PI Finds: Manning’s 2009 Topped Only By 2004
Posted by Neil Paine on October 26, 2009
In Peyton Manning's impressive career, his 2004 campaign stands out above all the rest -- that year, he broke Dan Marino's 20-year-old record for TD passes in a season (a record since eclipsed by Tom Brady), and led the league in yards per attempt, passer rating, and net yards (pass yards minus sacks) per dropback. According to Chase's yards above average metric, Manning's 2004 ranks as the 2nd-best season by a quarterback in NFL history.
Why am I telling you all of this? Because Manning '09 is nipping at Manning '04's heels. Following the Colts' 42-6 demolition of the Rams (a game in which he could have had his 6th straight 300-yard game to open the season had the Colts not called off the passing attack for sportsmanship reasons), Manning's current 6-game numbers trail only his 2004 stats in terms of sheer aerial greatness:
| Rk | Player | Age | Year | Tm | W | L | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | AY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peyton Manning | 28 | 2004 | CLT | 4 | 2 | 131 | 196 | 66.8% | 1689 | 17 | 3 | 9.66 |
| 2 | Peyton Manning | 33 | 2009 | CLT | 6 | 0 | 156 | 215 | 72.6% | 1880 | 15 | 4 | 9.30 |
| 3 | Peyton Manning | 30 | 2006 | CLT | 6 | 0 | 131 | 206 | 63.6% | 1620 | 12 | 2 | 8.59 |
| 4 | Peyton Manning | 31 | 2007 | CLT | 6 | 0 | 138 | 202 | 68.3% | 1578 | 11 | 3 | 8.23 |
| 5 | Peyton Manning | 24 | 2000 | CLT | 4 | 2 | 145 | 227 | 63.9% | 1882 | 12 | 7 | 7.96 |
| 6 | Peyton Manning | 27 | 2003 | CLT | 5 | 1 | 139 | 203 | 68.5% | 1593 | 12 | 5 | 7.92 |
| 7 | Peyton Manning | 23 | 1999 | CLT | 4 | 2 | 123 | 209 | 58.9% | 1679 | 13 | 8 | 7.56 |
| 8 | Peyton Manning | 29 | 2005 | CLT | 6 | 0 | 118 | 177 | 66.7% | 1314 | 9 | 4 | 7.42 |
| 9 | Peyton Manning | 25 | 2001 | CLT | 3 | 3 | 132 | 200 | 66.0% | 1625 | 12 | 9 | 7.30 |
| 10 | Peyton Manning | 26 | 2002 | CLT | 4 | 2 | 149 | 226 | 65.9% | 1584 | 10 | 8 | 6.30 |
| 11 | Peyton Manning | 32 | 2008 | CLT | 3 | 3 | 136 | 224 | 60.7% | 1531 | 8 | 7 | 6.14 |
| 12 | Peyton Manning | 22 | 1998 | CLT | 1 | 5 | 113 | 210 | 53.8% | 1364 | 6 | 14 | 4.07 |
In terms of career 6-game starts, Manning's '09 ranks 1st in completion %, 1st in Y/A, 2nd in yards, 2nd in TD, 2nd in passer rating, and 2nd in adjusted YPA. What's even more amazing is that this a 33-year-old Manning we're seeing carve up defenses, not a 28-year-old one. It's going to be entertaining to watch Manning attack opponents -- and his 2004 numbers -- over the course of this season.
October 26th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Where can I see how the rest of the league stacks up in 2009 in AY/A?
October 26th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Here's the 2009 leaderboard in AY/A:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/1bcgX
Probably more informative is adjusted net YPA:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/7WMXj
That factors in sack yardage lost, which obviously penalizes Rodgers.
October 27th, 2009 at 6:27 am
The title reads funny in the RSS feed...
"Manning’s 2009 Topped Only By 2004 by Neil Paine"
Made me laugh
October 27th, 2009 at 6:43 am
The season/game/TD finder is awesome by the way. I was thinking Marshall Faulk'esque pass-catching running backs were a relatively new phenomenon, but apparently not -- Lydell Mitchell caught 50+ passes in 5 seasons and twice led the league in receptions back in the 1970s. I'd never even heard of the guy.
October 27th, 2009 at 7:30 am
Mitchell and Franco Harris were in the same backfield at Penn State and graduated the same year...
October 27th, 2009 at 7:32 am
Wow, Rodgers is #1 and he's been sacked 25 times!
October 27th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Heh, and how else would I discover that Tony Banks is 3-0 in playoff games when he has a passer rating under 40? Alas, I already knew Warren Moon was 0-2 in playoff games with a passer rating over 100.
October 27th, 2009 at 9:54 am
The Tony Banks mention got me thinking about the 2001 Redskins. Daniel Snyder had finally fired Norv Turner, partly over Norv's reluctance/refusal to play FA signing Jeff George over Brad Johnson. Snyder brought in Schottenheimer to clean up a roster in salary cap hell full of over-the-hill high-priced FAs who apparently were happy to take Snyder's money but not happy with Marty's old school ways. Marty started Jeff George weeks 1 and 2, possibly to shut Snyder up, and the Skins got blown out 30-3 and 37-0. Marty benched (cut?) George and made Banks the starter. The Skins lost two more blowouts, 45-13 and 23-9 and lost a close week 5 game 9-7. At this point the Skins are 0-5 and have been out-scored 144-32. So they are destined for the bottom of the league, Marty will "lose the team", etc, right?
Instead the Skins go on a five game winning streak, at least reach mediocrity, and finish 8-8. After giving up over 30 points per game thru week 4, the Skins never give up more than 21 points again that year. After topping out at 13 points in weeks 1-5, the offense only scores less than 13 once the rest of the way, to the division champ Eagles, who the skins split with, winning 13-3 and losing 20-6. I'm a big Marty fan and I think this was his finest coaching job, taking a team out of slary cap hell and squeezing an 8-3 recovery out of an 0-5 team.
His reward was to get fired for Steve Spurrier and to see Vinny Cerrato return from exile.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:16 am
mrh, I am with you on Schottenheimer. I have no dog in the fight with him - I just feel his playoff record is unfairly overshadowing his awesome regular season coaching performance. Unless it's by his own choice, I think it's ashame that he is not coaching in the NFL, when guys like Jauron, Mora, Phillips, Turner, etc. are.
October 27th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Yep, you guys wouldn't believe how good my created player was in Madden 2004...
October 27th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
I have no strong feelings on Marty as a coach, but... So he's 5-13 in playoff games. That's not pretty but I don't think it stretches credulity that he could have come by that record by statistical chance, without being some sort of inherent playoff choking coach. Using the PFR formula for expected wins/losses based on points for/against, he has a "moral" playoff record of 7.33 - 10.67 (41%) which is awfully close to the 50% in the playoffs that you'd expect from any coach.
I assume the guys making hiring decisions in every organization but the Raiders are smart enough to know this... but then again, you never know.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
mrh,
Some more details on the Redskins in 2000 and 2001:
1. Is it established that Snyder's firing of Turner had anything to do with George? I though it was due to a loss to the lowly Cardinals (which brought the team to 7-6).
2. Yes George was cut right off the roster following Week 2. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.
3. Football Outsiders has the 2001 Redskins ranked 16th overall in DVOA, but 5th in weighted DVOA (which points to an improvement and strong finish to the season. Weighted DVOA discounts early performance and emphasizes later performance). Their defense was 10th in DVOA on the season, *first* in weighted DVOA. Their offense was 28th in DVOA, 16th in weighted DVOA.
Think about that for a second. The team gave up 30, 37, 45, and 23 points in its first 4 games (average of 33.75), yet their defense was playing like the best in the league by the end of the season and finished 10th overall even including those games! That is one hell of a turnaround. The team's personnel was gutted and they started 0-5, looking atrocious the whole way (they looked worse over the first 5 games than any Skins team of my lifetime, yes including both this year and the year they started 0-7 under Norv), and somehow they finished on an 8-3 run. I haven't followed Marty's entire career (who has, besides maybe Doc Z?) but I would be shocked if you're wrong in your assessment that it was the best performance of his career.
4. I believe Marty was not fired specifically to hire Spurrier, but because he refused to give up control of personnel and he refused to fire OC Jimmy Raye (currently OC for SF). Smart move by Marty, dumb move by Snyder.