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ShareThisNew Orleans-Indianapolis: Both go 16-0, or both in Super Bowl?
Today, ESPN.com put together a few articles about the Saints and Colts' quest (or non-quest, if they sit their starters) for perfection. In Adam Schefter's mailbag, he was posed this question:
"Q: With just three games left, do you think both the Saints and the Colts will go undefeated the rest of the way and play each other in the Super Bowl? -- Logan (Reno, Nev.)"
Schefter replied:
"A: Logan, I think there is a better chance that each team will go unbeaten in the regular season than there is that these two teams will play in the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl matchup many expect on Dec. 16 is seldom the one that materializes in late January or early February. Don't know which team it'll be, don't know when it'll be, but one of these teams will stub its toe in the postseason. If memory serves me correctly, the last time two No. 1 seeds met in the Super Bowl was in 1993, when the Cowboys beat the Bills. Rarely happens."
My stat-sense was tingling, so I decided to set up a Monte Carlo simulation to see if what Schefter claimed, that Indy and New Orleans both going 16-0 was more likely than them eventually meeting up in the Super Bowl, was true. Using each team's current Pythagorean W% (and a 58.7% home-field advantage, the league-wide rate in 2009) to predict game-by-game outcomes, I simulated the rest of the regular-season and the playoffs 10,000 times, using authentic seedings, matchups, etc. (except that all ties in the standings were broken by Pyth%). Here's what I found:
| Simulations | Colts go 16-0 | Saints go 16-0 | Both go 16-0 | Colts in SB | Saints in SB | Both in SB | Both 16-0, in SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10000 | 4662 | 5760 | 2655 | 4738 | 4684 | 2212 | 584 |
So it turns out that Schefter was, in fact, correct -- provided both teams try their hardest to win all of their remaining games, there's a 26.6% chance both the Saints and Colts finish the regular season 16-0, compared to just a 22.1% chance that the two teams meet up in February. And, of course, there's always a 5.8% chance that both teams go into the big game with no losses, in which case there's a 100% probability that Mercury Morris' head would explode.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 16th, 2009 at 5:52 pm and is filed under Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
I hope it (both 18-0 in the SB) happens. With the season probably getting extended to more games, this could be the last real opportunity the fans have to see two teams make it to the big game undefeated. And I'm totally anti-72 Dolphins.
FWIW, Schefter's memory is correct. 1993 was the last time two #1 seeds met, and even in that season, Buffalo only was the #1 seed based on a tiebreaker. It's been 20 years since the two teams with the untied best records in their respective conferences made the SB. That was in '89, when the 11-5 Broncos and 14-2 49ers made it. Both teams had two more wins than the next best team in their conferences and also were #1 by solid margins according to the SRS.
Both teams have a gimme game, IND against the Bills and NO against the Bucs. Eliminating those games, and both teams have to go 2-0 to go 16-0 and both teams have to go 2-0 in the playoffs to make the SB. Considering the average playoff team would be a little better than the average of Jac/Dal/NYJ/Car, and yeah, this isn't surprising. Jacksonville and Carolina are not very good, especially compared to teams like Sd and Minnesota.
I'm very excited at the prospect of a week of Rex Ryan soundbites against a 14-0 team.
Did anybody else see the CBS pre-game last Sunday when JB asked Cowher if he would rest or play his players in order to go 16-0? Bill said (I'm paraphrasing)-that record means nothing-you play to win the championship. I wonder what Brady and his teammates would answer. I'd love to ask them-which meant more-going 16-0 in the '07 regular season or winning the super bowl in '04 (for those that played on both teams).
Meh. *Everybody's* anti-72 Fins when some team gets past 10-0. The hilarious part is, this year there's been ten times as much blathering about Mercury Morris's blathering as he's ever actually done. I can't even remember him saying anything at all about this year's Colts and Saints actually. But that sure doesn't stop the masses from believing that he and the rest of the '72 Dolphins are EEEEVIL.
The question I always ask is, had the '07 Pats pulled off 19-0, would anyone have ever gotten sick and tired of *them* talking about it? And you know they would have 24/7. Or would Brady openly rooting against every team starting 12-0 for the next 40 years be perfectly okay?
The 72 Dolphins aren't evil. They're just lame.
I'll always have some respect for the 07 Giants for stopping the Patriots, or else that would have been the most disgusting thing ever in the NFL, to have the Patriots go 19-0.
What I don't understand is why people view it as a bad thing for the '72 Dolphins to want to remain the only perfect team. Who has ever broken a record then immediately said "I hope somebody erases my name from the record books someday" (except the '76 Bucs)? It's not like they are trying to sabotage Peyton Manning Tonya Harding-style.
That said, I am a Miami fan, and I think it would be cool to see BOTH teams go to the Super Bowl unbeaten.
"The question I always ask is, had the '07 Pats pulled off 19-0, would anyone have ever gotten sick and tired of *them* talking about it? And you know they would have 24/7. Or would Brady openly rooting against every team starting 12-0 for the next 40 years be perfectly okay?"
The 2007 Patriots inspired more hatred for a team than any I can recall, so I'd say yes, plenty of people would have been sick of all the 19-0 Patriots talk before Super Bowl night was over.
Hell, "18-1" t-shirts were a hot item for a little while.
Perfect season? Blah!
You can't have a perfect season unless you go unbeaten with no penalties against and no turnovers lost
THAT'S a perfect season and it ain't gonna happen ever!
I just ran the #s again after last night's Colts win. Out of 10,000 more seasons:
* 5715 times, Indy went 16-0
* 5797 times, New Orleans went 16-0
* 3338 times, both went 16-0
* 4489 times, the Colts went to the Super Bowl
* 4705 times, the Saints went to the Super Bowl
* 2137 times, both went to the Super Bowl
* 702 times, both went 16-0 and then met in the Super Bowl
The Colts' reduced Super Bowl % is due to the fact that their Pyth% slipped slightly after last night's 35-31 margin.
Well if the Colts want 16-0 there's no way they're going to be stopped from doing it. It's just a matter of playing the right people long enough to win the games.
Let's not look past the Jets. They've got some serious defensive mojo, and the Colts are trying to avoid playing Freeney and Mathis very much, so the Colts D is significantly weaker than it (hopefully) will be in the playoffs.
Looks like Schefter was wrong. Colts vs. Saints! Go COLTS!!!!!
"The question I always ask is, had the '07 Pats pulled off 19-0, would anyone have ever gotten sick and tired of *them* talking about it? And you know they would have 24/7. Or would Brady openly rooting against every team starting 12-0 for the next 40 years be perfectly okay?"
That's not what I know, What I know is that the Patriots let the media do all their talking for them and focus on their next game. If you're speculating about after Brady retires, then fine, all right, speculate all you want. The data set of is currently all of 0yrs 0days 0hrs 0minutes.
Privately rooting that my record never gets broken? that's human nature, but popping champagne corks at every failed opportunity? That's not in good taste.
As far as how hard you try in last two games after starting 14-0, Id rather win the super bowl than go 16-0 and then lose in playoffs *but* Id rather win 3 super bowls and lose a a 4th after starting 18-0 then win 4 super bowls with losses in all 4 regular seasons.