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ShareThisCheckdowns: Shaun Hill
After 12 NFL starts, Shaun Hill now holds an impressive 9-3 record. For an undrafted QB on a team that's struggled for years, that's quite an impressive mark. Hill is the 15th QB since Tom Brady* to win 8 or more of his first twelve starts. Some of the players -- Kyle Orton anyone? -- got their great records on the strength of their defenses. Other guys -- Marc Bulger, Chad Pennington, Tony Romo -- were really difference makers who led their teams like veterans.
wins cmp att pyd ptd int ay/a name 8 249 352 2768 22 4 8.60 Chad Pennington 8 233 363 3172 22 11 8.59 Tony Romo 12 170 256 2224 13 8 8.30 Ben Roethlisberger 10 257 394 3159 24 13 7.75 Marc Bulger 10 232 360 2600 16 6 7.36 Philip Rivers 9 189 331 2453 14 8 7.17 Rex Grossman 9 204 334 2285 12 3 7.16 Damon Huard 9 231 355 2491 16 10 6.65 Tom Brady 8 187 336 2191 9 6 6.25 David Garrard 8 200 354 2562 11 14 6.08 Jake Delhomme 8 232 372 2323 12 12 5.44 Drew Brees 8 159 297 1839 11 10 5.42 Vince Young 8 160 276 1779 7 13 4.83 Tarvaris Jackson 9 165 309 1591 9 13 3.84 Kyle Orton
So what's going to happen to Shaun Hill? In 12 starts (ignoring his numbers in games he did not start), he's 235-374 for 2,546 yards with 17 TDs and 9 INTs. That amounts to 6.63 adjusted yards per attempt. With 9 wins, that puts his career on a very Brady-like path. Of course, he could just as easily become the next Damon Huard or Rex Grossman. If nothing else, I think Shaun Hill has flown under the national radar.
What do you guys think of Shaun Hill?
*Excluding 2008 data.
This entry was posted on Saturday, September 26th, 2009 at 9:42 am and is filed under Checkdowns. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Unless you have additional criteria I'm not seeing, you missed both Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan -- each ended 2008 with 11 wins, each was 8/12 by the 12th game.
Oops. Thanks J.R. I meant to say that all QB start data was from '60 to '07. I haven't yet incorporated the QB start data from last season into my database. Thanks.
J.R.: Ryan and Flacco were both 8-4, with Ryan (7.85) posting terrific numbers and Flacco (6.38) more average numbers.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/1MKGd
Shaun Hill just feels more like a Rex Grossman or a Kyle Orton than a Ben Roethlisberger or Tony Romo. Last week in his win, he barely had any passing yards.
You don't need many passing yards when your RB gets 200+.
I remember being mildly impressed by Hill in the time I saw him as a backup for the Vikings in the preseason, and I was a little sad to see him go. I think he's a capable and efficient enough player to carve out a nice Mark Brunell-type career.
I think Shaun is maturing into a real winner.
I think Shaun Hill seems exactly, almost freakishly, like Jake Delhomme. Surprisingly good decision-making, but absolutely no physical gifts (accuracy, arm strength, mobility, etc.). Since he has SF fans on his side now, as long as the team doesn't ask too much of him (which has happened to Delhomme), he could have a good career there.
If he's on a Brady like path, that means the 49ers are going to win the SB this year.
I suspect he will have a Steve Deberg/Dave Kreig type career. Or perhaps more like Chad Pennington. Given his new head coach, maybe he'll be like Jim McMahon (on the field, not off).
I like Hill, but I don't think he's going to have some sort of storied career. Certainly not Brady'esque. I doubt he'll have a whole lot of 300 yard passing games, but not many 3 INT games either. If the Niners defense can stay strong and put him in a position to succeed, I think he can play relatively mistake-free... just not flashy.
I was rooting for the Cardinals late last season. They played the 49ers in about week 15 or 16. Shaun Hill nearly beat the Cardinals in that game. I was slightly impressed. When I watch him, I don't see anything special - but he seems to get the job done.
If I'm not mistaken, everybody on your list has started their careers in the last decade. Is that a coincidence?
No, Richie. I was just looking at the QBs since Brady in '01.
I think something's wrong with your query. According to this page: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MariDa00.htm Dan Marino was 7-2 in games he started in 1983. Then in 1984, he started off 11-0. That means he won 13 of his first 15 NFL starts.
OK, I figured there must be a qualifier I missed. "since Tom Brady".
I saw Shaun Hill play the Rams in St. Louis last season. He was awful. He had receivers running free in the secondary all game long but rarely saw them, or maybe he just preferred tossing one up into double coverage. When he did spot the open man he was largely inaccurate on throws more than 10 yards downfield. It was grizzly, and J.T. O'Sullivan was warming up on the sidelines late in the third quarter, but the Niners stuck with Smith.
He found Isaac Bruce for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Then he chucked up a 50-yard prayer with a couple minutes left, it was hauled in by Josh Morgan, and the Niners won 17-16.
He does look like he knows what he's doing when he runs, but if he were to consistently play like he did in that game I saw versus the Rams, the Niners will go nowhere with him at quarterback. Of course, that game could be the exception, and based on his record when he starts, it probably was, but he looked as bad as I've ever seen for three quarters that day. And I grew up a St. Louis Cardinals fan.
Well he nearly won the game yesterday. He certainly hasn't done anything to lose the games for the 49ers. For the most part he's mistake free. The INT yesterday didn't appear to be his fault. And the way Singeltary was barking at the TE for giving up on the route I'd say my assumption is correct.
Hill is just one of those guys that gets it done. When the 49ers were deciding if it should be Alex Smith or Hill in the preseason..it was very clear to me who the better QB was. The ball leaves his hand much quicker. Seems to be much sharper reading blitzes.
But let's not confuse him with Joe Montana.
One area that often gets neglected, a rather nebulous but important one is "pocket presence." He seems to have a good feel when he drops back and thus, helps him in making good decisions. He keeps maturing and already is a solid starter. Prospects for spectacular--probably low but then even Brady was not "all that" until about his 3rd year as a starter, at least in most people's estimation.