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ShareThisDarrius Heyward-Bey
I just want to go on record as saying Darrius Heyward-Bey will not be a bust.
That is all.
Well, actually, that's not all. Yesterday, Richie commented that the Raiders have drafted a lot of busts, and listed Heyward-Bey. (I'd link to his player page but, weird thing, he doesn't have one yet). Well, I'm singling out Richie here (forgive me), but it's not like that view would be considered controversial, because that is what virtually everyone says. Ever since he was drafted seventh overall, he has been identified as a bust, because, God forbid, he was drafted higher than expected. If I could buy stock in Heyward-Bey at this point, I would, not because I think he is destined to be a star, but because his actual value likely exceeds the perception.
Do I have any reason to believe this? Well, yes, actually. It's the unbiased pre-draft views of the "draft experts". The same draft experts talking about how bad of a pick it was. Heyward-Bey was pretty universally viewed as a late first round pick. If someone had drafted him at #25, we would be inundated right now with talk about how he has so much speed and upside. Here's a list of the forty-two receivers drafted between picks 20 and 40 from 1980-1999. The median career receiving yards was 4,260, median years as a starter is 4.5. Those numbers would certainly not be bust worthy.
So, even if we assume that he is not a typical top ten wide receiver, and instead should have been drafted later in the first round, he has a decent chance of turning out like Darnay Scott or Derrick Alexander. And if he does that, you are not allowed to consider him a bust.
Now, that is all.
This entry was posted on Friday, September 11th, 2009 at 8:37 am and is filed under Player articles, Rant. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
I hereby set the cut-off at 37 points of career AV for DHB to be or not to be a bust.
I think the cutoff for "disappointment" status will basically be whatever Michael Crabtree's career AV is. Assuming Crabtree ever plays, that is.
Hey! I also added that it's probably early to proclaim Heyward-Bey a bust so far.
37 is too high. Looking at other top 10 receivers, you are basically saying that David Boston was a bust, and applying the bus test to Roy Williams, he would be a bust if he never played another down.
I'd put it somewhere around 25 or lower. Charles Rogers, Lam Jones -- busts
Reggie Williams, probably a bust.
Boston, Koren Robinson, etc -- not busts. Unfulfilled promise, yes, bust, no. Those guys turned in good seasons at one point.
37 = median AV of the players in your link above.
It seems like your argument hinges on how you define "bust". If a bust is someone who does not perform at or above his approximate expected talent level, then sure, maybe DHB is unlikely to be one. But isn't a more reasonable definition of a bust someone who fails to end up being worth the overall expenditure in draft picks/money/opportunity cost a team paid to get him?
For example, if you spend your first round pick on a guy universally projected to go undrafted, and then he doesn't even make the roster, is he a bust? I would think yes, because he was a waste of a draft pick/contract/whatever.
I mean, it's not DHB's fault that he got taken way earlier than projected, but it still sets the bar a lot higher for him.
(Also, consider it the other way: If he has the right to demand 7th-overall money from the Raiders, don't they have the right to demand 7th-overall talent?)
Looking at all 1st round receivers from 1960-2000...
90th percentile:
89 AV, 186 G, 764 R, 10716 Y, 75 TD
75th percentile:
66 AV, 155 G, 517 R, 7845 Y, 51 TD
50th percentile:
37 AV, 102 G, 285 R, 4301 Y, 26 TD
25th percentile:
15 AV, 59 G, 102 R, 1720 Y, 7 TD
10th percentile:
6 AV, 26 G, 37 R, 570 Y, 3 TD
Perhaps our expectations are skewed by the elite. Three of five first round receivers never make a pro-bowl. One in five are only listed as a starter for one year or less. So either the "bust" bar for a 1st round WR has to be low, or we should expect a fairly large number of busts.
Barnes, yes, but what is "7th overall talent?" Ike Hilliard? Let me be clear with what I meant by my short post.
I'm not saying that Darrius Heyward-Bey shouldn't be graded as a 7th overall pick, or that we should cut him some slack in evaluating his career. I'm saying that even if we assume that he was drafted too high, and morally is a late first round pick based on potential/talent/etc., the odds are that he will have a decent career.
I don't consider a career AV of 37 to be a bust, and I don't think looking at the median is a good way to define whether someone is a bust. Playing in over 100 games means you were better than a lot of other guys. Looking at MattieShoes list, bottom 25% is more appropriate.