Crazy Fun With SRS
Posted by Neil Paine on Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Bear with me while I throw two crazy SRS variations out there at you...
First: In the wake of Super Bowl XLII (while I was still weeping, if I recall correctly), Chase wrote this super-philosophical post about there not being a greatest team ever -- that the '07 Patriots might have been the GOAT early in the season when they were blowing the doors off of everybody, but by the time the Giants faced them in SBXLII, that team no longer resembled the team that was being billed as the most dominant ever a few months before. Likewise, the Giants were playing really well by the time January and February rolled around, and were far superior to the sorta mediocre version that trotted out on the field early in the season. So according to Chase's logic, it wasn't like you could really pinpoint "The 2007 Patriots" or "The 2007 Giants", because those two teams didn't actually exist.
As Chase put it:
I don't think the 2007 Patriots really existed. Not to get too philosophical in a football blog post, but the 2007 Patriots aren't really a team; they're a collection of 19 teams. Each game the Patriots played featured a different Patriots squad. Was Richard Seymour on the 2008 Patriots? Well if you ask the Cincinnati Bengals they might say no, since he was out for that game. Was Rosevelt Colvin on the team? He played in the first eleven games, but not the last eight. The Patriots team that played the Redskins was not the same team that struggled with the Jets late in the season. Even a casual observer could tell that.I've seen it written that this Giants team beat maybe the greatest team of all time. Hogwash! They didn't beat the Patriots of weeks 1-11; they beat a Patriots team that struggled to win at home against a 11-5 team playing without the best running back in the league, the best tight end in the league, and with a QB on one leg. The Chargers allowed 18 PPG this year; in New England -- the greatest offense ever -- San Diego allowed 21 points. Does that sound like the greatest team in league history to you? Because it doesn't to me. When that Chargers team was fully healthy, San Diego got destroyed by the Patriots in week two. Why? Because the week two New England team may very well have been the greatest team of all time. The playoffs version wasn't very close to the greatest team of all time. The week before the Pats made David Garrard look like Steve Young, and the wildcard Jags stood toe-to-toe with the Pats in that game. A win is a win, of course, but when we're discussing the greatest team of all time, wouldn't you expect something a bit more dominant?
It sounds impressive to write that the Giants knocked off an 18-0 team, a previously unbeaten team, arguably the greatest team of all time. It sounds less impressive, but no less accurate, to write that the Giants beat a team that limped into the Super Bowl, one that was a shell of its former self. They beat a team that made the Super Bowl following a pair of home wins by a combined 20 points, against one-dimensional teams.
And had New England won against the Giants, what would that have told us? That they beat New York barely, instead of losing to New York barely, like the Packers and Cowboys did. Are the 2007 Packers or 2007 Cowboys going to be on anyone's top 50 list of the greatest football teams of all time? Of course not. The Giants may have stopped New England from earning the label "best team ever", but the Giants did *not* beat the best team ever. They beat a very good team, and that's that.
[...]
Without a formula, or a guideline, or some criteria, I don't know how we can have a greatest team ever. I think the 2007 Patriots I saw, from weeks 1-11, were one of the greatest teams I ever saw. I also think the 2004 Steelers, when they beat the eventual Super Bowl competitors in consecutive weeks by 38 points, were one of the greatest teams I ever saw. How exactly would I compare those teams? Is a two game sample too short? A ten game sample? There aren't any rules on this, as far as I know. If every game, every team, truly is different, then maybe December 8th, 1940 saw the greatest team in football history play, when the Bears beat the Redskins 73-0.
Okay, well what if we had a formula -- not for every team ever yet, but within a season? Like, maybe the SRS?
Obviously, we can't run the SRS on single-game samples, because it requires multiple opponents to "work". But what if we broke each team-season down into 15 to 19 "mini-teams" based on 2-game stretches of the season? Like, the Patriots' win over the Jets in Week 1 of the 2007 season would be part of the "New England Games 1-2" team, and so would their win against the Chargers the next week. And that Chargers team would be part of the "San Diego Games 2-3" team, who played "Green Bay Games 3-4" the next week, who played "Minnesota Games 4-5" the week after that... and so on and so forth. Now, every "team" connects to every other team, just like in the regular SRS, but we've also isolated team performance down to the most specific time period possible using the SRS method.
As a matter of fact, I did this for the 2007 season:
| Rank | Team | MOV | SOS | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NewEnglandPatriots9_10 | 27.97 | 0.36 | 28.34 |
| 2 | NewEnglandPatriots7_8 | 33.00 | -5.33 | 27.67 |
| 3 | NewEnglandPatriots1_2 | 23.01 | 4.24 | 27.25 |
| 4 | NewEnglandPatriots2_3 | 24.53 | 2.43 | 26.96 |
| 5 | NewEnglandPatriots6_7 | 23.97 | 2.55 | 26.53 |
| 6 | NewEnglandPatriots8_9 | 24.50 | 1.97 | 26.47 |
| 7 | GreenBayPackers1_2 | 16.66 | 9.41 | 26.06 |
| 8 | NewEnglandPatriots5_6 | 19.00 | 5.82 | 24.82 |
| 9 | NewYorkGiants3_4 | 10.00 | 14.56 | 24.56 |
| 10 | IndianapolisColts6_7 | 25.97 | -1.70 | 24.27 |
| 11 | NewEnglandPatriots3_4 | 26.00 | -2.36 | 23.64 |
| 12 | IndianapolisColts5_6 | 20.50 | 2.28 | 22.78 |
| 13 | MinnesotaVikings11_12 | 28.00 | -5.52 | 22.48 |
| 14 | DetroitLions7_8 | 23.00 | -0.73 | 22.27 |
| 15 | NewEnglandPatriots4_5 | 19.00 | 2.93 | 21.93 |
| 16 | GreenBayPackers2_3 | 14.50 | 7.09 | 21.59 |
| 17 | DallasCowboys8_9 | 18.97 | 2.52 | 21.50 |
| 18 | SanDiegoChargers5_6 | 26.00 | -4.66 | 21.34 |
| 19 | IndianapolisColts7_8 | 10.00 | 11.06 | 21.06 |
| 20 | WashingtonRedskins14_15 | 14.47 | 6.35 | 20.82 |
| 21 | NewEnglandPatriots10_11 | 24.50 | -3.80 | 20.70 |
| 22 | DallasCowboys2_3 | 23.47 | -3.53 | 19.95 |
| 23 | DallasCowboys11_12 | 17.53 | 2.22 | 19.75 |
| 24 | DallasCowboys7_8 | 15.50 | 3.93 | 19.43 |
| 25 | WashingtonRedskins1_2 | 7.32 | 11.55 | 18.87 |
| 26 | SanDiegoChargers14_15 | 25.53 | -7.53 | 18.00 |
| 27 | PittsburghSteelers1_2 | 23.34 | -5.36 | 17.98 |
| 28 | PhiladelphiaEagles3_4 | 11.00 | 6.85 | 17.85 |
| 29 | JacksonvilleJaguars12_13 | 14.00 | 3.85 | 17.85 |
| 30 | JacksonvilleJaguars13_14 | 19.00 | -1.33 | 17.67 |
| 31 | MinnesotaVikings12_13 | 26.00 | -8.34 | 17.66 |
| 32 | WashingtonRedskins15_16 | 16.00 | 1.66 | 17.66 |
| 33 | JacksonvilleJaguars14_15 | 22.50 | -5.04 | 17.46 |
| 34 | DallasCowboys1_2 | 15.66 | 1.75 | 17.41 |
| 35 | NewYorkGiants19_20 | 4.49 | 12.73 | 17.22 |
| 36 | NewYorkGiants4_5 | 9.03 | 8.16 | 17.19 |
| 37 | WashingtonRedskins2_3 | 0.50 | 16.50 | 17.00 |
| 38 | GreenBayPackers8_9 | 22.50 | -5.83 | 16.67 |
| 39 | PhiladelphiaEagles2_3 | 10.53 | 5.38 | 15.91 |
| 40 | DallasCowboys10_11 | 15.03 | 0.20 | 15.23 |
| 41 | SanDiegoChargers13_14 | 21.50 | -6.82 | 14.68 |
| 42 | IndianapolisColts12_13 | 13.50 | 1.01 | 14.51 |
| 43 | ChicagoBears15_16 | 18.36 | -3.87 | 14.49 |
| 44 | DallasCowboys3_4 | 26.00 | -11.53 | 14.47 |
| 45 | GreenBayPackers12_13 | 10.50 | 3.84 | 14.34 |
| 46 | WashingtonRedskins3_4 | 9.03 | 5.12 | 14.15 |
| 47 | ChicagoBears14_15 | 10.50 | 3.59 | 14.09 |
| 48 | DetroitLions8_9 | 13.50 | 0.59 | 14.09 |
| 49 | JacksonvilleJaguars4_5 | 15.00 | -1.02 | 13.98 |
| 50 | WashingtonRedskins13_14 | 10.00 | 3.96 | 13.96 |
| 51 | NewYorkGiants5_6 | 16.00 | -2.12 | 13.88 |
| 52 | MinnesotaVikings13_14 | 13.50 | 0.23 | 13.73 |
| 53 | SanDiegoChargers6_7 | 16.53 | -2.84 | 13.69 |
| 54 | HoustonTexans13_14 | 13.03 | 0.32 | 13.34 |
| 55 | PhiladelphiaEagles1_2 | -7.32 | 20.64 | 13.32 |
| 56 | JacksonvilleJaguars3_4 | 12.47 | 0.85 | 13.32 |
| 57 | GreenBayPackers13_14 | 25.00 | -11.70 | 13.30 |
| 58 | NewEnglandPatriots18_19 | 1.51 | 11.72 | 13.24 |
| 59 | GreenBayPackers16_17 | 18.53 | -5.36 | 13.17 |
| 60 | JacksonvilleJaguars15_16 | 19.68 | -6.61 | 13.06 |
| 61 | KansasCityChiefs3_4 | 8.50 | 4.50 | 13.00 |
| 62 | NewOrleansSaints7_8 | 19.00 | -6.29 | 12.71 |
| 63 | KansasCityChiefs4_5 | 2.00 | 10.69 | 12.69 |
| 64 | SanDiegoChargers17_18 | 7.50 | 4.89 | 12.39 |
| 65 | GreenBayPackers17_18 | 2.36 | 9.86 | 12.22 |
| 66 | NewYorkGiants2_3 | -7.50 | 19.70 | 12.20 |
| 67 | GreenBayPackers9_10 | 21.03 | -8.98 | 12.04 |
| 68 | MinnesotaVikings10_11 | 15.50 | -3.49 | 12.01 |
| 69 | IndianapolisColts14_15 | 15.00 | -3.04 | 11.96 |
| 70 | DallasCowboys9_10 | 8.00 | 3.70 | 11.70 |
| 71 | NewEnglandPatriots13_14 | 12.53 | -0.84 | 11.69 |
| 72 | IndianapolisColts4_5 | 15.53 | -3.93 | 11.60 |
| 73 | GreenBayPackers3_4 | 7.00 | 4.45 | 11.45 |
| 74 | SanDiegoChargers4_5 | 12.00 | -0.71 | 11.29 |
| 75 | ArizonaCardinals9_10 | 9.00 | 2.15 | 11.15 |
| 76 | SeattleSeahawks12_13 | 12.50 | -1.64 | 10.86 |
| 77 | IndianapolisColts15_16 | 5.53 | 5.28 | 10.80 |
| 78 | JacksonvilleJaguars11_12 | 9.50 | 1.07 | 10.57 |
| 79 | SanDiegoChargers15_16 | 16.68 | -6.18 | 10.50 |
| 80 | TampaBayBuccaneers10_11 | 15.00 | -4.59 | 10.41 |
| 81 | NewYorkGiants6_7 | 19.50 | -9.22 | 10.28 |
| 82 | PhiladelphiaEagles14_15 | 12.47 | -2.21 | 10.26 |
| 83 | SanDiegoChargers16_17 | 12.00 | -1.85 | 10.15 |
| 84 | NewYorkGiants18_19 | 6.47 | 3.67 | 10.14 |
| 85 | NewEnglandPatriots17_18 | 7.03 | 2.74 | 9.76 |
| 86 | IndianapolisColts8_9 | -3.00 | 12.76 | 9.76 |
| 87 | NewEnglandPatriots16_17 | 6.66 | 3.04 | 9.70 |
| 88 | WashingtonRedskins4_5 | 14.00 | -4.34 | 9.66 |
| 89 | MinnesotaVikings14_15 | -4.97 | 14.40 | 9.43 |
| 90 | TampaBayBuccaneers11_12 | 5.00 | 4.40 | 9.40 |
| 91 | SanDiegoChargers2_3 | -12.53 | 21.81 | 9.29 |
| 92 | DetroitLions6_7 | 8.00 | 1.28 | 9.28 |
| 93 | HoustonTexans1_2 | 15.32 | -6.05 | 9.27 |
| 94 | IndianapolisColts1_2 | 12.66 | -3.40 | 9.26 |
| 95 | PhiladelphiaEagles4_5 | -0.03 | 9.27 | 9.24 |
| 96 | WashingtonRedskins10_11 | -2.53 | 11.68 | 9.16 |
| 97 | JacksonvilleJaguars10_11 | 11.53 | -2.42 | 9.10 |
| 98 | SeattleSeahawks16_17 | 9.00 | 0.09 | 9.09 |
| 99 | TampaBayBuccaneers9_10 | 15.50 | -6.42 | 9.08 |
| 100 | TennesseeTitans16_17 | 0.47 | 8.53 | 9.00 |
| 101 | SeattleSeahawks9_10 | 12.53 | -3.75 | 8.78 |
| 102 | OaklandRaiders4_5 | 4.97 | 3.75 | 8.72 |
| 103 | IndianapolisColts11_12 | 10.50 | -1.91 | 8.59 |
| 104 | MinnesotaVikings5_6 | -0.53 | 9.09 | 8.57 |
| 105 | NewEnglandPatriots15_16 | 12.00 | -3.52 | 8.48 |
| 106 | SeattleSeahawks11_12 | 7.47 | 0.95 | 8.43 |
| 107 | NewEnglandPatriots12_13 | 12.00 | -3.68 | 8.32 |
| 108 | NewOrleansSaints11_12 | 10.50 | -2.34 | 8.16 |
| 109 | IndianapolisColts13_14 | 18.47 | -10.32 | 8.15 |
| 110 | IndianapolisColts2_3 | 6.97 | 1.16 | 8.13 |
| 111 | SeattleSeahawks8_9 | 10.50 | -2.56 | 7.94 |
| 112 | PhiladelphiaEagles15_16 | 13.66 | -5.91 | 7.75 |
| 113 | PittsburghSteelers7_8 | 21.00 | -13.30 | 7.70 |
| 114 | ClevelandBrowns4_5 | -1.50 | 9.19 | 7.69 |
| 115 | NewYorkGiants15_16 | 7.00 | 0.61 | 7.61 |
| 116 | JacksonvilleJaguars9_10 | 11.00 | -3.46 | 7.54 |
| 117 | ChicagoBears7_8 | -3.00 | 10.46 | 7.46 |
| 118 | TennesseeTitans15_16 | 5.00 | 2.37 | 7.37 |
| 119 | PhiladelphiaEagles11_12 | -3.50 | 10.84 | 7.34 |
| 120 | NewYorkGiants14_15 | 2.50 | 4.76 | 7.26 |
| 121 | TampaBayBuccaneers3_4 | 17.00 | -9.82 | 7.18 |
| 122 | ClevelandBrowns5_6 | -3.50 | 10.52 | 7.02 |
| 123 | OaklandRaiders3_4 | 10.00 | -3.08 | 6.92 |
| 124 | SanDiegoChargers1_2 | -11.34 | 18.26 | 6.92 |
| 125 | PhiladelphiaEagles10_11 | 3.50 | 3.34 | 6.84 |
| 126 | PittsburghSteelers2_3 | 19.03 | -12.26 | 6.77 |
| 127 | DallasCowboys6_7 | -8.47 | 15.13 | 6.65 |
| 128 | DallasCowboys12_13 | 5.50 | 1.13 | 6.63 |
| 129 | ArizonaCardinals8_9 | 1.50 | 4.87 | 6.37 |
| 130 | TampaBayBuccaneers4_5 | -0.03 | 6.27 | 6.24 |
| 131 | SanDiegoChargers18_19 | -1.69 | 7.93 | 6.23 |
| 132 | DallasCowboys4_5 | 14.50 | -8.28 | 6.22 |
| 133 | NewEnglandPatriots14_15 | 12.53 | -6.33 | 6.20 |
| 134 | SanDiegoChargers10_11 | 5.50 | 0.69 | 6.19 |
| 135 | NewYorkGiants12_13 | 6.97 | -0.80 | 6.18 |
| 136 | PhiladelphiaEagles6_7 | 2.00 | 4.17 | 6.17 |
| 137 | St.LouisRams9_10 | 8.97 | -2.88 | 6.09 |
| 138 | IndianapolisColts3_4 | 12.00 | -5.96 | 6.04 |
| 139 | ChicagoBears6_7 | 0.00 | 5.66 | 5.66 |
| 140 | SeattleSeahawks10_11 | 6.00 | -0.47 | 5.53 |
| 141 | NewYorkGiants13_14 | -4.50 | 9.95 | 5.45 |
| 142 | MiamiDolphins1_2 | -13.32 | 18.74 | 5.42 |
| 143 | PittsburghSteelers8_9 | 14.03 | -8.78 | 5.25 |
| 144 | DetroitLions1_2 | 6.01 | -0.78 | 5.23 |
| 145 | ClevelandBrowns3_4 | 6.00 | -0.92 | 5.08 |
| 146 | ChicagoBears13_14 | -4.53 | 9.57 | 5.04 |
| 147 | PhiladelphiaEagles9_10 | 9.00 | -3.99 | 5.01 |
| 148 | GreenBayPackers11_12 | 3.47 | 1.52 | 5.00 |
| 149 | GreenBayPackers7_8 | 11.47 | -6.60 | 4.88 |
| 150 | NewOrleansSaints6_7 | 13.50 | -8.63 | 4.87 |
| 151 | SanDiegoChargers11_12 | 16.00 | -11.15 | 4.85 |
| 152 | ChicagoBears8_9 | 1.00 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| 153 | ChicagoBears5_6 | 2.00 | 2.63 | 4.63 |
| 154 | TennesseeTitans2_3 | 7.50 | -2.88 | 4.62 |
| 155 | ClevelandBrowns7_8 | 5.00 | -0.39 | 4.61 |
| 156 | SanDiegoChargers12_13 | 12.97 | -8.43 | 4.55 |
| 157 | ChicagoBears9_10 | 4.97 | -0.52 | 4.46 |
| 158 | HoustonTexans2_3 | 3.50 | 0.87 | 4.37 |
| 159 | NewOrleansSaints10_11 | 8.97 | -4.73 | 4.24 |
| 160 | SeattleSeahawks7_8 | 12.00 | -7.77 | 4.23 |
| 161 | SanDiegoChargers3_4 | -10.50 | 14.68 | 4.18 |
| 162 | PhiladelphiaEagles7_8 | -7.00 | 11.12 | 4.12 |
| 163 | PhiladelphiaEagles5_6 | 2.00 | 2.11 | 4.11 |
| 164 | HoustonTexans9_10 | 10.00 | -5.93 | 4.07 |
| 165 | ClevelandBrowns6_7 | 8.50 | -4.60 | 3.90 |
| 166 | MinnesotaVikings4_5 | -2.00 | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| 167 | PhiladelphiaEagles13_14 | 0.50 | 3.26 | 3.76 |
| 168 | ClevelandBrowns13_14 | 7.00 | -3.43 | 3.57 |
| 169 | TampaBayBuccaneers12_13 | -2.03 | 5.48 | 3.45 |
| 170 | NewYorkJets4_5 | -4.03 | 7.47 | 3.45 |
| 171 | JacksonvilleJaguars5_6 | -3.97 | 7.36 | 3.38 |
| 172 | NewEnglandPatriots11_12 | 3.00 | 0.37 | 3.37 |
| 173 | MinnesotaVikings15_16 | -9.32 | 12.57 | 3.25 |
| 174 | SeattleSeahawks13_14 | 9.00 | -5.81 | 3.19 |
| 175 | DallasCowboys14_15 | 1.50 | 1.63 | 3.13 |
| 176 | ClevelandBrowns8_9 | 0.00 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| 177 | MinnesotaVikings7_8 | 2.53 | 0.44 | 2.97 |
| 178 | SanDiegoChargers9_10 | -2.50 | 5.44 | 2.94 |
| 179 | NewOrleansSaints8_9 | 1.53 | 1.40 | 2.93 |
| 180 | TampaBayBuccaneers14_15 | 16.00 | -13.16 | 2.84 |
| 181 | OaklandRaiders11_12 | 8.50 | -5.67 | 2.83 |
| 182 | TennesseeTitans1_2 | -1.32 | 4.05 | 2.73 |
| 183 | HoustonTexans15_16 | -4.50 | 7.21 | 2.71 |
| 184 | NewYorkGiants1_2 | -18.99 | 21.69 | 2.70 |
| 185 | MinnesotaVikings1_2 | 5.99 | -3.31 | 2.68 |
| 186 | ClevelandBrowns2_3 | 2.00 | 0.65 | 2.65 |
| 187 | PittsburghSteelers14_15 | 5.00 | -2.39 | 2.61 |
| 188 | TampaBayBuccaneers13_14 | 10.00 | -7.56 | 2.44 |
| 189 | PhiladelphiaEagles8_9 | -6.50 | 8.93 | 2.43 |
| 190 | NewYorkGiants16_17 | 0.34 | 1.94 | 2.28 |
| 191 | GreenBayPackers6_7 | 4.50 | -2.26 | 2.24 |
| 192 | SeattleSeahawks17_18 | -6.68 | 8.90 | 2.23 |
| 193 | CincinnatiBengals15_16 | 6.68 | -4.48 | 2.20 |
| 194 | NewYorkGiants9_10 | -2.50 | 4.69 | 2.19 |
| 195 | SeattleSeahawks15_16 | 12.01 | -9.85 | 2.16 |
| 196 | TennesseeTitans3_4 | 12.00 | -9.87 | 2.13 |
| 197 | NewYorkJets5_6 | -9.00 | 11.10 | 2.10 |
| 198 | WashingtonRedskins9_10 | -6.50 | 8.59 | 2.09 |
| 199 | CincinnatiBengals10_11 | 7.53 | -5.47 | 2.05 |
| 200 | HoustonTexans14_15 | -2.50 | 4.53 | 2.03 |
| 201 | MinnesotaVikings2_3 | -0.03 | 2.02 | 1.99 |
| 202 | DallasCowboys5_6 | -10.00 | 11.92 | 1.92 |
| 203 | KansasCityChiefs6_7 | 4.50 | -2.62 | 1.88 |
| 204 | CarolinaPanthers5_6 | 11.97 | -10.13 | 1.85 |
| 205 | NewYorkGiants7_8 | 9.01 | -7.17 | 1.84 |
| 206 | GreenBayPackers4_5 | 0.00 | 1.47 | 1.47 |
| 207 | HoustonTexans12_13 | 3.00 | -1.56 | 1.44 |
| 208 | St.LouisRams8_9 | 0.50 | 0.91 | 1.41 |
| 209 | NewYorkGiants8_9 | -5.49 | 6.84 | 1.36 |
| 210 | BuffaloBills12_13 | 11.00 | -9.65 | 1.35 |
| 211 | NewYorkGiants17_18 | 9.97 | -8.62 | 1.35 |
| 212 | St.LouisRams10_11 | -0.50 | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| 213 | SanFrancisco49ers10_11 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| 214 | WashingtonRedskins16_17 | 0.00 | 1.32 | 1.32 |
| 215 | NewYorkJets14_15 | -4.03 | 5.34 | 1.32 |
| 216 | WashingtonRedskins11_12 | -3.50 | 4.79 | 1.29 |
| 217 | PhiladelphiaEagles12_13 | -6.47 | 7.73 | 1.25 |
| 218 | GreenBayPackers10_11 | 12.50 | -11.30 | 1.20 |
| 219 | OaklandRaiders5_6 | -8.00 | 9.18 | 1.18 |
| 220 | WashingtonRedskins12_13 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| 221 | MiamiDolphins7_8 | -13.49 | 14.35 | 0.86 |
| 222 | KansasCityChiefs5_6 | -4.47 | 5.30 | 0.83 |
| 223 | MiamiDolphins6_7 | -15.50 | 16.28 | 0.78 |
| 224 | IndianapolisColts16_17 | -7.97 | 8.75 | 0.77 |
| 225 | DenverBroncos9_10 | 15.00 | -14.37 | 0.63 |
| 226 | MinnesotaVikings6_7 | -8.50 | 9.09 | 0.59 |
| 227 | TennesseeTitans12_13 | -1.97 | 2.55 | 0.57 |
| 228 | ChicagoBears1_2 | 2.01 | -1.44 | 0.57 |
| 229 | BuffaloBills8_9 | 7.50 | -6.95 | 0.55 |
| 230 | MinnesotaVikings3_4 | -5.00 | 5.54 | 0.54 |
| 231 | NewYorkJets12_13 | 10.50 | -9.98 | 0.52 |
| 232 | BuffaloBills7_8 | 11.00 | -10.55 | 0.45 |
| 233 | ArizonaCardinals3_4 | 2.00 | -1.56 | 0.44 |
| 234 | DenverBroncos13_14 | 8.00 | -7.57 | 0.43 |
| 235 | SeattleSeahawks3_4 | 11.50 | -11.11 | 0.39 |
| 236 | TampaBayBuccaneers8_9 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| 237 | CarolinaPanthers6_7 | -4.50 | 4.85 | 0.35 |
| 238 | JacksonvilleJaguars2_3 | 7.50 | -7.15 | 0.35 |
| 239 | JacksonvilleJaguars6_7 | -10.50 | 10.84 | 0.34 |
| 240 | JacksonvilleJaguars8_9 | 1.97 | -1.84 | 0.14 |
| 241 | NewOrleansSaints5_6 | 8.50 | -8.37 | 0.13 |
| 242 | BuffaloBills4_5 | -1.97 | 2.10 | 0.12 |
| 243 | TampaBayBuccaneers2_3 | 16.03 | -16.07 | -0.05 |
| 244 | SeattleSeahawks1_2 | 3.66 | -3.72 | -0.07 |
| 245 | ClevelandBrowns15_16 | 1.99 | -2.09 | -0.10 |
| 246 | ClevelandBrowns12_13 | 2.97 | -3.07 | -0.10 |
| 247 | SeattleSeahawks14_15 | 9.00 | -9.12 | -0.12 |
| 248 | KansasCityChiefs7_8 | -4.50 | 4.29 | -0.21 |
| 249 | PittsburghSteelers13_14 | -14.00 | 13.79 | -0.21 |
| 250 | PittsburghSteelers4_5 | 7.00 | -7.28 | -0.28 |
| 251 | BaltimoreRavens2_3 | 2.03 | -2.48 | -0.45 |
| 252 | OaklandRaiders2_3 | -0.50 | -0.13 | -0.63 |
| 253 | JacksonvilleJaguars17_18 | -3.69 | 2.94 | -0.76 |
| 254 | DenverBroncos15_16 | -11.34 | 10.58 | -0.76 |
| 255 | HoustonTexans10_11 | 1.50 | -2.31 | -0.81 |
| 256 | ArizonaCardinals10_11 | 1.00 | -1.81 | -0.81 |
| 257 | TampaBayBuccaneers5_6 | -8.00 | 7.16 | -0.84 |
| 258 | NewOrleansSaints12_13 | 8.00 | -9.03 | -1.03 |
| 259 | CincinnatiBengals3_4 | -12.00 | 10.96 | -1.04 |
| 260 | AtlantaFalcons15_16 | 0.00 | -1.13 | -1.13 |
| 261 | NewYorkJets11_12 | 0.97 | -2.11 | -1.13 |
| 262 | DallasCowboys15_16 | -4.03 | 2.86 | -1.16 |
| 263 | BuffaloBills3_4 | -14.00 | 12.71 | -1.29 |
| 264 | ArizonaCardinals2_3 | 0.00 | -1.29 | -1.29 |
| 265 | OaklandRaiders10_11 | 0.97 | -2.33 | -1.35 |
| 266 | PittsburghSteelers5_6 | 9.00 | -10.47 | -1.47 |
| 267 | ChicagoBears10_11 | -2.00 | 0.45 | -1.55 |
| 268 | CincinnatiBengals1_2 | -0.68 | -0.92 | -1.60 |
| 269 | TennesseeTitans4_5 | 2.00 | -3.62 | -1.62 |
| 270 | ClevelandBrowns14_15 | 1.50 | -3.12 | -1.62 |
| 271 | PittsburghSteelers6_7 | 6.97 | -8.66 | -1.69 |
| 272 | DenverBroncos12_13 | 10.00 | -11.69 | -1.69 |
| 273 | DallasCowboys13_14 | -1.50 | -0.20 | -1.70 |
| 274 | PittsburghSteelers12_13 | -3.50 | 1.71 | -1.79 |
| 275 | SanDiegoChargers7_8 | 3.50 | -5.31 | -1.81 |
| 276 | CincinnatiBengals11_12 | 7.50 | -9.38 | -1.88 |
| 277 | ChicagoBears12_13 | -6.50 | 4.59 | -1.91 |
| 278 | CincinnatiBengals4_5 | -14.00 | 12.07 | -1.93 |
| 279 | BuffaloBills11_12 | -7.53 | 5.53 | -2.00 |
| 280 | JacksonvilleJaguars7_8 | -5.03 | 2.99 | -2.04 |
| 281 | CincinnatiBengals2_3 | -1.53 | -0.58 | -2.10 |
| 282 | SeattleSeahawks2_3 | 0.00 | -2.13 | -2.13 |
| 283 | BaltimoreRavens1_2 | 1.34 | -3.55 | -2.21 |
| 284 | SanFrancisco49ers14_15 | 1.53 | -3.81 | -2.28 |
| 285 | ClevelandBrowns10_11 | 6.50 | -8.81 | -2.31 |
| 286 | NewOrleansSaints4_5 | 4.00 | -6.42 | -2.42 |
| 287 | BaltimoreRavens3_4 | -5.50 | 2.98 | -2.52 |
| 288 | NewYorkJets13_14 | -8.00 | 5.34 | -2.66 |
| 289 | IndianapolisColts10_11 | 10.50 | -13.21 | -2.71 |
| 290 | AtlantaFalcons4_5 | 1.50 | -4.22 | -2.72 |
| 291 | NewOrleansSaints15_16 | -13.66 | 10.83 | -2.83 |
| 292 | MiamiDolphins2_3 | -10.00 | 7.15 | -2.85 |
| 293 | NewYorkGiants11_12 | -9.50 | 6.57 | -2.93 |
| 294 | MinnesotaVikings8_9 | -8.00 | 5.05 | -2.95 |
| 295 | PittsburghSteelers3_4 | 7.00 | -9.99 | -2.99 |
| 296 | ClevelandBrowns9_10 | 2.97 | -5.98 | -3.01 |
| 297 | TampaBayBuccaneers6_7 | -2.00 | -1.07 | -3.07 |
| 298 | ChicagoBears4_5 | 1.47 | -4.56 | -3.09 |
| 299 | CincinnatiBengals14_15 | -1.00 | -2.11 | -3.11 |
| 300 | NewYorkJets3_4 | 0.00 | -3.20 | -3.20 |
| 301 | ClevelandBrowns1_2 | -7.97 | 4.76 | -3.21 |
| 302 | ArizonaCardinals7_8 | -1.53 | -1.73 | -3.26 |
| 303 | BuffaloBills13_14 | 6.50 | -9.77 | -3.27 |
| 304 | GreenBayPackers5_6 | -4.97 | 1.65 | -3.32 |
| 305 | GreenBayPackers14_15 | -1.53 | -1.80 | -3.32 |
| 306 | CarolinaPanthers12_13 | -7.00 | 3.65 | -3.35 |
| 307 | ClevelandBrowns11_12 | 2.00 | -5.36 | -3.36 |
| 308 | NewYorkJets15_16 | -0.68 | -2.75 | -3.42 |
| 309 | CincinnatiBengals9_10 | 3.00 | -6.47 | -3.47 |
| 310 | NewYorkJets1_2 | -11.68 | 8.20 | -3.48 |
| 311 | DenverBroncos6_7 | -4.47 | 0.99 | -3.49 |
| 312 | PittsburghSteelers11_12 | 5.53 | -9.03 | -3.50 |
| 313 | TennesseeTitans13_14 | 1.50 | -5.06 | -3.56 |
| 314 | CarolinaPanthers14_15 | -4.97 | 1.26 | -3.71 |
| 315 | NewOrleansSaints13_14 | 13.50 | -17.22 | -3.72 |
| 316 | DenverBroncos1_2 | 1.34 | -5.10 | -3.76 |
| 317 | KansasCityChiefs2_3 | -3.50 | -0.27 | -3.77 |
| 318 | BuffaloBills5_6 | -0.97 | -2.83 | -3.80 |
| 319 | CarolinaPanthers15_16 | 0.50 | -4.31 | -3.81 |
| 320 | TennesseeTitans14_15 | 6.50 | -10.39 | -3.89 |
| 321 | OaklandRaiders12_13 | -8.50 | 4.55 | -3.95 |
| 322 | CarolinaPanthers2_3 | -3.00 | -0.98 | -3.98 |
| 323 | NewYorkGiants10_11 | -9.00 | 5.01 | -3.99 |
| 324 | CarolinaPanthers3_4 | -3.00 | -1.03 | -4.03 |
| 325 | TampaBayBuccaneers7_8 | -4.00 | -0.06 | -4.06 |
| 326 | DetroitLions9_10 | -8.00 | 3.93 | -4.07 |
| 327 | ArizonaCardinals1_2 | 0.01 | -4.10 | -4.09 |
| 328 | TennesseeTitans5_6 | 2.47 | -6.58 | -4.11 |
| 329 | CincinnatiBengals5_6 | 0.00 | -4.16 | -4.16 |
| 330 | ChicagoBears2_3 | -9.97 | 5.79 | -4.18 |
| 331 | MiamiDolphins10_11 | -3.53 | -0.66 | -4.18 |
| 332 | ArizonaCardinals4_5 | 5.00 | -9.26 | -4.26 |
| 333 | BuffaloBills6_7 | 7.50 | -11.77 | -4.27 |
| 334 | CarolinaPanthers13_14 | -14.00 | 9.65 | -4.35 |
| 335 | SanFrancisco49ers13_14 | -9.47 | 5.04 | -4.44 |
| 336 | DenverBroncos2_3 | -5.97 | 1.51 | -4.47 |
| 337 | KansasCityChiefs10_11 | -3.00 | -1.47 | -4.47 |
| 338 | DenverBroncos8_9 | -7.53 | 3.00 | -4.53 |
| 339 | WashingtonRedskins5_6 | -0.50 | -4.10 | -4.60 |
| 340 | IndianapolisColts9_10 | 0.50 | -5.14 | -4.64 |
| 341 | DenverBroncos10_11 | 5.50 | -10.24 | -4.74 |
| 342 | BaltimoreRavens11_12 | -10.50 | 5.68 | -4.82 |
| 343 | CincinnatiBengals8_9 | 3.97 | -8.80 | -4.83 |
| 344 | ArizonaCardinals12_13 | -7.50 | 2.65 | -4.85 |
| 345 | DallasCowboys16_17 | -12.50 | 7.62 | -4.88 |
| 346 | AtlantaFalcons7_8 | -1.00 | -4.03 | -5.03 |
| 347 | DenverBroncos14_15 | -16.03 | 10.97 | -5.06 |
| 348 | BuffaloBills2_3 | -24.03 | 18.84 | -5.19 |
| 349 | JacksonvilleJaguars1_2 | 0.03 | -5.25 | -5.22 |
| 350 | PittsburghSteelers9_10 | 0.00 | -5.23 | -5.23 |
| 351 | DetroitLions12_13 | -16.50 | 11.27 | -5.23 |
| 352 | SeattleSeahawks6_7 | 5.03 | -10.26 | -5.24 |
| 353 | CarolinaPanthers4_5 | -5.00 | -0.29 | -5.29 |
| 354 | ArizonaCardinals11_12 | -2.97 | -2.33 | -5.30 |
| 355 | SanFrancisco49ers15_16 | -3.99 | -1.36 | -5.35 |
| 356 | MiamiDolphins5_6 | -3.53 | -1.93 | -5.46 |
| 357 | GreenBayPackers15_16 | -10.68 | 5.21 | -5.46 |
| 358 | TennesseeTitans7_8 | 5.53 | -11.07 | -5.55 |
| 359 | OaklandRaiders6_7 | -3.00 | -2.56 | -5.56 |
| 360 | NewYorkJets2_3 | -2.00 | -3.57 | -5.57 |
| 361 | BaltimoreRavens6_7 | 7.00 | -12.65 | -5.65 |
| 362 | DenverBroncos3_4 | -13.50 | 7.83 | -5.67 |
| 363 | OaklandRaiders9_10 | -9.00 | 3.29 | -5.71 |
| 364 | TampaBayBuccaneers1_2 | 5.68 | -11.46 | -5.79 |
| 365 | St.LouisRams11_12 | 0.53 | -6.64 | -6.11 |
| 366 | ArizonaCardinals15_16 | 8.69 | -14.86 | -6.16 |
| 367 | AtlantaFalcons6_7 | -13.50 | 7.29 | -6.21 |
| 368 | ChicagoBears11_12 | -3.97 | -2.31 | -6.29 |
| 369 | PittsburghSteelers15_16 | 12.31 | -18.65 | -6.34 |
| 370 | TennesseeTitans6_7 | 3.00 | -9.37 | -6.37 |
| 371 | DetroitLions2_3 | -16.00 | 9.61 | -6.39 |
| 372 | MiamiDolphins9_10 | -6.50 | -0.04 | -6.54 |
| 373 | MiamiDolphins8_9 | -4.49 | -2.20 | -6.69 |
| 374 | CarolinaPanthers1_2 | -4.99 | -1.71 | -6.70 |
| 375 | SanDiegoChargers8_9 | -8.00 | 1.28 | -6.72 |
| 376 | NewYorkJets6_7 | -7.00 | 0.22 | -6.78 |
| 377 | TampaBayBuccaneers15_16 | -3.01 | -3.81 | -6.82 |
| 378 | JacksonvilleJaguars16_17 | -3.03 | -3.98 | -7.00 |
| 379 | OaklandRaiders1_2 | -6.01 | -1.00 | -7.01 |
| 380 | OaklandRaiders13_14 | -19.00 | 11.94 | -7.06 |
| 381 | HoustonTexans3_4 | -8.00 | 0.91 | -7.09 |
| 382 | SanFrancisco49ers11_12 | -2.53 | -4.64 | -7.17 |
| 383 | WashingtonRedskins8_9 | -2.50 | -4.81 | -7.31 |
| 384 | AtlantaFalcons8_9 | 5.50 | -12.82 | -7.32 |
| 385 | NewOrleansSaints14_15 | -6.97 | -0.48 | -7.45 |
| 386 | BuffaloBills15_16 | -14.99 | 7.54 | -7.45 |
| 387 | BaltimoreRavens4_5 | -3.03 | -4.44 | -7.47 |
| 388 | KansasCityChiefs1_2 | -9.36 | 1.89 | -7.47 |
| 389 | BuffaloBills1_2 | -14.68 | 7.00 | -7.68 |
| 390 | BaltimoreRavens5_6 | 10.50 | -18.26 | -7.76 |
| 391 | DenverBroncos11_12 | -5.53 | -2.24 | -7.77 |
| 392 | NewOrleansSaints9_10 | -10.50 | 2.69 | -7.81 |
| 393 | AtlantaFalcons3_4 | -1.47 | -6.36 | -7.83 |
| 394 | DetroitLions5_6 | -12.00 | 4.17 | -7.83 |
| 395 | AtlantaFalcons5_6 | -14.00 | 6.17 | -7.83 |
| 396 | BaltimoreRavens12_13 | -16.47 | 8.59 | -7.89 |
| 397 | DetroitLions3_4 | -12.50 | 4.54 | -7.96 |
| 398 | SanFrancisco49ers9_10 | -14.00 | 6.04 | -7.96 |
| 399 | MinnesotaVikings9_10 | -13.50 | 5.41 | -8.09 |
| 400 | HoustonTexans8_9 | -6.03 | -2.07 | -8.09 |
| 401 | CincinnatiBengals13_14 | 1.00 | -9.14 | -8.14 |
| 402 | SeattleSeahawks4_5 | 2.47 | -10.76 | -8.28 |
| 403 | BuffaloBills14_15 | -12.50 | 4.21 | -8.29 |
| 404 | CincinnatiBengals6_7 | -4.97 | -3.33 | -8.31 |
| 405 | HoustonTexans5_6 | -8.50 | 0.16 | -8.34 |
| 406 | DetroitLions4_5 | -10.50 | 2.05 | -8.45 |
| 407 | KansasCityChiefs11_12 | -11.47 | 2.72 | -8.76 |
| 408 | AtlantaFalcons1_2 | -8.03 | -0.73 | -8.76 |
| 409 | MiamiDolphins3_4 | -10.50 | 1.72 | -8.78 |
| 410 | BaltimoreRavens10_11 | -10.50 | 1.43 | -9.07 |
| 411 | CarolinaPanthers11_12 | -6.97 | -2.13 | -9.11 |
| 412 | HoustonTexans6_7 | -11.00 | 1.72 | -9.28 |
| 413 | NewYorkJets10_11 | -14.00 | 4.69 | -9.31 |
| 414 | TennesseeTitans8_9 | -3.97 | -5.39 | -9.37 |
| 415 | OaklandRaiders7_8 | -5.50 | -3.98 | -9.48 |
| 416 | DetroitLions13_14 | -19.00 | 9.40 | -9.60 |
| 417 | ArizonaCardinals14_15 | -2.00 | -7.61 | -9.61 |
| 418 | AtlantaFalcons2_3 | -6.50 | -3.22 | -9.72 |
| 419 | CincinnatiBengals7_8 | -11.50 | 1.75 | -9.75 |
| 420 | OaklandRaiders14_15 | -22.50 | 12.66 | -9.84 |
| 421 | DetroitLions11_12 | -21.50 | 11.59 | -9.91 |
| 422 | SanFrancisco49ers8_9 | -11.03 | 1.09 | -9.94 |
| 423 | SanFrancisco49ers1_2 | 2.66 | -12.76 | -10.10 |
| 424 | ArizonaCardinals13_14 | -11.03 | 0.72 | -10.31 |
| 425 | HoustonTexans4_5 | -3.50 | -6.82 | -10.32 |
| 426 | DetroitLions10_11 | -11.47 | 1.10 | -10.37 |
| 427 | HoustonTexans11_12 | -6.03 | -4.45 | -10.48 |
| 428 | DenverBroncos7_8 | -21.50 | 10.87 | -10.63 |
| 429 | PittsburghSteelers16_17 | -4.32 | -6.33 | -10.66 |
| 430 | OaklandRaiders8_9 | -11.97 | 1.31 | -10.67 |
| 431 | SanFrancisco49ers5_6 | -10.00 | -0.78 | -10.78 |
| 432 | CarolinaPanthers7_8 | -18.50 | 7.61 | -10.89 |
| 433 | PittsburghSteelers10_11 | 0.00 | -10.98 | -10.98 |
| 434 | WashingtonRedskins7_8 | -18.03 | 6.86 | -11.17 |
| 435 | AtlantaFalcons9_10 | -8.50 | -2.67 | -11.17 |
| 436 | SanFrancisco49ers7_8 | -12.50 | 1.31 | -11.19 |
| 437 | BaltimoreRavens15_16 | -7.50 | -3.74 | -11.24 |
| 438 | MiamiDolphins4_5 | -10.50 | -0.75 | -11.25 |
| 439 | CincinnatiBengals12_13 | -2.50 | -8.79 | -11.29 |
| 440 | NewYorkJets9_10 | -2.97 | -8.67 | -11.64 |
| 441 | MiamiDolphins15_16 | -17.34 | 5.63 | -11.72 |
| 442 | KansasCityChiefs15_16 | -1.36 | -10.36 | -11.72 |
| 443 | WashingtonRedskins6_7 | -21.50 | 9.71 | -11.79 |
| 444 | CarolinaPanthers9_10 | -10.50 | -1.31 | -11.81 |
| 445 | ArizonaCardinals6_7 | -8.50 | -3.55 | -12.05 |
| 446 | KansasCityChiefs8_9 | -16.47 | 4.41 | -12.06 |
| 447 | SanFrancisco49ers6_7 | -19.50 | 7.42 | -12.08 |
| 448 | NewOrleansSaints3_4 | -12.97 | 0.83 | -12.15 |
| 449 | MiamiDolphins14_15 | -7.50 | -4.75 | -12.25 |
| 450 | KansasCityChiefs9_10 | -9.50 | -2.81 | -12.31 |
| 451 | TampaBayBuccaneers16_17 | -12.31 | -0.06 | -12.36 |
| 452 | ChicagoBears3_4 | -17.00 | 4.50 | -12.50 |
| 453 | BuffaloBills9_10 | -21.50 | 8.95 | -12.55 |
| 454 | NewYorkJets7_8 | -8.50 | -4.07 | -12.57 |
| 455 | OaklandRaiders15_16 | -25.50 | 12.79 | -12.71 |
| 456 | TennesseeTitans11_12 | -10.50 | -2.22 | -12.72 |
| 457 | DetroitLions15_16 | -8.00 | -4.95 | -12.95 |
| 458 | CarolinaPanthers10_11 | -19.50 | 6.41 | -13.09 |
| 459 | DenverBroncos5_6 | -20.47 | 7.37 | -13.11 |
| 460 | HoustonTexans7_8 | -13.50 | 0.35 | -13.15 |
| 461 | St.LouisRams12_13 | 1.50 | -14.99 | -13.49 |
| 462 | TennesseeTitans9_10 | -14.50 | 0.89 | -13.61 |
| 463 | SanFrancisco49ers12_13 | -18.50 | 4.73 | -13.77 |
| 464 | BaltimoreRavens7_8 | -15.03 | 1.22 | -13.81 |
| 465 | ArizonaCardinals5_6 | -6.00 | -7.89 | -13.89 |
| 466 | St.LouisRams3_4 | -21.53 | 6.96 | -14.57 |
| 467 | SanFrancisco49ers2_3 | -7.03 | -7.60 | -14.63 |
| 468 | DetroitLions14_15 | -16.00 | 1.29 | -14.71 |
| 469 | St.LouisRams4_5 | -15.50 | 0.64 | -14.86 |
| 470 | BaltimoreRavens9_10 | -11.47 | -3.40 | -14.88 |
| 471 | NewYorkJets8_9 | -9.47 | -5.57 | -15.05 |
| 472 | St.LouisRams7_8 | -17.00 | 1.87 | -15.13 |
| 473 | St.LouisRams2_3 | -11.00 | -4.40 | -15.40 |
| 474 | DenverBroncos4_5 | -28.00 | 12.57 | -15.43 |
| 475 | KansasCityChiefs14_15 | -7.00 | -8.77 | -15.77 |
| 476 | St.LouisRams13_14 | -14.00 | -2.36 | -16.36 |
| 477 | MiamiDolphins13_14 | -7.50 | -8.90 | -16.40 |
| 478 | BaltimoreRavens13_14 | -15.00 | -1.50 | -16.50 |
| 479 | NewOrleansSaints2_3 | -17.00 | 0.23 | -16.77 |
| 480 | BuffaloBills10_11 | -34.00 | 17.18 | -16.82 |
| 481 | SeattleSeahawks5_6 | -16.00 | -1.01 | -17.01 |
| 482 | BaltimoreRavens14_15 | -10.53 | -6.65 | -17.18 |
| 483 | NewOrleansSaints1_2 | -18.69 | 1.14 | -17.55 |
| 484 | AtlantaFalcons10_11 | -23.97 | 6.34 | -17.63 |
| 485 | AtlantaFalcons14_15 | -15.53 | -2.62 | -18.15 |
| 486 | CarolinaPanthers8_9 | -10.00 | -8.35 | -18.35 |
| 487 | AtlantaFalcons11_12 | -15.00 | -3.43 | -18.43 |
| 488 | MiamiDolphins11_12 | -15.00 | -3.78 | -18.78 |
| 489 | St.LouisRams1_2 | -8.31 | -10.48 | -18.78 |
| 490 | St.LouisRams5_6 | -11.00 | -7.89 | -18.89 |
| 491 | St.LouisRams14_15 | -20.97 | 1.56 | -19.41 |
| 492 | TennesseeTitans10_11 | -18.53 | -0.99 | -19.51 |
| 493 | SanFrancisco49ers4_5 | -13.97 | -5.78 | -19.75 |
| 494 | BaltimoreRavens8_9 | -22.50 | 1.16 | -21.34 |
| 495 | SanFrancisco49ers3_4 | -20.50 | -1.03 | -21.53 |
| 496 | KansasCityChiefs12_13 | -24.00 | 2.03 | -21.97 |
| 497 | AtlantaFalcons12_13 | -16.00 | -6.09 | -22.09 |
| 498 | St.LouisRams6_7 | -20.03 | -3.61 | -23.63 |
| 499 | KansasCityChiefs13_14 | -21.50 | -2.18 | -23.68 |
| 500 | MiamiDolphins12_13 | -24.00 | -0.63 | -24.63 |
| 501 | St.LouisRams15_16 | -21.99 | -3.30 | -25.29 |
| 502 | AtlantaFalcons13_14 | -27.00 | 0.13 | -26.87 |
Obviously, I haven't undertaken this task for every season in NFL history, but I think this is an interesting way of looking at what Chase was talking about. Now, the question still remains as to whether a team's point differentials in any given week represent their "true talent" at that point in time, or if I've simply introduced an absurd amount of randomness into the process. I suppose, then, that this is more "retrodictive" than anything else, since it's by definition trying to determine how good a team was at a certain point in the past.
Anyway, here's another crazy (mis?)application of the SRS... The standard SRS for this season (with an adjustment for HFA) looks like this:
| Rank | Team | MOV | SOS | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NewOrleansSaints | 18.50 | 1.37 | 19.87 |
| 2 | NewEnglandPatriots | 13.90 | 1.04 | 14.94 |
| 3 | IndianapolisColts | 17.45 | -4.44 | 13.01 |
| 4 | DenverBroncos | 11.17 | 1.24 | 12.40 |
| 5 | NewYorkJets | 7.05 | 1.89 | 8.94 |
| 6 | BaltimoreRavens | 6.50 | 1.83 | 8.33 |
| 7 | CincinnatiBengals | 4.81 | 3.06 | 7.87 |
| 8 | AtlantaFalcons | 5.00 | 2.79 | 7.79 |
| 9 | MiamiDolphins | -1.45 | 8.68 | 7.23 |
| 10 | GreenBayPackers | 10.83 | -4.36 | 6.47 |
| 11 | ArizonaCardinals | 4.50 | 1.95 | 6.45 |
| 12 | MinnesotaVikings | 8.48 | -2.92 | 5.56 |
| 13 | DallasCowboys | 6.67 | -2.57 | 4.10 |
| 14 | NewYorkGiants | 7.62 | -3.62 | 4.00 |
| 15 | SanDiegoChargers | 3.00 | 0.78 | 3.78 |
| 16 | PittsburghSteelers | 5.24 | -2.14 | 3.09 |
| 17 | SanFrancisco49ers | 1.83 | -0.13 | 1.70 |
| 18 | ChicagoBears | -2.05 | 2.46 | 0.42 |
| 19 | SeattleSeahawks | 1.05 | -0.96 | 0.09 |
| 20 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 7.83 | -7.92 | -0.09 |
| 21 | HoustonTexans | 1.09 | -1.32 | -0.22 |
| 22 | BuffaloBills | -3.38 | 2.07 | -1.31 |
| 23 | JacksonvilleJaguars | -4.50 | -2.37 | -6.87 |
| 24 | ClevelandBrowns | -15.09 | 6.06 | -9.03 |
| 25 | DetroitLions | -14.17 | 3.64 | -10.53 |
| 26 | CarolinaPanthers | -8.50 | -3.15 | -11.65 |
| 27 | KansasCityChiefs | -11.05 | -1.10 | -12.15 |
| 28 | TennesseeTitans | -18.55 | 5.48 | -13.07 |
| 29 | WashingtonRedskins | -4.05 | -9.52 | -13.57 |
| 30 | OaklandRaiders | -16.62 | 2.38 | -14.24 |
| 31 | TampaBayBuccaneers | -15.29 | -0.51 | -15.80 |
| 32 | St.LouisRams | -21.38 | 0.91 | -20.46 |
But what if we disregarded points and simply looked at total yards and turnovers for/against? I regressed points onto yards and turnovers, and came up with this equation: predicted_pts = (0.0773893288884591 * total_yards) - (2.54153631954305 * turnovers). Then I treated the results the same as I would point totals and plugged them into the SRS, getting these rankings:
| Rank | Team | MOV-2 | SOS-2 | SRS-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NewOrleansSaints | 12.73 | 2.28 | 15.01 |
| 2 | NewEnglandPatriots | 12.02 | 0.21 | 12.22 |
| 3 | DenverBroncos | 11.18 | -0.72 | 10.46 |
| 4 | NewYorkGiants | 11.01 | -1.84 | 9.17 |
| 5 | GreenBayPackers | 12.35 | -4.26 | 8.09 |
| 6 | IndianapolisColts | 10.92 | -3.09 | 7.84 |
| 7 | BaltimoreRavens | 5.53 | -0.43 | 5.10 |
| 8 | PhiladelphiaEagles | 8.50 | -3.91 | 4.59 |
| 9 | DallasCowboys | 4.69 | -0.26 | 4.43 |
| 10 | NewYorkJets | 3.33 | 1.00 | 4.33 |
| 11 | MiamiDolphins | -0.04 | 4.17 | 4.13 |
| 12 | PittsburghSteelers | 5.75 | -2.72 | 3.03 |
| 13 | SanDiegoChargers | 2.78 | 0.16 | 2.94 |
| 14 | MinnesotaVikings | 4.64 | -2.34 | 2.31 |
| 15 | CincinnatiBengals | 0.44 | 1.58 | 2.02 |
| 16 | ArizonaCardinals | 0.34 | 0.87 | 1.20 |
| 17 | HoustonTexans | 2.41 | -2.79 | -0.37 |
| 18 | AtlantaFalcons | -2.25 | 1.48 | -0.77 |
| 19 | ChicagoBears | -2.83 | 0.69 | -2.15 |
| 20 | JacksonvilleJaguars | -0.43 | -2.11 | -2.53 |
| 21 | SeattleSeahawks | -2.23 | -1.82 | -4.05 |
| 22 | DetroitLions | -7.70 | 3.51 | -4.20 |
| 23 | BuffaloBills | -5.92 | 1.59 | -4.33 |
| 24 | SanFrancisco49ers | -2.82 | -2.02 | -4.84 |
| 25 | CarolinaPanthers | -3.63 | -1.31 | -4.94 |
| 26 | WashingtonRedskins | -2.21 | -3.04 | -5.25 |
| 27 | TampaBayBuccaneers | -8.79 | 2.27 | -6.51 |
| 28 | TennesseeTitans | -10.92 | 4.09 | -6.84 |
| 29 | KansasCityChiefs | -10.10 | 1.16 | -8.93 |
| 30 | St.LouisRams | -10.65 | 0.22 | -10.43 |
| 31 | OaklandRaiders | -16.00 | 3.17 | -12.84 |
| 32 | ClevelandBrowns | -16.92 | 3.81 | -13.11 |
The problem with this method is that yards and turnovers only explain about 53% of the variation in points scored/allowed -- the rest are attributable to special teams, starting field position, the ability to string together first downs, etc. So all things being equal, I'd bank on the standard SRS long before I used the yards/TOs method for any purpose but fun. Still, it's interesting to see which teams look better/worse than their point differential when you judge just on total yardage and turnovers.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 28th, 2009 at 1:13 PM and filed under Insane ideas, Simple Rating System, Statgeekery. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Skip to the end and leave a response. Trackbacks are closed.
"The problem with this method is that yards and turnovers only explain about 53% of the variation in points scored/allowed -- the rest are attributable to special teams, starting field position, the ability to string together first downs, etc. So all things being equal, I'd bank on the standard SRS long before I used the yards/TOs method for any purpose but fun. Still, it's interesting to see which teams look better/worse than their point differential when you judge just on total yardage and turnovers."
I will note that yards/turnovers are, IIRC, as good a predictor of future wins as points are... and perhaps better. Using yards/turnovers, one can use a Bayesian system to regress the yards & turnovers numbers to create a best projection going forward, and then run the regression on that.
Posted on 28-Oct-09 at 2:55 pm | PermalinkI think a two week SRS isn't terribly useful -- There's no memory of weeks past. To have something change rapidly based on recent results, I think it'd make more sense to use long, weighted SRS, sort of like an exponential moving average. Take your last 16 games, and include more copies of the recent games in your SRS calculation, something like this:
Most Recent
---
15 copies
13 copies
1 copies
9 copies
7 copies
6 copies
5 copies
4 copies
4 copies
3 copies
2 copies
2 copies
2 copies
1 copy
1 copy
1 copy
---
Least recent
Now more than half the "weight" of your SRS number is from the last 4 games, but you still retain the memory of previous results.
Posted on 28-Oct-09 at 9:53 pm | PermalinkErr, third most recent is supposed to be 10 copies, not 1. It was just 1.2 * previous week, rounded at the end.
Posted on 28-Oct-09 at 9:55 pm | PermalinkThe issue with this post isn't the choice to just use 2 games in SRS. It's the fact that the data presented is worthless. All well and good to know that the Patriots were better than the NFL for the bulk of weeks 5-10, and that they fell off after 12, but knowing the league, this should have been obvious beforehand. They should have lost to the Ravens that lost to the Dolphins that went 1-15.
Posted on 28-Oct-09 at 10:41 pm | PermalinkMore importantly, though, simply knowing that the Patriots were beasts in 2007 doesn't tell me how many NFL teams were worth mentioning in best team ever talks. Also, if you're trying to look at their value in each game, you throw in sets of three and sets of 4 to test the weight of each game.
Geez, Brian, I said I haven't had a chance to do this for other seasons yet. I just thought I'd post what I did for 2007, since that season was the focus of Chase's post. Good grief...
Posted on 28-Oct-09 at 11:11 pm | PermalinkWait a minute... We get pictures now? I think the geeky-rating of this site took a major hit here. I mean going from 1's and 0's to actual letters is one thing - but now THIS?! Geeez...
Posted on 29-Oct-09 at 9:41 am | PermalinkWait - are you sure the coefficient should be 0.0773893288884591 I think it should be 0.0773893288884554
Posted on 29-Oct-09 at 9:47 am | PermalinkI think Mattie has a good point with the weighting idea--I know Football Outsiders does this with their DVOA--I believe that it goes 10 games back. In other words, after week 12 (11 games plus the bye), it basically "forgets" about week 1.
Posted on 29-Oct-09 at 9:54 am | PermalinkRichie - yeah, that's me being lazy and breaking the cardinal rule of "never run a regression in Excel".
Posted on 29-Oct-09 at 10:04 am | PermalinkPerhaps worthless was harsh, as that's not how I meant it. I meant to comment on a complaint that the work didn't mean anything because of a limited sample size. I was simply saying that in the grand spectrum of things, this information isn't effective because it's just long form of something we already realized. Personal stance is that the level of talent rises every decade(due in part to more talent being better talent and more teams for young talent to look good on), so the New England Patriots of 2007 would probably beat the 49ers that went 15-1 even with the new rule sets(though it'd be close). But it's very possible they were a more dominant team, and comparing the two would create a point where the data is important.
Posted on 29-Oct-09 at 11:32 am | PermalinkNo problem, Brian. I'm working on a follow-up that will have more great teams from the past -- so far, the 1940 Bears' peak (killing the Redskins 73-0, on the road, in the NFL Championship game) was the most dominant showing ever, with a two-game SRS over +35. So if we assume that talent levels don't increase (clearly not true, but sometimes it's more fun that way), the 1940 NFL Championship Game Bears would be favored by a TD against the Patriots of Week 9 or so of the 2007 season on a neutral field. I find those kinds of statements, while completely unprovable and borderline absurd, still incredibly cool.
Posted on 29-Oct-09 at 11:40 am | PermalinkAh, I missed a something when I first read this. The idea is more interesting now that I've thought more about what you're doing. I thought you were simply isolating all "week 8-9" games and doing SRS, and so on... but you've got them all connected.
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 8:21 am | PermalinkAh, think I found a problem with your code. It's dividing by 2 rather than the number of games. The miniTeams around the bye week will only have one game. For example:
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 12:04 am | Permalink.
The Pats 10_11 has one bye and one 46 point victory @ Buffalo. You've got MOV at 24.5, but it should be double that, 49 (46+HFA)
.
When I run 2007 using 3 point HFA, here's the top 10 I get:
NWE 2007.11 +49.00 | -11.27 | +37.73
DAL 2007.09 +24.00 | +07.69 | +31.69
CLT 2007.07 +25.00 | +03.86 | +28.86
GNB 2007.19 +19.00 | +09.80 | +28.80
NWE 2007.08 +33.00 | -06.62 | +26.38
NWE 2007.07 +24.00 | +02.33 | +26.33
DAL 2007.10 +19.00 | +06.95 | +25.95
NYG 2007.21 +05.00 | +20.49 | +25.49
MIN 2007.13 +28.00 | -03.13 | +24.87
NWE 2007.12 +24.50 | -00.80 | +23.70
Correction, it'd have two "games" rather than 4. One against BUF 10_11 and one against BUF 11_12.
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 12:15 am | Permalink.
Ah, also found a bug in my own code -- It's including NWE 1_1 for instance. I'll have to fix that.
It's by game #, not week #, though. So I've got 2007_nwe_10_11 playing 4 games -- 2 ties (0.0) vs. 2007_phi_10_11 & 2007_phi_11_12, and 2 +49.0 games vs. 2007_buf_10_11 and 2007_buf_9_10 -- which average out to +24.5.
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 12:24 am | PermalinkAhhh! Makes sense now. My mistake.
And I thought I was clever 
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 1:19 am | PermalinkOkay, fixed that. Now MOV comes out the same, though it looks like there's some rounding errors in yours...? NWE 9-10 should be 28.0, not 29.97.
Even ignoring that though, I still don't get quite the same answers. When I calculate it, I get an SOS of ~0.169 instead of 0.36. During iterations 30-60, it's close to 0.36 but then slowly drops after that. It takes over 300 iterations to settle down to a few significant digits though. Is your function perhaps not iterating enough for things to settle down entirely? Or have I got something else weird going on?
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 2:06 am | PermalinkNWE 2007.09_10 +28.00 | +00.17 | +28.17
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 2:10 am | PermalinkNWE 2007.01_02 +23.00 | +04.27 | +27.27
NWE 2007.07_08 +33.00 | -05.76 | +27.24
NWE 2007.02_03 +24.50 | +02.46 | +26.96
NWE 2007.08_09 +24.50 | +01.84 | +26.34
NWE 2007.06_07 +24.00 | +02.12 | +26.12
GNB 2007.01_02 +16.67 | +09.40 | +26.07
NWE 2007.05_06 +19.00 | +05.73 | +24.73
NYG 2007.03_04 +10.00 | +14.56 | +24.56
CLT 2007.06_07 +26.00 | -01.72 | +24.28
What HFA value were you using? I didn't use the same one here as I did in the other 2-game stretch article -- here it was 2.974, but it was 3.0333 in the other one (instead of using the specific season's HFA there, I used the avg. HFA for every game in NFL history). That doesn't sound like much, but it could account for what you thought were rounding errors. As far as the SOS values, I can't say -- I'm using Excel's iterative/circular function, and I had it set to a maximum change of 0.000001, so I don't know where the problem is coming from.
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 8:15 am | PermalinkThat explains what I thought was rounding error
Changing HFA, iterations, or weeks used per mini-team is absurdly easy with it.
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 11:51 am | Permalink.
I don't know enough about Excel's iterative functions, but I'm pretty sure my code is correct now. The SOS for New England 9-10 looks like this as it iterates
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2712/4074917801_ff1bd10669_o.png
.
Perhaps is it looking at a specific SOS of some other team that stops changing earlier than the New England one? Or perhaps because it may have achieved a similar SOS as a previous iteration that isn't the most recent one causing a premature cutoff? If you're a programming sort of person, you're more than welcome to the code (C#). It's just using the data from PFR anyway
.
Or if not, I've already had it calculate the scores for every team since the merger and I'd be happy to supply you with a CSV file with the unsorted raw results...