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NCAA: SRS ratings through ten weeks

Posted by Chase Stuart on Sunday, November 8, 2009

Last week, the SRS (along with just about every human being) was unimpressed with Iowa's resume. After an embarassing loss to Northwestern, the Hawkeyes are now at #29 in the SRS.

Before moving on to the results, a quick thanks to Peter R. Wolfe, who makes the results of every college football game available in an easy to use format. Early in the year, I was hesitant to use the results from the FCS (formerly I-AA) teams, as the small sample size was likely to skew the results. With ten weeks in the books, I am no longer lumping all FCS teams into one big group; now, each FBS team (formerly I-A team) that plays an FCS opponent will be given that specific team's strength of schedule grade, as opposed to the rating of the average FCS team. Along with an interesting week in college football, this tweak means the week 10 rankings look quite a bit different than last week's set.

The ratings are going to be a lot higher for each team as a result of eliminating the "FCS Team" and simply iterating every team in all of college football. But we're only concerned with the differentials between teams, and that hasn't been amplified. A quick reminder: these ratings are meant to be predictive, not a list of how college football teams should be ranked. Teams like Virginia Tech, Clemson and Oklahoma shouldn't be ranked that high in the polls, because they've had a number of losses this year. But based on their large victories, close losses, and/or tough strength of schedule, they're much better teams than their record indicates.

The full list of the 120 FBS teams, after the jump. As you will see, Texas finally broke the tie at #1.

rank conf team MOV SOS SRS record
1 B12 Texas 24.1 48.5 72.6 9-0
2 SEC Florida 22.2 48.9 71.1 9-0
3 SEC Alabama 16.9 52.2 69.1 9-0
4 MWC TCU 23.5 45.3 68.8 9-0
5 P10 Oregon 13.6 53.5 67.0 7-2
6 BigE Cincinnati 23.2 43.7 66.9 9-0
7 ACC Virginia Tech 9.2 55.8 65.0 6-3
8 B12 Oklahoma 14.4 50.2 64.6 5-4
9 WAC Boise St 21.9 42.6 64.5 9-0
10 ACC Clemson 13.2 50.7 63.9 6-3
11 B10 Ohio State 16.6 47.1 63.6 8-2
12 ACC Georgia Tech 9.9 53.5 63.4 9-1
13 P10 Southern Cal 10.0 52.4 62.4 7-2
14 ACC Miami FL 8.8 53.2 61.9 7-2
15 B10 Penn State 16.1 45.1 61.2 8-2
16 SEC LSU 10.3 50.6 61.0 7-2
17 BigE Pittsburgh 16.2 44.3 60.6 8-1
18 B12 Nebraska 11.5 48.9 60.4 6-3
19 SEC Tennessee 9.8 50.0 59.8 5-4
20 SEC Arkansas 8.4 51.2 59.7 5-4
21 P10 Stanford 8.3 51.0 59.3 6-3
22 B12 Texas Tech 13.2 45.4 58.6 6-3
23 P10 Arizona 9.3 49.2 58.4 6-2
24 B12 Oklahoma St 11.8 46.4 58.2 7-2
25 SEC Mississippi 12.3 45.6 57.9 6-3
26 P10 California 8.3 49.1 57.4 6-3
27 MWC Brigham Young 11.8 45.5 57.4 7-2
28 ACC Boston College 8.6 48.8 57.3 6-3
29 B10 Iowa 7.6 49.4 56.9 9-1
30 P10 Oregon St 5.7 51.1 56.8 6-3
31 WAC Fresno St 12.6 43.5 56.1 6-3
32 SEC Auburn 7.2 48.7 55.9 7-3
33 INDY Notre Dame 5.6 50.0 55.6 6-3
34 ACC Florida St -0.8 55.7 54.9 4-5
35 B10 Wisconsin 6.2 48.6 54.8 7-2
36 BigE South Florida 13.1 41.2 54.3 6-2
37 SEC Georgia 1.5 52.7 54.2 5-4
38 CUSA Houston 12.8 41.1 53.9 8-1
39 MWC Utah 12.1 41.8 53.9 8-1
40 MWC Air Force 13.5 39.9 53.4 6-4
41 ACC Wake Forest 0.4 53.0 53.4 4-6
42 B10 Michigan St 6.5 46.5 53.0 5-5
43 BigE West Virginia 7.3 45.7 53.0 7-2
44 BigE Connecticut 5.4 47.3 52.8 4-5
45 SEC Kentucky 3.4 48.8 52.2 5-4
46 P10 UCLA -3.3 55.5 52.1 4-5
47 B12 Missouri 3.6 48.5 52.1 5-4
48 ACC North Carolina 6.2 45.8 52.0 6-3
49 SEC South Carolina 1.4 50.6 52.0 6-4
50 MAC Central Michigan 13.7 38.2 52.0 7-2
51 SEC Mississippi St 2.0 49.7 51.7 4-5
52 P10 Arizona St 4.8 46.9 51.7 4-5
53 INDY Navy 5.6 45.9 51.5 7-3
54 B12 Texas A&M 4.7 46.5 51.2 5-4
55 B12 Kansas 5.8 45.4 51.2 5-4
56 P10 Washington -5.7 56.6 50.9 3-6
57 B12 Kansas St 4.9 45.4 50.3 6-4
58 B10 Minnesota -2.7 51.7 49.0 5-5
59 MAC Northern Illinois 12.2 35.6 47.8 6-3
60 B10 Purdue -2.8 50.5 47.7 4-6
61 BigE Rutgers 11.6 35.8 47.4 6-2
62 B10 Michigan 4.5 42.9 47.3 5-5
63 B12 Baylor -0.2 47.4 47.2 4-5
64 ACC North Carolina St 3.6 43.5 47.1 4-5
65 SunB Troy 6.9 40.1 47.0 7-2
66 WAC Nevada 3.9 43.1 46.9 5-3
67 CUSA East Carolina 2.8 43.7 46.5 5-4
68 ACC Virginia -4.6 51.1 46.5 3-6
69 ACC Duke 4.4 42.0 46.4 5-4
70 CUSA Southern Miss 8.7 37.5 46.2 5-4
71 CUSA Marshall 1.1 44.1 45.2 5-4
72 B12 Iowa St -1.9 47.1 45.2 5-5
73 CUSA Tulsa 5.8 39.1 44.9 4-5
74 MAC Temple 5.7 38.4 44.0 7-2
75 B10 Illinois -5.4 49.2 43.8 3-6
76 CUSA Central Florida 0.0 43.2 43.2 5-4
77 SunB Middle Tennessee St 4.3 38.8 43.1 6-3
78 MAC Ohio U. 4.7 38.2 42.9 6-3
79 SunB Louisiana-Monroe 1.9 41.0 42.8 5-4
80 B12 Colorado -6.2 49.0 42.8 3-6
81 CUSA SMU -1.2 43.7 42.5 5-4
82 B10 Northwestern 1.1 41.3 42.4 6-4
83 MAC Bowling Green -3.0 45.2 42.2 4-5
84 WAC Idaho 0.1 41.8 41.9 7-3
85 B10 Indiana -3.1 44.8 41.8 4-6
86 WAC Louisiana Tech 1.2 40.5 41.7 3-6
87 SEC Vanderbilt -6.1 47.5 41.5 2-8
88 BigE Louisville -7.2 47.6 40.4 3-6
89 SunB Arkansas St 2.4 37.6 40.0 2-6
90 BigE Syracuse -9.9 49.7 39.8 3-6
91 WAC Utah St -5.0 44.5 39.5 2-7
92 MWC San Diego St -4.4 43.8 39.3 4-5
93 CUSA Alabama-Birmingham -3.6 42.7 39.2 4-5
94 MWC Colorado St -8.9 47.6 38.7 3-7
95 MWC UNLV -5.4 43.9 38.5 4-6
96 MAC Buffalo -2.4 40.6 38.1 3-6
97 ACC Maryland -10.7 48.7 38.1 2-7
98 MWC Wyoming -7.8 45.6 37.8 4-5
99 MAC Kent St -0.7 37.4 36.8 5-5
100 CUSA UTEP -6.1 42.8 36.7 3-6
101 WAC Hawai`i -6.8 43.2 36.4 3-6
102 MAC Western Michigan -4.8 40.8 36.0 4-6
103 WAC San José St -16.9 52.4 35.5 1-6
104 MAC Toledo -7.6 41.7 34.1 4-5
105 SunB Florida Atlantic -8.6 42.3 33.7 2-6
106 SunB Louisiana-Lafayette -4.7 38.3 33.6 5-4
107 MAC Akron -7.4 40.8 33.4 2-7
108 P10 Washington St -21.6 54.5 32.9 1-8
109 CUSA Memphis -11.1 43.8 32.8 2-7
110 SunB Florida Int'l -9.2 41.9 32.7 2-7
111 MAC Miami OH -14.5 46.8 32.3 1-9
112 INDY Army -8.5 39.6 31.1 3-6
113 SunB North Texas -10.3 40.0 29.8 2-7
114 MAC Ball St -9.4 37.7 28.2 1-8
115 CUSA Tulane -17.3 45.0 27.7 3-6
116 MWC New Mexico -19.4 44.7 25.3 0-9
117 WAC New Mexico St -15.9 40.5 24.7 3-6
118 CUSA Rice -23.0 47.3 24.3 0-9
119 MAC Eastern Michigan -20.3 43.3 23.0 0-9
120 SunB Western Kentucky -22.2 42.1 19.9 0-9

Conference rankings:

Conf Rat
SEC 57.2
P10 54.9
B12 54.5
ACC 54.2
BigE 51.9
B10 51.1
MWC 45.9
WAC 43.0
CUSA 40.3
MAC 37.7
SunB 35.8

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 8th, 2009 at 11:58 AM and filed under College. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Skip to the end and leave a response. Trackbacks are closed.

5 Responses to “NCAA: SRS ratings through ten weeks”

  1. Brian Burke said:

    There is clearly an error here because Navy is ranked well below Air Force. And since we know that's impossible, there must be some mistake!

    Posted on 08-Nov-09 at 3:45 pm | Permalink
  2. MattieShoes said:

    Sorry I don't follow college football... but why does every team have an enormously positive SOS? Are there a bunch of teams with enormously negative SOS'es that aren't listed causing it?

    Posted on 08-Nov-09 at 6:24 pm | Permalink
  3. Chase said:

    Mattie, to avoid lumping all FCS teams together, I needed to include every team in college football. So yeah, with this formula, every team will be above average because average is the average college football team (which includes worse divisions of college football than the FCS).

    Posted on 08-Nov-09 at 6:43 pm | Permalink
  4. Chase Stuart said:

    Just for you, Brian. Here's a breakdown of Navy vs. Air Force, sorted by each team's best season.

    Tm1	     PF	  Tm2	           PF	 MOV	SOS	SRS
Navy	     23	  Notre Dame	   21	 7.0	55.6	62.6
Navy	     63	  Rice	           14	38.0	24.3	62.3
Navy         32	  Louisiana Tech   14	15.0	41.7	56.7
Navy	     27	  Ohio State	   31	-7.0	63.6	56.6
Navy	     16	  Air Force	   13	 0.0	53.4	53.4
Navy	     13	  Wake Forest	   10	 0.0	53.4	53.4
Navy	     14	  Pittsburgh	   27  -10.0	60.6	50.6
Navy	     38	  SMU	           35	 7.0	42.5	49.5
Navy	     24	  Temple	   27	-7.0	44.0	37.0
Navy	     38   Western Kentucky 22	13.0	19.9	32.9
				         5.6	45.9	51.5

Air Force    72	  Nicholls St	    0	69.0	 3.5	72.5
Air Force    17	  TCU	           20	-7.0	68.8	61.8
Air Force    34	  Colorado St	   16	21.0	38.7	59.7
Air Force    35	  Army	            7	24.5	31.1	55.6
Air Force    13	  Navy	           16	 0.0	51.5	51.5
Air Force    37	  New Mexico	   13	25.5	25.3	50.8
Air Force    26	  San Diego St	   14	 9.0	39.3	48.3
Air Force    16	  Utah	           23	-7.0	53.9	46.9
Air Force    10	  Wyoming	    0	 7.0	37.8	44.8
Air Force    13	  Minnesota	   20	-7.0	49.0	42.0
				        13.5	39.9	53.4
    Posted on 08-Nov-09 at 10:40 pm | Permalink
  5. Jeremiah said:

    As long as you have them already, are you going to post FCS ratings?

    Posted on 10-Nov-09 at 9:33 am | Permalink

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