PI Finds: Rivers Seems to Have the Broncos’ Number
Posted by Neil Paine on November 20, 2009
Philip Rivers leads the Chargers into battle against the Denver Broncos again on Sunday, and San Diego has to feel pretty good about its chances with No. 17 at the helm.
That's because, out of all the players in NFL/AFL history to face the Broncos franchise, no quarterback has ever performed better against Denver than Rivers -- and it's not particularly close.
Minimum 200 attempts, here are the all-time leaders in passer rating vs. the Denver Broncos:
| Rk | Player | From | To | Lg | Tm | G | W | L | T | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rivers | 2005 | 2009 | NFL | SDG | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 132 | 200 | 66.0% | 1933 | 13 | 4 | 110.7 |
| 2 | Len Dawson | 1962 | 1974 | TOT | KAN | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 460 | 54.8% | 4095 | 37 | 18 | 95.3 |
| 3 | Jeff Hostetler | 1992 | 1996 | NFL | TOT | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 137 | 242 | 56.6% | 1689 | 13 | 3 | 91.1 |
| 4 | Rich Gannon | 1990 | 2003 | NFL | TOT | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 285 | 444 | 64.2% | 3020 | 21 | 12 | 88.4 |
| 5 | John Hadl | 1962 | 1975 | TOT | TOT | 23 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 299 | 581 | 51.5% | 4565 | 43 | 21 | 87.3 |
| 6 | Joe Montana | 1979 | 1994 | NFL | TOT | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 130 | 226 | 57.5% | 1682 | 9 | 5 | 85.1 |
| 7 | Tom Flores | 1960 | 1966 | AFL | RAI | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 121 | 239 | 50.6% | 1863 | 18 | 10 | 84.4 |
| 8 | Steve DeBerg | 1979 | 1991 | NFL | TOT | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 138 | 236 | 58.5% | 1742 | 8 | 6 | 82.3 |
| 9 | Trent Green | 1998 | 2006 | NFL | TOT | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 232 | 382 | 60.7% | 2868 | 13 | 12 | 82.2 |
| 10 | Drew Bledsoe | 1995 | 2005 | NFL | TOT | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 173 | 304 | 56.9% | 1983 | 11 | 5 | 81.9 |
| 11 | Ken Anderson | 1971 | 1984 | NFL | CIN | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 142 | 238 | 59.7% | 1631 | 6 | 4 | 81.8 |
| 12 | Tom Brady | 2001 | 2009 | NFL | NWE | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 134 | 236 | 56.8% | 1517 | 10 | 5 | 81.5 |
| 13 | Dave Krieg | 1980 | 1996 | NFL | TOT | 24 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 400 | 697 | 57.4% | 4832 | 35 | 27 | 79.4 |
| 14 | Daryle Lamonica | 1963 | 1973 | TOT | TOT | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 158 | 334 | 47.3% | 2524 | 22 | 14 | 77.5 |
| 15 | Ken Stabler | 1971 | 1980 | NFL | TOT | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 232 | 395 | 58.7% | 3178 | 19 | 22 | 77.4 |
| 16 | Jon Kitna | 1998 | 2007 | NFL | TOT | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 142 | 261 | 54.4% | 1795 | 12 | 9 | 77.0 |
| 17 | Stan Humphries | 1992 | 1996 | NFL | SDG | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 197 | 346 | 56.9% | 2281 | 12 | 11 | 75.3 |
| 18 | Bill Kenney | 1980 | 1988 | NFL | KAN | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 163 | 309 | 52.8% | 2101 | 12 | 9 | 75.2 |
| 19 | George Blanda | 1960 | 1975 | TOT | TOT | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 255 | 533 | 47.8% | 3773 | 36 | 26 | 73.6 |
| 20 | Jay Schroeder | 1986 | 1992 | NFL | TOT | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 125 | 248 | 50.4% | 1879 | 11 | 10 | 73.6 |
Rivers also boasts the best career yards per attempt against Denver, as well as the top completion percentage.
And if you pro-rated his lifetime statistics vs. Denver into a full 16-game season (using his career mark of 453 attempts per 16 games), Rivers has amassed the equivalent of a 4,378-yard, 29-to-9 TD-INT ratio campaign against the Broncos. Very impressive numbers indeed.
November 20th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
They showed something on MNF about Rivers having the highest scoring average against one team (like 39 ppg against Denver). Manning against the Bengals and Favre against someone (can't recall) were the top 3.
November 20th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
I think it's a lot closer than the numbers suggest. Average passer rating increases about 1 point every 3 years, and Dawson's career there is about 39 years older than Rivers'... You'd have to tack on 13 points to Dawson's number to account for era, which puts him right around equal with Rivers over a lot more games.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Dawson, on almost 500 attempts, averaged 8.9 Y/A and a TD rate of 8.0%. Craaaazy numbers. And a 20-2 record? Wow!
Passer rating is a bad stat. I ignore it as much as possible. Although in Rivers' favor is a gaudy 9.7 Y/A against the Broncos...that is freakishly good and considering that Rivers throws the best deep ball in the league(and seems to throw it deep more than anyone else), I wouldn't be surprised if he continue that kind of success in the next meeting, even with Denver's improved D.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Manning actually has better numbers against Denver than Rivers does. 70.1% completions, 17 TDs, 3 INTs, 8.68 YPA, 116.4 PR. That's counting playoffs, giving him 224 attempts against Denver.
November 21st, 2009 at 4:12 am
He he. I remember a post here on the site which told me to beware of arbitrary cutoffs. Rivers has EXACTLY 200 att. against Denver.
Seriously though: I just don't believe in "having somebody's number". I think it's a combination of beating up a team that has been very bad on defense and being a good QB. Both of which can be said for Rivers and the Broncos. Watch as this rivalry goes on, Rivers' numbers will decline. He'll probably regress to the mean, but most of the decline will be due to the Broncos' defense improving (Mike Nolan, regression to the mean).
November 21st, 2009 at 5:59 pm
200 att is a bit arbitrary but you can drop that minimum down to 100 attempts and Rivers 10.07 AY/A would still be #1, his passer rating #2 behind Peyton Manning.
I think Denver qualifies as fairly average in the pass defense department over the last several years combined.... The extrapolated stats from the article are pretty much in line with Rivers' season numbers last year:
4,378 yards, 29 TDs and 9 INTs
4,009 yards, 34 TDs, 11 INTs.
That 10+ AY/A is pretty spectacular though.
November 22nd, 2009 at 9:14 am
Another QB that's the best ever against one team is playing his cupcake today: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/MEuQX
November 22nd, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Chase, I was going to say how amazing it is that Kordell Stewart was better against the Ravens than Big Ben, but then I remembered how putrid there defense was in the '96-'98 timeframe. I distinctly remember that their receivers were good fantasy football pickups those years because they were always playing from behind.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:12 pm
So both Rivers & PM led dominant defenses to victory yesterday.
Or something.