AV All-Franchise Teams: NFC West
Posted by Doug on Thursday, June 19, 2008
Just for fun, I decided to use my Approximate Value method to come up with a post-merger all-franchise team for each franchise. I'll post them by division.
Here are the rules:
1. The AV systems gives a player a score for each player season. To combine these into a career number, I take 100% of the player's best season, plus 95% of his second-best season, plus 90% of his third-best season, and so on.
2. I'm only comfortable (for now) applying the AV methodology to post-merger seasons. Players who debuted before the merger, however, are included if their post-merger seasons alone merit inclusion. In this case, they have a '+' after their AV score to remind you that their career AV is (probably) higher than the number shown.
3. To avoid 4-3/3-4 issues, I gave each defense 12 players, including two DT/NTs, two DEs, two OLBs, and two ILB/MLBs.
4. Because of the slippery and changing nature of defining what a fullback is, I simply decided to go with two RBs, instead of an RB and an FB.
As with most things AV-related, this series of posts is mostly just for fun, but I'm also curious to hear feedback from long-time followers of the teams about things that look fishy.
St. Louis / Arizona Cardinals
QB Jim Hart 87+ RB Ottis Anderson 68 RB Terry Metcalf 53 WR Roy Green 66 WR Mel Gray 63 TE Jackie Smith 46+ T Dan Dierdorf 86 T Luis Sharpe 74 G Conrad Dobler 43 G Bob Young 42+ C Tom Banks 58 DT Eric Swann 44 DT Bob Rowe 40+ DE Ron Yankowski 43 DE Michael Bankston 38 ILB Eric Hill 47 ILB Ronald McKinnon 43 OLB E.J. Junior 52 OLB Mark Arneson 51 CB Roger Wehrli 96+ CB Aeneas Williams 82 SS Tim McDonald 39 FS Kwamie Lassiter 27
Los Angeles / St. Louis Rams
QB Jim Everett 67 RB Marshall Faulk 88 RB Lawrence McCutcheon 73 WR Isaac Bruce 98 WR Torry Holt 93 TE Bob Klein 34+ T Orlando Pace 96 T Jackie Slater 92 G Tom Mack 71+ G Dennis Harrah 64 C Doug C. Smith 63 DT Larry Brooks 77 DT Merlin Olsen 76+ DE Jack Youngblood 122 DE Fred Dryer 77+ ILB Jack Reynolds 69 ILB Carl Ekern 52 OLB Isiah Robertson 90 OLB Jim Youngblood 57 CB LeRoy Irvin 69 CB Todd Lyght 54 SS Dave Elmendorf 71 FS Nolan Cromwell 71
San Francisco 49ers
QB Steve Young 129 RB Roger Craig 85 RB Garrison Hearst 58 WR Jerry Rice 151 WR Terrell Owens 81 TE Brent Jones 67 T Harris Barton 79 T Keith Fahnhorst 78 G Randy Cross 75 G Guy McIntyre 56 C Jesse Sapolu 66 DT Bryant Young 92 DT Michael Carter 67 DE Tommy Hart 63+ DE Cedrick Hardman 58 ILB Mike Walter 46 ILB Frank Nunley 43+ OLB Keena Turner 59 OLB Charles Haley 55 CB Ronnie Lott 101 CB Jimmy Johnson 71+ SS Tim McDonald 49 FS Merton Hanks 60
Seattle Seahawks
QB Dave Krieg 78 RB John L. Williams 74 RB Shaun Alexander 68 WR Steve Largent 103 WR Brian Blades 58 TE Itula Mili 22 T Walter Jones 90 T Steve August 47 G Chris Gray 45 G Edwin Bailey 42 C Robbie Tobeck 34 DT Cortez Kennedy 98 DT Joe Nash 77 DE Jacob Green 80 DE Jeff Bryant 70 ILB Fredd Young 40 ILB Lofa Tatupu 35 OLB Chad Brown 55 OLB Keith Butler 50 CB Dave Brown 62 CB Patrick Hunter 40 SS Kenny Easley 64 FS Eugene Robinson 67
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Where did John L. Williams rank in SEA RB? I think I would agree with Warner and Alexander above him but I was just curious how close it was
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 7:08 am | PermalinkAlso, is this total career value or just sum of ARV of the seasons that the given player was on the team - i.e Jerry Rice's 151 does not include any of his Raider season(s)
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 7:12 am | PermalinkDan, good spot on JLW. My intention was to lump fullbacks with running backs, but it turns out I was just leaving fullbacks out altogether. Williams, Warner, and Alexander are close, but Williams is actually the number one guy. I have edited the original.
Re #2, only seasons with the team are counted. Rice's 151 does not include his Raider seasons.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 7:16 am | PermalinkUh-oh, Montana's not SF's #1 QB, I smell controversy...
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 7:54 am | PermalinkI like this a lot! Just curious though, since I don't know my NFL history all that well, how hard would it be to mark the hof'ers with an asterisk, and maybe list the hof'ers that didn't make the all-franchise teams... (ala Montana). This would get a lot more interesting once you get to the "overrepresented in the hof" teams of course...
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 8:31 am | PermalinkGreat idea. I look forward to seeing more of the teams. I like russ' idea of asterisking the HOF guys. There should be two QB's, and maybe three each of RB's and WR's. But, all in all, a good idea to put some stuff in perspective (Young over Montana, no Dickerson for the Rams) as to what a player does with an individual team. Cool deal.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 9:26 am | PermalinkIt seems curious that HOFer Larry Wilson isn't one of the safeties for the Cards, losing out to Tim McDonald (does his value with the 49ers count for the Cardinals?) and Kwame Lassiter (!).
It also seems hilarious that Michael Bankston is the second-best DE in the 88 year history of the franchise, and that I don't really doubt that that's only because of weaknesses in the AV system.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 9:29 am | PermalinkMy last sentence should read "I don't really think that"...
Also, after doing a modicum of research, Larry Wilson was a 8-time Pro Bowler and a 6-time All-Pro. Those Cardinals defenses must have REALLY sucked.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 9:31 am | PermalinkI'm not a Seahawks fan, but their TE's must have really been pathetic if the best one in 30 years only has an AV of 22. That's what, two good seasons, or maybe four mediocre ones?
Also, once you are done you can add up all the AV on the all-AV teams and see which teams come out on top.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 9:43 am | PermalinkKinda surprising that Eric Dickerson didn't make the Rams team. I know he only played with the Rams for five years, but he put up monster numbers during his time there.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 10:26 am | Permalinkwhitedawg,
Larry Wilson only played 3 years for the Cardinals after 1970. This is only a post-merger list, but yes, Wilson would certainly be considered the best Cardinals safety of all time.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 10:58 am | PermalinkAs for Dickerson not being on the Rams, I think that's much more a case of how good McCutcheon really was. He made 5 Pro Bowls playing for some excellent Rams teams.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 11:16 am | PermalinkDickerson is an interesting case. AV doesn't like him at all.
The reasons are somewhat complicated, but the short version is: the Ram teams he played on were mediocre offensive teams that consistently had two or more pro bowl linemen*. AV doesn't know that Eric Dickerson was Eric Dickerson [TM]. It just sees a team that has good linemen and not-great offensive output. Ergo, the skill guys must not have been all that great.
I'm not necessarily arguing that that's right. But that's the explanation. * - you could make the case that those linemen only made the pro bowl because of Dickerson, but two of the four pro bowl linemen during Dickerson's tenure with the Rams made multiple pro bowls before Dickerson got there. And Jackie Slater wasn't one of those two. Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 11:49 am | PermalinkJust think from 1981 to 1998 the 49ers had HoF QBing.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 12:39 pm | PermalinkThere's a reasonable case to be made that Dickerson is overrated. He fumbled a ridiculous amount, even by 1980s standards, he had a short career, and his monster seasons often came about because he was getting ridiculous numbers of carries. His rate stats were good, but they certainly weren't anything near those of Barry Sanders or Bo Jackson.
I think that when 2105 falls, we're going to think of Dickerson very differently.
Posted on 19-Jun-08 at 3:09 pm | PermalinkSee, I have only been following the league for 2-3 years, so I'm not that good at historylessons. But I knoww this: St. Louis had some ridculously good passinggames. Therefore it seems weird (to me) that the Rams couldn't come up with a better TE than a 34 - and he wasn't even from the Martz-offense-era. Was that offense so good, that they didn't need a checkdown once i a while, did they play with 4 recievers, a fullback? There has got to be an explenation!
Uh, yeah - sorry for the spelling errors, you guys can probably figure out why:)
Posted on 20-Jun-08 at 7:53 am | PermalinkThe Mike Martz offense would almost always have at least three wide receivers, and a running back. They experimented with adding a second RB sometimes. Essentially, they didn't use tight ends.
Posted on 20-Jun-08 at 2:27 pm | PermalinkNot that Jerry Rice needs any hype but just look at his value of 151 versus guys making their all-time team with scores in the 20's. And he really was that good. If you missed him, you missed out.
Posted on 21-Jun-08 at 10:28 am | PermalinkNote how low ALL TE's are. Brent Jones being a worthy exclusion. Here's to Seahawks 2nd round pick John Carlson!
Posted on 21-Jun-08 at 5:31 pm | PermalinkAll hail Cortez Kennedy! The highest rated DT of these teams and one of the lone bright spots of the crappy early 90's Seahawks.
Posted on 21-Jun-08 at 5:33 pm | PermalinkAre you kidding me???? 4-0 in Super Bowls over a 12 year career (14 if you include injury years) is trumped by 1-0 in a Super Bowl in 7 year (as a starter) career. Yet longevity was supposed to rank higher. This just seems like it was made by someone who doesn't know much about football, let alone sports. Joe Montana was the greatest QB ever. Period. I would take Joe Montana over Jerry Rice any day. I mean look at this, Montana won with Clark and Solomon at WR in his first Super Bowl. This was also a much weaker team than the 94 49ers. The 94 49ers were stacked. As a matter of fact, it was Young who basically lost big games, except for that year. If he is better, how did he not win another Super Bowl the next year or even the following year with T.O. and Rice?????
Posted on 22-Jun-08 at 1:08 am | PermalinkCraig,
The answer to your question is probably: the Dallas Cowboys. They were pretty good too, at the time. Also Mike Holmgren and Fritz Shurmur knew the Niners' system so well. Teams such as the Packers had essentially been drafting and gameplanning to beat the Niners specifically for the best part of a decade.
And in the 96 playoff game at Green Bay the Niners' QB was Elvis Grbac. A bit hard to pin that exit on Young!
Posted on 23-Jun-08 at 2:26 am | PermalinkIf you make an all-NFC West starting 23, there's only one Cardinal (Wehrli). I doubt any other team in the league will be so poorly represented. Looking forward to the rest...
Posted on 23-Jun-08 at 2:31 am | PermalinkLate to the party, but I'm a little curious about Leo Nomellini's absence at Defensive Tackle for the Niners. He didn't miss a game for 14 years playing OT and DT, went to 10 Pro Bowls, and was a 4-time all pro.
Posted on 13-Jul-08 at 4:29 pm | PermalinkIf you read this, do you think you could run the numbers and let us know why he was out?
Thanks!
Never mind. Just saw the "post-merger" caveat. That'll teach me to read the whole post before replying!
Posted on 13-Jul-08 at 4:30 pm | PermalinkI've been a 'Niner fan for over twenty years. Not only is Steve Young the best QB in 'Niners history, he's the best in NFL history.
Posted on 20-Aug-08 at 9:47 pm | PermalinkI'm surprised that Terry Metcalf edged out Stump Mitchell for the Cardinals' RB spot... Also, I'm curious as to how close the race was for the Cardinals' 2nd receiver slot. Roy Green is the clear first choice, but Pat Tilley, Frank Sanders, Rob Moore, JT Smith, Boldin and Fitzgerald all must have been very close to Mel Gray..
Posted on 25-Dec-08 at 3:16 pm | Permalink