Similarity scores for 2009 teams, part II
Posted by Jason Lisk on October 24, 2009
This is the second part of the similarity scores; the methodology and the teams that have won 3 or more games and played six games are in part I. Here, we look at the ten teams with a losing record through six games. Next week, I'll close with the teams who are playing their sixth game this weekend.
One of the losing teams stands out as the most likely to make a run and turn it around. All but one of the Seahawks' comparables won at least five of their final ten games. The rest, well, it's not particular pretty. The most amazing is the Titans' collapse. They don't really have any similar teams (their most similar team has a score of only 608). I guess that's a good thing, because the bad news is that on the Titans' list, both the 1989 Cowboys and 2000 Chargers appear, and those teams that went 1-15. The worse news is that those weren't even the worst teams on the list, as the 2008 Lions also appear.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
weighted wins (last 10): 5.91
playoff chances: 27%
============================================================== 911 GNB 2000 2-4 7-3 896 CLE 1983 2-4 7-3 857 RAI 1996 2-4 5-5 856 CRD 1993 2-4 5-5 848 ATL 1983 2-4 5-5 845 PHI 2007 2-4 6-4 840 DET 1983 2-4 7-3 834 CLE 1980 3-3 8-2 831 CRD 2004 2-4 4-6 826 CAR 2000 2-4 5-5 ==============================================================
OAKLAND RAIDERS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.15
playoff chances: 7%
============================================================== 763 TAM 1996 1-5 5-5 755 SFO 2007 2-4 3-7 744 NOR 1981 1-5 3-7 712 NEW 1988 2-4 7-3 683 CRD 1990 2-4 3-7 655 PHI 1986 2-4 3-6-1 650 NYG 1996 2-4 4-6 645 CRD 1994 2-4 6-4 641 SDG 1988 2-4 4-6 638 GNB 1980 2-3-1 3-7 ==============================================================
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.48
playoff chances: 5%
============================================================== 838 KAN 1988 1-4-1 3-7 838 WAS 2004 2-4 4-6 818 RAV 1998 2-4 4-6 812 CLE 2005 2-4 4-6 812 RAV 2005 2-4 4-6 807 PHI 1985 2-4 5-5 805 RAI 1992 2-4 5-5 789 CLE 1991 2-4 4-6 779 CHI 1980 2-4 5-5 779 CLE 1988 3-3 7-3 ==============================================================
BUFFALO BILLS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.00
playoff chances: 2%
============================================================== 888 CAR 1997 2-4 5-5 847 TAM 2006 2-4 2-7 824 RAM 1992 2-4 4-6 819 BUF 2006 2-4 5-5 817 CRD 1999 2-4 4-6 815 KAN 1989 2-4 6-3-1 813 CLE 2000 2-4 1-9 806 PHI 1984 2-4 4-5-1 799 NYG 1995 2-4 3-7 798 CIN 2004 2-4 6-4 ==============================================================
CLEVELAND BROWNS
weighted wins (last 10): 3.78
playoff chances: 1%
============================================================== 891 PHI 1998 1-5 2-8 806 TAM 1996 1-5 5-5 754 NOR 1981 1-5 3-7 745 TAM 1993 1-5 4-6 745 HTX 2002 1-5 3-7 743 ATL 1999 1-5 4-6 732 OTI 2006 1-5 7-3 725 PIT 1986 1-5 5-5 707 KAN 2008 1-5 1-9 702 CHI 2000 1-5 4-6 ==============================================================
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
weighted wins (last 10): 3.66
playoff chances: 1%
============================================================== 923 GNB 1984 1-5 7-3 849 NYJ 2007 1-5 3-7 830 CAR 1995 1-5 6-4 821 TAM 1986 1-5 1-9 811 NYJ 1980 1-5 3-7 804 ATL 1997 1-5 6-4 785 WAS 1993 1-5 3-7 779 DET 2003 1-5 4-6 777 CAR 2001 1-5 0-10 773 CIN 1992 2-4 3-7 ==============================================================
DETROIT LIONS
weighted wins (last 10): 2.99
playoff chances: 1%
============================================================== 889 CLT 1981 1-5 1-9 838 CRD 1983 1-5 7-2-1 807 ATL 2003 1-5 4-6 784 NYG 1980 1-5 3-7 753 CHI 2003 1-5 6-4 739 DET 2008 0-6 0-10 733 NWE 1990 1-5 0-10 732 SDG 2000 0-6 1-9 709 RAM 1996 1-5 5-5 694 NYJ 1995 1-5 2-8 ==============================================================
SAINT LOUIS RAMS
weighted wins (last 10): 2.98
playoff chances: 0%
============================================================== 821 CLT 1986 0-6 3-7 766 CIN 2002 0-6 2-8 705 DAL 1989 0-6 1-9 688 NWE 1992 0-6 2-8 682 OTI 1984 0-6 3-7 678 CHI 1997 0-6 4-6 675 WAS 2001 1-5 7-3 660 CIN 2000 0-6 4-6 655 HTX 2005 0-6 2-8 647 CLE 1999 0-6 2-8 ==============================================================
TENNESSEE TITANS
weighted wins (last 10): 2.72
playoff chances: 0%
============================================================== 608 CHI 1997 0-6 4-6 588 SFO 2005 1-5 3-7 580 HTX 2005 0-6 2-8 512 WAS 1998 0-6 6-4 511 DET 2008 0-6 0-10 509 CIN 1991 0-6 3-7 496 SDG 2000 0-6 1-9 477 DAL 1989 0-6 1-9 464 CIN 1999 1-5 3-7 464 ATL 1985 0-6 4-6 ==============================================================
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
weighted wins (last 10): 2.69
playoff chances: 0%
============================================================== 872 NOR 1980 0-6 1-9 825 CIN 1991 0-6 3-7 823 CIN 1997 1-5 6-4 812 CLT 1997 0-6 3-7 805 ATL 1996 0-6 3-7 801 DET 2001 0-6 2-8 798 NYJ 1996 0-6 1-9 796 NWE 1990 1-5 0-10 795 CIN 1979 0-6 4-6 777 NWE 1993 1-5 4-6 ==============================================================
October 25th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Cool stuff!
What strikes me is the Titans: what makes them so unusual? Their highest similarity score is lower than the lowest similarity score listed for any other team.
Something about them must be really unusual that they don't have any closer similarities, and I'm wondering what it is.
October 25th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
My guess on the Titans is the astronomical number of passing yards given up (on pace for almost 5,000 net) combined with the fact they have rushed for 1,000 already, which most 0-6 teams do not do.
October 29th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
How much of Tennessee's score is influenced by the shellacking in New England? It seems to me that there should be some sort of cap on how much any single game can influence a team's similarity score. At the very least there should be some sort of diminishing return for outliers.
October 30th, 2009 at 8:45 am
Patrick, I don't have the file with me. I can try to run it using first 5 games, with those results pro rated for the 6th game, to see what Tennessee would look like if we assumed they played like they had the previous 5.
My guess is it wouldn't change a whole lot though, maybe another team or two gets on the list that got to 4-12.
That 59 point loss was larger than any of their comparables. However, if we reduced it to a 39 point loss, they would still be exactly average with the other 10 teams on point differential through 6 games. With the 59 point loss, they have the second largest overall differential of the group.