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ShareThisBest draft classes
Using my still-in-beta approximate value method (which you can read about here, here, here, and here), I decided to identify the best draft classes since 1970.
The obvious choice is the 1974 Steelers' draft, which produced three Hall of Famers and one other guy who also got elected to the Hall of Fame. Pacifist Viking, however, makes a strong case for the 1986 49ers' class which lacks Canton residents but boasts seven players who started for five or more seasons. Nailing down a third of a team for half a decade in a single draft is pretty impressive.
My method ranks these classes #2 and #4 respectively. In between them is the 1981 Saints class, which is even deeper (but also even more lacking in true star power) than the '86 49ers' class. The Saints landed an astounding 12 players who would be NFL starters for at least two seasons. To give you a sense, consider Russell Gary. He started every game of the first four years of his career, and was even named by the UPI to the all-NFC team one year. He was, according to my method, the seventh-best player drafted by the Saints in 1986.
Before I reveal #1, let me describe the method.
I looked at every player drafted since 1970 and noted his value. Then, for each team-year, I computed what percentage of that year's entire draft value was captured by that team. This allows me to compare the 1981 draft (in which all players have completed their careers) with the 2007 draft (in which all drafted players have registered very little career value so far) on equal footing. It also allows me to fairly compare a 12-round draft of the 80s to the 7-round drafts that are the norm today. One more adjustment. I multiplied every team's fraction by: (number of teams in the league)/32, because, obviously, it's easier to capture a higher percentage of the overall draft value if there are fewer teams drafting.
A few things I did not do (why? I guess because it would have been more work than I was willing to do for what really should just be a fun post):
1. I didn't make any adjustments for what percentage of the player's career value was accrued with the team that drafted him. The Falcons get full credit for drafting Favre.
2. I didn't adjust for the slots in which the team was drafting. Presumably, it's harder to get a good draft class from the #26 slot than it is from the #2 slot. Likewise, it's easier to draft a lot of good players if you have a lot of picks. I didn't account for these things.
OK, here we go:
1987 Pittsburgh Steelers Rnd pick Value ===================================== Rod Woodson 1 10 179 Hardy Nickerson 5 122 135 Greg Lloyd 6 150 114 Tim Johnson 6 141 55 Thomas Everett 4 94 49 Merril Hoge 10 261 42 Delton Hall 2 38 13 Charles Lockett 3 66 5 Joey Clinkscales 9 233 2 Theo Young 12 317 1 Charles Buchanan 8 205 1 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers Rnd pick Value ===================================== Jack Lambert 2 46 139 Mike Webster 5 125 130 John Stallworth 4 82 104 Lynn Swann 1 21 73 Jimmy Allen 4 100 36 Charles Davis 9 229 30 Tommy Reamon 9 223 4 Jim Wolf 6 149 4 Rich Druschel 6 150 1 1981 New Orleans Saints Rnd pick Value ===================================== Rickey Jackson 2 51 157 Jim Wilks 12 305 85 Hoby Brenner 3 71 58 Frank Warren 3 57 56 George Rogers 1 1 53 Johnnie Poe 6 144 46 Russell Gary 2 29 31 Jerry Boyarsky 5 128 20 Glen Redd 6 166 16 Hokie Gajan 10 249 14 Louis Oubre 5 112 13 Toussaint Tyler 9 222 3 Nat Hudson 6 139 2 1986 San Francisco 49ers Rnd pick Value ===================================== Charles Haley 4 96 106 Steve Wallace 4 101 92 John Taylor 3 76 68 Don Griffin 6 162 65 Tim McKyer 3 64 52 Tom Rathman 3 56 47 Kevin Fagan 4 102 42 Larry Roberts 2 39 26 Pat Miller 5 131 2 Tony Cherry 9 240 1 1971 Pittsburgh Steelers Rnd pick Value ===================================== Jack Ham 2 34 153 Larry Brown 5 106 86 Frank Lewis 1 8 82 Mike Wagner 11 268 77 Dwight White 4 104 74 Ernie Holmes 8 203 47 Gerry Mullins 4 86 41 Ralph Anderson 5 126 20 Steve Davis 3 60 14 Craig Hanneman 6 138 7 Mel Holmes 5 112 2 Al Young 13 320 1 1989 Dallas Cowboys Rnd pick Value ===================================== Troy Aikman 1 1 133 Steve Wisniewski 2 29 102 Mark Stepnoski 3 57 79 Tony Tolbert 4 85 74 Daryl Johnston 2 39 31 Keith Jennings 5 113 17 Rhondy Weston 3 68 2 Randy Shannon 11 280 2 Willis Crockett 5 119 1 1987 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rnd pick Value ===================================== Vinny Testaverde 1 1 156 Mark Carrier 3 57 80 Winston Moss 2 50 73 Harry Swayne 7 190 63 Ricky Reynolds 2 36 55 Ron Hall 4 87 30 Henry Rolling 5 135 25 Bruce Hill 4 106 24 Curt Jarvis 7 169 15 Don Smith 2 51 6 Mike Simmonds 10 252 2 Don Graham 4 84 1 Tony Mayes 5 137 1 1985 Buffalo Bills Rnd pick Value ===================================== Bruce Smith 1 1 220 Andre Reed 4 86 137 Chris Burkett 2 42 37 Derrick Burroughs 1 14 20 Frank Reich 3 57 20 Dale Hellestrae 4 112 13 Ron Pitts 7 169 11 Hal Garner 3 63 5 Jimmy Teal 5 130 4 Mark Traynowicz 2 29 4 Mike Hamby 6 141 2 Jacque Robinson 8 197 1 1975 Dallas Cowboys Rnd pick Value ===================================== Randy White 1 2 155 Bob Breunig 3 70 81 Pat Donovan 4 90 72 Mike Hegman 7 173 70 Herbert Scott 13 330 65 Thomas Henderson 1 18 33 Burton Lawless 2 44 17 Scott Laidlaw 14 356 16 Randy Hughes 4 96 15 Rolly Woolsey 6 148 6 Ed Jones 9 226 5 Kyle Davis 5 113 1 1975 Chicago Bears Rnd pick Value ===================================== Walter Payton 1 4 170 Mike Hartenstine 2 31 92 Doug Plank 12 291 52 Roland Harper 17 420 35 Virgil Livers 4 83 35 Bob Avellini 6 135 31 Revie Sorey 5 110 30 Tom Hicks 6 151 30 Joe Harris 8 197 17 Roger Stillwell 9 212 14 Earl Douthitt 7 178 1 1972 Cincinnati Bengals Rnd pick Value ===================================== Sherman White 1 2 90 Stan Walters 9 210 84 Jim LeClair 3 54 80 Tom DeLeone 5 106 55 Tommy Casanova 2 29 51 Bernard Jackson 4 81 47 Steve Conley 7 158 1 1974 Baltimore Colts Rnd pick Value ===================================== John Dutton 1 5 99 Robert Pratt 3 67 66 Roger Carr 1 24 61 Fred Cook 2 32 56 Freddie Scott 7 174 48 Noah Jackson 7 161 44 Greg Latta 8 188 19 Doug Nettles 5 129 18 Bob Van Duyne 10 240 12 Dan Dickel 7 170 6 Glenn Robinson 3 57 4 Randy Hall 13 317 2 Tim Rudnick 11 265 1 Danny Rhodes 6 140 1 Dave Simonson 12 292 1 1997 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rnd pick Value ===================================== Warrick Dunn 1 12 114 Ronde Barber 3 66 109 Al Harris 6 169 51 Frank Middleton 3 63 33 Alshermond Singleton 4 128 33 Jerry Wunsch 2 37 27 Reidel Anthony 1 16 22 Patrick Hape 5 137 11 1978 Green Bay Packers Rnd pick Value ===================================== James Lofton 1 6 145 John Anderson 1 26 77 Mike Douglass 5 116 63 Terry Jones 11 284 31 Leotis Harris 6 144 23 Estus Hood 3 62 19 Eason Ramson 12 312 14 Mike Hunt 2 34 9 1977 Dallas Cowboys Rnd pick Value ===================================== Tony Dorsett 1 2 138 Steve DeBerg 10 275 119 Tony Hill 3 62 86 Jim Cooper 6 164 61 Dave Stalls 7 191 24 Andy Frederick 5 137 19 Guy Brown 4 108 16 Glenn Carano 2 54 1 1975 San Diego Chargers Rnd pick Value ===================================== Gary Johnson 1 8 83 Billy Shields 6 136 77 Fred Dean 2 33 74 Rickey Young 7 164 59 Louie Kelcher 2 30 59 Mike Fuller 3 73 46 Mike H. Williams 1 22 45 Ralph Perretta 8 206 14 Larry Keller 9 214 11 1991 Atlanta Falcons Rnd pick Value ===================================== Brett Favre 2 33 237 Mike Pritchard 1 13 51 Erric Pegram 6 145 32 Moe Gardner 4 87 32 Ernie Logan 9 226 29 Bob Christian 12 310 27 Joe Sims 11 283 14 Bruce Pickens 1 3 4 Brian K. Mitchell 7 172 2 Mark Tucker 7 186 1 1978 Miami Dolphins Rnd pick Value ===================================== Doug Betters 6 163 73 Bill Kenney 12 333 66 Karl Baldischwiler 7 178 48 Gerald Small 4 93 44 Bruce Hardy 9 247 44 Eric Laakso 4 106 33 Jimmy Cefalo 3 81 25 Mark Dennard 10 274 23 Ted Burgmeier 5 111 2 Sean Clancy 8 217 2 Lyman Smith 3 64 1 Guy Benjamin 2 51 1 1977 New York Jets Rnd pick Value ===================================== Wesley Walker 2 33 97 Marvin Powell 1 4 95 Joe Klecko 6 144 87 Dan Alexander 8 200 74 Scott Dierking 4 90 35 Kevin Long 7 195 25 Matt Robinson 9 227 13 John Hennessy 10 256 9 Charlie White 7 168 2 1995 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rnd pick Value ===================================== Derrick Brooks 1 28 184 Warren Sapp 1 12 146 Jerry Wilson 4 105 18 Melvin Johnson 2 43 14 Wardell Rouse 6 179 1 2005 Dallas Cowboys Rnd pick Value ===================================== DeMarcus Ware 1 11 36 Marion Barber 4 109 24 Marcus R. Spears 1 20 18 Chris L. Canty 4 132 16 Rob Petitti 6 209 9 Jay Ratliff 7 224 9 Kevin Burnett 2 42 5
For the complete list, you can click here.
For what it's worth, here are all 32 teams ranked according to their average score in all the drafts they've participated in:
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Dallas Cowboys
St. Louis Rams
Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
Green Bay Packers
Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
San Francisco 49ers
Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
Oakland Raiders
Atlanta Falcons
San Diego Chargers
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs
Washington Redskins
Now let's look at the draft classes by position. For each position, for each year, I'll measure the total value of the drafted players at that position that year, divided by the total value of all players drafted that year. With that method, here are the best and worst draft classes at each position:
QB 1971
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Ken Anderson 3 67 173
Jim Plunkett 1 1 120
Joe Theismann 4 99 117
Archie Manning 1 2 100
Lynn Dickey 3 56 83
Dan Pastorini 1 3 73
Scott Hunter 6 140 26
Joe Reed 11 283 15
Bobby Scott 14 340 12
QB 1996
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Tony Banks 2 42 54
Danny Kanell 4 130 14
Bobby Hoying 3 85 3
Jeff Lewis 4 100 2
RB 1990
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Emmitt Smith 1 17 172
Larry Centers 5 115 92
Terry Allen 9 241 74
Chris Warren 4 89 70
Rodney Hampton 1 24 64
Leroy Hoard 2 45 53
Brian Mitchell 5 130 49
Harold Green 2 38 46
Johnny Johnson 7 169 40
Anthony Johnson 2 36 39
Barry Foster 5 128 37
Reggie Cobb 2 30 31
Steve Broussard 1 20 26
Blair Thomas 1 2 21
Johnny Bailey 9 228 20
Dexter Carter 1 25 20
Carwell Gardner 2 42 18
Darrell Thompson 1 19 17
David Lang 12 328 6
Anthony Thompson 2 31 6
Cedric Smith 5 131 6
Pat Chaffey 5 117 4
James Rouse 8 200 2
Richard Bell 12 319 2
RB 1992
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Edgar Bennett 4 103 53
Amp Lee 2 45 37
Sam Gash 8 205 34
Kevin Turner 3 71 31
Tommy Vardell 1 9 20
Charles Evans 11 295 11
Derrick Moore 8 216 10
Scottie Graham 7 188 9
Vaughn Dunbar 1 21 7
Michael Bates 6 150 6
Anthony McDowell 8 200 5
Rodney Culver 4 85 5
Tim Lester 10 255 4
Tony Smith 1 19 4
Dexter McNabb 5 119 2
Ronald Humphrey 8 212 2
Ostell Miles 9 226 1
Scott Lockwood 8 204 1
Mazio Royster 11 284 1
WR 1996
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Marvin Harrison 1 19 157
Terrell Owens 3 89 143
Keyshawn Johnson 1 1 104
Eric Moulds 1 24 98
Muhsin Muhammad 2 43 94
Eddie Kennison 1 18 88
Joe Horn 5 135 87
Amani Toomer 2 34 85
Terry Glenn 1 7 84
Bobby Engram 2 52 70
Jermaine Lewis 5 153 25
Derrick Mayes 2 56 19
Patrick Jeffers 5 159 17
Charlie Jones 4 114 14
Reggie Barlow 4 110 8
Bryan Still 2 41 8
Iheanyi Uwaezuoke 5 160 5
Stepfret Williams 3 94 4
Chris Doering 6 185 4
Dietrich Jells 6 176 2
James Roe 6 186 2
Alex Van Dyke 2 31 2
Terry Guess 5 165 1
Mercury Hayes 5 136 1
Jahine Arnold 4 132 1
Brice Hunter 7 251 1
WR 1973
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Isaac Curtis 1 15 86
Wallace Francis 5 110 38
Darryl Stingley 1 19 31
Golden Richards 2 46 29
Jim Lash 3 65 22
Bo Rather 4 104 16
David Knight 11 272 15
Steve Holden 1 16 11
Barry Smith 1 21 8
Ollie Smith 4 85 8
Charlie Wade 17 442 7
Willie McGee 5 123 6
Johnny Rodgers 1 25 4
Tom Geredine 4 94 3
Louis Neal 5 124 3
Dave Sullivan 15 384 1
Steve Sweeney 9 231 1
TE 1978
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Ozzie Newsome 1 23 101
Todd Christensen 2 56 75
Mickey Shuler 3 61 70
Bruce Hardy 9 247 44
Derrick Ramsey 5 136 29
Reese McCall 1 25 20
Larry Hardy 12 309 16
Eason Ramson 12 312 14
James Wright 7 179 12
Brooks Williams 8 199 10
Ken MacAfee 1 7 7
Conrad Rucker 6 154 2
TE 1971
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Bob Moore 5 123 26
Jan White 2 29 10
Len Garrett 15 374 10
John Andrews 5 130 2
Don Burchfield 13 314 2
OL 1998
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Alan Faneca 1 26 89
Tra Thomas 1 11 75
Flozell Adams 2 38 73
Ephraim Salaam 7 199 66
Jason Fabini 4 111 59
Matt Birk 6 173 57
Benji Olson 5 139 52
Kyle Turley 1 7 51
Olin Kreutz 3 64 49
Todd Weiner 2 47 49
Steve McKinney 4 93 48
Mike Goff 3 78 48
Victor Riley 1 27 45
Jeremy Newberry 2 58 44
Anthony Clement 2 36 42
Chris Liwienski 7 207 40
John Wade 5 148 35
Trey Teague 7 200 28
Oliver Ross 5 138 26
Mo Collins 1 23 24
Bob Hallen 2 53 20
Kevin Long 7 229 14
Robert Hicks 3 68 12
Gennaro DiNapoli 4 109 12
Patrick Mannelly 6 189 9
Todd Washington 4 104 9
Sammy Williams 6 164 6
Mark Fischer 5 140 5
Chris Conrad 3 66 3
Jim Bundren 7 210 3
Ben Fricke 7 213 2
Phil Ostrowski 5 151 2
Chris Ruhman 3 89 1
Jason Andersen 7 211 1
OL 1991
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Erik Williams 3 70 81
Kevin Donnalley 3 79 50
Antone Davis 1 8 43
Pat Harlow 1 11 39
Clarence Jones 4 111 37
Bob Dahl 3 72 31
Gene Williams 5 121 30
Eric Moten 2 47 23
Charles McRae 1 7 19
Ed King 2 29 17
John Flannery 2 44 16
Scott Conover 5 118 16
Mike Arthur 5 130 15
Joe Sims 11 283 14
Harry Boatswain 5 137 11
Jerry Crafts 11 292 9
Rob Selby 3 75 8
Stan Thomas 1 22 7
Jeff Pahukoa 12 311 6
Joe Valerio 2 50 5
Ariel Solomon 10 269 4
Mike Sullivan 6 153 4
Blake Miller 7 168 2
Tim T. Ryan 5 136 2
Mark Vander Poel 4 96 2
Sean Love 10 264 1
Chris Thome 5 119 1
Mark Tucker 7 186 1
Tom Dohring 8 218 1
Calvin Stephens 3 56 1
Nick Subis 6 142 1
DL 1992
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Marco Coleman 1 12 101
Chester McGlockton 1 16 99
Keith Hamilton 4 99 89
Robert Porcher 1 26 87
Santana Dotson 5 132 70
Sean Gilbert 1 3 63
Michael Bankston 4 100 61
Joel Steed 3 67 59
Tracy Scroggins 2 53 51
Chuck Smith 2 51 49
Roy Barker 4 98 48
Brad Culpepper 10 264 47
Alonzo Spellman 1 22 46
Shane Dronett 2 54 45
Mark Wheeler 3 59 39
Tony McCoy 4 105 38
Chris Mims 1 23 38
Robert Harris 2 39 36
Marc Boutte 3 57 34
Bill E. Johnson 3 65 33
Larry Webster 3 70 26
Mark Thomas 4 89 20
Stacey Dillard 6 153 15
Steve Emtman 1 1 14
Matt LaBounty 12 327 11
Reggie E. White 6 147 10
Tim Roberts 5 136 8
Shane Collins 2 47 6
Mike Frier 7 178 5
Corey Mayfield 10 269 4
Tommy Jeter 3 75 3
Michael Brandon 12 309 2
Mario Johnson 10 266 2
Roosevelt Nix 8 199 1
Mike Evans 4 101 1
James Patton 2 55 1
Alberto White 10 268 1
DL 1998
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Greg Ellis 1 8 80
Grant Wistrom 1 6 69
Vonnie Holliday 1 19 64
Greg Spires 3 83 57
Leonard Little 3 65 54
Kenny Mixon 2 49 44
Michael Myers 4 100 43
Brandon Whiting 4 112 39
Joe Salave'a 4 107 24
Derrick Ransom 6 181 16
Chuck Wiley 3 62 15
Lorenzo Bromell 4 102 13
Andre Wadsworth 1 3 13
Eric Ogbogu 6 163 12
Jason Peter 1 14 10
Glen Steele 4 105 10
James Cannida 6 175 8
Martin Chase 5 124 6
Dorian Boose 2 56 4
Jeremy Staat 2 41 3
Ron Warner 7 239 3
Jason Chorak 7 236 1
Vincent Amey 7 230 1
LB 1981
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Lawrence Taylor 1 2 188
Mike Singletary 2 38 164
Rickey Jackson 2 51 157
David Little 7 183 78
Hugh Green 1 7 72
E.J. Junior 1 5 72
Bryan Hinkle 6 156 70
Mel Owens 1 9 53
Jim Collins 2 43 47
Don Blackmon 4 102 41
Eddie Johnson 7 187 41
Dave Ahrens 6 143 32
Steve Busick 7 181 28
Avon Riley 9 243 27
Byron Hunt 9 224 20
Guy Frazier 4 93 19
Glen Redd 6 166 16
Jeff Schuh 7 176 15
John Woodring 6 142 11
Robin Sendlein 2 45 9
Scott Pelluer 4 91 7
Carlos Bradley 11 300 5
Danny Spradlin 5 137 5
Cliff Lewis 12 311 4
Larry Kubin 6 148 4
John Gillen 5 116 3
Derrie Nelson 4 108 3
Lyman White 2 54 2
Al Washington 4 86 1
LB 2001
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Kendrell Bell 2 39 45
Morlon Greenwood 3 88 43
Ed Hartwell 4 126 34
Tommy Polley 2 42 34
Dan Morgan 1 11 32
Matt Stewart 4 102 29
Orlando Huff 4 104 25
Sedrick Hodge 3 70 20
Jamie Winborn 2 47 15
Keith Adams 7 232 15
Monty Beisel 4 107 12
Zeke Moreno 5 139 9
Markus Steele 4 122 8
Patrick Chukwurah 5 157 8
Brian L. Allen 3 83 8
Jason Glenn 6 173 7
Carlos Polk 4 112 7
Torrance Marshall 3 72 6
Eric Westmoreland 3 73 5
Quinton Caver 2 55 5
Brandon Spoon 4 110 5
Roger Knight 6 182 4
Riall Johnson 6 168 2
Anthony Denman 7 213 2
Karon Riley 4 103 1
DB 1989
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Deion Sanders 1 5 122
Carnell Lake 2 34 101
Steve Atwater 1 20 95
Ray Crockett 4 86 75
Greg Jackson 3 78 63
Donnell Woolford 1 11 52
Myron Guyton 8 218 47
Louis Oliver 1 25 46
J.B. Brown 12 315 43
Stevon Moore 7 181 43
Maurice Hurst 4 96 41
Bubba McDowell 3 77 40
Robert Massey 2 46 37
D.J. Johnson 7 174 34
Bo Orlando 6 157 27
Darren Carrington 5 134 25
Darryl Henley 2 53 19
A.J. Johnson 6 149 14
Jay Taylor 6 150 12
Brian Jordan 7 173 11
Alvoid Mays 8 217 9
Johnnie Jackson 5 122 9
Markus Paul 4 95 9
Marcus Turner 11 283 9
Charles Washington 7 185 6
Richard Shelton 11 292 6
Michael Mayes 4 106 3
Stan Petry 4 88 3
Chris Hale 7 193 3
R.J. Kors 12 322 3
Rodney Rice 8 210 2
Cornell Holloway 10 256 2
Calvin Nicholson 11 300 1
Kyle Kramer 5 114 1
Jerry Woods 7 170 1
Thom Kaumeyer 6 148 1
David Arnold 5 118 1
Tony Zackery 8 223 1
Elliot Smith 5 120 1
DB 1979
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Nesby Glasgow 8 207 67
Glenn Blackwood 8 215 56
Dwayne Woodruff 6 161 54
Rick Sanford 1 25 32
Johnny Lynn 4 98 24
Clinton Burrell 6 151 23
Larry Braziel 5 115 22
Lawrence Johnson 2 40 18
Carter Hartwig 8 214 16
Mike Kozlowski 10 272 14
Don Bessillieu 5 134 12
Rod Kush 5 114 11
Donald Dykes 3 68 11
Aaron Mitchell 2 55 10
Kim Anderson 3 69 9
Jeff Nixon 4 87 9
Henry Williams 6 156 6
Charles Johnson 4 101 5
Jeff Delaney 7 190 5
Ricky Ray 6 146 4
Judson Flint 7 177 3
Frank Duncan 12 321 2
Scott Burk 9 223 1
Gerald Jackson 10 260 1
Jim Browner 12 304 1
Steve Henry 5 118 1
Dave Becker 12 312 1
Vaughn Lusby 4 91 1
Dave Parkin 9 239 1
Actually, the computer spit out 2007 as the top DB class, but I threw that out because, well, because it looked silly.
Also, I have to admit that, at first glance, I wasn't completely sure which of those DL groups was supposed to be the best and which was supposed to be the worst. But after a bit more investigation, I guess it adds up. The methodology helps '92 out a little because it was a fairly weak draft overall. Also, while players like Joel Steed and Michael Bankston are pretty forgettable, they're stout if you're talking about the 7th- and 8th-best defensive linemen in a single draft. Other years have better players at the top, but can't match the depth or had to compete with better overall draft classes. Contenders would include 1975, 1970, 1994, and 1979.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008 at 3:50 am and is filed under Approximate Value, History, NFL Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Interesting stuff. The worst draft ever was my Chiefs in 1975 with no value received from 11 picks (in a 17 round draft, I believe).
In their defense, they had no 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th, or 10th. But they had a 2, 3, 6, another 6 and got nothing for them. This on a team that was coming of back-to-back 5-9 seasons and starting six players 30 or older on defense.
By way of draft-related trivia, the starting RG for the '75 Chiefs was 23-year-old Tom Condon in his second season. He played 148 games in 13 seasons, not bad for a 10th round pick.
Would the USFL years make some of the drafts look worse than they actually were? Some players lost some significant career value playing in the alternate league.
mrh, are you saying Morris LaGrand had no value???
Doug, some of the questions I was going to answer in my analysis was to compare players' actual career production to their draft positions and find out which players were good values and which were drafted too soon.
For instance, I have Bo Jackson as the biggest draft bust of all time. Tampa Bay drafted him first overall in 1986 and he never played in the NFL. (He went back into the draft and the Raiders picked him and that version of Bo Jackson was better.)
My best value of all time was Stan White of Baltimore in 1982. He ended up being the 24th-best player from that draft, but was picked in the 17th round. He was a 10-year starter, playing in 153 games and named to 1 All Pro.
I wonder where the 2003 draft comes in at corner. You've got Terrence Newman, Marcus Trufant, Nnamdi Asomugha, Charles Tillman, Rashean Mathis, Drayton Florence, Ricky Manning Jr, Asante Samuel, and Ike at corner, Troy Polamalu, Todd Johnson, and Terrence McGee list as "defensive back", then Eugene Wilson, Ken Hamlin, Mike Doss, and Terrence Kiel at safety.
That's got to be close to '89.
Great work - can't wait to see the algorithm. It's stuff like this that's made this site a regular destination.
One thing though that you could take into account. Measure the players value against the expected value for that slot based on the data from your earlier post. That should normalise for teams like Washington who regularly traded draft picks for players (and as your Jared Allen trade analysis shows, that's not necessarily such a bad idea) That way you can adjust for those freak drafts like San Diego 1983 (IIRC) when they had 3 first rounders and other drafts where teams only have a couple of mid round picks & strike gold...
Another (harder) thing to do is give results by GM. Or decade or something. The chargers were - on the whole - pretty rubbish at drafting until John Butler (May God bless him & keep him for trading Vick for Tomlinson) & AJ Smith came on the scene in 2001. I've done my own "player value" algorithm & I reckon the Chargers are about the best drafting team of the last 5 years - Indy & Dallas run 'em close with Pittsburgh in the hunt (as always)
I think you have a problem with the methodology here. By rewarding players for being starters, you bias the results towards bad teams like the '81 Saints who went 1-15 the year before. It was probably a lot easier for them to find guys who could start for them in the '81 draft because the talent level of the team was so low. The 49ers' drafts are more impressive for that reason--they found players who could come to a playoff team and start immediately. Perhaps there's a way to adjust for this?
Interesting how relatively little difference there seems to be between the best OL class and the worst OL class.
Whitey, using my approximate value methodology, being a starter on a good team gets you more credit than being a starter on a bad team. This exact issue, in fact, is one of the main reasons why I felt I needed to create an AV metric instead of using "number of starters" or the like.
To be specific, the 1981 Saints had 154 points of value to split, while the 1986 49ers had 243 points.
I'm surprised 1983 wasn't the top QB class.
I don't agree with your reasoning that long careers are automatically better than short ones (Testaverde > Aikman). That reasoning also goes against your rule that teams only get credit for players they actually draft (like Atlanta getting credit for Brett Favre). If you place such value on longevity, why not reward teams that keep the players the longest?
This is the 17th best draft in NFL history?
1991 Atlanta Falcons
Rnd pick Value
=====================================
Brett Favre 2 33 237
Mike Pritchard 1 13 51
Erric Pegram 6 145 32
Moe Gardner 4 87 32
Ernie Logan 9 226 29
Bob Christian 12 310 27
Joe Sims 11 283 14
Bruce Pickens 1 3 4
Brian K. Mitchell 7 172 2
Mark Tucker 7 186 1
Atlanta gets 237 points for a QB they treated like a sideshow freak and traded away at the first opportunity?