SITE NEWS: We are moving all of our site and company news into a single blog for We'll tag all PFR content, so you can quickly and easily find the content you want.

Also, our existing PFR blog rss feed will be redirected to the new site's feed. ยป Sports Reference

For more from Chase and Jason, check out their work at Football Perspective and The Big Lead.

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Posted by Jason Lisk on September 11, 2009

I just want to go on record as saying Darrius Heyward-Bey will not be a bust.

That is all.

Well, actually, that's not all. Yesterday, Richie commented that the Raiders have drafted a lot of busts, and listed Heyward-Bey. (I'd link to his player page but, weird thing, he doesn't have one yet). Well, I'm singling out Richie here (forgive me), but it's not like that view would be considered controversial, because that is what virtually everyone says. Ever since he was drafted seventh overall, he has been identified as a bust, because, God forbid, he was drafted higher than expected. If I could buy stock in Heyward-Bey at this point, I would, not because I think he is destined to be a star, but because his actual value likely exceeds the perception.

Do I have any reason to believe this? Well, yes, actually. It's the unbiased pre-draft views of the "draft experts". The same draft experts talking about how bad of a pick it was. Heyward-Bey was pretty universally viewed as a late first round pick. If someone had drafted him at #25, we would be inundated right now with talk about how he has so much speed and upside. Here's a list of the forty-two receivers drafted between picks 20 and 40 from 1980-1999. The median career receiving yards was 4,260, median years as a starter is 4.5. Those numbers would certainly not be bust worthy.

So, even if we assume that he is not a typical top ten wide receiver, and instead should have been drafted later in the first round, he has a decent chance of turning out like Darnay Scott or Derrick Alexander. And if he does that, you are not allowed to consider him a bust.

Now, that is all.

This entry was posted on Friday, September 11th, 2009 at 8:37 am and is filed under Player articles, Rant. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.