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NCAA: SRS ratings through thirteen weeks

Posted by Chase Stuart on November 29, 2009

Last week's SRS rankings

Peter R. Wolfe's college games scores

While little changed at the top -- only Ndamukong Suh and the Cornhuskers stand in the way of the seemingly inevitable Texas-Floribama BCS Championship Game -- it was a wild rivalry week in college football. The only two one-loss teams both lost to their biggest rivals; Oklahoma State got smashed by SRS-favorite and Bedlam rival Oklahoma; Clemson, Utah, North Carolina and Ole Miss, all in the top 25 in the AP, lost battles to their in-state rivals, as well. Up top, Texas A&M and Auburn both came oh-so-close to pulling off big upsets, to the dismay of most of the population of Fort Worth, Cincinnati and Boise. There are now six undefeated teams in the FBS, zero one-loss teams, and nine two-loss teams (with six of them in BCS conferences, and half of those in the Big 10).

The full SRS rankings:

rk team conf confrk MOV SOS SRS W L
1 Texas B12 1 23.8 44.8 68.6 12 0
2 Florida SEC 1 23.1 44.2 67.3 12 0
3 Alabama SEC 2 19.1 45.9 65.1 12 0
4 TCU MWC 1 24.8 38.6 63.4 12 0
5 Virginia Tech ACC 1 13.5 48.2 61.8 9 3
6 Oregon P10 1 13.5 47.9 61.4 9 2
7 Oklahoma B12 2 13.9 46.6 60.5 7 5
8 Boise St WAC 1 22.0 37.3 59.2 12 0
9 Cincinnati BigE 1 19.9 39.2 59.1 11 0
10 Georgia Tech ACC 2 10.3 48.1 58.4 10 2
11 Arkansas SEC 3 10.5 47.5 58.0 7 5
12 Ohio State B10 1 15.0 41.9 56.9 10 2
13 Miami FL ACC 3 9.3 47.5 56.8 9 3
14 Clemson ACC 4 11.5 45.2 56.7 8 4
15 Nebraska B12 3 11.9 44.1 55.9 9 3
16 Penn State B10 2 16.4 39.5 55.9 10 2
17 Texas Tech B12 4 12.0 43.9 55.9 8 4
18 LSU SEC 4 8.3 47.2 55.5 9 3
19 Pittsburgh BigE 2 13.9 41.1 55.0 9 2
20 Stanford P10 2 8.6 46.3 54.9 8 4
21 Mississippi SEC 5 10.2 43.7 53.9 8 4
22 Southern Cal P10 3 7.0 46.8 53.8 8 3
23 Tennessee SEC 6 7.3 46.5 53.7 7 5
24 California P10 4 8.2 45.4 53.7 8 3
25 Oregon St P10 5 9.5 43.4 52.9 8 3
26 Oklahoma St B12 5 7.5 45.0 52.5 9 3
27 Auburn SEC 7 4.8 47.7 52.4 7 5
28 Arizona P10 6 6.1 46.3 52.3 7 4
29 Iowa B10 3 7.0 44.2 51.2 10 2
30 Georgia SEC 8 1.6 49.5 51.1 7 5
31 Brigham Young MWC 2 10.7 40.4 51.1 10 2
32 Missouri B12 6 6.1 44.9 51.0 8 4
33 North Carolina ACC 5 7.0 43.9 50.9 8 4
34 South Carolina SEC 9 1.3 49.0 50.3 7 5
35 West Virginia BigE 3 6.0 44.0 50.0 8 3
36 Connecticut BigE 4 7.1 42.7 49.8 6 5
37 Houston CUSA 1 15.0 34.8 49.7 10 2
38 Boston College ACC 6 5.8 43.3 49.1 8 4
39 Nevada WAC 2 10.7 38.4 49.1 8 4
40 Utah MWC 3 9.3 39.7 49.0 9 3
41 Notre Dame INDY 1 2.4 46.2 48.6 6 6
42 Air Force MWC 4 12.1 36.5 48.6 7 5
43 Florida St ACC 7 -1.3 49.6 48.3 6 6
44 Kentucky SEC 10 3.8 44.4 48.2 7 5
45 Wisconsin B10 4 6.7 41.4 48.1 8 3
46 Central Michigan MAC 1 15.7 32.2 47.9 10 2
47 Texas A&M B12 7 1.6 46.3 47.9 6 6
48 Mississippi St SEC 11 -1.6 48.9 47.2 5 7
49 Wake Forest ACC 8 0.2 47.0 47.2 5 7
50 UCLA P10 7 -0.8 47.7 46.9 6 6
51 Fresno St WAC 3 7.6 38.6 46.2 7 4
52 Michigan St B10 5 3.6 42.2 45.9 6 6
53 East Carolina CUSA 2 6.0 39.8 45.9 8 4
54 Kansas B12 8 0.2 45.4 45.6 5 7
55 Arizona St P10 8 0.8 44.3 45.0 4 8
56 Navy INDY 2 5.3 39.8 45.0 8 4
57 South Florida BigE 5 5.8 38.7 44.4 7 4
58 Rutgers BigE 6 11.5 32.9 44.4 8 3
59 Kansas St B12 9 1.0 43.2 44.1 6 6
60 Washington P10 9 -4.5 48.3 43.8 4 7
61 Minnesota B10 6 -3.0 45.9 42.9 6 6
62 Central Florida CUSA 3 4.3 38.5 42.8 8 4
63 Purdue B10 7 -1.2 43.8 42.7 5 7
64 Troy SunB 1 6.4 35.9 42.3 9 3
65 Southern Miss CUSA 4 7.3 34.7 42.1 7 5
66 Virginia ACC 9 -7.2 49.2 42.0 3 9
67 Middle Tennessee St SunB 2 8.0 33.3 41.3 9 3
68 North Carolina St ACC 10 -1.3 42.4 41.2 5 7
69 Temple MAC 2 8.0 33.1 41.1 9 3
70 Baylor B12 10 -5.6 46.5 40.9 4 8
71 Iowa St B12 11 -1.6 42.3 40.7 6 6
72 Michigan B10 8 1.0 39.5 40.6 5 7
73 Duke ACC 11 -1.9 42.2 40.3 5 7
74 Ohio U. MAC 3 5.8 34.1 39.9 9 3
75 Colorado B12 12 -6.2 46.1 39.9 3 9
76 Louisiana Tech WAC 4 0.3 39.4 39.7 3 8
77 Northern Illinois MAC 4 8.2 31.4 39.7 7 5
78 Bowling Green MAC 5 1.8 37.4 39.1 7 5
79 Illinois B10 9 -6.0 44.6 38.6 3 8
80 Northwestern B10 10 1.6 36.8 38.4 8 4
81 Vanderbilt SEC 12 -7.2 45.3 38.1 2 10
82 Marshall CUSA 5 -2.2 39.8 37.6 6 6
83 Tulsa CUSA 6 1.5 35.9 37.4 5 7
84 SMU CUSA 7 0.3 36.9 37.1 7 5
85 Syracuse BigE 7 -8.0 43.7 35.7 4 8
86 Indiana B10 11 -4.9 40.6 35.7 4 8
87 Maryland ACC 12 -10.8 46.5 35.6 2 10
88 Buffalo MAC 6 0.4 35.2 35.6 5 7
89 Utah St WAC 5 -4.6 39.8 35.3 4 8
90 Idaho WAC 6 -3.0 38.0 35.0 7 5
91 Alabama-Birmingham CUSA 8 -3.5 38.4 34.9 5 7
92 Wyoming MWC 5 -7.4 41.9 34.5 6 6
93 UNLV MWC 6 -5.9 40.4 34.5 5 7
94 Louisville BigE 8 -8.1 42.0 33.9 4 8
95 Hawai`i WAC 7 -2.4 36.1 33.7 6 6
96 UTEP CUSA 9 -3.0 36.4 33.4 4 8
97 Colorado St MWC 7 -8.0 40.9 32.9 3 9
98 Louisiana-Monroe SunB 3 -1.0 33.7 32.7 6 6
99 San Diego St MWC 8 -6.6 38.6 32.0 4 8
100 Arkansas St SunB 4 -0.8 31.6 30.8 3 8
101 Western Michigan MAC 7 -2.6 32.7 30.1 5 7
102 Kent St MAC 8 -3.4 32.7 29.3 5 7
103 Toledo MAC 9 -6.8 36.0 29.2 5 7
104 Florida Atlantic SunB 5 -6.5 35.6 29.2 4 7
105 Louisiana-Lafayette SunB 6 -5.8 34.1 28.4 6 6
106 Memphis CUSA 10 -12.0 40.1 28.2 2 10
107 Florida Int'l SunB 7 -10.5 38.4 27.8 3 8
108 Akron MAC 10 -8.8 34.9 26.1 3 9
109 Army INDY 3 -5.7 31.6 25.9 5 6
110 Ball St MAC 11 -9.5 35.1 25.6 2 10
111 Washington St P10 10 -23.4 48.7 25.3 1 11
112 San José St WAC 8 -16.5 41.4 24.9 2 9
113 Miami OH MAC 12 -16.3 40.7 24.5 1 11
114 New Mexico MWC 9 -17.8 42.2 24.4 1 11
115 North Texas SunB 8 -9.5 33.8 24.3 2 10
116 Rice CUSA 11 -20.0 41.1 21.1 2 10
117 Tulane CUSA 12 -17.0 38.0 20.9 3 9
118 New Mexico St WAC 9 -16.1 35.6 19.5 3 9
119 Western Kentucky SunB 9 -18.8 35.3 16.5 0 11
120 Eastern Michigan MAC 13 -19.7 36.0 16.3 0 12

Conference rankings

conf rat
SEC 53.4
B12 50.3
ACC 49.0
P10 49.0
BigE 46.5
B10 45.2
MWC 41.2
WAC 38.1
CUSA 35.9
MAC 32.6
SunB 30.4

Week 14 should feature some terrific showdowns, as five of the BCS conferences will be decided this week. A quick preview:

5) Clemson vs. Georgia Tech. Orange Bowl committee, don't fret: your ACC champion will be on at least a one-game winning streak! The ACC, looking like arguably the deepest conference in football a week ago, had a miserable Thanksgiving. Clemson and Georgia Tech, winners of the Atlantic and Coastal divisions, respectively, both lost to 6-5 SEC teams. Florida State completed the trifecta as the Seminoles got destroyed by Tim Tebow (he was the only player for Florida, right?) in Gainesville. Going 0-3 against the SEC won't do anything to improve the ACC's public perception, and we now have an ACC Championship Game with both teams entering on a losing streak. SRS says: Georgia Tech is 1.7 points better than Clemson. In other words, a toss-up.

4) Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh. Just like above, this game lost a lot of luster with the Panthers loss to West Virginia this week. Had Pitt won, I'd put this game of (would-be) Big East undefeateds at #2; now, the only stories are whether the Big East gets to send its best team to the BCS, whether the Bearcats can possibly slide into #2 in the BCS if Texas loses, and how many times "Brian Kelly" and "Notre Dame" are mentioned in the same sentence. SRS says: Cincinnati should be a 1.1 point road favorite.

3) Texas vs. Nebraska. The Big 12 championship game is taking place at Jerry World, but that's the only new thing about this matchup. In the last five B12 championship games, the South has beaten the North by a combined score of 233-51. That's an average margin of victory of 36 points! Oklahoma, the South representative in '07 and '08, scored 100 points in those two games. In UT's last appearance in this game, they beat an overmatched Colorado squad 70-3. This game should be closer, but I'm not sure if Nebraska is going to score many more points than the '05 Buffaloes did. SRS says: Texas is a 12.7 point favorite. The game is in Dallas (closer to UT than Nebraska) and the Huskers QB Zac Lee was injured this past weekend against Colorado. Tune in to watch arguably the best player in the country (and likely top-five pick in April) Ndamukong Suh, the incredible defensive tackle for Nebraska. Stay to watch Colt McCoy cement his Heisman bid.

2) The Civil War: Oregon vs. Oregon State. Last year, Oregon came into Corvalis and upset the Beavers and deprived them of a Rose Bowl bid; that victory instead gave USC the conference title. This year, it's winner-take-all in the Civil War; whoever wins in Eugene this year will win the Pac-10, and represent the conference in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State. In one of the great rivalries in college football, the stakes have never been higher. SRS says: Oregon's 8.5 points better than Oregon State, and that's before factoring in that Oregon's at home. If the Ducks lose this one, it would be a surprise.

1) Floribama, Part 2. For the second straight year, the SEC Championship Game takes place in Atlanta between the Gators and the Tide. Last year, the Gators were the clear better team despite the inferior record; Florida was a 10-point favorite entering that matchup. The '08 SECCG was an instant classic, as Florida trailed entering the fourth quarter until the Tebow Child emerged to steal the win (and cover the spread). This year, both teams have played dominant football all season long. As good as the game was last year, this one looks even better. The opening line was Florida -3.5, but following Alabama's poor showing in the Iron Bowl, the Gators are now 5.5 point favorite. SRS says: Florida should be a 2.2 point favorite. The winner of the SECCG has gone on to win the BCS Championship Game in each of the past three seasons.

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 29th, 2009 at 11:59 am and is filed under BCS, College. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

8 Responses to “NCAA: SRS ratings through thirteen weeks”

  1. Tim Truemper Says:
    November 30th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

    An Ole Miss fan speaks! How does Arkansas, at 7-5 and losers big time to Ole Miss a few weeks ago, and just recently to LSU (who lost to Ole Miss two weeks ago) rate above Ole Miss. Surely the loss to MSU was not that much of a killer for them? And what did Arkansas do to get to #11? Just curious (and not really so much outraged).

  2. Chase Stuart Says:
    November 30th, 2009 at 12:59 pm

    Tim,

    Arkansas's best four games were @Texas A&M (28 point road win against a team with a 47.9 point SRS rating), 36 point win vs. Troy (42.3 SRS rating), 21 point home win against Auburn (52.4 rating) and a "tie", a 3-point road loss to Florida (67.3). So Arkansas has 4 games of nearly 70 SRS points; it's only two bad games are a 11 point home loss to Georgia (51.1 SRS, so that's a 37.1 SRS score) and a 25 point road loss to 'Bama (which is still worth 40.6 SRS points).

  3. Knobbe Says:
    November 30th, 2009 at 7:19 pm

    SUHHHHHHHH!

  4. Chase Stuart Says:
    November 30th, 2009 at 7:25 pm

    Here's a more complete breakdown, Tim. Basically, the Mississippi game for Arkansas was one of their worst performances, while that game was one of Ole Miss' best.

    Mon Day   Tm1        PF   Tm2              PF   diff  MOV   SOS    SRS
10    3   Arkansas   47   Texas A&M        19    28   26    47.9   73.9
11   14   Arkansas   56   Troy             20    33   28.5  42.3   70.8
10   10   Arkansas   44   Auburn           23    18   18    52.4   70.4
11   21   Arkansas   42   Mississippi St   21    21   21    47.2   68.2
10   17   Arkansas   20   Florida          23     0    0    67.3   67.3
11    7   Arkansas   33   South Carolina   16    14   14    50.3   64.3
 9    5   Arkansas   48   Missouri St      10    38   38    21.1   59.1
11   28   Arkansas   30   LSU              33     0    0    55.5   55.5
10   31   Arkansas   63   Eastern Michigan 27    33   28.5  16.3   44.8
10   24   Arkansas   17   Mississippi      30   -10  -10    53.9   43.9
 9   26   Arkansas    7   Alabama          35   -25  -24.5  65.1   40.6
 9   19   Arkansas   41   Georgia          52   -14  -14    51.1   37.1
                                                      10.5  47.5   58.0

Mon  Day  Tm1         PF   Tm2             PF   diff  MOV   SOS    SRS
11   14   Mississippi 42   Tennessee       17    22   22    53.7   75.7
10   24   Mississippi 30   Arkansas        17    10   10    58.0   68.0
10   17   Mississippi 48   Alabama-Birm.   13    32   28    34.9   62.9
 9   19   Mississippi 52   SE Louisiana St  6    43   43    15.5   58.5
 9    6   Mississippi 45   Memphis         14    34   29    28.2   57.2
10    3   Mississippi 23   Vanderbilt       7    19   19    38.1   57.1
11   21   Mississippi 25   LSU             23   - 1    0    55.5   55.5
11    7   Mississippi 38   Northern Ariz.  14    21   21    25.8   46.8
 9   24   Mississippi 10   South Carolina  16   - 3   -7    50.3   43.3
10   10   Mississippi  3   Alabama         22   -22  -22    65.1   43.1
10   31   Mississippi 20   Auburn          33   -10  -10    52.4   42.4
11   28   Mississippi 27   Mississippi St  41   -11  -11    47.2   36.2
                                                      10.2  43.7   53.9
  5. John Says:
    December 4th, 2009 at 1:42 am

    You guys seriously need a page that explains all your endless acronyms that you introduce :) MOV and SOS are not explained on your glossary page, or by hovering over the column header, and I was unable to find anything that explains them.

  6. Tim Truemper Says:
    December 4th, 2009 at 7:38 am

    Thanks Chase for the clarification. I figured the rankings were number based, just wasn't sure how it happened per PFR calculations.

  7. MattieShoes Says:
    December 4th, 2009 at 2:56 pm

    John:
    MOV is Margin of Victory
    SOS is Strength of Schedule
    SRS is Simple Rating System (MOV+SRS)

    They do have a page with acronyms, but the ones in question haven't made their way onto it :-)

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/glossary.htm

  8. MattieShoes Says:
    December 5th, 2009 at 6:30 am

    http://ducks.fandome.com/video/116735/This-Is-Why-Oregon-Doesnt-Have-A-Rap-Scene/

    Because there just isn't enough white guy college football based raps. Heheheh

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