A golden age for tight ends
Posted by Doug on Friday, March 24, 2006
Maybe it's the new rules --- or rather the new enforcement of the old rules, starting in 2004 --- that is creating a glut of pass-catching tight ends. Or maybe it's just a fluke that several good ones have entered the league in the past few years. In 2005 tight ends accounted for 18.2% of receiving yardage, which is the highest figure since 1985. Below is a table indicating the percentage of receiving yards and TDs accounted for by tight ends each year since 1978.
Year PctYD PctTD Top Tight Ends
1978 17.6 22.2 Childs (869/4), Casper (852/9)
1979 16.9 20.6 Childs (846/5), Newsome (781/9)
1980 16.7 22.2 Winslow (1290/9), Casper (796/4)
1981 16.6 22.0 Winslow (1075/10), Senser (1004/8)
1982 18.6 25.6 Winslow (721/6), Newsome (633/3)
1983 18.7 24.7 Christensen (1247/12), Winslow (1172/8)
1984 20.3 24.1 Christensen (1007/7), Newsome (1001/5)
1985 20.5 23.8 Christensen (987/6), Shuler (879/7)
1986 16.5 17.7 Christensen (1153/8), Bavaro (1001/4)
1987 15.9 18.4 Bavaro (867/8), Christensen (663/2)
1988 14.1 15.4 Jackson (869/6), Shuler (805/5)
1989 13.2 16.1 Holman (736/9), Jackson (648/3)
1990 13.4 16.6 Jones (747/5), Jackson (670/6)
1991 12.9 17.6 Cook (808/3), Novacek (664/4)
1992 12.4 16.1 Novacek (630/6), Sharpe (640/2)
1993 15.7 20.3 Sharpe (995/9), Green (942/5)
1994 14.2 18.3 Coates (1174/7), Sharpe (1010/4)
1995 14.8 14.7 Coates (915/6), Sharpe (756/4)
1996 14.0 16.0 Sharpe (1062/10), Walls (713/10)
1997 16.0 21.6 Sharpe (1107/3), Dudley (787/7)
1998 15.2 20.3 Sharpe (768/10), Wycheck (768/2)
1999 14.6 20.5 Gonzalez (849/11), Walls (822/12)
2000 15.5 21.0 Gonzalez (1203/9), Sharpe (810/5)
2001 14.5 24.3 Gonzalez (917/6), Sharpe (811/2)
2002 15.4 19.7 Shockey (894/2), Heap (836/6)
2003 16.7 19.7 Gonzalez (916/10), Sharpe (770/8)
2004 17.3 25.8 Gonzalez (1258/7), Gates (964/13)
2005 18.2 23.2 Gates (1101/10), Shockey (891/7)
This kind of tight end production was commonplace back when Christensen, Winslow, and Newsome roamed the earth. Now it's back. And where are those extra receptions and yards coming from? From the running backs, it turns out.
Year PctYD PctTD Top Receiving RBs
1978 26.6 15.3 Young (704/5), Galbreath (582/2)
1979 27.7 19.7 Washington (750/3), Hofer (662/2)
1980 29.1 19.5 Harper (634/3), Brown (623/2)
1981 27.7 21.2 Andrews (735/2), Brown (694/2)
1982 25.1 18.1 Andrews (503/2), Wilder (466/1)
1983 24.0 18.6 Nelson (618/0), Andrews (609/4)
1984 21.0 15.7 Allen (758/5), Wilder (685/0)
1985 23.1 17.3 James (1027/6), Craig (1016/6)
1986 25.3 17.2 Anderson (871/8), Walker (837/2)
1987 23.9 15.5 Walker (715/1), James (593/3)
1988 23.9 17.5 Byars (705/4), Williams (651/3)
1989 21.7 17.6 Byars (721/0), Thomas (669/6)
1990 20.7 17.7 Byars (819/3), Williams (699/0)
1991 18.8 14.2 Thomas (631/5), Delpino (617/1)
1992 21.6 15.2 Harmon (914/1), White (641/1)
1993 21.1 11.9 Kirby (874/3), Harmon (671/2)
1994 21.3 13.8 Watters (719/5), Centers (647/2)
1995 18.9 11.8 Centers (962/2), Loville (662/3)
1996 19.0 13.4 Centers (766/7), Alstott (557/3)
1997 19.2 12.7 Lee (825/3), Faulk (471/1)
1998 17.7 12.5 Faulk (908/4), Lee (667/2)
1999 18.7 13.4 Faulk (1048/5), Barber (609/2)
2000 19.6 14.1 Anderson (853/2), Faulk (830/8)
2001 18.6 13.1 Faulk (765/9), Staley (626/2)
2002 19.0 14.0 Garner (941/4), Holmes (672/3)
2003 18.4 12.0 Tomlinson (725/4), Holmes (690/0)
2004 16.4 10.6 Westbrook (703/6), Davis (588/1)
2005 15.4 10.7 Westbrook (616/4), Jordan (563/2)
It appears that last season was the first time in more than 20 years that no running back caught 700 yards worth of passes.
All this fits with my half-baked theory that screen passes just do not work anymore. When I was a kid, I never saw a screen pass that didn't go for 12 yards or more. I wondered why they didn't run more of them. Now it seems that defensive linemen are just too smart. Instead of a jailbreak, they let one guy pressure the quarterback and the rest of them peel back and maul the receiver.
This entry was posted on Friday, March 24th, 2006 at 6:11 AM and filed under History. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Post a comment or leave a trackback.
Doug, very interesting question. I like your approach, however, I think this would be beautifully illustrated in a chart. To me, the point of this information wasn't who was #1, but the trends over time.
Keep up the good work!
Posted on 24-Mar-06 at 11:03 am | PermalinkOffensive schemes tend to come in waves in the NFL so I wouldn't necessarily jump to the conclusion that defensive linemen have become smarter. The NFL is constantly evolving and adjusting defensive schemes and it sometimes takes a little while for them to catch up with new offensive plans. I'd bet that we'll see sreens come back and be successful again at some point but right now jsut isn't the right time.
Posted on 24-Mar-06 at 2:34 pm | PermalinkInteresting conclusion. I think the screen pass was originally designed to be something of a trick play, just to keep defenses off-balance. It was never intended to be a primary offensive weapon.
It will be interesting when footballoutsiders.com finishes compiling their game charting data, to which teams use screens most often and most effectively.
Posted on 25-Mar-06 at 5:48 pm | PermalinkHere's a quick chart showing percentage of receiving yards by position, from 1978 to 2005. I used Doug's data above. What's notable to me is how dead the late 70s/early 80s were for WRs.
[url=http://img152.imageshack.us/my.php?image=rychart2gu.jpg][img=http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/2258/rychart2gu.th.jpg][/url]
Posted on 25-Mar-06 at 6:01 pm | PermalinkSorry about the formatting.
Posted on 25-Mar-06 at 6:01 pm | PermalinkInteresting numbers, although I disagree with the demise of the screen pass. Patriots basically went to the Superbowl in 2001 on the strength of their screens, and it is still a frequent part of their game plan. They don't overpay for large tackles and offensive linemen, so the screen remains part of how they combat the pass rush.
Posted on 25-Mar-06 at 9:14 pm | PermalinkOnce the trend for smaller, quicker, more athletic linemen returns, so will the success of screen passes.
Posted on 31-Mar-06 at 4:59 pm | PermalinkPersonally, I think the demise of the screen pass was hastened most by the change in the DB/WR rules to favor the offense. Teams are playing significantly more zone today to compensate. The screen is more effective against man coverage.
Posted on 03-Apr-06 at 9:44 am | Permalink