PI Finds: Derek Anderson Among Worst Ever
Posted by Neil Paine on Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Yikes, what can you say about the Browns? Things are getting pretty ugly in Cleveland, following a 30-6 loss to the Bears that left the team having been outscored 61-9 over the past 2 weeks. QB Derek Anderson was brutal again, tossing 2 picks and turning the ball over another time on a botched snap. Amidst Cleveland's myriad woes, it might be easy to write off Anderson's performance so far in 2009 as merely one of many breakdowns, but that's understating just how awful Anderson has been... Through 8 games, here are the worst passer-rating performances by a QB in a season since 1960:
| Rk | Player | Age | Year | Lg | Tm | G | W | L | T | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Kapp | 32 | 1970 | NFL | NWE | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 49 | 112 | 43.8% | 509 | 1 | 10 | 23.3 |
| 2 | Bob Lee | 29 | 1974 | NFL | ATL | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 56 | 129 | 43.4% | 621 | 3 | 13 | 26.5 |
| 3 | Mike Taliaferro | 27 | 1968 | AFL | NWE | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 67 | 176 | 38.1% | 889 | 4 | 15 | 26.9 |
| 4 | Mike Phipps | 27 | 1975 | NFL | CLE | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 56 | 119 | 47.1% | 611 | 0 | 10 | 27.7 |
| 5 | Rick Norton | 23 | 1967 | AFL | MIA | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 53 | 133 | 39.8% | 596 | 1 | 9 | 28.3 |
| 6 | John McCormick | 29 | 1966 | AFL | DEN | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 54 | 149 | 36.2% | 659 | 3 | 10 | 29.5 |
| 7 | Cotton Davidson | 30 | 1962 | AFL | TOT | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 69 | 180 | 38.3% | 993 | 2 | 13 | 30.6 |
| 8 | Terry Bradshaw | 22 | 1970 | NFL | PIT | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 57 | 139 | 41.0% | 898 | 2 | 12 | 32.0 |
| 9 | Dan Pastorini | 22 | 1971 | NFL | OTI | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 66 | 147 | 44.9% | 902 | 3 | 15 | 32.3 |
| 10 | Cotton Davidson | 34 | 1966 | AFL | RAI | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 59 | 139 | 42.4% | 770 | 2 | 11 | 32.4 |
| 11 | Babe Parilli | 35 | 1965 | AFL | NWE | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 88 | 235 | 37.4% | 1269 | 7 | 18 | 33.8 |
| 12 | Pete Liske | 29 | 1971 | NFL | PHI | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 60 | 130 | 46.2% | 814 | 3 | 12 | 35.9 |
| 13 | Jerry Tagge | 24 | 1974 | NFL | GNB | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 70 | 146 | 47.9% | 709 | 1 | 10 | 36.0 |
| 14 | Derek Anderson | 26 | 2009 | NFL | CLE | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 66 | 154 | 42.9% | 681 | 2 | 9 | 36.2 |
| 15 | Mike Taliaferro | 29 | 1970 | NFL | NWE | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 61 | 135 | 45.2% | 727 | 2 | 10 | 36.2 |
| 16 | Dan Darragh | 21 | 1968 | AFL | BUF | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 73 | 168 | 43.5% | 797 | 3 | 11 | 36.7 |
| 17 | Norm Snead | 29 | 1968 | NFL | PHI | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 65 | 130 | 50.0% | 685 | 4 | 12 | 37.5 |
| 18 | Heath Shuler | 22 | 1994 | NFL | WAS | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 45 | 113 | 39.8% | 547 | 4 | 8 | 37.7 |
| 19 | Dan Fouts | 22 | 1973 | NFL | SDG | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 55 | 132 | 41.7% | 719 | 4 | 10 | 38.0 |
| 20 | Steve DeBerg | 24 | 1978 | NFL | SFO | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 98 | 231 | 42.4% | 1094 | 7 | 16 | 38.4 |
| 21 | Mike Phipps | 32 | 1980 | NFL | CHI | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 59 | 120 | 49.2% | 610 | 2 | 9 | 38.5 |
| 22 | Matt Robinson | 25 | 1980 | NFL | DEN | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 60 | 125 | 48.0% | 712 | 1 | 9 | 38.5 |
| 23 | Randy Johnson | 22 | 1966 | NFL | ATL | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 63 | 144 | 43.8% | 899 | 4 | 12 | 39.1 |
| 24 | Joe Pisarcik | 25 | 1977 | NFL | NYG | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 53 | 134 | 39.6% | 796 | 3 | 9 | 39.3 |
| 25 | Steve Bartkowski | 23 | 1976 | NFL | ATL | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 57 | 120 | 47.5% | 677 | 2 | 9 | 39.5 |
That's right, Eric Mangini benched Brady Quinn in Week 3 so he could receive the 14th-worst 1st-half quarterbacking performance in almost 50 years (!) from Anderson. And keep in mind that passer ratings in the modern game are almost always significantly higher than they were in the sixties and early seventies, since today's defenses are greatly restricted in what they can do when trying to stop receivers from getting open and/or catching the ball. Not since another Cleveland quarterback, Mike Phipps, posted a 27.7 rating in 1975 has a QB opened the season as badly as Anderson this year, and among the bottom 25 half-seasons listed above, Anderson's '09 and Heath Shuler's 1994 are the only ones to come after 1980. You can be sure that this is not the kind of history the Browns wanted to make in 2009.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009 at 10:16 AM and filed under Best/Worst Ever, PI Finds. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Skip to the end and leave a response. Trackbacks are closed.
I tend to use modern passing as Post-Mel-Blount rule -- 1978-present. With that criteria, in terms of "worst ever" list:
Rating: #1
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 11:45 am | PermalinkComp %: #8
Y/A : #2
AY/A : #3
JaMarcus Russell's 48.3 rating looks almost Montana-esque by comparison!
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 11:56 am | PermalinkIt became public a few weeks ago that if Brady Quinn plays 70% of Cleveland's snaps, he qualifies for an $11 million roster bonus.
Clearly, upper management in Cleveland is willingly letting Anderson put up historically awful numbers in order to save money on Quinn. Now that that threshold cannot be reached, don't be surprised to see Quinn back at the helm after Cleveland's bye this week.
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 1:32 pm | PermalinkJust like to point out that Terry Bradshaw "led" the 1970 Steelers out the gate with 2 TDs and 12 INTs of glory. He went to the HOF for this?
They might have been 7-0 if Curious George was under center.
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 2:38 pm | PermalinkAndy, Terry Bradshaw was the perfect QB-do just enough in the reg. season to get into the po's, and then LEAD YOUR TEAM to playoff success. Bradshaw did this better than anyone. A little trivia-no QB had to lead their team to more points to win a S.B. game than Bradshaw. Another way to say it-no defense gave up more points and still won the S.B. than Pittsburgh (35-31 over Dallas). Here's 1 other-Bradshaw had to lead his O to TD's in the 4th quarter of all 4 of his S.B.'s to either produce a comeback win or to seal the deal. He was Mr. Clutch.
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 3:54 pm | Permalink#4:That would make sense Bradshaw had only played one season. If that one season was 1970.
And Curious George would not have done better in Pittsburgh. He was clearly the product of an offense built around him by The Man with the Yellow Hat.
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 5:17 pm | PermalinkDig through the archives here from 2007 & you'll find plenty of gushing over Derek Anderson's fabulous AYPA.
This year is notable for 7* teams having packed it in early. Most years 2 or 3, this year its contagious.
*The Titans are showing signs of life, but for the first 6 games were a super clear example of how hard a team can fall. I look forward to the memoirs.
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 6:06 pm | PermalinkAndy, if Derek Anderson goes on to win 4 Super Bowls then your statement would have some legitimacy. Otherwise, I think not.
Posted on 03-Nov-09 at 8:02 pm | PermalinkTwo years ago, I asked the question "Anderson or Quinn", in looking at young non-first rounders who had a good year starting, versus first rounders who had yet to play.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=413
Apparently, the answer at this point is "neither." Even after last year, Anderson compared to guys like Scott Mitchell and Gus Frerotte. But after this year, eesh. Quinn is yet to grab the reins at the start to his season (over 60% comp while under 5.5 ypa) compares to guys in captain checkdown mode like Klingler, Shuler, and Kanell. But given Anderson's play, well, at this point, you have to see whether Quinn can put any points on the board.
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 7:37 am | PermalinkESPN had this on Anderson:
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If every pass a quarterback attempts falls to the ground incomplete, his QB rating is 39.6. Derek Anderson's quarterback rating is 36.2.
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Ouch.
Regarding Quinn... He's had what, 3 starts in 3 years? He may not be the answer but I don't think he's had much of a chance either. God it must suck to be a newbie QB on a weak team...
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 9:21 am | PermalinkI find it facinating that Joe Kapp had the worst rating for the first 8 games. Just one year before he had QB'ed the Vikings to the SB. And in one game, against the defending NFL champion Colts (though losers in the SB), he threw 7 TD's in one game. Amazing the variety of performance that can come out of a player, even though he left a strong team to a really poor one. And whom did he succeed? Mike Taliaferro who also appears on the list
Posted on 04-Nov-09 at 11:40 am | PermalinkKapp was basically a one-year wonder with the Vikings in 69, and even then the Viks won primarily with the Purple People Eaters defense. Kansas City popped Kapp and Viks balloon in the Super Bowl and Kapp was bascially done after that.
Re: Bradshaw in 69. That was Terry's rookie season and he was thrown to the lions as the first pick in the draft on a bad Steeler team (they went 1-13 the previous year). Bradshaw came from a small school, and it really took most QBs three to four years to adapt to the NFL game back then. Terry's early years with Steelers were very tough; Noll was constantly pulling in favor of Terry Hanratty or Joe Gilliam, and leaving Bradshaw to twist in the wind. Bradshaw never forgave Noll for this, and their relationship was very icy for a long time. Didn't matter much on the field as the decade went along, though.
Posted on 05-Nov-09 at 4:11 am | PermalinkI meant Bradshaw in 1970, of course.
Posted on 05-Nov-09 at 4:12 am | PermalinkFor Biohh--you're points are well taken. I would say that Kapp had an ok year in 1968 and one in which the Vikes went to the playoffs, only to lose a tough game to the Colts. Yes , defense "carried" the Vikes that year, but my point was the variety of performance from players. Kapp could have soured at QB with the Vikes even with a good team. He goes to NE, and he really does poorly. Is it him? Is it the team? Certainly it is some of both. I was merely citing a vast discrepancy in performance from one year to the next. Just FYI 1969 stats 1726 yards passing; 19 TD's to 13 int.'s; avg/completion--14.4. Had highest TD %age for league (8.0). QB rating of 78.5 (6th). For 1970--1104 yrds passing; 3 TD's to 17 int's; avg.completion--11.3; only 1.8 %age for TDS's to attempts; overall QB rating of 32.6 (oh how the mighty fell!). Agsin, just interesting about performance variability.
Posted on 05-Nov-09 at 12:14 pm | PermalinkTT, your points are well taken as well. Clearly Kapp's year to year performance from 69 to 70 is a reflection, at least in part,of the quality of the teama that he was on; but I would suggest that a large part of this monumental decline was due to Kapp's individual play and his somewhat unique qualities as QB. I don't know if you had a chance to see JK play, but I was around back then (god I'm old) and Kapp was a very unpolished QB, even for the era. In fact he was proud of this: SI ran a three part bio of Kapp in the off-season in 1970 and in this bio JK played up his machismo and leadership ability, and denigrated his athleticism and QB skills. I would suggest that if you took Len Dawson off the 69 Chiefs and deposited him on 70 Pats, his QB rating and overall performance would decline, but nowhere near as dramatically as Kapp's did.
Posted on 05-Nov-09 at 3:58 pm | PermalinkI am old too! Saw Joe Kapp play alot in that notable 1969 season. He was fairly unpolished as a passer though like Bill Kilmer, somehow could deliver. He did have several good years in the CFL which probably helped his NFL transition. Stil, he was no Johnny U. And I think that the comparison of Len Dawson going to New England would have definitely shown a fall off, just not near enough. Interesting while he have comparisons is how Gary Cuozzo did after Kapp left. He was definitely more polished, and the Viking passing game had no falloff. Their regular season performance was not much different than the 1969 year either.
Posted on 06-Nov-09 at 11:21 am | PermalinkIs there any such thing as any quarterback list that doesn't somehow include Steve DeBerg?
Posted on 06-Nov-09 at 1:17 pm | PermalinkIt's interesting that Matt Robinson's stats (22nd worst) quoted in this article are so different from those on his player page, and the 1980 Broncos team page. Why would this be?
Posted on 10-Nov-09 at 4:15 pm | PermalinkOh right - now I see: "through 8 games". Sorry.
Posted on 10-Nov-09 at 4:16 pm | PermalinkOne thing that seems odd is the distribution over time of these poor performances. Here is the distribution by decade.
1960s: 9
1970s: 12
1980s: 2
1990s: 1
2000s: 1 so far
Perhaps QBs were left in for more games in the past than modern QBs. Perhaps free agency means that if a guy is so horrible, you find some talent somewhere else and pay for it (unless you are Cleveland).
Seems odd that the distribution would be so skewed.
Anyway, Derek Anderson is horrible, no matter how you slice the data.
Posted on 10-Nov-09 at 4:37 pm | PermalinkGNM: I'm guessing it has more to do with changes to rules that affect passing. The Mel Blount rule (restricting DBs manhandling receivers) happened in... 1978? Since then, average passer ratings have been much higher.
Posted on 10-Nov-09 at 10:51 pm | PermalinkGood point Mattie. That must be it.
Posted on 11-Nov-09 at 10:56 am | Permalink"Since then, average passer ratings have been much higher."
To put it mildly. Brian Griese is rated far ahead of John Unitas by career rating.
The NFL passer rating system is awful to begin with -- it is so biased towards high completion percentage that a QB can increase his rating by completing passes that lose yardage.
So, in any era, it boosts the short-throwers and penalizes the long-throwers (say Len Dawson and Bob Griese v Joe Namath and John Unitas).
Add to that the changes in the rules that greatly increased average completion pct (which was about 50% in the '60s and '70s) and improved the TD-pick ratios (about 1 to 1 back in them olden days), and which brought in the very high completion pct West Coast offense, and it is *very* highly biased towards today's QB and against the pre-1980 QBs -- especially so against the long-throwing greats of the past.
Posted on 12-Nov-09 at 8:56 pm | PermalinkCompletion percentage goes up about 1 point every 5 years, and passer rating goes up about 1 point every 3 years. One could use that simple formula to era adjust passer ratings, which gives more reasonable-feeling to cross-era numbers. For instance, adjusting passer rating to a year 2000 standard
Posted on 13-Nov-09 at 12:25 pm | Permalink:
Graham: 102.7
Young: 99.4
Montana: 96.7
Manning: 94.1
Staubach: 91.9
Brady: 91.2
Tarkenton: 90.3
Unitas: 89.7
Marino: 89.3
Brees: 88.9
Favre: 86.0
Elway: 83.0
Griese: 81.7
Bradshaw: 78.5
Dilfer: 70.0
Anderson: 67.2
:
But I do agree that passer rating isn't terribly valuable as a metric, even after adjusting.
Peyton and Brian, in case it wasn't clear. Eli would be 75.5 and Bob would be 85.7