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ShareThisSimilarity Scores for the 2009 teams, part III
This is the third installment in a series of posts looking at similar historical teams through six games. The first installment looked at teams with at least 3 wins among those who did not have a bye in the first six weeks. The second post looked at the teams with losing record who played six games through the first six weeks. This one finishes up with the twelve teams who played their sixth game last weekend.
I don't know that this is rocket science, but when a team gets off to a 6-0 start and sets a record for most points scored in the first six games of a season, they are going to compare favorably to some other really good teams that continued to be good. The Saints have the highest expected win total of any of the 32 teams in this study. The Cowboys have a large number of teams that went on huge winning streaks over the second half of the season in their group.
Overall, my playoff odds calculation turned out to be pretty reasonable. The sum of the odds for AFC teams equaled exactly 6.00 teams making the playoffs. The sum of the odds in the NFC teams was slightly high (6.20), but this is explained by so many bad teams playing their seventh game last week, so the "through six games" record is slightly over .500. Also, I'm not taking into account that the NFC has several teams logjammed at 4-2 right now, so it's going to take slightly more wins than average to make the NFC Playoffs. So feel free to tick off a percent or two for the NFC teams and their playoff odds.
Teams are listed in descending order of playoff chances.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
weighted wins (last 10): 7.71
playoff chances: 99%
============================================================== 624 min 1998 6-0 9-1 570 nwe 2007 6-0 10-0 553 den 1998 6-0 8-2 454 clt 2007 6-0 7-3 444 chi 1985 6-0 9-1 422 mia 1984 6-0 8-2 421 sfo 1998 5-1 7-3 409 den 1997 6-0 6-4 374 kan 2003 6-0 7-3 373 ram 2000 6-0 4-6 ==============================================================
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
weighted wins (last 10): 6.45
playoff chances: 95%
============================================================== 827 ram 2001 6-0 8-2 783 mia 1984 6-0 8-2 720 nwe 1997 5-1 5-5 708 oti 1991 5-1 6-4 691 clt 2007 6-0 7-3 674 den 1997 6-0 6-4 658 chi 2006 6-0 7-3 650 rai 1995 5-1 3-7 645 phi 1980 5-1 7-3 634 phi 2004 6-0 7-3 ==============================================================
DALLAS COWBOYS
weighted wins (last 10): 6.68
playoff chances: 74%
============================================================== 912 crd 1988 4-2 3-7 882 sfo 1981 4-2 9-1 854 clt 1999 4-2 9-1 842 nyg 2006 4-2 4-6 821 sea 2005 4-2 9-1 814 den 1985 4-2 7-3 807 nwe 1998 4-2 5-5 802 mia 1994 4-2 6-4 788 sfo 1989 5-1 9-1 774 oti 1992 4-2 6-4 ==============================================================
GREEN BAY PACKERS
weighted wins (last 10): 5.83
playoff chances: 74%
============================================================== 914 sfo 1986 4-2 6-3-1 895 kan 1990 4-2 7-3 870 dal 1999 4-2 4-6 866 sdg 2001 4-2 1-9 845 buf 1992 4-2 7-3 843 pit 1980 4-2 5-5 827 buf 1981 4-2 6-4 826 ram 2003 4-2 8-2 818 gnb 2001 4-2 8-2 817 dal 1998 4-2 6-4 ==============================================================
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
weighted wins (last 10): 6.34
playoff chances: 70%
============================================================== 892 nwe 1998 4-2 5-5 876 clt 1999 4-2 9-1 866 sfo 1981 4-2 9-1 862 sea 2005 4-2 9-1 847 sdg 1980 4-2 7-3 828 dal 1986 4-2 3-7 826 nyj 1997 4-2 5-5 818 oti 1992 4-2 6-4 798 den 1985 4-2 7-3 798 crd 1988 4-2 3-7 ==============================================================
ARIZONA CARDINALS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.97
playoff chances: 49%
============================================================== 919 atl 1994 4-2 3-7 847 dal 2005 4-2 5-5 817 rai 1985 4-2 8-2 814 clt 1980 4-2 3-7 783 phi 2005 4-2 2-8 780 den 1991 4-2 8-2 779 min 1994 4-2 6-4 775 nor 2001 4-2 3-7 770 gnb 1995 4-2 7-3 766 kan 1994 4-2 5-5 ==============================================================
ATLANTA FALCONS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.91
playoff chances: 47%
============================================================== 847 sfo 2002 4-2 6-4 844 atl 1994 4-2 3-7 834 mia 1981 4-1-1 7-3 827 rai 1985 4-2 8-2 821 nor 2001 4-2 3-7 801 gnb 1993 3-3 6-4 799 clt 1980 4-2 3-7 799 pit 1981 4-2 4-6 789 den 2002 4-2 5-5 785 nor 1983 4-2 4-6 ==============================================================
SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS
weighted wins (last 10): 5.66
playoff chances: 42%
============================================================== 900 den 2001 3-3 5-5 868 min 1995 3-3 5-5 866 pit 2002 3-3 7-2-1 859 ram 1984 3-3 7-3 856 sea 1983 3-3 6-4 850 sdg 2007 3-3 8-2 836 pit 1991 3-3 4-6 825 det 1997 3-3 6-4 825 min 1985 3-3 4-6 825 det 1999 4-2 4-6 ==============================================================
CHICAGO BEARS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.86
playoff chances: 33%
============================================================== 903 was 2003 3-3 2-8 886 tam 1984 3-3 3-7 881 crd 2007 3-3 5-5 863 mia 1989 3-3 5-5 862 nyg 1988 3-3 7-3 852 pit 1984 3-3 6-4 827 htx 2007 3-3 5-5 827 chi 1992 3-3 2-8 811 rai 1980 3-3 8-2 802 sea 1978 3-3 6-4 ==============================================================
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.72
playoff chances: 32%
============================================================== 881 gnb 2008 3-3 3-7 834 nwe 2002 3-3 6-4 750 rav 1997 3-3 3-6-1 740 gnb 1989 3-3 7-3 731 atl 1984 3-3 1-9 707 oti 1990 3-3 6-4 704 was 1989 3-3 7-3 692 was 1988 3-3 4-6 685 gnb 1983 3-3 5-5 685 kan 2004 2-4 5-5 ==============================================================
MIAMI DOLPHINS
weighted wins (last 10): 4.66
playoff chances: 19%
============================================================== 765 det 1998 2-4 3-7 731 den 1990 2-4 3-7 704 gnb 1985 3-3 5-5 688 det 1981 2-4 6-4 683 nyg 1992 2-4 4-6 682 cin 1995 2-4 5-5 673 chi 1992 3-3 2-8 668 rai 1980 3-3 8-2 667 det 1995 2-4 8-2 666 oti 2004 2-4 3-7 ==============================================================
CAROLINA PANTHERS
weighted wins (last 10): 3.99
playoff chances: 1%
============================================================== 858 clt 1993 2-4 2-8 850 crd 2001 2-4 5-5 836 rai 2004 2-4 3-7 831 rai 2008 2-4 3-7 825 sea 1996 2-4 5-5 806 nyj 1990 2-4 4-6 798 nor 2003 2-4 6-4 794 ram 1997 2-4 3-7 792 crd 1996 2-4 5-5 791 gnb 1990 2-4 4-6 ==============================================================
This entry was posted on Friday, October 30th, 2009 at 8:21 am and is filed under Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
I think that the Cardinals playoff chances are slightly low, considering that they play in the NFC West.
I have a tough time judging the Cardinals season chances. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they went 12-4, and I wouldn't be surprised if they went 8-8. Their schedule is fairly easy, but...
If they go 10-6, I think they win the division outright. If they only hit 9-7, I think SF has a chance. It'll be closer if SF manages to beat the easier teams and pull out a win against IND, PHI, or GB.
adjusting for strength of schedule so far and strength of schedule coming up, i have the cardinals winning a total of 12.2 on average and san fran winning a total of 9.1 on average.
I thought this was a little high, but i retested it through my method 3 times to make sure (i would gladly submitt my method if i knew the way). Interesting that the 1985 raiders, who won 12, are so high on the cardinal's similarity score.
Well the Niners didn't beat the Colts but they gave them a pretty good run for their money. Manning had 347 yards but 0 TD passes and was sacked 3 times, and had to come back in the 4th quarter. And Crabtree had 6 receptions for 81 yards in his second NFL game.
Makes me feel a little better about the 49ers chances. Even though their record is looking like previous years, it feels like they're more competitive against better teams. Now if the Panthers can just beat the Cardinals...