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Crazy Fun With SRS

Posted by Neil Paine on October 28, 2009

24959908_Jaguars_v_PatriotsBear with me while I throw two crazy SRS variations out there at you...

First: In the wake of Super Bowl XLII (while I was still weeping, if I recall correctly), Chase wrote this super-philosophical post about there not being a greatest team ever -- that the '07 Patriots might have been the GOAT early in the season when they were blowing the doors off of everybody, but by the time the Giants faced them in SBXLII, that team no longer resembled the team that was being billed as the most dominant ever a few months before. Likewise, the Giants were playing really well by the time January and February rolled around, and were far superior to the sorta mediocre version that trotted out on the field early in the season. So according to Chase's logic, it wasn't like you could really pinpoint "The 2007 Patriots" or "The 2007 Giants", because those two teams didn't actually exist.

As Chase put it:

I don't think the 2007 Patriots really existed. Not to get too philosophical in a football blog post, but the 2007 Patriots aren't really a team; they're a collection of 19 teams. Each game the Patriots played featured a different Patriots squad. Was Richard Seymour on the 2008 Patriots? Well if you ask the Cincinnati Bengals they might say no, since he was out for that game. Was Rosevelt Colvin on the team? He played in the first eleven games, but not the last eight. The Patriots team that played the Redskins was not the same team that struggled with the Jets late in the season. Even a casual observer could tell that.I've seen it written that this Giants team beat maybe the greatest team of all time. Hogwash! They didn't beat the Patriots of weeks 1-11; they beat a Patriots team that struggled to win at home against a 11-5 team playing without the best running back in the league, the best tight end in the league, and with a QB on one leg. The Chargers allowed 18 PPG this year; in New England -- the greatest offense ever -- San Diego allowed 21 points. Does that sound like the greatest team in league history to you? Because it doesn't to me. When that Chargers team was fully healthy, San Diego got destroyed by the Patriots in week two. Why? Because the week two New England team may very well have been the greatest team of all time. The playoffs version wasn't very close to the greatest team of all time. The week before the Pats made David Garrard look like Steve Young, and the wildcard Jags stood toe-to-toe with the Pats in that game. A win is a win, of course, but when we're discussing the greatest team of all time, wouldn't you expect something a bit more dominant?

It sounds impressive to write that the Giants knocked off an 18-0 team, a previously unbeaten team, arguably the greatest team of all time. It sounds less impressive, but no less accurate, to write that the Giants beat a team that limped into the Super Bowl, one that was a shell of its former self. They beat a team that made the Super Bowl following a pair of home wins by a combined 20 points, against one-dimensional teams.

And had New England won against the Giants, what would that have told us? That they beat New York barely, instead of losing to New York barely, like the Packers and Cowboys did. Are the 2007 Packers or 2007 Cowboys going to be on anyone's top 50 list of the greatest football teams of all time? Of course not. The Giants may have stopped New England from earning the label "best team ever", but the Giants did *not* beat the best team ever. They beat a very good team, and that's that.

[...]

Without a formula, or a guideline, or some criteria, I don't know how we can have a greatest team ever. I think the 2007 Patriots I saw, from weeks 1-11, were one of the greatest teams I ever saw. I also think the 2004 Steelers, when they beat the eventual Super Bowl competitors in consecutive weeks by 38 points, were one of the greatest teams I ever saw. How exactly would I compare those teams? Is a two game sample too short? A ten game sample? There aren't any rules on this, as far as I know. If every game, every team, truly is different, then maybe December 8th, 1940 saw the greatest team in football history play, when the Bears beat the Redskins 73-0.

Okay, well what if we had a formula -- not for every team ever yet, but within a season? Like, maybe the SRS?

Obviously, we can't run the SRS on single-game samples, because it requires multiple opponents to "work". But what if we broke each team-season down into 15 to 19 "mini-teams" based on 2-game stretches of the season? Like, the Patriots' win over the Jets in Week 1 of the 2007 season would be part of the "New England Games 1-2" team, and so would their win against the Chargers the next week. And that Chargers team would be part of the "San Diego Games 2-3" team, who played "Green Bay Games 3-4" the next week, who played "Minnesota Games 4-5" the week after that... and so on and so forth. Now, every "team" connects to every other team, just like in the regular SRS, but we've also isolated team performance down to the most specific time period possible using the SRS method.

As a matter of fact, I did this for the 2007 season:

Rank Team MOV SOS SRS
1 NewEnglandPatriots9_10 27.97 0.36 28.34
2 NewEnglandPatriots7_8 33.00 -5.33 27.67
3 NewEnglandPatriots1_2 23.01 4.24 27.25
4 NewEnglandPatriots2_3 24.53 2.43 26.96
5 NewEnglandPatriots6_7 23.97 2.55 26.53
6 NewEnglandPatriots8_9 24.50 1.97 26.47
7 GreenBayPackers1_2 16.66 9.41 26.06
8 NewEnglandPatriots5_6 19.00 5.82 24.82
9 NewYorkGiants3_4 10.00 14.56 24.56
10 IndianapolisColts6_7 25.97 -1.70 24.27
11 NewEnglandPatriots3_4 26.00 -2.36 23.64
12 IndianapolisColts5_6 20.50 2.28 22.78
13 MinnesotaVikings11_12 28.00 -5.52 22.48
14 DetroitLions7_8 23.00 -0.73 22.27
15 NewEnglandPatriots4_5 19.00 2.93 21.93
16 GreenBayPackers2_3 14.50 7.09 21.59
17 DallasCowboys8_9 18.97 2.52 21.50
18 SanDiegoChargers5_6 26.00 -4.66 21.34
19 IndianapolisColts7_8 10.00 11.06 21.06
20 WashingtonRedskins14_15 14.47 6.35 20.82
21 NewEnglandPatriots10_11 24.50 -3.80 20.70
22 DallasCowboys2_3 23.47 -3.53 19.95
23 DallasCowboys11_12 17.53 2.22 19.75
24 DallasCowboys7_8 15.50 3.93 19.43
25 WashingtonRedskins1_2 7.32 11.55 18.87
26 SanDiegoChargers14_15 25.53 -7.53 18.00
27 PittsburghSteelers1_2 23.34 -5.36 17.98
28 PhiladelphiaEagles3_4 11.00 6.85 17.85
29 JacksonvilleJaguars12_13 14.00 3.85 17.85
30 JacksonvilleJaguars13_14 19.00 -1.33 17.67
31 MinnesotaVikings12_13 26.00 -8.34 17.66
32 WashingtonRedskins15_16 16.00 1.66 17.66
33 JacksonvilleJaguars14_15 22.50 -5.04 17.46
34 DallasCowboys1_2 15.66 1.75 17.41
35 NewYorkGiants19_20 4.49 12.73 17.22
36 NewYorkGiants4_5 9.03 8.16 17.19
37 WashingtonRedskins2_3 0.50 16.50 17.00
38 GreenBayPackers8_9 22.50 -5.83 16.67
39 PhiladelphiaEagles2_3 10.53 5.38 15.91
40 DallasCowboys10_11 15.03 0.20 15.23
41 SanDiegoChargers13_14 21.50 -6.82 14.68
42 IndianapolisColts12_13 13.50 1.01 14.51
43 ChicagoBears15_16 18.36 -3.87 14.49
44 DallasCowboys3_4 26.00 -11.53 14.47
45 GreenBayPackers12_13 10.50 3.84 14.34
46 WashingtonRedskins3_4 9.03 5.12 14.15
47 ChicagoBears14_15 10.50 3.59 14.09
48 DetroitLions8_9 13.50 0.59 14.09
49 JacksonvilleJaguars4_5 15.00 -1.02 13.98
50 WashingtonRedskins13_14 10.00 3.96 13.96
51 NewYorkGiants5_6 16.00 -2.12 13.88
52 MinnesotaVikings13_14 13.50 0.23 13.73
53 SanDiegoChargers6_7 16.53 -2.84 13.69
54 HoustonTexans13_14 13.03 0.32 13.34
55 PhiladelphiaEagles1_2 -7.32 20.64 13.32
56 JacksonvilleJaguars3_4 12.47 0.85 13.32
57 GreenBayPackers13_14 25.00 -11.70 13.30
58 NewEnglandPatriots18_19 1.51 11.72 13.24
59 GreenBayPackers16_17 18.53 -5.36 13.17
60 JacksonvilleJaguars15_16 19.68 -6.61 13.06
61 KansasCityChiefs3_4 8.50 4.50 13.00
62 NewOrleansSaints7_8 19.00 -6.29 12.71
63 KansasCityChiefs4_5 2.00 10.69 12.69
64 SanDiegoChargers17_18 7.50 4.89 12.39
65 GreenBayPackers17_18 2.36 9.86 12.22
66 NewYorkGiants2_3 -7.50 19.70 12.20
67 GreenBayPackers9_10 21.03 -8.98 12.04
68 MinnesotaVikings10_11 15.50 -3.49 12.01
69 IndianapolisColts14_15 15.00 -3.04 11.96
70 DallasCowboys9_10 8.00 3.70 11.70
71 NewEnglandPatriots13_14 12.53 -0.84 11.69
72 IndianapolisColts4_5 15.53 -3.93 11.60
73 GreenBayPackers3_4 7.00 4.45 11.45
74 SanDiegoChargers4_5 12.00 -0.71 11.29
75 ArizonaCardinals9_10 9.00 2.15 11.15
76 SeattleSeahawks12_13 12.50 -1.64 10.86
77 IndianapolisColts15_16 5.53 5.28 10.80
78 JacksonvilleJaguars11_12 9.50 1.07 10.57
79 SanDiegoChargers15_16 16.68 -6.18 10.50
80 TampaBayBuccaneers10_11 15.00 -4.59 10.41
81 NewYorkGiants6_7 19.50 -9.22 10.28
82 PhiladelphiaEagles14_15 12.47 -2.21 10.26
83 SanDiegoChargers16_17 12.00 -1.85 10.15
84 NewYorkGiants18_19 6.47 3.67 10.14
85 NewEnglandPatriots17_18 7.03 2.74 9.76
86 IndianapolisColts8_9 -3.00 12.76 9.76
87 NewEnglandPatriots16_17 6.66 3.04 9.70
88 WashingtonRedskins4_5 14.00 -4.34 9.66
89 MinnesotaVikings14_15 -4.97 14.40 9.43
90 TampaBayBuccaneers11_12 5.00 4.40 9.40
91 SanDiegoChargers2_3 -12.53 21.81 9.29
92 DetroitLions6_7 8.00 1.28 9.28
93 HoustonTexans1_2 15.32 -6.05 9.27
94 IndianapolisColts1_2 12.66 -3.40 9.26
95 PhiladelphiaEagles4_5 -0.03 9.27 9.24
96 WashingtonRedskins10_11 -2.53 11.68 9.16
97 JacksonvilleJaguars10_11 11.53 -2.42 9.10
98 SeattleSeahawks16_17 9.00 0.09 9.09
99 TampaBayBuccaneers9_10 15.50 -6.42 9.08
100 TennesseeTitans16_17 0.47 8.53 9.00
101 SeattleSeahawks9_10 12.53 -3.75 8.78
102 OaklandRaiders4_5 4.97 3.75 8.72
103 IndianapolisColts11_12 10.50 -1.91 8.59
104 MinnesotaVikings5_6 -0.53 9.09 8.57
105 NewEnglandPatriots15_16 12.00 -3.52 8.48
106 SeattleSeahawks11_12 7.47 0.95 8.43
107 NewEnglandPatriots12_13 12.00 -3.68 8.32
108 NewOrleansSaints11_12 10.50 -2.34 8.16
109 IndianapolisColts13_14 18.47 -10.32 8.15
110 IndianapolisColts2_3 6.97 1.16 8.13
111 SeattleSeahawks8_9 10.50 -2.56 7.94
112 PhiladelphiaEagles15_16 13.66 -5.91 7.75
113 PittsburghSteelers7_8 21.00 -13.30 7.70
114 ClevelandBrowns4_5 -1.50 9.19 7.69
115 NewYorkGiants15_16 7.00 0.61 7.61
116 JacksonvilleJaguars9_10 11.00 -3.46 7.54
117 ChicagoBears7_8 -3.00 10.46 7.46
118 TennesseeTitans15_16 5.00 2.37 7.37
119 PhiladelphiaEagles11_12 -3.50 10.84 7.34
120 NewYorkGiants14_15 2.50 4.76 7.26
121 TampaBayBuccaneers3_4 17.00 -9.82 7.18
122 ClevelandBrowns5_6 -3.50 10.52 7.02
123 OaklandRaiders3_4 10.00 -3.08 6.92
124 SanDiegoChargers1_2 -11.34 18.26 6.92
125 PhiladelphiaEagles10_11 3.50 3.34 6.84
126 PittsburghSteelers2_3 19.03 -12.26 6.77
127 DallasCowboys6_7 -8.47 15.13 6.65
128 DallasCowboys12_13 5.50 1.13 6.63
129 ArizonaCardinals8_9 1.50 4.87 6.37
130 TampaBayBuccaneers4_5 -0.03 6.27 6.24
131 SanDiegoChargers18_19 -1.69 7.93 6.23
132 DallasCowboys4_5 14.50 -8.28 6.22
133 NewEnglandPatriots14_15 12.53 -6.33 6.20
134 SanDiegoChargers10_11 5.50 0.69 6.19
135 NewYorkGiants12_13 6.97 -0.80 6.18
136 PhiladelphiaEagles6_7 2.00 4.17 6.17
137 St.LouisRams9_10 8.97 -2.88 6.09
138 IndianapolisColts3_4 12.00 -5.96 6.04
139 ChicagoBears6_7 0.00 5.66 5.66
140 SeattleSeahawks10_11 6.00 -0.47 5.53
141 NewYorkGiants13_14 -4.50 9.95 5.45
142 MiamiDolphins1_2 -13.32 18.74 5.42
143 PittsburghSteelers8_9 14.03 -8.78 5.25
144 DetroitLions1_2 6.01 -0.78 5.23
145 ClevelandBrowns3_4 6.00 -0.92 5.08
146 ChicagoBears13_14 -4.53 9.57 5.04
147 PhiladelphiaEagles9_10 9.00 -3.99 5.01
148 GreenBayPackers11_12 3.47 1.52 5.00
149 GreenBayPackers7_8 11.47 -6.60 4.88
150 NewOrleansSaints6_7 13.50 -8.63 4.87
151 SanDiegoChargers11_12 16.00 -11.15 4.85
152 ChicagoBears8_9 1.00 3.80 4.80
153 ChicagoBears5_6 2.00 2.63 4.63
154 TennesseeTitans2_3 7.50 -2.88 4.62
155 ClevelandBrowns7_8 5.00 -0.39 4.61
156 SanDiegoChargers12_13 12.97 -8.43 4.55
157 ChicagoBears9_10 4.97 -0.52 4.46
158 HoustonTexans2_3 3.50 0.87 4.37
159 NewOrleansSaints10_11 8.97 -4.73 4.24
160 SeattleSeahawks7_8 12.00 -7.77 4.23
161 SanDiegoChargers3_4 -10.50 14.68 4.18
162 PhiladelphiaEagles7_8 -7.00 11.12 4.12
163 PhiladelphiaEagles5_6 2.00 2.11 4.11
164 HoustonTexans9_10 10.00 -5.93 4.07
165 ClevelandBrowns6_7 8.50 -4.60 3.90
166 MinnesotaVikings4_5 -2.00 5.80 3.80
167 PhiladelphiaEagles13_14 0.50 3.26 3.76
168 ClevelandBrowns13_14 7.00 -3.43 3.57
169 TampaBayBuccaneers12_13 -2.03 5.48 3.45
170 NewYorkJets4_5 -4.03 7.47 3.45
171 JacksonvilleJaguars5_6 -3.97 7.36 3.38
172 NewEnglandPatriots11_12 3.00 0.37 3.37
173 MinnesotaVikings15_16 -9.32 12.57 3.25
174 SeattleSeahawks13_14 9.00 -5.81 3.19
175 DallasCowboys14_15 1.50 1.63 3.13
176 ClevelandBrowns8_9 0.00 3.05 3.05
177 MinnesotaVikings7_8 2.53 0.44 2.97
178 SanDiegoChargers9_10 -2.50 5.44 2.94
179 NewOrleansSaints8_9 1.53 1.40 2.93
180 TampaBayBuccaneers14_15 16.00 -13.16 2.84
181 OaklandRaiders11_12 8.50 -5.67 2.83
182 TennesseeTitans1_2 -1.32 4.05 2.73
183 HoustonTexans15_16 -4.50 7.21 2.71
184 NewYorkGiants1_2 -18.99 21.69 2.70
185 MinnesotaVikings1_2 5.99 -3.31 2.68
186 ClevelandBrowns2_3 2.00 0.65 2.65
187 PittsburghSteelers14_15 5.00 -2.39 2.61
188 TampaBayBuccaneers13_14 10.00 -7.56 2.44
189 PhiladelphiaEagles8_9 -6.50 8.93 2.43
190 NewYorkGiants16_17 0.34 1.94 2.28
191 GreenBayPackers6_7 4.50 -2.26 2.24
192 SeattleSeahawks17_18 -6.68 8.90 2.23
193 CincinnatiBengals15_16 6.68 -4.48 2.20
194 NewYorkGiants9_10 -2.50 4.69 2.19
195 SeattleSeahawks15_16 12.01 -9.85 2.16
196 TennesseeTitans3_4 12.00 -9.87 2.13
197 NewYorkJets5_6 -9.00 11.10 2.10
198 WashingtonRedskins9_10 -6.50 8.59 2.09
199 CincinnatiBengals10_11 7.53 -5.47 2.05
200 HoustonTexans14_15 -2.50 4.53 2.03
201 MinnesotaVikings2_3 -0.03 2.02 1.99
202 DallasCowboys5_6 -10.00 11.92 1.92
203 KansasCityChiefs6_7 4.50 -2.62 1.88
204 CarolinaPanthers5_6 11.97 -10.13 1.85
205 NewYorkGiants7_8 9.01 -7.17 1.84
206 GreenBayPackers4_5 0.00 1.47 1.47
207 HoustonTexans12_13 3.00 -1.56 1.44
208 St.LouisRams8_9 0.50 0.91 1.41
209 NewYorkGiants8_9 -5.49 6.84 1.36
210 BuffaloBills12_13 11.00 -9.65 1.35
211 NewYorkGiants17_18 9.97 -8.62 1.35
212 St.LouisRams10_11 -0.50 1.83 1.33
213 SanFrancisco49ers10_11 1.00 0.33 1.33
214 WashingtonRedskins16_17 0.00 1.32 1.32
215 NewYorkJets14_15 -4.03 5.34 1.32
216 WashingtonRedskins11_12 -3.50 4.79 1.29
217 PhiladelphiaEagles12_13 -6.47 7.73 1.25
218 GreenBayPackers10_11 12.50 -11.30 1.20
219 OaklandRaiders5_6 -8.00 9.18 1.18
220 WashingtonRedskins12_13 0.53 0.62 1.15
221 MiamiDolphins7_8 -13.49 14.35 0.86
222 KansasCityChiefs5_6 -4.47 5.30 0.83
223 MiamiDolphins6_7 -15.50 16.28 0.78
224 IndianapolisColts16_17 -7.97 8.75 0.77
225 DenverBroncos9_10 15.00 -14.37 0.63
226 MinnesotaVikings6_7 -8.50 9.09 0.59
227 TennesseeTitans12_13 -1.97 2.55 0.57
228 ChicagoBears1_2 2.01 -1.44 0.57
229 BuffaloBills8_9 7.50 -6.95 0.55
230 MinnesotaVikings3_4 -5.00 5.54 0.54
231 NewYorkJets12_13 10.50 -9.98 0.52
232 BuffaloBills7_8 11.00 -10.55 0.45
233 ArizonaCardinals3_4 2.00 -1.56 0.44
234 DenverBroncos13_14 8.00 -7.57 0.43
235 SeattleSeahawks3_4 11.50 -11.11 0.39
236 TampaBayBuccaneers8_9 0.03 0.35 0.38
237 CarolinaPanthers6_7 -4.50 4.85 0.35
238 JacksonvilleJaguars2_3 7.50 -7.15 0.35
239 JacksonvilleJaguars6_7 -10.50 10.84 0.34
240 JacksonvilleJaguars8_9 1.97 -1.84 0.14
241 NewOrleansSaints5_6 8.50 -8.37 0.13
242 BuffaloBills4_5 -1.97 2.10 0.12
243 TampaBayBuccaneers2_3 16.03 -16.07 -0.05
244 SeattleSeahawks1_2 3.66 -3.72 -0.07
245 ClevelandBrowns15_16 1.99 -2.09 -0.10
246 ClevelandBrowns12_13 2.97 -3.07 -0.10
247 SeattleSeahawks14_15 9.00 -9.12 -0.12
248 KansasCityChiefs7_8 -4.50 4.29 -0.21
249 PittsburghSteelers13_14 -14.00 13.79 -0.21
250 PittsburghSteelers4_5 7.00 -7.28 -0.28
251 BaltimoreRavens2_3 2.03 -2.48 -0.45
252 OaklandRaiders2_3 -0.50 -0.13 -0.63
253 JacksonvilleJaguars17_18 -3.69 2.94 -0.76
254 DenverBroncos15_16 -11.34 10.58 -0.76
255 HoustonTexans10_11 1.50 -2.31 -0.81
256 ArizonaCardinals10_11 1.00 -1.81 -0.81
257 TampaBayBuccaneers5_6 -8.00 7.16 -0.84
258 NewOrleansSaints12_13 8.00 -9.03 -1.03
259 CincinnatiBengals3_4 -12.00 10.96 -1.04
260 AtlantaFalcons15_16 0.00 -1.13 -1.13
261 NewYorkJets11_12 0.97 -2.11 -1.13
262 DallasCowboys15_16 -4.03 2.86 -1.16
263 BuffaloBills3_4 -14.00 12.71 -1.29
264 ArizonaCardinals2_3 0.00 -1.29 -1.29
265 OaklandRaiders10_11 0.97 -2.33 -1.35
266 PittsburghSteelers5_6 9.00 -10.47 -1.47
267 ChicagoBears10_11 -2.00 0.45 -1.55
268 CincinnatiBengals1_2 -0.68 -0.92 -1.60
269 TennesseeTitans4_5 2.00 -3.62 -1.62
270 ClevelandBrowns14_15 1.50 -3.12 -1.62
271 PittsburghSteelers6_7 6.97 -8.66 -1.69
272 DenverBroncos12_13 10.00 -11.69 -1.69
273 DallasCowboys13_14 -1.50 -0.20 -1.70
274 PittsburghSteelers12_13 -3.50 1.71 -1.79
275 SanDiegoChargers7_8 3.50 -5.31 -1.81
276 CincinnatiBengals11_12 7.50 -9.38 -1.88
277 ChicagoBears12_13 -6.50 4.59 -1.91
278 CincinnatiBengals4_5 -14.00 12.07 -1.93
279 BuffaloBills11_12 -7.53 5.53 -2.00
280 JacksonvilleJaguars7_8 -5.03 2.99 -2.04
281 CincinnatiBengals2_3 -1.53 -0.58 -2.10
282 SeattleSeahawks2_3 0.00 -2.13 -2.13
283 BaltimoreRavens1_2 1.34 -3.55 -2.21
284 SanFrancisco49ers14_15 1.53 -3.81 -2.28
285 ClevelandBrowns10_11 6.50 -8.81 -2.31
286 NewOrleansSaints4_5 4.00 -6.42 -2.42
287 BaltimoreRavens3_4 -5.50 2.98 -2.52
288 NewYorkJets13_14 -8.00 5.34 -2.66
289 IndianapolisColts10_11 10.50 -13.21 -2.71
290 AtlantaFalcons4_5 1.50 -4.22 -2.72
291 NewOrleansSaints15_16 -13.66 10.83 -2.83
292 MiamiDolphins2_3 -10.00 7.15 -2.85
293 NewYorkGiants11_12 -9.50 6.57 -2.93
294 MinnesotaVikings8_9 -8.00 5.05 -2.95
295 PittsburghSteelers3_4 7.00 -9.99 -2.99
296 ClevelandBrowns9_10 2.97 -5.98 -3.01
297 TampaBayBuccaneers6_7 -2.00 -1.07 -3.07
298 ChicagoBears4_5 1.47 -4.56 -3.09
299 CincinnatiBengals14_15 -1.00 -2.11 -3.11
300 NewYorkJets3_4 0.00 -3.20 -3.20
301 ClevelandBrowns1_2 -7.97 4.76 -3.21
302 ArizonaCardinals7_8 -1.53 -1.73 -3.26
303 BuffaloBills13_14 6.50 -9.77 -3.27
304 GreenBayPackers5_6 -4.97 1.65 -3.32
305 GreenBayPackers14_15 -1.53 -1.80 -3.32
306 CarolinaPanthers12_13 -7.00 3.65 -3.35
307 ClevelandBrowns11_12 2.00 -5.36 -3.36
308 NewYorkJets15_16 -0.68 -2.75 -3.42
309 CincinnatiBengals9_10 3.00 -6.47 -3.47
310 NewYorkJets1_2 -11.68 8.20 -3.48
311 DenverBroncos6_7 -4.47 0.99 -3.49
312 PittsburghSteelers11_12 5.53 -9.03 -3.50
313 TennesseeTitans13_14 1.50 -5.06 -3.56
314 CarolinaPanthers14_15 -4.97 1.26 -3.71
315 NewOrleansSaints13_14 13.50 -17.22 -3.72
316 DenverBroncos1_2 1.34 -5.10 -3.76
317 KansasCityChiefs2_3 -3.50 -0.27 -3.77
318 BuffaloBills5_6 -0.97 -2.83 -3.80
319 CarolinaPanthers15_16 0.50 -4.31 -3.81
320 TennesseeTitans14_15 6.50 -10.39 -3.89
321 OaklandRaiders12_13 -8.50 4.55 -3.95
322 CarolinaPanthers2_3 -3.00 -0.98 -3.98
323 NewYorkGiants10_11 -9.00 5.01 -3.99
324 CarolinaPanthers3_4 -3.00 -1.03 -4.03
325 TampaBayBuccaneers7_8 -4.00 -0.06 -4.06
326 DetroitLions9_10 -8.00 3.93 -4.07
327 ArizonaCardinals1_2 0.01 -4.10 -4.09
328 TennesseeTitans5_6 2.47 -6.58 -4.11
329 CincinnatiBengals5_6 0.00 -4.16 -4.16
330 ChicagoBears2_3 -9.97 5.79 -4.18
331 MiamiDolphins10_11 -3.53 -0.66 -4.18
332 ArizonaCardinals4_5 5.00 -9.26 -4.26
333 BuffaloBills6_7 7.50 -11.77 -4.27
334 CarolinaPanthers13_14 -14.00 9.65 -4.35
335 SanFrancisco49ers13_14 -9.47 5.04 -4.44
336 DenverBroncos2_3 -5.97 1.51 -4.47
337 KansasCityChiefs10_11 -3.00 -1.47 -4.47
338 DenverBroncos8_9 -7.53 3.00 -4.53
339 WashingtonRedskins5_6 -0.50 -4.10 -4.60
340 IndianapolisColts9_10 0.50 -5.14 -4.64
341 DenverBroncos10_11 5.50 -10.24 -4.74
342 BaltimoreRavens11_12 -10.50 5.68 -4.82
343 CincinnatiBengals8_9 3.97 -8.80 -4.83
344 ArizonaCardinals12_13 -7.50 2.65 -4.85
345 DallasCowboys16_17 -12.50 7.62 -4.88
346 AtlantaFalcons7_8 -1.00 -4.03 -5.03
347 DenverBroncos14_15 -16.03 10.97 -5.06
348 BuffaloBills2_3 -24.03 18.84 -5.19
349 JacksonvilleJaguars1_2 0.03 -5.25 -5.22
350 PittsburghSteelers9_10 0.00 -5.23 -5.23
351 DetroitLions12_13 -16.50 11.27 -5.23
352 SeattleSeahawks6_7 5.03 -10.26 -5.24
353 CarolinaPanthers4_5 -5.00 -0.29 -5.29
354 ArizonaCardinals11_12 -2.97 -2.33 -5.30
355 SanFrancisco49ers15_16 -3.99 -1.36 -5.35
356 MiamiDolphins5_6 -3.53 -1.93 -5.46
357 GreenBayPackers15_16 -10.68 5.21 -5.46
358 TennesseeTitans7_8 5.53 -11.07 -5.55
359 OaklandRaiders6_7 -3.00 -2.56 -5.56
360 NewYorkJets2_3 -2.00 -3.57 -5.57
361 BaltimoreRavens6_7 7.00 -12.65 -5.65
362 DenverBroncos3_4 -13.50 7.83 -5.67
363 OaklandRaiders9_10 -9.00 3.29 -5.71
364 TampaBayBuccaneers1_2 5.68 -11.46 -5.79
365 St.LouisRams11_12 0.53 -6.64 -6.11
366 ArizonaCardinals15_16 8.69 -14.86 -6.16
367 AtlantaFalcons6_7 -13.50 7.29 -6.21
368 ChicagoBears11_12 -3.97 -2.31 -6.29
369 PittsburghSteelers15_16 12.31 -18.65 -6.34
370 TennesseeTitans6_7 3.00 -9.37 -6.37
371 DetroitLions2_3 -16.00 9.61 -6.39
372 MiamiDolphins9_10 -6.50 -0.04 -6.54
373 MiamiDolphins8_9 -4.49 -2.20 -6.69
374 CarolinaPanthers1_2 -4.99 -1.71 -6.70
375 SanDiegoChargers8_9 -8.00 1.28 -6.72
376 NewYorkJets6_7 -7.00 0.22 -6.78
377 TampaBayBuccaneers15_16 -3.01 -3.81 -6.82
378 JacksonvilleJaguars16_17 -3.03 -3.98 -7.00
379 OaklandRaiders1_2 -6.01 -1.00 -7.01
380 OaklandRaiders13_14 -19.00 11.94 -7.06
381 HoustonTexans3_4 -8.00 0.91 -7.09
382 SanFrancisco49ers11_12 -2.53 -4.64 -7.17
383 WashingtonRedskins8_9 -2.50 -4.81 -7.31
384 AtlantaFalcons8_9 5.50 -12.82 -7.32
385 NewOrleansSaints14_15 -6.97 -0.48 -7.45
386 BuffaloBills15_16 -14.99 7.54 -7.45
387 BaltimoreRavens4_5 -3.03 -4.44 -7.47
388 KansasCityChiefs1_2 -9.36 1.89 -7.47
389 BuffaloBills1_2 -14.68 7.00 -7.68
390 BaltimoreRavens5_6 10.50 -18.26 -7.76
391 DenverBroncos11_12 -5.53 -2.24 -7.77
392 NewOrleansSaints9_10 -10.50 2.69 -7.81
393 AtlantaFalcons3_4 -1.47 -6.36 -7.83
394 DetroitLions5_6 -12.00 4.17 -7.83
395 AtlantaFalcons5_6 -14.00 6.17 -7.83
396 BaltimoreRavens12_13 -16.47 8.59 -7.89
397 DetroitLions3_4 -12.50 4.54 -7.96
398 SanFrancisco49ers9_10 -14.00 6.04 -7.96
399 MinnesotaVikings9_10 -13.50 5.41 -8.09
400 HoustonTexans8_9 -6.03 -2.07 -8.09
401 CincinnatiBengals13_14 1.00 -9.14 -8.14
402 SeattleSeahawks4_5 2.47 -10.76 -8.28
403 BuffaloBills14_15 -12.50 4.21 -8.29
404 CincinnatiBengals6_7 -4.97 -3.33 -8.31
405 HoustonTexans5_6 -8.50 0.16 -8.34
406 DetroitLions4_5 -10.50 2.05 -8.45
407 KansasCityChiefs11_12 -11.47 2.72 -8.76
408 AtlantaFalcons1_2 -8.03 -0.73 -8.76
409 MiamiDolphins3_4 -10.50 1.72 -8.78
410 BaltimoreRavens10_11 -10.50 1.43 -9.07
411 CarolinaPanthers11_12 -6.97 -2.13 -9.11
412 HoustonTexans6_7 -11.00 1.72 -9.28
413 NewYorkJets10_11 -14.00 4.69 -9.31
414 TennesseeTitans8_9 -3.97 -5.39 -9.37
415 OaklandRaiders7_8 -5.50 -3.98 -9.48
416 DetroitLions13_14 -19.00 9.40 -9.60
417 ArizonaCardinals14_15 -2.00 -7.61 -9.61
418 AtlantaFalcons2_3 -6.50 -3.22 -9.72
419 CincinnatiBengals7_8 -11.50 1.75 -9.75
420 OaklandRaiders14_15 -22.50 12.66 -9.84
421 DetroitLions11_12 -21.50 11.59 -9.91
422 SanFrancisco49ers8_9 -11.03 1.09 -9.94
423 SanFrancisco49ers1_2 2.66 -12.76 -10.10
424 ArizonaCardinals13_14 -11.03 0.72 -10.31
425 HoustonTexans4_5 -3.50 -6.82 -10.32
426 DetroitLions10_11 -11.47 1.10 -10.37
427 HoustonTexans11_12 -6.03 -4.45 -10.48
428 DenverBroncos7_8 -21.50 10.87 -10.63
429 PittsburghSteelers16_17 -4.32 -6.33 -10.66
430 OaklandRaiders8_9 -11.97 1.31 -10.67
431 SanFrancisco49ers5_6 -10.00 -0.78 -10.78
432 CarolinaPanthers7_8 -18.50 7.61 -10.89
433 PittsburghSteelers10_11 0.00 -10.98 -10.98
434 WashingtonRedskins7_8 -18.03 6.86 -11.17
435 AtlantaFalcons9_10 -8.50 -2.67 -11.17
436 SanFrancisco49ers7_8 -12.50 1.31 -11.19
437 BaltimoreRavens15_16 -7.50 -3.74 -11.24
438 MiamiDolphins4_5 -10.50 -0.75 -11.25
439 CincinnatiBengals12_13 -2.50 -8.79 -11.29
440 NewYorkJets9_10 -2.97 -8.67 -11.64
441 MiamiDolphins15_16 -17.34 5.63 -11.72
442 KansasCityChiefs15_16 -1.36 -10.36 -11.72
443 WashingtonRedskins6_7 -21.50 9.71 -11.79
444 CarolinaPanthers9_10 -10.50 -1.31 -11.81
445 ArizonaCardinals6_7 -8.50 -3.55 -12.05
446 KansasCityChiefs8_9 -16.47 4.41 -12.06
447 SanFrancisco49ers6_7 -19.50 7.42 -12.08
448 NewOrleansSaints3_4 -12.97 0.83 -12.15
449 MiamiDolphins14_15 -7.50 -4.75 -12.25
450 KansasCityChiefs9_10 -9.50 -2.81 -12.31
451 TampaBayBuccaneers16_17 -12.31 -0.06 -12.36
452 ChicagoBears3_4 -17.00 4.50 -12.50
453 BuffaloBills9_10 -21.50 8.95 -12.55
454 NewYorkJets7_8 -8.50 -4.07 -12.57
455 OaklandRaiders15_16 -25.50 12.79 -12.71
456 TennesseeTitans11_12 -10.50 -2.22 -12.72
457 DetroitLions15_16 -8.00 -4.95 -12.95
458 CarolinaPanthers10_11 -19.50 6.41 -13.09
459 DenverBroncos5_6 -20.47 7.37 -13.11
460 HoustonTexans7_8 -13.50 0.35 -13.15
461 St.LouisRams12_13 1.50 -14.99 -13.49
462 TennesseeTitans9_10 -14.50 0.89 -13.61
463 SanFrancisco49ers12_13 -18.50 4.73 -13.77
464 BaltimoreRavens7_8 -15.03 1.22 -13.81
465 ArizonaCardinals5_6 -6.00 -7.89 -13.89
466 St.LouisRams3_4 -21.53 6.96 -14.57
467 SanFrancisco49ers2_3 -7.03 -7.60 -14.63
468 DetroitLions14_15 -16.00 1.29 -14.71
469 St.LouisRams4_5 -15.50 0.64 -14.86
470 BaltimoreRavens9_10 -11.47 -3.40 -14.88
471 NewYorkJets8_9 -9.47 -5.57 -15.05
472 St.LouisRams7_8 -17.00 1.87 -15.13
473 St.LouisRams2_3 -11.00 -4.40 -15.40
474 DenverBroncos4_5 -28.00 12.57 -15.43
475 KansasCityChiefs14_15 -7.00 -8.77 -15.77
476 St.LouisRams13_14 -14.00 -2.36 -16.36
477 MiamiDolphins13_14 -7.50 -8.90 -16.40
478 BaltimoreRavens13_14 -15.00 -1.50 -16.50
479 NewOrleansSaints2_3 -17.00 0.23 -16.77
480 BuffaloBills10_11 -34.00 17.18 -16.82
481 SeattleSeahawks5_6 -16.00 -1.01 -17.01
482 BaltimoreRavens14_15 -10.53 -6.65 -17.18
483 NewOrleansSaints1_2 -18.69 1.14 -17.55
484 AtlantaFalcons10_11 -23.97 6.34 -17.63
485 AtlantaFalcons14_15 -15.53 -2.62 -18.15
486 CarolinaPanthers8_9 -10.00 -8.35 -18.35
487 AtlantaFalcons11_12 -15.00 -3.43 -18.43
488 MiamiDolphins11_12 -15.00 -3.78 -18.78
489 St.LouisRams1_2 -8.31 -10.48 -18.78
490 St.LouisRams5_6 -11.00 -7.89 -18.89
491 St.LouisRams14_15 -20.97 1.56 -19.41
492 TennesseeTitans10_11 -18.53 -0.99 -19.51
493 SanFrancisco49ers4_5 -13.97 -5.78 -19.75
494 BaltimoreRavens8_9 -22.50 1.16 -21.34
495 SanFrancisco49ers3_4 -20.50 -1.03 -21.53
496 KansasCityChiefs12_13 -24.00 2.03 -21.97
497 AtlantaFalcons12_13 -16.00 -6.09 -22.09
498 St.LouisRams6_7 -20.03 -3.61 -23.63
499 KansasCityChiefs13_14 -21.50 -2.18 -23.68
500 MiamiDolphins12_13 -24.00 -0.63 -24.63
501 St.LouisRams15_16 -21.99 -3.30 -25.29
502 AtlantaFalcons13_14 -27.00 0.13 -26.87

Obviously, I haven't undertaken this task for every season in NFL history, but I think this is an interesting way of looking at what Chase was talking about. Now, the question still remains as to whether a team's point differentials in any given week represent their "true talent" at that point in time, or if I've simply introduced an absurd amount of randomness into the process. I suppose, then, that this is more "retrodictive" than anything else, since it's by definition trying to determine how good a team was at a certain point in the past.

Anyway, here's another crazy (mis?)application of the SRS... The standard SRS for this season (with an adjustment for HFA) looks like this:

Rank Team MOV SOS SRS
1 NewOrleansSaints 18.50 1.37 19.87
2 NewEnglandPatriots 13.90 1.04 14.94
3 IndianapolisColts 17.45 -4.44 13.01
4 DenverBroncos 11.17 1.24 12.40
5 NewYorkJets 7.05 1.89 8.94
6 BaltimoreRavens 6.50 1.83 8.33
7 CincinnatiBengals 4.81 3.06 7.87
8 AtlantaFalcons 5.00 2.79 7.79
9 MiamiDolphins -1.45 8.68 7.23
10 GreenBayPackers 10.83 -4.36 6.47
11 ArizonaCardinals 4.50 1.95 6.45
12 MinnesotaVikings 8.48 -2.92 5.56
13 DallasCowboys 6.67 -2.57 4.10
14 NewYorkGiants 7.62 -3.62 4.00
15 SanDiegoChargers 3.00 0.78 3.78
16 PittsburghSteelers 5.24 -2.14 3.09
17 SanFrancisco49ers 1.83 -0.13 1.70
18 ChicagoBears -2.05 2.46 0.42
19 SeattleSeahawks 1.05 -0.96 0.09
20 PhiladelphiaEagles 7.83 -7.92 -0.09
21 HoustonTexans 1.09 -1.32 -0.22
22 BuffaloBills -3.38 2.07 -1.31
23 JacksonvilleJaguars -4.50 -2.37 -6.87
24 ClevelandBrowns -15.09 6.06 -9.03
25 DetroitLions -14.17 3.64 -10.53
26 CarolinaPanthers -8.50 -3.15 -11.65
27 KansasCityChiefs -11.05 -1.10 -12.15
28 TennesseeTitans -18.55 5.48 -13.07
29 WashingtonRedskins -4.05 -9.52 -13.57
30 OaklandRaiders -16.62 2.38 -14.24
31 TampaBayBuccaneers -15.29 -0.51 -15.80
32 St.LouisRams -21.38 0.91 -20.46

But what if we disregarded points and simply looked at total yards and turnovers for/against? I regressed points onto yards and turnovers, and came up with this equation: predicted_pts = (0.0773893288884591 * total_yards) - (2.54153631954305 * turnovers). Then I treated the results the same as I would point totals and plugged them into the SRS, getting these rankings:

Rank Team MOV-2 SOS-2 SRS-2
1 NewOrleansSaints 12.73 2.28 15.01
2 NewEnglandPatriots 12.02 0.21 12.22
3 DenverBroncos 11.18 -0.72 10.46
4 NewYorkGiants 11.01 -1.84 9.17
5 GreenBayPackers 12.35 -4.26 8.09
6 IndianapolisColts 10.92 -3.09 7.84
7 BaltimoreRavens 5.53 -0.43 5.10
8 PhiladelphiaEagles 8.50 -3.91 4.59
9 DallasCowboys 4.69 -0.26 4.43
10 NewYorkJets 3.33 1.00 4.33
11 MiamiDolphins -0.04 4.17 4.13
12 PittsburghSteelers 5.75 -2.72 3.03
13 SanDiegoChargers 2.78 0.16 2.94
14 MinnesotaVikings 4.64 -2.34 2.31
15 CincinnatiBengals 0.44 1.58 2.02
16 ArizonaCardinals 0.34 0.87 1.20
17 HoustonTexans 2.41 -2.79 -0.37
18 AtlantaFalcons -2.25 1.48 -0.77
19 ChicagoBears -2.83 0.69 -2.15
20 JacksonvilleJaguars -0.43 -2.11 -2.53
21 SeattleSeahawks -2.23 -1.82 -4.05
22 DetroitLions -7.70 3.51 -4.20
23 BuffaloBills -5.92 1.59 -4.33
24 SanFrancisco49ers -2.82 -2.02 -4.84
25 CarolinaPanthers -3.63 -1.31 -4.94
26 WashingtonRedskins -2.21 -3.04 -5.25
27 TampaBayBuccaneers -8.79 2.27 -6.51
28 TennesseeTitans -10.92 4.09 -6.84
29 KansasCityChiefs -10.10 1.16 -8.93
30 St.LouisRams -10.65 0.22 -10.43
31 OaklandRaiders -16.00 3.17 -12.84
32 ClevelandBrowns -16.92 3.81 -13.11

The problem with this method is that yards and turnovers only explain about 53% of the variation in points scored/allowed -- the rest are attributable to special teams, starting field position, the ability to string together first downs, etc. So all things being equal, I'd bank on the standard SRS long before I used the yards/TOs method for any purpose but fun. Still, it's interesting to see which teams look better/worse than their point differential when you judge just on total yardage and turnovers.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 28th, 2009 at 1:13 pm and is filed under Insane ideas, Simple Rating System, Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.