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ShareThisRemember when 300 yard passing games were for losers?
One of the Sunday traditions on NFL Countdown was to list the 300 yard passers and 100 yards rushers from each week of action, and then point out how more frequently the 100 yard rushers won. It was a prime exhibit for those who get their correlations crossed with their causations to use in order to point out that establishing the run is what wins in football. If you've been paying attention this year, you may have noticed that even that old canard about 100 yard rushers versus 300 yard passers has disappeared. I'm going to show you some astonishing numbers. Here is the W/L record when a player has 100 yards rushing, or 300 yards passing, going back to 2002 (oh, and curse you Donovan McNabb and Tommy Maddox).
300 yard passers 100 yard rushers ========================================================================== W L PCT W L PCT ========================================================================== 2009 41 18 0.695 45 19 0.703 2008 47.5 28.5 0.625 100 30 0.769 2007 43 38 0.531 105 37 0.739 2006 39 29 0.574 112 47 0.704 2005 29 33 0.468 115 23 0.833 2004 36 45 0.444 135 44 0.754 2003 29 31 0.483 107 44 0.709 2002 44.5 34.5 0.563 96 40 0.706 ==========================================================================
Those numbers include six shootouts in which both teams had a 300 yard passer, as well as two games where each team had a 100 yard rusher, and one game where one team had two rushers reach that mark. In games where one team has a 300 yard passer and the other doesn't, the record for the 300 yard passer is 35-12 (.744), compared to 42-17 (.712) in games where a team has at least one 100 yard rusher and the other does not.
Up until last year, teams that had a passer reach 300 yards won about half the time. The numbers for 100 yard rushers have held steadily north of 70%. Last year's mark of 0.625 was the highest since 1962 (NFL), when passers went 15-5-1 when throwing for 300 yards, and this year's percentage is exceeding last year. Last year, the 47 games won by teams with a 300 yard passer were the most ever. And so far this year, we are at 41, and every team still has seven games left. To put that in historical perspective, from 1970-1977, quarterbacks who threw for 300 yards won a total 45 games, over 8 seasons. We are almost there in nine weeks.
Weather should slow that pace down, but judging by the ratios from the last seven years (on average, there were forty-three 300 yard games from 2002-2008 through game 9), we are looking at somewhere in the range of ninety-eight 300 yard passing games in 2009. That would be the highest total ever. The previous high (90) was in 1995, the expansion year when Carolina and Jacksonville joined. That total dropped immediately to 50 the next year, so it was a freak anomaly partially aided by the expansion dilution year. The two other spikes in the percentage of 300 yard games were also directly attributable to either profound rule changes or massive expansion. The rule changes in 1978 to assist the passing game resulted in a four-fold increase in 300 yard games within a few years. The formation of the AFL and expansion from 12 to 22 professional teams led to a spike in high passing yardage games in the NFL from 1961 to 1963.
This one seems different. We are eight years removed from the last expansion. We are five years removed from some rules changes. I know Chase has some thoughts on this that he might write up. What do you think? Anomaly, or definite trend?
This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 17th, 2009 at 12:41 pm and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
I'd say it's the top QBs being on the good teams and they're the ones throwing for a lot of yards this season. There are a lot of bad teams & defenses out there to feast on as well. These bad teams don't really have QBs capable of putting up 300 yards in losses. Quinn/Anderson can't even put up 100.
Manning, Brady, Roethlisberer and Brees are 20-1 when throwing for 300 this year. The only loss was of course Brady against Manning.
Manning has gone 15-3 in his last 18 games of 300 yards (dating back to the 2006 AFC-C), and all 3 losses were to the Chargers.
Good point about the expansion/rule changes. I'm also curious why in 2007 the league-wide comp. % jumped up to 61% (and has stayed there) when it was always under 60%. Not sure the "Michael Vick went to jail, Patriots went all Moss-Welker, Kurt Warner took over in Arizona, Brett Favre has limited his bombs, Collins over Vince Young in TEN" argument can completely wipe out JaMarcus Russell and Cleveland QBs playing this year.
I tempted to say it's just one of those crazy years--like 2004--but this seems like the third straight year that quarterbacks have been almost freakishly good, at least from a statistical perspective. Although, even the eye test tells me that Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Eli, Schaub and, yes, Romo are better than ever. Peyton and Brady look prime. Warner is stil operating at a high level. Rodgers often looks elite. Hell, even Favre right now has a career high in Y/A and is having by far his most efficient season.
Is it possible the NFL is simply in the midst of a QB rennaisance like when it had Montana/Marino/Elway/Moon/Esiason/Kelly/Young/Aikman/Favre at various points in their careers?
i think Rock is right. we see a season, when all good QBs of this era are in good form their offenses are set up very well. QBs also got some help by Brady-rule, so they can throw easier. you also have to notice, that in this season there is big gap between teams. We have lot of very good teams and lot of weak teams. and of course there are suprises sometimes, but there are no questions in a lot of games. and thats the most important, that there are a lot of weak teams, so the strong one can throw (as they have good QBs). it's also important to look at the OL's of the drafts. they are very big, so pass protection can work better.
i think in some years we get back to normal play management
I wrote before that good passing leads to less passing, and that's why QBs need to be judged on a per attempt rather than an aggregate basis. That remains true. But passing is getting better and better nearly every season, and it's just so much easier to pass effectively now than it was 25 years ago. Teams are much better at passing, and that leads to two things that are impacting your 300-yard passer W/L records:
1) Passing is becoming more optimal each year. Since rushing effectiveness is relatively static, this means teams are getting better in an absolute and a relative sense at passing the ball. Therefore, even good teams will pass more often. If you're up 20-13, you're going to pass. You also know that your opponent won't have difficulty driving down the field and scoring, so you better score first. This was not the case in the '70s.
2) There has probably always been a minimum threshold of effectiveness needed. So while usually 300-yard passing teams lose, I suspect that usually 100-yard passing teams have lost, too. Being at least decent relative to average has always been important. Now, as the average creeps higher and higher, a 300-yard passing day is not a sign of a QB passing to win but merely a sign of a QB that's good at his craft. Last year there were 19 QBs who had 300 yards and 10 Y/A in a game (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/shU6e); in 1977, there were two (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/ZNmpM).
Winning teams throw the ball about 50% more often than in 1973 (20 att -> 30 att)
Losing teams only throw the ball about 25% more often than in 1973 (28 att -> 35 att)
I think that goes a long way towards explaining why there are relatively more 300 yard passing winners than in the early/mid 1970s, but almost all of that change happened from 1977 to 1981. Why there'd be more now than 2002, I don't really know.
I haven't put together some kind of robust statistical analysis to support what I'm about to suggest, but my theory is that the league is leaning more heavily on passing as a clock/possession controlling tool than before. Historically, players have racked up 100+ yard rushing games in winning efforts because the leading team is using the strategy to milk the clock. Today 300+ yard QB efforts more frequently have a clock controlling component to them than before, when high passing numbers almost always = a team playing from behind trying to quickly get back in a game.
Short passing attempts have taken away from a few rushing attempts as a clock control strategy. QBs are relying upon hot reads for 3-4 yard pickups, RBs are being asked to catch more balls, etc. The generic evidence points supports this to some extent. Pass YPA are up (due to higher completion rates) but YPC are down (due to shorter routes). The pass/rush attempt ratio is also historically high (over 1.2 PA per RA). I wouldn't necessarily chalk it all up to the rapid changes in the game from 1975-85 either. These ratios are higher today than they were 5-10 years ago as well. Anecdotally, think about 1&goal from the 4 situations today vs. 10-15 years ago. Ovewhelmingly, it used to be the case that you would see 3 rushing plays run in succession (with exceptions for the better QBs). Today everyone is mixing in the pass more with some success.
The past data shows that throwing is a better strategy when you're behind. The current data shows that throwing is not just a better strategy when behind, but a better strategy all the time. Given the rise of spread offenses in college, trickling up to the NFL (See Brady/Manning in the shotgun), we have some trends that can explain the change.
Of course, it could just be variance. The cadre of 10-12 teams that win the most games could have a disproportionate number of highly productive QBs compared to prior years.
Conventional wisdom is that we have more running back committees these days and fewer true feature backs.
I was thinking a hard 300 yard limit could skew things -- not so much from 2002 to 2009 but when comparing over a longer timespan. So I tried to ask a related question. I ignored individiual players and looked at team stats -- How often does the winning team get significantly more rushing/receiving yards than the loser? For significantly, I just used 10% more.
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2725/4114596188_7fe6299bdc_o.png
The trend y'all noticed is present with this altered question too. Everything stays relatively constant up to around 2005, then winning teams are suddenly more likely to get big passing numbers and less likely to get big rushing numbers. 2009 thus far is in uncharted territory for either metric, at least going back to 1970.
Health may play a part, too. Of the top 21 QBs by ANY/A (min: 50 attempts), only two have missed starts because of injury: McNabb (9th) and Hasselbeck (20th). Each of them missed only two starts. Chad Pennington is the only worthy 'starting' QB on IR.
The other top-ranked QBs not to have made a full 9 starts are Vince Young and Kevin Kolb.
Clearly, throwing for 300 yards can be a sign that a team threw a lot of attempts, and was trailing. The number of 300 yard losses is actually right in line with recent history, so the number of teams who are getting lots of yards while trailing is consistent.
It's the 300 yard games where the team is not having to throw late that has increased dramatically in just the last two years.
I think Nat is right. I suspect teams (who are already good at passing the ball) are now more willing to throw when ahead in the fourth quarter. So those 250 yard games where the QB had a nice YPA and a lead in the past are becoming 300 yard games where the QB has a nice YPA and a few more attempts late.
I forgot about the "Brady Rule", but I can't imagine that it has had *that* much impact in its first season. This looks like something that has continued from 2007 and 2008.
What's the ratio/percentage of Passing Yards to Total Yards this year compared to years past? Is that ratio similar to years past?
Maybe defenses are worse than in years past, and simply just allow more yards?
Average possessions per game? Average plays per game? Maybe it's a volume thing?
I think a nice portion of this can be attributed to the league protecting their starting QBs a LOT of late. When Brady went down last year the NFL *really* took notice. The enforcement of all of these silly QB penalties has taken a serious toll on the agressiveness of Defensive players when they are in the area of the QB. If a defender hits or is taken to the ground now they are basically taken out of the play...God forbid they actually be allowed to stick their arm out to try and grab the QB below the waist.
There is no doubt that even before the Brady injury the NFL had been starting to tighten the calls against defenders hitting QBs. When you have 1st string guys going the whole year your going to see the results in the numbers...look at how many starting QBs were able to play 16 games without an injury from say 1995 to 2005. I would be willing to bet that that number has been trending upward significantly the last 3 years.
@Nat - you may be on to something. In 2002 the Raiders used their short passing game as a substitute for a running game(Charlie Garner had just under 1000 yards each rushing and receiving). Then again in 2006 teams tried to take away Manning's deep passes by playing a lot of cover-2 and he ate up the clock with long drives consisting of 7 and 10 yard passes.
Maybe teams are noticing that a high percentage pass can keep your offense on the field and wear down defenses. And you can eat up the clock if you throw those passes over the middle.
The explosion of great pass catching tight ends may be part of it also. They generate mismatches (very few linebackers can run with a good TE and their size gives the QB a pretty big target to hit) across the middle of the field and usually have very high completion rates. Two things that help eat up the clock.
I think it's just coming from a building mindset that the passing game can be the foundation of an offense - as opposed to a desperate measure. Bill Walsh may have popularized it 30 years ago, but so many coaches that have been in the league over the past 30 years grew up under the "establish the run" mindset. Maybe we have finally filtered out many/most of the coaches who think running is most important. I'm sure that the proliferation of spread offenses in college football is helping make passing acceptable and providing the NFL with players (linemen, WR, etc.) better suited to the passing game.
It is interesting (coincidental?) that at the exact same time the passing game is peaking that some teams are going to a more run-oriented offense like the Wildcat. Admittedly, all but Miami only uses the Wildcat a couple times per game max.
@ Richie. I think it's interesting that you bring up the Wildcat, because it is really a running substitute for the short pass/West Coast spread type of offenses that have become more popular over the last few years. The name of the game today is deception (rather than power). Linebackers and safeties have become very quick/athletic so they're quick to fill holes and stuff the run, just as they are quick to close space under a 20-30 yard throw. Spreading the defense laterally (in a short passing game or in a Wildcat type of run/deception offense)isolates defenders and reduces the time players have to react. The Wildcat is just the running counterpart in the deception game.
I think many of the comments here have hit on reasons. The spread becoming more popular, particularly with the success that the Pats had with it in 2007, using 4 and 5 WRs to create mismatches against 4th and 5th DBs, and the use of WR screens as an extension of the rushing game have probably all had an impact on this statistic. And, I think that the rules changes (or, to be more accurate, adjustments in league focus) have increasingly favored the passing game in recent years. Even though there haven't been major rules changes, each year the league introduces or discusses particular rules that are emphasized, and I think that these points of emphasis have favored the passing game each of the last few years. Certainly, the "Brady rule" has.
I think it's a trend because we're seeing more and more QBs who throw over 50 times a game and win, and the way the league is evolving it's going to get more so.
Remember when 4,800 passing yards in a season meant 'no competition' for your job in the forseeable future?
Well now you can be on pace for that 3/4s of the way through the season and be benched. Ask Kyle Orton. That should tell you alot about what has happened to passing offense---------everybody can do it because the LEAGUE wants it that way with it's rules, be they changes or 'more stricter enforcement'.
Kyle Orton's 3,600+ passing yards through 12 games was so NOT a big deal that he was benched.
Fear is being taken out of the game for receivers and QBs. Used to be if you didn't want your QB to get hurt, you'd have to protect him better---------by keeping more players in th block... a 2nd TE, a blocking FB, etc.
Now the LEAGUE takes care of that for you... and you can send everybody out into a pass pattern.
Baseball players bat with body armor on. They crowd the plate because there's NO fear. It's made a difference for hitters.
The same thing is happening in football. No fear is changing the game.