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ShareThisPI Finds: Is Rodgers Better Than Favre Ever Was in Green Bay?
Brett Favre is having an MVP-caliber campaign for the Vikings this season, which approximately no one saw coming after last year's late-season meltdown with the Jets. But you may be surprised to see that, at least in terms of his rate stats, Favre is actually having arguably the best season of his entire career this year, at the ripe old age of 40! Here are Favre's career-best completion percentages:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | Cmp | Att | Cmp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 40 | MIN | 13 | 295 | 433 | 68.1 |
| 2007 | 38 | GNB | 16 | 356 | 535 | 66.5 |
| 2008 | 39 | NYJ | 16 | 343 | 522 | 65.7 |
| 2003 | 34 | GNB | 16 | 308 | 471 | 65.4 |
| 2004 | 35 | GNB | 16 | 346 | 540 | 64.1 |
Yards per attempt:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | Att | Yds | Y/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 38 | GNB | 16 | 535 | 4155 | 7.8 |
| 2009 | 40 | MIN | 13 | 433 | 3341 | 7.7 |
| 1995 | 26 | GNB | 16 | 570 | 4413 | 7.7 |
| 2001 | 32 | GNB | 16 | 510 | 3921 | 7.7 |
| 2004 | 35 | GNB | 16 | 540 | 4088 | 7.6 |
And, finally, passer rating:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 40 | MIN | 13 | 106.0 |
| 1995 | 26 | GNB | 16 | 99.5 |
| 1996 | 27 | GNB | 16 | 95.8 |
| 2007 | 38 | GNB | 16 | 95.7 |
| 2001 | 32 | GNB | 16 | 94.1 |
But here's where it gets really bizarre... Aaron Rodgers is currently on pace to put up these numbers:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Y/A | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 26 | GNB | 16 | 358 | 546 | 65.5 | 4405 | 31 | 9 | 8.1 | 102.5 |
Let's compare them to Favre's numbers in Green Bay:
| Year | Player | Age | Tm | G | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Y/A | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Rodgers | 26 | GNB | 16 | 358 | 546 | 65.5 | 4405 | 31 | 9 | 8.1 | 102.5 |
| 1995 | Favre | 26 | GNB | 16 | 359 | 570 | 63.0 | 4413 | 38 | 13 | 7.7 | 99.5 |
| 1996 | Favre | 27 | GNB | 16 | 325 | 543 | 59.9 | 3899 | 39 | 13 | 7.2 | 95.8 |
| 2007 | Favre | 38 | GNB | 16 | 356 | 535 | 66.5 | 4155 | 28 | 15 | 7.8 | 95.7 |
| 2001 | Favre | 32 | GNB | 16 | 314 | 510 | 61.6 | 3921 | 32 | 15 | 7.7 | 94.1 |
| 1997 | Favre | 28 | GNB | 16 | 304 | 513 | 59.3 | 3867 | 35 | 16 | 7.5 | 92.6 |
| 2004 | Favre | 35 | GNB | 16 | 346 | 540 | 64.1 | 4088 | 30 | 17 | 7.6 | 92.4 |
| 1994 | Favre | 25 | GNB | 16 | 363 | 582 | 62.4 | 3882 | 33 | 14 | 6.7 | 90.7 |
| 2003 | Favre | 34 | GNB | 16 | 308 | 471 | 65.4 | 3361 | 32 | 21 | 7.1 | 90.4 |
| 1998 | Favre | 29 | GNB | 16 | 347 | 551 | 63.0 | 4212 | 31 | 23 | 7.6 | 87.8 |
| 2002 | Favre | 33 | GNB | 16 | 341 | 551 | 61.9 | 3658 | 27 | 16 | 6.6 | 85.6 |
| 1992 | Favre | 23 | GNB | 15 | 302 | 471 | 64.1 | 3227 | 18 | 13 | 6.9 | 85.3 |
| 2000 | Favre | 31 | GNB | 16 | 338 | 580 | 58.3 | 3812 | 20 | 16 | 6.6 | 78.0 |
| 1999 | Favre | 30 | GNB | 16 | 341 | 595 | 57.3 | 4091 | 22 | 23 | 6.9 | 74.7 |
| 2006 | Favre | 37 | GNB | 16 | 343 | 613 | 56.0 | 3885 | 18 | 18 | 6.3 | 72.7 |
| 1993 | Favre | 24 | GNB | 16 | 318 | 522 | 60.9 | 3303 | 19 | 24 | 6.3 | 72.2 |
| 2005 | Favre | 36 | GNB | 16 | 372 | 607 | 61.3 | 3881 | 20 | 29 | 6.4 | 70.9 |
Other than the TDs, which admittedly dwarf Rodgers' projected total (Favre matched or topped 31 TD on seven occasions in Green Bay) and a slim 8-yard advantage to Favre's best campaign, Rodgers projects to have a higher completion % than Favre ever had in Green Bay, fewer interceptions, more yards per attempt, and a higher passer rating. Like I said... bizarre.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 16th, 2009 at 2:55 pm and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
To temper these numbers a bit, consider that after adjusting for era:
Favre's ANY/Ai is 119, tied for the 6th best of his career. Rodger's ANY/Ai is 116, which is lower than six of Favre's seasons in Green Bay. And while Favre is having a big year, there's no doubt that he's been lucky w/r/t to the low INT totals. If you look at just net yards per attempt (relative to league average) instead of ANY/A, Favre's NY/Ai is 111 this season. That's obviously very good, but it's barely in the top ten of his career.
And all of that is ignoring that Favre now plays in a dome AND has had a very easy schedule. I've got no doubt that when we adjust Favre's numbers after this season for era, weather and SOS, 2009 will look much more like an average Favre season than anything else. It will almost certainly rank outside of the top five.
All of which is true, but try explaining ANY/Ai in a fantasy post at USA Today, which is where this one's headed...
Rodgers has played the Lions twice (and twice last year). Those are probably the worst pass defenses in the NFL in the last 15 years.
5 worst pass defenses (by passer rating) since 1995:
1. 2008 Lions - 110.9
2. 2009 Lions - 108.8
3. 2005 Titans - 100.7
4. 1996 Falcons - 100.6
5. 2005 Texans - 100.0
Favre and Rodgers are in the same division so they're both playing what has been a very easy schedule this year. Both are playing great, but the schedule does matter.
I might re-examine it at the end of the year, but before their first matchup, I posted a comparison of their first 20 starts.
http://rmlumley.com/2009/10/brett-favre-vs-aaron-rodgers-thru-20-starts/
That is what is mind boggling about Aaron Rodgers, he has only started 27 games in his career.
It's easy to throw for a lot of yards and TDs when you're getting sacked every other play and have to pass all the time on 2nd and 3rd and longs
Neil, those regular season numbers for Rodgers do look better, but what do think his main goal is for this year and any year that he is a starter in the NFL? Do you think his main goal is to put up great numbers in the regular season, or to put up good enough numbers to enable him to lead his team to a championship? Which do you think would be more important to him? I'd be interested to read your response.
With regards to just this season, Rogers will do what Favre was not able to do...beat the Steelers.
No Polamalu and no interesting in winning any more games this year from the Steeler side could have a lot to do with that.
That's why I think that post once made here (I believe by Chase) about a team's season being a collection of 16 different teams as opposed to one is a very interesting philosophical debate. How often does a team put the same roster on the field for a game in a season? Winning in the NFL has so much to do with who you play, when you play, and where you play them.
*I meant to say no interest in winning this year for the Steelers. I've never seen anything like it. The way they just fell apart after a strong 6-2 start with double-digit wins over some quality teams. No one can offer up a real explanation.
The craziest Steelers stat was when they fell behind by more than a TD against the Browns, that was the first time they had done so all season long. The last team to never trail by more than a TD in its first 12 games was the 12-0 Broncos in '98.
Pittsburgh's really good, but doesn't win. A statistical outlier to say the least.
Fair enough, Neil. I just figure it's worth pointing out the fact that Favre is having the best statistical season of his career is due largely to an easy SOS, an easier era, playing in a dome, and some luck. He's really not doing much better than how he normally does.
Rob #4, when I clicked on your site, the conclusion was that Rodgers was the better choice than Favre; Favre led the Packers to a conference championship game in '07, and Rodgers failed to lead the Packers into the playoffs in '08. But Rodgers was "THE BETTER CHOICE". Now that's mind boggling.
The era in which they play(namely post 2004) simply makes the idea that Rodgers, in his second season, is beating out any season Favre put up worth beating out simply on his own talent. 2004 rules, Jennings+Driver, and he still only has 15 wins when Favre. A good heir, perhaps one day better, but Favre is probably the reason Green Bay isn't Detroit, and that's why he'll always deserve top billing in my book.
Re: Bob #12, one guy is locked up thru 2014. The other guy is a coin flip every year if he is returning. I'd much rather have a franchise build a team around the former.
I don't know if Brett Favre would have made much of a difference for the 2008 Green Bay Packers. Just ask the 2008 New York Jets.
Silly thought time:
Did Favre have a rough time with the Jets because it was his first time playing FOR an AFC team?
Is there a difference in style between the two conferences?
After JKL's excellent and enlightening posts on the consistency of QB sack rates a few weeks ago I was hoping that I'd never again read an article here discussing QB performance metrics without at least a mention of sack rate. Guess I was a bit too optimistic.
rodgers maybe stats wise but favre has that moxy and is more exciting to watch.
#6 - by that metric, Favre achieved his goals in only one season and is no better than Trent Dilfer over his career.
mrh, the thread is titled-is Rodgers better than Favre ever was in Green Bay. How can anyone possibly try to answer yes to that question, no matter how great Rodgers would play in the regular season-if, if, if, he never accomplishes anything in the playoffs? Here's one for you-what do you think Peyton Manning's offensive teammates would say was a better accomplishment for Peyton, setting the TD record (48 TD passes) in '04 or leading his team to a Super Bowl win in '06? The only guys that should answer are the offensive teammates that played on both teams, and participated in both events. I'm betting you that the response would be 100% for the S.B. win.
Sorry, obviously that should read 49 TD passes.
I watched every single Favre game from 1992-2007, and all I know is, I don't hold my breath waiting for an interception on every other throw anymore. I would take Rodgers in a heartbeat, and let's not pretend that the Vikings wouldn't still be at least 9-4 with Tarvaris Jackson. Also the 2008 Packers were snakebit something terrible and the defense blew a ton of games late; they were much, much better than their 6-10 record.
jiffy, are you aware of this stat-Favre's TD to INT differential is the 2nd best ever; only Peyton Manning's is currently better. (total TD passes minus interceptions). It's appearing more and more all the time that they are the 2 best passing QB's ever in the regular season. But-they are far from that in the playoffs.
Peyton Manning has an adjusted yards per pass of 6.88 in the playoffs, compared to 6.61 for Tom Brady. He didn't do much with that dominant offense in 2007, so I don't want to hear it really.
Your analysis of stats is far from perfect Bob S., that's the only issue I see.
No I don't think when Manning threw for 400 yards and 3 TDs against the Chargers but lost, that he somehow failed to produce that game. He was better there then in various other games, but you need your teammates (Keith, Harrison) to not lose the ball in the redzone.
Favre is great, but he's not quite as consistent as Peyton.
In case you don't understand the issue Bob S., what Chase said that Favre is still better statistically than Rodgers (accounting for the league average).
I don't know about the rest of the Packer fans but I know I definitely feel more comfortable with Rodgers having the ball in his hands at the end of the game instead of Favre. Besides the playoff game this year where he fumbled the touchdown in OT (where he was being facemasked). It is hard to recall Rodgers turning over the ball or failing to give them a scoring opportunity at the end of the close games. There was a few this year during the regular season where he almost pulled off amazing comebacks (Cincinatti,Cardinals playoffs, etc.) Where it seemed impossible to even have a shot at winning those games at one point (particularly the Cardinals game) But if not for a few fluke's at the end via reffing or a poorly timed false start we probably win those games. But I remember when we had Favre at QB, that we never really had a legitimate comeback from more than a TD or 10 points. Plus, over half the time that he was presented with an opportunity to win at the end, he failed, usually by throwing an int. Which is what the Viqueers had to experience int there NFC championship this year. In summary, I think Rodgers has alot of potential to have a better career than favre.