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ShareThisGrading Ten Years of NFL Drafts: From 1996-2005
Which NFL teams have done the best job drafting in recent history? It's way too early to grade any of the last three drafts, but we can start looking at drafts from 2005 and go back about ten years. That should give us a good look at which teams have "overperformed" and which teams have "underperformed" relative to their draft positions in recent years. We can also see which picks were the biggest "steals" and which were the biggest "busts" over that time.
Let's get one thing out of the way. Any list that doesn't have Tom Brady as the biggest steal and Ryan Leaf as the biggest bust is just wrong. We all know that. Fortunately, my system -- which combines Doug's Approximate Value System for grading NFL players and my NFL draft value system which assigns appropriate value to each draft pick -- does just that.
Before I get to the nuts and bolts of how I graded a player, let's skip to what everyone wants to see first -- the best 35 draft picks from 1996-2005. The middle column shows what pick the player was selected with, and the third column shows that player's value (explained in a bit).
Tom Brady 199 2.21 Zach Thomas 154 2.07 Jason Taylor 73 2.06 Terrell Owens 89 1.89 Ronde Barber 66 1.84 Ray Lewis 26 1.81 Tiki Barber 36 1.67 Randy Moss 21 1.65 La'Roi Glover 166 1.62 Marvin Harrison 19 1.60 Lofa Tatupu 45 1.50 Matt Hasselbeck 187 1.48 Sam Madison 44 1.45 Lance Briggs 68 1.41 LaDainian Tomlinson 5 1.41 Brian Westbrook 91 1.40 Ahman Green 76 1.39 Hines Ward 92 1.37 Joey Porter 73 1.36 Trent Cole 146 1.35 Clinton Portis 51 1.35 Peyton Manning 1 1.33 Edgerrin James 4 1.33 Adalius Thomas 186 1.33 Aaron Brooks 131 1.32 Shane Olivea 209 1.30 Frank Gore 65 1.29 Jared Allen 126 1.28 Derrick Mason 98 1.28 Donald Driver 213 1.26 Chad Johnson 36 1.24 Brian Urlacher 9 1.23 Donnie Edwards 98 1.22 Darren Sharper 60 1.22 Jeremiah Trotter 72 1.21
And perhaps more itneresting, the worst 35 picks, from 35th worst to worst.
Tom Knight 9 -0.74 Willie Middlebrooks 24 -0.74 Bryant Westbrook 5 -0.74 Troy Williamson 7 -0.75 Nathan Davis 32 -0.75 Dimitrius Underwood 29 -0.75 Leon Bender 31 -0.75 Andre T. Johnson 30 -0.75 Michael Haynes 14 -0.75 David Pollack 17 -0.75 Aaron Rodgers 24 -0.77 Jason Peter 14 -0.77 Jim Druckenmiller 26 -0.79 Ryan Sims 6 -0.80 Mike D. Williams 4 -0.80 Mike Williams 10 -0.81 Reggie McGrew 24 -0.81 Jerome McDougle 15 -0.87 Cade McNown 12 -0.88 David Terrell 8 -0.89 Michael Booker 11 -0.89 Cedric Jones 5 -0.89 Johnathan Sullivan 6 -0.92 Wendell Bryant 12 -0.92 Yatil Green 15 -0.94 Lawrence Phillips 6 -1.03 Jamal Reynolds 10 -1.06 Tim Couch 1 -1.08 Curtis Enis 5 -1.09 Courtney Brown 1 -1.10 Andre Wadsworth 3 -1.19 Alex Smith 1 -1.33 Charles Rogers 2 -1.46 Akili Smith 3 -1.47 Ryan Leaf 2 -1.54
I think those tables should match up pretty well with most people's pre-conceived notions of which players were big time steals and busts. Let's get to the formula.
I examined the ten drafts from 1996 to 2005, with only punters and kickers excluded. Initially, I compared the approximate value of each player selected at any spot in the draft, relative to the draft value of that pick. If the players a team has drafted have accumulated more value than the pick is worth, he's a good pick and that team did well. So even Peyton Manning -- approximate value of 133 -- is a "value" pick, since the expected value of the number one pick is only 73 points. Similarly, Donnie Edwards -- approximate career value of 76 -- is a value pick of +60, because the 98th pick in the draft has an expected value of only 16 points.
Problems occur when you look at recent draft picks, though. There's no way that Larry Fitzgerald - expected career value of 59 based on being the third pick in the draft - can reach that level after just four seasons. So even though he's played well, his approximate value to date is just 34 points. To remedy that, I complicated the formula a little bit. Instead of subtracting expected value (based on draft position) from career value (based on NFL production), I subtracted the expected value of a player's draft pick divided by the sum of the expected values of all players in that draft class, from the career value of that player by the sum of the career value of all the players in that draft class. This way, people like Julius Peppers and Larry Fitzgerald aren't penalized for failing to achieve lofty career goals in just a few seasons.
So here's how to interpret Tom Brady's score of 2.21. The expected career value of the 199th pick in the draft is 7, and of all the picks in the 2000 draft, the 199th pick is only expected to get 0.167% of the group's career value. Brady, in fact, has to date a career value of 91, which is 2.373% of the career value of all the players in the draft. The difference, 2.21%, is Brady's grade -- i.e., the value he produced above and beyond his expected draft position, relative to the other players in his draft class. Ryan Leaf is the worst, at -1.54. Being the 2nd pick, we would expect him to have accumulated about 1.614% of all the career value in the '98 draft; being Ryan Leaf, he only produced 0.071% of the value in that draft; therefore he's graded at -1.54 relative to his draft peers.
So which teams have done the best? Not surprisingly, it's the Colts. Indianapolis has been a great team for the past decade, and it's almost all because of homegrown players. The worst drafting team probably isn't much of a surprise, either.
AV DV Diff Indianapolis Colts 40.74 31.12 9.62 Green Bay Packers 34.89 28.87 6.02 Baltimore Ravens 35.99 30.54 5.45 Pittsburgh Steelers 36.61 31.19 5.42 Philadelphia Eagles 38.42 33.26 5.16 Dallas Cowboys 34.79 31.07 3.72 Tennessee Titans 37.90 34.83 3.07 Buffalo Bills 32.25 29.38 2.88 New York Giants 31.40 28.78 2.62 Jacksonville Jaguars 37.47 35.15 2.33 Chicago Bears 37.36 35.30 2.05 New England Patriots 35.75 34.55 1.20 Kansas City Chiefs 27.47 27.08 0.39 St. Louis Rams 36.19 35.80 0.39 Seattle Seahawks 34.62 34.59 0.03 New York Jets 32.24 32.25 -0.01 Denver Broncos 30.47 30.71 -0.24 Miami Dolphins 30.06 30.36 -0.30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29.18 29.63 -0.46 Atlanta Falcons 28.30 29.10 -0.80 Carolina Panthers 29.91 31.60 -1.69 Cincinnati Bengals 34.15 36.19 -2.05 San Francisco 49ers 28.70 30.84 -2.14 Washington Redskins 23.95 26.58 -2.63 San Diego Chargers 28.54 31.46 -2.93 Minnesota Vikings 29.50 32.65 -3.15 Houston Texans 12.37 15.58 -3.21 Oakland Raiders 26.76 31.17 -4.42 Arizona Cardinals 34.13 38.78 -4.65 New Orleans Saints 25.01 30.81 -5.80 Cleveland Browns 21.24 28.12 -6.87 Detroit Lions 23.66 32.66 -9.01
Which teams have been the best and worst drafters in the first round?
AV DV Diff Indianapolis Colts 16.42 9.26 7.16 Baltimore Ravens 17.01 12.67 4.34 Pittsburgh Steelers 12.20 9.07 3.12 Minnesota Vikings 13.27 11.57 1.71 Jacksonville Jaguars 12.81 11.41 1.40 Kansas City Chiefs 8.70 7.51 1.19 Denver Broncos 8.97 7.81 1.15 Dallas Cowboys 8.50 7.38 1.12 New York Jets 12.12 11.05 1.06 Buffalo Bills 9.17 8.32 0.84 Tennessee Titans 8.30 7.62 0.68 St. Louis Rams 14.22 13.56 0.66 New Orleans Saints 11.19 10.62 0.57 New England Patriots 11.41 11.01 0.40 Seattle Seahawks 13.04 12.85 0.19 Atlanta Falcons 8.43 8.41 0.02 Philadelphia Eagles 9.77 9.91 -0.14 San Diego Chargers 8.45 8.69 -0.24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.31 8.21 -0.90 Washington Redskins 10.11 11.05 -0.94 New York Giants 8.07 9.43 -1.36 Houston Texans 4.63 6.16 -1.52 Green Bay Packers 6.94 8.70 -1.76 Miami Dolphins 3.49 5.97 -2.48 Carolina Panthers 6.92 9.45 -2.53 Chicago Bears 8.11 10.73 -2.62 Oakland Raiders 9.38 12.42 -3.04 Cincinnati Bengals 9.93 13.03 -3.10 Cleveland Browns 6.11 9.75 -3.64 San Francisco 49ers 5.48 9.63 -4.15 Arizona Cardinals 10.41 14.56 -4.15 Detroit Lions 9.04 13.92 -4.88
Here are the best and worst drafting teams in rounds four through seven:
AV DV Diff Green Bay Packers 18.06 10.63 7.43 Tennessee Titans 16.79 13.51 3.28 Baltimore Ravens 12.46 10.23 2.24 Indianapolis Colts 12.78 10.56 2.21 Chicago Bears 14.97 12.83 2.14 Dallas Cowboys 12.52 10.69 1.83 Kansas City Chiefs 12.56 10.72 1.83 Atlanta Falcons 13.58 11.89 1.69 New York Giants 10.92 9.29 1.63 Pittsburgh Steelers 11.90 10.39 1.51 Philadelphia Eagles 12.63 11.70 0.92 San Francisco 49ers 9.98 9.62 0.35 Oakland Raiders 8.75 8.44 0.31 Jacksonville Jaguars 11.40 11.49 -0.10 New York Jets 10.94 11.31 -0.37 Houston Texans 4.26 4.64 -0.38 Cincinnati Bengals 9.66 10.11 -0.45 Buffalo Bills 9.68 10.13 -0.45 Denver Broncos 9.38 9.95 -0.56 St. Louis Rams 10.36 11.08 -0.71 New England Patriots 11.10 12.08 -0.98 Miami Dolphins 10.46 11.69 -1.23 Minnesota Vikings 8.72 10.18 -1.46 Arizona Cardinals 9.56 11.14 -1.58 Carolina Panthers 8.14 9.98 -1.84 Cleveland Browns 6.68 9.12 -2.44 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.78 11.24 -2.46 Washington Redskins 5.96 8.54 -2.58 Seattle Seahawks 8.37 10.96 -2.59 Detroit Lions 5.62 8.36 -2.73 San Diego Chargers 7.84 10.89 -3.05 New Orleans Saints 6.62 10.28 -3.66
Here's a look at the best three draft picks by each team:
team year ovr atl 1998 199 1.12 Ephraim Salaam atl 2005 160 0.89 Michael Boley atl 1999 237 0.87 Todd McClure buf 2003 111 1.07 Terrence McGee buf 2001 46 0.81 Aaron Schobel buf 1996 24 0.75 Eric Moulds car 2001 74 0.96 Steve Smith car 1996 43 0.92 Muhsin Muhammad car 1997 56 0.79 Mike Minter chi 2003 68 1.41 Lance Briggs chi 2000 9 1.23 Brian Urlacher chi 2002 104 0.95 Alex Brown cin 2001 36 1.24 Chad Johnson cin 1997 43 1.12 Corey Dillon cin 2001 204 1.02 T.J. Houshmandzadeh cle 2002 141 0.74 Andra Davis cle 2001 97 0.39 Anthony Henry cle 2003 84 0.37 Chris Crocker clt 1996 19 1.60 Marvin Harrison clt 1998 1 1.33 Peyton Manning clt 1999 4 1.33 Edgerrin James crd 1997 42 1.17 Jake Plummer crd 2003 54 0.79 Anquan Boldin crd 2004 64 0.76 Darnell Dockett dal 1997 65 1.06 Dexter Coakley dal 2003 69 1.03 Jason Witten dal 2005 109 1.02 Marion Barber den 2002 51 1.35 Clinton Portis den 1999 31 1.01 Al Wilson den 1997 28 0.92 Trevor Pryce det 1998 207 0.76 Chris Liwienski det 2001 61 0.63 Shaun Rogers det 2000 253 0.45 Alfonso Boone gnb 1998 187 1.48 Matt Hasselbeck gnb 1999 131 1.32 Aaron Brooks gnb 1999 213 1.26 Donald Driver htx 2003 101 0.71 Domanick Williams htx 2005 188 0.71 C.C. Brown htx 2002 50 0.48 Chester Pitts jax 2005 52 0.95 Khalif Barnes jax 1998 9 0.91 Fred Taylor jax 2001 233 0.89 Marlon McCree kan 2004 126 1.28 Jared Allen kan 1996 98 1.22 Donnie Edwards kan 1997 13 1.17 Tony Gonzalez mia 1996 154 2.07 Zach Thomas mia 1997 73 2.06 Jason Taylor mia 1997 44 1.45 Sam Madison min 1998 21 1.65 Randy Moss min 1999 11 1.07 Daunte Culpepper min 1998 173 1.05 Matt Birk nor 2000 168 1.11 Marc Bulger nor 2005 13 0.65 Jammal Brown nor 2001 23 0.51 Deuce McAllister nwe 2000 199 2.21 Tom Brady nwe 2003 164 1.02 Dan Koppen nwe 2001 48 0.98 Matt Light nyg 1997 36 1.67 Tiki Barber nyg 2003 160 0.78 David Diehl nyg 2000 177 0.77 Dhani Jones nyj 2000 78 1.08 Laveranues Coles nyj 2005 123 0.99 Kerry Rhodes nyj 1997 229 0.96 Jason Ferguson oti 1997 98 1.28 Derrick Mason oti 1996 109 1.07 Jon Runyan oti 1998 46 0.83 Samari Rolle phi 2002 91 1.40 Brian Westbrook phi 2005 146 1.35 Trent Cole phi 1998 72 1.21 Jeremiah Trotter pit 1998 92 1.37 Hines Ward pit 1999 73 1.36 Joey Porter pit 1999 109 1.21 Aaron Smith rai 1996 166 1.62 La'Roi Glover rai 1997 193 0.98 Grady Jackson rai 2005 78 0.84 Kirk Morrison ram 1999 6 1.07 Torry Holt ram 1996 141 1.03 Fred Miller ram 2004 24 0.80 Steven Jackson rav 1996 26 1.81 Ray Lewis rav 2000 186 1.33 Adalius Thomas rav 2002 24 1.08 Ed Reed sdg 2001 5 1.41 LaDainian Tomlinson sdg 2004 209 1.30 Shane Olivea sdg 2001 32 1.05 Drew Brees sea 2005 45 1.50 Lofa Tatupu sea 1998 76 1.39 Ahman Green sea 2000 80 1.03 Darrell Jackson sfo 1996 89 1.89 Terrell Owens sfo 2005 65 1.29 Frank Gore sfo 2002 249 0.76 Kyle Kosier tam 1997 66 1.84 Ronde Barber tam 1997 12 1.05 Warrick Dunn tam 1997 169 0.91 Al Harris was 1999 7 1.06 Champ Bailey was 1997 80 0.99 Derek Smith was 1996 102 0.86 Stephen Davis
And finally, the worst three draft picks of each team:
team year ovr atl 1997 11 -0.89 Michael Booker atl 1997 32 -0.75 Nathan Davis atl 1997 41 -0.46 Byron Hanspard buf 2002 4 -0.80 Mike D. Williams buf 2000 26 -0.66 Erik Flowers buf 2000 89 -0.37 Corey Moore car 1998 14 -0.77 Jason Peter car 2000 23 -0.69 Rashard Anderson car 1996 8 -0.65 Tim Biakabutuka chi 1998 5 -1.09 Curtis Enis chi 2001 8 -0.89 David Terrell chi 1999 12 -0.88 Cade McNown cin 1999 3 -1.47 Akili Smith cin 2005 17 -0.75 David Pollack cin 1999 33 -0.73 Charles Fisher cle 2000 1 -1.10 Courtney Brown cle 1999 1 -1.08 Tim Couch cle 2002 16 -0.51 William Green clt 1999 63 -0.53 Brandon Burlsworth clt 1996 51 -0.48 Dedric Mathis clt 2005 92 -0.41 Vincent Burns crd 1998 3 -1.19 Andre Wadsworth crd 2002 12 -0.92 Wendell Bryant crd 1997 9 -0.74 Tom Knight dal 2004 52 -0.59 Jacob Rogers dal 2000 49 -0.58 Dwayne Goodrich dal 1997 22 -0.57 David LaFleur den 2001 24 -0.74 Willie Middlebrooks den 1998 30 -0.74 Marcus Nash den 2001 51 -0.60 Paul Toviessi det 2003 2 -1.46 Charles Rogers det 2005 10 -0.81 Mike Williams det 1997 5 -0.74 Bryant Westbrook gnb 2001 10 -1.06 Jamal Reynolds gnb 2005 24 -0.77 Aaron Rodgers gnb 1996 27 -0.60 John Michels htx 2003 41 -0.62 Bennie Joppru htx 2002 1 -0.49 David Carr htx 2005 16 -0.42 Travis Johnson jax 2000 29 -0.72 R. Jay Soward jax 1998 57 -0.54 Cordell Taylor jax 1996 60 -0.47 Michael Cheever kan 2002 6 -0.80 Ryan Sims kan 2000 21 -0.72 Sylvester Morris kan 2004 36 -0.62 Junior Siavii mia 1997 15 -0.94 Yatil Green mia 1998 29 -0.68 John Avery mia 2001 26 -0.58 Jamar Fletcher min 1999 29 -0.75 Dimitrius Underwood min 2005 7 -0.75 Troy Williamson min 1996 45 -0.63 James Manley nor 2003 6 -0.92 Johnathan Sullivan nor 1997 33 -0.56 Rob Kelly nor 1996 11 -0.52 Alex Molden nwe 1998 18 -0.62 Robert Edwards nwe 1997 29 -0.60 Chris Canty nwe 1999 28 -0.56 Andy Katzenmoyer nyg 1996 5 -0.89 Cedric Jones nyg 1999 49 -0.56 Joe Montgomery nyg 1998 70 -0.49 Brian Alford nyj 1996 31 -0.70 Alex Van Dyke nyj 1997 31 -0.64 Rick Terry nyj 1998 56 -0.48 Dorian Boose oti 1996 38 -0.66 Bryant Mix oti 1997 46 -0.59 Joey Kent oti 2003 28 -0.58 Andre Woolfolk phi 2003 15 -0.87 Jerome McDougle phi 1997 25 -0.69 Jon Harris phi 2001 25 -0.47 Freddie Mitchell pit 1996 29 -0.64 Jamain Stephens pit 2004 38 -0.60 Ricardo Colclough pit 1998 41 -0.59 Jeremy Staat rai 1998 31 -0.75 Leon Bender rai 2004 2 -0.73 Robert Gallery rai 1999 18 -0.56 Matt Stinchcomb ram 1996 6 -1.03 Lawrence Phillips ram 2003 12 -0.57 Jimmy Kennedy ram 2001 12 -0.55 Damione Lewis rav 2005 53 -0.58 Dan Cody rav 1997 64 -0.46 Jay Graham rav 1998 42 -0.39 Patrick Johnson sdg 1998 2 -1.54 Ryan Leaf sdg 1996 41 -0.49 Bryan Still sdg 1999 60 -0.42 Jermaine Fazande sea 2000 22 -0.68 Chris McIntosh sea 2003 73 -0.47 Wayne Hunter sea 2000 52 -0.47 Ike Charlton sfo 2005 1 -1.33 Alex Smith sfo 1999 24 -0.81 Reggie McGrew sfo 1997 26 -0.79 Jim Druckenmiller tam 1997 16 -0.48 Reidel Anthony tam 2002 86 -0.43 Marquis Walker tam 2005 5 -0.42 Cadillac Williams was 1996 30 -0.75 Andre T. Johnson was 2003 44 -0.56 Taylor Jacobs was 2000 64 -0.50 Lloyd Harrison
Notes: This study does not look at draft pick trades. If a team traded the 1st pick in the draft for the 50th pick, and the 50th pick ended up being pretty good, said team would be given credit in my study for drafting a good player with the 50th pick, and docked zero points for not valuing the first pick properly. Further, trading your 4th round pick for a HOF WR earns you zero points, too. I'm looking ONLY at the specific, narrow task of player selection. Further, some of the elite teams simply don't have the roster space for many picks. To the extent that the Colts or Patriots get penalized for drafting a better player with the 200th pick than the Cardinals do with the 199th pick, but the Cardinals get more points from that player since he started for Arizona and the 200th pick did not start for New England or Indianapolis, then the top teams are unfairly penalized. Further, players like Joe Horn will be good picks for the teams that drafted them, even though they weren't good in the way we normally think.
This entry was posted on Monday, May 26th, 2008 at 6:55 am and is filed under Approximate Value, General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
The Colts are good at the draft even more than the Lions are bad at it. I was sure they were the best, but I thought the Lions hilarious awfulness would give them a run for the furtherest from average title.
Of the 3 worst Colts draft picks, it should be noted that Brandon Burlsworth died 11 days after being drafted...
I think the class of 2005 (and maybe even 2004) is not yet mature enough to be included in this study. Case in point: the Packers' second-biggest bust is Aaron Rodgers, who hasn't started an NFL game yet.
Meanwhile, two QBs drafted by Green Bay make the best-value list, even though neither of them started a game for the Packers. I think that shows up the limits of this otherwise interesting study.
I'm trying to use your data to go further, by analyzing a pair of Packer-Seahawk trades, with the goal of valuing more accurately the teams' personnel movements, rather than simply giving all a player's value to the team that drafted him.
The Ahman Green / Fred Vinson trade is easy. Already, Green's expected draft value as a third-rounder (19) was six points lower than second-round Vinson's (25). So if the two performed equally, the Packers would have had a plus-six margin. Instead, Green outperformed his expected value by 71 points, while Vinson underperformed his by 24. Net gain to Green Bay: 95 points. The most lopsided trade in history?
The Hasselbeck trade is more complicated, because Seattle gave up a third-round pick and swapped its first-rounder with Green Bay in order to trade for the sixth-round back-up. If Hasselbeck had been an average sixth-rounder, and both Packer selections (Jamal Reynolds and Torrance Marshall) had been average for where they were picked, Green Bay would have had a net advantage of 18 points. So Hasselbeck needed to be 18 points better than the others combined to make up the difference - and he turned out to be 72 points better. Net gain to Seattle: 54 points.
Even this muddles the issue, since Hasselbeck couldn't have started for Green Bay; his value would have been minimal at least until 2008. So the Packers could be said to have wasted a 6th-rounder (7 draft value points) and lost the difference between Marshall/Reynolds and average (25 points). Net loss: 32 points.
Seattle, meanwhile, got 87 value points from Hasselbeck for the price of seven places in round one and a third-round pick (total 25 points). Net gain: 62.
Net gain for the Seahawks against the Packers: 94 points. Egalité! (NB This assumes that Holmgren would have drafted Reynolds and Marshall had he not made the trade for Matt.)
Wow. I find it incredibly hard to believe that a whopping 14 teams have drafted worse than my Fins in that time span. Obviously Zach, JT, Madison and Surtain really boosted them because other than those four the Fins have little to show for those ten drafts. I mean sure, some of the drafted players were on the team for a few years--by default--but none of them did much of anything.
I'd like to see how the Fins rank in 5 years when the Zach, JT, Madison and Surtain drafts are off the board. Already I think four, maybe five guys from last year's draft class have been released.
Hmm... If you expect your player to get 2% of the points and he gets 1%, is that the same level of bust as if you expect 1% and you get zero? I'm not sure I know how to quantify that. Or if a player doesn't play at all, or hardly plays (Nathan Davis), then you've got somebody else out there performing at least at SOME level. If you've got him in the game and he's doing lousy (Alex Smith), is that worse? I guess it depends on your feelings about Trent Dilfer
It makes me wonder what would have happened if the 49ers didn't take Smith -- Not if they took somebody else, but if they didn't take anybody at all with their #1 pick. Dilfer would probably have done just as well (or poorly) as Smith... How would that have affected their picks in later years? Perhaps Leinart would be a 49er. Or perhaps they'd have snatched up one of the free agents. Would they actually be a better team if they had drafted NOBODY with that first pick in 2005? We know the upside of a #1 pick (Manning, etc) but it makes me wonder about the downside of those #1 picks. The team is making such a large investment in an unknown, how far into the future does the downside stretch?
The other thing I was wondering (which is really unrelated to this post) is whether the first rounders success is affected by the fact that they're "first round" guys. I have no clue what goes on in training camp but I assume those guys are given a lot more coaching and attention than some random fifth rounder. I assume the later draft picks are mostly just thrown into camp to sink or swim. It's an impossible question, just something I was pondering -- How many of those late pick busts could have made an impact if they had a little more attention thrown their way?
Interesting. I'm wondering about the value of linemen. I have absolutely no facts and figures to go on, but I was surprised that Robert Gallery was not near the bottom of the list (he just missed the "worst 35" apparently). I know valuing linemen is much harder than the skill positions... but, especially in the case of the Raiders where their poor performance of the last 5 seasons can be put squarely on the O-line's shoulders, a poor choice in Gallery has certainly added to (or should I say subtracted from) Cade McNown's (and others) scores.
Hey Rick,
I'm not really following your Gallery/McNown comment. Can you unpack that a bit for me?
As for Gallery's "value", he's started an average of 14 games a season, which is better than nothing. But he's been on below average, bad, historically bad, and bad offenses in his career. He ranks as roughly the 39th best player from the 2004 class, sitting next to guys like Reggie Williams and DeAngelo Williams. I'd suspect that as we move farther away from the '04 draft, Gallery's value will drop as the "late bloomers" will pass him. Gallery's got a nice leg up, even if he's accomplished nothing individually (pro bowls, etc.) and his team has accomplished almost nothing, by virtue of his 57 starts. And remember, this system is supposed to measure value, not talent.
This is a very interesting study. I'd be curious to see where a player like Jonathan Ogden is ranked among the Ravens best draft picks. He was taken high (4th overall), but became a lock for the hall of fame. Many would say that he (in his prime) was as dominant player at his position as Manning is at his...but how does that balance out with the assigned values (QB vs. LT)? Anyway, a great read. Thanks.
aaron rodgers is one of the worst packer picks of all time according to this....flaw in the system even if he didnt paly
This Analysis is a good start but is obviously incomplete.
It ignores trades and doesn't take account of limited roster space, Both omissions are understandable, trades are outside the scope of this study, and I haven't the faintest notion how to quantify the effect of competition for roster spots on the value of a pick.
What I can't understand is the omission of 2nd and 3rd round picks from the breakdown. Did all 2nd and 3rd round picks have values close to expected?
Lastly I agree that players who received zero playtime should have been omitted from the study just as kickers were.
Nonstarters skew the data, especially QBs who only start if they get drafted by a bad team, and lets face it, bad teams are some of the worst drafters.