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Checkdowns: Colts cutting it close
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I was reading The Count over at the Wall Street Journal, and this article caught my eye. Carl Bialik noted that Indianapolis has won eight of its 14 games by eight points or fewer. This made wonder which team set the record for most wins by eight or fewer points? What records did they have and how did they fare in the post-season?
The table below shows the number of wins of eight or fewer points, the overall wins, losses and ties, and how many wins and losses in the playoffs each team had. While the Colts are cutting it close, three teams won all of their games by such a small margin.
| <8 w | tm | yr | w | l | t | pw | pl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HOU | 1978 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | CAR | 2003 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | IND | 1999 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | NYG | 1994 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | RAI | 1993 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | DEN | 1991 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | WAS | 1986 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | NYG | 1986 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | CLE | 1980 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | IND | 2008 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | WAS | 2008 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | IND | 2006 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 8 | JAX | 2005 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | JAX | 2004 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | CIN | 2003 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | NWE | 2003 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | NYG | 2002 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | NYJ | 2001 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CHI | 2001 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | RAI | 1990 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | SFO | 1990 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | NOR | 1988 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | HOU | 1980 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | STL | 1976 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
But the Colts aren't just cutting it close by winning by a touchdown and a two-point conversion; they've won half of their games by fewer than five points. They've already tied the record for most victories of four or fewer points.
| <4 w | tm | yr | w | l | t | pw | pl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CAR | 2003 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | RAI | 1993 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | SFO | 1990 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | ARI | 1998 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | GNB | 1989 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NYG | 1986 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 6 | IND | 2008 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | SDG | 1987 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | CLE | 1986 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | DEN | 1984 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | RAM | 1978 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | DAL | 2005 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | ATL | 2004 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | MIA | 1992 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The Colts have been cutting it close. As the table above suggests, they've been cutting it closer than just about any team in NFL history. With another tight victory, Indianapolis will become the first team to ever win eight games in a season by fewer than four points. Finally, let's look at all teams in N.F.L. history that have had eight or more games decided by four or fewer points; so we're not just looking at the close wins. Obviously, with no losses, the Colts have played in eight such games. But if their next two games are close, they can tie the record. Same numbers as in the table above, but now I've added columns showing how many wins and losses each team had in these close games.
| 4 w | 4 l | gms | tm | yr | w | l | t | pw | pl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3 | 10 | GNB | 1989 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | 10 | TAM | 2001 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | 10 | CHI | 1999 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 6 | 10 | PHI | 1983 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 7 | 10 | BAL | 1997 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 2 | 9 | CAR | 2003 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | 2 | 9 | ARI | 1998 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | 9 | DAL | 2005 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | 9 | NOR | 1988 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | 9 | IND | 1995 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | 9 | GNB | 1983 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | 9 | DET | 1974 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | 9 | PHI | 1997 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | 9 | NOR | 1983 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 5 | 9 | CRD | 1935 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 5 | 9 | TAM | 1984 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 6 | 9 | WAS | 2003 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 6 | 9 | DET | 1984 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | NWE | 1993 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | SDG | 1970 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | CLE | 1984 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 1 | 8 | RAI | 1993 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | 8 | SFO | 1990 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | 8 | DEN | 1984 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | NYG | 1994 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | HOU | 1980 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | JAX | 1996 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | RAI | 1991 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | IND | 1988 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | SEA | 1978 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | STL | 1974 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | HOU | 2003 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | BUF | 2000 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | HOU | 1991 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | RAM | 1989 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | 8 | TAM | 1979 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | MIN | 1999 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | WAS | 1987 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | DEN | 1985 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | ATL | 1995 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | ARI | 1994 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | MIA | 1994 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | NYJ | 1991 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | NOR | 1990 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | KAN | 2002 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | 8 | SFO | 1980 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | CIN | 1995 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | BAL | 2002 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | DAL | 2002 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | TAM | 1989 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | SDG | 1989 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | TAM | 1988 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | KAN | 1988 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | CIN | 1994 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | MIN | 1972 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | CLE | 1991 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | BUF | 1986 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | GNB | 1991 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | ATL | 1981 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | MIN | 1967 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 7 | 8 | PHI | 1986 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
That's not a typo -- the '84 Browns went 1-8 in close games, ending the season with a 5-11 record. The Browns' fortunes would change completely the next season, as they would win eight games and become the first division winner in league history with eight losses.
This entry was posted on Saturday, December 19th, 2009 at 9:12 am and is filed under Checkdowns. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Great stuff!!!
Note the highly unusual number of wins by 8 or fewer the '03 Pats had. I *always* felt something was just...not quite right about that team and the way they were winning, long before the whole cheating thing came out.
It also just goes to show that luck is a bigger factor in sports than people want to admit, and that winning and losing really do become a habit.
The Colts are scoring 28.14/game. The Houston 78s scored 17.7, allowed 18.6.
You'd think there would be a lot more close games with low scoring mediocre teams. This Colts team seems kind of arrogant about not getting serious until the end. Aren't they setting a record for 4th quarter comebacks, too?
Already have the comeback record at 7. I'm pretty sure they need one more win with the winning points coming in the 4th quarter/OT to set another record. Don't think any team has ever had 8 such wins in a season.
Downpuppy, "kind of arrogant"? I don't see it at all. They have some new players they are breaking in and a new coaching staff. They probably have to work things out if anything. At least Indy's strength of schedule is not low.
It's easy to get "kind of arrogant" about letting games get close when you've got the winningest quarterback in football under center. Manning gets hot at just the right moments, and teams that have large enough leads to put the Colts away fail to generate enough stops on defense. Don't know how long that will last (14 games and counting), but it's been the not-so-hidden ingredient for success.
Except for the Patriot game (17 pt deficit), all of their comeback wins have been pretty normal stuff from a scoreboard standpoint. Just close games, tight games, and the Colts came out on top in the end. I don't know why people associate "comeback" with crazy Monday Night Miracle type stuff so often. Those are rare, very rare.
It's because those are the memorable ones.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200010230nyj.htm
DolFan - the "whole cheating thing" was nothing of the kind; I get tired of people citing this because there was no cheating.
The 2003 Patriots were a super team in a season with a strong number of such teams - the Colts and Titans both won 12 games, the Ravens erased a 5-5 start to finish 10-6, the Broncos finished 10-6, and the Kansas City Chiefs had the best offense in the league en route to 13-3. Even the Dolphins, despite not making the playoffs, finished 10-6.
The Colts are doing more than cutting it close - they're walking the high-wire, and we saw what happened when the Saints finally fell off the high wire.