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PI Finds: Jets Have Brady’s Number

Posted by Neil Paine on September 21, 2009

Tom Brady and the Patriots looked pretty vulnerable yesterday afternoon against Rex Ryan's New York Jets defense, as near-constant blitzing and pressure from all sides caused the normally unflappable Brady into rushed, inaccurate throws in New England's 16-9 defeat. Brady's numbers were ugly for the game: 48.9 Comp%, 53.1 passer rating, 4.6 YPA, and 3.6 AY/A. In fact, take a look at his Game Log, and you can see that it's among the worst performances in Brady's career. Among games in which he attempted at least 25 passes, here are his worst QB ratings:

Year G# Date Age Tm Opp Result Cmp Att Yds th Int Rate
2003 1 9/7/2003 26-035 NWE @ BUF L 0-31 14 28 123 0 4 22.5
2006 8 11/5/2006 29-094 NWE IND L 20-27 20 35 201 0 4 34.0
2005 11 11/27/2005 28-116 NWE @ KAN L 16-26 22 40 248 1 4 42.5
2002 6 10/13/2002 25-071 NWE GNB L 10-28 24 44 183 1 3 44.0
2002 14 12/16/2002 25-135 NWE @ TEN L 7-24 14 29 134 0 1 47.2
2007 14 12/16/2007 30-135 NWE NYJ W 20-10 14 27 140 0 1 51.5
2009 2 9/20/2009 32-048 NWE @ NYJ L 9-16 23 47 216 0 1 53.1

It was his 7th-worst regular season game by QBR, and his worst since the 2nd Jets game of 2007. In his last 2 games vs. the Jets, he's just 37-for-74 with 356 yards, 0 TD, and 2 INT. Here are his worst YPA games:

Year G# Date Age Tm Opp Result Cmp Att Yds th Int Y/A
2006 13 12/10/2006 29-129 NWE @ MIA L 0-21 12 25 78 0 0 3.12
2002 15 12/22/2002 25-141 NWE NYJ L 17-30 19 37 133 1 1 3.59
2002 6 10/13/2002 25-071 NWE GNB L 10-28 24 44 183 1 3 4.16
2003 1 9/7/2003 26-035 NWE @ BUF L 0-31 14 28 123 0 4 4.39
2002 7 10/27/2002 25-085 NWE DEN L 16-24 15 29 130 1 0 4.48
2009 2 9/20/2009 32-048 NWE @ NYJ L 9-16 23 47 216 0 1 4.60

Again, one of his worst, although he didn't average as few per throw as he did vs. the Jets in December 2002. Finally, here are his worst games by Adjusted Yds/Att:

Year G# Date Age Tm Opp Result Cmp Att Yds th Int AY/A
2003 1 9/7/2003 26-035 NWE @ BUF L 0-31 14 28 123 0 4 -2.04
2006 8 11/5/2006 29-094 NWE IND L 20-27 20 35 201 0 4 0.60
2002 6 10/13/2002 25-071 NWE GNB L 10-28 24 44 183 1 3 1.55
2001 7 10/28/2001 24-086 NWE @ DEN L 20-31 25 38 203 2 4 1.66
2004 14 12/20/2004 27-139 NWE @ MIA L 28-29 18 29 171 3 4 1.76
2005 11 11/27/2005 28-116 NWE @ KAN L 16-26 22 40 248 1 4 2.20
2002 15 12/22/2002 25-141 NWE NYJ L 17-30 19 37 133 1 1 2.92
2002 14 12/16/2002 25-135 NWE @ TEN L 7-24 14 29 134 0 1 3.07
2006 13 12/10/2006 29-129 NWE @ MIA L 0-21 12 25 78 0 0 3.12
2007 14 12/16/2007 30-135 NWE NYJ W 20-10 14 27 140 0 1 3.52
2009 2 9/20/2009 32-048 NWE @ NYJ L 9-16 23 47 216 0 1 3.64

At least he fares better here. But yesterday's game was somewhat rare in that it was a rough outing early in the season (first 4 games) for Brady:

Year G# Tm Opp Result Cmp Att Yds th Int AY/A
2003 1 NWE @ BUF L 0-31 14 28 123 0 4 -2.04
2009 2 NWE @ NYJ L 9-16 23 47 216 0 1 3.64

Of Brady's 10 worst performances by AY/A, half have come in December, and it's not hard to understand why -- winter (in New England or otherwise) isn't always conducive to tossing around a pigskin. But take solace, Pats fans and/or Brady fantasy owners, in the fact that among months in which he's played at least 20 career games, September is his 2nd-worst behind December:

Month G Cmp Att Yds th Int AY/A
December 30 590 946 6408 43 19 6.78
September 24 546 846 6150 40 21 7.10
November 29 601 954 7123 54 26 7.37
October 29 584 940 6898 58 18 7.71

Clearly, nobody was rushing out to drop Brady from their roster this morning, but still, you can see that while he's rarely played quite this badly early in the year, there's at least some historical precedent of Brady not playing his best in September but picking up steam as the season went into October.

This entry was posted on Monday, September 21st, 2009 at 11:19 am and is filed under PI Finds. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.