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NCAA: SRS ratings through eleven weeks

Posted by Chase Stuart on November 15, 2009

With just one week left in the college football regular season, the college football rankings should be more precise than ever this week. And, as members of the national media are becoming more apt to notice, it appears we've got a Big 4, not a Big 3. With a blowout victory over rival Utah last night, TCU now is within half a point of Florida and Alabama, while the Horned Frogs' in-state rival now have a field-goal lead over all schools.

A quick review of the SRS system. All games are included, even games against FCS opponents. The SRS is simply the sum of a team's margin of victory and its strength of schedule. Strength of schedule is easily calculated; it's the average SRS rating of all of a team's opponents (iterated hundreds of times to ensure that we get "true" strength of schedule ratings). Margin of victory could be easy to calculate, except I've decided to adjust the typical MOV in order to give us more accurate results. In addition to giving each road team three points, there's a cap and a floor for each game. Wins of fewer than 7 points (after including HFA) are counted 7-point wins; wins of greater than 24 points are counted as the average of 24 points and the actual margin of victory (after including HFA). The only exception is FCS games are uncapped.

rank team conf conf rk Gms MOV SOS SRS W L
1 Texas B12 1 10 24.7 46.0 70.7 10 0
2 Florida SEC 1 10 21.3 45.8 67.1 10 0
3 Alabama SEC 2 10 18.0 49.0 67.0 10 0
4 TCU MWC 1 10 23.6 43.2 66.7 10 0
5 Oklahoma B12 2 10 16.8 47.0 63.7 6 4
6 Oregon P10 1 10 14.2 49.3 63.5 8 2
7 Virginia Tech ACC 1 10 11.0 51.5 62.5 7 3
8 Cincinnati BigE 1 10 20.9 41.3 62.2 10 0
9 Georgia Tech ACC 2 11 12.0 49.9 61.9 10 1
10 Clemson ACC 3 10 14.2 47.4 61.6 7 3
11 Boise St WAC 1 10 22.7 38.7 61.3 10 0
12 Ohio State B10 1 11 15.0 43.9 58.9 9 2
13 Nebraska B12 3 10 12.1 46.4 58.5 7 3
14 Stanford P10 2 10 10.5 47.6 58.1 7 3
15 Arkansas SEC 3 10 10.5 47.6 58.0 6 4
16 Miami FL ACC 4 10 7.2 50.7 57.9 7 3
17 Pittsburgh BigE 2 10 15.3 42.2 57.5 9 1
18 Mississippi SEC 4 10 13.3 43.8 57.1 7 3
19 Penn State B10 2 11 15.4 41.0 56.4 9 2
20 LSU SEC 5 10 10.0 46.3 56.3 8 2
21 Oklahoma St B12 4 10 11.4 44.8 56.2 8 2
22 Southern Cal P10 3 10 6.0 49.1 55.0 7 3
23 Texas Tech B12 5 10 11.2 43.7 54.9 6 4
24 Tennessee SEC 6 10 6.6 48.2 54.8 5 5
25 Oregon St P10 4 10 7.5 47.2 54.7 7 3
26 California P10 5 10 8.2 46.4 54.6 7 3
27 Arizona P10 6 9 7.4 46.8 54.3 6 3
28 Boston College ACC 5 10 8.4 45.7 54.1 7 3
29 Iowa B10 3 11 6.9 46.7 53.6 9 2
30 Florida St ACC 6 10 0.9 52.1 53.0 5 5
31 Auburn SEC 7 11 5.9 46.7 52.6 7 4
32 Missouri B12 6 10 5.9 46.7 52.6 6 4
33 Brigham Young MWC 2 10 11.5 41.1 52.6 8 2
34 Notre Dame INDY 1 10 4.3 47.5 51.8 6 4
35 Georgia SEC 8 10 2.1 49.7 51.7 6 4
36 Wisconsin B10 4 10 7.4 44.3 51.7 8 2
37 Air Force MWC 3 11 14.5 37.1 51.6 7 4
38 North Carolina ACC 7 10 6.3 45.2 51.5 7 3
39 West Virginia BigE 3 10 6.6 44.5 51.1 7 3
40 Nevada WAC 2 10 10.2 40.2 50.3 7 3
41 Connecticut BigE 4 9 5.4 44.7 50.1 4 5
42 Utah MWC 4 10 8.5 41.5 50.0 8 2
43 South Carolina SEC 9 11 0.1 49.7 49.8 6 5
44 UCLA P10 7 10 0.2 49.4 49.6 5 5
45 Michigan St B10 5 11 6.5 43.1 49.5 6 5
46 Wake Forest ACC 8 11 -1.1 50.5 49.4 4 7
47 Houston CUSA 1 10 10.9 38.3 49.2 8 2
48 Central Michigan MAC 1 10 14.8 34.2 49.0 8 2
49 Fresno St WAC 3 10 8.4 40.6 48.9 6 4
50 Navy INDY 2 11 6.4 42.3 48.7 8 3
51 Kentucky SEC 10 10 4.5 44.1 48.5 6 4
52 South Florida BigE 5 9 8.7 39.5 48.2 6 3
53 Arizona St P10 8 10 2.3 45.3 47.6 4 6
54 Mississippi St SEC 11 10 -1.0 48.3 47.4 4 6
55 Rutgers BigE 6 9 13.2 34.2 47.3 7 2
56 Kansas B12 7 10 3.5 43.8 47.3 5 5
57 Texas A&M B12 8 10 0.4 45.7 46.1 5 5
58 Washington P10 9 10 -7.6 52.9 45.3 3 7
59 Kansas St B12 9 11 2.0 43.0 45.1 6 5
60 East Carolina CUSA 2 9 2.8 42.0 44.9 5 4
61 Minnesota B10 6 11 -2.5 47.2 44.8 6 5
62 Baylor B12 10 10 -3.2 47.6 44.4 4 6
63 Virginia ACC 9 10 -4.9 49.1 44.2 3 7
64 Southern Miss CUSA 3 10 8.8 35.0 43.8 6 4
65 Purdue B10 7 11 -3.1 46.8 43.7 4 7
66 North Carolina St ACC 10 10 1.0 42.2 43.2 4 6
67 Northern Illinois MAC 2 10 11.7 31.1 42.8 7 3
68 Temple MAC 3 10 8.4 34.3 42.7 8 2
69 Michigan B10 8 11 2.4 40.2 42.7 5 6
70 Central Florida CUSA 4 10 0.7 41.7 42.4 6 4
71 Tulsa CUSA 5 9 5.8 36.6 42.4 4 5
72 Duke ACC 11 10 0.7 41.7 42.4 5 5
73 Iowa St B12 11 11 -1.1 43.4 42.3 6 5
74 Troy SunB 1 10 3.4 38.9 42.3 7 3
75 Marshall CUSA 6 10 -0.1 41.9 41.9 5 5
76 Bowling Green MAC 4 10 -0.3 40.9 40.6 5 5
77 Middle Tennessee St SunB 2 10 5.3 35.2 40.5 7 3
78 Louisiana Tech WAC 4 10 0.4 40.0 40.4 3 7
79 SMU CUSA 7 10 -0.4 40.5 40.1 6 4
80 Colorado B12 12 10 -6.3 45.8 39.5 3 7
81 Ohio U. MAC 5 10 4.8 34.7 39.5 7 3
82 Northwestern B10 9 11 1.7 37.6 39.3 7 4
83 Illinois B10 10 10 -5.7 44.9 39.3 3 7
84 Vanderbilt SEC 12 11 -6.8 45.4 38.7 2 9
85 Indiana B10 11 11 -3.5 42.1 38.6 4 7
86 Idaho WAC 5 11 -2.6 40.3 37.7 7 4
87 Louisiana-Monroe SunB 3 10 1.7 35.5 37.2 6 4
88 Alabama-Birmingham CUSA 8 10 -1.9 38.9 37.0 5 5
89 Louisville BigE 7 10 -6.5 43.2 36.7 4 6
90 Utah St WAC 6 10 -3.3 39.8 36.5 3 7
91 Colorado St MWC 5 10 -8.9 45.2 36.3 3 7
92 Wyoming MWC 6 10 -6.5 42.5 36.0 5 5
93 Syracuse BigE 8 10 -8.9 44.9 36.0 3 7
94 UNLV MWC 7 11 -7.1 42.8 35.7 4 7
95 San Diego St MWC 8 10 -4.6 40.3 35.7 4 6
96 Maryland ACC 12 10 -12.3 47.8 35.5 2 8
97 Buffalo MAC 6 10 -2.8 38.0 35.2 3 7
98 Arkansas St SunB 4 9 0.6 33.5 34.0 2 7
99 Hawai`i WAC 7 10 -4.6 38.3 33.7 4 6
100 UTEP CUSA 9 10 -6.2 39.6 33.4 3 7
101 Kent St MAC 7 10 -0.7 34.0 33.3 5 5
102 Western Michigan MAC 8 11 -2.1 35.3 33.2 5 6
103 Florida Atlantic SunB 5 9 -6.1 38.8 32.7 3 6
104 Toledo MAC 9 10 -9.3 39.3 30.0 4 6
105 Louisiana-Lafayette SunB 6 10 -5.6 35.3 29.7 5 5
106 Florida Int'l SunB 7 10 -7.6 37.2 29.6 3 7
107 Memphis CUSA 10 10 -11.3 40.6 29.3 2 8
108 Washington St P10 10 10 -22.6 50.8 28.2 1 9
109 San José St WAC 8 9 -19.1 46.9 27.9 1 8
110 Miami OH MAC 10 11 -15.4 43.0 27.7 1 10
111 Akron MAC 11 10 -10.0 37.7 27.7 2 8
112 Army INDY 3 10 -7.0 34.2 27.3 4 6
113 North Texas SunB 8 10 -10.0 36.3 26.3 2 8
114 Ball St MAC 12 10 -9.2 35.4 26.2 1 9
115 New Mexico MWC 9 10 -18.3 42.6 24.3 0 10
116 Tulane CUSA 11 10 -16.3 39.6 23.4 3 7
117 Rice CUSA 12 10 -20.0 42.9 22.9 1 9
118 New Mexico St WAC 9 10 -15.8 36.7 20.9 3 7
119 Eastern Michigan MAC 13 10 -20.7 39.4 18.8 0 10
120 Western Kentucky SunB 9 10 -20.0 38.0 18.1 0 10

Conference ratings:

conf rat
SEC 54.1
B12 51.8
ACC 51.4
P10 51.1
BigE 48.6
B10 47.1
MWC 43.2
WAC 39.7
CUSA 37.5
MAC 34.4
SunB 32.3

With six teams still undefeated, let's take a closer look at how the SRS came to grade each of those 6 teams. The tables below list each team's performance (according to the SRS) from best to worst.

Month Day Tm1 PF Tm2 PF home? fcs gm? MOV SOS SRS
10 31 Texas 41 Oklahoma St 14 no no 27 56.2 83.2
10 24 Texas 41 Missouri 7 no no 30.5 52.6 83.1
11 14 Texas 47 Baylor 14 no no 30 44.4 74.4
9 26 Texas 64 UTEP 7 yes no 39 33.4 72.4
10 17 Texas 16 Oklahoma 13 neu no 7 63.7 70.7
11 7 Texas 35 Central Florida 3 yes no 26.5 42.4 68.9
9 5 Texas 59 Louisiana-Monroe 20 yes no 30 37.2 67.2
9 12 Texas 41 Wyoming 10 no no 29 36.0 65.0
9 19 Texas 34 Texas Tech 24 yes no 7 54.9 61.9
10 10 Texas 38 Colorado 14 yes no 21 39.5 60.5
Month Day Tm1 PF Tm2 PF home? fcs gm? MOV SOS SRS
9 26 Florida 41 Kentucky 7 no no 30.5 48.5 79.0
9 12 Florida 56 Troy 6 yes no 35.5 42.3 77.8
10 31 Florida 41 Georgia 17 neu no 24 51.7 75.7
10 10 Florida 13 LSU 3 no no 13 56.3 69.3
9 5 Florida 62 Charleston Southern 3 yes yes 56 11.1 67.1
11 14 Florida 24 South Carolina 14 no no 13 49.8 62.8
9 19 Florida 23 Tennessee 13 yes no 7 54.8 61.8
10 24 Florida 29 Mississippi St 19 no no 13 47.4 60.4
11 7 Florida 27 Vanderbilt 3 yes no 21 38.7 59.7
10 17 Florida 23 Arkansas 20 yes no 0 58.0 58.0
Month Day Tm1 PF Tm2 PF home? fcs gm? MOV SOS SRS
9 26 Alabama 35 Arkansas 7 yes no 24.5 58.0 82.5
10 10 Alabama 22 Mississippi 3 no no 22 57.1 79.1
11 14 Alabama 31 Mississippi St 3 no no 27.5 47.4 74.9
9 5 Alabama 34 Virginia Tech 24 neu no 10 62.5 72.5
10 3 Alabama 38 Kentucky 20 no no 21 48.5 69.5
11 7 Alabama 24 LSU 15 yes no 7 56.3 63.3
10 17 Alabama 20 South Carolina 6 yes no 11 49.8 60.8
9 19 Alabama 53 North Texas 7 yes no 33.5 26.3 59.8
10 24 Alabama 12 Tennessee 10 yes no 0 54.8 54.8
9 12 Alabama 40 Florida Int'l 14 yes no 23 29.6 52.6
Month Day Tm1 PF Tm2 PF home? fcs gm? MOV SOS SRS
10 24 TCU 38 Brigham Young 7 no no 29 52.6 81.6
11 14 TCU 55 Utah 28 yes no 24 50.0 74.0
11 7 TCU 55 San Diego St 12 no no 35 35.7 70.7
9 26 TCU 14 Clemson 10 no no 7 61.6 68.6
10 31 TCU 41 UNLV 0 yes no 31 35.7 66.7
10 17 TCU 44 Colorado St 6 yes no 29.5 36.3 65.8
9 12 TCU 30 Virginia 14 no no 19 44.2 63.2
10 3 TCU 39 SMU 14 yes no 22 40.1 62.1
10 10 TCU 20 Air Force 17 no no 7 51.6 58.6
9 19 TCU 56 Texas St-San Marcos 21 yes yes 32 23.9 55.9
Month Day Tm1 PF Tm2 PF home? fcs gm? MOV SOS SRS
9 7 Cincinnati 47 Rutgers 15 no no 29.5 47.3 76.8
9 12 Cincinnati 70 SE Missouri St 3 yes yes 64 11.9 75.9
10 15 Cincinnati 34 South Florida 17 no no 20 48.2 68.2
9 19 Cincinnati 28 Oregon St 18 no no 13 54.7 67.7
10 24 Cincinnati 41 Louisville 10 yes no 26 36.7 62.7
10 31 Cincinnati 28 Syracuse 7 no no 24 36.0 60.0
9 26 Cincinnati 28 Fresno St 20 yes no 7 48.9 55.9
10 3 Cincinnati 37 Miami OH 13 no no 25.5 27.7 53.2
11 13 Cincinnati 24 West Virginia 21 yes no 0 51.1 51.1
11 7 Cincinnati 47 Connecticut 45 yes no 0 50.1 50.1
Month Day Tm1 PF Tm2 PF home? fcs gm? MOV SOS SRS
9 26 Boise St 49 Bowling Green 14 no no 31 40.6 71.6
9 3 Boise St 19 Oregon 8 yes no 8 63.5 71.5
10 24 Boise St 54 Hawai`i 9 no no 36 33.7 69.7
9 18 Boise St 51 Fresno St 34 no no 20 48.9 68.9
11 14 Boise St 63 Idaho 25 yes no 29.5 37.7 67.2
9 12 Boise St 48 Miami OH 0 yes no 34.5 27.7 62.2
10 31 Boise St 45 San José St 7 yes no 29.5 27.9 57.4
11 6 Boise St 45 Louisiana Tech 35 no no 13 40.4 53.4
10 14 Boise St 28 Tulsa 21 no no 10 42.4 52.4
10 3 Boise St 34 UC-Davis 16 yes yes 15 23.8 38.8

Final note: the biggest SRS win of the season occurred yesterday, with the Stanford pounding USC in the Coliseum. Not only were the 55 points the Cardinal scored the most by any Trojan opponent, but Stanford's adjusted margin of victory of 30.5 points combined with USC's rating of 55.0 gives Stanford an 85.5 point game, the most in college football this season. The previous best game was Oregon's 42-3 victory over Cal (84.6), which was also threatened this weekend by Oklahoma's 65-10 drubbing of Texas A&M (registering an 84.1 on the SRS Richter scale).

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 15th, 2009 at 10:44 am and is filed under College. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.