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An AV-based draft chart

Posted by Doug on April 25, 2008

This is my current best attempt at an Approximate value-based draft chart.

I looked at all drafts from 1980--1999. I figured 1980 was late enough to be "modern," 1999 was early enough to have allowed most of the players to have finished their careers, and 20 years was enough to get a decent sample size.

Then, for each player, I computed what I call his "draft value":

Draft Value = (Total approx value of first four seasons) + (90% of AV of fifth season) + (80% of AV of sixth season) + ... + (10% of AV of 13th season)

The basic idea is this. When you draft a player, you're getting roughly his first four years, and then some uncertainty. This was just a quick way for me to capture the fact that there is some chance that your draftees will be helping some other team and not yours in five, six, seven years time. Also, teams presumably value 2008 production more than 2015 production.

Then I looked at the draft values of all players selected in a certain slot, and bunged them down into a chart. Well, sort of. Let me take a line and explain it:

Slot Top3  80  60  40  20
=========================
 22   124  52  39  26  14

This is the line corresponding to the #22 pick in the draft. In order to make things a little smoother, I actually grouped together all the picks from #17 through #27. So what I've got now are 20 years worth of players drafted 17 through 27. That's 220 players. Top3 refers to the average of the three players in that group with the highest draft value. 80 represents the 80th-percentile player in the group, 60 represents the 60th-percentile player, and so on.

So roughly speaking, the Cowboys (who hold the #22 pick), could conceivably get a 124 draft value player if they get really lucky. They have about a 20% chance of getting a 52 or better, a 40% chance of getting a 39 or better, a 60% chance of getting a 26 or better, and an 80% chance of getting a 14 or better.

To give you a sense of what that means, here are some players at various levels and their draft values:

Peyton Manning       140
Ray Lewis            115
Jason Taylor         101
Chris Doleman         94
Michael Dean Perry    81
Eric Moulds           71
Keena Turner          60
Bart Oates            55
Frank Wycheck         50
Jeff Hartings         45
Tyrone Poole          40
Eric Barton           35
Dexter McCleon        30
David Givens          25
Cory Schlesinger      20

Alright then, here is the full chart. Enjoy:

Slot Top3  80  60  40  20
=========================
  1   133  81  61  46  21
  2   133  77  59  45  19
  3   133  77  60  45  20
  4   133  75  59  43  20
  5   133  75  59  42  20
  6   133  73  58  40  20
  7   127  69  57  40  20
  8   117  66  57  40  19
  9   111  65  53  38  18
 10   108  64  50  36  17
 11   112  63  50  35  17
 12   118  61  45  33  17
 13   118  60  45  33  17
 14   119  59  45  32  16
 15   119  59  45  31  16
 16   119  58  44  29  14
 17   119  58  44  29  15
 18   119  57  43  29  15
 19   119  54  43  28  14
 20   119  54  42  27  14
 21   120  54  41  27  14
 22   124  52  39  26  14
 23   122  53  39  25  12
 24   122  53  38  25  12
 25   122  50  37  24  11
 26   122  50  35  21   9
 27   122  48  34  19   7
 28   123  49  32  19   6
 29   123  49  32  18   6
 30   123  48  31  18   6
 31   123  50  34  19   6
 32   123  49  34  19   6
 33   116  50  34  19   5
 34   112  50  31  19   5
 35   114  49  30  17   5
 36   114  49  31  17   5
 37   114  48  31  19   6
 38   114  49  32  19   7
 39   110  49  31  19   7
 40   110  48  31  18   7
 41   110  48  31  19   7
 42   110  47  31  18   6
 43   110  47  29  16   6
 44   103  45  29  17   6
 45   103  45  29  16   5
 46    96  44  30  17   5
 47    96  44  30  16   5
 48    96  44  29  14   4
 49    96  44  28  13   4
 50    96  42  27  13   4
 51    90  41  24  10   3
 52    90  41  23  10   3
 53    90  40  23   9   3
 54    89  40  23  10   4
 55    87  40  21   9   4
 56    85  39  20   9   4
 57    79  35  18   9   4
 58    80  34  20   9   4
 59    80  35  20  10   4
 60    80  35  21  10   4
 61    81  35  20  10   4
 62    81  35  21  10   4
 63    81  35  20  10   4
 64    81  34  20  10   4
 65    81  34  18   9   3
 66    74  33  20   9   3
 67    76  33  20   9   3
 68    85  35  21   9   3
 69    93  36  18   8   3
 70    93  35  17   7   2
 71    93  33  16   7   2
 72    93  33  17   7   2
 73    93  33  16   7   2
 74    93  33  14   6   2
 75    93  31  14   6   1
 76    93  31  14   6   1
 77    93  30  13   4   1
 78    92  30  12   4   1
 79    83  27  12   4   1
 80    71  28  12   4   1
 81    76  30  12   3   1
 82    73  29  10   3   1
 83    73  29  10   3   1
 84    83  27  12   3   1
 85    83  27  10   3   0
 86    83  30  12   3   1
 87    84  29  11   3   1
 88    84  30  13   3   1
 89    84  27   9   3   1
 90    84  27   9   3   1
 91    86  27  11   3   1
 92    83  27  12   3   1
 93    83  28  13   3   1
 94    83  28  12   3   1
 95    74  30  11   3   1
 96    74  30  11   4   1
 97    74  30  11   4   1
 98    71  30  11   4   1
 99    72  27  11   4   1
100    72  29  11   4   1
101    72  27  11   4   0
102    66  26  11   3   0
103    66  24   9   3   0
104    64  23   8   4   0
105    63  22   8   3   1
106    63  20   9   4   1
107    62  21  10   3   0
108    67  21  11   4   0
109    74  26  13   4   0
110    72  26  13   4   0
111    72  23  13   3   0
112    72  23  11   4   0
113    84  24  11   3   0
114    84  24  11   3   0
115    84  24  11   3   0
116    84  24  11   3   0
117    84  23   9   3   0
118    84  21   7   2   0
119    82  18   7   2   0
120    77  18   7   2   0
121    77  17   5   2   0
122    77  17   6   2   0
123    77  18   5   1   0
124    66  18   5   2   0
125    65  17   5   2   0
126    69  17   5   2   0
127    66  17   5   1   0
128    65  18   5   1   0
129    65  19   5   1   0
130    65  19   5   1   0
131    65  17   5   1   0
132    64  18   5   1   0
133    64  18   6   1   0
134    64  18   6   1   0
135    62  18   6   1   0
136    62  19   6   1   0
137    56  18   6   1   0
138    56  17   6   1   0
139    56  16   5   1   0
140    56  17   6   1   0
141    57  17   6   1   0
142    57  17   6   1   0
143    57  16   5   1   0
144    57  15   4   1   0
145    69  15   4   1   0
146    69  14   4   1   0
147    69  13   4   1   0
148    69  14   4   1   0
149    87  14   4   1   0
150    87  14   4   1   0
151    87  13   3   1   0
152    84  14   4   1   0
153    83  15   4   1   0
154    86  17   4   1   0
155    86  16   4   1   0
156    76  16   4   1   0
157    76  17   4   1   0
158    76  17   4   1   0
159    76  16   3   0   0
160    57  16   3   0   0
161    66  17   3   0   0
162    66  17   3   0   0
163    66  17   3   0   0
164    66  16   2   0   0
165    62  14   2   0   0
166    62  15   2   0   0
167    62  13   2   0   0
168    62  11   2   0   0
169    62  11   2   0   0
170    62  10   2   0   0
171    62  11   2   0   0
172    52  10   2   0   0
173    52  10   2   0   0
174    59  10   2   0   0
175    59  10   2   0   0
176    60  12   3   0   0
177    60  11   3   0   0
178    60  12   3   0   0
179    60   9   2   0   0
180    60  10   2   0   0
181    60  10   2   0   0
182    64  11   2   0   0
183    64  12   2   0   0
184    64  11   2   0   0
185    57   8   2   0   0
186    57   8   2   0   0
187    66   8   2   0   0
188    66   8   2   0   0
189    66   8   2   0   0
190    66  10   2   0   0
191    74  10   2   0   0
192    74  10   2   0   0
193    69   8   2   0   0
194    70   7   1   0   0
195    70   8   1   0   0
196    70   8   2   0   0
197    70   9   2   0   0
198    72  11   2   0   0
199    72  10   2   0   0
200    72   9   2   0   0
201    72   8   2   0   0
202    68   9   2   0   0
203    74  11   2   0   0
204    74  12   2   0   0
205    74  12   2   0   0
206    74  12   2   0   0
207    74  12   2   0   0
208    74  10   2   0   0
209    64  10   2   0   0
210    64  11   2   0   0
211    64  10   2   0   0
212    64  10   2   0   0
213    63  10   2   0   0
214    56   9   2   0   0
215    56   9   2   0   0
216    56  10   2   0   0
217    68  10   2   0   0
218    76   9   2   0   0
219    76   9   2   0   0
220    76   9   1   0   0
221    76   9   1   0   0
222    77   9   1   0   0
223    77   9   1   0   0
224    77   9   1   0   0

This entry was posted on Friday, April 25th, 2008 at 4:24 am and is filed under Approximate Value, NFL Draft. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.