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More home cookin’

Posted by Doug on May 22, 2006

Last week I posted this breakdown of success rates at home versus on the road on third (or fourth) and one when the play was close. I'm just going to throw out a few similar breakdowns here. As I said in the previous post, I don't think it's possible to determine from the stats whether there is an officiating-related home field advantage, so I'm going to refrain from commenting much. I just thought you might be interested in the numbers.

First, here is the dual breakdown to the one I presented last week. The first column is the exact data I presented in the last post. The second column contains the conversion rates on plays that were not close (and hence where a spot couldn't have made a difference).

Success rates on rushing plays on (3rd-or-4th)-and-1


When the play is close When not close
=========================================================
home team 48.7% 87.2%
road team 40.8% 86.7%

And here is some further detail:

All (3rd-or-4th)-and-1 rushing attempts


Gain<0 Gain=0 Gain=1 Gain>1
=============================================
home team 8.3% 17.7% 16.9% 57.0%
road team 8.2% 22.8% 15.7% 53.3%

Finally, these data should give us an idea of what the overall home field advantage is on 3rd down (and 4th down) plays.

Success rates on all (3rd-or-4th)-and-N plays


N Home Road
========================
1 68.6% 66.0%
2 53.3% 51.2%
3 52.7% 53.0%
4 48.1% 47.3%
5 42.6% 40.4%
6 44.9% 40.8%
7 36.2% 39.0%
8 32.1% 31.5%
9 33.2% 29.2%
10+ 21.0% 19.2%

This entry was posted on Monday, May 22nd, 2006 at 4:08 am and is filed under Home Field Advantage. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.