Off the Mark
Posted by Chase Stuart on October 18, 2009
On a day where Tom Brady made Doug Williams' second quarter in Super Bowl XXII look pedestrian, there was some horrific QB play going on a few miles south of Gilette Stadium. It's rare when you can really blame one player for a loss, but Mark Sanchez today is that guy. Some agonizing footnotes in one of the most unbelievable losses in Jets history:
- For only the fifth time since 1960, and only the second time in twenty years, a team had a 210-yard rusher and lost. Thomas Jones' historical day -- 22 carries, 210 rushing yards, 1 TD -- went for waste. Since 1960, teams with a 200-yard runner are now 101-7 in the regular season.
- You might think that teams with a 200-yard rusher should have an even better record. Well, that's because in the first six losses, the losing team with the 200-yard rusher allowed an average of 35.5 points to their opponents. Those games were high scoring affairs where both offenses were clicking. That's what makes the Jets loss so spectacular; to have a dominant runner and to hold a team to 16 points is almost always a recipe for victory. Right? Before today, Walter Payton held the "record" for most rushing yards in a loss where his team allowed 16 or fewer points. On Thanksgiving Day 1981, Payton rushed for 179 yards and the Bears held the Cowboys to 10 points. Only problem? The Bears scored nine.
- Since the merger, the four biggest rushing performances on a losing team where the opponent scored 16 or fewer points were at the feet of just two running backs. In addition to the Thanksgiving day loss, Payton rushed for 157 rushing yards in a Monday Night loss to the Broncos, 16-7. As for Thomas Jones and his 210 yards, he almost certainly had a feeling of deja vu today. Because 52 weeks ago, the Jets lost as a big favorite 16-13 in overtime, despite a huge rushing day by Jones. Last year the opponent was the Raiders, who overcame Jones' 157-yard game thanks to a terrible game by the Jets quarterback.
- But it wasn't just Thomas Jones' legs that ran roughshod on the Bills; Leon Washington chipped in with 99 rushing yards and the Jets team rushed for 318 yards. If that sounds like a ton of rushing yards, it is. That's the most rushing yards by a losing team in a game since 1944 and the second most in NFL history. In 1944, the Cleveland Rams rushed for 320 yards in a 14-10 loss to the Redskins. Rushing for 300 yards and losing wasn't exactly common in the pre-modern era, but it's really uncommon now.
- From 1932 to 2008, NFL teams were 142-8 in games where they rushed for 300 or more yards. Since the merger (and excluding this season) NFL teams were 66-1 in games where they rushed for 300 yards; the one loss was this game where O.J. Simpson set the NFL record (since broken) for rushing yards in a game. Since the rule changes in 1978 to open up the passing game, NFL teams were 39-0 before this season in games with 300+ rushing yards.
- So how do you lose a game with an unstoppable running game backed by a strong defensive performance? Mark Sanchez was an abominable 10/29 for 119 yards with 0 TDs and 5 INTs, and was sacked twice, losing 23 yards. In adjusted net terms, that's -129 passing yards on 31 dropbacks, or -4.2 ANY/A. That's worse-than-Jamarcus-Russell bad. Our PFR game logs don't include sack data, so we need to look at simple AY/A. Sanchez averaged -3.66 AY/A on Sunday, the second worst game in the NFL this year; only Jake Delhomme's miserable season opener ranks as worse.
- But what really makes Sanchez' ineptitude so unique isn't how bad he was, but rather how bad he was for as long as he was. Most QBs with terrible games are bad on 10 or 15 throws, but Sanchez was awful on 29 passes. Among quarterbacks with 25 pass attempts in a game since 1978, Sanchez' -3.66 AY/A ranks as the fifth worst performance. If you adjust for era, it's arguably one of the worst games in NFL history.
- Another way to look at it -- Sanchez had -106 adjusted yards. He became the third Jets QB and 31st NFL QB to have fewer than -100 adjusted yards in a game since 1978.
year tm opp cmp/att AdjYd pyd ptd int 1982 gnb det 7/19 -141 39 0 4 Lynn Dickey 1984 nor sfo 2/7 -130 5 0 3 Richard Todd 1988 sea sfo 1/12 -129 6 0 3 Jeff Kemp 1978 oti pit 12/26 -129 96 0 5 Dan Pastorini 2000 sea mia 6/15 -126 54 0 4 Jon Kitna 2003 was dal 6/26 -124 56 0 4 Tim Hasselbeck 1983 sea rai 3/9 -123 12 0 3 Dave Krieg 1982 nyj mia 15/37 -122 103 0 5 Richard Todd 1979 tam chi 5/19 -120 60 0 4 Doug Williams 1979 oti pit 4/16 -119 16 0 3 Dan Pastorini 1986 sdg kan 4/17 -118 42 1 4 Tom Flick 1992 nyj pit 1/4 -118 17 0 3 Ken O'Brien 1985 oti buf 3/14 -113 22 0 3 Warren Moon 1978 sfo pit 10/28 -112 113 0 5 Scott Bull 1986 oti cle 5/23 -112 68 0 4 Warren Moon 1980 chi pit 2/7 -111 24 0 3 Vince Evans 1991 phi was 4/14 -111 24 0 3 Pat Ryan 1992 rai phi 3/10 -110 25 0 3 Todd Marinovich 1985 kan ram 14/32 -109 161 0 6 Todd Blackledge 1988 oti kan 3/14 -109 26 0 3 Brent Pease 1979 cin oti 6/11 -108 27 0 3 Ken Anderson 2006 min chi 11/26 -107 73 0 4 Brad Johnson 2009 car phi 7/17 -107 73 9 4 Jake Delhomme 2009 nyj buf 10/29 -106 119 0 5 Mark Sanchez 1997 clt min 5/8 -106 29 0 3 Kelly Holcomb 2005 sfo clt 9/23 -106 74 0 4 Alex Smith 2002 chi tam 7/19 -102 78 0 4 Henry Burris 2006 chi gnb 2/12 -102 33 0 3 Rex Grossman 1983 crd kan 5/13 -102 33 0 3 Jim Hart 2006 chi min 6/19 -101 34 0 3 Rex Grossman 1994 crd dal 5/9 -101 34 0 3 Jay Schroeder
- How bad was Mark Sanchez? He managed to make Kerry Collins look good. Thanks to what went down in the boxscore as a -22 yard completion to Nate Washington, Kerry Collins managed to throw for -7 passing yards. That's not net passing yards, which includes a deduction for sack yards lost; it's gross passing yards, in a very literal sense. Negative passing yards on double digit attempts? That's historically bad; but, alas, it wasn't Mark Sanchez bad.
October 18th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
Sanchez was awful, but your article was great! Happy Birthday!
October 18th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
This Jets-Bills games was very similar to this Broncos-Chargers game in 1975, except the team with the 6 INTs and 300 rushing yards was the one with the game winning kick in overtime: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/197511300den.htm
October 18th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Mark Sanchez has a 26.5 passer rating over his last 3 games. Ouch...
October 19th, 2009 at 12:29 am
Awesome! In short, you have seized upon something, but have left me wanting more after digesting Week 6. Keep it up!
October 19th, 2009 at 5:09 am
you man me lol
it was a rather pathetic game
October 19th, 2009 at 7:08 am
Sanchez is very young, and it showed. He played like a boy among men and I think unless the offensive philosophy changes to short quick passes, short outs and progresses slowley to downfield throws, we're in for the same 'ol Jets this season. And by the way, Ryan has got to get better. He can certainly talk the talk, but his coaching and his team aren't walking the walk.
October 19th, 2009 at 7:44 am
Meh!!!
This team was supposed to be RUN FIRST TEAM... Even Bills fans questioned the passing play calls... You have a rookie QB in his 1st bad weather game and you are running at will... That was THE WORST DISPLAY OF COACHING I HAVE EVER SEEN....
I actually Give Sanchez a pass, though I am Worried... Fact is the Jets should have won this game. Sanchez should have been able to go to the tape learn and come out for the next bad weather game with a little more experience and confidence...
RUN THE FREAKING BALL. You have to make the Bills march the field and give them a chance to give the game away like they often do.. With the lead, even if you punt and kill the clock you win Vs the Bills...
Horrible Just horrible... Sorry Mark Sanchez for having to put up with this BS.
October 19th, 2009 at 8:44 am
On the suggestion front (though I'm sure you're already considering it), will you guys be implementing "team game" searches in the play index any time soon? So I can see for myself W-L records when a team rushes for 300 yards?
October 19th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Wow! I didn't pay much attention to that game, but I'm really surprised. Sanchez hasn't been lighting the league up or anything, but until two weeks ago, he was solid. Last week, he seemed to be pretty good with some excellent 4th quarter play. Ryan better do something because that's the kind of game that could shatter a young QB's confidence.
October 19th, 2009 at 10:57 am
I was surprised to see Ken Anderson here in mid-career, but shouldn't have been. Anderson was the Eck of football. Good young, great old, & mediocre in the middle of his career.
Dan Pastorini was the Bill Buckner. The closer you look, the worse he was.
Fun to see a list with a mix of the good, the bad & The Bears.
October 19th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Even as a Dolphin fan, I think people are being a bit hard on Sanchez. He was terrible against Buffalo. He was pretty bad against New Orleans too. But his other 4 games (including @ Miami), he has been pretty solid. Definitely better than the average rookie. He is going to have his growing pains as all young QBs do. Jets fans should feel lucky if they get 2 good games for every 1 bad game from Sanchez. By most standards, that is a decent rookie campaign.
That said, wow. You don't often see a guy single handedly throw away a game like that (Dilfer circa 1995). Tighten up. But for my sake, and the sake of the Dolphins, repeat that performance in 2 weeks.
(Do any of you Bucs superfans remember a very specific game where Dilfer tried as hard as he could to undo every good thing his teammates did? One specific play is burned into my brain wherein Dilfer, while falling out of bounds chucked up a prayer to the safety. I think it was 2nd down, and I believe they were leading or tied at the time. It was the most bone-headed play that I remember from my youth)
October 19th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
I found it. I Googled "Dilfer interception while falling out of bounds" Who knew? It's amazing the things you remember.
It linked me to an article by Dr. Z:
"Bucs fans can only hope Trent Dilfer is finally finished as Tampa Bay's quarterback. He single-handedly cost his team a victory against the Giants, whose offense amassed only four first downs and 107 yards en route to a 17-13 win. The New York defense ran back a Dilfer fumble and an interception for two touchdowns. Then came the most ridiculous Dilfer interception ever: He scrambled backward and across the field, and then, as he was falling out-of-bounds, threw the ball right to Giants cornerback Percy Ellsworth to set up a New York field goal with 2:50 left. How can coach Tony Dungy not bench Dilfer for good?"
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199909120tam.htm
October 20th, 2009 at 5:10 am
Hmm, that list of -100 adjusted yard QBs. Not good company to keep.
October 20th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Trent Dilfer has won more Super Bowls than Dan Marino. Dilfer for the HoF.
October 20th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Dilfer's defense led the NFL that year in Least Points Allowed, so he had an advantage over other teams. No wonder he could win 4 playoff games that year, have 3 TD Passes to only 1 Int, and have 3 games with a Passer Rating over 80. Oh, wait a minute: it appears that Marino's defense did exactly the same thing TWICE-in '83 and again in '98. Let's see how Dan played: he had 3 TD Passes also but had 5 Int's, only 1 game with a Rating over 80, and he led his team to only 1 win in those 2 years. I guess maybe Dan wouldn't have had much luck with that Ravens team either if he would have played like that!!
October 20th, 2009 at 5:53 pm
After thinking about this a little longer, I think another conclusion could be reached based on the facts presented in post #15: if Dilfer would have been the Dolphins QB in '83 and '98, he could probably have 2 more Rings.
October 21st, 2009 at 7:42 am
I think Dilfer by that point in his career was more humble than Marino ever was. That Ravens team also had an excellent running game, which the '83 Dolphins probably had as well.
Another bit of Dilfer trivia: I believe that he holds the record for most consecutive passes without a TD while with the Bucs.
October 21st, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Larry, you didn't mention Marino and '98, but here is some interesting trivia: Dan's 3 games against Denver in '98 and '99 were a microcosm of his career. Marino led his O to only 3 points (o TD's and 2 Int's) in his PO game in '98, but he had 6 TD's and 1 Int. and led his O to 31 points in each regular season game in '98 and '99. Dan could get it done against anybody in the regular season, but he was playoff game challenged for the majority of his career.
October 21st, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Oh come on, seriously?
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1998-R: Davis rushes for 29 yards and 0 TDs
1998-P: Davis rushes for 199 yards and 2 TDs
1999-R: Davis rushes for 61 yards and 0 TDs
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Totally Dan's fault. He obviously cracked, allowing 250 rushing yards in the playoffs like that after he single-handedly shut down Davis in the regular season. And surely Dilfer's sub-50% passing would have magically STOPPED Davis from running roughshod over Miami's defense. How could Dan possibly have NOT won that game with amazing receivers like O.J. McDuffie and Oronde Gadsen? And with such supreme rushers like Abdul-Jabbar and that future-hall-of-famer John Avery? Clearly they should have destroyed those superbowl winning patzers.
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Just for kicks, here's what Miami's rush defense allowed in all the playoff losses during Marino's tenure.
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151 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs
211 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs
255 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
154 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs
182 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
202 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
341 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
108 rushing yards, 0 rushing TDs
250 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
257 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
---
Yeah, Dan lost a lot of playoff games. And yeah, He threw a good number of interceptions in those losses. But I think placing all of the blame for Miami's playoff woes on Marino is stretching credulity.
October 22nd, 2009 at 4:48 am
I'm glad you are man enough to at least slightly mention the fact that Marino just happen to throw multiple Int's and not play like a great QB in the PO games. Most Marino fans usually just post the excuses why he lost. Are you denying that he was much better in the reg. season against the same defenses that he would fall on his face against in the PO's? Go back and watch the 3 Denver games again for starters. Then we'll go to some N.E., and Bills games also through the years.
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:51 am
There's been a few teams this year that have lost games even though they've run up over 200 yards, not just the Jets. I can't remember some of the others, but the Cowboys did the same thing against the Giants this year; ran up 251 yards and still lost.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:21 pm
The man started 240 regular season games and threw 252 interceptions. That's more than 1 per game, against average opponents. In the playoffs, his opponents were better than average, so you'd expect MORE than 1 INT/game in the playoffs over the long haul. It was the nature of the Dolphins offense. The Dolphins usually lost because they simply weren't a good enough team to win, not because Marino somehow cracked in the playoffs. At least, that's my opinion. And I shall say no more about Marino. No need for an argument.
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:41 am
OK, fair enough, and I'll also end it with this: I completely disagree with your conclusion that the Dolphins weren't a good enough team to win. We could go over year after year where the Dolphins were good enough to beat very good teams in the regular season only to lose early in the po's, and Dan played so much worse in a majority of those po losses that it has to be an issue.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Marino did have a lower QB rating in the playoffs than the regular season. But his drop in play is exaggerated. Most QB's ratings drop in the playoffs. That's the nature of the beast. Better competition, and worse weather.
Here are the drops in passer (or in some cases, improvements) rating for Manning, Brady, and some of Marino's Pro-Bowl contemporaries.
(I picked guys that played mostly the same time frame. These are the best 12 that I could think of off the top of my head.)
Brady -5.3
Manning -10.3
Aikman +6.7
Bledsoe -25.2 (ouch)
Brunell -17.9
Cunningham -7.2
Elway -0.2
Esiason -10.0
Favre -0.7
Kelly -12.1
Marino -9.3
Montana +2.3
Moon +4.0
Young -11.0
As you can see, only 3 of these 14 guys improved in the playoffs. Everyone says that Brady "takes it to another level," and Manning stinks it up in the playoffs, but their performance is pretty similar.
Manning's playoff rating: 85.0
Brady's playoff rating: 88.0
I also looked at some star QBs of recent years. Warner, McNabb, Culpepper, Brees, Rivers, Romo, Pennington, McNair, Hasselbeck, and Eli Manning. Only Warner improved (+5.2)
[I'm not trying to cherry pick, but these are the best QBs I can remember off the top of my head. If there are some good ones I missed, post it]
October 24th, 2009 at 9:34 am
Whether his drop in play (in the po's) was exaggerated or not, how can you deny that it was bad enough to prevent his team from winning a majority of his po games? I read this board for about a year before ever posting, and I read some interesting stats in that year. Like the ones concerning Dan and 75% of his championship games (and yes, they were accurate). I'm sure you know them, so I'll just say this: they weren't very good. Most of you still say: it doesn't matter if he could win the big one or not-oh really-when he has multiple chances and plays like that-IT MATTERS!! He blew it big time.