PI Finds: Jets Have Brady’s Number
Posted by Neil Paine on September 21, 2009
Tom Brady and the Patriots looked pretty vulnerable yesterday afternoon against Rex Ryan's New York Jets defense, as near-constant blitzing and pressure from all sides caused the normally unflappable Brady into rushed, inaccurate throws in New England's 16-9 defeat. Brady's numbers were ugly for the game: 48.9 Comp%, 53.1 passer rating, 4.6 YPA, and 3.6 AY/A. In fact, take a look at his Game Log, and you can see that it's among the worst performances in Brady's career. Among games in which he attempted at least 25 passes, here are his worst QB ratings:
| Year | G# | Date | Age | Tm | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | th | Int | Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 1 | 9/7/2003 | 26-035 | NWE | @ | BUF | L 0-31 | 14 | 28 | 123 | 0 | 4 | 22.5 |
| 2006 | 8 | 11/5/2006 | 29-094 | NWE | IND | L 20-27 | 20 | 35 | 201 | 0 | 4 | 34.0 | |
| 2005 | 11 | 11/27/2005 | 28-116 | NWE | @ | KAN | L 16-26 | 22 | 40 | 248 | 1 | 4 | 42.5 |
| 2002 | 6 | 10/13/2002 | 25-071 | NWE | GNB | L 10-28 | 24 | 44 | 183 | 1 | 3 | 44.0 | |
| 2002 | 14 | 12/16/2002 | 25-135 | NWE | @ | TEN | L 7-24 | 14 | 29 | 134 | 0 | 1 | 47.2 |
| 2007 | 14 | 12/16/2007 | 30-135 | NWE | NYJ | W 20-10 | 14 | 27 | 140 | 0 | 1 | 51.5 | |
| 2009 | 2 | 9/20/2009 | 32-048 | NWE | @ | NYJ | L 9-16 | 23 | 47 | 216 | 0 | 1 | 53.1 |
It was his 7th-worst regular season game by QBR, and his worst since the 2nd Jets game of 2007. In his last 2 games vs. the Jets, he's just 37-for-74 with 356 yards, 0 TD, and 2 INT. Here are his worst YPA games:
| Year | G# | Date | Age | Tm | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | th | Int | Y/A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 13 | 12/10/2006 | 29-129 | NWE | @ | MIA | L 0-21 | 12 | 25 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3.12 |
| 2002 | 15 | 12/22/2002 | 25-141 | NWE | NYJ | L 17-30 | 19 | 37 | 133 | 1 | 1 | 3.59 | |
| 2002 | 6 | 10/13/2002 | 25-071 | NWE | GNB | L 10-28 | 24 | 44 | 183 | 1 | 3 | 4.16 | |
| 2003 | 1 | 9/7/2003 | 26-035 | NWE | @ | BUF | L 0-31 | 14 | 28 | 123 | 0 | 4 | 4.39 |
| 2002 | 7 | 10/27/2002 | 25-085 | NWE | DEN | L 16-24 | 15 | 29 | 130 | 1 | 0 | 4.48 | |
| 2009 | 2 | 9/20/2009 | 32-048 | NWE | @ | NYJ | L 9-16 | 23 | 47 | 216 | 0 | 1 | 4.60 |
Again, one of his worst, although he didn't average as few per throw as he did vs. the Jets in December 2002. Finally, here are his worst games by Adjusted Yds/Att:
| Year | G# | Date | Age | Tm | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | th | Int | AY/A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 1 | 9/7/2003 | 26-035 | NWE | @ | BUF | L 0-31 | 14 | 28 | 123 | 0 | 4 | -2.04 |
| 2006 | 8 | 11/5/2006 | 29-094 | NWE | IND | L 20-27 | 20 | 35 | 201 | 0 | 4 | 0.60 | |
| 2002 | 6 | 10/13/2002 | 25-071 | NWE | GNB | L 10-28 | 24 | 44 | 183 | 1 | 3 | 1.55 | |
| 2001 | 7 | 10/28/2001 | 24-086 | NWE | @ | DEN | L 20-31 | 25 | 38 | 203 | 2 | 4 | 1.66 |
| 2004 | 14 | 12/20/2004 | 27-139 | NWE | @ | MIA | L 28-29 | 18 | 29 | 171 | 3 | 4 | 1.76 |
| 2005 | 11 | 11/27/2005 | 28-116 | NWE | @ | KAN | L 16-26 | 22 | 40 | 248 | 1 | 4 | 2.20 |
| 2002 | 15 | 12/22/2002 | 25-141 | NWE | NYJ | L 17-30 | 19 | 37 | 133 | 1 | 1 | 2.92 | |
| 2002 | 14 | 12/16/2002 | 25-135 | NWE | @ | TEN | L 7-24 | 14 | 29 | 134 | 0 | 1 | 3.07 |
| 2006 | 13 | 12/10/2006 | 29-129 | NWE | @ | MIA | L 0-21 | 12 | 25 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3.12 |
| 2007 | 14 | 12/16/2007 | 30-135 | NWE | NYJ | W 20-10 | 14 | 27 | 140 | 0 | 1 | 3.52 | |
| 2009 | 2 | 9/20/2009 | 32-048 | NWE | @ | NYJ | L 9-16 | 23 | 47 | 216 | 0 | 1 | 3.64 |
At least he fares better here. But yesterday's game was somewhat rare in that it was a rough outing early in the season (first 4 games) for Brady:
| Year | G# | Tm | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | th | Int | AY/A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 1 | NWE | @ | BUF | L 0-31 | 14 | 28 | 123 | 0 | 4 | -2.04 |
| 2009 | 2 | NWE | @ | NYJ | L 9-16 | 23 | 47 | 216 | 0 | 1 | 3.64 |
Of Brady's 10 worst performances by AY/A, half have come in December, and it's not hard to understand why -- winter (in New England or otherwise) isn't always conducive to tossing around a pigskin. But take solace, Pats fans and/or Brady fantasy owners, in the fact that among months in which he's played at least 20 career games, September is his 2nd-worst behind December:
| Month | G | Cmp | Att | Yds | th | Int | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December | 30 | 590 | 946 | 6408 | 43 | 19 | 6.78 |
| September | 24 | 546 | 846 | 6150 | 40 | 21 | 7.10 |
| November | 29 | 601 | 954 | 7123 | 54 | 26 | 7.37 |
| October | 29 | 584 | 940 | 6898 | 58 | 18 | 7.71 |
Clearly, nobody was rushing out to drop Brady from their roster this morning, but still, you can see that while he's rarely played quite this badly early in the year, there's at least some historical precedent of Brady not playing his best in September but picking up steam as the season went into October.
September 21st, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Interesting that the Jets' blitz-wacky defense was able to contain the Patriots. Because blitz-wacky defenses, although they sack the quarterback and get monster turnovers, can give up big plays. Certainly makes Rex Ryan look like a defensive genius, much like his father.
September 21st, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Hard to believe that one of Brady's worst game was during his "magical" 2007 season, although that performance was very similar to his first Super Bowl.
September 21st, 2009 at 2:57 pm
The last time Brady played the Jets (2007), that was his worst game of the season. The Jets weren't even blitzing and he had all day to throw. Pretty much the opposite of yesterday. But the Jets coverage was great. Revis is coming into elite status.
September 21st, 2009 at 3:03 pm
If I recall, it was also a bitterly cold, wet day at Gillette Stadium, which explains the difficulty passing. Yesterday the weather was great, but so was the Jets defense.
September 21st, 2009 at 3:53 pm
The difference yesterday seemed to be that often in the past he had been able to bring his team back in the last 2 minutes, even in a game that he struggled in up to that point. At least, that seems to be my perception, especially of the 2003-2004 Pats.
September 21st, 2009 at 4:40 pm
I saw the title of this and I was sure it would be posted by Chase. Now I'm confused.
September 21st, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Larry, the difference yesterday is he had to bring them back from a TD. Usually (like 03-04) it was a tied game or a FG game and they would get a FG. Not a long history of Brady bringing NE back from a TD deficit in the 4th. They had 3 cracks at it too, but I don't believe they ever made it to midfield. Strong defensive performance authored by Rex Ryan.
September 21st, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Jason W: Haha, yeah, I am a Pats fan, but I try not to let it color any analysis I do -- after all, I am the one who infamously ranked Brady the 54th best QB of all-time...
September 21st, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Scott, good point there. It definitely seemed like the defense did more to keep them in striking distance during those runs than Brady did in winning those games. It's easier for a team to get into FG range than to drive the entire field. Ryan's the real deal, it looks like. IIRC, the Ravens had the best shot at beating the 2007 Pats with his defense slowing Brady. As a Steelers fan, I'm glad he's in another division now.
September 22nd, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Neil, as long as you made that list back around 2000, I don't think anybody would have a problem with it. In fact, those same 2 numbers still come into play for Brady's current ranking-I have him about 4th or 5th.