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2007 QB numbers: Adjusted for Strength of Schedule

Posted by Chase Stuart on June 5, 2008

Over here, you can find a link to the 2007 statistical leaders. For example, the table below shows how many adjusted yards per pass attempt each QB (minimum 214 pass attempts) had last season. For those that don't remember, adjusted yards per pass is calculated by taking a QB's total passing yards, adjusting them by adding 10 points for every touchdown pass and subtracting 45 points for every interception, and dividing those adjusted yards by pass attempts.

Quarterback             Att     PYds    TD      INT     AY/A
Tom Brady		578	4806	50	 8	8.56
David Garrard		325	2509	18	 3	7.86
Ben Roethlisberger	404	3154	32	11	7.37
Jeff Garcia		327	2440	13	 4	7.31
Peyton Manning		515	4040	31	14	7.22
Tony Romo		520	4211	36	19	7.15
Brett Favre		535	4155	28	15	7.03
Donovan McNabb		473	3324	19	 7	6.76
Matt Schaub		289	2241	 9	 9	6.66
Matt Hasselbeck		562	3966	28	12	6.59
Jay Cutler		467	3497	20	14	6.57
Kurt Warner		451	3417	27	17	6.48
Derek Anderson		527	3787	29	19	6.11
Carson Palmer		575	4131	26	20	6.07
Drew Brees		652	4423	28	18	5.97
Jon Kitna		561	4068	18	20	5.97
Philip Rivers		460	3152	21	15	5.84
Chad Pennington		260	1765	10	 9	5.62
Jason Campbell		417	2700	12	11	5.58
Joey Harrington		348	2215	 7	 8	5.53
Sage Rosenfels		240	1684	15	12	5.39
Damon Huard		332	2257	11	13	5.37
Brian Griese		262	1803	10	12	5.20
Cleo Lemon		309	1773	 6	 6	5.06
Rex Grossman		225	1411	 4	 7	5.05
Eli Manning		529	3336	23	20	5.04
Kyle Boller		275	1743	 9	10	5.03
Trent Edwards		269	1630	 7	 8	4.98
Tarvaris Jackson	294	1911	 9	12	4.97
Vince Young		382	2546	 9	17	4.90
Marc Bulger		378	2392	11	15	4.83
Brodie Croyle		224	1227	 6	 6	4.54
Kellen Clemens		250	1529	 5	10	4.52
Trent Dilfer		219	1166	 7	12	3.18

You might recall that last year, I wrote a post on Rearview Adjusted Yards per Attempt, where I adjusted the yards per attempt numbers for strength of schedule. Well I'm going to do that again this year. The math is pretty complicated, but can be found in the link to last year's post. But I adjust each QB and each defense for strength of schedule, to get a true rating for each QB and defense. Let's start with the defenses, first.

Team	                 Rat     Raw     SOS
San Diego Chargers	 1.92	 1.28	 0.64
Indianapolis Colts	 1.84	 1.64	 0.20
Tennessee Titans	 1.47	 1.19	 0.28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	 0.76	 1.06	-0.30
Buffalo Bills		 0.62	-0.05	 0.67
Dallas Cowboys		 0.61	 0.59	 0.02
Jacksonville Jaguars	 0.60	 0.40	 0.20
Pittsburgh Steelers	 0.50	 0.63	-0.13
Washington Redskins	 0.49	 0.54	-0.05
New England Patriots	 0.37	 0.59	-0.21
Kansas City Chiefs	 0.37	-0.20	 0.56
Oakland Raiders		 0.26	-0.08	 0.34
Green Bay Packers	 0.17	 0.30	-0.14
Carolina Panthers	 0.06	-0.10	 0.16
Minnesota Vikings	 0.02	-0.23	 0.24
New York Giants		-0.03	-0.34	 0.32
Philadelphia Eagles	-0.04	-0.36	 0.32
Chicago Bears		-0.14	-0.44	 0.30
New York Jets		-0.20	-0.25	 0.05
Cleveland Browns	-0.21	-0.03	-0.18
Cincinnati Bengals	-0.28	-0.15	-0.14
Houston Texans		-0.37	-0.78	 0.41
Seattle Seahawks	-0.40	 0.46	-0.86
St. Louis Rams		-0.45	-0.40	-0.06
Denver Broncos		-0.62	-0.54	-0.09
Atlanta Falcons		-0.64	-0.38	-0.26
Miami Dolphins		-0.71	-1.09	 0.37
Arizona Cardinals	-0.84	-0.13	-0.71
Detroit Lions		-0.99	-0.68	-0.31
San Francisco 49ers	-1.15	-0.64	-0.51
Baltimore Ravens	-1.23	-0.77	-0.46
New Orleans Saints	-1.98	-1.48	-0.49

Let's use the Saints as an example. The middle column shows the Saints actual performance against quarterbacks last year -- New Orleans allowed 1.48 more adjusted yards per pass than the average team. The last column shows strength of schedule, where a negative number indicates an easy schedule. The Saints had a pretty easy schedule last year: they faced Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith, David Carr, Marc Bulger, Kyle Orton, Matt Moore, Vince Young, Chris Redman, Joey Harrington and Luke McNown, all players that were below average in 2007. So when you adjust New Orleans' actual AY/A allowed number (1.48 below average) for their strength of schedule (0.49 AY/A below average), we can give a value of -1.98 for the Saints, meaning that's what we'd have expected New Orleans to allow if they faced an average slate of quarterbacks.

As you can imagine, that's really awful. The Saints pass defense last year looks historically bad without recognizing a below average schedule. Basically, the '07 Saints pass D was about as bad as it gets.

The Seahawks had the easiest SOS by far last year, facing a ton of awful QBs and only a couple of good ones. Gus Frerotte, Trent Dilfer, Alex Smith, A.J. Feeley, Matt Leinart, Marc Bulger, Matt Moore, Rex Grossman, Chris Redman and Luke McNown had the lion's share of pass attempts them last year. Compare that to a team like the Bills, who faced Brady twice, Garrard, Cutler, Roethlisberger, Romo and McNabb. Buffalo's pass defense ranks 13th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed using the raw data, and 5th in AY/A allowed once accounting for strength of schedule. With the additions of Leodis McKelvin in the draft, the return of Ko Simpson and Paul Posluszny from injury, the signing of Kawika Mitchell and the trade for Marcus Stroud, Buffalo's defense could be excellent in 2008.

The Chargers, Chiefs, Texans and Dolphins also faced rough schedules in '07; the Cardinals, 49ers and Ravens also faced really easy ones. Keep that in mind when checking out their raw 2007 stats.

Back to the quarterbacks. Now that we have a ranking for each defense, we can adjust each pass attempt by every QB for the strength of schedule they faced. Here's the list:

                         Rate    Raw     SOS
Tom Brady		 2.90	 2.71	 0.19
David Garrard		 2.57	 2.01	 0.56
Peyton Manning		 1.67	 1.38	 0.30
Jay Cutler		 1.31	 0.72	 0.59
Jeff Garcia		 1.29	 1.46	-0.17
Tony Romo		 1.26	 1.30	-0.04
Ben Roethlisberger	 1.26	 1.52	-0.26
Brett Favre		 1.26 	 1.18	 0.08
Donovan McNabb		 0.93	 0.92	 0.01
Matt Schaub		 0.89	 0.82	 0.08
Sage Rosenfels		 0.57	-0.46	 1.03
Matt Hasselbeck		 0.21	 0.75	-0.54
Jon Kitna		 0.19	 0.02	 0.18
Drew Brees		 0.18	 0.10	 0.08
Philip Rivers		 0.17	-0.01	 0.18
Kurt Warner		 0.12	 0.60	-0.48
Chad Pennington		 0.08	-0.23	 0.31
Carson Palmer		 0.07	 0.22	-0.15
Derek Anderson		-0.01	 0.27	-0.27
Jason Campbell		-0.17	-0.27	 0.10
Joey Harrington		-0.20	-0.32	 0.12
Damon Huard		-0.23	-0.48	 0.25
Kyle Boller		-0.49	-0.82	 0.33
Rex Grossman		-0.59	-0.80	 0.21
Vince Young		-0.77	-0.95	 0.18
Cleo Lemon		-0.79	-0.79	 0.00
Eli Manning		-0.82	-0.80	-0.02
Brian Griese		-0.88	-0.65	-0.24
Trent Edwards		-0.93	-0.87	-0.06
Brodie Croyle		-1.00	-1.31	 0.31
Tarvaris Jackson	-1.11	-0.88	-0.23
Kellen Clemens		-1.32	-1.33	 0.01
Marc Bulger		-1.37	-1.02	-0.36
Trent Dilfer		-3.07	-2.67	-0.40

The first thing that jumps off the page to me there is Derek Anderson. We all know he threw a ton of TDs and made the Pro Bowl, but in perhaps the most telling stat -- adjusted yards per pass attempt, adjusted for strength of schedule -- he was below average. Only five of his opponents had above average defenses -- Buffalo, Pittsburgh (twice), New England and Oakland.

Who had the hardest schedules? Sage Rosenfels had a brutal schedule, but that doesn't have much implication for 2008. Jay Cutler faced a really difficult schedule, too. He had only three games against a below average pass defense -- Chicago, Houston and a four pass game against Detroit. To rank top five in his second year is very impressive, and bodes well for the future. Obviously Garrard looks even better, and he had a really hard schedule, too. Both of those guys could cause nightmares for AFC defenses for the next few years. Garrard won't throw for six times as many TDs as INTs this year, but he's got an awfully high perch from which to fall. He was incredibly valuable last year.

On the flip side, Hasselbeck and Warner had the easiest schedules last year, which drops their numbers from very impressive to just slightly above average.

Finally, here's a list of some QBs with under 214 attempts:

                         Rate    Raw     SOS     Att
Todd Collins		 3.24	 3.09	 0.15	 105
Brooks Bollinger	 1.66	 1.27	 0.38	  50
Jake Delhomme		 1.28	 1.73	-0.45	  86
Daunte Culpepper	 1.09	 0.41	 0.68	 186
Kerry Collins		 0.89	 0.63	 0.26  	  82
Troy Smith		 0.39	 0.36	 0.02	  76
Quinn Gray		 0.22	 0.13	 0.09	 144
Kelly Holcomb		 0.20	 0.01	 0.19	  83
Shaun Hill		 0.05	-0.09	 0.13	  79
Luke McCown		-0.09	 0.80	-0.89	 139
J.P. Losman		-0.25	-0.28	 0.04	 175
Chris Redman		-0.28	 0.56	-0.83	 149
Trent Green		-0.43	-0.73	 0.30	 141
Matt Moore		-0.98	-1.03	 0.05	 111
Kyle Orton		-1.23	-0.60	-0.64	  80
JaMarcus Russell	-1.44	-2.62	 1.19	  66
Steve McNair		-1.63	-1.20	-0.44	 205
Vinny Testaverde	-1.68	-1.59	-0.09	 172
John Beck		-1.81	-1.79	-0.02	 107
Josh McCown		-2.04	-1.89	-0.15	 190
Patrick Ramsey		-2.05	-1.12	-0.93	  48
Matt Leinart		-2.13	-1.50	-0.63	 112
David Carr		-2.34	-2.61	 0.27	 136
A.J. Feeley		-2.39	-2.25	-0.14	 103
Alex Smith		-2.65	-1.94	-0.71	 193
Gus Frerotte		-3.27	-2.59	-0.68	 167
Byron Leftwich		-3.45	-3.24	-0.21	  58

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 5th, 2008 at 6:05 am and is filed under Statgeekery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.