All time NFL QBs: The Best Edition
Posted by Chase Stuart on Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Before the 2006 season, I wrote about the best quarterbacks of all time. With some more data on my hands, I decided to update that post. On Friday I discussed the methodology used, and yesterday, I ranked the worst quarterbacks in league history.
A couple of reminders. One, I ignored all post-season data, at least for now, mostly because it's a complicated issue that's worth separating out for a day. Later on this week, I plan to revisit post-season data. Two, on the list of the greatest QBs ever, I'm including sack data, and rushing yards, and using the league average as my baseline. Occasionally, though, I'll use some other requirements when the rankings change substantially as a result.
What was the greatest season in QB history? It's been almost a quarter-century, but Dan Marino's 1984 season still stands alone. Sure, Marino averaged 8.51 adjusted yards per pass and 8.11 adjusted net yards per pass, but a few other QBs have topped that. What makes Marino's season so amazing was that he kept that pace up for over 564 passes, in an era where the league average QB threw for just 4.61 adjusted net yards per attempt.
Peyton Manning and Tom Brady don't come far behind, with their 2004 and 2007 seasons ranking second and third, respectively. Right behind those years is Otto Graham's 1953 season, an oft forgotten yet incredible season. Graham averaged 9.41 AY/A while the rest of the NFL averaged only 3.40 adjusted yards per attempt. The table below shows the top 50 seasons by all QBs in NFL history. Remember, the second to last category, "RY4.0", shows how many adjusted rushing yards over 4.0 yards per carry that each QB had that season:
year att pyd ptd icp sk-syd any/a RY4.0 Rating Dan Marino 1984 MIA 564 5084 48 17 13-120 8.11 0 2098 Peyton Manning 2004 IND 497 4557 49 10 13-101 8.82 0 1885 Tom Brady 2007 NWE 578 4806 50 8 21-128 8.04 0 1817 Otto Graham 1953 CLE 258 2722 11 9 - 9.41 31 1808 Steve Young 1992 SFO 402 3465 25 7 29-152 7.54 273 1611 Bert Jones 1976 BAL 343 3104 24 9 29-284 7.14 82 1506 Sid Luckman 1943 CHI 202 2194 28 12 - 9.57 0 1499 Kurt Warner 1999 STL 499 4353 41 13 29-201 7.53 10 1490 Steve Young 1994 SFO 461 3969 35 10 31-163 7.53 131 1407 Dan Fouts 1981 SDG 609 4802 33 17 19-134 6.74 0 1399 Peyton Manning 2006 IND 557 4397 31 9 14-86 7.38 0 1396 Daunte Culpepper2004 MIN 548 4717 39 11 46-238 7.36 74 1388 John Brodie 1970 SFO 378 2941 24 10 8-67 6.90 13 1360 Jeff Garcia 2000 SFO 561 4278 31 10 24-155 6.81 166 1354 Milt Plum 1960 CLE 250 2297 21 5 - 9.13 0 1344 George Blanda 1961 HOU 362 3330 36 22 - 7.46 0 1342 Randall Cunning.1998 MIN 425 3704 34 10 20-132 7.78 14 1324 Ken Anderson 1981 CIN 479 3754 29 10 25-140 6.85 146 1318 Len Dawson 1962 DTX 310 2759 29 17 - 7.37 130 1297 Ken Anderson 1975 CIN 377 3169 21 11 32-247 6.45 12 1292 Joe Montana 1989 SFO 386 3521 26 8 33-198 7.69 61 1277 Dan Fouts 1982 SDG 330 2883 17 11 12-94 7.20 0 1275 Joe Montana 1984 SFO 432 3630 28 10 22-138 7.32 0 1267 Steve Young 1993 SFO 462 4023 29 16 31-160 6.96 151 1262 Mark Rypien 1991 WAS 421 3564 28 11 7-59 7.69 0 1257 Drew Brees 2006 NOR 554 4418 26 11 18-105 7.13 0 1248 Steve Young 1998 SFO 517 4170 36 12 48-234 6.65 234 1248 Johnny Unitas 1964 BAL 305 2824 19 6 - 9.00 34 1225 Peyton Manning 2003 IND 566 4267 29 10 18-107 6.85 0 1220 Warren Moon 1990 HOU 584 4689 33 13 36-252 6.75 15 1214 Peyton Manning 2005 IND 453 3747 28 10 17-81 7.44 0 1189 Kurt Warner 2001 STL 546 4830 36 22 38-233 6.79 0 1189 Sammy Baugh 1947 WAS 354 2938 25 15 - 7.10 0 1167 Len Dawson 1966 KAN 284 2527 26 10 - 8.23 71 1164 Bart Starr 1966 GNB 251 2257 14 3 - 9.01 40 1158 Dan Marino 1986 MIA 623 4746 44 23 17-119 6.30 0 1146 Boomer Esiason 1988 CIN 388 3572 28 14 30-245 7.12 86 1144 Roger Staubach 1971 DAL 211 1882 15 4 23-175 7.17 199 1144 Joe Theismann 1983 WAS 459 3714 29 11 34-242 6.63 96 1142 Donovan McNabb 2004 PHI 469 3875 31 8 32-192 7.25 86 1130 Daunte Culpepper2000 MIN 474 3937 33 16 34-181 6.63 184 1115 Peyton Manning 2000 IND 571 4413 33 15 20-131 6.66 0 1111 Neil Lomax 1984 STL 560 4614 28 16 49-377 6.23 74 1105 Roman Gabriel 1973 PHI 460 3219 23 12 31-219 5.48 0 1096 Roger Staubach 1979 DAL 461 3586 27 11 36-240 6.28 24 1091 Ken Anderson 1974 CIN 328 2667 18 10 36-292 5.78 162 1081 NormVanBrocklin 1953 RAM 286 2393 19 14 - 6.83 0 1073 Rich Gannon 2002 OAK 618 4689 26 10 36-214 6.55 0 1072 Steve McNair 2003 TEN 400 3215 24 7 19-108 7.24 26 1059 Steve DeBerg 1990 KAN 444 3444 23 4 22-191 7.09 0 1056
There are a bunch of old seasons on there, outside of Graham's gem in '53. Sid Luckman's terrific 1943 year makes the cut, along with Sammy Baugh's 1947 and Norm Van Brocklin's 1953 performances. A whopping five of Peyton Manning's seasons are in the top 50, along with four of Steve Young's and three of Ken Anderson's, while Roger Staubach, Len Dawson, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, and Daunte Culpepper each are on there twice. One of those is not like the other. And while only one of Unitas' seasons makes the cut, he does have three other years of over 900 yards above average.
We can also look at the best QB in the NFL for each of say, the last 38 seasons.
Quarterback Year Team ANY/A Rating Tom Brady 2007 NWE 8.04 1817 Peyton Manning 2006 IND 7.38 1396 Peyton Manning 2005 IND 7.44 1189 Peyton Manning 2004 IND 8.82 1885 Peyton Manning 2003 IND 6.85 1220 Rich Gannon 2002 OAK 6.55 1072 Kurt Warner 2001 STL 6.79 1189 Jeff Garcia 2000 SFO 6.81 1354 Kurt Warner 1999 STL 7.53 1490 Randall Cunningham 1998 MIN 7.78 1324 Steve Young 1997 SFO 6.98 904 Brett Favre 1996 GNB 5.94 707 Brett Favre 1995 GNB 6.62 1040 Steve Young 1994 SFO 7.53 1407 Steve Young 1993 SFO 6.96 1262 Steve Young 1992 SFO 7.54 1611 Mark Rypien 1991 WAS 7.69 1257 Warren Moon 1990 HOU 6.75 1214 Joe Montana 1989 SFO 7.69 1277 Boomer Esiason 1988 CIN 7.12 1144 Bernie Kosar 1987 CLE 6.62 863 Dan Marino 1986 MIA 6.30 1146 Ken O'Brien 1985 NYJ 6.14 944 Dan Marino 1984 MIA 8.11 2098 Joe Theismann 1983 WAS 6.63 1142 Dan Fouts 1982 SDG 7.20 1275 Dan Fouts 1981 SDG 6.74 1399 Brian Sipe 1980 CLE 6.21 1056 Roger Staubach 1979 DAL 6.28 1091 Roger Staubach 1978 DAL 5.62 927 Roger Staubach 1977 DAL 5.57 1031 Bert Jones 1976 BAL 7.14 1506 Ken Anderson 1975 CIN 6.45 1292 Ken Anderson 1974 CIN 5.78 1081 Roman Gabriel 1973 PHI 5.48 1096 Joe Namath 1972 NYJ 5.85 741 Roger Staubach 1971 DAL 7.17 1144 John Brodie 1970 SFO 6.90 1360
Manning, Young and Staubach all appear on the list four times, while no other QB has been tops in the league more than twice. Warner, Favre, Marino, Fouts and Ken Anderson were the others to rank as the best regular season QBs in multiple seasons. While the Bengals, Browns, Jets and Redskins each had two separate QBs once lead the league, the San Francisco 49ers had an incredible four different QBs rank as the league's main man.
Okay, enough stalling. How about the all time career list? Who ranks as the top regular season QB in NFL history? There are so many interesting names on this list that I'm going to show the top 75 guys.
att Rating 1 Dan Marino 8358 8593 2 Peyton Manning 5405 7946 3 Steve Young 4149 7739 4 Fran Tarkenton 6467 7140 5 Joe Montana 5391 7006 6 Dan Fouts 5604 6672 7 Johnny Unitas 5186 6211 8 Ken Anderson 4475 5974 9 Roger Staubach 2958 5680 10 Len Dawson 3741 5604 11 Brett Favre 8758 5107 12 Norm Van Brocklin 2895 4688 13 Sonny Jurgensen 4262 4525 14 Otto Graham 1565 4250 15 John Elway 7250 4123 16 Bart Starr 3149 4101 17 Boomer Esiason 5205 4013 18 Kurt Warner 2959 4004 19 Tom Brady 3642 3845 20 Roman Gabriel 4498 3844 21 Warren Moon 6823 3787 22 Trent Green 3668 3694 23 Sid Luckman 1744 3667 24 John Hadl 4687 3634 25 Y.A. Tittle 3817 3632 26 Jim Hart 5076 3610 27 Daryle Lamonica 2601 3519 28 Steve McNair 4544 3515 29 Jeff Garcia 3300 3342 30 Joe Namath 3762 3339 31 Rich Gannon 4206 3331 32 Sammy Baugh 2995 3305 33 Daunte Culpepper 2927 3224 34 Jim Kelly 4779 3009 35 John Brodie 4491 2970 36 Bert Jones 2551 2965 37 Troy Aikman 4715 2919 38 Donovan McNabb 3732 2903 39 Terry Bradshaw 3901 2799 40 Bob Griese 3429 2785 41 Earl Morrall 2689 2723 42 Mark Brunell 4594 2644 43 Billy Kilmer 2984 2571 44 Craig Morton 3786 2558 45 Randall Cunningham 4289 2477 46 Jim Everett 4923 2452 47 Steve Grogan 3593 2407 48 Bobby Layne 3700 2396 49 Ken Stabler 3793 2294 50 Mark Rypien 2613 2285 51 Drew Brees 3015 2236 52 Vinny Testaverde 6701 2169 53 Bernie Kosar 3365 2092 54 Don Meredith 2308 2024 55 Joe Theismann 3602 1992 56 Matt Hasselbeck 3138 1919 57 Charlie Conerly 2833 1900 58 Doug Williams 2507 1892 59 Brad Johnson 4248 1840 60 Phil Simms 4647 1810 61 Greg Landry 2300 1804 62 Milt Plum 2419 1766 63 George Blanda 4007 1726 64 Brian Sipe 3439 1692 65 Carson Palmer 2036 1666 66 Dave Krieg 5311 1663 67 Frank Ryan 2133 1662 68 Bill Nelsen 1905 1660 69 Neil Lomax 3153 1657 70 Steve DeBerg 5024 1595 71 Johnny Lujack 808 1584 72 Joe Ferguson 4519 1503 73 Billy Wade 2523 1501 74 Marc Bulger 2484 1442 75 Doug Flutie 2151 1422
This list seems to coincide well with perception: Outside of Anderson, everyone in the top 16 is in the Hall of Fame, or will be in the HOF. Warren Moon ranks 21st, Sid Luckman 23rd, Y.A. Tittle 25th, Joe Namath 30th, Sammy Baugh 32nd, Jim Kelly 34th, Troy Aikman 38th, Terry Bradshaw 39th, Bob Griese 40th, Bobby Layne 48th, and George Blanda 63rd. And for the most part, a lot of active guys are separating those QBs, especially high on the list. In other words, among those eligible, the HOF has done a pretty good job. And we all know Blanda was more than just a quarterback.
Other thoughts
- There's not much to say about Marino that hasn't already been said. But here's something interesting -- if you ignore sack data, Marino would have came in at ninth on this list, with everyone in the top 10 besides Dan Fouts passing him. Marino added 5,622 yards above average as QB when looking just at AY/A, compared to the 8,593 yards above average when including sack data and using ANY/A. That's interesting to me for two reasons. One, for Marino haters, it's much, much easier than I would have thought to discount his incredible raw statistics, by simply ignoring his ability to avoid sacks. Two, for all the talk about Marino, his ability to avoid sacks rarely seems to come up in conversation. That's unfortunate.
- I was shocked to see Manning so high on the list. But consider, he's already thrown more career passes than Joe Montana. Manning is immune to changes such as using sack data or not, or using the league average or 75% of the league average as the baseline. He's compiled great data for long enough that he still ranks second on all the lists.
- Similar to the Marino comment, what's up with Steve Young? Young's sack numbers are largely similar to the league average, which is surprising for a mobile QB on a great team that relied on the short passing game. Part of the reason, no doubt, is that Young's scrambling (which he's often credited for) led to slightly more sacks than you might recall. He would rank first overall if we exclude sack data (although that's much more due to the fact that Marino and Manning drop once you do that). Of course, even at third on the list some will think this is too high for him, but Young was absolutely dominant both as an individual and as part of a team. He led some incredibly productive offenses and put up some mind blowing statistics. Think of it this way -- as good as Peyton Manning is, before 2007, he had a bunch more career passing attempts but ranked behind Young in career value.
- Fran Tarkenton doesn't get enough love. Nine of his seasons were among the top 200 seasons of all time. And for as long as he played, he wasn't a compiler -- he ranks sixth on the list if you drop the baseline to 75% of league average. Tarkenton got sacked a bunch, and would have ranked second if we excluded that data (which is a good argument for not excluding it. If you want to give him credit for scrambling, you have to punish him for getting sacked.) More than anyone else, his reputation seems to have faded over time, belying how terrific he was.
- What's there to say about Montana ranking #5? Lost in all the Montana debates is how good of a regular season QB he really was. He didn't throw a lot of passes, and he didn't play in an incredible passing era, so his raw career stats are less than impressive. The nice part about this study is that he still ranks as the fifth best QB in history based on regular season data. If you knew nothing about Montana's post-season, his career numbers in the regular season are good enough to rank him as one of the handful of best quarterbacks in league history. I think that's a pretty good endorsement of this system. And for the few Montana bashers out there, note well: two of Montana's best three statistical seasons came before Jerry Rice was drafted.
- I'm going to lump Fouts and Anderson together and get to them in a second. Unitas at #7 on this list is pretty cool. It's nice to adjust for era and then see him so highly ranked. One odd note is that he had two down years at age 28 and 29, the worst two years out of all of Unitas' first twelve seasons. To get a sense of Unitas and his era, here's how he ranked each of his first ten seasons, with the top QB that season also noted:
1956 3 Tobin Rote 1957 1 1958 2 Bobby Layne 1959 1 1960 3 Milt Plum 1961 Below League Average 1962 Below League Average 1963 1 1964 1 1965 2 Rudy Bukich
It's worth noting that from '56 to '59, there were only 12 teams in the league, but those ranks look pretty impressive to me.
- Unlike the other QBs mentioned above, no one really makes an argument for Dan Fouts or Ken Anderson as being the best QB of all time. And there simply isn't a reasonable argument to make. But that doesn't mean they should get ignored as often as I think they do when discussing the all time greats. Those guys never won a Super Bowl, and sure they benefited from the systems they played in, but they were simply outstanding in their primes. Each have two seasons among the league's top 20 QB seasons of all time. Fouts' career doesn't get nearly enough love, and obviously, it's a joke that Ken Anderson isn't in the Hall of Fame.
- Roger Staubach is one of those 'what if' guys. He missed the prime of his career, yet still ranks in the top ten and his rating relative to his number of attempts is off the charts. The argument could be made that Staubach would be considered the greatest QB in league history if he entered the league at age 22. When you put up over 3,000 yards above the league average at ages 35, 36 and 37, you are entitled to the benefit of some doubt.
- The last QB in our top ten is Len Dawson, who beats out Favre for the final spot. Dawson's another guy who got a late start -- his first season as a starter was at age 27. Sure, Favre threw over 5,000 more passes than Dawson, but Dawson made a lot more out of those attempts. Favre gets the longevity award -- he ranks third on the all time list if we drop the baseline to three-fourths of league average. While that might be appropriate if we're deciding who was more valuable over the full length of their careers, that's not as useful when deciding who was really the best. Before the NFL merged, only nine times in history did a QB post a QB Rating of over 98 while having at least 200 attempts, and Dawson (three) was the only one to do it more than once. Favre is overrated by a lot of people, and underrated (as backlash) by just as many, but I think putting him somewhere in the 5-15 range sounds right to me. It's easy to get fooled by either his gaudy career numbers or his few down seasons later on in his career.
- One other guy should at least be considered for the best QB in NFL history -- Otto Graham. I excluded Graham's AAFC stats, but Graham can make the same argument as Staubach, only moreso. He actually ranks even higher than Staubach on a "rating" to "attempts" ratio, and we can only guess how terrific he'd look if he played his whole career in the NFL. Longevity is an issue, but he ranks as the 15th best QB despite playing only six seasons in the NFL. He ranked as the league's top QB in three of those years, and ranked second, third and seventh the other three seasons. And, of course, the Browns went to the NFL title game in each of those six seasons.
Obviously there are lots of other things to comment about, but I'll leave that to you guys. Check back tomorrow for another look at these QBs.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 24th, 2008 at 6:21 AM and filed under History, Statgeekery. Follow comments here with the RSS 2.0 feed. Skip to the end and leave a response. Trackbacks are closed.
Tarkenton's rep is a victim of the tendency to over-rate post-season, or more accurately, championship game performance. Aikman, Bradshaw, Layne, and Griese in the HoF ahead of Anderson is a perfect example (and I really don't have a problem with any of those guys being IN, it's Anderson being OUT that is a joke).
Mark Rypien - best qb in the league, 1991 and worst, 1993. Alomst as great a fall as Culpepper's.
Len Dawson is a guy who was in the wrong place at the wrong time.
1957, PIT - Earl Morrall (41st all-time on your list) was the starter at age 23. Dawson was 22. Jack Kemp was also on that team and 22. Kemp is a guy who probably is over-rated for winning titles but that's quite a list of qbs aged 23 or younger.
1958, PIT - Now Dawson is not only behind the young Morrall, but the team has added HoFer to be Bobby Layne (48th all-time).
1959 - Morrall gone but Layne still there.
1960 - Dawson moves to CLE and there's Milt Plum, 62nd all-time and about to post the 15th best season by a QB. Both were 25.
1961 - Still behind Plum.
1962 - AFL MVP and 19th best QB season of all time
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 8:05 am | PermalinkOk, I'm going to say it, so Denny doesn't have to:
OMG! Marino's 1st on your list! He NEVER even WON a SUPER BOWL! Something must be TERRIBLY WRONG with your SYSTEM! NO WAY can he be the BEST QB in NFL history. Lots of QBs had more VALUE than he did, and were more CAPABLE of WINNING in the POSTSEASON.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 8:51 am | PermalinkBased on Chase's definition and how he formulated it, that is where the #'s came out. Including post season data would be interesting though because of the intensity and the level of competition. Would this bring up the rankings of Montana, Aikman, Bradshaw, or even Staubach? I would think it would be a big positive for a Bart Starr but would not be so good for a Y.A. Tittle or a Craig Morton.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 9:43 am | PermalinkAn additional comment--maybe I didn't look at the list carefully but I was surprised that Y.A. Tittle's years of 1962 and 1963 were not on there. As far as raw #'s go, they were pretty impressive.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 9:52 am | PermalinkDuante Culpepper is quite the enigma.
I remember early in the first year he was the starter, and after watching him run the ball one time, I was afraid nobody would ever be able to stop this guy.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 10:20 am | PermalinkBased on Chase’s definition and how he formulated it, that is where the #’s came out.
I know. I think these rankings are just fine. I was just anticipating the inevitable rant from Denny about postseason success.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 10:44 am | PermalinkIf you included Graham's AAFC seasons (or even pro-rated them for level of competition), how much higher does he rank? He was absurdly good compared to his peers--and to rank 15th all time for only 6 NFL seasons is unreal. Two more average (for him) seasons would put him in the top 10. Chase, you have to tell us where he ranks if you include his AAFC seasons--my guess is he jumps to #4, because he doesn't have enough attempts to pass the first 3.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 11:06 am | PermalinkHey Tim
Tittle's '63 season ranks 65th, and his '62 year ranks 215th. His 1953 season ranks as the 132nd best, making it his second best year. Part of the reason it ranks lower than you might expect? The league averages those years were pretty similar to those in modern times. Tittle wasn't the top QB in the league either of those years. Unitas, Jurgensen, Dawson, Starr, Brodie, Gabriel, Rote, Morrall, Kemp and Tarkenton all had decent years in either '62 and/or '63. The league average AY/A was 5.7 and 5.6 in 1962 and 1963. From '62 to '65, the league passing numbers were at a level that wouldn't be hit again for another 20 years.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 11:39 am | PermalinkHey Joseph,
I'm not sure how to pro-rate them for level of competition. It's worth noting that Graham averaged 8.58 AY/A in the AAFC, and then 4.68 AY/A his first year in the NFL. There was a significant gap in talent, which is probably part of the reason why the NFL doesn't recognize those statistics as official.
That said, if you pretend that Graham's numbers were made in the NFL, we'd give him 1,694 yards above average for '49, 1,018 for '48, 1,559 for '47, and 1,268 for '46. Using the 100/95/90 method that we apply to all QBs, that would bump his career value to 8.599, which obviously passes Marino by the slimmest of margins.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 11:55 am | PermalinkAlex---Not even close to what I'm thinking. First off-Chase already set the parameters-NO POST-SEASON DATA INCLUDED (why should it be included-YOU all know it's just a waste of time anyway). Second, it underscores exactly what alot of people have posted in the past--NOBODY had more success in the Reg. season and then followed it with very little success in the playoffs. This is actually more of a knock on Marino than anything else.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 2:24 pm | PermalinkOh, I see. Marino's high ranking is just more proof that he sucked. Got it. Whatever you say.
Just one thing, though. I'd like to point out that the previous rankings also excluded postseason data, and you complained when those rankings put Marino at #1.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 2:50 pm | PermalinkAlex---I didn't realize at first that Post-season data was not included (I'm not sure it was ever clearly stated at the beginning), but more than that-it was to show the "VALUE" or actually Approx. value (AV) of each player, and Marino came out on top for his (QB) position. I found it rather unbelievable that his value could be that high when he (amongst other things) managed to be "VALUABLE" to his Team in only 25% of the ABSOLUTE BIGGEST GAMES in his CAREER. Look at how he played in 3 out of his 4 Conf. Champ. and S.B. games----a Comp. % UNDER 50%, 4 TD's BUT 6 INT's, a Passer Rating of around 60, and he led his offense to an avg. of only 13 p.p.g.---and 2 of these were IN MIAMI and the third was at a neutral site. Now, if THAT doesn't LOWER a QB's VALUE, then what does??
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 5:08 pm | PermalinkBoomer Esiason ranks as the 17th best QB of all time on this list. That seemed really high to me, but maybe I'm underrating his reputation. He had two terrific years of 1000+, and then four other very good ones. It's odd because I never thought of him as a compiler, but he ranks 12th if you drop the baseline to 0.75 of league average, indicating that he did pile up above average statistics for awhile. He ended his career in a quirky way -- in '92, he was at -665, but in '93 he bounced back to +619. Then in '95 he was -548, before finishing at +556 in '97. In the late '80s though, he was pretty outstanding. He ranked higher than Montana and Marino in three of the five years, above Elway four of the five years, and ahead of Kelly and Moon in each of the five years. It may not have been Moon's prime, but that was pretty much the prime for the other four HOF QBs; meanwhile, Boomer seems largely forgotten in the HOF talks.
Maybe there's a Bengals QB exception to the HOF.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 5:35 pm | PermalinkThe absence of Anderson (and to a leser degree Boomer, although he should definitely be considered) from the HOF, and thinking about the other lists on this site led me to think if they can be used to present the best elligible player at each possition not in the HOF.
That would certainly be interesting (I'm predicting Terrel Davis and Richard Dent to join Anderson in that category).
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 6:30 pm | PermalinkWOOHOO!!! Us DolFans sure needed *something* to feel good about! Thanks, Chase!
And it sure is nice to see Brady come up short again
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 6:44 pm | PermalinkDenny has shared his opinion many times. Others have responded to it many times.
*Everyone* is welcome to continue to commenting on this thread, but we are not going to have the exact same conversation we've had before.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 6:45 pm | PermalinkLoking at the list of active players in the Top 75 there are some interesting things to be see. The most obvious one is that Maning is one or two good seasons away from passing Marino as #1, and barring any career-ending injuries, he's all but guaranteed that spot for quite a while.
Giving Boomer's chances a prety big blow, Warner is one Leinart injury away from passing Esaison for #17 (I mean, with that recieving corps, and with fumbles getting taken out of hte equation, I don't think he'll go backwards).
Of course, they'll actually be fighting for #18, since Brady's going to vault into Graham/Elway teriotry next season, and will very likely end his career in the Top 10.
Trent Green on the other hand is one Bulger injury away from falling 1-6 places on the list. Or getting klled. Whichever comes first.
With a decent Bucs season Garcia´s going to pass McNair (and probably others) this year, which doesn't seem right, excep he did lead the league the one year witht he niners.
Wether Culpepper plays or not this season, he has enough padding on either side of him that I don't think he'll move even one spot. He should be pretty mediocre if called upon.
McNabb is going to pass Aikman this season, which should give Cowboys fans fits.
Brees is not only going to crack the Top 50 this season but could reasonably make a run at cracking the Top 40.
And Matt Hasselbeck is going to pass Joe Theisman, Bernie Kossar and possibly Randall Cunningham this year. Now there's an underrated QB f I ever saw one (curse of playing in Seatle I guess).
Palmer can make a run at the Top 50, if the CIncinati recieving soap opera can get itself under controll.
And Bulger can assure Flutie of remaining in the Top 75 even if some other QB cracks it if his line play is naything like last year.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 6:52 pm | PermalinkDoug---I'll say one last thing---try to point out one post where facts and stats weren't the main content of my posts. You've never read an opinion from me that wasn't backed up by stats and facts.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 7:01 pm | PermalinkGood thoughts, Alvaro. It will be interesting to watch this list change over the years. Obviously another monster Brady year could leap him past Favre, although I suspect he's already ahead of Favre in the eyes of many people.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 7:21 pm | PermalinkI knew Marino '84 would top the list the moment I saw that the lgANY/A in '84 was only 4.61, compared to 5.23 in '04(Manning) and 5.11 in '07(Brady). A few months ago, espn.com did a list of the greatest sports seasons ever and I argued(after the compilers predictably ranked '07 Brady the highest football player) that Marino, Manning and Brady should share a spot because there's a great case to be made for all three. What makes Marino's '84 season so amazing was his combination of high atts with a ridiculously high Y/A(9.0). Not only that, but he completed 362 passes and averaged 14.0 Y/C, which seems almost impossible especially considering his fairly high comp% of 64.1. And 17 INTs really wasn't a lot considering the era, the 564 atts, and the fact that Marino was just launching it all over the place. And it's worth noting that Marino's 5,084 passing yards look better and more unbreakable every year.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 7:22 pm | PermalinkIf postseason data gets included, Montana will shoot up(and some others will go down). He is to the playoffs what Marino and Favre are to the regular season. And if you weight the stats on basis of type of playoff game(Super Bowl, ConfChamp, etc...), Montana probably kills everyone else.
It's amazing how many people call Joe Namath overrated just because of all the INTs. Usually, when I argue on his behalf by pointing out that Namath needs CONTEXT to fully be appreciated, that context is his importance to the game's history. Here, that context can also be that statistically he was simply great comparable to his peers. Obviously, being 30th is not THAT great, but he beats out a bunch of guys that others would consider better. And when you consider that he was injured for much of his career...
Peyton Manning's gonna hit 10,000 before his career is over. That's just ridiculous. And the fact that he racked up the second best single season ever without any help from rushing numbers and only 510 combined atts/sacks--compared with 577 for Marino and 599 for Brady--is just mind-boggling. If Manning had actually played the entire '04 finale, he'd almost certainly own the greatest season ever.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 7:36 pm | PermalinkRe: #9 Chase:
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 8:38 pm | PermalinkThanks. I have always wondered why older writers touted Graham as one of the best ever--now I see why. I don't know on the pro-rating, but for this list, I say maybe take his ay/att above league avg. for his first 4 yrs. in the NFL. Then, calculate his RATIO above league avg. (say he was 25% ABOVE AVG for his first 4 NFL seasons) and give him that figure for each of those AAFC seasons. Say the AAFC league avg. without him in those seasons was 3.0, 3.1, 3.3, and 3.2. Then Graham gets 3.75, 3.875, 4.125, and 4.0 ay/att. Don't know if you can make that work, but you know the formula better. My idea is basically to normalize his #'s as if he was in the NFL without taking too much away from his greatness.
(BTW, since this isn't the NFL stats database or anything official, maybe play with the ratios/percentages a little bit and come up with a number that "feels right." You can always put it in a post-list comment like you did with everyone else.)
Any chance you can post the QB's that ranked 76-100? I'm curious to see some certain names in there, and how the list overall compares to this one: http://www.armchairgm.com/index.php?title=The_100_Greatest_Quarterbacks_of_the_Modern_Era
Graham's 1953 season would have been even better if he found the endzone with more of his passes. His scant 11 TD passes ranked only 7th in the league that year. The 10.55 YPA is an amazing number, and the only way a QB is getting close to that in a season today is if he gets injured mid-season after playing out of his mind.
Good to see Ken Anderson's 1974 season in the top 50. A very underrated season. He led the league in completions, comp. %, yards, YPA, and rating. And he did this in 13 games (missed 1), with no RB topping 400 yards, no receiver with more than 32 catches or 633 yards, and an average defense.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 10:48 pm | PermalinkI disagree that postseason play is overrated - postseason play requires more of a quarterback than just the regular season. This is why Marino could compile wonderful numbers and win a pile of games in 17 regular seasons yet should not be ranked above Tom Brady or Peyton Manning or Steve McNair because Marino had only an 8-10 career playoff record. This failing is especially noteworthy when one considers Brtt Favre, who always wn big in the regular season but was a postseason loser; his 12-10 recrd is overrated even as-is.
Having said that, one can't dsmiss the regular season numbers as well, so certainly Marino should be loved by Miami Dolphins fans and football fans in general.
Boomer Esiason is one who neve gets the analysis he should; people forget how good he really was, especially with a typically-dreadful NY Jets team and the always-cheap-bastard Cardinals. Esiason is one who deserved better than what he got career-wise.
Kurt Warner is one that leaves me wondering, because he had a mediocre 2000 season due in part to injury, then when the Rams lost SB XXXCI his career collapsed to where he never won another game for St. Louis and was strictly holding down the fort for Eli Manning with the Giants. can't figure this one out.
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 11:02 pm | PermalinkI think the list looks great!
Garcia and Moon both lost part of their career numbers in the CFL. Moon's combined passing yardage is over 70,000! I'm not suggesting the CFL and NFL data is comparable like that, but playing in a different league for years would certainly affect their NFL career numbers here.
Other random Moon trivia: I think he's the only player in both the NFL and CFL hall of fame. He's got the second most passing yards in a game in the NFL (527). He had the chance to break the record but they chose to run the clock out towards the end.
I'm always surprised by Garcia too. He's had four years with QB ratings in the 90s though. He always seems "not quite" to me. Not quite the poise of a Joe Montana, not quite the scrambling ability of a Randall Cunningham, but he's still pretty darn good at either. And hey, he got along (somewhat) with TO which seems pretty impressive in itself
The problem with postseason data is I don't think it averages out like regular seasons. A guy who makes the playoffs on a perennial wildcard team is going to have lousy numbers compared to somebody with a dominant team. So to make the data meaningful, one would have to account for the quality of the opposition, a herculean task. I think if one includes postseason data and accounts for the quality of the opponents, the list would not change all that significantly. Even guys like Montana don't have THAT many playoff games...
Posted on 24-Jun-08 at 11:10 pm | PermalinkMike Daly, Steve McNair is one of the worst postseason QB's ever. No question worse than Marino.
He wouldn't even have the opportunity to play 3 more postseason games in 1999 without the Music City Miracle, which happened in a game he played pretty impotent in (a common theme for Mac-9 and the playoffs).
Posted on 25-Jun-08 at 12:04 am | PermalinkRe: Culpepper
One of the more interesting parts of Dr. Z's Viking Super Bowl prediction column was this quote from Brad Childress, on Daunte Culpepper:
"Daunte was a guy who always used his legs. He wasn't an anticipatory thrower. He had to see the whites of their eyes. And once he got hurt, well, coming back from the injury, he couldn't play that way."
Culpepper sort of reminded me of a Tecmo Super Bowl quarterback. You know in Tecmo Super Bowl, the open receivers were %100 not covered? And when you were controlling the quarterback, there was absolutely no reason to stay in the pocket, and you could just ramble around back there for as long as you wanted until you picked which receiver to throw to? And you didn't need any timing, because as soon as you wanted to throw it you just pushed the button? That was Culpepper from '99-'04. Really fun while it lasted.
Posted on 25-Jun-08 at 12:12 am | PermalinkRock #21, Manning also sat out 4-5 additional final quarters in games in 2004 after already racking up 4-6 TDs. If he had played and those games were closer in addition to the finale... well, basically add two more games worth of data to his 2004 stats to see.
Posted on 25-Jun-08 at 12:36 am | PermalinkI did a quick poking around with the data from the previous thread. I smoothed the AYA from year to year by averaging it with the year before and year after. It looks like 1977 would take a pretty big hit as well as 1992, 2003, and 1971. 2004, 1972, 1976, and 1981 would have significantly lower averages. Whether this makes any difference in career numbers, I have no idea. The graph is here if anybody is interested:
Posted on 25-Jun-08 at 1:45 am | Permalinkhttp://farm4.static.flickr.com/3129/2609372625_e681f2a7a9_o.jpg
Re:Bobman -- Yep, that's always been one of the reasons why I'd argue for Manning's season being better than Brady...considering what Brady did in the 4th quarters of blowouts this past season. If Manning had thrown 50 more passes that season, his Y/A of 9.2 probably wouldn't have held up, but he certainly would've thrown for around 4900 yards and about 53 TDs...and his Y/A would've hovered around 9. Another noteworthy stat for Manning that year--13.6 Y/C, easily the best of his career. Similar to Marino, who never approached his 14.0 Y/C after 1984.
Posted on 25-Jun-08 at 11:37 am | Permalink29: QBs with 2004 seasons are probably being unfairly penalized in the current system. As the smoothed-out graph shows, 2004 was an aberration in favor of passing offense. If you think about what was happening that year, it's not a surprise. And it's not because it was easier to pass that year. It was just a lot of good offensive players staying healthy and putting up career years at the same time, because the right pieces were in place.
Manning had the healthy receiving corps, including Stokley, and we all know how that year turned out. Donovan McNabb had his last hurrah with TO before everything went to hell; likewise for Culpepper and Moss. Brady had his best supporting cast on offense in his pre-2007 career. Marc Bulger managed a rare healthy season. Drew Brees finally developed as a quarterback over in San Diego. The wheels hadn't yet come off of the Chiefs offense, letting Trent Green put up yet another fabulous year. Brett Favre had a good year with a breakout Javon Walker. Carolina had recently discovered Jake Delhomme. And of course, Ben Roethlisberger finally gave Pittsburgh the QB it had been looking for.
2004 didn't systematically favor offense. It was just a confluence of a whole lot of breakouts and career years, with a very low number of injuries to good offensive players. In other years, TO went nuclear, Culpepper and McNabb got uber-injured, Brady had much worse help on offense, the Chiefs line fell apart, Favre lost Walker for a season and lost focus for two, Roeth had his year of mishaps, etc. These sorts of things happen in most years, but everyone just got lucky in 2004.
Posted on 25-Jun-08 at 2:34 pm | PermalinkI dunno, Yaguar. The rule changes prior to '04 seemed to have an immediate effect. Sure, the '05 numbers were down, but I think it's always very wise to keep an eye on rule changes or increased emphases on inforcement.
On the other side, as my buddy has noted before, Culpepper and Manning played mostly the same opponents that year. They both benefited because most of their opponents were pretty bad, even when you remove Culpepper and Manning's performances against those opponents.
Posted on 25-Jun-08 at 2:53 pm | PermalinkYaguar, I agree 100% and always have felt that way about that year.
The reason the numbers shot up from 2003 (a down year for passing numbers) to 04 is that most of the league improved their QB position either by a QB getting healthy, a young guy getting better, someone getting revitalized in a new place, or by addition of new stars on the supporting cast (not to mention coaching changes).
(I apologize if this gets long)
New England: As was mentioned, Brady had his best supporting cast yet for his career, and finally an elite RB in Dillon. Cue the play action and big plays.
Buffalo: Bledsoe only showed marginal improvement, but now he had guys like McGahee and Lee Evans on his offense
NY Jets: Pennington stayed healthy this year and was better than the mix of Vinny and an injured Chad in 03
Miami: One of the few teams to regress at QB from 03 to 04, as they went from bad Fiedler to worse Feeley
Pittsburgh: Out with crappy Maddox, in with Roethlisberger, the best rookie QB since Marino.
Baltimore: Boller was a rookie in 03, so he showed a little bit of improvement in 04.
Cincinnati: Actually had a regression, as Palmer in his first year of playing didn't do as well as Kitna, who had his career year in 03.
Cleveland: Slight decline as they had Garcia/McCown instead of Holcomb/Couch.
Indianapolis: Manning's best arsenal: the 3-WR set that stayed healthy, the best o-line he had for pass protection, and he had Clark and Pollard. Not to mention he played the favorable schedule that year (NFC North and AFC South were awful at defending the pass, and the AFC West was probably just as bad, which he also played). The reason Culpepper's numbers are closest is that he also played those two divisions that year.
Houston: David Carr actually had some pass protection, Andre Johnson, Gaffney and Davis. The best year of his career.
Jacksonville: Leftwich was a rookie in 03, got better his 2nd year.
Tennessee: A regression, as McNair couldn't stay healthy. Though Volek came in run n shoot style and didn't do so bad late in the year.
San Diego: Brees found a little known guy named Antonio Gates over and over and that was critical to his success. He's sustained a high level of play for 4 years now.
Kansas City: Just another big year for the Chiefs offense and Trent Green.
Oakland: They went from an injured Rich Gannon/Tuiososopo/Rick Mirer crapfest to the average Kerry Collins. That is better.
Denver: Jake Plummer was probably better in 03, but he had a solid year in 04 too. Last time Ashley Lelie looked really good.
Philadelphia: TO makes McNabb very elite, no question about that.
NY Giants: Warner/Eli was marginal improvement over a poor Kerry Collins 03 season.
Washington: Regressed as Brunell had the worst year of his career and Ramsey was better in 03.
Dallas: Vinny is more capable of putting up numbers than Quincy Carter.
Atlanta: Vick was injured in 03 and they had awful QB play in his place. He was healthy for 04.
Carolina: Jake Delhomme improved off his playoff run in his 2nd real year of being a starter.
Tampa Bay: Went from a turnover prone Brad johnson in 03 to an efficient Brian Griese.
New Orleans: Brooks regressed, was better in 03 (his best season)
San Francisco: Regressed from Garcia to Rattay
Arizona: Josh McCown was better than Jeff Blake.
St. Louis: Bulger threw less picks and was better in 04. Steven Jackson's first season.
Seattle: Hasselbeck actually played better in 03.
Green Bay: Favre's running game/defense wasn't as good in 04, so he took advantage of the soft schedule (especially the Vikings and Colts) and had a nice year.
Minnesota: Already mentioned the schedule for Culpepper having a dominant year.
Detroit: Joey Harrington now had Roy Williams and Kevin Jones to lead the team as top receiver and rusher.
Chicago: They had a bunch of garbage both years. It's Chicago, enough said.
So I think at least 2/3rds of the league did some serious improving to their passing game from 03 to 04.
Posted on 25-Jun-08 at 2:54 pm | PermalinkI would love to see a one-year wonder list. Similar to Rypien's first-to-worst, it would be interesting to see how season's like Jeff Garcia and Don Majkowski(1990?) would fit in. Maybe single-season performance most distant from the mean of their performances?
Posted on 26-Jun-08 at 11:44 am | PermalinkChase---You ask- "Who ranks as the Top Regular Season QB in NFL History"? Shouldn't that read: Who ranks as the Top Reg. season QB in NFL History BASED ON THE CRITERIA THAT I CHOSE TO LOOK AT ? If you examine everything that a QB gets credit for (by the NFL office), then it seems like it would have to be Brett Favre as the BEST EVER in the Reg. season. Consider this: Favre led his Team to more wins than anybody, he's tied with Montana for leading his Team to 11 Playoffs, he holds all of the major Career Passing Records, he owns multiple MVP awards, and he has that incredible Consecutive Starts Streak. NOBODY else can match Favre's RESUME.
Posted on 26-Jun-08 at 4:41 pm | PermalinkDenny - Typical comments from a Favre fan. This list is "Best QB," not most successful from the league's point of view. Trent Dilfer has a ring and I don't think even you will argue he should top the list - he had a phenomenal defense and his team was "led" to the championship by defensive players, not him. Marino never got the support from a running game or defense that many "championship" quarterbacks have had, Dilfer, Brad Johnson, etc. Just enjoy the list with the best qb in history at the top!!
Posted on 26-Jun-08 at 6:08 pm | PermalinkPhinfan---Just for the record, I'm a John Unitas fan, but more than that I'm just a football fan. You really got off-topic with most of your post. Tell me which facts about Favre are WRONG, or else give me FACTS and STATS about Marino that are even BETTER than those that I posted about Favre.
Posted on 26-Jun-08 at 7:26 pm | PermalinkThere are so many things to look at when choosing the "Best" QB.
Personally I would have to say Manning is the greatest to play the game. He hasn't quite the years yet to over take Favre and Marino's career numbers but season after season he is one of, if not the best QB in the league.
As far as regular season number Marino was better the Favre.
TD% the same, Marino had a better int%, a better y/c and a higher qb rating.
Manning beats all these numbers though.
Posted on 04-Sep-08 at 1:44 am | Permalinkthe 5 best qb's ever
Posted on 12-Dec-08 at 10:32 am | Permalink1. johnny unitas
2. joe montana
3. john elway
4. otto graham
5. dan marino
Look at Kurt Warner's season of 1999, basically he was in his rookie season, the only QB ever to throw for over 40 tds in a season, win NFL MVP, Super Bowl MVP and win the Super Bowl. That has to be the best single season for a NFL QB hands down no contest. Who else has done that all in one single season? No one has!!!
Posted on 31-Dec-08 at 6:39 am | PermalinkList of players with an AP MVP and SB MVP in the same season:
Kurt Warner (1999)
Steve Young (1994)
Emmitt Smith (1993)
Joe Montana (1989)
Terry Bradshaw (1989)
Bart Starr (1966)
Warner, Young and Montana easily led the league in QB Value as described in this post. Bradshaw ranked fifth in value, behind Staubach, Manning, Fouts and Sipe. Staubach had one of his typical great years but didn't have a career year. This was the best year of Archie's career after adjusting for era, as '78 was really the last season in the dead ball era. League average was 3.66 ANY/A and it's never been below four since. This was also Fouts' first breakout season. Suffice it to say, this was a close call but I can't kill the voters for giving Bradshaw the award.
Starr and Dawson were a dead hit statistically, but only because Starr few so many passes. Starr was clearly better on a per attempt basis. Note: sack data is not included here, which may be relevant in breaking any tie.
Posted on 31-Dec-08 at 11:17 am | PermalinkI really liked your methodology on how you came to your conclusions, but I believe that Young should be #1 and that Marino is ranked too high. Contrary to popular opinion, it was "easy" to put up prolific passing stats in the 1980s, yet Marino only passed the 100 qb rating barrier once. Young qb rating From 1991-1998 was 102.4 while the league average in that period was 77.3.
Posted on 17-May-09 at 11:57 pm | PermalinkAnother argument for Farve is he won a lot of games with mediocre teams... how many hall of famers did Farve play with? uummmm
Posted on 28-Sep-09 at 3:27 am | Permalinki cant believe some of u idiots rank QBs based on SB rings! SBs are won by teams,not individuals!some of the worst QBs have a ring or 2, Dan Marino is the greatest ever! bar none!
Posted on 04-Oct-09 at 11:32 pm | Permalinkwhat seperates the great QBs from the good is performing at a high level with not much around you,take some of these QBs talent away & see what they do then. my grandma coulda won titles with those 49er teams & for Steve Young to even be mentioned on a list is a complete joke & insult to the greats! the guy only played 3 full seasons in a 15 year career!
Posted on 04-Oct-09 at 11:40 pm | PermalinkP Manning is strictly a system/timing QB & thats it! the guy works his tail off with his WRs,yeah! but thats because he has to cause he dont have the god given talent that the greats have,hes a very smart QB,but not great! good! but not great!
Posted on 04-Oct-09 at 11:44 pm | Permalink& J Elway is a joke also!Denver run T Davis in the ground & ruined his career, T Davis is the reason that Elway won those 2 SBs but Elway got all the credit & the HOF! shortened T Davis career & he'll never make the HOF because of it! J Elway,P Manning,W Moon,B Roethlisberger & D Mcnabb are the most overrated ever! do a top 10 on most overrated,jus gave u the top 5
Posted on 04-Oct-09 at 11:52 pm | PermalinkThe only thing i could come up with for J Montana to be a top 10 QB was his coolness in pressure situations but far as his passing skills,please! the guy is way overrated in that category!!!
Posted on 04-Oct-09 at 11:56 pm | Permalink1.D Marino
Posted on 05-Oct-09 at 12:08 am | Permalink2.T Brady
3.B Favre
4.J Unitas
5.D Brees
6.D Fouts
7.T Bradshaw
8.J Kelly
9.A Manning
10.R Staubach
He'll id have SB rings if i had played on those 49er teams in the 80's, probably the grestest teams ever! 49ers had no weaknesses, the def was even great! team was loaded with talent! B Walsh also said of D Marino
Posted on 05-Oct-09 at 12:16 am | Permalink''heres the perfect QB'' & that from the man who drafted & coached J Montana
its alot easier to put up passing numbers in todays pass happy league! defenders cant breathe on WRs anymore & alot of games are inside,P Manning only plays like 3 or 4 games all year outside! While D Marino was setting all those records he was playing like 1 game all year inside, great QBs perform great in any type of weather! P Manning has never had a good game under bad conditions, jus another reason he shouldnt hold the title of great!!!!
Posted on 05-Oct-09 at 12:23 am | Permalinkit is set up the last 10 years for QBs & offenses to have great years!if D Marino were playing today hed put records out of reach & win SBs with not much help on offense, all he ever needed was a defense, if he would have had a great defense, he would have titles! thats a fact!!
Posted on 05-Oct-09 at 12:27 am | Permalink