This is the debut post in a series I'm calling "Play Index Finds", where I use one of our shiny new Play Index tools to search for an interesting stat. What's great about these posts is that they're fun and educational, because while you'll be bombarded with interesting query results, you'll also learn about the Play Index along the way thanks to the sample searches I run. And everyone loves something that's fun and educational, right?
Anyway, I was checking out ESPN's fantasy projections a while ago, and I saw that Drew Brees was expected to once again be the best QB in the league. No surprise, but what caught my attention was how monstrous his projected numbers were: 4,827 yards, a 64.5 Comp%, and 30 TD as a baseline projection. I mean, he did throw for 5,069, 65.0, & 34 last season, but how many QBs have ever put up the kind of numbers they project Brees to have in '09, not even considering the season he's coming off of? As it turns out, four -- and one of them is Brees himself:
Player Year Age Tm Lg G Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Dan Marino* 1984 23 MIA NFL 16 362 564 64.20% 5084 48 Drew Brees 2008 29 NOR NFL 16 413 635 65.00% 5069 34 Kurt Warner 2001 30 STL NFL 16 375 546 68.70% 4830 36 Tom Brady 2007 30 NWE NFL 16 398 578 68.90% 4806 50
Here's what those guys did in the year before their banner campaign:
Player Year Tm Lg G Comp Att Cmp% Yards TD Dan Marino* 1983 MIA NFL 11 173 296 58.4% 2210 20 Drew Brees 2007 NOR NFL 16 440 652 67.5% 4423 28 Kurt Warner 2000 RAM NFL 11 235 347 67.7% 3429 21 Tom Brady 2006 NWE NFL 16 319 516 61.8% 3529 24 Average 14 292 453 64.4% 3398 23
Even if we pro-rate that to 16 games, we end up with an average of 4,027 yards and 28 TD in year Y-1, a far cry from the crazy numbers Brees put up last year. In other words, for the four players on the list, their 4,800 Yds/64.0 Cmp%/30 TD season was a peak year, something they had been building to for at least a season beforehand. None of them put up their monster numbers on the heels of an even better season the year before. So if Brees were to follow up his 2008 performance with the one ESPN sees for him this year, it would rank as one of the absolute greatest 2-year stretches by any QB ever, in terms of raw statistics.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, September 8th, 2009 at 2:24 pm and is filed under PI Finds. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.