon Johnson 1999 nyg 2.09 2.34 Lamar Gordon 2004 mia 1.74 1.83
The above list is sorted by the right column, yards per carry average in the full season. And yes, just a year ago, Larry Johnson suffered through a miserable stretch in weeks five and six. I suspect people will make of this what they like; if they own Tomlinson in a fantasy league, they'll accurately point out that superstar RBs like Johnson and Marshall Faulk (1998 version) had down games and still were studs. Conversely, if you don't believe Tomlinson can turn it around, you can point out that he's hit a level of ineptitude rarely matched, and by some of the worst RBs in modern memory. Even when Faulk did it (1996 version), he had by far the worst season of his career, and maybe Tomlinson is headed for his own down year.
It's easy to suggest that Tomlinson will be fine, and I'd never say otherwise. He's just too talented for me to put it print that Tomlinson won't be a stud. But I am concerned by the lack of comparables in recent history. I suspected that there'd be several star RBs that endured bad stretches, but really, there's very little to go on. Just three of the 24 RBs that have looked as bad at LT has looked averaged 4.00 YPC that season. Tomlinson has been flat out bad, so far, and who knows when he'll turn it back around. And while New England and Chicago are tough, Larry Johnson averaged 3.4 YPC against the Bears (LT 1.5), and Thomas Jones averaged 3.0 YPC against New England (LT 2.4). And it's not like we haven't seen the old Tomlinson run all over good defenses or the Patriots, before.
On the other hand, Tomlinson has had some ugly moments over the years. He had 17 carries for 7 yards in a game against the Eagles in 2005. He had a five game run in the middle of 2004 where he averaged just 2.88 yards per carry. Previously, his lowest YPC averages in a two game stretch were 2.24, 2.69, 2.69, 2.78 and 2.86. All I know for now, is 1.94 certainly sticks out. It's the worst two-game stretch of his 99 game career. His offensive line has performed significantly worse than they did in '06, and Tomlinson himself hasn't looked as good, either. At this point, I'd feel a lot better about his future chances if he said he had the flu the past two weeks and just didn't tell anyone.
September 19th, 2007 at 8:11 am
Here's another point of hope: in 1997 Barry Sanders had 53 yards in his first two games, and 2,000 yards in the next 14 games. Sanders' 53 yards came on 25 carries, so he just misses your statistical cut, but that might encourage Tomlinson fans.
September 19th, 2007 at 10:25 am
But I am concerned by the lack of comparables in recent history.
hmmmm...
This article takes me way back to weeks 4 and 5 of 2006.
September 19th, 2007 at 10:43 am
I'm sure the strength of opposition defenses has a lot to do with it. Tomlinson faced the Bears and Patriots, both of which tend to be known for their solid defenses.
Plus, 2-game sample sizes can be heavily skewed by one or two breakaway runs. Those will come for a RB like LT, but nothing guarantees they'll be spread evenly among 2-game sets.
September 19th, 2007 at 12:06 pm
I think we're ignoring an important consideration here:
In addition to facing two tough defenses, Tomlinson now has Norv Turner calling the plays on offense. The impact that this has had on the Chargers' offensive performance, and therefore on Tomlinson's performance, can't be measured. It just can't.
As an example of the mind-boggling incompetence that is "Norvilicious", here's what he called when the Chargers were down by more than 2 TDs in the fourth quarter, on 3rd-and-30:
A play action pass.
Yeah, I'm thinking that the Patriots defense isn't going to respect the run much in this situation, even if the fake handoff is convincing (and it wasn't). You're not fooling anyone, Norv. You've got 30 yards to go, everyone in the stadium knows you're going to pass. All you did was waste a potential blocker on a useless fake. Seriously, play action on 3rd-and-30. Unbelievable. I would've fired him on the spot after that.
September 19th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
Though Alex, RBs under Norv Turner usually perform very well. If I'm not mistaken, he was either head coach or offensive coordinator for Emmitt Smith, Stephen Davis, Terry Allen, Ricky Williams, Ladainian Tomlinson, LaMont Jordan, and Frank Gore, and in several of those cases he was the HC or OC during those RBs' best seasons. Over the course of a season, I wouldn't expect Turner to be responsible for a lack of production from Tomlinson.
September 19th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Turner was also the OC for the Chargers and Tomlinson in 2001.
September 19th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
I might be reading between the lines too much but if you are suggesting that Turner was the OC for the Chargers in 2001, and that was his least productive year, and therefore Turner is a negative for Tomlinson, may I also point out that Emmitt Smith's least productive year (outside of his Arizona days) was his rookie year as well. Same goes for Walter Payton. As a Tomlinson owner, yes I am concerned, no I don't expect last years production however I do expect him to kick ass and be top 3 for sure - perferably the top rb. However the panic button is not being hit - two games is not a trend, nor will it ever be.
September 19th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Monkeytime, I was merely pointing out that Turner has history with LT. I thought Turner did a good job with the rookie Tomlinson. I'm aware that rookies are generally less productive than veterans.
It's not the same thing, and all three would later suffer career killing injuries, but do you remember 1999? Steve Young, Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson all stunk before getting hurt, after historic 1998 seasons. No one is immune from having a down year.
Now I don't expect Tomlinson to have a down year, but if he was to have one, this is certainly how it would start. I recently did a mock draft for Footballguys and selected Tomlinson at 1.01, so I think he's still "the guy". But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried that he might not have a big year. I think Addai and Henry are probably safer picks at this point to have big years.
But the proof's in the pudding, and I did take LT first. But I thought it was interesting how few star RBs have endured a stretch like this.
September 19th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
Like I said, I was reading between the lines too much. Your example in your latest comment seems a bit flawed though. Those three (Youmg, Davis, Anderson) were, in fact as you said, injured. Yes, of course, if Tomlinson were to be hurt - then he too would join this list - however, injury is a risk to all players. Sure, carries, age, and other factors may add or subtract the level of risk - but to say that Addai and Henry have less (or at least dramtically less) risk of injury that LT is the flaw. All it takes is an LT injury to prove me wrong - but I guess I am saying the injury bug hits everyone eventually, usually, and you really can't forecast that at all. Getting 2 yards per carry is a prequisite for getting benched, not hurt. Of course, we both know LT aint getting benched. Are you REALLY saying you'd trade LT for Addai or Henry straight up right now? You can't be serious?
September 19th, 2007 at 6:47 pm
No, I wouldn't trade LT for Henry or Addai straight up right now. That's why I took LT at 1.01 in my mock draft.
But I do think LT carries a bit more risk. Henry and Addai seem like locks for 1400 rushing yards this year. LT? I don't think he's as safe, although his upside is a lot higher.
It's probably an academic argument, and I love LT, I just want to make sure we're recognizing how terribly he's been playing (or at least, how terrible his statistics are). I still love LT, and wouldn't be shocked if he bounced back to win MVP.
September 19th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
year week opp ypc
2005 7 phi 0.41
2007 1 chi 1.47
2004 9 nor 2.12
2004 12 kan 2.19
2001 6 den 2.32
2001 8 kan 2.38
2007 2 nwe 2.39
2003 15 gnb 2.55
2003 8 mia 2.58
2003 1 kan 2.62
here are LT's ten worst YPC games of his career. Week 1 wasnt his worst! Plus, at the rate he improved from week 1 to week 2, he will be lights out in no time. Mix in some passing and receiving TD's and we are in bidnez.
September 20th, 2007 at 6:07 pm
"Though Alex, RBs under Norv Turner usually perform very well."
Yeah, I know he's got a good history, but still...play-action on 3rd-and-30? I can't shake the feeling that he's lost his touch, and badly. I'm sure LT will bounce back, I'm just not sure how much.
September 22nd, 2007 at 1:35 am
Is play-by-play data readily available that would allow variations on calculating the YO3.0 stat?
What I would suggest is to treat all runs of 3 yards or less as 0 yard carries, regardless of whether the play went for 2.99 yards or -7 yards.
That way any run of less than three yards would be treated equally as unsuccessful runs. It would remove most of the penalty for getting hit in the backfield, leveling things out a bit for runners playing behind atrocious lines.
It would be interesting to see how the Top 60 RB Seasons Of All Time would shake out under such a modified formula.
September 23rd, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Tomlinson with 62 carries for 22 yards (2.82 YPC), today.
September 24th, 2007 at 11:38 am
ok, now i am worried
October 15th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
After his game against the Raiders last night, his YPC jumped from 3.3 to 4.3. Looks like he's back on track for a not-terrible year.