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Similarity Scores for the 2009 teams, part III

Posted by Jason Lisk on October 30, 2009

357NOV30082_Saints_at_BucsThis is the third installment in a series of posts looking at similar historical teams through six games. The first installment looked at teams with at least 3 wins among those who did not have a bye in the first six weeks. The second post looked at the teams with losing record who played six games through the first six weeks. This one finishes up with the twelve teams who played their sixth game last weekend.

I don't know that this is rocket science, but when a team gets off to a 6-0 start and sets a record for most points scored in the first six games of a season, they are going to compare favorably to some other really good teams that continued to be good. The Saints have the highest expected win total of any of the 32 teams in this study. The Cowboys have a large number of teams that went on huge winning streaks over the second half of the season in their group.

Overall, my playoff odds calculation turned out to be pretty reasonable. The sum of the odds for AFC teams equaled exactly 6.00 teams making the playoffs. The sum of the odds in the NFC teams was slightly high (6.20), but this is explained by so many bad teams playing their seventh game last week, so the "through six games" record is slightly over .500. Also, I'm not taking into account that the NFC has several teams logjammed at 4-2 right now, so it's going to take slightly more wins than average to make the NFC Playoffs. So feel free to tick off a percent or two for the NFC teams and their playoff odds.

Teams are listed in descending order of playoff chances.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
weighted wins (last 10): 7.71
playoff chances: 99%

==============================================================
624	min	1998		6-0		9-1
570	nwe	2007		6-0		10-0
553	den	1998		6-0		8-2
454	clt	2007		6-0		7-3
444	chi	1985		6-0		9-1
422	mia	1984		6-0		8-2
421	sfo	1998		5-1		7-3
409	den	1997		6-0		6-4
374	kan	2003		6-0		7-3
373	ram	2000		6-0		4-6
==============================================================

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
weighted wins (last 10): 6.45
playoff chances: 95%

==============================================================
827	ram	2001		6-0		8-2
783	mia	1984		6-0		8-2
720	nwe	1997		5-1		5-5
708	oti	1991		5-1		6-4
691	clt	2007		6-0		7-3
674	den	1997		6-0		6-4
658	chi	2006		6-0		7-3
650	rai	1995		5-1		3-7
645	phi	1980		5-1		7-3
634	phi	2004		6-0		7-3
==============================================================

DALLAS COWBOYS
weighted wins (last 10): 6.68
playoff chances: 74%

==============================================================
912	crd	1988		4-2		3-7
882	sfo	1981		4-2		9-1
854	clt	1999		4-2		9-1
842	nyg	2006		4-2		4-6
821	sea	2005		4-2		9-1
814	den	1985		4-2		7-3
807	nwe	1998		4-2		5-5
802	mia	1994		4-2		6-4
788	sfo	1989		5-1		9-1
774	oti	1992		4-2		6-4
==============================================================

GREEN BAY PACKERS
weighted wins (last 10): 5.83
playoff chances: 74%

==============================================================
914	sfo	1986		4-2		6-3-1
895	kan	1990		4-2		7-3
870	dal	1999		4-2		4-6
866	sdg	2001		4-2		1-9
845	buf	1992		4-2		7-3
843	pit	1980		4-2		5-5
827	buf	1981		4-2		6-4
826	ram	2003		4-2		8-2
818	gnb	2001		4-2		8-2
817	dal	1998		4-2		6-4
==============================================================

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
weighted wins (last 10): 6.34
playoff chances: 70%

==============================================================
892	nwe	1998		4-2		5-5
876	clt	1999		4-2		9-1
866	sfo	1981		4-2		9-1
862	sea	2005		4-2		9-1
847	sdg	1980		4-2		7-3
828	dal	1986		4-2		3-7
826	nyj	1997		4-2		5-5
818	oti	1992		4-2		6-4
798	den	1985		4-2		7-3
798	crd	1988		4-2		3-7
==============================================================

ARIZONA CARDINALS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.97
playoff chances: 49%

==============================================================
919	atl	1994		4-2		3-7
847	dal	2005		4-2		5-5
817	rai	1985		4-2		8-2
814	clt	1980		4-2		3-7
783	phi	2005		4-2		2-8
780	den	1991		4-2		8-2
779	min	1994		4-2		6-4
775	nor	2001		4-2		3-7
770	gnb	1995		4-2		7-3
766	kan	1994		4-2		5-5
==============================================================

ATLANTA FALCONS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.91
playoff chances: 47%

==============================================================
847	sfo	2002		4-2		6-4
844	atl	1994		4-2		3-7
834	mia	1981		4-1-1		7-3
827	rai	1985		4-2		8-2
821	nor	2001		4-2		3-7
801	gnb	1993		3-3		6-4
799	clt	1980		4-2		3-7
799	pit	1981		4-2		4-6
789	den	2002		4-2		5-5
785	nor	1983		4-2		4-6
==============================================================

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS
weighted wins (last 10): 5.66
playoff chances: 42%

==============================================================
900	den	2001		3-3		5-5
868	min	1995		3-3		5-5
866	pit	2002		3-3		7-2-1
859	ram	1984		3-3		7-3
856	sea	1983		3-3		6-4
850	sdg	2007		3-3		8-2
836	pit	1991		3-3		4-6
825	det	1997		3-3		6-4
825	min	1985		3-3		4-6
825	det	1999		4-2		4-6
==============================================================

CHICAGO BEARS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.86
playoff chances: 33%

==============================================================
903	was	2003		3-3		2-8
886	tam	1984		3-3		3-7
881	crd	2007		3-3		5-5
863	mia	1989		3-3		5-5
862	nyg	1988		3-3		7-3
852	pit	1984		3-3		6-4
827	htx	2007		3-3		5-5
827	chi	1992		3-3		2-8
811	rai	1980		3-3		8-2
802	sea	1978		3-3		6-4
==============================================================

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.72
playoff chances: 32%

==============================================================
881	gnb	2008		3-3		3-7
834	nwe	2002		3-3		6-4
750	rav	1997		3-3		3-6-1
740	gnb	1989		3-3		7-3
731	atl	1984		3-3		1-9
707	oti	1990		3-3		6-4
704	was	1989		3-3		7-3
692	was	1988		3-3		4-6
685	gnb	1983		3-3		5-5
685	kan	2004		2-4		5-5
==============================================================

MIAMI DOLPHINS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.66
playoff chances: 19%

==============================================================
765	det	1998		2-4		3-7
731	den	1990		2-4		3-7
704	gnb	1985		3-3		5-5
688	det	1981		2-4		6-4
683	nyg	1992		2-4		4-6
682	cin	1995		2-4		5-5
673	chi	1992		3-3		2-8
668	rai	1980		3-3		8-2
667	det	1995		2-4		8-2
666	oti	2004		2-4		3-7
==============================================================

CAROLINA PANTHERS
weighted wins (last 10): 3.99
playoff chances: 1%

==============================================================
858	clt	1993		2-4		2-8
850	crd	2001		2-4		5-5
836	rai	2004		2-4		3-7
831	rai	2008		2-4		3-7
825	sea	1996		2-4		5-5
806	nyj	1990		2-4		4-6
798	nor	2003		2-4		6-4
794	ram	1997		2-4		3-7
792	crd	1996		2-4		5-5
791	gnb	1990		2-4		4-6
==============================================================

This entry was posted on Friday, October 30th, 2009 at 8:21 am and is filed under Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.