Preliminary SRS Teams of the Decade, Part II
Posted by Neil Paine on October 20, 2009
In the comments of yesterday's post about the best SRS teams of the 2000s, loyal PFR reader MattieShoes took issue with lumping together all incarnations of a team into one decade-long SRS calculation:
I don't think a decade-long SRS calculation is very good though -- Take the Raiders. They had some very good teams early on and some very bad teams more recently, so they average out to be a bad team for the decade. But now every team that lost to them in 2000-2002 is being adjusted as having lost to a BAD team, which isn't right.
I think it'd make far more sense to calculate yearly SRS and average those, since team strength is less likely to change drastically over the course of a season, and any errors caused by teams changing strength over the course of one season are limited to just that, one season.
I agree with that -- it probably won't impact the ratings much, but the method really does need to be changed to reflect the strength of each opponent when a team plays them, instead of using their decade-long strength rating. So here's the new deal: I calculated SRS for each season of the 2000s unto itself, and then took a weighted average of those SRS scores (by game played per season) to find the decade-long SRS rating. The results:
| Rank | Team | G | MOV | SOS | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NewEnglandPatriots | 167 | 6.76 | 0.92 | 7.69 |
| 2 | IndianapolisColts | 163 | 5.91 | 0.68 | 6.59 |
| 3 | PittsburghSteelers | 164 | 5.18 | 0.25 | 5.43 |
| 4 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 166 | 5.31 | -0.35 | 4.96 |
| 5 | BaltimoreRavens | 161 | 3.71 | 0.46 | 4.18 |
| 6 | SanDiegoChargers | 156 | 1.97 | 0.83 | 2.80 |
| 7 | GreenBayPackers | 157 | 2.98 | -0.63 | 2.35 |
| 8 | DenverBroncos | 155 | 1.92 | 0.38 | 2.30 |
| 9 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 153 | 1.09 | 0.26 | 1.35 |
| 10 | NewYorkGiants | 161 | 1.39 | -0.07 | 1.32 |
| 11 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 157 | 1.69 | -0.82 | 0.87 |
| 12 | NewYorkJets | 156 | -0.23 | 1.06 | 0.83 |
| 13 | MiamiDolphins | 153 | -0.15 | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| 14 | TennesseeTitans | 157 | -0.23 | 0.80 | 0.57 |
| 15 | KansasCityChiefs | 152 | 0.07 | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| 16 | ChicagoBears | 154 | -0.10 | -0.24 | -0.34 |
| 17 | MinnesotaVikings | 155 | 0.01 | -0.56 | -0.55 |
| 18 | SeattleSeahawks | 159 | 0.83 | -1.44 | -0.61 |
| 19 | NewOrleansSaints | 153 | 0.28 | -1.19 | -0.91 |
| 20 | DallasCowboys | 152 | -0.86 | -0.40 | -1.26 |
| 21 | CarolinaPanthers | 157 | -0.40 | -0.97 | -1.38 |
| 22 | OaklandRaiders | 157 | -2.44 | 0.83 | -1.61 |
| 23 | BuffaloBills | 150 | -2.58 | 0.79 | -1.80 |
| 24 | WashingtonRedskins | 153 | -1.59 | -0.25 | -1.85 |
| 25 | AtlantaFalcons | 154 | -2.17 | -0.41 | -2.58 |
| 26 | CincinnatiBengals | 151 | -3.57 | 0.72 | -2.85 |
| 27 | St.LouisRams | 157 | -1.96 | -1.43 | -3.38 |
| 28 | ClevelandBrowns | 151 | -5.36 | 1.07 | -4.29 |
| 29 | HoustonTexans | 118 | -5.04 | 0.51 | -4.53 |
| 30 | SanFrancisco49ers | 152 | -3.63 | -1.34 | -4.96 |
| 31 | ArizonaCardinals | 153 | -5.22 | -1.22 | -6.44 |
| 32 | DetroitLions | 150 | -7.21 | 0.53 | -6.68 |
As predicted, the impact of the change was small -- a few teams near the mean switched places here and there, but the overall theme of the rankings is the same as it was yesterday (New England, Indy, & Pittsburgh in one tier, Baltimore and Philly on a lesser level, followed by SD, GB, & DEN, then JAX & NYG, and then the rest of the pack). But it makes more sense to calculate the ratings season-by-season, for the reasons Mattie mentioned.
Oh, and here's every team's SRS score this decade:
| Year | Team | G | MOV | SOS | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | ArizonaCardinals | 16 | -14.56 | -0.16 | -14.72 |
| 2001 | ArizonaCardinals | 16 | -3.00 | -1.05 | -4.05 |
| 2002 | ArizonaCardinals | 16 | -9.69 | -0.71 | -10.40 |
| 2003 | ArizonaCardinals | 16 | -14.19 | 1.01 | -13.18 |
| 2004 | ArizonaCardinals | 16 | -2.38 | -2.68 | -5.06 |
| 2005 | ArizonaCardinals | 16 | -4.53 | -0.91 | -5.43 |
| 2006 | ArizonaCardinals | 16 | -4.69 | -2.43 | -7.12 |
| 2007 | ArizonaCardinals | 16 | 0.31 | -4.66 | -4.34 |
| 2008 | ArizonaCardinals | 20 | 1.38 | -0.36 | 1.03 |
| 2009 | ArizonaCardinals | 5 | 3.45 | 1.13 | 4.58 |
| 2000 | AtlantaFalcons | 16 | -10.06 | 0.92 | -9.14 |
| 2001 | AtlantaFalcons | 16 | -5.38 | 0.27 | -5.10 |
| 2002 | AtlantaFalcons | 18 | 5.50 | 0.56 | 6.06 |
| 2003 | AtlantaFalcons | 16 | -7.69 | 0.83 | -6.86 |
| 2004 | AtlantaFalcons | 18 | 0.89 | -2.53 | -1.64 |
| 2005 | AtlantaFalcons | 16 | 0.40 | -1.61 | -1.21 |
| 2006 | AtlantaFalcons | 16 | -2.25 | -1.38 | -3.63 |
| 2007 | AtlantaFalcons | 16 | -9.69 | -1.15 | -10.84 |
| 2008 | AtlantaFalcons | 17 | 3.67 | -0.89 | 2.78 |
| 2009 | AtlantaFalcons | 5 | 8.65 | 4.23 | 12.89 |
| 2000 | BaltimoreRavens | 20 | 12.16 | -0.37 | 11.78 |
| 2001 | BaltimoreRavens | 18 | 2.35 | 0.66 | 3.01 |
| 2002 | BaltimoreRavens | 16 | -2.38 | 0.20 | -2.17 |
| 2003 | BaltimoreRavens | 17 | 6.08 | -0.88 | 5.20 |
| 2004 | BaltimoreRavens | 16 | 3.06 | 3.02 | 6.08 |
| 2005 | BaltimoreRavens | 16 | -2.13 | 0.25 | -1.88 |
| 2006 | BaltimoreRavens | 17 | 8.35 | -0.16 | 8.19 |
| 2007 | BaltimoreRavens | 16 | -6.81 | -0.41 | -7.23 |
| 2008 | BaltimoreRavens | 19 | 8.42 | 1.58 | 10.01 |
| 2009 | BaltimoreRavens | 6 | 6.50 | 1.48 | 7.98 |
| 2000 | BuffaloBills | 16 | -2.19 | 1.16 | -1.03 |
| 2001 | BuffaloBills | 16 | -9.69 | -0.16 | -9.85 |
| 2002 | BuffaloBills | 16 | -1.13 | 0.77 | -0.35 |
| 2003 | BuffaloBills | 16 | -2.25 | 1.35 | -0.90 |
| 2004 | BuffaloBills | 16 | 6.94 | 1.03 | 7.97 |
| 2005 | BuffaloBills | 16 | -6.22 | 0.13 | -6.09 |
| 2006 | BuffaloBills | 16 | -0.69 | 2.89 | 2.20 |
| 2007 | BuffaloBills | 16 | -6.38 | 1.77 | -4.61 |
| 2008 | BuffaloBills | 16 | -0.38 | -2.95 | -3.32 |
| 2009 | BuffaloBills | 6 | -6.00 | 3.72 | -2.28 |
| 2000 | CarolinaPanthers | 16 | 0.00 | -1.74 | -1.74 |
| 2001 | CarolinaPanthers | 16 | -9.81 | 0.47 | -9.35 |
| 2002 | CarolinaPanthers | 16 | -2.75 | -0.03 | -2.78 |
| 2003 | CarolinaPanthers | 20 | 2.88 | -0.83 | 2.06 |
| 2004 | CarolinaPanthers | 16 | 1.00 | -1.98 | -0.98 |
| 2005 | CarolinaPanthers | 19 | 8.09 | -1.82 | 6.27 |
| 2006 | CarolinaPanthers | 16 | -2.19 | -1.09 | -3.28 |
| 2007 | CarolinaPanthers | 16 | -5.00 | -1.19 | -6.19 |
| 2008 | CarolinaPanthers | 17 | 3.69 | -0.11 | 3.58 |
| 2009 | CarolinaPanthers | 5 | -7.45 | -2.14 | -9.59 |
| 2000 | ChicagoBears | 16 | -8.69 | 1.40 | -7.29 |
| 2001 | ChicagoBears | 17 | 6.99 | -0.58 | 6.41 |
| 2002 | ChicagoBears | 16 | -6.13 | 1.11 | -5.01 |
| 2003 | ChicagoBears | 16 | -3.94 | -0.41 | -4.35 |
| 2004 | ChicagoBears | 16 | -6.25 | -2.13 | -8.38 |
| 2005 | ChicagoBears | 17 | 2.73 | -1.57 | 1.16 |
| 2006 | ChicagoBears | 19 | 9.78 | -2.08 | 7.71 |
| 2007 | ChicagoBears | 16 | -0.88 | 2.01 | 1.14 |
| 2008 | ChicagoBears | 16 | 1.56 | -0.13 | 1.44 |
| 2009 | ChicagoBears | 5 | 4.55 | 1.86 | 6.41 |
| 2000 | CincinnatiBengals | 16 | -10.88 | 1.13 | -9.74 |
| 2001 | CincinnatiBengals | 16 | -5.19 | 1.20 | -3.98 |
| 2002 | CincinnatiBengals | 16 | -11.06 | 0.51 | -10.55 |
| 2003 | CincinnatiBengals | 16 | -2.38 | -0.83 | -3.20 |
| 2004 | CincinnatiBengals | 16 | 0.13 | 2.43 | 2.56 |
| 2005 | CincinnatiBengals | 17 | 3.14 | 0.09 | 3.23 |
| 2006 | CincinnatiBengals | 16 | 2.63 | 1.00 | 3.63 |
| 2007 | CincinnatiBengals | 16 | -0.31 | -2.55 | -2.86 |
| 2008 | CincinnatiBengals | 16 | -10.00 | 2.91 | -7.09 |
| 2009 | CincinnatiBengals | 6 | 0.00 | 2.41 | 2.41 |
| 2000 | ClevelandBrowns | 16 | -16.13 | 2.39 | -13.73 |
| 2001 | ClevelandBrowns | 16 | -2.13 | 0.91 | -1.22 |
| 2002 | ClevelandBrowns | 17 | 1.38 | -0.09 | 1.29 |
| 2003 | ClevelandBrowns | 16 | -4.25 | 0.62 | -3.63 |
| 2004 | ClevelandBrowns | 16 | -7.13 | 3.66 | -3.47 |
| 2005 | ClevelandBrowns | 16 | -4.31 | 0.10 | -4.21 |
| 2006 | ClevelandBrowns | 16 | -7.38 | 0.92 | -6.46 |
| 2007 | ClevelandBrowns | 16 | 1.25 | -2.79 | -1.54 |
| 2008 | ClevelandBrowns | 16 | -7.38 | 2.61 | -4.76 |
| 2009 | ClevelandBrowns | 6 | -12.26 | 4.71 | -7.55 |
| 2000 | DallasCowboys | 16 | -4.19 | 0.06 | -4.13 |
| 2001 | DallasCowboys | 16 | -5.75 | -0.15 | -5.90 |
| 2002 | DallasCowboys | 16 | -7.00 | -2.18 | -9.18 |
| 2003 | DallasCowboys | 17 | 0.80 | -1.87 | -1.06 |
| 2004 | DallasCowboys | 16 | -7.00 | -0.88 | -7.88 |
| 2005 | DallasCowboys | 16 | 1.06 | 1.27 | 2.34 |
| 2006 | DallasCowboys | 17 | 4.41 | -1.29 | 3.13 |
| 2007 | DallasCowboys | 17 | 7.24 | 1.37 | 8.61 |
| 2008 | DallasCowboys | 16 | -0.19 | 0.96 | 0.77 |
| 2009 | DallasCowboys | 5 | 5.35 | -3.18 | 2.16 |
| 2000 | DenverBroncos | 17 | 5.95 | -1.78 | 4.17 |
| 2001 | DenverBroncos | 16 | 0.06 | -0.44 | -0.37 |
| 2002 | DenverBroncos | 16 | 3.00 | 1.42 | 4.42 |
| 2003 | DenverBroncos | 17 | 3.10 | 0.34 | 3.44 |
| 2004 | DenverBroncos | 17 | 3.22 | 1.37 | 4.59 |
| 2005 | DenverBroncos | 18 | 7.05 | 2.24 | 9.29 |
| 2006 | DenverBroncos | 16 | 0.88 | 0.24 | 1.11 |
| 2007 | DenverBroncos | 16 | -5.56 | 1.44 | -4.13 |
| 2008 | DenverBroncos | 16 | -4.88 | -1.47 | -6.35 |
| 2009 | DenverBroncos | 6 | 11.17 | 0.01 | 11.18 |
| 2000 | DetroitLions | 16 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| 2001 | DetroitLions | 16 | -9.63 | 1.66 | -7.96 |
| 2002 | DetroitLions | 16 | -9.06 | 0.14 | -8.92 |
| 2003 | DetroitLions | 16 | -6.81 | 0.26 | -6.55 |
| 2004 | DetroitLions | 16 | -3.38 | -1.89 | -5.26 |
| 2005 | DetroitLions | 16 | -5.91 | -0.83 | -6.74 |
| 2006 | DetroitLions | 16 | -5.81 | -0.66 | -6.48 |
| 2007 | DetroitLions | 16 | -6.13 | 2.43 | -3.69 |
| 2008 | DetroitLions | 16 | -15.56 | 1.76 | -13.81 |
| 2009 | DetroitLions | 6 | -14.17 | 4.56 | -9.60 |
| 2000 | GreenBayPackers | 16 | 1.88 | -0.39 | 1.48 |
| 2001 | GreenBayPackers | 18 | 5.89 | -0.52 | 5.37 |
| 2002 | GreenBayPackers | 17 | 2.79 | -0.07 | 2.73 |
| 2003 | GreenBayPackers | 18 | 7.67 | -0.61 | 7.05 |
| 2004 | GreenBayPackers | 17 | 1.61 | -2.43 | -0.82 |
| 2005 | GreenBayPackers | 16 | -2.88 | -0.68 | -3.56 |
| 2006 | GreenBayPackers | 16 | -4.06 | -0.52 | -4.59 |
| 2007 | GreenBayPackers | 18 | 8.73 | 0.28 | 9.01 |
| 2008 | GreenBayPackers | 16 | 2.44 | -0.24 | 2.19 |
| 2009 | GreenBayPackers | 5 | 6.85 | -2.29 | 4.57 |
| 2002 | HoustonTexans | 16 | -8.94 | -1.26 | -10.20 |
| 2003 | HoustonTexans | 16 | -7.81 | 2.47 | -5.34 |
| 2004 | HoustonTexans | 16 | -1.88 | 0.94 | -0.93 |
| 2005 | HoustonTexans | 16 | -10.69 | 0.25 | -10.44 |
| 2006 | HoustonTexans | 16 | -6.19 | 1.84 | -4.35 |
| 2007 | HoustonTexans | 16 | -0.31 | 0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2008 | HoustonTexans | 16 | -1.75 | 0.87 | -0.88 |
| 2009 | HoustonTexans | 6 | 1.00 | -3.57 | -2.57 |
| 2000 | IndianapolisColts | 17 | 5.89 | 0.88 | 6.78 |
| 2001 | IndianapolisColts | 16 | -4.56 | 0.55 | -4.01 |
| 2002 | IndianapolisColts | 17 | -0.15 | -1.28 | -1.42 |
| 2003 | IndianapolisColts | 19 | 7.51 | 1.31 | 8.82 |
| 2004 | IndianapolisColts | 18 | 9.94 | 1.41 | 11.35 |
| 2005 | IndianapolisColts | 17 | 10.91 | -0.79 | 10.12 |
| 2006 | IndianapolisColts | 20 | 5.30 | 2.64 | 7.94 |
| 2007 | IndianapolisColts | 17 | 10.65 | 0.46 | 11.11 |
| 2008 | IndianapolisColts | 17 | 4.43 | 1.32 | 5.75 |
| 2009 | IndianapolisColts | 5 | 13.75 | -2.17 | 11.58 |
| 2000 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 16 | 2.50 | -0.48 | 2.02 |
| 2001 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 16 | 0.50 | -0.13 | 0.37 |
| 2002 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 16 | 0.81 | -1.71 | -0.89 |
| 2003 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 16 | -3.44 | 1.65 | -1.79 |
| 2004 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 16 | -1.19 | 1.58 | 0.39 |
| 2005 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 17 | 4.15 | -0.98 | 3.18 |
| 2006 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 16 | 6.06 | 1.56 | 7.62 |
| 2007 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 18 | 5.77 | 1.06 | 6.83 |
| 2008 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 16 | -4.06 | 1.09 | -2.97 |
| 2009 | JacksonvilleJaguars | 6 | -4.50 | -3.17 | -7.67 |
| 2000 | KansasCityChiefs | 16 | 0.06 | -0.02 | 0.04 |
| 2001 | KansasCityChiefs | 16 | -1.50 | 0.45 | -1.05 |
| 2002 | KansasCityChiefs | 16 | 4.25 | 1.51 | 5.76 |
| 2003 | KansasCityChiefs | 17 | 8.31 | -1.38 | 6.93 |
| 2004 | KansasCityChiefs | 16 | 3.00 | 1.93 | 4.93 |
| 2005 | KansasCityChiefs | 16 | 4.88 | 1.46 | 6.33 |
| 2006 | KansasCityChiefs | 17 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| 2007 | KansasCityChiefs | 16 | -6.81 | 1.18 | -5.63 |
| 2008 | KansasCityChiefs | 16 | -9.31 | -0.48 | -9.79 |
| 2009 | KansasCityChiefs | 6 | -7.67 | -0.86 | -8.53 |
| 2000 | MiamiDolphins | 18 | 4.22 | 1.28 | 5.50 |
| 2001 | MiamiDolphins | 17 | 2.05 | -0.57 | 1.48 |
| 2002 | MiamiDolphins | 16 | 4.81 | 1.07 | 5.88 |
| 2003 | MiamiDolphins | 16 | 2.90 | 0.44 | 3.34 |
| 2004 | MiamiDolphins | 16 | -4.94 | 2.58 | -2.36 |
| 2005 | MiamiDolphins | 16 | 0.06 | -0.84 | -0.78 |
| 2006 | MiamiDolphins | 16 | -1.44 | 2.16 | 0.72 |
| 2007 | MiamiDolphins | 16 | -10.44 | 1.71 | -8.73 |
| 2008 | MiamiDolphins | 17 | 0.45 | -1.46 | -1.01 |
| 2009 | MiamiDolphins | 5 | 0.65 | 5.47 | 6.12 |
| 2000 | MinnesotaVikings | 18 | 0.17 | -0.38 | -0.21 |
| 2001 | MinnesotaVikings | 16 | -6.25 | 0.87 | -5.38 |
| 2002 | MinnesotaVikings | 16 | -3.25 | 0.50 | -2.75 |
| 2003 | MinnesotaVikings | 16 | 3.94 | -1.85 | 2.09 |
| 2004 | MinnesotaVikings | 18 | 0.91 | -2.00 | -1.10 |
| 2005 | MinnesotaVikings | 16 | -2.38 | -1.10 | -3.48 |
| 2006 | MinnesotaVikings | 16 | -2.81 | -1.39 | -4.20 |
| 2007 | MinnesotaVikings | 16 | 3.38 | 0.32 | 3.70 |
| 2008 | MinnesotaVikings | 17 | 1.86 | 1.08 | 2.95 |
| 2009 | MinnesotaVikings | 6 | 11.33 | -3.27 | 8.07 |
| 2000 | NewEnglandPatriots | 16 | -3.88 | 0.45 | -3.42 |
| 2001 | NewEnglandPatriots | 19 | 5.89 | -0.64 | 5.26 |
| 2002 | NewEnglandPatriots | 16 | 2.19 | 1.74 | 3.93 |
| 2003 | NewEnglandPatriots | 19 | 6.25 | 1.03 | 7.27 |
| 2004 | NewEnglandPatriots | 19 | 11.11 | 2.70 | 13.80 |
| 2005 | NewEnglandPatriots | 18 | 2.89 | 1.22 | 4.11 |
| 2006 | NewEnglandPatriots | 19 | 8.90 | 1.85 | 10.75 |
| 2007 | NewEnglandPatriots | 19 | 17.16 | 1.13 | 18.29 |
| 2008 | NewEnglandPatriots | 16 | 6.31 | -2.39 | 3.92 |
| 2009 | NewEnglandPatriots | 6 | 11.09 | 3.41 | 14.50 |
| 2000 | NewOrleansSaints | 18 | 1.89 | -2.26 | -0.37 |
| 2001 | NewOrleansSaints | 16 | -4.75 | -0.42 | -5.17 |
| 2002 | NewOrleansSaints | 16 | 2.75 | 0.12 | 2.87 |
| 2003 | NewOrleansSaints | 16 | 0.88 | -0.54 | 0.33 |
| 2004 | NewOrleansSaints | 16 | -3.56 | -2.27 | -5.84 |
| 2005 | NewOrleansSaints | 16 | -9.07 | -0.92 | -9.99 |
| 2006 | NewOrleansSaints | 18 | 3.83 | -1.31 | 2.52 |
| 2007 | NewOrleansSaints | 16 | -0.56 | -2.32 | -2.89 |
| 2008 | NewOrleansSaints | 16 | 4.52 | -1.11 | 3.41 |
| 2009 | NewOrleansSaints | 5 | 19.25 | 0.30 | 19.55 |
| 2000 | NewYorkGiants | 19 | 5.25 | -1.23 | 4.01 |
| 2001 | NewYorkGiants | 16 | -1.69 | 0.05 | -1.64 |
| 2002 | NewYorkGiants | 17 | 2.50 | -2.30 | 0.20 |
| 2003 | NewYorkGiants | 16 | -9.00 | 0.47 | -8.53 |
| 2004 | NewYorkGiants | 16 | -2.75 | -1.19 | -3.94 |
| 2005 | NewYorkGiants | 17 | 4.37 | 0.50 | 4.87 |
| 2006 | NewYorkGiants | 17 | -0.53 | 0.51 | -0.02 |
| 2007 | NewYorkGiants | 20 | 2.40 | 2.88 | 5.27 |
| 2008 | NewYorkGiants | 17 | 6.98 | 0.76 | 7.74 |
| 2009 | NewYorkGiants | 6 | 10.74 | -4.29 | 6.45 |
| 2000 | NewYorkJets | 16 | 0.00 | 2.87 | 2.87 |
| 2001 | NewYorkJets | 17 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| 2002 | NewYorkJets | 18 | 2.44 | 1.82 | 4.26 |
| 2003 | NewYorkJets | 16 | -1.00 | 0.54 | -0.46 |
| 2004 | NewYorkJets | 18 | 4.30 | 2.61 | 6.90 |
| 2005 | NewYorkJets | 16 | -7.19 | 0.71 | -6.48 |
| 2006 | NewYorkJets | 17 | 0.06 | 1.42 | 1.48 |
| 2007 | NewYorkJets | 16 | -5.44 | 1.23 | -4.21 |
| 2008 | NewYorkJets | 16 | 3.06 | -2.83 | 0.23 |
| 2009 | NewYorkJets | 6 | 1.67 | 3.48 | 5.15 |
| 2000 | OaklandRaiders | 18 | 10.43 | -0.83 | 9.60 |
| 2001 | OaklandRaiders | 18 | 4.61 | -0.47 | 4.14 |
| 2002 | OaklandRaiders | 19 | 7.95 | 1.89 | 9.84 |
| 2003 | OaklandRaiders | 16 | -6.81 | 0.46 | -6.35 |
| 2004 | OaklandRaiders | 16 | -7.63 | 2.91 | -4.71 |
| 2005 | OaklandRaiders | 16 | -5.81 | 2.37 | -3.45 |
| 2006 | OaklandRaiders | 16 | -10.25 | 0.27 | -9.98 |
| 2007 | OaklandRaiders | 16 | -7.19 | 1.05 | -6.14 |
| 2008 | OaklandRaiders | 16 | -7.81 | -0.21 | -8.02 |
| 2009 | OaklandRaiders | 6 | -12.83 | 1.38 | -11.45 |
| 2000 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 18 | 6.33 | -2.38 | 3.96 |
| 2001 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 19 | 8.85 | 0.52 | 9.37 |
| 2002 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 18 | 9.22 | -1.74 | 7.48 |
| 2003 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 18 | 3.98 | -0.28 | 3.70 |
| 2004 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 19 | 7.77 | -1.54 | 6.23 |
| 2005 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 16 | -4.88 | 1.69 | -3.18 |
| 2006 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 18 | 3.89 | -0.90 | 2.99 |
| 2007 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 16 | 2.25 | 2.74 | 4.99 |
| 2008 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 19 | 7.95 | 0.63 | 8.58 |
| 2009 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 5 | 6.85 | -5.09 | 1.76 |
| 2000 | PittsburghSteelers | 16 | 4.13 | 0.69 | 4.82 |
| 2001 | PittsburghSteelers | 18 | 8.09 | -1.22 | 6.87 |
| 2002 | PittsburghSteelers | 18 | 2.50 | -0.03 | 2.47 |
| 2003 | PittsburghSteelers | 16 | -1.69 | -0.17 | -1.86 |
| 2004 | PittsburghSteelers | 18 | 5.81 | 2.44 | 8.26 |
| 2005 | PittsburghSteelers | 20 | 9.34 | 1.08 | 10.42 |
| 2006 | PittsburghSteelers | 16 | 2.38 | 0.46 | 2.83 |
| 2007 | PittsburghSteelers | 17 | 7.00 | -2.41 | 4.59 |
| 2008 | PittsburghSteelers | 19 | 7.54 | 2.41 | 9.95 |
| 2009 | PittsburghSteelers | 6 | 4.67 | -3.80 | 0.87 |
| 2000 | SanDiegoChargers | 16 | -10.69 | 2.23 | -8.45 |
| 2001 | SanDiegoChargers | 16 | 0.69 | -0.76 | -0.07 |
| 2002 | SanDiegoChargers | 16 | -2.13 | 1.04 | -1.08 |
| 2003 | SanDiegoChargers | 16 | -7.77 | 0.27 | -7.50 |
| 2004 | SanDiegoChargers | 17 | 7.49 | 0.86 | 8.35 |
| 2005 | SanDiegoChargers | 16 | 6.63 | 2.80 | 9.43 |
| 2006 | SanDiegoChargers | 17 | 10.88 | -1.19 | 9.69 |
| 2007 | SanDiegoChargers | 19 | 7.21 | 1.96 | 9.17 |
| 2008 | SanDiegoChargers | 18 | 4.70 | -0.32 | 4.38 |
| 2009 | SanDiegoChargers | 5 | -2.95 | 2.94 | -0.01 |
| 2000 | SanFrancisco49ers | 16 | -2.13 | -2.32 | -4.45 |
| 2001 | SanFrancisco49ers | 17 | 7.01 | -1.03 | 5.98 |
| 2002 | SanFrancisco49ers | 18 | -0.44 | -0.09 | -0.53 |
| 2003 | SanFrancisco49ers | 16 | 2.94 | -0.62 | 2.32 |
| 2004 | SanFrancisco49ers | 16 | -12.06 | -1.75 | -13.81 |
| 2005 | SanFrancisco49ers | 16 | -12.04 | -0.04 | -12.08 |
| 2006 | SanFrancisco49ers | 16 | -7.13 | -1.83 | -8.95 |
| 2007 | SanFrancisco49ers | 16 | -9.06 | -3.08 | -12.15 |
| 2008 | SanFrancisco49ers | 16 | -2.63 | -2.31 | -4.94 |
| 2009 | SanFrancisco49ers | 5 | 2.25 | 1.48 | 3.73 |
| 2000 | SeattleSeahawks | 16 | -5.31 | 0.94 | -4.37 |
| 2001 | SeattleSeahawks | 16 | -1.44 | -0.35 | -1.79 |
| 2002 | SeattleSeahawks | 16 | -0.88 | -0.86 | -1.73 |
| 2003 | SeattleSeahawks | 17 | 4.39 | -0.96 | 3.43 |
| 2004 | SeattleSeahawks | 17 | -0.69 | -3.06 | -3.75 |
| 2005 | SeattleSeahawks | 19 | 10.15 | -1.34 | 8.81 |
| 2006 | SeattleSeahawks | 18 | -0.44 | -2.47 | -2.92 |
| 2007 | SeattleSeahawks | 18 | 5.61 | -3.78 | 1.83 |
| 2008 | SeattleSeahawks | 16 | -6.13 | -1.14 | -7.27 |
| 2009 | SeattleSeahawks | 6 | 0.59 | -0.02 | 0.57 |
| 2000 | St.LouisRams | 17 | 4.07 | -1.75 | 2.32 |
| 2001 | St.LouisRams | 19 | 13.46 | -0.11 | 13.35 |
| 2002 | St.LouisRams | 16 | -3.31 | -0.38 | -3.69 |
| 2003 | St.LouisRams | 17 | 6.43 | -1.97 | 4.46 |
| 2004 | St.LouisRams | 18 | -5.04 | -1.69 | -6.72 |
| 2005 | St.LouisRams | 16 | -4.13 | -1.67 | -5.80 |
| 2006 | St.LouisRams | 16 | -0.88 | -3.25 | -4.12 |
| 2007 | St.LouisRams | 16 | -10.94 | -2.39 | -13.33 |
| 2008 | St.LouisRams | 16 | -14.56 | -0.18 | -14.74 |
| 2009 | St.LouisRams | 6 | -18.26 | -0.47 | -18.72 |
| 2000 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 17 | 6.13 | -0.75 | 5.37 |
| 2001 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 17 | 1.42 | 1.25 | 2.67 |
| 2002 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 19 | 11.53 | 0.52 | 12.05 |
| 2003 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 16 | 2.31 | -0.13 | 2.18 |
| 2004 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 16 | -0.19 | -2.81 | -3.00 |
| 2005 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 17 | 0.91 | -1.97 | -1.06 |
| 2006 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 16 | -8.88 | 0.38 | -8.50 |
| 2007 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 17 | 3.00 | -2.65 | 0.35 |
| 2008 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 16 | 2.38 | -0.87 | 1.50 |
| 2009 | TampaBayBuccaneers | 6 | -13.17 | -2.26 | -15.43 |
| 2000 | TennesseeTitans | 17 | 8.11 | 0.38 | 8.49 |
| 2001 | TennesseeTitans | 16 | -3.25 | 0.65 | -2.60 |
| 2002 | TennesseeTitans | 18 | 1.61 | -0.81 | 0.80 |
| 2003 | TennesseeTitans | 18 | 6.57 | 0.81 | 7.39 |
| 2004 | TennesseeTitans | 16 | -5.94 | 1.21 | -4.72 |
| 2005 | TennesseeTitans | 16 | -7.63 | -0.34 | -7.97 |
| 2006 | TennesseeTitans | 16 | -4.75 | 3.58 | -1.17 |
| 2007 | TennesseeTitans | 17 | -0.24 | 0.65 | 0.41 |
| 2008 | TennesseeTitans | 17 | 7.98 | 0.30 | 8.28 |
| 2009 | TennesseeTitans | 6 | -18.09 | 3.64 | -14.45 |
| 2000 | WashingtonRedskins | 16 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 1.48 |
| 2001 | WashingtonRedskins | 16 | -2.94 | -0.65 | -3.59 |
| 2002 | WashingtonRedskins | 16 | -3.63 | -1.59 | -5.22 |
| 2003 | WashingtonRedskins | 16 | -5.31 | -0.36 | -5.67 |
| 2004 | WashingtonRedskins | 16 | -1.56 | -1.88 | -3.44 |
| 2005 | WashingtonRedskins | 18 | 3.90 | 1.28 | 5.18 |
| 2006 | WashingtonRedskins | 16 | -4.31 | 0.07 | -4.25 |
| 2007 | WashingtonRedskins | 17 | 0.35 | 2.73 | 3.08 |
| 2008 | WashingtonRedskins | 16 | -1.94 | 0.37 | -1.56 |
| 2009 | WashingtonRedskins | 6 | -2.83 | -9.24 | -12.07 |
October 20th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Lots of stories there, but for some reason I'm hearing PuffyAmiYumi singing Go Team Titans!
Long, long ago I used to keep an Elo-type rating for football teams. The year to year changes made it useless, even though they were generally much smaller than whatever collapse has infected Tennessee.
Looking at this, there visually seems to be regression towards the mean, especially with the mediocre teams.
October 20th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Amazing to see the 2007 Giants so far down the chart, even with their playoff wins figured in. They're the 7th best team, SRS-wise, of their season. And how about that 1.03 SRS for the 2008 Cardinals?
October 20th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
1. AFC East (1.86)
2. AFC West (1.01)
3. AFC South (1.00)
4. NFC East (0.79)
5. AFC North (0.62)
6. NFC South (-1.00)
7. NFC North (-1.31)
8. NFC West (-3.85)
NFC West has been *spectacularly* bad.
Every AFC team has a positive SOS
Every NFC team has a negative SOS except the Lions.
October 20th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
The 09 Saints through 5 games have a higher SRS than the 07 Patriots (19.55 vs 18.29) Obviously it's not likely to stay that way, but impressive anyway.
The 0-16 Lions from last year rank higher than the 2004 49ers (2-14), the 2000 Cardinals (3-13), and the 2008 Rams (2-14).
October 26th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
And nothing comes even close to ranking as bad as this year's Rams so far.
October 26th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
I wonder how the Rams compare with other teams by this point in the season... I imagine the results by game 7 would be much more variable compared to the end of the season.
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There's an idea for a posting... Not measuring how historically bad the Rams are, but what teams changed the most from one part of a season to another... Split a season into two parts, both with a reasonable number of games (5?), do SRS on each part and note the largest swings....
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I'm curious how the 76 Steelers would show up... 1-4, then 9-0 with 5 shutouts.